{"id":23733,"date":"2021-02-09T21:49:04","date_gmt":"2021-02-09T13:49:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=23733"},"modified":"2021-02-09T21:49:04","modified_gmt":"2021-02-09T13:49:04","slug":"pre%ef%bc%9a%e6%ad%a6%e8%a3%85%e5%86%b2%e7%aa%81%e7%9a%84%e5%b9%82%e5%be%8b%e6%b3%95%e5%88%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=23733","title":{"rendered":"PRE\uff1a\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\u6cd5\u5219"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n

\u5bfc\u8bed<\/p>\n

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\u90ed\u745e\u4e1c | \u4f5c\u8005
\u8d75\u96e8\u4ead | \u5ba1\u6821<\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea | \u7f16\u8f91<\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee
Scaling theory of armed-conflict avalanches
\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740
https:\/\/journals.aps.org\/pre\/abstract\/10.1103\/PhysRevE.102.042312<\/p>\n

1941\u5e74\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6 Lewis Fry Richardson \u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7b26\u5408\u5e42\u5f8b\u6cd5\u5219\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u8f83\u5c0f\u51b2\u7a81\u662f\u8f83\u5927\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u7f29\u5c0f\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u4f46\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u5728\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e42\u7387\u6cd5\u5219\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u7ed9\u51fa\u53ef\u4fe1\u670d\u7684\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u96c6\u4f53\u8ba1\u7b97\u5c0f\u7ec4\u7684 Christopher Meyers \u4f7f\u7528\u6765\u81ea\u975e\u6d32\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u51b2\u7a81\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u7406\u533a\u57df\u8513\u5ef6\u7684\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u66b4\u529b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5982\u4f55\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e86\u66b4\u529b\u51b2\u7a81\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0a\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6210\u957f\u548c\u6269\u6563\u3002<\/p>\n


\u56fe1. \u8be5\u6587\u4e2d\u7528\u5230\u7684\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u975e\u6d32\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u53ca\u65f6\u95f4\u6c47\u603b\u56fe\uff0c\u5305\u62ec100,000\u4e2a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u6570\u5343\u516c\u91cc\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/p>\n

\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u547d\u540d\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u5206\u53c9\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\uff08 randomly branching armed conflict\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5728\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u751f\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u540e\uff0c\u4f1a\u968f\u673a\u5730\u5e26\u52a8\u76f8\u90bb\u7684\u533a\u57df\u53d1\u751f\u70c8\u5ea6\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u6f14\u5316\u6548\u679c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5177\u6709\u5206\u5f62\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6811\u6748\u3002<\/p>\n


\u56fe2. RBAC\u6a21\u578b\u793a\u610f\u56fe\uff0c\u56fe\u4e2d\u7ebf\u6761\u8d8a\u7c97\uff0c\u603b\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u6b21\u6570\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6700\u521d\u53d1\u751f\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6700\u7c97<\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u4e00\u6761\u51b2\u7a81\u5206\u652f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4efb\u610f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7279\u5b9a\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u6587\u5316\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6c47\u603b\u5206\u6790\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u5171\u540c\u5c5e\u6027\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u51b2\u7a81\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c55\u793a\u66b4\u529b\u51b2\u7a81\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff08\u8ddd\u79bb\uff09\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u62a5\u544a\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u66b4\u529b\u5728\u5730\u7406\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5c42\u9762\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4ea4\u7ec7\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u56fe3. \u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u521d\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8fbe\u5230\u4e34\u754c\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u9075\u5faa\u5e42\u5f8b\u6cd5\u5219<\/p>\n

\u672c\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u4f1a\u805a\u96c6\u4e00\u4e9b\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u8fde\u4e32\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u7ea7\u8054\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u51b2\u7a81\u7206\u53d1\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u4e9b\u51b2\u7a81\u5f88\u5feb\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5219\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u8be5\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fd8\u89e3\u91ca\u5730\u533a\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u67d0\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u66f4\u52a0\u9891\u7e41\u548c\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u51b2\u7a81\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5dee\u5f02\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u80fd\u9075\u5faa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u5ea6\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u8ba9\u5bf9\u5e42\u5f8b\u6cd5\u5219\u719f\u6089\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\uff0c\u60f3\u5230\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u72af\u7f6a\u5982\u4f55\u4e0e\u57ce\u5e02\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u2014\u2014\u901a\u8fc7\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u540c\u5e42\u5f8b\u6cd5\u5219\u7684\u5f02\u540c\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u56de\u7b54\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u5982\u4f55\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u6a21\u5f0f\u76f8\u8054\u7cfb\uff1f\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.santafe.edu\/news-center\/news\/avalanche-violence-new-analysis-reveals-predictable-patterns-armed-conflicts<\/p>\n

\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587


\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81eaNature\u3001Science\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605\uff1a<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/p>\n

Science Advances\u524d\u6cbf\uff1a\u7761\u7720\u548c\u4f53\u578b\u5927\u5c0f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\u6cd5\u5219<\/a>
\u57ce\u5e02\u4e3a\u4f55\u9075\u5faa\u89c4\u6a21\u6cd5\u5219\uff1f\u5206\u5f62\u51e0\u4f55\u63ed\u5f00\u5e42\u5f8b\u6210\u56e0<\/a>
\u89e3\u8bfb\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\u4e0e\u65e0\u6807\u5ea6\u7f51\u7edc | \u957f\u6587\u7efc\u8ff0<\/a><\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/a><\/p>\n

\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587 <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bed \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5728\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d8a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff1f\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u6839\u636e\u8fd1\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u975e\u6d32\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5bf9\u6b64\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u90ed\u745e\u4e1c | \u4f5c\u8005\u8d75\u96e8\u4ead | \u5ba1\u6821 \u9093\u4e00\u96ea | \u7f16\u8f91 \u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76eeScaling theory of armed-conflict avalan…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23733"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23733\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23733"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=23733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}