{"id":24670,"date":"2021-03-19T22:34:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-19T14:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=24670"},"modified":"2021-03-19T22:34:00","modified_gmt":"2021-03-19T14:34:00","slug":"nature%e8%ae%a1%e7%ae%97%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e7%bb%bc%e8%bf%b0%ef%bc%9a%e7%bb%8f%e7%94%b1%e5%87%86%e5%ae%9e%e9%aa%8c%ef%bc%8c%e4%bb%8e%e8%a7%82%e5%af%9f%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e4%b8%ad%e6%8e%a8%e6%b5%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=24670","title":{"rendered":"Nature\u8ba1\u7b97\u79d1\u5b66\u7efc\u8ff0\uff1a\u7ecf\u7531\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u4ece\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u63a8\u6d4b\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u4f46\u53c8\u5341\u5206\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u73af\u8282\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u7bc7\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e Nature Computational Science <\/em>\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u7528\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u91cf\u5316\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u300b\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\u3001\u5229\u7528\u6570\u636e\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u2014\u2014\u5373\u501f\u52a9\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5224\u5b9a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5728\u5178\u578b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u56de\u7b54\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u8fd8\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u63a8\u8fdb\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bf9\u6765\u81ea\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u9ad8\u7ef4\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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Tony Liu, Lyle Ungar & Konrad Kording<\/span> | \u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n

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Quantifying causality in data science with quasi-experiments<\/span><\/section>\n
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<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u8bb8\u591a\u4ece\u89c2\u5bdf\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6280\u672f\u90fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5047\u8bbe\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08\u5f71\u54cd\u6cbb\u7597 x \u548c\u7ed3\u679c y \u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff09<\/span>\u90fd\u5728\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca[9]\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u6709\u6548\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u52a0\u5165\u56de\u5f52\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u5426\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20[10]\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u653e\u7f6e\u5728\u91cd\u8981\u6743\u91cd\u4e0a<\/span>\uff08\u56fe1b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5305\u542b\u6240\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08\u800c\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u78b0\u649e\u56e0\u5b50\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u5f80\u5f80\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u7f3a\u5931\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0a\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u529e\u6cd5\u68c0\u9a8c\u7f3a\u5931\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u5426\u662f\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u9664\u4e86\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8fd8\u5fc5\u987b\u80fd\u591f\u8bc6\u522b\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u78b0\u649e\u56e0\u5b50\u3002\u4e0e\u540c\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd x \u548c y \u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u78b0\u649e\u56e0\u5b50\u662f\u53d7 x \u548c y \u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u56fe1b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u78b0\u649e\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u9519[11, 12]\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u5728\u80ba\u708e\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u54ee\u5598\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u4f4f\u9662\uff08x\uff09\u548c\u80ba\u708e\uff08y\uff09\u7684\u5bf9\u649e\u56e0\u5b50\uff1a\u80ba\u708e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4f4f\u9662\u75c5\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u54ee\u5598\u75c7\u72b6\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u4f4f\u9662\u671f\u95f4\u906d\u9047\u8fc7\u654f\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u6d4b\u91cf\u76f8\u5173\u53d8\u91cf\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u6df7\u6742\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u88ab\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u662f\u78b0\u649e\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

Judea Pearl \u63a8\u5e7f\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08SCM\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6846\u67b6[11]\u3002SCM \u5c06\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe<\/span>\uff08DAGs\uff09<\/span>\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u8868\u8fbe\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8be5\u6570\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u6765\u81ea DAG \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u91cf\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a do-calculus\u3002\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7f8e\u5999\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u56fe\u5f62\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u80fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3[13]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u9700\u8981\u6709\u9886\u57df\u77e5\u8bc6\u624d\u80fd\u6784\u5efa\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684DAG\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc1\u660e\u5728\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u7f3a\u5c11\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20[3]\u3002\u867d\u7136\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u68c0\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u662f\u5426\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027[2]\uff0c\u6765\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u68c0\u9a8c\u56fe\u4e2d\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u6df7\u6dc6\u56e0\u7d20\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684[14]<\/strong>\u3002\u9664\u975e\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u5047\u8bbe\u7684DAG \u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u575a\u6301\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u603b\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u672a\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u8fd8\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u6280\u672f\u65e8\u5728\u4ece\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b83\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u975e\u6df7\u6dc6\u5047\u8bbe\u53ca\u5176\u53d8\u4f53\u3002\u5339\u914d\u548c\u9006\u6982\u7387\u52a0\u6743\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u504f\u5dee[12, 15]\u3002\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c06\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679ctreatment effect\u4f30\u8ba1\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u5728\u9ad8\u7ef4\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad[16]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9886\u57df[18, 19, 20]\u7684\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u53d1\u73b0[17]\u7684\u70ed\u70b9\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u672c\u8eab\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u56fe\uff1a\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u65e0\u6df7\u6dc6\u56e0\u5b50\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u6f5c\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u8981\u6c42\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u6df7\u6dc6\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u4f46\u786e\u5b9e\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u548c\u6570\u91cf\u4f5c\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u5047\u8bbe[21]\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u65e0\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\u901a\u5e38\u5f88\u96be\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5f3a\u8c03\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7b56\u7565\u4e4b\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u719f\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6846\u67b6<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u81ea\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u95f4[22, 23]\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6280\u672f\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u6df7\u4e71\u56e0\u5b50\u66f4\u5408\u7406\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u56de\u987e\u5229\u7528\u81ea\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u79f0\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1[24]\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5b83\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5fc5\u987b\u901a\u8fc7\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u5fc3\u7684 X \u6765\u5b9e\u73b0<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u56fe2a\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u6c42\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u6df7\u6dc6\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u6c42\u5176\u67d0\u4e2a\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u6df7\u6dc6\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u5b83\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe2. \u5728\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u793a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cfIV \u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cdx \u5bf9 y \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56feA\uff1a\u4ea4\u53c9\u8fb9\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u63a8\u65ad\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5047\u8bbe: \u65e0\u5173\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>\uff08\u4ea4\u53c9\u7070\u8fb9\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u548c y \u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u672a\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u6df7\u6742<\/span>\uff08\u4ea4\u53c9\u7ea2\u8fb9\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5f53 x \u5bf9 y \u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u865a\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u6df7\u6dc6\u65f6\u3002\u56feB\uff1a\u7528100\u4e2a\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5bf9\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u6a59\u8272\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5178\u578b\u56de\u5f52<\/span>\uff08\u84dd\u8272\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u679c\u76f4\u65b9\u56fe\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u56feC\uff1a\u5f53 x \u5bf9 y \u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u865a\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u5b58\u5728\u6df7\u6dc6\u56e0\u5b50\u5e76\u8fdd\u53cd\u65e0\u5173\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\uff0c\u7528100\u4e2a\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5bf9 IV <\/span>\uff08\u6a59\u8272\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5178\u578b\u56de\u5f52<\/span>\uff08\u84dd\u8272\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u679c\u76f4\u65b9\u56fe\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790<\/span>\uff08IV analysis\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u4f8b\u5b50\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u4ee5\u51fa\u751f\u5b63\u8282\uff08z\uff09\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5fc5\u4fee\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff08x\uff09\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4eba\u672a\u6765\u5de5\u8d44\uff08y\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u54cd[25]\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u5dde\uff0c\u513f\u7ae5\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u516d\u5c81\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u8fdb\u5165\u5b66\u6821\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e74\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5b66\u6821\u8be5\u5e74\u7ea7\u4e2d\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e74\u8f7b\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5dde\u6cd5\u5f8b\u8981\u6c42\u5b66\u751f\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u5e74\u9f84\u4e4b\u524d\u90fd\u8981\u4e0a\u5b66<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u598216\u5c81\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u51fa\u751f\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u4e0a\u5b66\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e5f\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u80fd\u591f\u5047\u8bbe\u51fa\u751f\u5b63\u8282\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5176\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5fc5\u987b\u901a\u8fc7\u6559\u80b2\u6c34\u5e73\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0<\/strong>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u51fa\u751f\u5b63\u8282\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u6216\u65e0\u5173\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u5f53\u53d7\u5230\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u60a3\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u53cd\u5411\u6cbb\u7597[29]\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5dde\u8fdd\u80cc\u4e86\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u5e74\u9f84\u8f83\u665a\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u8fdb\u5165\u5b66\u6821\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5dde\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5fc5\u987b\u4e0e\u5e72\u9884\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f31\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7cbe\u786e\u5ea6\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ea7\u751f\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u5fc5\u987b\u786e\u4fdd\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u5f97\u5230\u6ee1\u8db3\uff0c\u8fdd\u53cd\u4efb\u4f55\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5929\u6c14\u662f\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf[29, 30]\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u5929\u6c14\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u5408\u9002\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5bf9\u4e00\u4f4d\u884c\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u7814\u7a76\u953b\u70bc\u5bf9\u5fc3\u7406\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba1\u5212\u5229\u7528\u6c14\u6e29\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u4e2a\u4eba\u953b\u70bc\u91cf\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u5f88\u76f4\u89c2<\/span>\uff08\u6e29\u5ea6\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e2a\u4eba\u953b\u70bc\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u968f\u673a\u51fa\u73b0\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6e29\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u953b\u70bc\u53ea\u6709\u5fae\u5f31\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5728\u5ba4\u5185\u953b\u70bc\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5ba4\u5916\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdd\u53cd\u4e86\u65e0\u5173\u5047\u8bbe<\/span>\uff08\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u7ecf\u7531\u953b\u70bc\u4e4b\u5916\u5f71\u54cd\u5fc3\u7406\u5065\u5eb7\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u60c5\u7eea\u5931\u8c03\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5929\u6c14\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4ed4\u7ec6\u8003\u8651\u4fbf\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8be5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u662f\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u9002\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u770b\u4f3c\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7528\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6765\u6e90\u4f30\u8ba1\u975e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08\u88681\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u88681. \u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u73b0\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u673a\u4f1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n

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4. \u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7b56\u7565\u4e4b\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7528\u81ea\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52<\/span>\uff08Regression discontinuity designs\uff09<\/span>[32]\u3002\u5728\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u53d8\u91cfX\u662f\u67d0\u4e00\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cfR\u7684\u8df3\u8dc3\u70b9\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dR\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u8003\u8bd5\u6216\u8840\u538b\u8bfb\u6570\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8df3\u8dc3\u70b9\u5e76\u975e\u6e10\u53d8<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5e74\u9f84\u572850\u5c81\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u60a3\u8005\u5f97\u5230\u764c\u75c7\u7b5b\u67e5\uff0c\u6291\u6216\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\uff09<\/span>\uff0cx \u503c\u662f\u51c6\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u5141\u8bb8\u5bf9\u5e72\u9884 x \u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c y \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08\u56fe3a\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe3. \u65ad\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u793a\u610f\u56fe\uff08Regression discontinuity designs\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u56feA\uff1a\u63cf\u8ff0\u65ad\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4f55\u4f7f\u7528\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf R \u4e2d\u7684\u9608\u503c t \u6709\u6548\u5730\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5904\u7406 x <\/span>\uff08\u4ea4\u53c9\u7ea2\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u5176\u5bf9Y\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u56feB\uff1a\u7ed3\u679cY\u5bf9\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cfR\u7684\u6563\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u84dd\u70b9\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5c40\u90e8\u56de\u5f52\u62df\u5408<\/span>\uff08\u7ea2\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u62df\u5408\u5206\u522b\u4f7f\u7528\u65ad\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u865a\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u5de6\u53f3\u4e24\u4fa7\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u3002\u56feC\uff1a\u7ed3\u679cY\u5bf9\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cfR\u7684\u6563\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u84dd\u70b9\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5c40\u90e8\u56de\u5f52\u62df\u5408<\/span>\uff08\u7ea2\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u62df\u5408\u5206\u522b\u4f7f\u7528\u65ad\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u865a\u7ebf\uff09<\/span>\u5de6\u53f3\u4e24\u4fa7\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u65ad\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5178\u578b\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4e2d\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8bc1\u4e66\uff08x\uff09\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u5c31\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u2014\u2014\u5982\u662f\u5426\u83b7\u5f97\u5956\u5b66\u91d1\uff08y\uff09\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ad8\u4e2d\u751f\u53c2\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u8003\u8bd5\uff0c\u5373\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f18\u79c0\u5956\u5b66\u91d1\u8d44\u683c\u8003\u8bd5(NMSQT) \uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3\u6700\u4f4e\u5206\u6570\u7ebf\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u5168\u56fd\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u4f18\u79c0\u8bc1\u4e66\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u662f NMSQT \u6d4b\u8bd5\u5206\u6570\uff08r\uff09\u3002\u521a\u521a\u8fbe\u5230\u622a\u6b62\u5206\u6570\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u4e0e\u521a\u521a\u9519\u8fc7\u622a\u6b62\u5206\u6570\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u7684\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u63a5\u8fd1\u622a\u6b62\u5206\u6570\u7684\u4f18\u5f02\u8bc1\u4e66<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u534a\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u4f18\u5f02\u8bc1\u4e66\u4e0e\u63a5\u53d7\u9608\u503c\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u5956\u5b66\u91d1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u533b\u7597\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u80ba\u708e\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u5206\uff0c\u4e0e\u9608\u503c\u5224\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u4f4f\u9662\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u65ad\u70b9\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u65ad\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u83b7\u5f97\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5728\u9608\u503c\u7684\u5de6\u53f3\u4e24\u4fa7\u62df\u5408\u8fd0\u884c\u53d8\u91cf r <\/span>\uff08\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5206\u6570\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7ed3\u679c y <\/span>\uff08\u5956\u5b66\u91d1\u6570\u989d\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u7ebf\u6027\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52<\/span>\uff08\u56fe3b \u63cf\u8ff0\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\uff09<\/span>[34, 35]\u3002\u9608\u503c x<\/span> \uff08\u4f18\u5f02\u8bc1\u4e66\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u5927\u5c0f\u7b49\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u62df\u5408\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u7a0b\u5728\u9608\u503c\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5b9e\u73b0\u65ad\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9645\u8003\u8651\u8003\u8651\u5e26\u5bbd\u89c4\u6a21\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ddd\u79bb\u80fd\u591f\u5e76\u4e14\u4ecd\u7136\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u5730\u8fdb\u884c\u968f\u673a\u5904\u7406\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u503c\u6709\u591a\u8fdc\uff1f\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u5e26\u5bbd\u4f7f\u51c6\u968f\u673a\u5904\u7406\u66f4\u4e3a\u53ef\u4fe1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u62df\u5408\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5bb9\u91cf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5e26\u5bbd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5982\u679c\u65ad\u70b9\u53d8\u91cf r \u548c\u7ed3\u679c y \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u56fe3C \u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u6240\u793a\uff1a\u6ce8\u610f\u5728\u9608\u503c\u5de6\u53f3\u5c40\u90e8\u56de\u5f52\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4e0e\u7ed3\u679c y \u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u5316\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u3002\u5e78\u8fd0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u63a2\u7d22\u6700\u4f73\u4e14\u7531\u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5e26\u5bbd\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5bandwidth selection methods[36, 37]\u3002\u5728\u9608\u503c\u4e24\u4fa7\u62df\u5408\u5c40\u90e8\u6a21\u578b\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u9608\u503c\u5904\u7406\u7684\u51c6\u968f\u673a\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u80fd\u591f\u91cf\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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5. \u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7b56\u7565\u4e4b\u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u5206<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe4. \u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u5206\u6cd5\u793a\u610f\u56fe<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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6. \u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u8003\u8651\u662f\uff0c\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6216\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0e\u5e72\u9884\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u3001\u65ad\u70b9\u56de\u5f52\u4e2d\u9608\u503c\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4e0e\u5426\uff1b\u6216\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u53ef\u4e0e\u6cbb\u7597\u7ec4\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u662f\u5426\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c06\u73b0\u6709\u6570\u636e\u6539\u9020\u6210\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\uff1a\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u80dc\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u201d[56]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u9002\u5f53\u8003\u8651\u6280\u672f\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bfb\u627e\u9002\u5408\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5931\u6548\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4e0a\u4e00\u8282\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed4\u7ec6\u8003\u8651\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4ece\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u9002\u5408\u5e94\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u594f\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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7. \u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5e94\u8be5\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66 \uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u5730\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u63a8\u8350\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94[57]\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u7528\u4ea7\u54c1\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e2d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u51b2\u51fb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf[58]\u3002\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u6280\u672f\u53eb\u505a\u5b5f\u5fb7\u5c14\u968f\u673a\u5316\uff0c\u5b83\u4f7f\u7528\u9057\u4f20\u53d8\u5f02\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf[59, 60]\u3002\u65ad\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u5728\u533b\u7597\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u6bd4\u6bd4\u7686\u662f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u6269\u5c55\u81f3\u66f4\u591a\u5e94\u7528[61]\u3002\u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u5206\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u6267\u884c\u5728\u8bf8\u5982\u5e7f\u544a[62]\u548c\u516c\u5171\u5065\u5eb7[63]\u7b49\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4e3a\u51b3\u7b56\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u7528\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u6570\u636e\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u6027\u80fd<\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u4f7f\u7528\u91cd\u53e0\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u5229\u7528\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e[64]\u3002\u5728\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60\u6267\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u3001\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u5f62\u6210\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4efb\u52a1[11, 65]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60\u5f80\u5f80\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7eb3\u5165\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4f30\u8ba1\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u6548\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f[66]\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f18\u5316\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5df2\u5c06\u65ad\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u591a\u81c2\u8001\u864e\u673a\u95ee\u9898[67]\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u5173\u6ce8[69, 70]\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd[68]\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6781\u5927\u7684\u5174\u8da3\uff1a\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u6539\u53d8\u8f93\u5165\u7279\u5f81\u65f6\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u7684\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u867d\u7136\u4e00\u4e9b\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u6270\u52a8\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u89e3\u91ca[71, 72]\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5229\u7528\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u81ea\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u4ee5\u4fdd\u7559\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u5747\u5300\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e\u65f6\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u5e38\u89c4[73]\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u548c\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u66f4\u7075\u6d3b\u548c\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u53d6\u957f\u8865\u77ed\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5de5\u4f5c\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u5173\u6ce8\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\uff09<\/span>\u800c\u975e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u878d\u5165\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u673a\u4f1a[74]\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u66f4\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u4ee3\u66ff\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u56de\u5f52\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u5229\u7528 LASSO \u56de\u5f52\u3001\u6838\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5[75, 76, 77]\uff0c\u5c06\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u9ad8\u7ef4\u6570\u636e\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6570\u636e\u57df\u3002\u4ece\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u63a8\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e5f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u53d7\u5230\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u96c6\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u77e9\u9635\u586b\u5145<\/span>\uff08matirix completion\uff09<\/span>\u65b9\u6cd5\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u4f30\u8ba1[78, 79]\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e94\u7528\u65b9\u5411\u524d\u9014\u5149\u660e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u7528\u6237\u76f8\u4e92\u5408\u4f5c\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u9700\u8981\u5728\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u51c6\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e3a\u4ece\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5b9e\u7528\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u601d\u60f3\u5728\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u5e94\u7528\u53ef\u4ee5\u6269\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u51fa\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u60f3\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u660e\u786e\u5730\u56f4\u7ed5\u7740\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u5982\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u6765\u5e2e\u52a9\u56de\u7b54\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u5df2\u7ecf\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u5b66\u754c\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4e3a\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u3001\u666e\u53ca\u63a8\u5e7f\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u5982\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u6765\u5e2e\u52a9\u56de\u7b54\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898<\/strong>\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u643a\u624b\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\u5c06\u4e3e\u529e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u300c<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausalAI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/a>\u300d\u3002\u672c\u671f\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7740\u529b\u4e8e\u5b9e\u64cd\u6027\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u6027\uff0c\u5c06\u5e26\u9886\u5927\u5bb6\u7cbe\u8bfb\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u5411\u4e24\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u53d7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u5165\u95e8\u6559\u6750\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
1. Pearl, Judea, Madelyn Glymour, and Nicholas P. Jewell. Causal inference in statistics: A primer. John Wiley & Sons, 2016.<\/span>\uff08\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\u8bd1\u7248\u300a\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u5165\u95e8\uff08\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7248\uff09\u300b\u5df2\u7531\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u51fa\u7248\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. Peters, Jonas, Dominik Janzing, and Bernhard Sch\u00f6lkopf. Elements of causal inference: foundations and learning algorithms. The MIT Press, 2017.<\/span><\/section>\n

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