{"id":14239,"date":"2019-01-06T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-01-05T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/8a98d62492\/"},"modified":"2019-01-23T10:51:45","modified_gmt":"2019-01-23T02:51:45","slug":"8a98d62492","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=14239","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7ea2\u5229\u300b\u4f5c\u8005\u53c8\u51fa\u65b0\u4e66\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"bpp-post-content\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><img class=\"\" style=\"width: 556px;height: 861px\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma5-1546779606.jpeg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><span>\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5916\u8058\u6559\u6388\u3001\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u00b7\u4f69\u5947\uff08Scott E Page\uff09<\/span>\u5728Coursera\u4e0a\u5f00\u8bbe\u4e86\u4e00\u95e8\u540d\u53eb <em>Model Thinking<\/em> \u7684\u8bfe\u7a0b\u3002\u8fd9\u95e8\u8bfe\u4ee5\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u7814\u7a76\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u5341\u4f59\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u91cf\u63a8\u6f14\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<span>\u4f69\u5947\u6559\u6388\u8fd8\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u591a\u672c\u7545\u9500\u4e66\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982<a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247493294&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0661f59cb48309f32f08364845ba47c9&amp;chksm=e897bc23dfe03535f5c21b1e1b837d655b53a78ed0448d4f3d62a56232de69d99c11db1ebc0d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\">\u300a\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7ea2\u5229\u300b<\/a>\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c\u4f69\u5947\u6559\u6388\u521b\u9020\u6027\u5730\u63d0\u51fa\uff1a<span>\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u806a\u660e\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u667a\u5546\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8ba4\u77e5\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><strong><img class=\"\" style=\"width: 238px;height: 333px\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma7-1546779606.jpeg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><strong><span><span><\/span>\u5bc6\u897f\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u00b7\u4f69\u5947\uff08Scott E Page\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><span>\u4f69\u5947<\/span>\u6559\u6388<span>\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u8bfe\u7a0b\u64b0\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u539a\u539a\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66<em><span>The Model Thinker<\/span><\/em>\uff0c<\/span>\u57282018\u5e7411\u6708\u4efd\u51fa\u7248\u3002\u5168\u4e66\u5206\u4e3a29\u7ae0\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ae0\u90fd\u5e72\u8d27\u6ee1\u6ee1\u3002\u4e66\u4e2d\u4e0d\u6b62\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fd8\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u4f7f\u7528\u591a\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u5206\u6790\u73b0\u5b9e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px\">\u4e16\u754c\u592a\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u5728\u4ece\u4fe1\u606f\u5230\u667a\u6167\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u9636\u68af\u3002<span>\u6574\u7406<\/span>\u6570\u636e\u3001\u63d0\u53d6\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u6a21\u6765\u53bb\u4f2a\u5b58\u771f\uff1b\u6839\u636e\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5f97\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u5927\u5c40\u3001\u65b0\u60c5\u51b5\u6216\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53bb\u4ea7\u751f\u77e5\u8bc6\uff1b\u800c\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u4f55\u65f6\u4f55\u5730\u8be5\u63d0\u53d6\u54ea\u4e9b\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u578b\u8ba9\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u663e\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u76847\u79cd\u4f5c\u7528\u5305\u62ec\u63a8\u7406\u3001\u89e3\u91ca\u3001\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u6c9f\u901a\u3001\u6307\u5bfc\u884c\u52a8\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u548c\u63a2\u7a76\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><img class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma10-1546779607.png\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u4e66\u8fd8\u6709\u300aAlgorithm to live by\u300b\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u8bb2\u7684\u662f\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u539f\u7406\u6307\u5bfc\u65e5\u7a0b\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4e66\u4e2d\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\u4e0b\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><img class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma7-1546779607.png\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u6ca1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u662f\u5177\u6709\u4e3b\u89c2\u80fd\u52a8\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4eba\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u591a\u6837\u6027\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4efb\u4f55\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u4e88\u4ee5\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u50cf\u548c\u771f\u5b9e\u56fd\u571f\u4e00\u6837\u5927\u7684\u5730\u56fe\u90a3\u6837\u5168\u9762\u5374\u65e0\u7528\u3002\u800c\u5bf9\u4eba\u7684\u7b80\u5316\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u903b\u8f91\u8d77\u70b9\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u6f14\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u574f\u5883\uff0c\u4f46\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e26\u67651+1 &gt; 2\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px\">\u5982\u4f55\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7b80\u5316<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><strong><span>\u6a21\u578b\u5b66\u4e60<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><strong><span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u5b66\u4e60\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8981\u641e\u6e05\u695a\u5176\u7ec4\u6210\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u751f\u6210\u903b\u8f91\u4e0e\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u7ed3\u6784\u9664\u4e86\u5b9e\u4f53\u548c\u5173\u7cfb\u8fd9\u4e9b\u663e\u5f0f\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4eba\u548c\u574f\u5883\u505a\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u4eba\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u6709\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u7406\u6027\u53ca\u8bb0\u5fc6\u529b\u8fd8\u662f\u53ea\u80fd\u670d\u4ece\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u3001\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u3001\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u7b49\u3002\u800c\u5173\u4e8e\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u73af\u5883\u662f\u5426\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u5c5e\u6027\u3001\u5404\u4e2a\u5c5e\u6027\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u5173\u3001\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u5c40\u90e8\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u3001\u662f\u5426\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u751f\u6210\u903b\u8f91\u5219\u662f\u4e00\u4e32\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\u548c\u63a8\u7b97\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u600e\u6837\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/span><span>\u81f3\u4e8e\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u91cd\u590d\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u53ef\u5d4c\u5957\u8fdb\u5176\u4ed6\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ec4\u6210\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6355\u6349\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px\">\u4eba\u7fa4\u5efa\u6a21<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u5173\u4e8e\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u662f\u4eba\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u4e09\u79cd\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff08normal\uff0clognormal\uff0cpower\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9<strong>\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027<\/strong>\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7c7b\u3002\u4e09\u79cd\u5206\u5e03\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u4eba\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u542b\u7740\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u4eba\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e4b\u524d\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u52a0\u548c\u6216\u4e58\u79ef\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7ec4\u5408\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u4e09\u79cd\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u5c3e\u6548\u5e94\u6bd4\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\u66f4\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"\" style=\"width: 540px;height: 215px\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma4-1546779607.jpg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><span>\u5bf9\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5206\u7c7b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5224\u5b9a\u4eba\u7fa4\u5927\u5c0f\u5bf9\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5047\u8bbe\u5b66\u4e60\u6210\u7ee9\u662f\u670d\u4ece\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b66\u6821\u8d8a\u5c0f\uff0c\u5176\u5e73\u5747\u6210\u7ee9\u5c31\u8d8a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u5168\u56fd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5c0f\u5b66\u6821\u5bb9\u6613\u57f9\u517b\u51fa\u597d\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u8f83\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5b66\u6821\u666e\u904d\u66f4\u9760\u8fd1\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u5728\u8003\u8651<strong>\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u7684\u4e92\u52a8<\/strong>\u65f6\uff0c\u4ece<strong>\u4e2a\u4eba<\/strong>\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u5916\u754c\u5bf9\u4f60\u51b3\u7b56\u53cd\u9988\u6301\u7eed\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff08\u6b63\u3001\u8d1f\u3001\u6216\u8005\u96f6\uff09\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6210\u4e09\u7c7b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5916\u754c\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u4f60\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u7ed9\u4e88\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u53bb\u4f30\u8ba1\u4f60\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7P\u503c\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5426\u968f\u673a\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7R square\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u3002<\/span><span>\u5982\u679c\u5916\u754c\u603b\u662f\u6ee1\u8db3\u4f60\uff0c\u90a3\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u5c31\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u53cd\u89c2\u300a\u9ed1\u955c\u300b\u7684\u5267\u60c5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e0d\u5c11\u60b2\u5267\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u79d1\u6280\u8fdb\u6b65\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5fc3\u60f3\u4e8b\u6210\u3002\u800c\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5219\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u5747\u8861\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u4eba\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u548c\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u548c<strong>\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4eba<\/strong>\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u5c06\u4eba\u770b\u6210\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ec4\u6210\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u8005\u7f51\u683c\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7f51\u683c\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u4eba\u653e\u7f6e\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u7ef4\u6216\u8005\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7684\u68cb\u76d8\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ea\u80fd\u548c\u9644\u8fd1\u6709\u9650\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e92\u52a8\uff1b\u6700\u5178\u578b\u7684\u7f51\u683c\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u751f\u547d\u6e38\u620f\uff08game of life\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><img class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma4-1546779608.gif\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u800c\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u81ea\u7531\u8fde\u63a5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4eba\u9645\u793e\u4ea4\u3001\u7f51\u9875\u95f4\u7684\u94fe\u63a5\u3001\u8bba\u6587\u95f4\u7684\u5f15\u7528\u3002\u800c\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u505a\u540c\u4e00\u7c7b\u7684\u4eba\u62bd\u8c61\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6574\u4f53\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u6001\uff08system dynamic\uff09\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><strong><img class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma10-1546779608.png\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><strong><span>\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684\u9762\u5305\u5e97\u548c\u6392\u961f\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u6210\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u5176\u5c5e\u6027\u662f\u5176\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u5b58\u91cf\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u5df2\u6709\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u3001\u9762\u5305\u5e08\u3001\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u8d44\u6e90\u6c60\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u662f\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u5176<strong>\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u5c06\u4eba\u5206\u6210\u51e0\u7c7b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u4eba\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u75be\u75c5\u6216\u8005\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><span>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f15\u5165\u4eba\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5047\u5b9a\u4eba\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9600\u503c\uff08threshold\uff09\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u8db3\u591f\u5f3a\u70c8\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u88ab\u8eab\u8fb9\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><span>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f15\u5165\u5f85\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4eba\u7684\u504f\u597d\u5206\u4e3aspatial\uff08\u79bb\u81ea\u5df1\u8d8a\u8fd1\u8d8a\u597d\uff09\u548chedonic\uff08\u8d8a\u591a\u8d8a\u597d\uff09\uff0c\u518d\u7ed3\u5408\u4e0a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u9488\u5bf9\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6309\u7167\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u5982\u679c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u8db3\u591f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u63a2\u7d22\u672a\u6765\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u8db3\u591f\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u8ba9\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u63a8\u6f14\u91cd\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u76f4\u89c9\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u5bf9\u7684\uff0c\u518d\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4f60\u672c\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7406\u6240\u5e94\u5f53\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u4e92\u52a8\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\uff0c\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u94fe\u53cd\u6620\u4e86<strong>\u4e0d\u540c\u6b21\u4e92\u52a8\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u548c\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u6210\u662f\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u6301\u7eed\u4e92\u52a8\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u3002\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u4e92\u7684\u5751\u5bb3\uff0c\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u5f15\u5165\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684<span>\u4fe1\u53f7\u4f20\u9012\u6a21\u578b\uff08<\/span>cost signal\uff09\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u7fa4\u4f53\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u540d\u671b\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5408\u4f5c\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u51e0\u672c\u4e66\u4e5f\u8bb2\u4e0d\u5b8c\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c31\u53ea\u662f\u873b\u8713\u70b9\u6c34\u7684\u5e26\u8fc7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ea4\u5f80\u4e0d\u6b62\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd8\u6d89\u53ca\u5230<strong>\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5efa\u7acb<\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e2\u4f53\u5185\u5206\u914d\u6210\u529f\u7684\u679c\u5b9e\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u51b3\u5b9a\u96c6\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u534f\u8c03\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u504f\u597d\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u5217\u51fa\u4f60\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u9700\u8981\u6ee1\u8db3\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5982\u540c\u300a\u51e0\u4f55\u539f\u672c\u300b\u4e2d\u7684\u516c\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u8981\u7b80\u5355\u4e14\u7b26\u5408\u5e38\u8bc6\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u53bb\u5224\u65ad\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd9\u6837\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u6709\u65f6\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u6ee1\u8db3\u5168\u90e8\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u6743\u8861\u5230\u5e95\u8981\u6ee1\u8db3\u600e\u6837\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u65f6\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u6784\u5efa\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u590f\u666e\u5229\u503c\uff08Shapley Value\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u52a0\u5165\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e2\u4f53\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u5bf9\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u8d21\u732e\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u52a0\u5165\u987a\u5e8f\u4e0b\u5404\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u52a0\u548c\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u590f\u666e\u5229\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u56e2\u961f\u4e2d\u6709\u7684\u4eba\u5e94\u8be5\u62ff\u7684\u591a\u3002\u867d\u7136\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u8865\u8db3\u4e86\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u77ed\u677f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><strong><img class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma9-1546779608.png\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><strong><span>\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u60f3\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7816\u5934\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u7528\u9014\uff0c\u56fe\u4e2dA\u4e0eC\u90fd\u60f3\u51fa\u4e866\u4e2a\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u4f46A\u5e94\u8be5\u4ece\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u5956\u52b1\u5728\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u7ba1ABC\u4e09\u4eba\u8c01\u5148\u8bf4\uff0cA\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e30\u5bcc\u56e2\u961f\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u521b\u610f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4eba\u662f\u80fd\u591f<strong>\u4ece\u9519\u8bef\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60<\/strong>\u7684\u3002<em>The Model Thinker<\/em>\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u96be\u7684\u4e09\u7ae0\u56f4\u7ed5\u5b66\u4e60\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u5148\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e86\u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u793e\u4ea4\u5b66\u4e60\uff1a\u524d\u8005\u6839\u636e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6536\u76ca<span>\u6765\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5<\/span>\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5219\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bfc\u81f4\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5883\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u5728\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u6d41\u3002\u800c\u5f53\u6536\u76ca\u4e0d\u56fa\u5b9a\u65f6\uff0c\u591a\u81c2\u8d4c\u535a\u673a\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u80fd\u6307\u51fa\u4f60\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u5e73\u8861\u63a2\u7d22\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px\">\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u667a\u6167\uff1aGittins Index<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px\"><span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u8fd9\u91cc\u8f83\u4e3a\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u8bb2\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50 Gittins Index\uff0c\u7b97\u4f5c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6302\u4e00\u6f0f\u4e07\u7684\u8bfb\u4e66\u7b14\u8bb0\u7684\u6536\u5c3e\u3002\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u540c\u5b66\u53ef\u53bb\u4fee <em>Model Thinking<\/em> \u8fd9\u95e8 Coursera\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff0c\u8bfe\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u4e66\u4e2d\u6240\u8bb2\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>Gittins Index\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><span>\u4f60\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u56de\u5408\u83b7\u5f971000\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff0c90%\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u8bf7\u95ee\u4f60\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u62bd\u5956\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4ed8\u51fa\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/span><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u62bd\u5956\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u56de\u5408\u62bd\u5956\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u62bd\u5956\u4e2d\u4e86\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u9009\u8fd9\u4e2a\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u62bd\u4e2d\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u9009\u7a33\u59a5\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4f60\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u662f0.1\u00d71000+0.9\u00d7500\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f60\u613f\u610f\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u62bd\u5956\u673a\u4f1a\u4ed8\u51fa550\u5355\u4f4d\u3002Gittins Index \u5305\u542b\u4e86\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6743\u8861\u4e86\u63a2\u7d22\u4e0e\u5229\u7528\uff08explore and exploit\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px\">\u4ece\u6a21\u578b\u5230\u73b0\u5b9e<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u5728\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u7ae0\uff0c\u4e66\u4e2d\u7528\u5341\u4f59\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u73b0\u5b9e\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e3a\u4f55\u8d8a\u6f14\u8d8a\u70c8\uff1a\u6709\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u5bcc\u4eba\u4e3a\u4f55\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5bcc\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u79cd\u65cf\u95f4\u7684\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u8d8a\u62c9\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u5bd2\u95e8\u96be\u51fa\u8d35\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u6a21\u578b\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4e0d\u6b62\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ecf\u4e16\u6d4e\u6c11\u4e2d\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6e38\u620f\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u601d\u7ef4\u66f4\u6709\u8da3\u3002\u9605\u8bfb\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u60f3\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u80fd\u591f\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u6740\u4eba\u6e38\u620f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u94fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u6790\u524d\u540e\u53d1\u8a00\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u6295\u7968\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u591f\u5199\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u6765\u8bb2\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u684c\u6e38\u4e2d\u5e94\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u90a3\u624d\u771f\u7684\u6709\u8da3\u800c\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u4e86\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u90ed\u745e\u4e1c<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span>\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u6768\u6e05\u6021<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\">\n<p style=\"line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><span><\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247490941&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=b16955efc23a4435d13c3e8fa1c70c7e&amp;chksm=e89447f0dfe3cee6c2bb5610fd6417b035f8da368a48cb69d0eb4b6dc5d32f077c62c3ab04dd&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong>3\u5206\u949f\u5e26\u4f60\u4e86\u89e3\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u6a21\u7684\u672c\u8d28 |\u300a\u89c4\u6a21\u300b<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247489229&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e05fafc28a1c702e364a17f6213c80b9&amp;chksm=e8944c40dfe3c556a6a67eec688ba896ccfcef4fd1044627564e20ff5474b66a40431169eb45&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong>\u524d\u6cbf\u89e3\u8bfb\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u53ca\u5176\u5e94\u7528<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247492289&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=157d934c04da54f6992e3c13cdf63131&amp;chksm=e897b84cdfe0315abca2e3b2efab544e88b54842b65fdd22c258b6e353633b77d5eb60d06c8d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline\"><strong>\u7f51\u7edc\u793e\u56e2\u5212\u5206\u7b97\u6cd5\u5c45\u7136\u8fd8\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u533a\u57df\u5212\u5206\u4e89\u7aef<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247494252&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=7bad3c9ca14aa54d355feb923b2b7ad1&amp;chksm=e897b0e1dfe039f79633b9b91452cdba9b1d2312e8023db8f2e11f3ac8ebd92c190e71923859&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247490128&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=850f0cafbea16ba56d37409981de075a&amp;chksm=e89440dddfe3c9cb70e9f38b07071d81de2675af7e2a53a78e27dc7f7735ceb28c06a6b10808&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong>\u91cd\u5927\u7a81\u7834\uff1a\u6700\u8fd1\u90bb\u641c\u7d22\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u901a\u7528\u7b97\u6cd5<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247489560&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9d07c84830f0ba33e3f6267be5569bbd&amp;chksm=e8944295dfe3cb83e2df6bee72ab3e040b19183c1cc5733419d891879473b399cee8b1e87d17&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong>\u65b0\u6392\u5e8f\u7b97\u6cd5\uff1a\u4ece\u9e66\u9e49\u5544\u5e8f\u5230\u7ec8\u8eab\u6559\u804c<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247487778&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c2e77ec93213c4c63f57a777ff10e368&amp;chksm=e8944bafdfe3c2b9d66544dafe7403159473e8c94fd3bc513f5300c353bcec49c0c0b69797af&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong>\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><img class=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma1-1546779608.jpg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><span>\u96c6\u667a\u5b66\u56ed\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><span>https:\/\/campus.swarma.org<\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section class=\"\">\n<section class=\"\">\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"post-image\"><img class=\"__bg_gif\" width=\"100%\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.5px;width: 64px !important\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma7-1546779609.gif\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/div>\n<section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 0.5em;margin-left: 0.5em;line-height: 25.6px;text-align: center\">\n<section style=\"margin-right: 0.5em;margin-left: 0.5em;line-height: 25.6px\">\n<section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 0.5em;margin-left: 0.5em;font-size: 15px\">\n<section>\n<p><strong><span>\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8QQ\u7fa4\uff5c877391004<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span>\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 0.5em;margin-left: 0.5em\">\n<h1 style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;line-height: 1.75em\"><strong><strong><span><span>\u25c6<\/span><span>\u25c6<\/span><span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px\">\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px\">\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<section>\n<div class=\"post-image\"><img class=\"\" style=\"width: 156px !important\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/swarma9-1546779609.jpg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14px\">\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<blockquote class=\"keep-source\">\n<p>\u539f\u6587\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff08\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\uff09\uff1a<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?timestamp=1546779604&amp;src=3&amp;ver=1&amp;signature=Z4wG5EogPOEqQ2R6zKLQbBR2dlC2D2NZ1B0rlA5HPu3Hf8tLFELXtOZxH*E2Mz3h4FgF2M02lUKan42tO7*yzCehurGgnUkbAKwx1GN-BEyIdmSL3wBEc8cqc56Y-Hvg8*pzUQWuj9VZ-MNRS8BYUmvyDKWZhPZkjkle7sGRNIs=\">\u96c6\u667a<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5916\u8058\u6559\u6388\u3001\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u00b7\u4f69\u5947\uff08Scott E Page\uff09\u5728Coursera\u4e0a\u5f00\u8bbe\u4e86\u4e00\u95e8\u540d\u53eb Model Thinking \u7684\u8bfe\u7a0b\u3002\u8fd9\u95e8\u8bfe\u4ee5\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u7814\u7a76\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u5341\u4f59\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u91cf\u63a8\u6f14\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4f69\u5947\u6559\u6388\u8fd8\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u591a\u672c\u7545\u9500\u4e66\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u300a\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7ea2\u5229\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14240,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[25],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14239"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14239\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14240"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14239"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=14239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}