{"id":14522,"date":"2019-01-26T00:00:50","date_gmt":"2019-01-25T16:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/0155a8ef20\/"},"modified":"2019-01-27T18:22:39","modified_gmt":"2019-01-27T10:22:39","slug":"0155a8ef20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=14522","title":{"rendered":"Nature\u5b50\u520a\uff1a\u5220\u5e16\u65e0\u7528\uff0c8\u4f4d\u597d\u53cb\u63a8\u6587\u5c31\u80fd\u66b4\u9732\u4f60\u662f\u8c01\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5bfc\u8bed<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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2019\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u4e00\u7bc7\u53d1\u8868\u5728 Nature Human Behaviour \u7684\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u7ebf\u4e0a\u597d\u53cb\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1aInformation flow reveals prediction limits in online social activity<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-018-0510-5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n<\/h1>\n

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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

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    \n
  1. \n

    \u53ea\u4f7f\u7528\u67d0\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

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  3. \n

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    <\/span><\/p>\n

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    <\/span><\/p>\n

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    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/p>\n

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    \n

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    <\/span><\/p>\n

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    \n

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    <\/span><\/p>\n

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    \u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u5b58\u5728\u4e0a\u9650<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

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    <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

    \u91c7\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u6570\u636e\u65f6\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u53f3\u4e0a\u89d2\u4e3a\u597d\u53cb\u6570\u91cf\u8d8b\u4e8e\u65e0\u7a77\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u7684\u6781\u9650\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5f53\u597d\u53cb\u6570\u91cf\u975e\u5e38\u591a\uff0c\u8d8b\u4e8e\u65e0\u7a77\u65f6<\/span>\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u597d\u53cb\u63a8\u6587\u6570\u636e\u7684\u201c\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u201d\u4f1a\u670960.8%\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u800c<\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u7528\u6237\u548c\u597d\u53cb\u63a8\u6587\u6570\u636e\u7684\u201c\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u4e0a\u9650\u662f64%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5f53\u7136\u4eba\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u65e0\u7a77\u591a\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u9650\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u6700\u591a\u53ea\u80fd\u62e5\u6709150\u4f4d\u8054\u7cfb\u7d27\u5bc6\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u7528\u6237150\u4f4d\u597d\u53cb\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u201c\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fbe\u523060.3%\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u52a0\u4e0a\u7528\u6237\u672c\u4eba\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u63a8\u6587\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u5c06\u4f1a\u8fbe\u523063.5%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

    \u6839\u636e\u9093\u5df4\u6570\u7406\u8bba\uff08Dunbar’s number\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u719f\u4eba\u6570\u91cf\u4e0a\u9650\u662f150\u4eba\uff0c\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5e38\u8054\u7cfb\u768414\u4e2a\u597d\u53cb\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u7814\u7a76\u65f6\u628a\u7528\u6237\u81ea\u8eab\u4e5f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u53cb\u5904\u7406\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    <\/p>\n

    \u5927V\u597d\u53cb\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u66b4\u9732\u670b\u53cb\u4fe1\u606f\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927 V \u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u90a3 Ta \u6cc4\u9732\u4f60\u4e2a\u4eba\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u666e\u901a\u670b\u53cb\u6cc4\u9732\u4f60\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8981\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7528\u6237 A \u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u5e38\u8054\u7cfb\u768414\u4f4d\u670b\u53cb\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u4f4d\u662f\u5927 V\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4f4d\u5927 V \u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7528\u6237 A \u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u4ed6\u768414\u4f4d\u6700\u5e38\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u597d\u53cb\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

    \u5206\u679013905\u4f4d\u7528\u6237\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5176\u8054\u7cfb\u4eba\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u9891\u6570\u5206\u5e03\u76f4\u65b9\u56fe<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8fd9927\u4e2a\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u768413905\u4eba\uff0c\u6709\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u5730\u4f4d\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e2d\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u4e24\u767e\u4f4d\u8054\u7cfb\u4eba\u7684\u666e\u901a\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u800c\u5c11\u91cf\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u8fbe\u4eba\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u4e0a\u5343\u4e2a\u8054\u7cfb\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5982\u679c\u53ea\u9009\u53d6\u7528\u6237\u4e00\u4f4d\u597d\u53cb\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u80fd\u5426\u9884\u6d4b\u8be5\u7528\u6237\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9927\u4e2a\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7528\u6237\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u4ec5\u4ec5\u9009\u53d6\u7528\u6237\u67d0\u4e00\u4f4d\u597d\u53cb\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u6570\u636e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u7528\u6237\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u670930%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u9009\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u597d\u53cb\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5bf9\u201c\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u201d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u7528\u5355\u4e00\u597d\u53cb\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7814\u7a76\u67d0\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u597d\u53cb\u4e0d\u540c\u793e\u4ea4\u5730\u4f4d\u5bf9\u8be5\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n

    \u5982\u679c\u9009\u53d6\u7684\u8fd9\u4f4d\u597d\u53cb\u662f\u793e\u4ea4\u8fbe\u4eba\uff0c\u8054\u7cfb\u4eba\u6570\u91cf\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u201c\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u201d\u5c31\u5f88\u4f4e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9009\u53d6\u7684\u8fd9\u4f4d\u7528\u6237\u597d\u53cb\u662f\u666e\u901a\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e24\u767e\u4eba\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u51e0\u5341\u4eba\u65f6\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u201c\u7528\u6237\u63a8\u6587\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u201d\u5c31\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5176\u5b9e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\uff0c<\/span>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u67d0\u4e00\u4f4d\u597d\u53cb\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u793e\u4ea4\u8fbe\u4eba\uff0c\u90a3 Ta \u6295\u653e\u5728\u4f60\u8eab\u4e0a\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u4e00\u822c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u592a\u591a\uff0c<\/span>\u4f60\u5728 Ta \u7684\u63a8\u6587\u4e2d\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5927V \u597d\u53cb\u53cd\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u66b4\u9732\u4f60\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n

    \n

    \n

    \n
    \n
    <\/p>\n

    \u5982\u679c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6253\u901a<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u4e5f\u8bb8\u5c06\u518d\u65e0\u9690\u79c1\u53ef\u8a00<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u5728\u4eab\u53d7\u4e0e\u670b\u53cb\u6c9f\u901a\u3001\u83b7\u53d6\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4fbf\u5229\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5728\u627f\u62c5\u7740\u9690\u79c1\u6cc4\u9732\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    \u867d\u7136\u5728\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5386\u53f2\u63a8\u6587\u5185\u5bb9\u9884\u6d4b\u540e\u7eed\u63a8\u6587\uff0c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u670960%\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u4f46\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u5177\u4f53\u63a8\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u4e0d\u591f\u6df1<\/span>\u3002\u6839\u636e\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u597d\u53cb\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f83\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u731c\u6d4b\u51fa\u7528\u6237\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3001\u670b\u53cb\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u5e38\u53bb\u5730\u70b9\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u6027\u53d6\u5411\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    \u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u51e0\u4f4d\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u6b63\u5728\u8c0b\u6c42\u4ece Facebook \u548c Google \u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u83b7\u5f97\u7528\u6237\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u63a8\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u662f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u597d\u53cb\u63a8\u6587\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4ece\u591a\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6784\u5efa\u8d77\u7528\u6237\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b9e\u9645\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    \u5982\u679c\u80fd\u591f\u540c\u65f6\u83b7\u5f97\u67d0\u4e00\u7528\u6237\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5b8c\u6574\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5f62\u8c61\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u96be\u4e8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    \u4e00\u9762\u5fae\u535a\uff0c\u4e00\u9762\u670b\u53cb\u5708\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u516c\u53f8\u4eec\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6253\u901a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4f60\u5c06\u4f1a\u4ee5\u600e\u6837\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u670b\u53cb\u9762\u524d\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    \u7ec6\u601d\u6781\u6050\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

    https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-018-0513-2<\/span><\/p>\n

    https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-018-0510-5<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \n

    \n

    \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aElena<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5ba1\u6821\uff1a\u674e\u5468\u56ed<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u6768\u6e05\u6021<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

    \n

    \n

    \n

    \n
    \n
    <\/p>\n

    \u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u201c\u652f\u914d\u201d\u4e0b\u7684\u7f51\u6e38\u73a9\u5bb6\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

    \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u7684\u4eba\u5fae\u4fe1\u597d\u53cb5000\u800c\u4f60\u53ea\u6709500\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

    \u5982\u4f55\u6839\u636e\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u8bc6\u522b\u6781\u7aef\u6050\u6016\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5f62\u6210\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

    Nature\uff1a\u4f60\u7684\u597d\u53cb\u5217\u8868\u91cc\u6f5c\u4f0f\u7740\u591a\u5c11\u673a\u5668\u4eba\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

    \u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

    \n

    \n

    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n

    \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8QQ\u7fa4\uff5c877391004<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n

    \u25c6<\/span>\u25c6<\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n

    \u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

    \u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
    \"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

    \u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

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