{"id":21901,"date":"2020-11-14T22:33:40","date_gmt":"2020-11-14T14:33:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=21901"},"modified":"2020-11-14T22:33:40","modified_gmt":"2020-11-14T14:33:40","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8e%e4%b8%bb%e4%bd%93%e7%9a%84%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b-%e9%9b%86%e6%99%ba%e7%99%be%e7%a7%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=21901","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u201c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u7cbe\u9009\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u4e13\u680f\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u63a8\u9001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7684\u5f00\u6e90\u79d1\u5b66\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u5e0c\u671b\u6253\u9020\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u6700\u5168\u9762\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3001\u70ed\u7231\u77e5\u8bc6\u6574\u7406\u548c\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u52a0\u5165\uff01<\/span>
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\u672c\u8bcd\u6761\u7531\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u4f17\u5305\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u96be\u514d\u5b58\u5728\u7eb0\u6f0f\u548c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5927\u5bb6\u7559\u8a00\u53cd\u9988\u6216\u8005\u524d\u5f80\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\u9875\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u4e00\u7ecf\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u79ef\u5206\u5956\u52b1\u5662\uff01<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08Agent-Based Model,ABM\u6216ABMs\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u7c7b\u8ba1\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u6a21\u62df\u81ea\u4e3b\u4e3b\u4f53\uff08\u4e2a\u4f53\u6216\u96c6\u4f53\u5b9e\u4f53\uff0c\u5982\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6216\u56e2\u4f53\uff09\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u4ea4\u4e92\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5b83\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u6d8c\u73b0\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u3001\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u8fdb\u5316\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u8981\u7d20\u3002\u91c7\u7528\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f15\u5165\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0cABMs\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08Individual-Based models\uff0cIBMS\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14IBMs\u5185\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4ABMs\u5185\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u81ea\u4e3b\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u8fd1\u5173\u4e8e\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\u8868\u660e\uff0cABMs\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u975e\u8ba1\u7b97\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u6216\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u4eff\u771f\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u4e4b\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3aABM\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5bfb\u627e\u5bf9\u9075\u5b88\u7b80\u5355\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u89c1\u89e3\uff0c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3b\u4f53\u6216\u89e3\u51b3\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6216\u5de5\u7a0b\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5fae\u89c2\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5b83\u6a21\u62df\u591a\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u64cd\u4f5c\u548c\u4ea4\u4e92\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u91cd\u65b0\u521b\u5efa\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u5176\u8868\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u6574\u4f53\u5927\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u548c\u201d\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u66f4\u9ad8\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c5e\u6027\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u8f83\u4f4e\u5c42\u6b21\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u7531\u5fae\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u3002\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7531\u4e3b\u4f53\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u89c4\u5219\uff09\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u65e0\u9650\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u88ab\u5047\u5b9a\u5176\u884c\u4e3a\u7b26\u5408\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u81ea\u8eab\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u5982\u518d\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5229\u76ca\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u6216\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u89c4\u5219\u3002ABM\u4e3b\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386\u201c\u5b66\u4e60\u201d\uff0c\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u590d\u5236\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u591a\u6570\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7531\u4ee5\u4e0b\u90e8\u5206\u7ec4\u6210\uff1a\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u89c4\u6a21\u6307\u5b9a\u7684\u4f17\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u79f0\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7c92\u5ea6\uff09\uff1b\u51b3\u7b56\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\uff1b\u5b66\u4e60\u89c4\u5219\u6216\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1b\u4ea4\u4e92\u62d3\u6251\u548c\u73af\u5883\u3002ABM\u901a\u5e38\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6a21\u62df\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u5236\u8f6f\u4ef6\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u901a\u8fc7ABM\u5de5\u5177\u5305\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u8be5\u8f6f\u4ef6\u6765\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5355\u4e2a\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u5728\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u601d\u60f3\u662f20\u4e16\u7eaa40\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u671f\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u76f4\u523090\u5e74\u4ee3\u624d\u5f97\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u65e9\u671f\u53d1\u5c55<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u5efa\u6a21\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u673a\uff0c\u5176\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u80fd\u591f\u81ea\u6211\u590d\u5236\u7684\u673a\u5668\u3002\u8be5\u673a\u5668\u5c06\u6309\u7167\u7cbe\u786e\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u6307\u793a\u5236\u4f5c\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u590d\u5236\u54c1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u65af\u5766\u5c3c\u65af\u62c9\u592b\u00b7\u4e4c\u62c9\u59c6\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u5bf9\u8be5\u6982\u5ff5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u4ed6\u5efa\u8bae\u5c06\u673a\u5668\u6784\u5efa\u5728\u4e8c\u7ef4\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f51\u683c\u7684\u683c\u5b50\u96c6\u5408\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u542f\u53d1\u4e86\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u8fd9\u4f4d\u521d\u59cb\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6539\u8fdb\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5143\u80de\u81ea\u52a8\u673a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u968f\u540e\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u4f55\u987f\u00b7\u5eb7\u5a01\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5eb7\u5a01\u7684\u751f\u547d\u6e38\u620f Conway\u2019s Game of Life \u3002\u4e0e\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u673a\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5eb7\u5a01\u7684\u751f\u547d\u6e38\u620f\u4ee5\u4e8c\u7ef4\u68cb\u76d8\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5728\u865a\u62df\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u6839\u636e\u6781\u5176\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u8fdb\u884c\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1970\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c1980\u5e74\u4ee3\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u6279\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u6700\u65e9\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u2022\u8c22\u6797\u7684\u5206\u79bb\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u4ed61971\u5e74\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u201c\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fc7\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8c22\u6797\u6700\u521d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u662f\u786c\u5e01\u548c\u56fe\u8868\u7eb8\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5373\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5728\u5171\u4eab\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u805a\u96c6\u7684\u3001\u7a81\u53d1\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u963f\u514b\u585e\u5c14\u7f57\u5fb7\u4e3b\u6301\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u56da\u5f92\u56f0\u5883\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u9526\u6807\u8d5b\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ee5\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u83b7\u80dc\u8005\u3002\u963f\u514b\u585e\u5c14\u7f57\u5fb7\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4ece\u79cd\u65cf\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4e49\u5230\u6587\u5316\u4f20\u64ad\u7b49\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u523020\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0c\u514b\u96f7\u683c\u00b7\u96f7\u8bfa\u5179\u5173\u4e8e\u690d\u7ed2\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5177\u6709\u793e\u4f1a\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u751f\u7269\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u4ed6\u8bd5\u56fe\u6a21\u62df\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u751f\u7269\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u719f\u77e5\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u751f\u547d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u662f\u7531\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u5170\u987f\u521b\u9020\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u201c\u4e3b\u4f53\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u76ee\u524d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5f88\u96be\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5230\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u970d\u5170\u5fb7\u548c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u7c73\u52d21991\u5e74\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u4e3b\u4f53\u300b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5019\u9009\uff0c\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u8f83\u65e9\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4ecb\u7ecd\u800c\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u8fd0\u7b79\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ee5\u53ca\u6765\u81ea\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u4eba\u5458\u7ec4\u6210\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0e\u6570\u5b66\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\uff08CMOT\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ba1\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08TIMS\uff09\u53ca\u5176\u59ca\u59b9\u534f\u4f1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd0\u7b79\u5b66\u5b66\u4f1a\uff08ORSA\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u6b8a\u5229\u76ca\u96c6\u56e2\u800c\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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1990\u5e74\u4ee3\uff1a\u6269\u5f20<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
\u968f\u77401990\u5e74StarLogo\u30011990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7684Swarm\u548cNetLogo\u4ee5\u53ca2000\u5e74RePast\u548cAnyLogic\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u6216\u80052007\u5e74GAMA\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b9a\u5236\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u4ee3\u7801\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5efa\u6a21\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5f00\u59cb\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528ABM\u7684\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u5728\u589e\u957f\u3002Bonabeau\uff082002\uff09\u5bf9\u5f53\u65f6\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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1990\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0cABM\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5c24\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u9879\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u7531Joshua M. Epstein\u548cRobert Axtell\u5171\u540c\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21ABM\uff1aSugarscape\uff0c \u7528\u4e8e\u6a21\u62df\u548c\u63a2\u7d22\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u8fc1\u5f99\u7b49\u7fa4\u4f53\u73b0\u8c61\u3001\u6c61\u67d3\u3001\u6027\u7e41\u6b96\u3001\u6218\u6597\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u751a\u81f3\u6587\u5316\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u663e\u8457\u53d1\u5c55\u5305\u62ec\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u00b7\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\uff08Carnegie Mellon University\uff09\u7684\u51ef\u745f\u7433\u00b7\u5361\u5229\uff08Kathleen Carley\uff09 ABM\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u63a2\u7d22\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5171\u540c\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u57281990\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5948\u6770\u5c14\u00b7\u5409\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279\uff08Nigel Gilbert\uff09\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\uff1a\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u6a21\u62df\uff1a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u300b\uff081999\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u671f\u520a\uff1a\u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u6a21\u62df\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\uff08JASSS\uff09\u3002\u9664\u4e86JASSS\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u56ca\u62ec\u5728SpringerOpen\u6742\u5fd7\uff1a\u590d\u6742\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u6a21\uff08CASM\uff09\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4ece\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\uff0cABM\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u5411\u5f00\u59cb\u5173\u6ce8\u4e8e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6709\u6548\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u3001\u7406\u89e3\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6709\u6548\u6027\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002CMOT\u2014\u2014\u540e\u6765\u66f4\u540d\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7cfb\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b97\u5206\u6790\uff08CASOS\uff09\u2014\u2014\u7eb3\u5165\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee2000\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u7efc\u8ff0\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86ABM\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u7d27\u63a5\u7740\u57282005\u5e74\u548c2006\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3Samuelson\u548cMacal\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0cTIMS\u548cORSA\u7684\u5408\u5e76\u6210\u4e86INFORMS,INFORMS\u4ece\u6bcf\u5e74\u4e24\u6b21\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fc3\u4f7fCMOT\u7ec4\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u534f\u4f1a\u2014\u2014\u5317\u7f8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u79d1\u5b66\u534f\u4f1a\uff08NAACSOS\uff09\u3002Hleen Carley\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u8005\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u5979\u4e3a\u5e74\u4f1a\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u7684\u8d44\u52a9\uff0c\u5e76\u62c5\u4efbNAACSOS\u7684\u9996\u4efb\u603b\u88c1\u3002\u63a5\u66ff\u5979\u7684\u662f\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u963f\u8d21\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7684\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u8428\u62c9\u514b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u662f\u57c3\u9ed8\u91cc\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u666e\u91cc\u56fe\u62c9\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u793e\u4f1a\u6a21\u62df\u534f\u4f1a\uff08ESSA\uff09\u548c\u4e9a\u592a\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u534f\u4f1a\uff08PAAA\uff09\u4e5f\u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u3002\u622a\u81f32013\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u5c55\u5f00\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c4a\u793e\u4f1a\u6a21\u62df\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u4f1a\u4e8e2006\u5e748\u6708\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u4eac\u90fd\u4e3e\u884c\u30022008\u5e747\u6708\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c4a\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u4f1a\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7279\u533a\u5317\u5f17\u5409\u5c3c\u4e9a\u90ca\u533a\u4e3e\u884c\uff0c\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u6885\u68ee\u5927\u5b66\u5728\u5f53\u5730\u5b89\u6392\u4e2d\u8d77\u4e86\u5e26\u5934\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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2000\u5e74\u4ee3\u53ca\u4ee5\u540e<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
\u6700\u8fd1\uff0cRon Sun\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u793e\u4f1a\u8ba4\u77e5\u6a21\u62df\u3002Bill McKelvey, Suzanne Lohmann, Dario Nardi, Dwight Read\u7b49\u4eba\u5728UCLA\u4e5f\u5bf9\u7ec4\u7ec7\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u30022001\u5e74\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\u5206\u6821\u5728\u52a0\u5dde\u7684\u963f\u7f57\u6c99\u5fb7\u6e56\u4e3e\u529e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u8fd9\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u805a\u4f1a\u70b9\u30022014\u5e74\uff0c\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7684Sadegh Asgari\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u7b51\u7ade\u6807\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u4f4e\u6807\u603b\u5305\u65bd\u5de5\u7684\u62db\u6807\uff0c\u53ef\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u62db\u6807\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4fee\u6539\u5f88\u5c0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u4e09\u3001\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u591a\u6570\u8ba1\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5904\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u6216\u5728\u5e73\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u95f4\u79fb\u52a8\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5404\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u800c\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u4e3b\u4f53\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u8c61\u3001\u6d8c\u73b0\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7531\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u4e3b\u4f53\u901a\u5e38\u5750\u843d\u5728\u79bb\u6563\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\u9a7b\u7559\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u6216\u683c\u72b6\u7684\u793e\u533a\u3002\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u548c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u884c\u4e3a\u4ee5\u7b97\u6cd5\u5f62\u5f0f\u7f16\u7801\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u548c\u6709\u76ee\u7684\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u9ad8\u9636\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u2014\u2014\u6050\u6016\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\uff0c\u4ea4\u901a\u5835\u585e\u3001\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u5d29\u6e83\u7b49\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c3d\u7ba1\u62e5\u6709\u5bbd\u5bb9\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9694\u79bb\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u6760\u6746\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u5e72\u9884\u4ea7\u751f\u6781\u7aef\u540e\u679c\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u5e76\u533a\u5206\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8bb8\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u4e0d\u5173\u6ce8\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8003\u8651\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5065\u58ee\u6027\u2014\u2014\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u9002\u5e94\u5185\u90e8\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u4ee5\u4fdd\u6301\u5176\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u9a7e\u9a6d\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u4e3b\u4f53\u672c\u8eab\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3001\u8fde\u63a5\u6027\u548c\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u7ea7\u522b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6846\u67b6<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u590d\u6742\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u4eff\u771f\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5c06\u57fa\u4e8eagent\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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  • \n
    \u4f7f\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ec4\u4ef6\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u6570\u636e\u5f00\u53d1\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u5efa\u6a21\u7ea7\u522b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    \u5efa\u7acb\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u5c42\u6b21\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u5f00\u53d1\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5927\u91cf\u5b66\u4e60\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e8e\u5f00\u53d1\u6982\u5ff5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u5982\u8d44\u52a9\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
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    \u57fa\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff08DREAM\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u6a21\u677f\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u5f00\u53d1\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u5efa\u7acb\u7406\u60f3\u6a21\u578b\u5141\u8bb8\u8de8\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    \u4f7f\u7528\u865a\u62df\u8986\u76d6\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08VOMAS\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f00\u53d1\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8ba4\u8bc1\u548c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
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    \u63cf\u8ff0\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u5305\u62ec\u4ee3\u7801\u6a21\u677f\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6587\u672c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982ODD\uff08\u6982\u8ff0\u3001\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7ec6\u8282\uff09\u534f\u8bae\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u5728\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u4eff\u771f\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u6240\u5904\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u548c\u5fae\u89c2\u73af\u5883\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u73af\u5883\u63d0\u4f9b\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u800c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4ea7\u751f\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n

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    <\/p>\n
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    \u56db\u3001\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    <\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \n
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    <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \u5728\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u5efa\u6a21\u5df2\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7528\u4e8e\u751f\u7269\u5b66,\u5305\u62ec\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u7ec6\u83cc\u6218\u7684\u5a01\u80c1,\u751f\u7269\u7528\u9014\u5305\u62ec\u79cd\u7fa4\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u968f\u673a\u57fa\u56e0\u8868\u8fbe\u3001\u690d\u88ab\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u3001\u666f\u89c2\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3001\u53e4\u4ee3\u6587\u660e\u7684\u5174\u8870\u3001\u6c11\u65cf\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u5f3a\u8feb\u4f4d\u79fb\/\u8fc1\u79fb\u3001\u8bed\u8a00\u9009\u62e9\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u8ba4\u77e5\u5efa\u6a21\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u751f\u7269\u533b\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u5305\u62ec\u4e09\u7ef4\u4e73\u817a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f62\u6001\u5f62\u6210\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u7535\u79bb\u8f90\u5c04\u5bf9\u4e73\u623f\u5e72\u7ec6\u80de\u4e9a\u7fa4\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u708e\u75c7\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u514d\u75ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u5f00\u53d1\u51b3\u7b56\u652f\u6301\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5982\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\u548c\u4e34\u5e8a\u524d\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4e3a\u836f\u7406\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u836f\u7269\u5f00\u53d1\uff0c\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u5bf9\u751f\u7269\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6d1e\u89c1\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u8fd1\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u5b50\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u751f\u7269\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u5728\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u89e3\u51b3\u5404\u79cd\u4e1a\u52a1\u548c\u6280\u672f\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u7ec4\u7ec7\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u8ba4\u77e5\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u56e2\u961f\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4f18\u5316\u548c\u7269\u6d41\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u5efa\u6a21\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u53e3\u7891\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u9879\u76ee\u7ec4\u5408\u7ba1\u7406\uff09\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u8fd8\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u5206\u6790\u4ea4\u901a\u62e5\u5835\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u4eff\u771f\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u7814\u7a76\u51fa\u7248\u5730\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff08\u671f\u520a\u4e0e\u4f1a\u8bae\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cABM\u5df2\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u6a21\u62df\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u9012\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    2016\u5e7411\u6708arXiv\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5e16\u5b50\u5728Facebook\u5728\u7ebf\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u5728\u5bf9\u7b49\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u5176\u5b83\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u4eff\u771f\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8bc1\u660e\u3002\u4e14\u6700\u8fd1\u6f14\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u5408\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u89c4\u8303\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u65e0\u7ebf\u4f20\u611f\u5668\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u4eff\u771f\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\u641c\u7d22\u7b97\u6cd5\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u6742\u4f18\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bfe\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u6743\u5a01\u6587\u7ae0: <\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n

    Agent-based computational economics <\/span><\/p>\n

    https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0020025502002803<\/span><\/p>\n

    Agent-based social simulation.<\/span><\/p>\n

    https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0308521X04000526<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u524d\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u5c06ABMs\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u6709\u6240\u589e\u957f\u3002ABMs\u5e76\u4e0d\u5047\u8bbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fbe\u5230\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u201c\u5178\u578b\u4e3b\u4f53\u201d\u88ab\u5177\u6709\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u7f8a\u7fa4\u884c\u4e3a\uff09\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u6240\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002ABMs\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u6781\u5176\u590d\u6742\u548c\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    ABMs\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5d29\u6e83\u548c\u7e41\u8363\u662f\u4ece\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5730\uff08\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\u54cd\u5e94\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c0f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53d1\u5c55\u800c\u6765\u7684\u3002\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u300b2010\u5e747\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5c06ABMs\u89c6\u4e3aDSGE\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u3002\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e5f\u9f13\u52b1\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u793e\u8bba\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0e\u6807\u51c6\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cABMs\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4ee3\u8868\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u5176\u5b83\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u591a\u6069\u2022\u6cd5\u9ed8\uff08J. Doyne Farmer\uff09\u548c\u9093\u80af\u2022\u5f17\u5229\uff08Duncan Foley\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0cABMs\u80fd\u591f\u6ee1\u8db3\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u63cf\u7ed8\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u613f\u671b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u2022\u5362\u5361\u65af\uff08Robert Lucas\uff09\u57fa\u4e8e\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\u6784\u5efa\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u613f\u671b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u6cd5\u9ed8\u548c\u5f17\u5229\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528ABMs\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3b\u5f20\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u4f4e\u5c42\u6b21\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4ee5\u6a21\u4eff\u3001\u53cd\u6a21\u4eff\u548c\u65e0\u5dee\u5f02\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u7279\u5f81\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9ad8\u7cbe\u5ea6\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u5f62\u6001\u4e0e\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u81ea21\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0cABMs\u5df2\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5efa\u7b51\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u89c4\u5212\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u6a21\u62df\u57ce\u5e02\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u884c\u4eba\u6d41\u91cf\u3002\u5229\u7528ABM\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7f51\u7edc\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4e5f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u7ec4\u7ec7ABM\uff1a\u4e3b\u4f53\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u6a21\u62df<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u4e3b\u4f53\u5bfc\u5411\u6a21\u62df\uff08Agent-Directed Simulation\uff09\u9690\u55bb\u533a\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u7c7b\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u4e3b\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e3b\u4f53\u201d\u3002\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u5de5\u7a0b\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u5e94\u7528\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b50\u7c7b\u3002Agent-supported\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ee5\u4e3b\u4f53\u4f5c\u4e3a\u652f\u6301\u5de5\u5177,\u4f7f\u7528\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u534f\u52a9\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u6216\u63d0\u9ad8\u8ba4\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e3b\u4f53\u751f\u6210\u6a21\u578b\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5206\u6790\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u6c7d\u8f66<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Waymo \u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u6a21\u62df\u73af\u5883 Carcraft \u6765\u6d4b\u8bd5\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u5b83\u6a21\u62df\u4eba\u7c7b\u9a7e\u9a76\u5458\u3001\u884c\u4eba\u548c\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u8f66\u8f86\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ea4\u901a\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u901a\u8fc7\u667a\u80fd\u4e3b\u4f53\u6765\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    <\/p>\n

    \u4e94\u3001\u5b9e\u73b0<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

    <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u8bb8\u591aABM\u6846\u67b6\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f0a\u66fc\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u67b6\u6784\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u53ef\u4f38\u7f29\u6027\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5927\u89c4\u6a21ABMs\u4e2d\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u884c\u4e3a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u79cd\u7fa4\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4f38\u7f29\u6027\u9650\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u963b\u788d\u6a21\u578b\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f7f\u7528Repast HPC\u7b49\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u6620\u5c04\u5230\u96c6\u7fa4\u548c\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4f53\u7cfb\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u901a\u4fe1\u548c\u540c\u6b65\u4ee5\u53ca\u90e8\u7f72\u590d\u6742\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u5e7f\u6cdb\u91c7\u7528\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u969c\u788d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u5728\u56fe\u5f62\u5904\u7406\u5355\u5143GPU\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u884c\u7b97\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884cABM\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u5185\u5b58\u5e26\u5bbd\u52a0\u4e0a\u591a\u5904\u7406\u5668GPU\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u5904\u7406\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ee5\u6bcf\u79d2\u6570\u5341\u5e27\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4e3b\u4f53\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    <\/p>\n

    \u516d\u3001\u9a8c\u8bc1\u548c\u786e\u8ba4<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

    <\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \u4eff\u771f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1\u548c\u786e\u8ba4\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u8bd5\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u5176\u6b63\u786e\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c\u786e\u8ba4\u5219\u786e\u4fdd\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u9762\u90e8\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3001\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6821\u51c6\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e5f\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u3002\u79bb\u6563\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4eff\u771f\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u5173\u4e8e\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u5168\u9762\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    Verification and validation\u6280\u672f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662fVOMAS (virtual overlay multi-agent system)\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5de5\u7a0b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5f00\u53d1\u865a\u62df\u8986\u76d6\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u751f\u6210\u65e5\u5fd7\u6765\u6536\u96c6\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u76d1\u89c6\u4e3b\u4f53\u63d0\u4f9b\u8fd0\u884c\u65f6\u9a8c\u8bc1\u548c\u786e\u8ba4\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4ee5\u68c0\u67e5\u8fd0\u884c\u65f6\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u53d8\u91cf\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u6a21\u62df\u4e13\u5bb6\u5728SME\uff08\u4e3b\u9898\u4e13\u5bb6\uff09\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e0b\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u3002Muazi\u7b49\u4eba\u8fd8\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f7f\u7528VOMAS\u9a8c\u8bc1\u548c\u786e\u8ba4\u68ee\u6797\u706b\u707e\u6a21\u62df\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    VOMAS\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u786e\u8ba4\u548c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f00\u53d1\u4e00\u4e2aVOMAS\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\u8bbe\u8ba1VOMAS\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u5f53\u4eff\u771f\u6a21\u578b\u5b8c\u6210\u65f6\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6a21\u578b:<\/span><\/section>\n