{"id":23691,"date":"2021-02-05T20:04:53","date_gmt":"2021-02-05T12:04:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=23691"},"modified":"2021-02-05T20:04:53","modified_gmt":"2021-02-05T12:04:53","slug":"%e5%91%a8%e6%99%93%e5%8d%8e%ef%bc%9a%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%8e%a8%e6%96%ad%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b0%e5%ad%a6%e5%9f%ba%e7%a1%80%e5%92%8c%e5%9c%a8%e5%8c%bb%e5%ad%a6%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e5%ba%94%e7%94%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=23691","title":{"rendered":"\u5468\u6653\u534e\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u548c\u5728\u533b\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n

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\u9093\u5b87\u660a | \u6574\u7406
\u9093\u4e00\u96ea | \u7f16\u8f91<\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n

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<\/div>\n

3.\u975e\u6807\u51c6\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e4b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad[2,3]


\u548c\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7834\u574f\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5728\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u53d1\u751f\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u3002\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u4e0e\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u524d\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u6709\u5b9a\u4e49\u3001\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u672a\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7f62\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7528Zi\u8868\u793a\u7b2ci\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u7684\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u6848\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f9d\u4ece\u4e8e\u5206\u914d\u65b9\u6848\uff09\uff0cSi(Zi)\u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53i\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5b58\u6d3b\u72b6\u6001\uff081\u8868\u793a\u5b58\u6d3b\uff0c0\u8868\u793a\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff09\uff0cYi(Zi)\u8868\u793a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u5982\u679cSi(Zi)=1\uff09\uff0c\u7528Xi\u8868\u793a\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u4ecd\u7136\u5229\u7528\u4e3b\u5c42\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u628a\u4eba\u7fa4\u5206\u4e3a\u56db\u5c42\uff0c\u7528G\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u6c38\u8fdc\u5b58\u6d3b\u7ec4LL\uff08Si(z)=1\uff09\u3001\u6c38\u8fdc\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7ec4DD\uff08Si(z)=1\uff09\u3001\u6709\u76ca\u7ec4LD\uff08Si(z)=z\uff09\u3001\u6709\u5bb3\u7ec4DL\uff08Si(z)=1-z\uff09\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u6c38\u8fdc\u5b58\u6d3b\u7684LL\u7ec4\uff0c\u5176\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u65e0\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u5fc3\u6c38\u8fdc\u5b58\u6d3b\u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528SACE=E[Yi(1)-Yi(0)|G=LL]\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc6\u522b\u5b58\u6d3b\u7ec4\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u505a\u51fa\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u5173\u4e8eS\u548cY\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u66ff\u4ee3\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u4eba\u7fa4\u5206\u5c42\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u4f7f\u7528\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u5b58\u6d3b\u7ec4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u6709\u5bb3\u7ec4DL\u7ec4\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8981\u653e\u5bbd\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u53ef\u5c06\u5176\u66ff\u6362\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5141\u8bb8DL\u7ec4\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u4e8b\u5148\u7ed9\u5b9aSi(1)\u3001Si(0)\u548cLL\u7ec4\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7528\u4e8e\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e09\u4e2a\u7ec4\u522b\u4e14\u5b58\u5728\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u7684\u591a\u5904\u7406\u968f\u673a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u8fd8\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u603b\u4f53\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5927\u6837\u672c\u4e0b\u7684\u6536\u655b\u6027\uff0c\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u5927\u6837\u672c\u4e0b\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u548c\u8fde\u7eed\u578b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u548c\u534a\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570SACE\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86SACE\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u6b63\u5219\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u63d0\u51fa\u5f53\u8fdd\u80cc\u90e8\u5206\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

4.\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5206\u6790[4]


\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e2d\u4ecb\u3002\u7528T\u8868\u793a\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0cM\u8868\u793a\u4e2d\u4ecb\uff0cY\u8868\u793a\u7ed3\u5c40\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u4eceT\u5230Y\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u6761\u8def\u5f84\uff1a\u4e00\u6761\u662f\u4eceT\u76f4\u63a5\u5230Y\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u76f4\u63a5\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u662f\u4eceT\u7ecf\u8fc7M\u518d\u5230Y\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u95f4\u63a5\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u5173\u4e8e\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u9157\u9152\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u5230\u4e09\u79cd\u65b9\u6848T\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u653e\u677e\uff08\u5bf9\u7167\uff09\u3001\u9152\u7cbe\u626b\u63cf+\u5e72\u9884\u3001\u9152\u7cbe\u626b\u63cf+\u5e72\u9884+\u60c5\u7eea\u63a7\u5236\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4e2d\u4ecbM\u662f\u60c5\u7eea\u63a7\u5236\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u7ed3\u5c40Y\u662f3\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u7684\u6291\u90c1\u5f97\u5206\u3002\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u884c\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u4e2d\u4ecb\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u6df7\u6742\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u653e\u5bbd\u4e86\u5e8f\u5217\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u5141\u8bb8\u4e2d\u4ecb\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u6df7\u6742\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5141\u8bb8\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

5.\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u6cbb\u7597[5,6]


\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u6cbb\u7597\uff08\u6216\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597\uff09\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6709\u7740\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597\u65e8\u5728\u6839\u636e\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u6cbb\u7597\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u4f4d\u60a3\u8005\u4e00\u6b21\u53ea\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u79cd\u6cbb\u7597\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u60a3\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0d\u540c\u6cbb\u7597\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u8bf4\uff0c\u8bbeX\u8868\u793a\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0cZ\u4e3a\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d6Z=0\u62161\uff0c\u7528Y(z)\u8868\u793a\u60a3\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7597z\u540e\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597\u5374\u9700\u8981\u6839\u636e\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528E[Y(1)-Y(0)|X]\u9009\u62e9\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6570\u503c\u8d8a\u5927\u8868\u793a\u60a3\u8005\u6536\u76ca\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5982\u679c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5927\u4e8e0\uff0c\u5c31\u9009\u62e9Z=1\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u9009\u62e9Z=0\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u628a\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ed9\u5b9a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5355\u6307\u6807\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e2d\u836f\u548c\u897f\u836f\u7684\u7597\u6548\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u5f53\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u8303\u56f4\u5185(c1<X<c2)\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u836f\u6cbb\u7597\u6bd4\u897f\u836f\u6cbb\u7597\u66f4\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u897f\u836f\u6cbb\u7597\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u753b\u51fa\u4e00\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e2d\u836f\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u897f\u836f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u968f\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u5373\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u8fd9\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u5728\u4e34\u5e8a\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u4fbf\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6700\u4f18\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u6cbb\u7597\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u4f7f\u7528\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u8c03\u6574\u6548\u5e94\u66f2\u7ebf\uff08BATE\uff09\u3001\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u66f2\u7ebf\uff08CSTE\uff09\u6765\u8868\u793a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u75c5\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u6700\u4f18\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e25\u683c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u65b0\u63d0\u51fa\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u6cbb\u7597\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u63d0\u51fa\u91c7\u7528B\u6837\u6761\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1CSTE \u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u91c7\u7528Hotelling tube\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1CSTE\u66f2\u7ebf\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5e26\u7684\u65b0\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5b9a\u4e49\u5e76\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e8c\u503c\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u7684CSTE\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ef\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5229\u7528B\u6837\u6761\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u5e7f\u4e49\u53d8\u7cfb\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5927\u6837\u672c\u6570\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e
[1] Keisuke, H. , Imbens, G. W. , Rubin, D. B. , & Xiao-Hua, Z. . (2000). Assessing the effect of an influenza vaccine in an encouragement design. Biostatistics.
[2] Wang, L. , Zhou, X. H. , & Richardson, T. S. . (2016). Identification and estimation of causal effects with outcomes truncated by death. Biometrika.
[3] Wang, L. , Richardson, T. S. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2017). Causal analysis of ordinal treatments and binary outcomes under truncation by death. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).
[4] Zheng, C. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2015). Causal mediation analysis in the multilevel intervention and multicomponent mediator case. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 77. [5] Zhou, X. H. , & Ma, Y. B. . (2012). Bate curve in assessment of clinical utility of predictive biomarkers. Science China Mathematics.
[6] Ma, Y. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2017). Treatment selection in a randomized clinical trial via covariate-specific treatment effect curves. Statistical Methods in Medical Research.<\/p>\n

\u5f55\u64ad\u5730\u5740<\/p>\n

https:\/\/campus.swarma.org\/course\/2324<\/p>\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/p>\n

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