{"id":24343,"date":"2021-03-08T16:03:19","date_gmt":"2021-03-08T08:03:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=24343"},"modified":"2021-03-08T16:03:19","modified_gmt":"2021-03-08T08:03:19","slug":"%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%ba%e6%9c%89%e4%ba%ba%e7%94%a8%ef%bc%8c%e6%9c%ba%e6%9c%89%e6%9c%ba%e7%94%a8-%e6%96%b0%e4%b9%a6%e3%80%8aai-3-0%e3%80%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=24343","title":{"rendered":"\u672a\u6765\u667a\u80fd\uff1a\u4eba\u6709\u4eba\u7528\uff0c\u673a\u6709\u673a\u7528 | \u65b0\u4e66\u300aAI 3.0\u300b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5bfc\u8bed<\/p>\n

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\u738b\u98de\u8dc3 | \u4f5c\u8005<\/p>\n


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2019\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u6e5b\u5e90\u8be2\u95ee\u6211\u662f\u5426\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7c73\u6b47\u5c14\u6b63\u5728\u521b\u4f5c\u7684Artificial Intelligence:A Guide for Thinking Humans\uff0c\u6211\u8bfb\u8fc7\u4f5c\u8005\u5df2\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u540e\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u559c\u7231\u5176\u5185\u5bb9\u4e0e\u98ce\u683c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u89c2\u70b9\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u5171\u9e23\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6211\u968f\u5373\u5411\u5b66\u751f\u4eec\u63a8\u8350\uff0c\u5e76\u5f97\u5230\u738b\u6653\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3001\u5373\u5c06\u535a\u58eb\u6bd5\u4e1a\u7684\u674e\u7389\u73c2\u548c\u5f20\u6167\u540c\u5b66\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u54cd\u5e94\u3002\u5de7\u5408\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e09\u4f4d\u90fd\u5728\u4ece\u4e8b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u4e00\u7ebf\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e14\u90fd\u6709\u5728\u7f8e\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u738b\u6653\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u5177\u6709\u4e3b\u6301\u7ffb\u8bd1\u300a\u673a\u5668\u5d1b\u8d77\u300b\uff08Rise of the Machines\uff1aA Cybernetic History\uff09\u548c\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u673a\u5668\u300b\uff08Social Machines:The Coming Collision of Artificial Intelligence,Social Networking,and Humanity\uff09\u7b49\u6570\u90e8\u91cd\u8981\u8457\u4f5c\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5979\u4eec\u662f\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6b64\u4e66\u96be\u5f97\u7684\u4eba\u9009\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u5b66\u672f\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u8bfb\u6027\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u4fdd\u8bc1\u8d28\u91cf\u30022019\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u501f\u8d74\u6ce2\u7279\u5170\u53c2\u52a0\u82f1\u7279\u5c14\u5e74\u5ea6\u7814\u53d1\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6211\u6765\u5230\u7c73\u6b47\u5c14\u7684\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u62dc\u8bbf\u4e86\u5979\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5de5\u4f5c\u548c\u5927\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002

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\u5728\u201cGEB\u201d\u4e00\u4e66\u7684\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4faf\u4e16\u8fbe\u66fe\u5217\u51fa\u5173\u4e8e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u201c\u5341\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u731c\u60f3\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c31\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u97f3\u4e50\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u65f6\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c31\u5199\u51fa\u4f18\u7f8e\u7684\u97f3\u4e50\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u97f3\u4e50\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u60c5\u611f\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u7a0b\u5e8f\u80fd\u591f\u62e5\u6709\u6211\u4eec\u4eba\u7c7b\u6240\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5b83\u7edd\u65e0\u53ef\u80fd\u8c31\u5199\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u4f18\u7f8e\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4faf\u4e16\u8fbe\u7531\u6b64\u5bf9\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u201c\u6050\u60e7\u201d\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u5bb6\u6f58\u516c\u51ef\u201c\u9519\u6784\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5728\u7406\u6027\u6216\u6280\u672f\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u672c\u7136\u7684\u827a\u672f\u6216\u54f2\u5b66\u6027\u7684\u53cd\u6620\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u7ed3\u5408\u667a\u80fd\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u63d0\u5021\u7684\u201c\u5e7f\u4e49\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u5b9a\u7406\u201d\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u6211\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u6e90\u81ea\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e0c\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279\uff08D.Hilbert\uff09\u7684\u68a6\u60f3\uff0c\u5373\u6570\u5b66\u63a8\u7406\u673a\u68b0\u5316\u7684\u201c\u5e0c\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279\u7eb2\u9886\u201d\u3002\u4f2f\u7279\u5170\u00b7\u7f57\u7d20\uff08Bertrand Russell\uff09\u4e0e\u963f\u5c14\u5f17\u96f7\u5fb7\u00b7\u6000\u5fb7\u6d77\uff08Alfred N.Whitehead\uff09\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ed9\u8fd9\u4e00\u68a6\u60f3\u5960\u5b9a\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u4e8c\u4eba\u82b1\u4e8610\u5e74\u7684\u5fc3\u8840\u6210\u5c31\u4e86\u4e00\u90e8\u4e09\u5377\u672c\u7684\u300a\u6570\u5b66\u539f\u7406\u300b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u8fd9\u57fa\u77f3\u5c31\u8ba9\u4e09\u4e2a\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u51fb\u788e\u3002\u5148\u662f\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u63a5\u7740\u56fe\u7075\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56fe\u7075\u673a\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u5f52\u4e8e\u673a\u68b0\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\uff08John von Neumann\uff09\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u6570\u5b57\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u64cd\u4f5c\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6210\u5c31\u4e86\u4eca\u65e5\u4e4b\u4fe1\u606f\u4ea7\u4e1a\u201c\u65e7\u201dIT(information technology\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f)\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u8fc8\u5411\u667a\u80fd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u201c\u65b0\u201dIT(intelligent technology\uff0c\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f)\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u90b1\u5947-\u56fe\u7075\u8bba\u9898\uff08Church-Turing thesis\uff09\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5728\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u6709\u610f\u65e0\u610f\u7684\u5f15\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u5173\u4e8e\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u601d\u8003\u548c\u8ba4\u8bc6\u9010\u6e10\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6d3e\u522b\uff1a\u201c\u56fe\u7075\u6d3e\u201d\u548c\u201c\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u6d3e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56fe\u7075\u6d3e\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b80\u5355\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u590d\u6742\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u667a\u80fd\u3002\u4ece\u7269\u7406\u7b26\u53f7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u667a\u80fd\u5230\u8054\u7ed3\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u60f3\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u81f3\u4eca\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u662f\u6784\u5efa\u667a\u80fd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u6e90\u6cc9\u3002\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u6d3e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u6784\u5efa\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u89c4\u5f8b\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u89c4\u5f8b\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u5e94\u6210\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e00\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u52a8\u56e0\u548c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u624d\u662f\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u73b0\u72b6\u7ee7\u7eed\u6f14\u5316\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u6d3e\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0a\u81f3\u4eca\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4ea7\u751f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u7406\u89e3\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u610f\u4e49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u6d3e\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5219\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5bf9\u667a\u80fd\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u6307\u5bfc\u6027\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u5148\u4e8e\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5373\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u7269\u7406\u3001\u751f\u547d\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e14\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e0d\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u8bed\u8a00\u548c\u60f3\u8c61\u7b49\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u534e\u4eba\u5b66\u8005\u738b\u6d69\u665a\u5e74\u66fe\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u4e0e\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u603b\u7ed3\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u8ba4\u4e3a\u673a\u5668\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u4eba\u8111\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u6570\u5b66\u4e0d\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u6570\u5b66\u4e0d\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u660e\u7684\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u8fd8\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u8d85\u8d8a\u4eba\u8111\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6211\u66fe\u628a\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u5173\u4e8e\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u603b\u7ed3\u4e3a\u201c\u5e7f\u4e49\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u5b9a\u7406\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u667a\u80fd\u5206\u4e3a\u7b97\u6cd5\u667a\u80fd\uff08algorithmic intelligence\uff0cAI\uff09\u3001\u8bed\u8a00\u667a\u80fd\uff08linguistic intelligence\uff0cLI\uff09\u548c\u60f3\u8c61\u667a\u80fd\uff08imaginative intelligence\uff0cII\uff09\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u7b97\u6cd5\u667a\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u8d85\u8d8a\u8bed\u8a00\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u8bed\u8a00\u667a\u80fd\u53c8\u65e0\u6cd5\u8d85\u8d8a\u60f3\u8c61\u667a\u80fd\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u5728\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u9ad8\u7b49\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u6240\u8a00\uff1a\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u6807\u8bc6\u4e0d\u662f\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u60f3\u8c61\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u5e7f\u4e49\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5c14\u5b9a\u7406\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u56fe\u7075\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373AI\u7684\u5168\u4f53\u548c\u6781\u9650\u662fLI\uff0cLI\u7684\u5168\u4f53\u548c\u6781\u9650\u662fII\uff1b\u4e8c\u662fII\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u548c\u5177\u4f53\u5316\u662fLI\uff0c\u800cLI\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u548c\u5177\u4f53\u5316\u662fAI\u3002\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u53ea\u80fd\u662fAI\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fbe\u5230\u4eba\u7c7b\u6240\u5177\u6709\u7684LI\u548cII\u5c42\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u56de\u5230\u4faf\u4e16\u8fbe\u5bf9\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u201c\u8fc7\u6fc0\u53cd\u5e94\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u518d\u7528\u4e16\u754c\u56f4\u68cb\u9ad8\u624b\u67ef\u6d01\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u52a0\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u5728\u674e\u4e16\u77f3\u4ee51\u22364\u8f93\u7ed9AlphaGo\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u67ef\u6d01\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u8feb\u4e0d\u53ca\u5f85\u60f3\u8981\u6311\u6218AlphaGo\u7684\u58f0\u660e\uff1a\u201c\u5c31\u7b97AlphaGo\u6218\u80dc\u4e86\u674e\u4e16\u77f3\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u8d62\u4e0d\u4e86\u6211\u3002\u201d\u5728\u4ee50\u22363\u7684\u6bd4\u5206\u8d1f\u4e8eAlphaGo\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u67ef\u6d01\u6d51\u8eab\u98a4\u6296\uff0c\u53ea\u60f3\u5927\u58f0\u75db\u54ed\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3aAlphaGo\u5b9e\u5728\u592a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4e86\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u5b83\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u4e0a\u5e1d\u201d\u3002\u6211\u8bb0\u5f97\u5728\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u9996\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u62a5\u9053\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u53cd\u5e94\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u201c\u4e0a\u5e1d\uff1f\u8c01\u7684\u4e0a\u5e1d\uff1f\u53cd\u6b63\u4e0d\u662f\u6211\u7684\u4e0a\u5e1d\u3002\u201d\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u67ef\u6d01\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0e\u4faf\u4e16\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4e13\u4e1a\u6267\u7740\u540e\u7684\u5e94\u6fc0\u9519\u6784\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u4e3a\u67ef\u6d01\u7684\u5931\u5229\u800c\u5bf9AlphaGo\u611f\u5230\u754f\u60e7\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u987b\u56e0\u4faf\u4e16\u8fbe\u800c\u5bf9\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u611f\u5230\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u6301\u7eed\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u5e94\u662f\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u6216\u6709\u95f2\u9636\u7ea7\u57f9\u517b\u667a\u80fd\u79d1\u5b66\u7d20\u8d28\u7684\u8111\u529b\u7ec3\u4e60\uff0c\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u66f4\u5e94\u5173\u6ce8\u63a2\u7d22\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u53ca\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u3001\u5408\u89c4\u3001\u5408\u7406\u4e0e\u5408\u60c5\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

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70\u591a\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u8bfa\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u7ef4\u7eb3\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u8bba\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u65e7IT\uff08\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\uff09\u7684\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u5f15\u53d1\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u673a\u5668\u53d6\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u62c5\u5fc3\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u7ef4\u7eb3\u8fd8\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u4eba\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u7528\u5904\u300b\uff08The Human Use of Human Beings\uff09\u6765\u4e13\u95e8\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u80fd\u53d6\u4ee3\u542f\u8fea\u201d\uff08Information will never replace illumination.\uff09\u3002\u542f\u8fea\u662f\u8bed\u8a00\u548c\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u673a\u5668\u53ca\u5176\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u4ee3\u7801\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d6\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u8fd8\u4e3a\u201c\u673a\u5668\u53d6\u4ee3\u4eba\u201d\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edd\u597d\u7684\u8bf4\u660e\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u82f1\u6587\u4e2d\u201ccomputer\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u6307\u4ece\u4e8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5929\u4f5c\u4e3a\u673a\u5668\u7684\u201ccomputer\u201d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u5168\u4ee3\u66ff\u4e86\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u201ccomputer\u201d\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201ccomputer\u201d\u7684\u673a\u5668\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u4f7f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5931\u4e1a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u3001\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u3001\u67b6\u6784\u5e08\u3001\u7b97\u6cd5\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u7ba1\u7406\u5458\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u80dc\u4e8e\u201c\u6050\u201d\u8fa9\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u673a\u5668\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9519\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5931\u4e1a\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u80fd\u591f\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u66f4\u591a\u3001\u66f4\u597d\u3001\u9002\u5408\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u793e\u4f1a\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5728100\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u88ab\u7814\u7a76\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u6770\u6587\u65af\u6096\u8bba\u201d\uff08Jevons paradox\uff09\u3002\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u00b7\u65af\u5766\u5229\u00b7\u6770\u6587\u65af\uff08William Stanley Jevons\uff09\u662f19\u4e16\u7eaa\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u7528\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u3002\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5de5\u4e1a\u5927\u91cf\u6d88\u8017\u7164\u8d44\u6e90\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6c61\u67d3\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5229\u7528\u6280\u672f\u63d0\u9ad8\u71c3\u7164\u6548\u7387\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u6770\u6587\u65af\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff1a\u70e7\u7164\u6548\u7387\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u8017\u7164\u91cf\u5c06\u4f1a\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6770\u6587\u65af\u6096\u8bba\uff1a\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5229\u7528\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6548\u7387\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u751f\u4ea7\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u9700\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

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40\u591a\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u4faf\u4e16\u8fbe\u5728\u201cGEB\u201d\u4e4b\u672b\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5341\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u731c\u60f3\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u7c73\u6b47\u5c14\u8f6c\u884c\u968f\u5176\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u7c73\u6b47\u5c14\u5728\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u7ed3\u8bed\u4e2d\u4e5f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5f53\u4e0b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9886\u57df\u5907\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u516d\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u53ca\u5176\u7b54\u6848\u6216\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e5f\u662f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e0e\u671f\u671b\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u610f\u4e49\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c06\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u547d\u540d\u4e3a\u300aAI 3.0\u300b\u4e5f\u7b97\u5408\u7406\u3002\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u66f4\u662f\u575a\u4fe1\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u5360\u636e\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI 1.0\uff09\u548c\u8fd120\u5e74\u6765\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u529b\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI 2.0\uff09\uff0c\u5411\u4eba\u673a\u6df7\u5408\u3001\u865a\u5b9e\u4ea4\u4e92\u7684\u5e73\u884c\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI 3.0\uff09\u8fc8\u8fdb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672a\u6765\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u79d1\u6280\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5c06\u4eba\u4ee5\u65b0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u7f6e\u4e8e\u6838\u5fc3\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5207\u5b9e\u843d\u5b9e\u201c\u4eba\u6709\u4eba\u7528\uff0c\u673a\u6709\u673a\u7528\u201d\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u5219\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u7269\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08cyber-physical-social systems\uff0cCPSS\uff09\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u667a\u80fd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u529b\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e4b\u529b\u3001\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e4b\u529b\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u4e4b\u529b\u548c\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u4e4b\u529b\u80fd\u591f\u201c\u4e94\u529b\u5408\u4e00\u201d\uff0c\u4f7f\u667a\u80fd\u79d1\u6280\u80fd\u4e0a\u201c\u771f\u201d[TRUE=trust\uff08\u53ef\u4fe1\uff09+reliable\uff08\u53ef\u9760\uff09+useful\uff08\u6709\u7528\uff09+effective\uff08\u6709\u6548\uff09]\u4e4b\u201c\u9053\u201d[DAO=distributed\/decentralized\uff08\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\uff09+automated\/autonomous\uff08\u81ea\u52a8\u7684\uff09+organized\/ordered\uff08\u6709\u5e8f\u7684\uff09=decentralized autonomous organizations\uff08\u5206\u6743\u81ea\u6cbb\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff09]\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u8fc8\u5411\u667a\u80fd\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u667a\u6167\u793e\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8005\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u91cc\u5e0c\u00b7\u54c8\u8036\u514b\uff08Friedrich Hayek\uff09\u66fe\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u8d70\u8fc7\u4e86\u5934\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5c06\u65e0\u5bb9\u8eab\u4e4b\u5730\u3002\u201d\u540c\u7406\uff0c\u667a\u80fd\u8d8a\u8fc7\u4e86\u754c\uff0c\u4eba\u6027\u5c06\u65e0\u5904\u5b89\u8eab\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4e0d\u8d8a\u754c\uff1f\u6839\u636e\u5e7f\u4e49\u54e5\u5fb7\u5c14\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u5408\u89c4\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u4f9d\u9760\u4eba\u7c7b\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6587\u660e\u548c\u6cd5\u5236\u4fdd\u8bc1\uff0c\u667a\u80fd\u79d1\u6280\u53ea\u80fd\u8d77\u8f85\u52a9\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u6cd5\u52a1\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u3002\u5c06\u6765\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u7f6a\u72af\u4f1a\u975e\u5e38\u5c11\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u667a\u8b66\u201d\u6216\u201c\u6cd5\u52a1\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u201d\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u667a\u6167\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4ece\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u8fdc\u591a\u4e8e\u666e\u901a\u7684\u8b66\u5bdf\u548c\u6cd5\u5b98\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u968f\u667a\u80fd\u4ea7\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u800c\u6765\u7684\u667a\u6167\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5f62\u6001\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u53d1\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5e94\u8be5\u8003\u8651\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u524d\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u660e\u7565\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u9662\u957f\u5434\u4fe1\u4e1c\u6559\u6388\u548c\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u5434\u660e\u8f89\u5148\u751f\u5411\u6211\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u201c\u597d\u667a\u80fd\u201d\uff08\u201cHAO\u201dintelligence\uff09\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5c06\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u667a\u80fd\u878d\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u201cHAO\u201d\u597d\u667a\u80fd\u3002\u6211\u5341\u5206\u8d5e\u540c\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e0e\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u66f4\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u901a\u5411\u201c6S\u201d\u667a\u6167\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c6S\u201d\u662f\u6307\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u5fc5\u987b\u4f7f\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u5728\u7269\u7406\u7a7a\u95f4\u5b89\u5168(safety)\uff0c\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u7a7a\u95f4\u5b89\u5168(security)\uff0c\u5728\u751f\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\uff08sustainability\uff09\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u7684\u654f\u6377\u611f\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\uff08sensitivity\uff09\uff0c\u5b8c\u6210\u6709\u6548\u7684\u670d\u52a1(service)\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u667a\u6167\uff08smartness\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u5728\u4e8e\u77e5\u8bc6\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u548c\u5e73\u884c\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u4e14\u90e8\u5206\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff1a\u539f\u7406\u4e0e\u6280\u672f\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u3002\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u548c\u5e73\u884c\u667a\u80fd\u66fe\u7ecf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9065\u8fdc\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u65f6\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\u201c\u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\u201d\u201c\u8fb9\u7f18\u8ba1\u7b97\u201d\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u6570\u5b57\u5b6a\u751f\u201d\u6280\u672f\u7684\u8fc5\u731b\u53d1\u5c55\u4f7f\u5e73\u884c\u667a\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u53ef\u884c\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u548c\u56e2\u961f\u6b63\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u201cCopycat\u201d\u53ca\u5176\u540e\u7ee7\u8005\u201cMetacat\u201d\u5728\u5e73\u884c\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u77e5\u8bc6\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u671f\u671b\u4eca\u540e\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u4e0e\u7c73\u6b47\u5c14\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u5b66\u8005\u5c31\u6b64\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u8ba9AI 3.0\u65e9\u65e5\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u518d\u6b21\u795d\u8d3a\u7c73\u6b47\u5c14\u7684\u53c8\u4e00\u529b\u4f5c\u300aAI 3.0\u300b\u95ee\u4e16\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u9605\u8bfb\u6b64\u4e66\uff0c\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u667a\u80fd\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u53d1\u5c55\u3002
<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausal AI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/p>\n


\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u5df2\u7ecf\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u5b66\u754c\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4e3a\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u3001\u666e\u53ca\u63a8\u5e7f\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\u643a\u624b\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u5c06\u4e3e\u529e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u671f\u300c\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausalAI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u300d\u3002\u672c\u671f\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7740\u529b\u4e8e\u5b9e\u64cd\u6027\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u6027\uff0c\u5c06\u5e26\u9886\u5927\u5bb6\u7cbe\u8bfb\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u5411\u4e24\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u53d7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u5165\u95e8\u6559\u6750\u3002
1. Pearl, Judea, Madelyn Glymour, and Nicholas P. Jewell. Causal inference in statistics: A primer. John Wiley & Sons, 2016.\uff08\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\u8bd1\u7248\u300a\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u5165\u95e8\uff08\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7248\uff09\u300b\u5df2\u7531\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u51fa\u7248\uff09
2. Peters, Jonas, Dominik Janzing, and Bernhard Sch\u00f6lkopf. Elements of causal inference: foundations and learning algorithms. The MIT Press, 2017.
\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u6bcf\u5468\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u76f4\u64ad\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u95ee\u9898\u4ea4\u6d41\u3001\u91cd\u70b9\u6982\u5ff5\u5206\u4eab\u3001\u9605\u8bfb\u6982\u89c8\u548c\u7f16\u7a0b\u5b9e\u8df5\u5185\u5bb9\u5206\u6790\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u9002\u5408\u6709\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u6df1\u5165\u5b66\u4e60\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u91cd\u8981\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u89e3\u51b3\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53c2\u52a0\u3002\u8be6\u60c5\u53c2\u89c1\uff1a\u8fde\u63a5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u81ea\u52a8\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u4ea4\u53c9\u9886\u57df\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u518d\u542f\u822a<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n


\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb
\u8ba1\u7b97\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\uff1a\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e3a\u4f55\u9ad8\u80fd\u8017<\/a>
Science\u7ecf\u5178\u8bba\u6587\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u68c0\u6d4b\u590d\u6742\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff1f<\/a>
\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5982\u4f55\u63b7\u9ab0\u5b50\u2014\u2014\u4e09\u79cd\u6982\u7387\u7406\u8bba<\/a>\u627e\u5230\u4f60\u6df7\u4e71\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\u2014\u2014Kolmogorov\u590d\u6742\u5ea6<\/a>
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