{"id":1728,"date":"2018-06-02T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-06-01T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/swarma.org\/%swarma-paper%\/"},"modified":"2018-12-07T09:26:39","modified_gmt":"2018-12-07T01:26:39","slug":"%e8%ae%ba%e6%96%87%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb%ef%bc%9a%e4%bb%8e%e4%b9%8c%e5%90%88%e4%b9%8b%e4%bc%97%e5%88%b0%e7%be%a4%e4%bd%93%e6%99%ba%e6%85%a7%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%80%e6%ad%a5%e4%b9%8b%e9%81%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=1728","title":{"rendered":"\u8bba\u6587\u89e3\u8bfb\uff1a\u4ece\u4e4c\u5408\u4e4b\u4f17\u5230\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u7684\u4e00\u6b65\u4e4b\u9065"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90:iStock<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4f53\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u662f\u66f4\u806a\u660e\u8fd8\u662f\u66f4\u611a\u8822\uff1f\u53e4\u8bed\u4e2d\u65e2\u6709\u201c\u4e09\u4e2a\u81ed\u76ae\u5320\uff0c\u9876\u4e2a\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u201c\u4e09\u4eba\u6210\u864e\u201d\u3002\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e<\/span><\/span>\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u5b66\u4f1a Journal of the Royal Society Interface <\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u6587\u7ae0\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u907f\u514d\u96c6\u4f53\u611a\u8822\u3001\u63d0\u5347\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u638c\u63e1\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u539f\u6587\uff1a<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

http:\/\/rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org\/content\/15\/141\/20180130<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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 <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>1.1 \u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u667a\u6167\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1aThe economist<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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1.2 \u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u754c\u9650\u2460: <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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1.3 \u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u2461\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u5bf9\u96c6\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f18\u5316\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u667a\u6167\u3001\u63a2\u7d22\u5176\u8fb9\u754c\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u8fd9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u53d1\u73b0\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6700\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u8bbe\u8ba1\u53ef\u4ee5\u524a\u5f31\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u80fd\u591f\u6bd4\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u548c\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab”\u6467\u6bc1”\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u3002\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90:The Euronext Amsterdam floor (Perpetualtourist2000).<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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2.\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e0e\u53d1\u73b0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n

2.1 \u5b9e\u9a8c(<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u4e00<\/strong><\/span>)\uff1a\u91cf\u5316\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

2.1.1 \u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6848<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span>\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u6536\u96c6\u4e865\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u5e76\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u76848\u4e2a\u73b0\u6709\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u96c6\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c’\u7cd6\u679c\u7f50’<\/span>\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\u4f30\u8ba1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2a\u4f53\uff08\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\u4f30\u7b97\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f50\u5b50\u4e2d\u7684\u7269\u54c1\u6570\u76ee\uff08\u5982\u56fe1a\u6240\u793a\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u65b0\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u5bf9\u8c61\u6570\u91cfJ\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4eba\u6570n\u5206\u522b\u4e3a\uff1a54\uff08n = 36\uff09\uff0c139\uff08n = 51\uff09\uff0c659\uff08n = 602\uff09\uff0c5897\uff08n = 69\uff09\u548c27852\uff08n = 54\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u56fe1b\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u56fe1b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u76f4\u65b9\u56fe\uff08\u7070\u8272<\/span>\u67f1\uff09\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08\u9ed1\u8272\u5b9e\u7ebf\uff09\u3002\u03bc<\/em>\uff08\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff09\u548c\u03c3<\/em>\uff08\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\uff09\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u63cf\u8ff0\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5747\u4e0e\u7f50\u5185\u7269\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u5448\u7ebf\u6027<\/span>\u5173\u7cfb\uff08\u56fe1c\u548c\u56fe1d\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u56fe1.\u6570\u91cf\u5bf9\u4f30\u8ba1\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u7ebf\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\uff1b\u9634\u5f71\u533a\u57df\uff1a95\uff05\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>
<\/p>\n

2.1.2 \u73b0\u6709\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\uff1a\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u6570\uff0c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5982\u56fe2a\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u5177\u6709\u957f\u5c3e\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u56fe1b\uff09\uff0c\u5938\u5927\u4e86\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u8bf7\u76f8\u4e92\u9ad8\u4f30\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u91cf\uff1b\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4f4e\u4f30<\/span>\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u76f8\u7b26\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u548c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u9ad8\u4f30\u548c\u4f4e\u4f30\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u672a\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u5dee\u5f02\uff08\u56fe2b\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7269\u4f53\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\u8fc7\u5c0f\uff08\u975e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8303\u56f4\uff09\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4f1a\u540c\u65f6\u9ad8\u4f30\u5747\u503c\u548c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\uff0c\u6709\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u672c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5e94\u907f\u514d\u6cdb\u7528\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u56fe2.\uff08a\uff09\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u548c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7269\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u76f8\u6bd4\u548c\uff08b\uff09\u4e8c\u8005\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u5b9e\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u503c\uff1b\u9634\u5f71\u533a\u57df\u8868\u793a95\uff05\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff1b\u5b9e\u5fc3\u5706\u5708\u8868\u793a\u6765\u81ea\u4e94\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

2.1.3 \u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e76\u6d4b\u8bd5\u65b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u524a\u5f31\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u662f\uff1a\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span>\uff0c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u662f\uff1a\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u56fe1c\u3001d\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6d4b\u91cf\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong>\uff1a\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span>\u548c\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684<\/span>\u03bc<\/em>\u548c<\/span>\u03c3<\/em>\u66ff\u6362\u4e3a\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6c42\u89e3<\/span>J<\/em>\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u771f\u5b9e\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u201c\u4fee\u6b63\u201d\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7531\u6b64\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u201c\u6821\u6b63\u201d\u7684\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u548c\u201c\u66f4\u6b63\u201d\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\uff1a<\/span>\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136: <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/span>\u4e0d\u50cf\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u6216\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c06\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u7684\u5168\u96c6\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b0\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u518d\u6b21\u8c03\u7528\u56fe1c\u3001d\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u7269\u4f53\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u76eeJ\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u5b83\u5c06\u670d\u4ece\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u5e76\u4e14\u53c2\u6570\u5206\u522b\u4e3a\uff1a\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span>\u548c\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6839\u636eJ\u8ba1\u7b97\u5404\u5173\u8054\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u4ea7\u751f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4f30\u8ba1\u96c6\u5408\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6570\u5c31\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

2.1.4 \u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u2460\uff1a\u8bad\u7ec3\u6837\u672c\u89c4\u6a21<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u56fe3a\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u5747\u4f18\u4e8e<\/span>\u65e7<\/span>\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e8658-78\uff05\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e09\u79cd<\/span>\u65b0<\/span>\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u65b9\u6cd5\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u4f73\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u6574\u4f53\u7cbe\u5ea6\u6700\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740<\/span>\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/span>\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u6709\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\uff08<\/span>\u56fe3b\uff09\u3002\u5c31\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6240\u5f97\u6837\u672c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9700\u8fbe\u5230200\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u624d\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u56fe3.\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u76f8\u5bf9\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u56fe3(a)\u4e2d\u84dd\u8272\u4ee3\u8868\u5927\u4e8e50\uff05\uff0c\u5373\u8868\u683c\u884c\u6240\u793a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8f83\u4f18\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u4ee3\u8868\u5c0f\u4e8e50\uff05\uff0c\u5373\u8868\u683c\u5217\u6240\u793a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8f83\u4f18\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

2.1.5 \u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u2461\uff1a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u8bef\u5dee\u5bb9\u9650<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong>\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u5bf9\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u201c\u8bef\u5dee\u5bb9\u9650\u201d\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u6bcf\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fbe\u5230\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5bb9\u9650\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08’\u5bb9\u5fcd\u6982\u7387’\uff09\u7ed8\u5236\u56fe\u8868\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u89c4\u6a21\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u5219\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f18\u4e8e\u4e94\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08<\/span>\u56fe<\/span>4b\uff0cc\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u5bf9\u8c61\u6570\u91cf\u5927\u4e14\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u6837\u672c\u6570\u91cf\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8bef\u5dee\u5bb9\u9650\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u6807\u51c6\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f18\u4e8e\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u56fe4.\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5927\u5c0f\u548c\u5bb9\u9519\u7ea7\u522b\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\uff08\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a|X – J|\/ J\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dX\u662f\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u503c\uff09\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c0f\u4e8e\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u5bb9\u9519\u5ea6\u3002N\u4e3a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u7269\u4f53\u6570\u91cfJ = 22 026\uff08ln\uff08J\uff09= 10\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n

2.2 \u5b9e\u9a8c(\u4e8c)\uff1a\u91cf\u5316\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

<\/span>2.2.1 \u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6848<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9009\u5b9a\u7269\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u4e3a659\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u4ee5\u63a2\u7a76\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u4f30\u7b97\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u91cf\u5316\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u524a\u5f31\u4e2a\u4f53\u504f\u89c1\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u96c6\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u72ec\u7acb\u505a\u51fa\u521d\u59cb\u4f30\u503cG1<\/span>\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6536\u5230\u4e0e\u5176\u4f30\u8ba1\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u201d\u4fe1\u606fS\uff0c\u5e76\u5f97\u77e5\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd9\u662f\u524d\u9762N\u4f4d\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff08N\u4e3a\u793e\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21\uff09\u3002<\/span>\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u534a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4f1a\u968f\u673a\u6536\u5230G1 \/2\u5230G 1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u670d\u4eceG1 \/2\u5230G 1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u534a\u5219\u4f1a\u4eceG1\u81f32G1\u4e2d\u62bd\u53d6\uff08\u670d\u4eceG1\u81f32G1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u5747\u5300\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fee\u6539\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4f30\u8ba1G 2\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u4eba\u5de5\u63a7\u5236\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u63a2\u7a76\u793e\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0e\u521d\u59cb\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u5dee\u7387\uff08\u7b80\u79f0\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\uff09\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0,\u90e8\u5206\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u53d7\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u62df\u5408\u4e86\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6539\u53d8\u521d\u59cb\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\uff08\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff08S – G1\uff09\/G1\uff09\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u8ddd\u79bb\uff08\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u503c\uff09\u548c\u793e\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u6539\u53d8\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5206\u6790\u6539\u53d8\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0e\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff09\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a<\/span>a<\/span>\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u518d\u6b21\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u5bf9\u6570<\/span>ln(G2)\u5219\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606fS\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u548c\u521d\u59cb\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u5e73\u5747<\/span>\uff08<\/span>ln(G2) = <\/span>a*<\/span>ln(S) +(1 – <\/span>a<\/span>)ln(G1)\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>a <\/span>= 0\u65f6\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4e2a\u4f53\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u53d7\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b\u800c\u5f53<\/span>a <\/span>= 1\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/span><\/span>
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2.2.2 \u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u89c4\u5f8b\uff1a\u793e\u4f1a\u7f6e\u6362\uff0c\u793e\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u56fe5c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f<\/span>\u8d8a\u5c0f\u4e8e\u521d\u59cb\u4f30\u503c\uff0c<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6743\u91cd<\/span>\u8d8a\u5c0f\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\u4e3a\u8d1f\u65f6\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6743\u91cd\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\u4e3a\u6b63\u6bd4\u3002\u4f46\u5f53\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\u4e3a\u6b63\u65f6\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6743\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u56fe5d\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6743\u91cd\u968f\u7740<\/span>\u793e\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21<\/span>\u6269\u5927\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u56fe5.\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u89c4\u5219\u3002\u5b9e\u7ebf\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c; \u9634\u5f71\u9762\u79ef\uff1a95\uff05\u53ef\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4;\u5708\uff1a\uff08a-b\uff09\u7684\u5206\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5747\u503c\u548c\uff08c-d\uff09\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span>
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2.2.3 \u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u4f30\u503c\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5206\u4eab\u4fe1\u606f\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u72ec\u7acb\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u65b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u672a\u53d7\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u72ec\u7acb\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2a\u4f53\u5f7c\u6b64\u5171\u4eab\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6ca1\u6709<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd<\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\uff08<\/span>\u56fe3\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6307\u6807\u6781\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728<\/span>\u5bf9\u8c61\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\u8f83\u5927\u65f6\uff08<\/span>\u56fe6\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u53d7\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0e\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u548c\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7269\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u90fd\u975e\u5e38<\/span>\u7a33\u5065<\/span>\uff08\u56fe6\uff09\uff1b\u6ca1\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\uff0c\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e0e\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u65b9\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u51e0\u4e4e\u76f8\u540c\u7684<\/span>\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n

\u56fe6.\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\uff08a-c\uff09\u4e0e\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1b\uff08d-f\uff09\u4e0e\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u6d45\u7070\u8272\u5706\u5708\uff1a\u4e0d\u53d7\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\uff1b\u6df1\u7070\u8272\u5706\u5708\uff1a\u53d7\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6570\u91cf\u4e3aln\uff08J\uff09= 4\uff08a\uff0cd\uff09\uff0cln\uff08J\uff09= 7\uff08b\uff0ce\uff09\u548cln\uff08J\uff09= 10\uff08c\uff0cf\uff09\u3002\u5706\u5708\u8868\u793a1000\u6b21\u91cd\u590d\u4e2d\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee; \u8bef\u5dee\u6761\u56fe\u662f\u6807\u51c6\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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3.\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e0e\u63a8\u5e7f<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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3.1 \u6587\u7ae0\u8981\u70b9<\/strong>\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bef\u5dee\u6765\u6e90\u3001\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u867d\u7136\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u667a\u6167\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u7c7b\u548c\u975e\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u4ecd\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u8bef\u5dee\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\uff08\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\uff09\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\uff08\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab\uff09\uff0c\u63a2\u7a76\u4e86\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u667a\u6167\u5982\u4f55\u3001\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f55\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u6548\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5e38\u7528\u5e73\u5747\u4f30\u503c\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9519\u8bef\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u667a\u6167\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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3.2 \u7ed3\u8bba\u63a8\u5e7f\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ece\u6570\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u5230\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u52a1<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u9664\u4e86\u4ece\u6570\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u52a1\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u548c\u5efa\u8bae\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5404\u79cd\u5176\u4ed6\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u52a1\u53ef\u5f52\u5230\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u7c7b\u4f3c\u504f\u5dee\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u5219\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5927\u7c7b\u4e2d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u52a1\u53ef\u80fd\u5448\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u5448\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\uff1a\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u7968\u623f\u56de\u62a5\u548c\u5de5\u7a0b\u5931\u8d25\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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3.3 \u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7f6e\u6362\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u81ea\u8eab\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5f52\u7eb3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e0e\u4e00\u822c\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u8003\u8651<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02<\/span>\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd<\/span>\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4f4e\u4e8e\u81ea\u8eab\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f1a\u66f4\u53d7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u81ea\u8eab\u4f30\u503c\u7684<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f<\/span>\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u53d8\u5316\u7cfb\u6570\u968f<\/span>\u5bf9\u8c61\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u660e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u968f\u7740\u5bf9\u8c61\u6570\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4f30\u8ba1\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684<\/span>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73<\/span>\u4e0e\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7ed3\u5408<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u8ddd\u79bb<\/span>\u7684\u8f83\u5f31\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u201c\u6709\u9650\u4fe1\u5fc3\u201d\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u91cd\u89c6\u4e0e\u81ea\u8eab\u89c2\u70b9\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/div>\n

\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90:iStock<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u91cf\u5316\u5206\u6790\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u524a\u5f31\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5728\u6c47\u603b\u89c2\u70b9\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n

3.4 \u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u201c\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

<\/span>\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u5df2\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u63d0\u9ad8\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u5bfb\u627e\u201c\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u201d\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ed6\u4eec\u610f\u89c1\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u627e\u5230\u5b58\u5728\u9690\u85cf\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5ffd\u89c6\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e24\u7c7b\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u5dee\u5f02\uff08<\/span>p<\/em> = 0.938\uff0c\u7528Welch\u7684<\/span>t<\/em>-\u68c0\u9a8c\u5bf9\u6570\u8f6c\u6362\u540e\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7b97\u672f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3001\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u548c\u4e09\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u5f53\u4e2d\u90fd\u672a\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u989d\u5916\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4f7f\u7528\u793e\u4f1a\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u6216\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u9644\u52a0\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u5173\u4e8e\u603b\u4f53\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u9700\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5c31\u80fd\u5145\u5206\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n

3.5 \u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u4e0e\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6a21\u62df\u4e2a\u4f53\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u5316\u8ba1\u7b97\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u5f53\u6f5c\u5728\u7684<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\u5df2\u77e5\uff0c\u6216<\/span>\u4e2a\u4f53<\/span>\u7684\u6743\u529b\/\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u65f6\uff0c\u6a21\u62df\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u89c4\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5bf9<\/span>\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f30\u503c\u4e0e\u96c6\u4f53\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u805a\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u4e00\u822c\u5316\u8ba1\u7b97<\/span>\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/span>\uff0c\u751f\u6210\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u8303\u56f4\u4ee5\u4e00\u5b9a\u6982\u7387\u5305\u62ec\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u63d0\u9ad8\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u4e5f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u5927\u5c0f\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/div>\n

\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90:iStock<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u666e\u904d\u3001\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u6768\u6e05\u6021<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5ba1\u6821\uff1a\u5f20\u6d2a\u3001<\/span>\u674e\u5468\u56ed<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u738b\u6021\u853a<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n


<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u89e3\u8bfb\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u52a8\u6001\u5d4c\u5165\u6280\u672f<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u89e3\u8bfb:\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u8c03\u5ea6\u7b97\u6cd5\u6709\u671b\u5c06\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u6570\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u4e00\u534a<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u524d\u6cbf\u7efc\u8ff0\uff1a\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u636e\u7eb7\u7e41\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u6355\u6349\u5176\u4e2d\u7ed3\u6784\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u524d\u6cbf\u7efc\u8ff0\uff1a\u4ece\u7ec6\u80de\u5230\u690d\u7269\u4eff\u751f\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6f14\u53d8<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u56e2\u961f\u62db\u65b0\u5566\uff01<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"
<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u96c6\u667aQQ\u7fa4\uff5c292641157
\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\uff5czhangqian@swarma.org
\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cwangting@swarma.org<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n

\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427!<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\u96c6\u667a\"<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u59cb\u53d1\u4e8e\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8 <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90:iStock \u5bfc\u8bed \u9664\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u80fd\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u5757\u672a\u5145\u5206\u6316\u6398\u7684\u5b9d\u85cf\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u968f\u7740\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u90fd\u66f4\u52a0\u5bb9\u6613\u6536\u96c6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u5982\u4f55\u805a\u5408\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e2a\u4f53\u610f\u89c1\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5177\u6709\u73b0\u5b9e\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002 \u7fa4\u4f53\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4f53\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u662f\u66f4\u806a\u660e\u8fd8\u662f\u66f4\u611a\u8822\uff1f\u53e4\u8bed\u4e2d\u65e2\u6709\u201c\u4e09\u4e2a\u81ed\u76ae\u5320\uff0c\u9876\u4e2a\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u201c\u4e09\u4eba\u6210…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[19],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1728"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1728"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13456,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1728\/revisions\/13456"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1728"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=1728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}