{"id":15318,"date":"2019-04-10T00:00:50","date_gmt":"2019-04-09T16:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=15318"},"modified":"2019-05-04T21:24:35","modified_gmt":"2019-05-04T13:24:35","slug":"010ce2021b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=15318","title":{"rendered":"\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u4e3a\u4f55\u8015\u8018\u4e0d\u89c1\u6536\u83b7\uff0c\u52aa\u529b\u4e86\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u529f\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"bpp-post-content\">\n<section class=\"XiGuaChajian\"><\/section>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"rich_pages\" style=\"width: 514px;height: 288px\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma7-1554889608.jpeg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><span><strong><span style=\"text-align: left;font-size: 13px\">\u4eba\u751f\u4e2d\u7684\u592a\u591a\u5931\u8d25\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u51e0\u4e4e\u5feb\u8981\u6210\u529f\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u653e\u5f03\u3002\u2014\u2014\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u5c14\u74e6\u00b7\u7231\u8fea\u751f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section class=\"\">\n<section><span><strong><span>\u5bfc\u8bed<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<section>\n<section>\n<section>\n<p style=\"clear: both;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><span>\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u88ab\u6210\u529f\u7684\u98ce\u5149\u5438\u5f15\uff0c\u4f01\u56fe\u4ece\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u53ef\u590d\u5236\u7684\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5bf9\u201c\u5931\u8d25\u201d\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5374\u4e0d\u591f\u6e05\u6670\u3002\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u51ef\u6d1b\u683c\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u526f\u6559\u6388\u738b\u5927\u987a\u7b49\u4eba\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8bba\u6587 Quantifying dynamics of failure across science, startups, and security\u3002 \u5728\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236\u3002\u4ece\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e2d\u201c\u660e\u5bdf\u79cb\u6beb\u201d\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u80dc\u8d25\u65e9\u6709\u4f0f\u7b14\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<blockquote><p><span>\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p><span>Quantifying dynamics of failure across science, startups, and security<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p><span>\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p><span>https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1903.07562<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\">\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em\"><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 15px\">\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u7126\u8651\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6210\u529f\u4ea6\u6709\u6267\u5ff5\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u5982\u6b64\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u201c\u6210\u529f\u9700\u6c42\u201d\uff0c\u5e02\u9762\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u6210\u529f\u5b66\u201d\u4e66\u7c4d\u53ef\u8c13\u6c57\u725b\u5145\u680b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u9053\u8def\u5e76\u975e\u4e00\u5e06\u98ce\u987a\uff0c\u798f\u7279\u5728\u521b\u529e\u4ed6\u7684\u798f\u7279\u6c7d\u8f66\u4e4b\u524d\u7834\u4ea7\u8fc7\u4e24\u6b21\uff1bJ.K.\u7f57\u7433\u7684\u54c8\u5229\u6ce2\u7279\u4e66\u7a3f\u88ab\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u62d2\u7edd\u8fc7\u5341\u4e8c\u6b21\uff1b\u66f4\u4e0d\u8981\u8bf4\u201c\u4e2d\u5b66\u751f\u4f5c\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u8001\u670b\u53cb\u201d\u2014\u2014\u7231\u8fea\u751f\uff0c\u5728\u53d1\u660e\u706f\u6ce1\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e3a\u4e86\u627e\u5230\u53ef\u4ee5\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u4eae\u7684\u706f\u4e1d\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5343\u4f59\u6b21\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"xgj-cpc-banner-tip\">\n<p style=\"text-align: left;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px\">\u867d\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u201c\u5931\u8d25\u662f\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u6bcd\u201d\u8fd9\u53e5\u683c\u8a00\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u5374\u5c11\u4e4b\u53c8\u5c11\u3002\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u51ef\u6d1b\u683c\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u526f\u6559\u6388\u738b\u5927\u987a\u7b49\u4eba\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u5730\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86<\/span><strong><span>\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px\">\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<\/p>\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>\u4e09\u4e2a\u6709\u5173\u201c\u6210\u8d25\u201d\u7684\u5927\u578b\u6570\u636e\u96c6<span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u5f02\u5e38\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff1a<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: circle\">\n<li>\n<p><strong><span>NIH Grants<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1985 \u5e74\u81f3 2015 \u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u63d0\u4ea4\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u536b\u751f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08National Institutes of Health\uff0cNIH\uff09\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e0e\u5065\u5eb7\u6709\u5173\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u7ecf\u8d39\u7533\u62a5\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u536b\u751f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u751f\u7269\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8d44\u52a9\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728 1985 \u5e74\u81f3 2015 \u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u63d0\u4f9b\u6536\u5230\u4e86\u6765\u81ea 139,091 \u540d\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684776,721 \u4efd\u7ecf\u8d39\u7533\u62a5\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u9644\u6709\u7ecf\u8d39\u7533\u62a5\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u5426\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u6574\u7406\u7533\u62a5\u8005\u7684\u5386\u6b21\u7ecf\u8d39\u7533\u62a5\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u53d6\u51fa\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u591a\u6b21\u5931\u8d25\u6700\u7ec8\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u7684\u201c\u751f\u7269\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u594b\u6597\u53f2\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong><span>Startups<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u534f\u4f1a\uff08National Venture Capital Association\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684VentureXpert \u6570\u636e\u5e93\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4ece 1970 \u5e74\u81f3 2016 \u5e74\uff0c\u7531 253,579 \u540d\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u521b\u529e\u768458,111 \u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u5efa\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u7684\u5386\u6b21\u521b\u4e1a\u7ecf\u5386\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u521b\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff1a\u8fdb\u884c IPO \u6216\u88ab\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u6536\u8d2d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>\u6ce8\uff1a\u9996\u6b21\u516c\u5f00\u52df\u80a1\uff08Initial Public Offerings\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0IPO\uff09\u662f\u6307\u4e00\u5bb6\u4f01\u4e1a\u6216\u516c\u53f8 \u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5c06\u5b83\u7684\u80a1\u4efd\u5411\u516c\u4f17\u51fa\u552e\uff08\u9996\u6b21\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u884c\uff0c\u6307\u80a1\u4efd\u516c\u53f8\u9996\u6b21\u5411\u793e\u4f1a\u516c\u4f17\u516c\u5f00\u62db\u80a1\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u65b9\u5f0f\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong><span>Terrorist Attacks<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86 1970 \u5e74\u81f3 2017 \u5e74\u95f4\u7684 3,178 \u4e2a\u6050\u6016\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7b56\u5212\u7684 170,350 \u8d77\u6050\u6016\u88ad\u51fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u6570\u636e\u5e93\uff08Global Terrorism Database\uff0cGTD\uff09\u3002\u628a\u88ad\u51fb\u6210\u529f\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u4eba\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff1b\u65e0\u4eba\u4f24\u4ea1\u5219\u8868\u793a\u88ad\u51fb\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<\/p>\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>\u8fd0\u6c14\u4e0e\u5b66\u4e60<span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u6210\u529f\u8fd8\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u4e3b\u8981\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e<span>\u8fd0\u6c14\uff08Chance\uff09<\/span>\u548c<span>\u5b66\u4e60\uff08Learning\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5229\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u68c0\u9a8c\u8fd9\u4e24\u9879\u5047\u8bf4\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u9760\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong><span>\u8fd0\u6c14\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8fd0\u6c14\u662f\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u5426\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u7531\u6982\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u60c5\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u548c\u629b\u786c\u5e01\u6b63\u9762\u671d\u4e0a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e00\u6837\u90fd\u662f 0.5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\u629b\u51e0\u6b21\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u6b63\u9762\u671d\u4e0a\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff08\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u662f\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff09\u5c31\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u505a\u4e00\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u548c\u505a\u4e00\u767e\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u7b49\u4e8e\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\uff08\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u8868\u793a\u4e8b\u60c5\u6700\u7ec8\u7ec8\u4e8e\u6210\u529f\u4e86\uff09\u3002\u4e14\u5982\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf\uff08Failure Streak\uff09\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u543b\u5408\u6307\u6570\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u56fe\u50cf\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 540px;height: 270px\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma1-1554889608.jpeg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span>\u8fd0\u6c14\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c<span><span style=\"font-size: 9pt\">\u5de6\u4fa7\u8868\u793a\u7684\u662f\u9996\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u548c\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u53f3\u4fa7\u8868\u793a\u7684\u662f\u591a\u6b21\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4e92\u8865\u7d2f\u79ef\u5206\u5e03\uff08CCDF\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong><span>\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\uff0c\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u80fd\u591f<span>\u4ece\u5148\u524d\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6559\u8bad\uff0c<\/span>\u90a3\u4e48\u540e\u7eed\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u5c31\u4f1a\u5927\u4e3a\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u548c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u5c31\u51fd\u6570\u56fe\u8c61\u800c\u8bba\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u201c\u5c3e\u90e8\u201d\u4f1a\u6bd4\u6307\u6570\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u8981\u201c\u7a84\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"rich_pages\" style=\"width: 540px;height: 262px\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma9-1554889608.jpeg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span><span style=\"font-size: 9pt\">\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u56fe\u793a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002\u5de6\u4fa7\u8868\u793a\u7684\u662f\u9996\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u548c\u5012\u6570\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u53f3\u4fa7\u8868\u793a\u7684\u662f\u591a\u6b21\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4e92\u8865\u7d2f\u79ef\u5206\u5e03\uff08CCDF\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span style=\"font-size: 9pt\"><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e24\u79cd\u5047\u8bf4\u53bb\u8868\u8ff0\u5148\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6848\u4f8b\u6570\u636e\u65f6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c<span>\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u6bd4\u6307\u6570\u56fe\u50cf\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u8fd8\u8981\u5bbd\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002<\/span>\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u8fd0\u6c14\u548c\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4eba\u4e3a\u4f55\u4f1a\u6210\u529f\u548c\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u6216\u8bb8\uff0c\u662f\u8fd9\u4e8c\u8005\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u624d\u9020\u5c31\u4e86\u6700\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 100%;height: auto !important\" width=\"69%\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma10-1554889609-1.jpg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span>NIH Grants\u3001Startups\u3001Terrorist Attacks\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570<\/span><\/strong><\/span><span><strong><span>\u636e\u96c6\u771f\u5b9e\u6848\u4f8b\u6240\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<\/p>\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5efa\u7acb<span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u201c\u5931\u8d25\u201d\u5230\u5e95\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u600e\u6837\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5462\uff1f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u6613\u7684\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u5165\u624b\u7814\u7a76\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong><span>\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4e0e\u90e8\u4ef6<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 100%;height: auto !important\" width=\"69%\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma3-1554889609.jpg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span>\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3001\u90e8\u4ef6\u53ca\u5176\u66f4\u8fed\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c<span><span style=\"font-size: 9pt\">\u5de6\u56fe\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u591a\u4e2a\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u7ecf\u8fc7\u591a\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u5206\u6570\u5747\u5f97\u5230\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1b\u53f3\u56fe\u8868\u793a\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u90e8\u4ef6\u8fd8\u662f\u6cbf\u7528\u5c31\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe a \u6240\u793a\uff0c\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21<span>\u5c1d\u8bd5<\/span>\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684<span>\u90e8\u4ef6\uff08component\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u4ee5\u7533\u62a5\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u8d39\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff1a\u7533\u62a5\u4e00\u6b21\u751f\u7269\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u8d39\uff08<span>\u5c1d\u8bd5<\/span>\uff09\u9700\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u9884\u7b97\u3001\u7f16\u5199\u6570\u636e\u7ba1\u7406\u89c4\u5212\u3001\u9884\u4f30\u7814\u7a76\u5f71\u54cd\u7b49\u7b49<span>\u90e8\u4ef6<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u5206\u6570 x \u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u65e0\u6743\u7684\uff08\u6743\u91cd\u4e3a 1\uff09\u3002\u5206\u6570\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u8be5\u6b21\u90e8\u4ef6\u4e5f\u8d8a\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u4e00\u6b21\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u518d\u505a\u4e00\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5bf9\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: decimal;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 15px\">\u4ee5\u6982\u7387 p \u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\uff08\u56fe a \u4e2d\u7684\u7eff\u8272\u7bad\u5934\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<section>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 15px\">\u4ee5\u6982\u7387 1-p \u6cbf\u7528\u8fc7\u53bb\u6700\u597d\u7684\u7248\u672c x*\uff08\u56fe a \u4e2d\u7684\u7ea2\u8272\u7bad\u5934\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<section><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u53c2\u89c1\u4e0a\u56fe b\uff0c\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90e8\u4ef6\u5206\u6570\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a 0 \u5230 1 \u7684\u6570\u503c\uff08\u7531\u8fd0\u6c14\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u6210\u529f\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7248\u672c\u7684\u90e8\u4ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u5230<span>\u5148\u524d\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u8d28\u91cf<\/span>\u2014\u2014\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u7248\u672c\u7684\u52a8\u529b\uff08\u6982\u7387 p\uff09\u88ab\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e3a\u4e0e 1-x* \u5355\u8c03\u76f8\u5173\u3002 \u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fc7\u53bb\u505a\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff08x*\uff09\u8d8a\u5dee\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8d8a\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u53bb\u6539\u8fdb\u5b83\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u591a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u90e8\u4ef6\u90fd\u8981\u591a\u82b1\u8d39\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u601d\u8def\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u6e38\u620f\u6253\u602a\u5347\u7ea7\u88c5\u5907\uff0c\u6e38\u620f\u73a9\u5bb6\u5728\u8d2d\u4e70\u3001\u5347\u7ea7\u65b0\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u88c5\u5907\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u571f\u8c6a\u4efb\u6027\uff0c\u968f\u610f\u6c2a\u91d1\u3002\u800c\u662f\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u88c5\u5907\u80fd\u529b\u8fdb\u884c\u9009\u62e9\uff1a\u8fd8\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u88c5\u5907\u4f1a\u7559\u7740\u7ee7\u7eed\u7528\uff0c \u8d8a\u70c2\u7684\u88c5\u5907\u8d8a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u66ff\u6362\u6389\u3002\u800c\u6253\u9020\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u88c5\u5907\u4e5f\u662f\u8981\u82b1\u8d39\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u6545\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684<span>\u8868\u793a\u5b66\u4e60\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\u53d8\u91cf <strong>k<\/strong>\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\uff1ak \u6a21\u578b\uff08The k model\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong><span>k \u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 100%;height: auto !important\" width=\"69%\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma4-1554889609.jpg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span>k \u6a21\u578b\uff08The k model\uff09\uff0c<span><span style=\"font-size: 9pt\">\u4ece\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u6548\u7387\u4e24\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e24\u79cd\u6781\u7aef\u7684k\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53 k \u7b49\u4e8e 0 \u65f6\uff08\u56fe\u4e2d\u4ee5\u6a59\u9ec4\u8272\u6807\u8bc6\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u505a\u51fa\u65b0\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u65b0\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u90fd\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\u6a21\u578b\u5c31\u9000\u5316\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fd0\u6c14\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53 k \u8d8b\u8fd1\u4e8e \u221e \u65f6\uff08\u56fe\u4e2d\u4ee5\u84dd\u8272\u6807\u8bc6\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8981\u8003\u8651\u8fc7\u53bb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u5931\u8d25\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u5b66\u5f97\u8d8a\u591a\u8d8a\u80fd\u8282\u7701\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e5f\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u4e24\u4ef6\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u6548\u7387\u3002\u5728 k=0 \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8fd0\u6c14\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u53cd\u590d\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u603b\u4f53\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u6548\u7387\u4e0a\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u6539\u8fdb\uff08\u56fe c\u3001f\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u5426\u5b8c\u5168\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u649e\u5927\u8fd0\u3002\u800c\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff08\u56fe d\u3001g\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u660e\u663e\u80fd\u591f\u770b\u5230\u8d28\u91cf\uff08\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5206\u6570 x\uff0c\u56fe\u4e2d\u4ee5 1-x \u51cf\u5c0f\u8868\u793a\u8d28\u91cf\u589e\u9ad8\uff09\u4e0e\u6548\u7387\uff08T\uff09\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u3002<\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<\/p>\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>\u4e09\u7ea7\u76f8\u53d8\u4e0e\u4e34\u754c\u7684\u9b54\u529b<span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u7591\u95ee\u662f\uff1a\u4ece\u201c\u5565\u90fd\u4e0d\u5b66\u201d\u5230\u201c\u5b66\u4e60\u4e00\u5207\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e48\uff1f\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\uff0ck \u503c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 540.364px\" width=\"69%\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma5-1554889610.jpg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 13px\">\u7531\u4e24\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\u70b9\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e09\u7ea7\u76f8\u53d8\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c<span><span style=\"font-size: 9pt\">\u53ea\u6709\u5f53k\u503c\u5927\u4e8e\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u624d\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u9608\u503c\u7684\u2014\u2014\u5b66\u4e60\u5bf9\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u88ab\u9650\u5b9a\u5728\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002\u6362\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u968f\u7740 k \u4ece 0 \u589e\u5927\u5230 \u221e\uff0c\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u957f\u5bf9\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u592a\u5c11\uff08k\u592a\u5c0f\uff09\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u6548\u7387\u90fd\u5f88\u4f4e\uff0c\u5b66\u4e86\u8ddf\u6ca1\u5b66\u6548\u679c\u4e00\u6837\uff08\u56fe a \u4e2d\u7684\u6a59\u8272\u90e8\u5206\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7279\u5f81\u548c k=\u221e \u65f6\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u76f8\u540c\u3002<strong>\u4e5f\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u8ddf\u5b66\u4e60\u8fc7\u5f80\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5dee\u4e0d\u8fc7\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u5c31\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0<span>\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\u70b9\u7684\u4e09\u7ea7\u76f8\u53d8\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3e\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4e24\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u529b\u76f8\u5dee\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u6070\u597d\u5904\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u503c\u7684\u4e24\u4fa7\u6700\u540e\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u5b66\u4e60\u6548\u7387\u90fd\u76f8\u8ddd\u751a\u8fdc\u3002<strong>\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e34\u754c\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u4eba\u80fd\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u6070\u6070\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u4eba\u5374\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u6b62\u6b65\u4e0d\u524d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: center\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 540.364px\" width=\"69%\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma3-1554889610.png\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 13px\">\u4f4d\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u72b6\u6001\u4e24\u4fa7\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u6548\u679c\u5b9e\u4f8b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<\/p>\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>\u5173\u4e8e\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u56db\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b<span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56db\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: circle\">\n<li>\n<p><strong><span>\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00 \uff1a\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u90fd\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 540.364px\" width=\"69%\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma5-1554889610.png\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 13px\">\u6210\u529f\u7ec4\uff08\u84dd\u8272\uff09\u548c\u975e\u6210\u529f\u7ec4\uff08\u6a59\u8272\uff09\u5931\u8d25\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u4e92\u8865\u7d2f\u79ef\u5206\u5e03\uff08CCDF\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u4e00\u76f4\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u3002\u4e14\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u3001\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5931\u8d25\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u7ec6\u5206\u7c7b\u522b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u4e0d\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e5f\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u6216\u8bb8\uff0c\u5f53\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u6211\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6210\u529f\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5fd8\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u8eab\u540e\u90a3\u4e9b\u9532\u800c\u4e0d\u820d\u5374\u53c8\u5c61\u6218\u5c61\u8d25\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: circle\">\n<li>\n<p><strong><span>\u9884\u6d4b\u4e8c \uff1a\u6839\u636e\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4fe1\u606f\u6240\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u5c06\u6210\u529f\u8005\u548c\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u8005\u5206\u79bb\u5f00\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 556.364px\" width=\"69%\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma0-1554889611.png\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 13px\">\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u5c31\u80fd\u5c06\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u5931\u8d25\u5206\u9694\u5f00\uff0c\u6298\u7ebf\u548c\u9634\u5f71\u533a\u57df\u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u6837\u672c\u5747\u503c\u4e0e\u65b9\u5dee<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\u5931\u8d25\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4f5c\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u662f\u5e42\u5f8b\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53\u5fae\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9\u5dee\u5f02\u4e5f\u80fd\u5728\u540e\u671f\u5e26\u6765\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5206\u6d41\u3002\u8fd9\u4e8c\u8005\u7684\u5206\u6d41\u5176\u5b9e\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u5c31\u4ee5\u6ce8\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: circle\">\n<li>\n<p><strong><span>\u9884\u6d4b\u4e09\uff1a \u5b9e\u9645\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5206\u6d41\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px\"><img class=\"\" style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 0px;width: 556.364px\" width=\"69%\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma0-1554889611-1.png\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 13px\">\u901a\u8fc7\u4e24\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u6210\u529f\u7ec4\u548c\u975e\u6210\u529f\u7ec4\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u529b\u5dee\u5f02\u5de8\u5927<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e0a\u56fe\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c<span>\u540c\u6837\u662f\u7ecf\u5386\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7ec4\u548c\u4e0d\u6210\u529f\u7ec4\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u5931\u8d25\u540e\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c<\/span>\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u8def\u4e5f\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\uff0c\u5728\u89c2\u6d4b\u4e09\u4e2a\u6765\u81ea\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u7684\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u7684\u7591\u95ee\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b66\u4e60\u5931\u8d25\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u5c3e\u90e8\u5374\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u201c\u957f\u201d\u5462\uff1f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u4e0d\u6210\u529f\u7684\u533a\u522b\u4e3b\u8981\u5728\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5f85\u4ee5\u5f80\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4e2d\u90e8\u4ef6\u7684\u590d\u7528\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u4ee5\u5f80\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u590d\u7528\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u90e8\u4ef6\u80fd\u591f\u4fdd\u7559\u8db3\u591f\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u6b7b\u6b7b\u7684\u6525\u4f4f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u592a\u597d\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u4e0d\u80af\u653e\u624b\uff0c\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5904\u4e8e\u6b20\u4f18\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u4e2d\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c<span>\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u8fdb\u5c55\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u5e76\u975e\u5026\u4e8e\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u61d2\u4e8e\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u505a\u4e86\u592a\u591a\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5<\/span>\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n<p><strong><span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: circle\">\n<li>\n<p><strong><span>\u9884\u6d4b\u56db\uff1a \u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u957f\u5ea6\u670d\u4ece\u97e6\u4f2f\u5206\u5e03\uff08Weibull distribution\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u505a\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u5728\u591a\u6b21\u5931\u8d25\u540e\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u62df\u5408\u4e86\u5931\u8d25\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\uff1a\u5230\u5e95\u80fd\u5426\u6210\u529f\uff1f\u4f55\u65f6\u4f1a\u6210\u529f\uff1f<\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<\/p>\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>\u5931\u4e4b\u6beb\u5398\uff0c\u8c2c\u4ee5\u5343\u91cc<span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u6b21\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u662f\u6784\u5efa\u5728\u524d\u671f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u91cd\u590d\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4fe1\u606f\u523b\u753b\u51fa\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u628a\u80dc\u8d25\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u8fd0\u6c14\u3001\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u548c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u800c\u672c\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2a\u4f53\u95f4\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u5dee\u5f02\u5e76\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53cd\u590d\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u8fc7\u7a0b\u540e\uff0c\u6240\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5374\u6709\u7740\u5929\u58e4\u4e4b\u522b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u6b63\u6240\u8c13\u662f\uff1a<span><strong>\u541b\u5b50\u614e\u59cb\uff0c\u5dee\u82e5\u6beb\u5398\uff0c\u8c2c\u4ee5\u5343\u91cc<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><span>\u53c2\u8003\u62a5\u9053\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: circle\">\n<li>\n<p><span>How the data mining of failure could teach us the secrets of success <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/613229\/data-mining-reveals-the-hidden-secret-of-human-failure-and-how-to-turn-it-into-success\/<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"js_blockquote_wrap\">\n<section class=\"js_blockquote_digest\">\n<section>\n<p><span>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aLeo<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u738b\u6021\u853a<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section><strong><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247496733&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=27afcfd0b9844a63f4c9dbf543b81372&amp;chksm=e897ae90dfe02786f3a1a21357091f9e6c4c5d358166722aaa24985a8b1d4bf90d5e87550be3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;letter-spacing: 2px\"><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px\"><strong><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 14px\">\u5229\u7528\u201c\u7f51\u7edc\u201d\u9884\u5224\u4f60\u6240\u5728\u56e2\u961f\u80fd\u5426\u6210\u529f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247494252&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=e73a0f983f27d34bdfb33ca77ae210ad&amp;chksm=e897b0e1dfe039f73454b9cb62876947ff080f6d93bf3934b26dd1d5269ab7ec638c147bf1cb&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;letter-spacing: 2px\"><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px\"><strong><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 14px\">Nature\u5b50\u520a\uff1a\u6210\u529f\u624d\u662f\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u6bcd<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247493116&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f71dd138e548e6a27e279a32600e9cd2&amp;chksm=e897bf71dfe036671a1adb5ccf855621f350167be4356ac751cf6d0b12c53991e4bfe7f21578&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;letter-spacing: 2px\"><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px\"><strong><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 14px\">Science\u91cd\u78c5\uff1a\u201c\u8981\u60f3\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5feb\u62b1\u5927\u817f\uff01\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247494150&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=16b8007d7d012ecd9d88ea244f050edb&amp;chksm=e897b08bdfe0399d62f4d2366dabaab0d5801682678e94647f09216499c6c6203ebb4b356474&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;letter-spacing: 2px\"><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px\"><strong><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 14px\">Barab\u00e1si\uff1a\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u63ed\u793a5\u6761\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6cd5\u5219<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247487778&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c2e77ec93213c4c63f57a777ff10e368&amp;chksm=e8944bafdfe3c2b9d66544dafe7403159473e8c94fd3bc513f5300c353bcec49c0c0b69797af&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"font-size: 14px;text-decoration: underline;letter-spacing: 2px\"><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px\"><strong><span style=\"letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 14px\">\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<section class=\"mpa-template\">\n<section class=\"\">\n<section class=\"\">\n<p style=\"clear: both;min-height: 1em\">\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"post-image\"><img class=\"__bg_gif\" width=\"100%\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.5px;height: auto !important;width: 64px !important\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma2-1554889611.gif\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/div>\n<p style=\"clear: both;min-height: 1em\">\n<section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 0.5em;margin-left: 0.5em;line-height: 25.6px;text-align: center\">\n<section style=\"margin-right: 0.5em;margin-left: 0.5em;line-height: 25.6px\">\n<section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 0.5em;margin-left: 0.5em;font-size: 15px\">\n<section>\n<p><strong><span>\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8QQ\u7fa4\uff5c877391004<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span>\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 0.5em;margin-left: 0.5em\">\n<h1 style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75em\"><strong><strong><span><span>\u25c6<\/span><span>\u25c6<\/span><span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px\">\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px\">\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<section>\n<div class=\"post-image\"><img class=\"\" style=\"height: auto !important;width: 156px !important\" src=\"http:\/\/swarma.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/swarma0-1554889611.jpg\" alt=\"\u96c6\u667a\" title=\"\u96c6\u667a\" \/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"clear: both;min-height: 1em\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\">\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<blockquote class=\"keep-source\">\n<p>\u539f\u6587\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff08\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\uff09\uff1a<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?timestamp=1554889804&amp;src=3&amp;ver=1&amp;signature=EktaGEjYD8uc8ZYqN32brHe7cBkJpcdn2J0*ob8ZaoHkrGBP5ggqmg74Z9gnQtO-BeKe44I5NjIiY*hRh2RaIv3u5FMbdFMJYUZ7Kf4X7cMTpJPZBwJykkKsYEs4gemXK8dVC8wrr9KpUivj5hrYP9dmXP7Ffnjr2rQQm*RELFw=\">\u96c6\u667a<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eba\u751f\u4e2d\u7684\u592a\u591a\u5931\u8d25\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u51e0\u4e4e\u5feb\u8981\u6210\u529f\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u653e\u5f03\u3002\u2014\u2014\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u963f\u5c14\u74e6\u00b7\u7231\u8fea\u751f \u5bfc\u8bed \u6211\u4eec\u603b\u88ab\u6210\u529f\u7684\u98ce\u5149\u5438\u5f15\uff0c\u4f01\u56fe\u4ece\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u53ef\u590d\u5236\u7684\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5bf9\u201c\u5931\u8d25\u201d\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5374\u4e0d\u591f\u6e05\u6670\u3002\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5317\u5927\u5b66\u51ef\u6d1b\u683c\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u526f\u6559\u6388\u738b\u5927\u987a\u7b49\u4eba\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8bba\u6587 Quantifying dynamic&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[21],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15318"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15318\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15318"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=15318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}