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\u6b64\u6b212019-nCoV\u75ab\u60c5\u59cb\u4e8e\u6b66\u6c49\u534e\u5357\u6d77\u9c9c\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u8fc5\u901f\u6269\u6563\u5230\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u5e02\u751a\u81f3\u4e16\u754c\u591a\u56fd\uff0c\u8ffd\u6839\u6eaf\u6e90\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u90fd\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u8005\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u548c\u6b66\u6c49\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6709\u5173\u8054(\u6709\u6b66\u6c49\u65c5\u884c\u53f2\u6216\u63a5\u89e6\u53f2)\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u6b64\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u6b63\u503c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u8282\u65e5\u2014\u2014\u6625\u8282\uff0c\u636e2020\u5e741\u670826\u65e5\u6b66\u6c49\u5e02\u957f\u5468\u5148\u65fa\u5728\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u4eba\u6c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5173\u4e8e\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u9632\u63a7\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u622a\u6b6226\u65e5\u665a\uff0c\u7ea6\u6709500\u4e07\u4eba\u79bb\u5f00\u6b66\u6c49\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709900\u4e07\u4eba\u7559\u5728\u6b66\u6c49\u3002\u8bb8\u5c0f\u53ef\u7b49[16]\u5bf9\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u524d\uff08\u59d1\u4e14\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u5c01\u57ce\uff09\u4ece\u6b66\u6c49\u6d41\u51fa\u7684500\u4e07\u4eba\u662f\u9003\u79bb\u8fd8\u662f\u6b63\u5e38\u79bb\u5f00\u505a\u4e86\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5e74\u524d\u6b63\u5e38\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u5c01\u57ce\u524d10\u5c0f\u65f6\u79bb\u5f00\u6b66\u6c49\u768430\u4e07\u4eba\u5f02\u4e8e\u5f80\u5e38\u3002\u5c01\u57ce\u524d10\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u6709250\u4f59\u5217\u8f66\u4ece\u6b66\u6c49\u51fa\u53d1\u524d\u5f80\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u5730\u3002\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6fc0\u6d3b\u4e86\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u957f\u7a0b\u94fe\u63a5\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f972019-nCoV\u8fc5\u901f\u6269\u6563\u5230\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u5e02<\/strong>\uff08\u56fe2d\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/strong>\u6839\u636e\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u5927\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6570\u636e[1]\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7701\u5e02\u786e\u8bca\u4eba\u6570\u548c\u88ab\u6fc0\u6d3b\u7684\u957f\u7a0b\u8fde\u8fb9\u6570\uff08\u75ab\u533a\uff09\u57fa\u672c\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4\uff08Spearman\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u65700.8710\uff0cP<0.05\u3002\uff09\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5e7f\u4e1c\u548c\u6d59\u6c5f\u7684\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u524d\u6d41\u5165\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u53ef\u662f2\u67084\u65e5\u786e\u8bca\u4eba\u6570\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\uff08\u56fe2d\uff09\uff1f \uff08\u6ce8\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u7701\u4efd\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u9694\u79bb\u63aa\u65bd\u65e9\u665a\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3001\u533b\u7597\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u7b49\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u4f1a\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\u8fd9\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u6027\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u707e\u96be\u7684\u5178\u578b\u4f8b\u8bc1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n
\u56fe 2\uff1a\u6b66\u6c49\u65b0\u578b\u80ba\u708e2\u67084\u65e510\u65f6\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
a)\u5168\u56fd\u75ab\u60c5\u5730\u56fe\uff1b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
b)\u786e\u8bca\u4eba\u6570\u53ca\u7591\u4f3c\u4eba\u6570\u53d8\u5316\uff1b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
c)\u6cbb\u6108\u53ca\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u53d8\u5316\uff1b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
d)\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u524d\u6d41\u516520\u7701\u5e02\u4eba\u5458\u5360\u6bd4\u4e0e2\u67084\u65e520\u7701\u5e02\u786e\u8bca\u4eba\u6570\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


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\n
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\n
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\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7279\u6027<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u610f\u5473\u7740\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u975e\u5e38\u5bb9\u6613<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u6027\u3002\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u8282\u70b9\u5ea6\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u5c11\u90e8\u5206\u8282\u70b9\u5ea6\u5f88\u5927\uff1b\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u5448\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u5ea6\u5177\u6709\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u8282\u70b9\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4f20\u64ad\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4e00\u822c\u4e0d\u540c\uff08\u56fe3\uff09[9]\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4f20\u64ad\u8282\u70b9\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7814\u7a76[5\uff0c6\uff0c9-11\uff0c34]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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           <\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe 3\uff1a\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u6709\u5dee\u522b\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u611f\u67d3\u6e90\uff08\u8282\u70b9\uff09\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u89c4\u6a21\u5bf9\u6bd4[9]\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

a\u548cb\u4e2d\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u611f\u67d3\u8282\u70b9\u5ea6\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u6838\u6570\uff08\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u5c42\u6570\uff09\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e3a\u4e86\u8861\u91cf\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u8d4b\u4e88\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u4ee5\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b[11]\uff0c\u5982SIS\uff0cSIR\uff0cSEIR[22]\u7b49\uff0c\u4ee5\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4f20\u67d3\u6e90\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u91cf\u4eff\u771f\u83b7\u53d6\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u7a33\u5b9a\u540e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u51fa\u53d1\u611f\u67d3\u8282\u70b9\u6570\u636e\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8282\u70b9\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\uff08\u5ea6\u3001\u4ecb\u6570\u3001\u6838\u6570\u3001\u63a5\u8fd1\u5ea6\u7b49\u5404\u7c7b\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5176\u4f20\u64ad\u80fd\u529b\u5dee\u522b\u5f88\u5927[9]\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u522b[8\uff0c12]\u3002\u5c06\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u4e0e\u6062\u590d\u7387\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4f20\u64ad\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff08\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u751f\u7269\u6570\u5b66\u4e2d\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u6570\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f20\u64ad\u5f3a\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7\u67d0\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\uff08\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u6570\u5927\u4e8e1\uff09\uff0c\u75be\u75c5\u4f1a\u8513\u5ef6\u5f00\u6765\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\uff08\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u6570\u5c0f\u4e8e1\uff09\uff0c\u75be\u75c5\u5c06\u5f97\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u89c4\u5219\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u968f\u673a\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u60ca\u5947\u5730\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7f51\u7edc\u91cc\u4f20\u64ad\u9608\u503c\u8d8b\u4e8e0\uff08\u56fe4\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6240\u6709\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u5728\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u975e\u5e38\u5bb9\u6613\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u7a76\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u5ea6\u5927\u7684\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3ahubs\u3002hubs\u4e00\u65e6\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u8005\uff08\u8d85\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u8005\u2014\u63a5\u89e6\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u9ad8\u5371\u4eba\u7fa4\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u6cae\u4e27\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u6709\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u6027\uff0c\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\u8bf4\u6ca1\u6709\u529e\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u964d\u4f4e\u4f20\u67d3\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6765\u904f\u5236\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u91c7\u7528\u9694\u79bb\uff0c\u5207\u65ad\u4f20\u64ad\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u80af\u5b9a\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u80ba\u708e\u5b58\u5728\u4eba\u4f20\u4eba\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9694\u79bb\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ece23\u65e5\u6b66\u6c49\u91c7\u53d6\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u79bb\u63aa\u65bd\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u7701\u5e02\u8fc5\u901f\u542f\u52a8\u5404\u7c7b\u9694\u79bb\u4e3e\u63aa\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u963b\u65ad\u4e862019-nCoV\u7684\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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     <\/span><\/section>\n
\u56fe 4\uff1a\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
a)\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b[12\uff0c22]\uff1b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
b)\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u89c4\u5219\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6bd4[1]\uff1b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
c)\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6bd4[1\uff0c8]\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


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\u56de\u987e2003\u5e74\u9020\u6210\u5168\u7403700\u4f59\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684SARS\u4f20\u64ad[23\uff0c24]\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0SARS\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6e90\u5934\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8759\u8760[25]\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ee5\u524d\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u679c\u5b50\u72f8[26\uff0c27]\uff0c\u679c\u5b50\u72f8\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e2d\u95f4\u5bbf\u4e3b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662fSARS\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u53d7\u5bb3\u8005\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5e7f\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u5173\u4e8eSARS\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u9014\u5f84\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff1a\u8759\u8760\u2014\u2014\u679c\u5b50\u72f8\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u7fa4\u30022019-nCoV\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u6ca1\u6709\u786e\u5b9a\u4e2d\u95f4\u5bbf\u4e3b\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u7269\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5df2\u6709\u5173\u4e8e2019-nCoV\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u7814\u7a76[28\uff0c29\uff0c30]\u3002<\/strong>\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u662f2019-nCoV\u4f20\u64ad\u5177\u6709\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\uff0c<\/strong>\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f1-14\u5929\u4e0d\u7b49\uff0c\u5e73\u57477\u5929\uff0c\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u957f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u75ab\u60c5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e00\u4e9b\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u8005\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u7b2c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u53d1\u73b0\u5e76\u9694\u79bb\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u53d1\u73b0\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5411\u524d\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\u548c\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b66\u6c49\u534e\u5357\u6d77\u9c9c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7fa4\u96c6\u805a\u4e4b\u5730\uff0c\u65b0\u578b\u80ba\u708e\u60a3\u8005\u9996\u5148\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u4ee5\u5bb6\u5ead\u6216\u5c0f\u533a\u96c6\u805a\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u7701\u5e02\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u4ee5\u5bb6\u5ead\u6216\u670b\u53cb\u5173\u7cfb\u5708\u96c6\u805a\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u62a5\u5bfc[31\uff0c32]\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u8bf4\u660e\u65b0\u578b\u80ba\u708e\u4f20\u64ad\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u805a\u7c7b\u7279\u70b9<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u548c2003\u5e74\u7684SARS\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff08\u56fe5\uff09\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u9ad8\u805a\u7c7b\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u56e2\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff0c\u5e94\u7acb\u5373\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u9694\u79bb\u5e76\u5bf9\u793e\u56e2\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u5458\u8fdb\u884c\u9694\u79bb\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u9632\u6b62\u6269\u6563\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe 5\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>2003\u5e74SARS\u5728\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u8005\u4f20\u64ad\u94fe\u5177\u6709\u805a\u7c7b\u7279\u70b9[33]\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u3001\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u3001\u9ad8\u805a\u7c7b\u548c\u5f31\u94fe\u63a5\u4f18\u52bf\u7b49\u7279\u6027<\/strong>\u3002\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u7279\u6027\u548c\u5f31\u94fe\u63a5\u4f18\u52bf\u52a0\u901f\u6269\u6563\uff1b\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7279\u6027\u4e3a\u4f20\u64ad\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fbf\u5229\uff1b\u9ad8\u805a\u7c7b\u7279\u6027\u4f7f\u5f97\u4f20\u64ad\u5177\u6709\u5bb6\u5ead\u6216\u5c0f\u533a\u96c6\u805a\u6027\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd1\u671f\u6b66\u6c492019-nCoV\u75ab\u60c5<\/strong>\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u643a\u5e26\u8005\u5e26\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u65f6\u6ede\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65f6\u6ede\u6027\u4e5f\u4e3a\u65b0\u578b\u80ba\u708e\u7684\u9632\u63a7\u5e26\u4e86\u7684\u9690\u60a3\u548c\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4ee5\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6307\u5bfc\uff0c\u9632\u63a7\u75be\u75c5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4e3e\u63aa\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7279\u6027\u4e0a\u53bb\u89e3\u8bfb\uff1a\u9996\u5148\u53d1\u73b0\u611f\u67d3\u6e90\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u611f\u67d3\u6e90\uff0c\u5207\u65ad\u957f\u7a0b\u4f20\u64ad\u94fe\u63a5\uff08\u5207\u65ad\u822a\u7a7a\u3001\u94c1\u8def\u3001\u9ad8\u901f\uff09\u9632\u63a7\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u8513\u5ef6\uff1b<\/strong>\u5176\u6b21\u57ce\u5e02\u3001\u793e\u533a\u3001\u5c0f\u533a\u5230\u5bb6\u5ead\u9010\u7ea7\u9694\u79bb\u9632\u63a7\u4e0d\u540c\u793e\u56e2\u95f4\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u51cf\u5c11\u4f20\u64ad\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u7279\u6b8a\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u963b\u65ad\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u9632\u62a4\u65b9\u9762\u8981\u517b\u6210\u597d\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u536b\u751f\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u6234\u53e3\u7f69\u52e4\u6d17\u624b\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u805a\u96c6\u6d3b\u52a8<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e0d\u628a\u75be\u75c5\u5e26\u56de\u5bb6\u3002\u7981\u98df\u7981\u552e\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u7269\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ed9\u75c5\u6bd2\u5165\u4fb5\u4eba\u7c7b\u5236\u9020\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u795d\u613f\u5927\u5bb6\u5e73\u5e73\u5b89\u5b89\u5ea6\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65e5\u5b50\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong>\uff1a<\/section>\n

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[2] Watts DJ, Strogatz SH., Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks. Nature\uff0c 1998, 393 (6684): 440-442. <\/span><\/p>\n

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[5] Wang P, Chen Y, L\u00fc J, et al., Graphical features of functional genes in human protein interaction network. IEEE Trans. Biomed. Circuits Syst., 2016, 10(3): 707-720.<\/span><\/p>\n

[6] P. Wang, J L\u00fc, X Yu, Identification of important nodes in directed biological networks: a network motif approach. PLoS One, 9(8): e106132, 2014.<\/span><\/p>\n

[7]Granovetter M, The strength of weak ties. Amer. J. Sociol.,1973, 78, 1360-80.<\/span><\/p>\n

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[9]Kitsak M, Gallos LK, Havlin S, et al., Identification of influential spreaders in complex networks. Nat. Phys., 2010, 6: 888-893. <\/span><\/p>\n

[10]Wang P\uff0c Tian C\uff0c Lu J\uff0c Identifying influential spreaders in artificial complex networks. J. Syst. Sci. & Complex.\uff0c 2014\uff0c 27: 650-665.<\/span><\/p>\n

[11]L\u00fc LY, Chen D, Ren X, et al., Vital nodes identification in complex networks. Phys. Rep., 2016, 650: 1–63. <\/span><\/p>\n

[12] Zhang ZK, Liu C, Zhan XX, et al., Dynamics of information diffusion and its applications on complex networks. Phys. Rep., 2016, 651: 1-34.<\/span><\/p>\n

[13]Wei X, Wu X, Chen S, Lu J, Chen G, Cooperative epidemic spreading on a two-layered interconnected network. SIAM J. Applied Dyn. Syst., 2018. 17(2): 1503-1520.<\/span><\/p>\n

[14]Xu S, Wang P, Zhang CX, L\u00fc J, Spectral learning algorithm reveals propagation capability of complex network. IEEE Trans. Cyber., 2019, 49(12): 4253-4261.<\/span>
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[15]\u767e\u5ea6\u75ab\u60c5\u5b9e\u65f6\u5927\u6570\u636e\u62a5\u544a\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
https:\/\/voice.baidu.com\/act\/newpneumonia\/newpneumonia\/?from=osari_pc_3.<\/span><\/section>\n
[16]\u5c01\u57ce\u524d\uff0c\u6b66\u6c49\u4eba\u51fa\u884c\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u662f\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u5927\u6570\u636e\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
 https:\/\/baijiahao.baidu.com\/s?id=1656605112631631045&wfr=spider&for=pc.<\/span><\/section>\n
[17] \u9632\u63a7\u529b\u5ea6\u591a\u5927\u624d\u80fd\u904f\u5236\u75ab\u60c5\u53d1\u5c55\uff1f\u7f51\u7edc\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u63a8\u6f14\u7ed9\u4f60\u7b54\u6848\uff1ahttps:\/\/m.thepaper.cn\/user_3730791.<\/span><\/section>\n
[18]\u6269\u6563\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u7ba1\u5236\u3001\u81ea\u6211\u9694\u79bb\uff0c\u54ea\u4e2a\u66f4\u80fd\u904f\u5236\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\uff1fhttps:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=18233<\/span><\/section>\n
[19]\u5468\u6d9b\uff1a\u6b66\u6c49\u80ba\u708e\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u6570\u4e0eSARS\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u786e\u5c5e\u53ef\u9632\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\uff1ahttps:\/\/new.qq.com\/omn\/20200126\/20200126A08P9W00.html?pc.<\/span><\/section>\n
[20] \u6b66\u6c49\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u63a7\u5236\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b\uff1ahttp:\/\/www.sohu.com\/a\/369783314_741733.<\/span><\/section>\n
[21]Tang B., Wang X., Li Q, et al., Estimation of the transmission risk of 2019-nCov and its implication for public health interventions. SSRN, 2020. https:\/\/ssrn.com\/abstract=3525558 or http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.3525558<\/span><\/section>\n
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[23]Ksiazek TG, Erdman D, Goldsmith CS, et al. A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome. N. Engl. J. Med., 2003, 348: 1953-1966.<\/span><\/section>\n
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[25]Hu B., Zeng LP, Yang XL, et al., Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus. PLoS Pathogens, 2017, 13(11): e1006698.<\/span><\/section>\n
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[27] Song HD, Tu CC, Zhang GW, et al.\uff0c Cross-host evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus in palm civet and human. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 2005, 102: 2430-2435. <\/span><\/section>\n
[28]Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, et al., A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N. Engl. J. Med., 2020. Doi: 10.1056\/NEJMoa2001017.<\/span><\/section>\n
[29]Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al., Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet, 2020. Doi:10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30183-5.<\/span><\/section>\n
[30] Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, et al., A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature, 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-020-2012-7.<\/span><\/section>\n
[31] \u6cb3\u5357\u5404\u5730\u75c5\u4f8b\u6700\u65b0\u8be6\u60c5\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u8be6\u7ec6\u5230\u6751\uff0c\u591a\u4f8b\u4eb2\u5c5e\u95f4\u611f\u67d3\uff01: https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MjM5OTMxNjE0Mw==&mid=2651611513&idx=1&sn=ad3daa31b3e7c9264c56be2c915d48c0&chksm=bcc59eb98bb217af4f90027070777579e764527be6a3a06890c20f21b6fd81b6a83b58719f7a&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0204FvXzdTd23Fx3aIMhxlk9&sharer_sharetime=1580784636125&sharer_shareid=36376b31ed34dad00848b11de09dfe0a#rd<\/span><\/section>\n
[32] \u4e00\u573a\u540c\u5b66\u4f1a\uff0c6\u4eba\u786e\u8bca\u67d3\u75c5\uff01: https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MjM5OTAzNDE3NA==&mid=2659653353&idx=2&sn=3c1f25fad38c11be9eee234daf9a7d86&chksm=bdb21ab88ac593ae4ee6325152ff196c914d210e1202b4312a4782ea0b3a60dcc2f8bba6c73a&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=&sharer_sharetime=1580787243647&sharer_shareid=0a4c190c035057d9555e8de85cb27998#rd<\/span><\/section>\n
[33]\u767e\u5ea6\u6587\u5e93\uff1aSARS-MERS\u53ca\u5176\u6eaf\u6e90\uff1ahttps:\/\/wenku.baidu.com\/view\/6a93aa0ecbaedd3383c4bb4cf7ec4afe04a1b1d3.html<\/span><\/section>\n
[34]H. Liu , X.Xu , J. Lu ,  G. Chen, Z. Zeng, Optimal pinning control of complex dynamical networks based on spectral properties of grounded Laplacian matrices, IEEE Trans. Syst., Man, Cyber.\uff0cin press , 2019.<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org
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