{"id":22069,"date":"2020-11-20T21:20:28","date_gmt":"2020-11-20T13:20:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=22069"},"modified":"2020-11-20T21:20:28","modified_gmt":"2020-11-20T13:20:28","slug":"%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8e%e4%b8%bb%e4%bd%93%e7%9a%84covid-19%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%ef%bc%9a%e5%a4%a7%e9%87%8f%e5%b0%8f%e8%a7%84%e6%a8%a1%e9%9b%86%e4%bc%9a%ef%bc%8c%e5%a5%bd%e8%bf%87%e5%b0%91%e9%87%8f%e5%a4%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=22069","title":{"rendered":"\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684COVID-19\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u5927\u91cf\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u96c6\u4f1a\uff0c\u597d\u8fc7\u5c11\u91cf\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u96c6\u4f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u771f\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5dee\u5f02\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u3001\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u53d8\u5f02\u7b49\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77R0<\/sub>\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u6216\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u8003\u8651\u5230\u590d\u6742\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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Christopher Wolfram \u8fd1\u65e5\u5728Complex Systems<\/em>\u671f\u520a\u5728\u7ebf\u53d1\u5e03\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684COVID-19\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u6a21\u578b<\/a>\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u573a\u666f\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u53c2\u6570\u4e0b\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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Christopher Wolfram\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u548cSteven Wolfram\uff08\u53f3\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u63a5\u89e6\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u5728B-A\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u901f\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u5feb\u3002W-S\u7f51\u7edc\u4f20\u64ad\u901f\u5ea6\u5904\u4e8e\u4e2d\u95f4\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u800c\u7531W-S\u56e2\u7c07\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u8d85\u56fe\u7ed3\u6784\u4f20\u64ad\u6700\u6162\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6539\u53d8<\/span>\u75ca\u6108\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.complex-systems.com\/abstracts\/v29_i01_a05\/<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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1.\u6784\u5efa\u57fa\u672c\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u4ee5\u56fe\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08agent\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6bcf\u6761\u8fde\u8fb9\u8fde\u63a5\u4e24\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e92\u52a8\u7684agent\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u88ab\u6807\u8bb0\u4e3a\u6613\u611f\u67d3\u3001\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u6216\u75ca\u6108\u4e09\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u4f1a\u5728\u8054\u7cfb\u4eba\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u5176\u90bb\u5c45\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u4e4b\u4f1a\u9762<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u4e92\u52a8\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f1a\u9762\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u7684\uff0c\u54ea\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u53d1\u8d77\u5e76\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u4f1a\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u540e\u6062\u590d\u3002\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6b65\u9aa4\u76f4\u5230\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe1-\u56fe3\uff1a\u4ee5Florentine\u5bb6\u65cf\u4e3a\u4f8b\u6784\u5efa\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u4e2d\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\uff08agent\uff09\u6807\u7ea2\u3002\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0c\u5c11\u91cf\u968f\u673a\u4e3b\u4f53\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u65b0\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u88ab\u6807\u8bb0\u4e3a\u84dd\u8272\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u8def\u5f84\u6807\u8bb0\u4e3a\u7d2b\u8272\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56fe4\uff1a\u4eceWatts-Strogatz\u56fe\u5206\u5e03\u91c7\u6837\u3001\u5177\u67091000\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u548c10%\u91cd\u8fde\u6982\u7387\u7684\u968f\u673a\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6b64\u65f6\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684SIR\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Susceptible\uff0cInfected\uff0cRecovered\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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2.\u611f\u67d3\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u76f8\u56fe\uff08Phase Plots\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u663e\u7136\u5728{0, 0}\u4f4d\u7f6e\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u5b50\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u53c2\u6570\u4e0b<\/span>\uff08infected–>0\uff0csusceptible–>0\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u540e\u6587\u5219\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u540c\u53c2\u6570\u4f1a\u5bf9\u76f8\u56fe\u6709\u600e\u6837\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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3.\u63a2\u7d22\u53c2\u6570\u7a7a\u95f4  <\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u968f\u7740\u4f1a\u9762\u6b21\u6570\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u66f2\u7ebf\u4f1a\u8d8a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u65e6\u8d8a\u8fc7\uff0c\u5c31\u6ce8\u5b9a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u7ed8\u5236\u5355\u6b21\u589e\u957f\u5cf0\u503c\u548c\u603b\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u4e0b\uff0c\u5f53\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4f1a\u9762\u6b21\u6570\u8d85\u8fc70.2\uff0c\u603b\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u4f1a\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u63a5\u8fd1100%\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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4.\u591a\u79cd\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5bf9\u6bd4<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

   <\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe11\uff1a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e0d\u540c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u4eff\u771f\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5bf9\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span>  <\/span><\/section>\n
<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56fe12\uff1a\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u5cf0\u503c\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u548c\u603b\u611f\u67d3\u7387\uff08\u53f3\uff09\u968f\u7740\u5e73\u5747\u4f1a\u9762\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u63a5\u8fd1\uff080.2\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u9ad8\u4e92\u52a8\u7387\uff08\u4f1a\u9762\u7387\uff09\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u60c5\u51b5\u5374\u5dee\u5f02\u5f88\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5176\u4e2dB-A\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u75be\u75c5\u6269\u6563\u901f\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8eW-S\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u7f51\u7edc\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/span>       <\/span>
<\/section>\n
<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe13\uff1a\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u5cf0\u503c\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u548c\u603b\u611f\u67d3\u7387\uff08\u53f3\uff09\u968f\u7740\u5e73\u5747\u4f1a\u9762\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u989c\u8272\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u4ee3\u8868\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5bc6\u5ea6W-S\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7a00\u758f\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\uff08\u4e0b\u65b9\u84dd\u7ebf\uff09\u75be\u75c5\u6269\u6563\u5f88\u6162\uff0c\u8f83\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u5219\u8fc5\u901f\u6269\u6563\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bf4\u660e\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u8fc7\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u89c1\u9762<\/span>\uff08\u4f20\u64ad\u75be\u75c5\uff09<\/span>\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5374\u672a\u88ab\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e5f\u662f\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4f5c\u8005\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u7531\u591a\u4e2a\u5c0f\u56e2\u7c07\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u8d85\u56fe\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56e2\u7c07\u5185\u90e8\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u57ce\u5e02\u57ce\u9547\u7b49\u5730\u7406\u5b9e\u4f53\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u56e2\u7c07\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u8868\u793a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u7406\u5b9e\u4f53\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u7684\u5e73\u9762\u56fe<\/span>\uff08planar graph\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8c03\u6574\u4e34\u8fd1\u56e2\u7c07\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fde\u8fb9\u6570\u91cf\u3001\u56e2\u7c07\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u8fde\u901a\u6027\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u793e\u56e2\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u51cf\u5c11\u793e\u56e2\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
       <\/span>       <\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe14\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u670910\u4e2a\u793e\u56e2\u7684\u8d85\u56fe\uff08supergraph\uff09\u793a\u610f\u56fe\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u793e\u56e2\u5305\u62ec100\u4e2a\u9876\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u67095\u6761\u8fde\u63a5\u7740\u76f8\u90bb\u793e\u56e2\u7684\u8fb9<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe15\uff1a\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u5cf0\u503c\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u548c\u603b\u611f\u67d3\u7387\uff08\u53f3\uff09\u968f\u7740\u5e73\u5747\u4f1a\u9762\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u56e2\u7c07\u95f4\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u6570\u4ece1\u523010\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u989c\u8272\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5c06\u6700\u521d\u611f\u67d3\u7684agent\u5f3a\u5236\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e2\u7c07\u4e2d\uff0c\u5411\u5176\u4ed6\u56e2\u7c07\u6269\u6563\u3002\u5f53\u56e2\u7c07\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u53d8\u5f31\u65f6\uff0c\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0d\u51fa\u6240\u6599\u5730\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u662f\u968f\u7740\u4f1a\u9762\u7387\u7f13\u6162\u589e\u957f\u7684\u3002\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u793e\u56e2\u5185\u90e8<\/span>\uff08\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u56e2\u7c07\uff09<\/span>\u8fc5\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5e73\u9762\u56fe\u4e0a\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u5feb\u9012\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u968f\u7740\u56e2\u7c07\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u7d27\u5bc6\uff0c\u66f2\u7ebf\u5f00\u59cb\u63a5\u8fd1\u5728\u5927\u7684\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u4f53\u90fd\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\uff09<\/span>\u4e0a\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u3002\u4f46\u5f53\u56e2\u7c07\u5904\u4e8e\u5f31\u8fde\u63a5\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u66f2\u7ebf\u5374\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u51cf\u5c11\u793e\u56e2\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u56e2\u7c07\u95f4\u8fde\u63a5\u6570\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6bd4\u51cf\u5c11\u793e\u56e2\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4e92\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u5e73\u5747\u4f1a\u9762\u7387\uff09<\/span>\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span> <\/span><\/section>\n
\n
\n
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\u4f5c\u8005<\/span>\uff1a\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5ba1\u6821\uff1a\u9648\u5173\u8363<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81eaNature<\/em>\u3001Science<\/em>\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0a\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605<\/strong>\u3002<\/span>
<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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