{"id":18394,"date":"2020-02-13T20:52:54","date_gmt":"2020-02-13T12:52:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=18394"},"modified":"2020-02-13T20:52:54","modified_gmt":"2020-02-13T12:52:54","slug":"%e6%b2%b3%e5%8d%971105%e4%be%8b%e6%96%b0%e5%86%a0%e8%82%ba%e7%82%8e%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%91%8a%e8%af%89%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=18394","title":{"rendered":"\u6cb3\u53571105\u4f8b\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u6570\u636e\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2019\u5e74\u5e95\u7206\u53d1\u81ea\u6b66\u6c49\u534e\u5357\u6d77\u9c9c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u80ba\u708e(COVID-19)\u81f3\u4eca\u5df2\u7ecf\u6301\u7eed\u4e00\u6708\u6709\u4f59\uff0c\u622a\u6b622020\u5e742\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u56fd44700\u4f59\u4f8b\u786e\u8bca\uff0c1110\u4f59\u4f8b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u5404\u79cd\u62a5\u5bfc\u53ca\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0cCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e2003\u5e74\u7684SARS\u4e4b\u5904\u6709\u5982\u4e0b\u51e0\u70b9[1-3]<\/span>\uff1a1\uff09\u4f20\u67d3\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\uff1b2\uff09\u5177\u6709\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\uff1b3\uff09\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f20\u67d3\uff1b4\uff09\u81f4\u6b7b\u7387\u4f4e\u3002\u5bfc\u81f4\u6b64\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u4ee5\u9632\u63a7[4-10]<\/span>\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u7684\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b, \u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u53d6\u52301047\u4f8b\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u6027\u522b\u548c\u5e74\u9f84\u4fe1\u606f, \u4ece\u5168\u7701\u53ca18\u5730\u5e02\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790, \u5177\u4f53\u89c1\u56fe2\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u56fe 2. \u6cb3\u5357\u77011047\u4e2a\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u6027\u522b\u53ca\u5e74\u9f84\u5206\u5e03\u3002A.\u6574\u4f53\u7537\u5973\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1bB.18\u5730\u5e02\u7537\u5973\u6570\u91cf\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1bC.\u6574\u4f53\u5e74\u9f84\u5206\u5e03\uff1bD. 18\u5730\u5e02\u5e74\u9f84\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790(\u56fe2)\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\u76841047\u4f8b\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e2d\u7537\u6027\u536055%\uff0c\u5973\u6027\u536045%\uff0c\u7537\u6027\u5c45\u591a\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7537\u6027\u4eba\u53e3\u6574\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u591a\u4e8e\u5973\u6027\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7537\u6027\u5916\u51fa\u6d3b\u52a8\u8f68\u8ff9\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u5973\u6027\u66f4\u5e7f\u7b49\u3002\u5bf9\u5404\u5730\u5e02\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u8f83\u91cd\u7684\u90d1\u5dde\u3001\u4fe1\u9633\u3001\u9a7b\u9a6c\u5e97\u7537\u6027\u5360\u591a\u6570\uff1b\u800c\u5357\u9633\u5973\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u5c45\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u60a3\u8005\u5e74\u9f84\u57fa\u672c\u5448\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff0c41-50\u5c81\u6700\u591a\uff0c\u5360\u6bd422.59%\uff1b21-60\u5c81\u4eba\u5458\u5360\u6bd481.19%\uff0c\u5e74\u9f84\u572821-60\u5c81\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u8981\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u5916\u51fa\u52a1\u5de5\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4ea4\u5708\u6bd4\u8f83\u5e7f\u6cdb\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u662f\u67d3\u75c5\u91cd\u70b9\u4eba\u7fa4\u300218\u5730\u5e02\u5404\u5e74\u9f84\u6bb5\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\u548c\u5168\u7701\u8d8b\u52bf\u57fa\u672c\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u75c5\u4f8b\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u5206\u5e03<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u662f\u6307\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u4ece\u4fb5\u5165\u4eba\u4f53\u81f3\u4eba\u4f53\u6700\u65e9\u51fa\u73b0\u4e34\u5e8a\u75c7\u72b6\u7684\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4[26,27]<\/span>\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u957f\u77ed\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u79cd\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u4e00\u822c\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u5bf9\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fdb\u5165\u673a\u4f53\u7684\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u6570\u91cf\u3001\u6bd2\u529b\u3001\u7e41\u6b96\u80fd\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u673a\u4f53\u7684\u62b5\u6297\u529b\u5f3a\u5f31\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u6d4b\u5f97\u7684\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u5e94\u8be5\u56f4\u7ed5\u67d0\u4e2a\u503c\u8fd1\u4f3c\u670d\u4ece\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03[28]<\/span>\u3002\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u4e00\u822c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u751f\u7406\u89c2\u5bdf\u6216\u751f\u7269\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6d4b\u5b9a[28]<\/span>\u3002\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u4f30\u8ba1\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u8f83\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u96be\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u53d1\u75c5\u65f6\u95f4\u662f\u5bb9\u6613\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u611f\u67d3\u65f6\u95f4\u5374\u5f88\u96be\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u5b9a\u4ece\u9996\u6b21\u63a5\u89e6\u53ef\u7591\u4eba\u5458\u6216\u4ece\u6b66\u6c49\u8fd4\u7a0b(\u4e0b\u79f0\u66b4\u9732)\u65e5\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u81f3\u51fa\u73b0\u8eab\u4f53\u4e0d\u9002\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u4e3a\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u641c\u96c6\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8bb8\u591a\u662f\u51e0\u6708\u51e0\u65e5\u79bb\u5f00\u6b66\u6c49\u6216\u63a5\u89e6\u6b66\u6c49\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u51e0\u6708\u51e0\u65e5\u53d1\u75c5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982 \u5357\u9633\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f8b\u75c5\u4f8b\u5468\u67d0\u67d0\u7684\u513f\u5b50\u57281\u67086\u65e5\u79bb\u5f00\u6b66\u6c49\u5230\u793e\u65d7\u5bb6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u4e8c\u4eba\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u5468\u67d0\u67d02\u67083\u65e5\u53d1\u75c5\uff0c\u5176\u513f\u5b50\u672a\u60a3\u75c5\uff1b\u6839\u636e\u73b0\u6709\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u6392\u9664\u5468\u67d0\u67d0\u4e2d\u95f4\u6709\u63a5\u89e6\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u643a\u5e26\u75c5\u6bd2\u8005(\u4f20\u64ad\u94feA\u5230B\u5230C\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e2d\u95f4\u7684B\u672a\u77e5)\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u4ece1\u67086\u65e5\u52302\u67083\u65e5\u7edf\u8ba1\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\uff0c\u5219\u4e3a 28\u5929, \u8fd9\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7eaf\u7cb9\u6839\u636e\u7f51\u7edc\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u63cf\u8ff0\u4fe1\u606f\u800c\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6211\u4eec\u641c\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c460\u4f8b\u60a3\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5927\u81f4\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u56fd\u5bb6\u516c\u5e03\u768414\u5929\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u5927\u4e8e14\u5929\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f59\u4e0b\u7684439\u4f8b\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u89c1\u56fe3\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u56fe 3. \u6cb3\u5357\u62a5\u544a\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e2d439\u4f8b\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u5206\u5e03. A\uff1a\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4eba\u6570\u76ee\u5206\u5e03\uff1bB\uff1a\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u4ece\u5c0f\u5230\u5927\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4eba\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7d2f\u79ef\u5206\u5e03\uff1bC. \u4ece\u66b4\u9732\u5230\u60a3\u75c5\u4eba\u6570\u8f6c\u79fb\u56fe\uff0c\u56fe\u4e2d\u8282\u70b9\u5927\u5c0f\u548c\u5f53\u5929\u66b4\u9732\u4eba\u6570\u548c\u786e\u8bca\u4eba\u6570\u4e4b\u548c\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4\uff0c\u8fb9\u7684\u7c97\u7ec6\u548c\u4eba\u6570\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4\uff1bD.\u4ece1\u67085\u65e5\u52302\u67087\u65e5\u6bcf\u5929\u8f6c\u5165\u8f6c\u51fa\u4eba\u6570\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u8f6c\u5165\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u60a3\u75c5\uff0c\u8f6c\u51fa\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u66b4\u9732\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u88681\uff1a439\u4f8b\u75c5\u4eba\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u7edf\u8ba1\u4fe1\u606f<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/td>\n

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0<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/td>\n

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14<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/td>\n

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6.5376<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/td>\n

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7<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/td>\n

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4<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/td>\n

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14.8839<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7531\u56fe3\u53ca\u88681\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c439\u4f8b\u75c5\u4f8b\u5e73\u5747\u4f30\u8ba1\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u4e3a6.5\u5929(\u88681)\uff0c\u4f17\u6570\u4e3a4\u5929\uff0c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u4e3a7\u5929\uff1b60%\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u4f30\u8ba1\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u57287\u5929\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u5047\u5b9a\u4ece\u9996\u6b21\u63a5\u89e6\u53ef\u7591\u4eba\u5458\u6216\u4ece\u6b66\u6c49\u8fd4\u7a0b\u65e5\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u81f3\u51fa\u73b0\u8eab\u4f53\u4e0d\u9002\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u4e3a\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u7a0d\u5fae\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u6b64\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u548c[29]<\/span>\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u57fa\u672c\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u957f\u7684\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u7ed9\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u65e9\u53d1\u73b0\u3001\u65e9\u9694\u79bb\u3001\u65e9\u6cbb\u7597\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u963b\u788d\uff1b\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6b64\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u5177\u6709\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u611f\u67d3\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6570\u6500\u5347\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8eCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u9632\u63a7\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9439\u4f8b\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d1\u670824\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u6bcf\u5929\u53d1\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u8f83\u591a(\u56fe3C\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65e5\u671f\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u5165\u5ea6)\uff0c\u66b4\u9732\u4eba\u6570\u57281\u67083\u65e5\u52302\u67088\u65e5\u90fd\u6709\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u66b4\u9732\u4eba\u6570\u591a\u4e8e\u786e\u8bca\u4eba\u6570(\u56fe3C, D)\uff1b1\u670813\u65e5\u52301\u670824\u65e5\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d1\u75c5\u4eba\u6570\u548c\u66b4\u9732\u4eba\u6570\u90fd\u6700\u591a(\u56fe3C, D)\u3002\u6b64\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u543b\u5408\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u6b63\u503c\u5bd2\u5047\u5f00\u59cb\u653e\u5047\u548c\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u524d\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u5458\u6d41\u52a8\u6bd4\u8f83\u9891\u7e41\uff1b\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u548c1\u670820\u65e5\u5b98\u65b9\u5ba3\u5e03COVID-19\u4eba\u4f20\u4eba\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u6b66\u6c49\u65c5\u884c\u53f2\u53ca\u63a5\u89e6\u53f2\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u7edf\u8ba1\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u7684\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u7684\u6b66\u6c49\u65c5\u884c\u53f2\u53ca\u548c\u53ef\u7591\u75c5\u4f8b\u7684\u63a5\u89e6\u53f2\u95ee\u9898 (\u89c1\u56fe4)\u3002526\u4f8b\u67d3\u75c5\u8005\u5177\u6709\u6b66\u6c49\u65c5\u884c\u53f2\uff0c\u5728\u5404\u5730\u5e02\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5982\u56fe4A\u6240\u793a\uff1b\u5176\u4e0e\u5404\u5730\u5e02\u76ee\u524d\u786e\u8bca\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\u89c1\u56fe4B. \u5176\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u641c\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709250\u4eba\u88ab\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u4ea4\u901a\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ea4\u901a\u65b9\u5f0f\u57fa\u672c\u6d89\u53ca\u94c1\u8def\u3001\u5927\u5df4\u548c\u81ea\u9a7e\u4e09\u7c7b\uff0c\u5404\u7c7b\u5360\u6bd4\u60c5\u51b5\u89c1\u56fe4B\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

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\u786e\u8bca\u4eba\u5458\u573a\u6240\u805a\u96c6\u6027\u53ca<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bb6\u65cf\u805a\u96c6\u6027\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\n

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\u7ed3\u8bba\u53ca\u63a2\u8ba8<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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[1]Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, et al., A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N. Engl. J. Med., 2020. Doi: 10.1056\/NEJMoa2001017.<\/span><\/p>\n

[2]Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al., Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet, 2020. Doi:10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30183-5.<\/span><\/p>\n

[3] Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, et al., A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature, 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-020-2012-7.<\/span><\/p>\n

[4]Pastor-Satorras R, Vespignani A, Epidemic spreading in scale free networks. Phys. Rev. Lett., 2001, 86, 14, 3200-3203.<\/span><\/p>\n

[5]Kitsak M, Gallos LK, Havlin S, et al., Identification of influential spreaders in complex networks. Nat. Phys., 2010, 6: 888-893.<\/span><\/p>\n

[6]Wang P, Tian C, Lu J, Identifying influential spreaders in artificial complex networks. J. Syst. Sci. & Complex., 2014, 27: 650-665.<\/span><\/p>\n

[7]L\u00fc LY, Chen D, Ren X, et al., Vital nodes identification in complex networks. Phys. Rep., 2016, 650: 1–63.<\/span><\/p>\n

[8] Zhang ZK, Liu C, Zhan XX, et al., Dynamics of information diffusion and its applications on complex networks. Phys. Rep., 2016, 651: 1-34.<\/span><\/p>\n

[9]Wei X, Wu X, Chen S, Lu J, Chen G, Cooperative epidemic spreading on a two-layered interconnected network. SIAM J. Applied Dyn. Syst., 2018. 17(2): 1503-1520.<\/span><\/p>\n

[10]Xu S, Wang P, Zhang CX, L\u00fc J, Spectral learning algorithm reveals propagation capability of complex network. IEEE Trans. Cyber., 2019, 49(12): 4253-4261.<\/span><\/p>\n

[11]\u767e\u5ea6\u75ab\u60c5\u5b9e\u65f6\u5927\u6570\u636e\u62a5\u544a: https:\/\/voice.baidu.com\/act\/newpneumonia\/newpneumonia\/?from=osari_pc_3.<\/span><\/p>\n

[12]\u5c01\u57ce\u524d,\u6b66\u6c49\u4eba\u51fa\u884c\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u662f\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u5927\u6570\u636e\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60:https:\/\/baijiahao.baidu.com\/s?id=1656605112631631045&wfr=spider&for=pc.<\/span><\/p>\n

[13] \u9632\u63a7\u529b\u5ea6\u591a\u5927\u624d\u80fd\u904f\u5236\u75ab\u60c5\u53d1\u5c55\uff1f\u7f51\u7edc\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u63a8\u6f14\u7ed9\u4f60\u7b54\u6848: https:\/\/m.thepaper.cn\/user_3730791.<\/span><\/p>\n

[14]\u6269\u6563\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u7ba1\u5236\u3001\u81ea\u6211\u9694\u79bb,\u54ea\u4e2a\u66f4\u80fd\u904f\u5236\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\uff1fhttps:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=18233<\/span><\/p>\n

[15]\u5468\u6d9b:\u6b66\u6c49\u80ba\u708e\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u6570\u4e0eSARS\u63a5\u8fd1,\u786e\u5c5e\u53ef\u9632\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5: https:\/\/new.qq.com\/omn\/20200126\/20200126A08P9W00.html?pc.<\/span><\/p>\n

[16] \u6b66\u6c49\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u63a7\u5236\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b: http:\/\/www.sohu.com\/a\/369783314_741733.<\/span><\/p>\n

[17]Tang B.,Wang X., Li Q, et al., Estimation of the transmission risk of 2019-nCov and its implication for public health interventions. SSRN, 2020. https:\/\/ssrn.com\/abstract=3525558 or http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.3525558<\/span><\/p>\n

[18] Pastor-Satorras R, Castellano C, Van Mieghem P, et al., Epidemic processes in complex networks. Rev. Mod. Phys., 2015, 87, 925-946.<\/span><\/p>\n

[19] \u6cb3\u5357\u5404\u5730\u75c5\u4f8b\u6700\u65b0\u8be6\u60c5\u53d1\u5e03,\u8be6\u7ec6\u5230\u6751,\u591a\u4f8b\u4eb2\u5c5e\u95f4\u611f\u67d3\uff01:https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MjM5OTMxNjE0Mw==&mid=2651611513&idx=1&sn=ad3daa31b3e7c9264c56be2c915d48c0&chksm=bcc59eb98bb217af4f90027070777579e764527be6a3a06890c20f21b6fd81b6a83b58719f7a&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0204FvXzdTd23Fx3aIMhxlk9&sharer_sharetime=1580784636125&sharer_shareid=36376b31ed34dad00848b11de09dfe0a#rd<\/span><\/p>\n

[20] \u4e00\u573a\u540c\u5b66\u4f1a,6\u4eba\u786e\u8bca\u67d3\u75c5\uff01: https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MjM5OTAzNDE3NA==&mid=2659653353&idx=2&sn=3c1f25fad38c11be9eee234daf9a7d86&chksm=bdb21ab88ac593ae4ee6325152ff196c914d210e1202b4312a4782ea0b3a60dcc2f8bba6c73a&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=&sharer_sharetime=1580787243647&sharer_shareid=0a4c190c035057d9555e8de85cb27998#rd<\/span><\/p>\n

[21]\u767e\u5ea6\u6587\u5e93\uff1aSARS-MERS\u53ca\u5176\u6eaf\u6e90: https:\/\/wenku.baidu.com\/view\/6a93aa0ecbaedd3383c4bb4cf7ec4afe04a1b1d3.html<\/span><\/p>\n

[22]\u534e\u5357\u519c\u4e1a\u5927\u5b66\u53d1\u73b0\u7a7f\u5c71\u7532\u4e3a\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u6f5c\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u5bbf\u4e3b, https:\/\/www.scau.edu.cn\/2020\/0207\/c1300a219015\/page.htm<\/span><\/p>\n

[23]\u9646\u541b\u5b89\uff0c\u738b\u6c9b\uff0c\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u3001\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u3001\u9ad8\u805a\u7c7b\u7279\u6027\u770b\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u80ba\u708e\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\uff0chttps:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&mid=2247501241&idx=1&sn=1ae1c9da26d80e0afea144373dfd2e31&chksm=e8979f34dfe0162203f71857afd23eaed24303f4a46de1e1f29ece3ebb7935e61e17789fbaaa&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=&sharer_sharetime=1580991328796&sharer_shareid=425d5330754fad3d1ddcad6b891fe133#rd<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org
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