{"id":19492,"date":"2020-05-04T21:48:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-04T13:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=19492"},"modified":"2020-05-04T21:48:00","modified_gmt":"2020-05-04T13:48:00","slug":"nature%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%ba%e5%8f%a3%e6%b5%81%e5%8a%a8%e5%8f%af%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e7%96%ab%e6%83%85%e4%bc%a0%e6%92%ad%ef%bc%8c%e5%b9%b6%e6%8f%ad%e7%a4%ba%e6%88%91%e5%9b%bd%e7%a1%ae","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=19492","title":{"rendered":"Nature\u6700\u65b0\uff1a\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u75ab\u60c5\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5e76\u63ed\u793a\u6211\u56fd\u786e\u8bca\u6570\u636e\u771f\u5b9e\u53ef\u9760"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2020\u5e741\u670823\u65e5\uff0c\u6b63\u503c\u6625\u8fd0\uff0c\u6b66\u6c49\u5e02\u5c01\u57ce\u3002\u5c01\u57ce\u63aa\u65bd\u7a76\u7adf\u6709\u591a\u91cd\u8981\u5462\uff1f<\/strong>\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fd\u9645\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520aNature\u6742\u5fd7\u4e8e4\u670829\u65e5\u520a\u767b\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u9a71\u4f7f\u4e86\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u300b\u3002\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u6d77\u91cf\u624b\u673a\u7528\u6237\u5b9a\u4f4d\u6570\u636e\uff08\u6c47\u603b\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u9690\u79c1\uff09\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e86\u5c01\u57ce\u524d\u6b66\u6c49\u6d41\u51fa\u5230\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u5730\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u636e\u6b64\u5206\u6790\u75ab\u60c5\u4f20\u64ad\u5168\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7814\u7a76\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ec5\u6839\u636e\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u975e\u5e38\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u5730\u70b9\u3001\u5f3a\u5ea6<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u65f6\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u6765\u5236\u5b9a\u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7684\u6297\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/p>\n

Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China<\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2284-y  <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u7ecf\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u77e5\u5c01\u57ce\u63aa\u65bd\u5bf9\u51cf\u5c11\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u6548\u679c\u663e\u8457\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u5c01\u57ce\u662f\u5426\u771f\u6b63\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u9632\u63a7\u6709\u6548\u5462\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7531\u56fd\u5bb6\u536b\u5065\u59d4\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u4e0e\u5404\u57ce\u5e02\u6709\u6b66\u6c49\u65c5\u884c\u53f2\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u6210\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/strong>\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u6b66\u6c49\u6d41\u51fa\u4eba\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5c06\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u643a\u5e26\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f15\u8d77\u5f53\u5730\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe\u4e2d\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u5730\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u4e0e\u5f53\u5730\u6709\u6b66\u6c49\u65c5\u884c\u53f2\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u91cd\u5408\u5ea6\u3002\u5bb9\u6613\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6b66\u6c49\u6d41\u51fa\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cf\uff08\u5373\u6709\u6b66\u6c49\u65c5\u884c\u53f2\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff09\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u4e5f\u8d8a\u591a\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56fe2\uff1a\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u548c\u6b66\u6c49\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u51fa\u91cf\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u5730\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5<\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u622a\u81f32\u670819\u65e5\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5404\u57ce\u5e02\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u548c\u6b66\u6c49\u6d41\u51fa\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cf\u7684Pearson\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u9ad8\u8fber = 0.952\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u5c55\u793a\u3002\u9ad8\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u7cbe\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u5404\u5730\u786e\u8bca\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u9884\u6d4b\u75ab\u60c5\u53d1\u5c55\u6700\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n


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\u9664\u4e86\u6b66\u6c49\u6d41\u51fa\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cf\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u5916\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6807\u4e0e\u5404\u5730\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5462\uff1f<\/strong>\u6587\u7ae0\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u51e0\u9879\u6307\u6807\uff1a <\/span><\/p>\n


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1. \u5404\u5730\u767e\u5ea6\u641c\u7d22\u4e0e\u75ab\u60c5\u76f8\u5173\u8bcd\u6c47 (\u4f8b\u5982\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u3001\u6d41\u611f\u3001SARS\u3001\u975e\u5178\u578b\u80ba\u708e\u3001\u53e3\u7f69\u7b49\uff09\u9891\u7387<\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u5404\u5730\u4eba\u53e3\u6570<\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u5404\u5730GDP<\/span><\/p>\n

4. \u5404\u5730\u8ddd\u6b66\u6c49\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u6e90\u6a21\u578b (risk source model)<\/strong>\u3002\u987e\u540d\u601d\u4e49\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5229\u7528\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u6570\u636e\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4ece\u67d0\u4e2a\u6e90\u5934\u5411\u5404\u5730\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u81f3\u5c11\u63d0\u524d\u4e00\u5468\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u75c5\u4f8b\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8<\/strong>\uff08R^2=0.927\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66<\/strong>\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u5730\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u98ce\u9669\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u4e3a\u5e94\u6025\u65b9\u6848\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u51b3\u7b56\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u5404\u5730\u5e94\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/strong>\u5982\u679c\u786e\u8bca\u6570\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\uff0c\u5219\u8bf4\u660e\u5e94\u5bf9\u8868\u73b0\u8f83\u5dee\uff08\u56fe\u4e2d\u7ea2\u70b9\uff09\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u5728\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u98ce\u9669\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u786e\u8bca\u6570\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\uff0c\u5219\u8bf4\u660e\u5e94\u5bf9\u8868\u73b0\u8f83\u597d\uff08\u56fe\u4e2d\u9ed1\u70b9\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe5\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u66f2\u9762\u4e3a\u5404\u5730\u533a\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u3002\u7ea2\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u8bca\u6570\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u3002\u9ed1\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u8bca\u6570\u6570\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u503c<\/strong><\/strong>
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\u8bba\u6587\u6700\u540e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9664\u624b\u673a\u6570\u636e\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u53cd\u6620\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u706b\u8f66\u7968\u3001\u6c7d\u8f66\u9ad8\u901f\u8d39\u7b49\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u7528\u5b9e\u65f6\u6570\u636e\u6765\u4e3a\u4eba\u529b\u3001\u7269\u8d44\u7684\u8c03\u914d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8bba\u6587\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u7fa4\u4f53\u6570\u636e\u3001\u7d2f\u8ba1\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u636e\u7b49\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u5206\u6790\u4ee3\u7801\u5df2\u968f\u8bba\u6587\u516c\u5e03\u5728Nature\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u3002\uff08https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2284-y\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8bba\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u8d3e\u8f7c\u3001\u56fd\u9632\u79d1\u6280\u5927\u5b66\u5415\u6b23\u3001\u897f\u5357\u4ea4\u901a\u5927\u5b66\u8881\u97f5\u3001\u6e56\u5357\u5de5\u5546\u5927\u5b66\u5f90\u6208\u3001 \u6df1\u5733\u9ad8\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u8d3e\u5efa\u6c11\u3001\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66Nicholas A. Christakis\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u76f8\u5173\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


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\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u65b0\u95fb\u7a3f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/news.yale.edu\/2020\/04\/29\/researchers-devise-new-model-track-covid-19s-spread<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6df1\u5733\u9ad8\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u65b0\u95fb\u7a3f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/tgb-AOqsnqDVEF3MSewREQ<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e9a\u6d32\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6742\u5fd7\u65b0\u95fb\u7a3f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.asianscientist.com\/2020\/04\/in-the-lab\/mobile-phone-data-track-covid-infection-wuhan-china\/<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u5218\u4e16\u5eb7<\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u5f20\u5e0c\u598d<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6b66\u6c49\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u63a7\u5236\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong><\/a>
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\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u3001\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u3001\u9ad8\u805a\u7c7b\u7279\u6027\u770b\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u80ba\u708e<\/strong><\/a>
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Nature\u547c\u5401\uff1a\u5e94\u5bf921\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\uff0c\u5404\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u5fc5\u987b\u8054\u5408\u8d77\u6765<\/strong><\/a>
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\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u9884\u6d4b |\u300a\u5df4\u62c9\u5df4\u897f\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u65b0\u4e66\u63a8\u8350<\/strong><\/a>
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\u53ec\u5524\u70ed\u7231\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4e50\u4e8e\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u4f60 | 2020 \u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u62db\u65b0<\/strong><\/a>
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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8QQ\u7fa4\uff5c877391004<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org
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\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n

\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\ud83d\udc47\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u66f4\u591a\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        \u5bfc\u8bed \u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u5c01\u57ce\u63aa\u65bd\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u5c01\u57ce\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6548\u679c\u5462\uff1f\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u591a\u5bb6\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u672f\u673a\u6784\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u5c01\u57ce\u63aa\u65bd\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002\u8bba\u6587\u4e8e4\u670829\u65e5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u52a0\u901f\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u5728Nature\u6742\u5fd7\u3002 \u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u65b0\u95fb\u7a3f\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff1a\u201c\u8bba\u6587\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u75be…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19484,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19492"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19492\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19492"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=19492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}