{"id":22202,"date":"2020-11-28T23:37:21","date_gmt":"2020-11-28T15:37:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=22202"},"modified":"2020-11-28T23:37:21","modified_gmt":"2020-11-28T15:37:21","slug":"nature%ef%bc%9a%e6%96%b0%e5%86%a0%e6%b5%81%e8%a1%8c%e9%9a%be%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%ef%bc%8c%e8%b6%85%e7%ba%a7%e8%ae%a1%e7%ae%97%e6%9c%ba%e5%92%8c%e6%b0%94%e8%b1%a1%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%e6%9d%a5%e5%b8%ae","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=22202","title":{"rendered":"Nature\uff1a\u65b0\u51a0\u6d41\u884c\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u548c\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u6765\u5e2e\u5fd9"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5728\u4e00\u7fa4\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8017\u65f6\u6570\u6708\u5ba1\u6838\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u578b CovidSim \u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u5e0c\u671b\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u6d41\u884c\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u66f4\u52a0\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4f7f\u7528\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4f26\u6566\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b CovidSim\u3002\u5728\u8bf4\u670d\u82f1\u7f8e\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u964d\u4f4e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u800c\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u5c01\u9501\u653f\u7b56\u4e2d\uff0cCovidSim \u6a21\u578b\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u63a8\u8fdb\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5176\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u5374\u4e5f\u4e00\u76f4\u53d7\u5230\u6000\u7591\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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2020\u5e743\u670831\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u67e5\u770bCovidSim\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56fe<\/span><\/p>\n

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CovidSim\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u6700\u591a\u5c06\u670950\u4e07\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u591a\u5c06\u6709220\u4e07\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5ea6\u6210\u4e3a\u82f1\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u53d7\u4f26\u6566\u7687\u5bb6\u5b66\u4f1a\u59d4\u6258\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4f7f\u7528\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\uff0c\u5bf9CovidSim\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u4e8e11\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u4e8e\u9884\u5370\u672c\u5e73\u53f0 Research Square \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Model uncertainty and decision making: Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 Using the CovidSim Epidemiological Code<\/span><\/p>\n

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https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-82122\/v3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u9886\u5bfc\u8be5\u8bfe\u9898\u7684\u4f26\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u5316\u5b66\u5bb6\u517c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6 Peter Coveney \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0cCovidSim \u5bf9\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u503c\u5fae\u5c0f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u654f\u611f\u7a0b\u5ea6\u88ab\u4eba\u4eec\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u5c01\u9501\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u901a\u8baf\u4f5c\u8005 Peter Coveney<\/span><\/p>\n

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Coveney \u4e0d\u613f\u6279\u8bc4\u7531\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6 Neil Ferguson \u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0cCoveney \u8d5e\u540c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e2\u961f\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6700\u597d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002Coveney \u8868\u793a\uff0cCovidSim \u7684\u786e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ec0\u4e48\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u505a\u786e\u5b9e\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u4f46\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e94\u8be5\u5bf9\u201c\u96c6\u6210\u201d\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08’ensemble’ models\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u6548\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u96c6\u6210\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>\uff08Ensemble Learning\uff09<\/span>\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u201c\u96c6\u6210\u201d\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5305\u542b\u7740\u6570\u5343\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7248\u672c\u7684\u5c0f\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u8fd0\u884c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7684\u573a\u666f\u3002\u4ece\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u5230\u5206\u5b50\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u91cf\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6982\u7387\u6df7\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Coveney \u7684\u56e2\u961f\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e3a CovidSim \u505a\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6574\u4f53\u201c\u96c6\u6210\u201d\uff0c\u8fd0\u884c\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u5176\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u662f\u539f\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u4e14\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Coveney \u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u867d\u7136 CovidSim \u88ab\u6367\u4e3a\u6700\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u771f\u6b63\u590d\u6742\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u73a9\u5177<\/strong>\u3002\u201d\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u5b66\u4f1a\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u5feb\u901f\u63f4\u52a9<\/span>\uff08Royal Society\u2019s Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic\uff0cRAMP\uff09<\/span>\u5021\u8bae\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5c31\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e Coveney \u6240\u505a\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u68c0\u67e5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Coveney \u56e2\u961f\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6ce2\u5179\u5357\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684 Eagle \u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u5bf9CovidSim \u8fdb\u884c\u4e866000\u6b21\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u8fd0\u884c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u6d4b\u8bd5\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u7ec4\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u6570\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u5305\u62ec\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u548c\u81f4\u547d\u6027\u3001\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u63a5\u89e6\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c45\u5bb6\u5de5\u4f5c\u7b49\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6267\u884c\u60c5\u51b5\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u4e09\u6708\u4efd\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u505a\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u6570\u4f9d\u7136\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u63a8\u6d4b\uff1a\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u6765\u81ea\u5173\u4e8e\u75c5\u6bd2\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5219\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u8fc7\u5f80\u6d41\u611f\u7b49\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u9884\u6d4b\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6570\u767e\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5c31\u4f1a\u5f15\u5165\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u53d1\u8d77\u5efa\u7acb RAMP \u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u5c31\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u9690\u5fe7\uff1a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u591a\u5230\u6709\u70b9\u5938\u5f20\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6050\u6015\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4ed6\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u4ece CovidSim \u4ee3\u7801\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86940\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u670919\u4e2a\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u7531\u4e09\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff1a\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u75c7\u72b6\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u957f\u5ea6\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u9694\u79bb\u7684\u6267\u884c\u60c5\u51b5\u4ee5\u53ca\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u7684\u9694\u79bb\u671f\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u5fae\u5c0f\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8f93\u51fa\u4ea7\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6570\u5343\u6b21\u6a21\u62df\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5c01\u9501\u653f\u7b56\u4e0b\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u9884\u6d4b\u2014\u2014\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9ad8\u51fa5-6\u500d\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u4e5f\u662f\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u9884\u6d4b\u4eba\u6570\u76842\u500d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u82f1\u56fd\u6bcf\u5468\u670960\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u4f4f\u9662\u63a5\u53d7\u91cd\u75c7\u76d1\u62a4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e09\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u9884\u6d4b\u82f1\u56fd\u5171\u8ba1\u5c06\u67098700\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002Coveney\u5c0f\u7ec4\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u5e73\u5747\u7ea6\u4e3a15,000\u4eba\uff1b\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8fc740,000\u4eba\u3002\u5f88\u96be\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u82f1\u56fd\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u5b57\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5c01\u9501\u653f\u7b56\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u665a\u4e86\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u90a3\u65f6\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u5728\u4f20\u64ad\u75be\u75c5\u4e86\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Coveney \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u505a\u9519\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u8fd0\u884c\u4e86\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u5305\u542b\u6982\u7387\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u9700\u8981\u505a\u53e6\u4e00\u756a\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002Coveney \u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u5c06\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6574\u4f53\u201c\u96c6\u6210\u201d\u8fd0\u884c\u5176\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7528\u6765\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u6539\u53d8\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u7231\u4e01\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6 Rowland Kao \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u5f53\u6bd4\u8f83\u3001\u7efc\u5408\u591a\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u5c31\u592a\u8349\u7387\u4e86\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5f15\u5165\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5de5\u5177<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u8005 Ferguson \u8ba4\u540c\u4e86 Coveney \u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u610f\u89c1\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u4e09\u6708\u4efd\u6211\u4eec\u5c1a\u65e0\u80fd\u529b\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u201dFerguson \u540c\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u56e2\u961f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u7ecf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u5305\u542b\u6982\u7387\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u7ed3\u679c\u4e86\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6982\u7387\u6765\u8868\u793a CovidSim \u8f93\u5165\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u53e3\u8e44\u75ab\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u5efa\u8bae\u82f1\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u672c\u6708\u5e94\u91cd\u65b0\u6267\u884c\u5c01\u9501\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4CovidSim\u66f4\u7075\u6d3b\uff1a\u201c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8003\u91cf\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e00\u5468\u591a\u6b21\u8fd0\u884c\u6a21\u62df\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u5b9e\u65f6\u62df\u5408\u6570\u636e\u8981\u5bb9\u6613\u591a\u4e86\u3002<\/strong>\u201dFerguson \u8868\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Coveney \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u6837\u542c\u4e0a\u53bb\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u5728\u505a\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u4e00\u81f4\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ferguson \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u5e38\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5bf9\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u6743\u8861\u3002\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u4e00\u677f\u4e00\u773c\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba1\u7b97\u96be\u5ea6\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u82f1\u56fd\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6 Tim Palmer \u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5de5\u5177\u662f\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002Tim \u7387\u5148\u5728\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u96c6\u6210\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e0a\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u96c6\u6210\u5efa\u6a21\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u624d\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u6700\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a<\/span>\uff08Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\uff0cIPCC\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Palmer \u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u7c7b\u4f3cIPCC\u7684\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u67d0\u4e9b\u56fd\u9645\u95f4\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e2d\u5f00\u53d1\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u60c5\u51b5\u7d27\u6025\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u63a8\u8fdb\u5c06\u4f1a\u5f88\u4ed3\u4fc3\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u67d0\u79cd\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6765\u7efc\u5408\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

Simulating the pandemic: What COVID forecasters can learn from climate model<\/span><\/section>\n
\u7ffb\u8bd1\u81ea\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-03208-<\/span>1<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81eaNature\u3001Science<\/em>\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u751f\u547d\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/a>
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Luis Bettencourt\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u9075\u5faa\u666e\u904d\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219<\/strong><\/span><\/a>
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Science Advances\u524d\u6cbf\uff1a\u521b\u65b0\u578b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u662f120\u4e07<\/strong><\/span><\/a>
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\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u66f4\u5b9c\u5c45\uff1f\u5c42\u7ea7\u6027\u6bd4\u57ce\u5e02\u5927\u5c0f\u91cd\u8981<\/strong><\/span><\/a>
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\u57ce\u5e02\u4e3a\u4f55\u9075\u5faa\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\uff1f\u5206\u5f62\u51e0\u4f55\u63ed\u5f00\u5e42\u5f8b\u6210\u56e0<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/section>\n
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\u5546\u52a1\u5408\u4f5c\u53ca\u6295\u7a3f\u8f6c\u8f7d\uff5cswarma@swarma.org
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\u641c\u7d22\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u52a0\u5165\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8ba9\u82f9\u679c\u7838\u5f97\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u4e9b\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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