{"id":23783,"date":"2021-02-15T17:14:01","date_gmt":"2021-02-15T09:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=23783"},"modified":"2021-02-15T17:14:01","modified_gmt":"2021-02-15T09:14:01","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%89%8d%e7%ae%97%e5%a5%bd%e7%9a%84%e8%a7%a3%e9%87%8a%ef%bc%9f%e8%b4%9d%e5%8f%b6%e6%96%af%e6%a1%86%e6%9e%b6%e4%b8%8b%e7%bb%99%e5%87%ba%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%9b%e4%b8%aa%e8%af%84%e4%bb%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=23783","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u624d\u7b97\u597d\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff1f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6807\u51c6"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n

\u5bfc\u8bed<\/p>\n

\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u5177\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\uff1f\u6765\u81ea\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5916\u8058\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u5361\u8010\u57fa\u00b7\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u6559\u6388 DeDeo \u548c Zachary Wojtowicz \u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u300a\u8ba4\u77e5\u79d1\u5b66\u8d8b\u52bf\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u63a5\u53d7\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u800c\u8a00\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u6216\u9053\u5fb7\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6240\u5e94\u5f53\u5177\u6709\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ecf\u7531\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u89e3\u91ca\u63a8\u52a8\u8bf8\u5982\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u3001\u5984\u60f3\u3001\u4e43\u81f3\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7b49\u73b0\u8c61\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002
\u90ed\u745e\u4e1c | \u4f5c\u8005
\u8d75\u96e8\u4ead | \u5ba1\u6821<\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea | \u7f16\u8f91<\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/p>\n

From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning
\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a
https:\/\/secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com\/action\/cookieAbsent?code=null<\/p>\n


1. \u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6<\/p>\n



\u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u8005 Simon DeDeo \u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u7c7b\u5982\u4f55\u4f7f\u7528\u8bed\u8a00\u53ca\u89c2\u5ff5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u6765\u6784\u5efa\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u73b0\u6709\u6700\u6fc0\u70c8\u548c\u6700\u5177\u4e89\u8bae\u6027\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u5728\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e0a\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u4f46\u5bf9\u89e3\u91ca\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u201d\u5bf9\u600e\u4e48\u624d\u7b97\u662f\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u2014\u2014\u5171\u8bc6\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u800c\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u5728\u8ba4\u77e5\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u5177\u6709\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u6216\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u54ea\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8ba4\u77e5\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff1a(i)\u8bc1\u636e\u4f7f\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca(ii)\u89c2\u6d4b\u524d\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5728\u770b\u5230\u8bc1\u636e\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\u8be5\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n


\u56fe1. \u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a\u67d0\u4e00\u89e3\u91ca\u53ef\u5426\u5408\u7406\u5730\u4f7f\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5f85\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\uff08\u5373\u53ef\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\uff09\uff1b\u67d0\u4e00\u89e3\u91ca\u80fd\u5426\u5c06\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6574\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff08\u901a\u7528\u6027\uff09\uff1b\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u67d0\u4e00\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u5426\u7ecf\u5e38\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\uff08\u573a\u666f\u65e0\u5173\uff09\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e00\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u591f\u7b80\u5355\uff08\u7b80\u6d01\uff09<\/p>\n

\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u662f\u5b9e\u7528\u6307\u6807\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u5dee\u8ddd\u8fc7\u5927\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6070\u597d\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5de7\u5408\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bb6\u957f\u8d28\u95ee\u5b69\u5b50\u4e3a\u4f55\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9\u4e0d\u53ca\u683c\uff0c\u5b69\u5b50\u6216\u8bb8\u56de\u7b54\u5835\u8f66\u8fdf\u5230\uff0c\u6291\u6216\u662f\u53ea\u7b54\u5b8c\u4e00\u534a\u8bd5\u5377\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f7b\u800c\u6613\u4e3e\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u53ea\u8ba1\u7b97\u7b54\u9898\u7684\u534a\u5f20\u5377\u5b50\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u8d77\u6765\u4e5f\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u53ca\u683c\u2014\u2014\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5b69\u5b50\u89e3\u91ca\u5c31\u662f\u53ef\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u800c\u82e5\u5b69\u5b50\u56de\u7b54\u7531\u4e8e\u5929\u70ed\u5934\u75db\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u540c\u671f\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u95e8\u8003\u8bd5\u5219\u6210\u7ee9\u4f18\u5f02\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5929\u6c14\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u7f3a\u5c11\u901a\u7528\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n


2. \u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u7b80\u6d01\u6027<\/p>\n



\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\u7684\u540e\u4e24\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u65e0\u5173\u2014\u2014\u5176\u4ee3\u8868\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e0b\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u77e5\u8bc6\u9700\u8981\u62e5\u6709\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u9886\u57df\u5185\u7cbe\u786e\u6821\u51c6\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\u4fee\u7406\u5de5\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u501f\u9274\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6c7d\u8f66\u4e0a\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u53d1\u52a8\u673a\u6545\u969c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5bf9\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u8bca\u65ad\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u8be5\u6027\u522b\u53ca\u5e74\u9f84\u6bb5\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u7f79\u60a3\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5148\u9a8c\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b80\u5355\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u80fd\u7f16\u5199\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6700\u77ed\u7a0b\u5e8f\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u201d\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5219\u66f4\u559c\u6b22 Wojtowicz \u548c DeDeo \u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u8054\u5408\u89e3\u91ca\u201d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b54\u6848\u89e3\u51b3\u591a\u4e2a\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5728\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bfb\u627e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u539f\u7406\u6216\u673a\u5236\u3002\u800c\u6839\u636e Akaike Information Criterion \u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\uff08\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\uff09\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5728\u52a0\u5165\u8be5\u53c2\u6570\u4e4b\u540e\u2014\u2014\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u65e7\u89e3\u91ca\u2014\u2014\u65b0\u89e3\u91ca\u8ba9\u5f85\u89e3\u91ca\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u63d0\u53472.7\u500d\uff0c\u8be5\u53c2\u6570\u624d\u53ef\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n


\u56fe2. \u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0d\u540c\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u7b80\u6d01\u6027<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u9634\u5f71\u8282\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u5176\u4ed6\u8282\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u5047\u5b9a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u800c\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8bc4\u4f30\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u6240\u8c03\u7528\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u8bc4\u4f30\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7edf\u4e00\u6027\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5305\u7f57\u4e07\u8c61\u7406\u8bba\u6c47\u603b\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u591a\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u53ef\u4ee5\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u6cbf\u7740\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8be5\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u7ec4\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6700\u8ff7\u4eba\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u89e3\u91ca\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u590d\u6742\u89e3\u91ca\u76f8\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u6311\u6218\u5728\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff1a\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c06\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3a\u6b64\u800c\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u201c\u4e07\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n


3. \u4ece\u591a\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5bf9\u540c\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u591a\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca<\/p>\n


\u56fe3. \u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u533a\u5206\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u8303\u5f0f-\u75be\u75c5\u8bca\u65ad<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u56fe\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u9879\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff08\u7ea2\u8272\u3001\u84dd\u8272\u548c\u9ec4\u8272\u8868\u793a\u9634\u5f71\uff0c\u6bcf\u79cd\u989c\u8272\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u8868\u793a\u6982\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u75c7\u72b6\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u84dd\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5728\u53ef\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u4e0a\uff08\u5b83\u5141\u8bb8\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff09\u4e0e\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u5dee\u3002\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\uff08\u66f4\u7a84\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff09\u4e0e\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff08\u75c5\u4eba\u4f53\u6e29\u9ad8\u901a\u5e38\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u4f4e\u8840\u6c27\uff09\u3002\u9ec4\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0e\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5b83\u540c\u6837\u6709\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u53c8\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u6240\u6709\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4f53\u6e29\u548c\u8840\u6c27\u95f4\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9762\u5bf9\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u60a3\u8005\uff08a\u3001b \u548c c\uff09 \uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89e3\u91ca\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u2014\u2014\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6bd4\u9ec4\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u4f4e\uff08\u60a3\u8005 a \u6709\u70b9\u8d85\u51fa\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u8303\u56f4\uff09 \uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u6bd4\u84dd\u8272\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u4e09\u4e2a\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u4f53\u6e29\u9884\u6d4b\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8840\u6c27\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u60a3\u8005 a \u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u9ec4\u8272\u4e5f\u6bd4\u7ea2\u8272\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\uff1b\u5728\u9ec4\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0b\uff0c\u60a3\u8005a\u7684\u8840\u6c27\u6c34\u5e73\u5904\u4e8e\u7ea2\u8272\u89e3\u91ca\u5141\u8bb8\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5916\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u66f4\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4f53\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n

\u54ea\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u76f8\u8f83\u6700\u597d\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u9ec4\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u5f97\u5206\u548c\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u7136\u4f1a\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u7ea2\u8272\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u84dd\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9ec4\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6d89\u53ca\u8840\u6c27\u548c\u4f53\u6e29\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5173\u7cfb\u2014\u2014\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u8d77\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u75be\u75c5\u3001\u6216\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u6f5c\u5728\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u75c5\u4f8b\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u800c\u4e0d\u591f\u7b80\u6d01\u3002<\/p>\n

\u89e3\u91ca\u8bc4\u4f30\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u7a33\u5b9a\uff09\u80cc\u666f\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\uff1a\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5373\u4e3a\u8840\u6c27\u548c\u4f53\u6e29\u3002\u5982\u679c\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u503c\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u533b\u751f\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u79f0\u4e3a\u4f53\u6e29\u51cf\u53bb\u201c\u8840\u6c27\u201d \uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u4f4e\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u7684\u603b\u548c\u4fdd\u6301\u5e38\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n


4. \u597d\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5177\u6709\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/p>\n



\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u8ba4\u77e5\u5c06\u4f1a\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u5f15\u8d77\u9ebb\u70e6\u2014\u2014\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u7684\u76db\u884c\uff0c\u8bf4\u660ey\u4e00\u65e6\u5bf9\u672c\u6587\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u201d\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u501a\u91cd\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u8bef\u3002\u4ee5\u4fc4\u514b\u62c9\u8377\u9a6c\u57ce\u7206\u70b8\u6848\u5236\u9020\u8005 Timothy McVeigh \u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u7206\u70b8\u53d1\u751f\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\u88ab\u6355\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u65e0\u7167\u9a7e\u9a76\uff0c\u4e14\u4e58\u5ba2\u5ea7\u4f4d\u4e0a\u6709\u4e00\u628a\u4e0a\u4e86\u819b\u7684\u67aa\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5f88\u96be\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u4e2a\u72af\u7f6a\u7b56\u5212\u8005\u4f1a\u5982\u6b64\u7c97\u5fc3\u5927\u610f\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u76f8\u4fe1 McVeigh \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u82f1\u9634\u8c0b\u7684\u66ff\u7f6a\u7f8a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u662f\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u201d DeDeo \u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u5f80\u5f80\u5728\u4e8e\u5ba1\u7f8e\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u201d \u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u67d0\u4e00\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\uff0c\u8fc7\u5206\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e0e\u201c\u7edf\u4e00\u201d\u89e3\u91ca\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u65e0\u6240\u4e0d\u5305\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u6709\u4ee3\u4ef7\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u5f80\u5f80\u65e2\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u53c8\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e8b\u60c5\uff1a\u5b83\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u771f\u7406\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\u9690\u85cf\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u7ecf\u7531\u64cd\u7eb5\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u8bf1\u4f7f\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u770b\u5230\u865a\u5e7b\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8d85\u81ea\u7136\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u4eba\u4e5f\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5408\u53d6\u8c2c\u8bef\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fc7\u5206\u91cd\u89c6\u5171\u540c\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u7684\u503e\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5dee\u5f02\uff1a\u90a3\u4e9b\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u7684\u4fe1\u4f17\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u4eba\u7c7b\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u76f8\u4fe1\u522b\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

DeDeo \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u89e3\u91ca\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4f1a\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u7740\u8ff7\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u5f15\u7528\u9ea6\u514b\u65af\u97e6\u7535\u78c1\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u7528\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\u2014\u2014\u89e3\u91ca\u5c06\u4e24\u79cd\u770b\u4e0d\u89c1\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u201c\u7edf\u4e00\u201d\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u79cd\u5ba1\u7f8e\u89c2\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u65f6\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u7684\u9b45\u529b\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u6ee5\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e DeDeo \u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8ba9\u4eba\u4fdd\u6301\u8bda\u5b9e\u7684\u662f\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u6784\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6709\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n


5. \u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u5f53\u53ea\u770b\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd<\/p>\n

\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u800c\u5f53\u524d\u8bc4\u4f30\u5efa\u6a21\u65f6\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u6307\u6807\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5224\u5b9a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u53ea\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e86\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u2014\u2014\u5982\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u6216\u5171\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u2014\u2014\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5176\u5b83\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u4e86\u89e3\u4f18\u79c0\u53ef\u670d\u4f17\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5e94\u5f53\u5177\u5907\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u9009\u62e9\u66f4\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee5\u6b64\u6765\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u6307\u5bfc\u751f\u6d3b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5173\u4e8e\u4f55\u4e3a\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u672a\u77e5\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u5173\u4e8e\u4f18\u79c0\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u6587\u5316\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u3001\u6291\u6216\u662f\u4eba\u7684\u5fc3\u667a\u53d1\u80b2\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5173\u7cfb\uff08\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u5148\u5929\u8d4b\u4e88\u8fd8\u662f\u540e\u5929\u5b66\u4e60\uff09\uff1f\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5171\u540c\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\uff1f\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u6839\u672c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u4f55\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\uff1f\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5c06\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u63cf\u8ff0\/\u89c2\u6d4b\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u7684\uff1f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u7528\u5230\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u662f\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u66f4\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u9700\u8981\u4fa7\u91cd\u8ba9\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u7406\u89e3\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.santafe.edu\/news-center\/news\/new-paper-what-makes-explanation-good-enough<\/p>\n

\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587


\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81eaNature\u3001Science\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605\uff1a<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/p>\n

\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u4e4b\u7236\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u771f\u6b63\u6559\u4f1a\u673a\u5668\u7406\u89e3<\/a>
\u7528\u4e50\u9ad8\u79ef\u6728\u7ed9\u4f60\u7684\u5b9d\u5b9d\u8bb2\u61c2\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406<\/a>
\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u67616\u6761\u901f\u89c8\uff1a\u8681\u7fa4\u4f18\u5316\u7b97\u6cd5\u3001\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u81ea\u6307\u2026\u2026<\/a><\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/a><\/p>\n

\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587 <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bed \u4ec0\u4e48\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u5177\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\uff1f\u6765\u81ea\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5916\u8058\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u5361\u8010\u57fa\u00b7\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u6559\u6388 DeDeo \u548c Zachary Wojtowicz \u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u300a\u8ba4\u77e5\u79d1\u5b66\u8d8b\u52bf\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u63a5\u53d7\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u800c\u8a00\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u6216\u9053\u5fb7\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u79c0\u7684…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23777,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23783"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23783"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23783\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23783"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=23783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}