{"id":19004,"date":"2020-04-11T16:18:53","date_gmt":"2020-04-11T08:18:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=19004"},"modified":"2020-04-11T16:18:53","modified_gmt":"2020-04-11T08:18:53","slug":"nature%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9a%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e6%9a%96%e5%b0%86%e9%80%a0%e6%88%90%e7%94%9f%e7%89%a9%e5%a4%9a%e6%a0%b7%e6%80%a7%e6%96%ad%e5%b4%96%e5%bc%8f%e4%b8%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=19004","title":{"rendered":"Nature\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u5c06\u9020\u6210\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u65ad\u5d16\u5f0f\u4e0b\u964d"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a
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The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change<\/span><\/h1>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2189-9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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1. \u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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2020\u5e74\uff0c\u957f\u6c5f\u767d\u9c9f\u5df2\u7ecf\u706d\u7edd\u7684\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u4e2d\u663e\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u8d77\u773c\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u5168\u7403\u751f\u7269\u706d\u7edd\u5927\u6f6e\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u6735\u6d6a\u82b1\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u6539\u9020\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u5730\u8d28\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u5730\u8d28\u5b66\u5bb6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\uff08Anthropocene\uff09\u201d<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53ca\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u9020\u6210\u5168\u7403\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u800c\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5730\u52a8\u690d\u7269\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u706d\u7edd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u7684\u5173\u952e\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u76f8\u5173\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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2. \u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8fbe\u6210<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u7684\u5347\u6e292\u00b0\u76ee\u6807<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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2015\u5e74\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\uff0c\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5b9a\u4e0b\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u5c06\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0a\u5347\u5e45\u5ea6\u63a7\u5236\u5728 2 \u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u4ee5\u5185\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0a\u5347\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u524d\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u65f6\u671f\u6c34\u5e73\u4e4b\u4e0a 1.5 \u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u4ee5\u5185\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8 3 \u5ea6\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u5728 2050 \u5e74\u540e\u5b9e\u73b0\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u51c0\u6392\u653e\u6e05\u96f6\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u95f4\u5168\u7403\u7684\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5728\u9010\u5e74\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u4e3a\u8fbe\u6210\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u6240\u9700\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u91cf\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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    <\/span>\u56fe3\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u6781\u5927\u7684\u51b2\u51fb<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

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3. \u53d8\u5316\u4e0d\u662f\u5faa\u5e8f\u6e10\u8fdb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u800c\u662f\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u6765\u7684<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e0b\u56fe\u5206\u522b\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5404\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u53ca\u5404\u7c7b\u751f\u6001\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ca\u7269\u79cd\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u54ea\u79cd\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u65ad\u5d16\u5f0f\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56fe4\uff1a\u73ca\u745a\u7901\u4e09\u89d2\u533a\uff0c\u6208\u58c1\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u6d41\u57df\uff0c\u521a\u679c\u6cb3\u6d41\u57df\u5728\u5931\u63a7\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u4e0b\u6c14\u6e29\u53ca\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dAbr\u548cTim\u8868\u793a\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u4e4b\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6700\u6fc0\u70c8\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u53ca\u5bf9\u5e94\u5e74\u4efd<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5982\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5173\u6ce8\u7279\u5b9a\u533a\u57df\u5185\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u751f\u7269\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u9002\u5e94\u73af\u5883\u6539\u53d8\u6816\u606f\u5730\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u539f\u672c\u70ed\u5e26\u533a\u57df\u7684\u751f\u7269\u8fdb\u5165\u6e29\u5e26\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f3a\u5c11\u5929\u654c\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u7269\u79cd\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u5f53\u5730\u7269\u79cd\u706d\u7edd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5e26\u6765\u6e29\u5e26\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u9510\u51cf\u3002<\/strong>\u56e0\u6b64\u8be5\u6587\u4f30\u8ba1\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u504f\u4f4e\u7684\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u66f4\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7684\u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u76d1\u63a7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n

\n
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4. \u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u9646\u5730\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u540c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u6709\u5c71\u8109\u4e0e\u6cb3\u6d41\u963b\u9694\u7684\u9646\u5730\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e2d\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u66f4\u5e7f\uff0c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e5f\u66f4\u52a0\u660e\u663e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe5\uff1a\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u9646\u5730\u6c14\u5019\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u53d8\u5316\u7a81\u7136\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u7eb5\u8f74\u662f\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u79cd\u751f\u7269\u7269\u79cd\uff0c\u6a2a\u8f74\u662f\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5de6\u56fe\u63cf\u8ff0\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53f3\u56fe\u63cf\u8ff0\u4f4d\u4e8e\u9646\u5730\u7684\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e2d\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5728\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cf\u4e0a\u7b26\u5408\u957f\u5c3e\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4e14\u8d8a\u591a\u5143\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8d8a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u800c\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u95f4\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7269\u79cd\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6ca1\u6709\u8fbe\u5230\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5230 2100 \u5e74\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u9646\u5730\u751f\u6001\u5708\u4e2d\u7684 38% \u7684\u5730\u533a\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u751f\u6001\u5708\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709 51% \u7684\u533a\u57df\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u6d77\u6d0b\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u66f4\u52a0\u8106\u5f31\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe6\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e0e\u9646\u5730\u4e2d\u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u53d7\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5bf9\u6bd4<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u8bbe\u5b9a\u81ea\u7136\u4fdd\u62a4\u533a\uff0c\u80fd\u5426\u907f\u514d\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d7\u5230\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe7\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5efa\u7acb\u4fdd\u62a4\u533a\u4e0e\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u7269\u79cd\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u533a\u57df\u5185 20% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9762\u79ef\u5904\u4e8e\u81ea\u7136\u4fdd\u62a4\u533a\uff0c\u5219\u79f0\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u4e3a\u4fdd\u62a4\u7a0b\u5ea6\u9ad8\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff08\u5b9e\u7ebf\uff09\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u7528\u865a\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u3002\u84dd\u8272\u7ea2\u8272\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e0e\u9646\u5730\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u9646\u5730\u4e2d\u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4f1a\u66f4\u65e9\u7684\u53d7\u5230\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ea2\u7ebf\u59cb\u7ec8\u4f4d\u4e8e\u84dd\u7ebf\u4e0a\u65b9\u3002\u800c\u4e24\u961f\u5b9e\u7ebf\u548c\u865a\u7ebf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5e76\u4e0d\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u4fdd\u62a4\u533a\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e94\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56fe\u4e2d 3-3.5 \u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u865a\u7ebf\u6307\u5404\u56fd\u5728 2020-2030 \u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u7684\u7ea6\u5b9a\u51cf\u6392\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u884c\u52a8\u65f6\uff0c2100 \u5e74\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u4f1a\u5347\u9ad8\u81f3\u5c113\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\n
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5. \u603b\u7ed3<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u75ab\u60c5\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505c\u6446\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u7684\u6392\u653e\u5728 2020Q1 \u5728\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u591f\u6539\u53d8\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5927\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u8981\u60f3\u907f\u514d\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8bf8\u5982\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\uff0c\u70ed\u6d6a\uff0c\u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4e27\u5931\u7b49\u4e0d\u5229\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u91c7\u53d6\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4e00\u65e6\u8d8a\u8fc7\u4e86\u67d0\u4e2a\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f1a\u7559\u7ed9\u5b50\u5b59\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u52a0\u8d2b\u7620\u7684\u661f\u7403\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u90ed\u745e\u4e1c<\/p>\n

\u5ba1\u6821\uff1a\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u5f20\u723d<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n
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<\/p>\n

\n
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\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u829d\u52a0\u54e5-50\u2103\u6781\u5bd2\u3001\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u706b\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u65e0\u96ea\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u5f02\u5e38\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6280\u672f\u5947\u70b9\u7684\u5148\u5146\uff01<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

PNAS\u524d\u6cbf\uff1a\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u5927\u6982\u7387\u5c06\u57282020\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7206\u53d1<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u5ba1\u89c6\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ef7\u503c\uff1a\u75c5\u6bd2\u6e90\u4e8e\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u7269\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u8be5\u6740<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u5947\u70b9\u4e34\u8fd1\uff1fNature\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\uff1a\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u4e0d\u6bd4\u751f\u7269\u66f4\u5feb<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u9996\u6b21\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8fdb\u5316\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u8d8b\u540c\u6f14\u5316\u589e\u52a0\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

2030\u5e74\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a\uff1fNature\u520a\u6587\u8b66\u544a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u662f\u771f\u7684\uff01<\/span><\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\n
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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8QQ\u7fa4\uff5c877391004<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n

\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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