{"id":19605,"date":"2020-05-11T20:50:05","date_gmt":"2020-05-11T12:50:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=19605"},"modified":"2020-05-11T20:50:05","modified_gmt":"2020-05-11T12:50:05","slug":"pnas%e5%89%8d%e6%b2%bf%ef%bc%9a%e6%82%b2%e8%a7%82%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b50%e5%b9%b4%e5%90%8e%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%ef%bc%8c35%e7%9a%84%e5%8c%ba%e5%9f%9f%e4%b8%8d%e5%86%8d%e5%ae%9c%e5%b1%85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=19605","title":{"rendered":"PNAS\u524d\u6cbf\uff1a\u60b2\u89c2\u9884\u6d4b50\u5e74\u540e\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\uff0c35%\u7684\u533a\u57df\u4e0d\u518d\u5b9c\u5c45"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
  \u5bfc\u8bed<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u5c0f\u7ec4\u8fd1\u671f\u5728PNAS\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u201cFuture of the human climate niche\u201d\uff08\u4eba\u7c7b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\uff09\uff0c\u9884\u8a00\u5982\u679c\u6309\u7167\u5f53\u4eca\u7684\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u672a\u676550\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u4f1a\u670935\u4ebf\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u7531\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u62a5\u9053\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5bc6\u96c6\u5730\u767b\u4e0a\u65b0\u95fb\u5934\u6761\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u4eba\u5207\u8eab\u4f53\u4f1a\u5230\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u95ee\u9898\u6bd4\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u4e25\u91cd\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
Future of the human climate niche<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/early\/2020\/04\/28\/1910114117<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u9002\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u73af\u5883\u6b63\u5728\u6d88\u5931<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u81ea\u4eba\u7c7b\u767b\u4e0a\u5386\u53f2\u821e\u53f0\uff0c\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u6c14\u6e29\u3001\u6e7f\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u9002\u5b9c\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002\u63a2\u5bfb\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6240\u7559\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u8db3\u8ff9\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5927\u90fd\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u4e3a11\u00b0C-15\u00b0C\u7684\u533a\u57df\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u5168\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u572811\u00b0C-13\u00b0C\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u4e0a\u6d77\u572818.5\u00b0C\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u8fd1\u4e9b\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u6c14\u6e2915\u00b0C\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u907f\u6691\u80dc\u5730\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20\u8bcd\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe1\uff1a\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u5168\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u70ed\u56fe<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56fe\u4e2d\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u8d85\u8fc729\u00b0C\u4e14\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u6c99\u6f20\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ec5\u5360\u9646\u5730\u9762\u79ef\u76840.8%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u800c\u5982\u679c\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u7684\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u6309\u7167\u5f53\u4eca\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u52302070\u5e74\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0a\u53477.5\u00b0C\uff0c\u52a0\u4e4b\u9646\u5730\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u6d77\u6d0b\u5347\u6e29\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u533a\u57df\u7531\u9ed1\u8272\u53d8\u4e3a\u56fe\u4e2d\u9634\u5f71\u533a\u57df\u3002\u5c4a\u65f6\uff0c\u5e74\u5ea6\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u9ad8\u4e8e29\u00b0C\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5c06\u4f1a\u5360\u5168\u7403\u9646\u5730\u9762\u79ef\u768419%\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u5357\u4e9a\u3001\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u7b49\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u96c6\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u533a\u57df\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u670935\u4ebf\u4eba\u5c45\u4f4f\u4eba\u53e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6709\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u4eba\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u6781\u5ea6\u4e0d\u9002\u5b9c\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u8fc1\u5f80\u5176\u5b83\u5730\u65b9\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0d\u5728\u56fe\u4e2d\u9634\u5f71\u9ad8\u6e29\u533a\u57df\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u663e\u8457\u6539\u53d8\u5176\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

 
<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u5b9c\u5c45\u5e26\u751f\u5b58\u4e86\u6570\u5343\u5e74<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6570\u5343\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u3001\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\u548c\u7272\u755c\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5b9c\u5c45\u5e26\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u56fe2\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b9c\u5c45\u73af\u5883\u70ed\u56fe<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u7eb5\u8f74\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\uff0c\u6a2a\u8f74\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u6e7f\u5ea6\uff0c\u56fe\u4e2d\u8d8a\u9760\u8fd1\u7ea2\u8272\uff0c\u8d8a\u9002\u5b9c\u4eba\u7c7b\u751f\u5b58\u3002\u4e09\u5e45\u56fe\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5f53\u4ee3\uff08A\uff09\u3001500\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u4e2d\u4e16\u7eaa\uff08B\uff09\u30016000\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u53f2\u524d\u65f6\u4ee3\uff08C\uff09\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u533a\u57df\u6240\u5177\u5907\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u6e7f\u5ea6\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u79d1\u6280\u548c\u6587\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u9002\u5408\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u548c\u53f2\u524d\u65f6\u4ee3\u76f8\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

\u56fe3\uff1a\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\u548c\u5bb6\u755c\u53caGDP\u6240\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5b9c\u5c45\u5e26\u70ed\u56fe<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u6240\u793a\u4e0d\u6b62\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\u53ca\u7272\u755c\u4e5f\u6709\u9002\u5408\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002\u800c\u8861\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684GDP\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u6709\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u9ad8\u4ea7\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u5927\u5e45\u53d8\u5316\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u904f\u5236\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\u751f\u957f\u3002 <\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe4\uff1a\u5c0f\u9ea6\u4ea7\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6c14\u6e29\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5982\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u5a01\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u8bfa\u5fb7\u8c6a\u65af\u5728\u300a\u6c14\u5019\u8d4c\u573a\u300b\u4e2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5c0f\u9ea6\u4ea9\u4ea7\u91cf\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u964d\uff08\u56fe\u4e2d\u865a\u7ebf\u548c\u5b9e\u7ebf\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u4fdd\u5b88\u548c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff09\u3002\u5f53\u6e29\u5ea6\u53ea\u5347\u9ad81\u00b0C-2\u00b0C\u65f6\uff0c\u5c0f\u9ea6\u4ea7\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u6e29\u5ea6\u7ee7\u7eed\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ea7\u91cf\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u800c\u9002\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u751f\u4ea7\u751f\u6d3b\u3001\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8bba\u6587\u6807\u9898\u4e2dclimate niche\uff08\u6c14\u5019\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\uff09\u7684\u542b\u4e49\uff0c\u5373\u6307\u6700\u9002\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u6c14\u5019\u5b9c\u5c45\u5e26\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u4e0d\u5747\u5300\u7684<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u9762\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u4e1c\u5317\u7684\u5c0f\u4f19\u4f34\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u60f3\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u53d8\u6696\u4e86\u597d\u554a\u3002\u4e1c\u5317\u4e0d\u4f1a\u90a3\u4e48\u5bd2\u51b7\uff0c\u7cae\u98df\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7531\u4e8e\u5929\u6c14\u53d8\u6696\u800c\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u633a\u4e0d\u9519\u3002\u4f46\u4ece\u6574\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5f0a\u5927\u4e8e\u5229\u7684\u3002<\/span>
<\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n
\u56fe5\uff1a\u5f53\u524d\u4e0e2070\u5e74\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5b9c\u5c45\u5ea6\uff0c\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5e45\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2dA\u548cB\u5206\u522b\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u548c\u9884\u671f50\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5b9c\u5c45\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u56feC\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u548c2070\u5e74\u65f6\u6c14\u5019\u5b9c\u5c45\u5e26\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u7531\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u800c\u53d8\u7684\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u90e8\u5206\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7531\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u5b9c\u5c45\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e1c\u5317\u90e8\u53ca\u4e1c\u6b27\u5730\u533a\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u5b9c\u5c45\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\u56fe6\u6240\u793a\u7684\u5f53\u524d\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u53e3\u805a\u96c6\u5728\u5c11\u91cf\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff08\u989c\u8272\u8d8a\u9760\u8fd1\u7ea2\u8272\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u7ea6\u9ad8\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9ad8\u5bc6\u5ea6\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u548c\u56fe5C\u6240\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u672a\u676550\u5e74\u6c14\u6e29\u53d8\u5316\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff08\u989c\u8272\u8d8a\u9760\u8fd1\u7ea2\u8272\uff0c50\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u4eca\u5929\u76f8\u5dee\u8d8a\u5927\uff09\uff0c\u6709\u76f8\u5f53\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u91cd\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/section>\n
\u56fe6\uff1a\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u533a\u57df<\/span><\/strong><\/span>
<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\u6574\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5f88\u5927\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u4e25\u5cfb\u6311\u6218\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u533a\uff0c\u4f9d\u8d56\u5c0f\u519c\u573a\u63d0\u4f9b\u98df\u7269\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u90a3\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7fa4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7ed3\u5408\u4e0a\u6587\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5e26\u6765\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5173\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u3001\u751f\u6001\u591a\u6837\u6027\u635f\u5931\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u9274\u201d\u6c14\u5019\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u201c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u7528\u548c\u8be5\u6587\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u690d\u7269\u4f1a\u7531\u4e8e\u751f\u5b58\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u706d\u7edd\uff0c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4f20\u67d3\u75be\u75c5\u4f1a\u7531\u4e8e\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u800c\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u66f4\u5e7f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u51cf\u6392\u80fd\u7f13\u89e3\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5417\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u57282015\u5e7412\u670812\u65e5\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5e94\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e86\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u3002\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u63a7\u5236\u57282\u00b0C\u4ee5\u5185\u3002<\/span>
<\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7528RCP\u8868\u793a\u5728\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u73af\u5883\u72b6\u51b5\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55\u60c5\u666f\u3002RCP8.5\u5047\u8bbe\u52302100\u5e74\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u6bd4\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u524d\u9ad83-4\u500d\uff0cRCP4.5\u5047\u8bbe21\u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\u671f\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u4ecd\u7136\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0cRCP2.6\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u5b83\u5047\u8bbe\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u5728\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u523021\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u78b3\u65b0\u589e\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe7\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u51cf\u6392\u8ba1\u5212\u5bf9\u5e94\u53ca\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5927\u6d32\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373RCP2.6\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0a\u53471.5\u00b0C\uff0c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u53470.45\u7c73\uff0c\u800cPCP4.5\u60c5\u51b5\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad82\u00b0C\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u51cf\u6392\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5RCP8.5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u524d\u6587\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u8fd8\u4f1a\u4e0a\u53470.85\u7c73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ec5\u4ec5\u8003\u8651\u6c14\u6e29\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5b9c\u5c45\u5e26\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u51cf\u6392\u8def\u7ebf\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u4f7f\u751f\u6d3b\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u8303\u56f4\u5b9a\u572815\u4ebf-35\u4ebf\u3002\u7528\u8bba\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u8bdd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u6bcf\u51cf\u5c111\u00b0C\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u591f\u655110\u4ebf\u4eba\u3002<\/strong>\u201d\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u5236\u5b9a\u540e\u7684\u4e94\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7684\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u662f\u6309\u7167PCR8.5\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u7559\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u4f5c\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u6c14\u5019\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u4e34\u754c\uff0c\u5f02\u8d28\u53ca\u5916\u90e8\u6548\u5e94\u4e09\u5927\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u5728\u300aNature\u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u5c06\u9020\u6210\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u65ad\u5d16\u5f0f\u4e0b\u964d<\/a>\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u8bba\u8ff0\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3002\u800c\u672c\u6587\u7ed3\u5408\u6c14\u5019\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u7ed9\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u57df\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u800c\u57fa\u4e8e\u672c\u6587\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u4f55\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u7531\u4e8e\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u7684\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u5347\u9ad8\u53ca\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6210\u672c[1]\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u4e8e\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u5347\u9ad8\u9020\u6210\u7684\u667a\u529b\u4e0b\u964d[2]\u7b49\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\uff0c\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u683c\u5916\u7684\u8c28\u614e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u672c\u6587\u63cf\u8ff0\u768435\u4ebf\u4eba\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240\uff0c\u662f\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u90a3\u8bf4\u660e\u4f60\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5176\u5b9e\u4f4d\u4e8e\u7eb3\u897f\u59c6\u00b7\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u65af\u5766Extremistan\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u672a\u77e5\u662f\u5e38\u6001\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5076\u7136\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u662f\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u8981\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u6ca1\u6709\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u672c\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e25\u91cd\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5c31\u89c9\u5f97\u6c14\u5019\u95ee\u9898\u4e0e\u81ea\u5df1\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u662f\u4e00\u5ea7\u5b64\u5c9b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u6b21\u6b21\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e0d\u53d8\u771f\u7406\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

       <\/span>
<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
[1] Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab6b37<\/span><\/section>\n
[2] Indoor Air Quality in Green Vs Conventional Multifamily Low-Income Housing https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1021\/es501489u<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u90ed\u745e\u4e1c<\/p>\n

\u5ba1\u6821\uff1a\u5218\u534e\u6797\u3001\u66fe\u7965\u8f69<\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u5f20\u5e0c\u598d<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u6765\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u53d1\u8d77\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u89e3\u8bfb\u8bba\u6587\u6d3b\u52a8<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u4ee5\u4e0a\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u7bc7PNAS\u7814\u7a76\u8981\u70b9\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3002\u66f4\u591a\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u8bba\u6587\u539f\u6587\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5177\u5907\u76f8\u5173\u4e13\u4e1a\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u613f\u610f\u5e2e\u52a9\u5927\u5bb6\u6df1\u5ea6\u89e3\u8bfb\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8bf7\u626b\u7801\u62a5\u540d\u300c\u6211\u8981\u8bb2\u300d<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u534f\u52a9\u4f60\u5c55\u5f00\u4e00\u6b211\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u7ebf\u4e0a\u89e3\u8bfb\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u96c6\u667a\u5e73\u53f0\u516c\u5f00\u76f4\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5bf9\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u53c2\u4e0e\u7ebf\u4e0a\u89e3\u8bfb\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4e0e\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u4ea4\u6d41\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8bf7\u626b\u7801\u62a5\u540d\u300c\u6211\u8981\u542c\u300d<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4e3a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u79ef\u6512\u4eba\u6c14\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u626b\u7801\u767b\u5f55\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u62a5\u540d\u300c\u6211\u8981\u542c\u300d\u6216\u300c\u6211\u8981\u8bb2\u300d\u3002\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u662f\u7531\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u53d1\u8d77\u3001\u4ee5\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4e3a\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5b66\u4e60\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u627f\u8f7d\u4e86\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u89e3\u8bfb\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/span>
<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u829d\u52a0\u54e5-50\u2103\u6781\u5bd2\u3001\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u706b\u3001\u5317\u4eac\u65e0\u96ea\uff0c<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\u6c14\u5019\u5f02\u5e38\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6280\u672f\u5947\u70b9\u7684\u5148\u5146\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

2030\u5e74\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a\uff1fNature\u520a\u6587\u8b66\u544a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u662f\u771f\u7684\uff01<\/strong><\/span><\/a>
<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad81.5\u00b0C\u8fd8\u662f2\u00b0C\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u4e0d\u540c<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8QQ\u7fa4\uff5c877391004<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6 <\/span>\u25c6<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/section>\n

\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc47\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u66f4\u591a\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  \u5bfc\u8bed \u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u5c0f\u7ec4\u8fd1\u671f\u5728PNAS\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u201cFuture of the human climate niche\u201d\uff08\u4eba\u7c7b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\uff09\uff0c\u9884\u8a00\u5982\u679c\u6309\u7167\u5f53\u4eca\u7684\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u672a\u676550\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u4f1a\u670935\u4ebf\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u7531\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u62a5\u9053\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5bc6\u96c6\u5730\u767b\u4e0a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19605"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19605"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19605\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19605"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=19605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}