{"id":14490,"date":"2019-01-22T00:00:50","date_gmt":"2019-01-21T16:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/c440b7590d\/"},"modified":"2019-01-23T10:41:19","modified_gmt":"2019-01-23T02:41:19","slug":"c440b7590d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=14490","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad81.5\u00b0C\u8fd8\u662f2\u00b0C\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u4e0d\u540c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u300a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08<\/strong>Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5\u2103<\/strong>\uff09\u5c01\u9762 | \u6765\u6e90\uff1aIPCC<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7f16\u8bd1\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7ec4<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6765\u6e90\uff1aPhysics World<\/span><\/p>\n

\u539f\u9898\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 \u00b0C: the why, the what and the how<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h1>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u73b0\u5728\u6e29\u5ea6\u9ad81.5\u2103\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u53f0\u98ce\u6216\u98d3\u98ce\u5417\uff1f\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u9ad8\u5c71\u51b0\u5ddd\u878d\u5316\uff1f\u5168\u7403\u53c8\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u4f1a\u906d\u53d7\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u4e0e\u7cae\u98df\u51cf\u4ea7\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

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2018\u5e7410\u6708\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\uff0cIPCC\uff09\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u5176\u6700\u65b0\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5\u2103<\/em>\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u62a5\u544a\u9898\u76ee\uff1aGlobal Warming of 1.5 \u00baC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u62a5\u544a\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u8fd9\u4e00\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5148\u671f\u6784\u60f3\u6e90\u81ea2015\u5e7412\u6708\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8fbe\u6210\u7684\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\uff08Paris Agreement<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c195\u4e2a\u7f14\u7ea6\u65b9\u4e00\u81f4\u540c\u610f\uff0c\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5347\u6e29\u5e45\u5ea6\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u8f83\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u4e4b\u524d\u6c34\u5e732\u2103\u4ee5\u5185\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u4e25\u683c\uff0c\u5c06\u76ee\u6807\u5b9a\u5728\u6700\u591a\u5347\u9ad81.5\u2103\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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1850\u5e74\u52302012\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8ddd\u5e73\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u57281961-1990\u5e74\u95f4 | \u6765\u6e90\uff1aIPCC_AR5_SPM<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u5728\u5df4\u9ece\u5927\u4f1a\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5927\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u5e74\u4efd\u65f6\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u59822050\u5e74\u30012080\u5e74\u62162100\u5e74\u3002\u201d<\/span>\u800c\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u4f7f\u5f97\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u91cd\u65b0\u8003\u8651\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u601d\u8003\uff1a\u5f53\u5347\u6e29\u81f3\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u6e29\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u201d\u300a1.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u9996\u5e2d\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u7684Kristie Ebi \u6307\u51fa\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5173\u6ce8\u5347\u6e292\u2103\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u5ea6\u8fd8\u4e0d\u591f\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u540c\u4e3a\u300a1.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u4f5c\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u3001\u6765\u81ea\u82f1\u56fd\u5e03\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5927\u5b66<\/span>\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u5bb6 Dann Mitchell \u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u8ba9\u5f88\u591a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u731d\u4e0d\u53ca\u9632\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u505a\u4e86\u8bf8\u591a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f46\u9488\u5bf9\u7684\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u4e09\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u5f85\u89e3\u51b3<\/span>\uff0cDann Mitchell\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u5728\u5047\u8bbe\u62e5\u6709\u5c06\u5347\u6e29\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728\u8f83\u4f4e\u9650\u503c\u6240\u9700\u7684<\/span>\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u529b\u91cf\u548c\u5927\u91cf\u6295\u5165\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c1.5\u2103\u9650\u503c\u80fd\u5426\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f80\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u6392\u653e\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u78b3\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u76f8\u5173\u90e8\u95e8\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u533a\u522b\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e09\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c06\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u5236\u57281.5\u2103\u7684\u6240\u9700\u82b1\u9500\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u591a\u5347\u9ad80.5\u2103\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4ec0\u4e48<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u590f\u5b63\u5c06\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>\u3002\u4e3a\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u5fb7\u56fd\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u666e\u6717\u514b\u6c14\u8c61\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684 Laura Suarez \u4e0e\u5176\u540c\u4e8b\u5229\u7528\u8026\u5408\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u6765\u6a21\u62df\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6c14\u5019\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u57281.5\u2103\u4e0e2\u2103\u5347\u6e29\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u8fd0\u884c\u3002Suarez\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u2018\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u96c6\u5408\u2019\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5730\u7403\u60c5\u666f\u88ab\u6a21\u62df\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u5e76\u5f97\u51fa\u591a\u8fbe\u4e0a\u767e\u79cd\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5730\u7403\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fd9\u4e00\u6df7\u6c8c\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5f53\u6c14\u6e29\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff08a\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u65b9\u5dee\uff08b\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u4e0e\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u65b9\u5dee\u540c\u65f6\uff08c\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u65f6\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u5bf9\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u5f71\u54cd | \u6765\u6e90\uff1aIPCC_AR5_WG1_Chapter1<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u53e6\u5916\uff0cSuarez \u4e0e\u5176\u540c\u4e8b\u8fd8\u9610\u91ca\u4e86\uff1a\u590f\u5b63\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u73b0\u8c61\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u6b27\u6d32\u5927\u9646\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5e76\u4e0d\u5747\u5300<\/strong>\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0a\u6587\u4e2d\u6700\u6781\u7aef\u708e\u70ed\u7684\u5929\u6c14\uff0c<\/span>\u6bcf20\u5e74\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6b21\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u4e48\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61<\/span>\u5bf9\u5357\u6b27\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u6bcf100\u5e74\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6b21\u70ed\u6d6a\u7684\u9891\u7387\u5bf9\u4e2d\u6b27\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u57282\u2103\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u4e0b\uff0c\u5357\u6b27\u4e0e\u4e1c\u6b27\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u6e29\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\u4e9b\uff0c\u6bd41.5\u2103\u9650\u503c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5927\u7ea6\u9ad81.5\u2103\uff1b\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u6ce2\u5170\u906d\u53d7\u4e25\u91cd\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u9ad8\u6e29\u6781\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6bd41.5\u2103\u9650\u503c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u8fd8\u8981\u9ad83\u2103\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\n

\n
\n
<\/p>\n

\u76ee\u6807\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u300a1.5\u2103\u5347\u6e29\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f46\u4e86\u89e3\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e1.5\u2103\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u8fd8\u5728\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u5bf9\u5982\u4f55\u51cf\u7f13\u4ee5\u53ca\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u660e\u786e\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u62a5\u544a\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u7ae0\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u534f\u8c03\u5458\u3001\u6765\u81ea\u5965\u5730\u5229\u56fd\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u7cfb\u7edf\u5206\u6790\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f26\u6566\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7684<\/span><\/span>Joeri Rogelj \u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\u5230\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u4e00\u62a5\u544a\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u53bb\u4e86\u89e3\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u5b9e\u73b0\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c2015\u5e74\u5b9a\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u53d1\u5c55\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7279\u522b\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u8fd8\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e86\u5f53\u6c14\u5019\u9002\u5e94\u4e0e\u51cf\u7f13\u63aa\u65bd\u843d\u5b9e\u5230\u4f4d\u65f6\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u590d\u6742\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u505a\u67d0\u4e9b\u51b3\u5b9a\u65f6\u4f1a\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6743\u8861\u53d6\u820d\u3002<\/span><\/strong>Ebi \u8fd9\u6837\u89e3\u91ca\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6c14\u5019\u51cf\u7f13\u653f\u7b56\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6210\u672c\u65f6\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u68c0\u67e5\u534f\u540c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u67d0\u4e00\u9879\u5bf9\u5065\u5eb7\u6709\u5229\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u51cf\u7f13\u653f\u7b56\u540c\u65f6\u5f80\u5f80\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b9e\u65bd\u800c\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e00\u5b9a\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u521d\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u2103\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u76ee\u6807\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u663e\u8457\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6548\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/strong>2018\u5e745\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u5728 Nature \u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u2103\u800c\u4e0d\u662f2\u2103\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u76ee\u6807\u65f6\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u8282\u7701\u6574\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c20\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6587\u7ae0\u7531\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7684 Marshall Burke \u4e0e\u5176\u540c\u4e8b\u5171\u540c\u5b8c\u6210\uff08\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7ed9\u5168\u7403GDP\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u635f\u5931 | \u6765\u6e90\uff1aNature<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aLarge potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-018-0071-9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u80fd\u5426\u5b8c\u62101.5\u2103\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u5fc3\u5b58\u8d28\u7591\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u6765\u81ea\u82f1\u56fd\u5e03\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5927\u5b66\u7684 Paul Valdes \u5982\u662f\u8bf4\uff1a<\/span>\u201c\u6211\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u6211\u5f88\u6000\u7591\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u786e\u4fe1\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u8fbe\u52302\u2103\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u4ed8\u51fa\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u90a3\u4e48\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9\u8fd0\u6c14\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7279\u522b\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u50cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ed9\u4e86 Valdes \u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u201c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6c61\u67d3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u8fd8\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u660e\u786e\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u6765\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f46Valdes\u4ecd\u7136\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8ff7\u604b\u5347\u6e29\u76ee\u6807\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6709\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u5bb3\u6015\u8fd9\u4e9b\u786e\u5b9a\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4f1a\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\u5982\u679c\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e29\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e862\u2103\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5904\u4e8e\u2018\u5371\u9669\u7684\u2019\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5347\u6e29\u4f4e\u4e8e2\u2103\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u90fd\u6ca1\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u7136\u800c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u2018\u5371\u9669\u7684\u2019\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u636e\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e25\u5cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u50cf1.5\u2103\u62162\u2103\u90a3\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edd\u5bf9\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u975e\u9ed1\u5373\u767d\u7684\u503c\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u8bbe\u6cd5\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u5173\u952e\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u5bf9\u5347\u6e29\u66f4\u654f\u611f\u3002<\/span><\/strong>Rogelj \u8bf4\uff1a\u201c<\/span>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6587\u732e\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u4fee\u6b63\u5bf9\u51b0\u5ddd\u6d88\u9000\u4e0e\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u7740\u5347\u6e29\u5bf9\u51b0\u5ddd\u6d88\u9000\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u66f4\u5f3a\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1900-2012\u5e74\u95f4\u5317\u51b0\u6d0b\u590f\u5b63\u6d77\u51b0\u9762\u79ef\uff08\u767e\u4e07\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\uff09\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u9ad8\u5ea6\uff08\u6beb\u7c73\uff09\u7684\u53d8\u5316 | \u6765\u6e90\uff1aIPCC_AR5_SPM<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u6839\u636e\u300a1.5\u2103\u5347\u6e29\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b<\/span>\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6392\u653e\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u52302100\u5e74\u5168\u7403<\/span>\u6c14\u6e29\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u6bd4\u73b0\u5728\u5347\u9ad81\u2103\uff0c\u800c\u6bd4\u8f83\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5219\u5c06\u5347\u9ad84\u2103\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u540c\u6392\u653e\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b<\/span><\/strong>\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e29\u60c5\u51b5\u3002RCPs\uff08Representative Concentration Pathways\uff09\u4ee3\u88682100\u5e74\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e1750\u5e74\uff0c<\/span><\/strong>\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5730\u7403\u5bf9\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u63a5\u6536\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span>RCP2.6\u4e3a\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff0cRCP8.5\u4e3a\u6700\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/strong><\/span>| \u6765\u6e90\uff1aIPCC_AR5_SPM<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u540c\u6392\u653e\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0e\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002RCPs\u5b9a\u4e49\u89c1\u4e0a\u56fe\u56fe\u6ce8\u3002 | \u6765\u6e90\uff1aIPCC_AR5_Table SPM.2<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u201c\u4e00\u5207\u7167\u5e38\u201d\u76844\u2103\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\uff0c2\u2103\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u5c06\u4f1a\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/strong>2\u2103\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651\u624d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u300a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6846\u67b6\u516c\u7ea6\u4e13\u5bb6\u7ea7\u522b\u5bf9\u8bdd\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08UNFCCC Structured Expert Dialogue<\/em>\uff09\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c2\u2103\u5347\u6e29\u9650\u503c\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5347\u6e29\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0a\u9650\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u6267\u884c\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u5347\u6e29\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u8bdd\u6700\u597d\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u51b3\u5b9a\u5e94\u8be5\u8d70\u54ea\u6761\u8def\u65f6\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u7684\u8981\u7d20\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u4ee5\u6743\u8861\u8003\u8651\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u8131\u78b3\uff08Carbonremoval\uff09\u6216\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u7a0b\uff08Geoengineering\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u627f\u8ba4\u5b88\u4e0d\u4f4f1.5\u2103\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5236\u5b9a\u8ba1\u5212\u6765\u8ba9\u6e29\u5ea6\u5c3d\u5feb\u964d\u4e0b\u6765\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u770b\u8fc7\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u597d\u597d\u60f3\u60f3\u5e94\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u53bb\u505a\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aKate Ravilious<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8bd1\uff1a\u738b\u6c5f\u660a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u6768\u6e05\u6021<\/span><\/p>\n

\u300a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/<\/span><\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/physicsworld.com\/a\/the-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-the-why-the-what-and-the-how\/<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

Nature<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a2030\u5e74\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6392\u9664\u7532\u919b\u7b49\u975e\u81ea\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u957f\u5bff\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Geoffrey West\uff1a\u751f\u7269\u4f53\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u751f\u547d\u3001\u751f\u957f\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u8bba\u5728\u751f\u7269\u5b66\uff1a\u79cd\u7fa4\u7ed3\u6784\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u81ea\u7136\u9009\u62e9<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8QQ\u7fa4\uff5c877391004<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

\u25c6<\/span>\u25c6<\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n

\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u539f\u6587\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff08\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\uff09\uff1a\u96c6\u667a<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u300a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5\u2103\uff09\u5c01\u9762 | \u6765\u6e90\uff1aIPCC \u5bfc\u8bed \u8054\u5408\u56fd\u4e0d\u4e45\u524d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u300a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u5185\u5e94\u8be5\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u5e45\u5ea6\u63a7\u5236\u57281.5\u2103\u5185\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u76842\u2103\u30020.5\u2103\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14491,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[17],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14490"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14490"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14490\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14490"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=14490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}