{"id":24656,"date":"2021-03-19T22:34:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-19T14:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=24656"},"modified":"2021-03-19T22:34:00","modified_gmt":"2021-03-19T14:34:00","slug":"%e4%b8%a4%e5%a5%97%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%a1%86%e6%9e%b6%e6%b7%b1%e5%ba%a6%e5%89%96%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%9a%e6%bd%9c%e5%9c%a8%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%9c%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e4%b8%8e%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%84%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=24656","title":{"rendered":"\u4e24\u5957\u56e0\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u6df1\u5ea6\u5256\u6790\uff1a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b | \u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4f7f\u7528\u8303\u56f4\u6700\u5e7f\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6Donald Rubin\u6559\u6388\u57281978\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Potential Outcome Model\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u56fe\u7075\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005Judea Pearl\u6559\u6388\u57281995\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Structural Causal Model\uff0cSCM\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/a>\u7b2c\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u548c\u5927\u5bb6\u4e00\u8d77\u6765\u5efa\u7acb\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e86\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6253\u597d\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5185\u5bb9\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u8d77\u5230\u4e8b\u534a\u529f\u500d\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u672c\u6b21\u5206\u4eab\u9080\u8bf7\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7ec4\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u9646\u8d85\u8d85\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u4ece\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u8ddf\u5927\u5bb6\u5c55\u5f00\u6df1\u5ea6\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

1. \u8bb2\u8ff0\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u4e24\u5927\u6846\u67b6\uff1a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u4ed6\u4eec\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u8be6\u7ec6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8f6c\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

2. \u4e0e\u5927\u5bb6\u4e00\u8d77\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u5b9a\u7406\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7f18\u7531\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u611f\u77e5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u5206\u4eab\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u79d1\u4e2d\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7b49\uff0c\u501f\u52a9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u542f\u53d1\u5927\u5bb6\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u601d\u7ef4\u6765\u601d\u8003\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u9646\u8d85\u8d85<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7ec4\u535a\u58eb\u751f\uff0c \u7531Zoubin Ghahramani\u6559\u6388\u548cJos\u00e9 Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez-Lobato\u6559\u6388\u8054\u5408\u57f9\u517b\uff0cCarl Edward Rasmussen\u6559\u6388\u6307\u5bfc\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\u4ed6\u4e5f\u662fCambridge-T\u00fcbingen \u535a\u58eb\u5956\u5b66\u91d1\u7684\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\uff0c\u7531\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u00b7\u666e\u6717\u514b\u667a\u80fd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684Bernhard Sch\u00f6lkopf \u6559\u6388\u8054\u5408\u57f9\u517b\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u662f\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u5982\u4f55\u7ed3\u5408\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u3001\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u7406\u3001\u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u5e94\u7528\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u89e3\u51b3\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5982\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u89c6\u89c9\u548c\u533b\u7597\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e3b\u8981\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

[1] Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie. The Book of Why. 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n

[2] Judea Pearl, Madelyn Glymour, and Nicholas P. Jewell. Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer. 2016<\/span><\/p>\n

[3] Judea Pearl. Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. 2009.<\/span><\/p>\n

[4] Jonas Peters, Dominik Janzing, and Bernhard Sch\u00f6lkopf. Elements of Causal Inference: Foundations and Learning Algorithms. 2017<\/span><\/p>\n

[5] Miguel A. Hern\u00e1n and James M. Robins. Causal Inference: What if. 2020<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
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\u4ed8\u8d39\u53c2\u52a0<\/span>\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/a>\u53ef\u52a0\u5165\u817e\u8baf\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u53ef\u63d0\u95ee\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u7fa4\u804a\uff0c\u83b7\u53d6\u56de\u770b\u5730\u5740\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u793e\u533a\u79cd\u5b50\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u4e0e400\u4f59\u4f4d\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u793e\u533a\u7684\u4e00\u7ebf\u79d1\u7814\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u6c9f\u901a\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u63a8\u52a8\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u793e\u533a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/span>\uff08\u70b9\u51fb\u6587\u672b\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u5373\u53ef\u62a5\u540d\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u626b\u7801\u9884\u7ea6B\u7ad9\u514d\u8d39\u76f4\u64ad\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u62a5\u540d\u4e2d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u5df2\u7ecf\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u5b66\u754c\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4e3a\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u3001\u666e\u53ca\u63a8\u5e7f\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\u643a\u624b\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u5c06\u4e3e\u529e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u300c<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausalAI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a><\/span>\u300d\u3002\u672c\u671f\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7740\u529b\u4e8e\u5b9e\u64cd\u6027\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u6027\uff0c\u5c06\u5e26\u9886\u5927\u5bb6\u7cbe\u8bfb\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u5411\u4e24\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u53d7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u5165\u95e8\u6559\u6750\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
1. Pearl, Judea, Madelyn Glymour, and Nicholas P. Jewell. Causal inference in statistics: A primer. John Wiley & Sons, 2016.<\/span>\uff08\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\u8bd1\u7248\u300a\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u5165\u95e8\uff08\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7248\uff09\u300b\u5df2\u7531\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u51fa\u7248\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. Peters, Jonas, Dominik Janzing, and Bernhard Sch\u00f6lkopf. Elements of causal inference: foundations and learning algorithms. The MIT Press, 2017.<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u6bcf\u5468\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u76f4\u64ad\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u95ee\u9898\u4ea4\u6d41\u3001\u91cd\u70b9\u6982\u5ff5\u5206\u4eab\u3001\u9605\u8bfb\u6982\u89c8\u548c\u7f16\u7a0b\u5b9e\u8df5\u5185\u5bb9\u5206\u6790\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u9002\u5408\u6709\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u6df1\u5165\u5b66\u4e60\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u91cd\u8981\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u89e3\u51b3\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53c2\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u62a5\u540d\uff1a\uff08\u957f\u671f\u6709\u6548\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n


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\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u626b\u7801\u586b\u5199\u62a5\u540d\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u586b\u5199\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u4ed8\u6b3e\u6d41\u7a0b\uff0c\u63d0\u4ea4\u4fdd\u8bc1\u91d1299\u5143\u3002<\/span>\uff08\u7b26\u5408\u9000\u8d39\u6761\u4ef6\u540e\u53ef\u9000\u8d39\u3002\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

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