{"id":1511,"date":"2018-06-13T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-06-12T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/%swarma-paper%\/"},"modified":"2018-12-06T15:08:43","modified_gmt":"2018-12-06T07:08:43","slug":"%e5%b0%8f%e7%be%a4%e4%bd%93%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e6%94%b9%e5%8f%98%e5%a4%a7%e4%b9%a0%e4%bf%97%ef%bc%9f-science-%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%e8%ae%ba%e6%96%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=1511","title":{"rendered":"\u5c0f\u7fa4\u4f53\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u5927\u4e60\u4fd7\uff1f | Science \u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u4e34\u754c\u7fa4\u4f53<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe1 \u793e\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\uff08A\uff09\u66ff\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u88ab100%\u793e\u4f1a\u4eba\u53e3\u6240\u63a5\u7eb3\u65f6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u4e3aN=1000\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4ea4\u6d41\u6570\u91cf\u4e3aT=1000\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4ea4\u6d41\u6570\u91cf\u4e3aM=12\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08B\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u503c\u88ab\u7ed8\u5236\u6210\u4e3a\u5173\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u8bb0\u5fc6\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u66f2\u7ebf\uff08\u5176\u4e2dN=1000\uff0cT=1000\uff09\u3002\u865a\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u53d1\u751f\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u9769\u65f6\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u6700\u5927\u6bd4\u91cd\uff0821%\uff09\u4e0e\u6700\u5c0f\u6bd4\u91cd\uff0825%\uff09\u3002\u867d\u7136\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5927\u5c0f\u4f1a\u968f\u7740M\u7684\u589e\u5927\u800c\u589e\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e3a\u51f9\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5728M>100\u65f6\u4ecd\u5c0f\u4e8e50%\u3002\u9644\u56fe\u4e3a\u589e\u52a0\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u5bf9\u5c11\u6570\u6c11\u65cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08C\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u5ea6\u5f71\u54cd\uff08M=12,T=1000\uff09\u3002\u5f53N<1000\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5fae\u5c0f\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u3002\u9634\u5f71\u90e8\u5206\u6307\u6210\u529f\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684C\u503c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u786e\u5b9a\u503c\u3002\u5728\u9634\u5f71\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0cC\u503c\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u9769\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8d8b\u8fd1\u4e8e1\uff1bC\u503c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u53d8\u9769\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\u51b3\u5b9a\uff1a\u8bb0\u5fc6\u957f\u5ea6M\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cfN\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u56fe1\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u968f\u7740\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u7684\u9884\u671f\u8bb0\u5fc6\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u5f53\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\u957f\u5ea6M<5\u65f6\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u8f83\u5c0f\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u8bb0\u5fc6\u957f\u5ea6\u8f83\u5927\uff0cM>100\u65f6\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4ecd\u5c0f\u4e8e\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cf\u768450%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u62e5\u6709\u60a0\u4e45\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4ecd\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f53\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cfN\u572820-100,000\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u592a\u5927\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u56fe1\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u5bf9\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cfN\u572820-1000\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u5fae\u5c0f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u91cf\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u793e\u4f1a\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cfN>1000\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u503c\u8d8b\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e0d\u53d7N\u53d6\u503c\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff08\u5177\u4f53\u89c1\u6587\u732e25\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

2.\u7f51\u7edc\u793e\u533a\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff1a\u8d85\u8fc725%\u5c31\u80fd\u5f15\u8d77\u6539\u53d8\uff1f<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/span>
<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u62db\u52df\u4e86194\u4e2a\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u5e76\u5c06\u4ed6\u4eec\u7f6e\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b[27\uff0c28]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span>\u7f51\u7edc\u793e\u533a\u7684\u968f\u673a\u914d\u5bf9<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u523010\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u7ebf\u4e0a\u5c0f\u7ec4\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5404\u5c0f\u7ec4\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u572820-30\u4eba\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u8f6e\u6570\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u5c0f\u7ec4\u7684\u6210\u5458\u90fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u914d\u5bf9\u5e76\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba9\u6bcf\u4e00\u5bf9\u6210\u5458\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u7269\u54c1\u8fdb\u884c\u547d\u540d\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u8138\uff09\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5728\u5373\u65f6\u8bed\u8a00\u9009\u62e9\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u534f\u8c03[20\uff0c25]\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6210\u5458\u8f93\u5165\u7684\u540d\u79f0\u76f8\u540c\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u534f\u8c03\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u6210\u529f\u5f97\u5230\u76f8\u5e94\u5956\u52b1\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u60e9\u7f5a\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u533a\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u8f6e\u968f\u673a\u7ec4\u5408\u914d\u5bf9\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e92\u52a8\u5e76\u4e92\u76f8\u534f\u8c03\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6fc0\u52b1\u6210\u5458\u53bb\u8fbe\u5230\u67d0\u9879\u5168\u5c40\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u914d\u5bf9\u4e2d\u53bb\u4e0e\u914d\u5bf9\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u5728\u534f\u8c03\u6210\u529f\u6216\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5f97\u5230\u5956\u52b1\u6216\u60e9\u7f5a(25)\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u5728\u5168\u4f53\u4eba\u6c11\u4e2d\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u516c\u7ea6\u6216\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u4e60\u4fd7\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u534f\u8c03\u5747\u8861\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u914d\u5bf9\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u53ea\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u548c\u914d\u5bf9\u8005\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7d2f\u8ba1\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u5956\u52b1\u4e5f\u4f1a\u76f8\u5e94\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u540e\u4f1a\u88ab\u5b89\u6392\u540c\u793e\u533a\u5185\u5176\u4ed6\u65b0\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u548c\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u56de\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u6001\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u4ea4\u6d41\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u793e\u533a\u6210\u5458\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0e\u5927\u591a\u533f\u540d\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u5458\u8fdb\u884c\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u804a\u5929\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5f15\u5bfc\u4ed6\u4eec\u63a5\u53d7\u793e\u533a\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e00\u81f4[20\uff0c29\uff0c30]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u8bbe\u60f3\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5e76\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u793e\u533a\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4e0e\u8c01\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u8054\u7cfb[9\uff0c20\uff0c23]\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7ec4\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e92\u52a8\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5c0f\u7ec4\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4e60\u4fd7\u7684\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u5c0f\u7ec4\u4e2d\u6240\u6709\u6210\u5458\u884c\u4e3a\u90fd\u4e00\u81f4[20\uff0c25]\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u5c0f\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u4e60\u4fd7\u88ab\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u5f15\u5165\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u540c\u76df\u8005<\/strong>\uff08\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7528\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u79cd\u4e60\u4fd7\u63a8\u7ffb\u5df2\u6709\u4e60\u4fd7[25]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe2 \u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u63a5\u7eb3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5bf9\u8c61\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u7070\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u5df2\u5efa\u7acb\u4e60\u4fd7\u7684\u666e\u53ca\u7387\uff1b\u9ed1\u7ebf\u4ee3\u8868\u66ff\u4ee3\u4e60\u4fd7\u3002\u5f53\u8d85\u8fc750%\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4eba\u53e3\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\uff0c\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u5217\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u5458\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5217\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u662f\u6210\u529f\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u5458\u3002\u5f53C\u5230\u8fbe\u793e\u4f1a\u4eba\u53e3\u768425%\u65f6\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u914d\u5bf9\u90fd\u6709N\/2\u6b21\u7684\u4e24\u4e24\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u914d\u5bf9\u4e2d\uff0c\u6210\u5458\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u4e92\u76f8\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe3 \u4ece\u6240\u6709\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08\u6a2a\u5750\u6807\u4e3a\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\uff08\u5360\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u91cd\uff09\uff0c\u7eb5\u5750\u6807\u4e3a\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u8f6e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u63a5\u53d7\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08\u7070\u8272\u7684\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u5728C<25%\u4e0b\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u5728C>25%\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u8fd8\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5177\u670995\uff05\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u5b9e\u7ebf\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dN=24\uff0cT=45\uff0cM=12\u3002\u7070\u8272\u533a\u57df\u8868\u793a1000\u6b21\u91cd\u590d\u5b9e\u9a8c\u768495\uff05\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u70b9\u5212\u7ebf\u8868\u793aC=25%\u3002\u6b64\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7ed3\u679c\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5468\u671f\u5185\uff08T<100\u4e2a\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u662f\u7279\u522b\u51c6\u786e\uff08C\u572820%\u523030%\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u53d8\u5316\uff09\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u5f53T>1000\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f83\u51c6\u786e\uff08\u5b9e\u7ebf\uff0c25\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u4f34\u968f\u8bd5\u56fe\u63a8\u7ffb\u5df2\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u89c4\u6a21\uff08C\uff09\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u4e8610\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7ec4\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ec4\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002 \u5728\u6240\u670910\u4e2a\u7ec4\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u90fd\u5728\uff0815\uff05<C <35\uff05\uff09\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe2\u548c\u56fe3\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u63a8\u7ffb\u5df2\u5efa\u7acb\u5747\u8861\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u60c5\u51b5\u3002 \u7531\u56fe\u53ef\u77e5\u7ed3\u679c\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff08N\u548cM\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u7ecf\u9a8c\u503c\uff09\uff0c\u5f53\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u8fbe\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u4eba\u53e3\u768425\uff05\u65f6\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u88ab\u89e6\u53d1\uff0c\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u6210\u529f\u6539\u53d8\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e94\u7ec4\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7edf\u8ba1\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ec4\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e2\u4f53\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e2\u4f53\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u4eba\u6570\u5360\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u91cdC<25%\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u56e2\u4f53\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u4eba\u6570\u5360\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u91cdC>25%\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u7ec4\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0cC<25%\u7684\u56e2\u4f53\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u5173\u6ce8\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u56de\u5f52\u5230\u4e86\u4e3b\u6d41\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u4e0a\u3002 \u6574\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e34\u65f6\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u53d8\u5316\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u4eba\u53e3\u5c11\u4e8e25\uff05\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u53ea\u67096\uff05\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u8f6e\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u62e5\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u4f46\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u5360\u6bd4\uff0825\uff05\u2264C\u226431\uff05\uff09\u5927\u4e00\u4e9b\u7684\u56e2\u4f53\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002 \u5728\u6b64\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u65b0\u4e60\u4fd7\u88ab\u56e2\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u8ba4\u53ef\uff08\u56fe2\u548c3\uff09\u3002 \u6240\u6709\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0cC\u226525\uff05\u7684\u56e2\u4f53\u8f83\u4e4b25\uff05\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u56e2\u4f53\uff0c\u4e3b\u6d41\u4e60\u4fd7\u66f4\u6613\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\uff08P = 0.01\uff0c\u79e9\u548c\u68c0\u9a8c\uff09\u3002 \u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\uff08\u5b9e\u9a8c1\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u65b0\u4e60\u4fd7\u7531\u4e0d\u88ab\u8ba4\u53ef\u5230\u88ab\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

<\/span>\u591a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u70b9\u4eae\u65b0\u4e60\u4fd7<\/span><\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56fe3\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6700\u7ec8\u793e\u4f1a\u65b0\u4e60\u4fd7\u7684\u63a5\u53d7\u6c34\u5e73\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u7ecf\u9a8c\u503c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u671f\u671b\u503c\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u4e3a95%\u3002 \u5177\u670925\uff05\u2264C\u226427\uff05\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u56e2\u4f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65b0\u4e60\u4fd7\u7684\u63a5\u7eb3\u6c34\u5e73\u572872\uff05\u5230100\uff05\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002 \u5728C = 31\uff05\u65f6\uff0c\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u53ef\u4ee5100%\u8fbe\u6210\u65b0\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5171\u8bc6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

 \u56fe3\u5c06\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7814\u7a76\uff08N = 24\uff0cT = 100\uff0cM = 12\uff09\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\uff08T\u8f6e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\u957f\u5ea6\u6839\u636e\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u6240\u670910\u7ec4\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u8bb0\u5fc6\u957f\u5ea6\u6765\u6821\u51c6\u3002 <\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u57289\u2264M\u226413\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\u957f\u5ea6\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u56e2\u4f53\u6210\u545880\uff05\u7684\u9009\u62e9[25]\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u7b26\u5408\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u56fe3\uff09\u3002 \u6570\u503c\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u66f4\u52a0\u51c6\u786e<\/strong>\uff08\u89c1\u56fe1\u548c3\uff09\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u63a5\u8fd124.3\uff05\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

3.\u6df1\u5165\u601d\u8003\uff1a\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u6216\u8bb8\u66f4\u4fdd\u5b88<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u5c55\u793a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4f4e\u9608\u503c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5373\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u5360\u793e\u4f1a\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u768410%\u8fd9\u4e00\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u4e0e\u6027\u522b\u76f8\u5173\u4e60\u4fd7\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u5374\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e00\u81f4\u6027[3]\u3002\u5728\u5bf9\u6027\u522b\u76f8\u5173\u4e60\u4fd7\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u8fbe\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u768430%\uff0c\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a8\u7ffb\u73b0\u6709\u4e60\u4fd7[16]\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e00\u7814\u7a76\u5341\u5206\u543b\u5408\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u7fa4\u4f53\u8fb9\u754c\u76f8\u5bf9\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u5bf9\u540c\u4f34\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u534f\u8c03\u6709\u660e\u786e\u671f\u671b\u548c\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u4e2d\u7684\u89c4\u8303\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u53d8\u5316\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u65e2\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5bf9\u6240\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u793e\u4ea4\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6fc0\u52b1\u53bb\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u56e2\u4f53\u5185\u5efa\u7acb\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7[25]\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u5bf9\u5df2\u5f62\u6210\u884c\u4e3a\u5728\u60c5\u611f\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u7684\u8ba4\u540c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u884c\u4e3a\u6539\u53d8\u4ea7\u751f\u989d\u5916\u7684\u963b\u529b<\/strong>[31]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u65e0\u5230\u6709\uff0c\u5e7f\u573a\u821e\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6d41\u884c\u8d77\u6765\u7684\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u7a76\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u8865\u5145\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5728\u8003\u8651\u66f4\u591a\u793e\u4f1a\u9632\u62a4\u4e0b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6765\u6269\u5c55\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u6709\u53ca\u57fa\u672c\u7ed3\u8bba\uff08\u56fes7\uff09[25]\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u8d8a\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u8d8a\u8d8b\u5411\u4e8e\u4fdd\u7559\u5df2\u6709\u4e60\u4fd7\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5747\u8861\u6001\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u504f\u659c\u6700\u4f73\u54cd\u5e94\u8ba1\u7b97\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4ecd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u7a0d\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u7fa4\u4f53\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u754c\u5b9a\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u9002\u7528\u8303\u56f4\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f3a\u8c0325%\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u6570\u503c\u5e76\u4e0d\u666e\u904d\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5185\u751f\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u534f\u8c03\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u59cb\u7ec8\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u505a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u5728\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u3002\u7279\u522b\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u9002\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u503c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u4ece\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u9488\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u4e60\u4fd7\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5730\u6269\u5c55\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8ba9\u540c\u76df\u6210\u5458\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5f71\u54cd\u793e\u4f1a\u884c\u4e3a\u4e60\u4fd7\u548c\u4fe1\u4ef0\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u589e\u957f\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

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4.\u5f15\u7528\u4e0e\u5907\u6ce8<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/span>
<\/p>\n

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[2] K. D. Opp, C. Gern, Am. Sociol. Rev. 58, 659\u2013680 (1993).<\/span><\/p>\n

[3] R. M. Kanter, Am. J. Sociol. 82, 965\u2013990 (1977).<\/span><\/p>\n

[4] D. Dahlerup, L. Freidenvall, Int. Fem. J. Polit. 7, 26\u201348 (2005).<\/span><\/p>\n

[5] S. Bikhchandani, D. Hirshleifer, I. Welch, J. Polit. Econ. 100,992\u20131026 (1992).<\/span><\/p>\n

[6] T. Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification (Harvard Univ.Press, 1997).<\/span><\/p>\n

[7] J. C. Harsanyi, R. Selten, A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games (MIT Press, Cambridge, 1988).<\/span><\/p>\n

[8] J. F. Nash, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 36, 48\u201349 (1950).<\/span><\/p>\n

[9] H. P. Young, Econometrica J. Econom. Soc. 61, 57\u201384 (1993).<\/span><\/p>\n

[10] M. Kandori, G. J. Mailath, R. Rob, Econometrica J. Econom. Soc.61, 29\u201356 (1993).<\/span><\/p>\n

[11] G. Ellison, Econometrica J. Econom. Soc. 61, 1047\u20131071 (1993).<\/span><\/p>\n

[12] T. Schelling, Micromotives and Macrobehavior (Norton,New York, 1978).<\/span><\/p>\n

[13] M. Granovetter, Am. J. Sociol. 83, 1420\u20131443 (1978).<\/span><\/p>\n

[14] J. Xie et al., Phys. Rev. E Stat. Nonlin. Soft Matter Phys. 84,011130 (2011).<\/span><\/p>\n

[15] D. M. Centola, Ration. Soc. 25, 3\u201340 (2013).<\/span><\/p>\n

[16] D. Dahlerup, Scand. Polit. Stud. 11, 275\u2013298 (1988).<\/span><\/p>\n

[17] S. Grey, Polit. Gend. 2, 492\u2013502 (2006).<\/span><\/p>\n

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(Cambridge Univ. Press, 1993).<\/span><\/p>\n

[19] K. Nyborg et al., Science 354, 42\u201343 (2016).<\/span><\/p>\n

[20] D. Centola, A. Baronchelli, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 112,<\/span><\/p>\n

1989\u20131994 (2015).<\/span><\/p>\n

[21] D. Lewis, Convention: A Philosophical Study (Harvard Univ.<\/span><\/p>\n

Press, Cambridge, 1969).<\/span><\/p>\n

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(2009).<\/span><\/p>\n

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2009).<\/span><\/p>\n

[25] Materials and methods are available as supplementary<\/span><\/p>\n

materials.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Mech. Theory Exp. 2006, P06014 (2006).<\/span><\/p>\n

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formation in large social networks: membership, growth, and evolution. Proc. 12th ACM SIGKDD Int. Conf. Knowl. Discov. Data Min., 44\u201354 (2006).<\/span><\/p>\n

[30] F. Kooti, H. Yang, M. Cha, P. K. Gummadi, W. A. Mason, The Emergence of Conventions in Online Social Networks. Proc. Sixth Int. AAAI Conf. Weblogs Soc. Media ICWSM 2012 (2012).<\/span><\/p>\n

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[36] C. Shih, The Facebook Era: Tapping Online Social Networks to Market, Sell, and Innovate (Pearson Education, 2010).<\/span><\/p>\n


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http:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/360\/6393\/1116#login-pane<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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