{"id":25351,"date":"2021-04-07T22:42:49","date_gmt":"2021-04-07T14:42:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=25351"},"modified":"2021-04-07T22:42:49","modified_gmt":"2021-04-07T14:42:49","slug":"%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8e%e5%a4%9a%e5%b1%82%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e7%9a%84covid-19%e6%89%a9%e6%95%a3%e5%92%8c%e6%84%8f%e8%af%86%e4%bc%a0%e6%92%ad%e5%bb%ba%e6%a8%a1%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=25351","title":{"rendered":"\u57fa\u4e8e\u591a\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u7684COVID-19\u6269\u6563\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u4f20\u64ad\u5efa\u6a21\u7814\u7a76"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='wxsyncmain'>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" data-mpa-powered-by=\"yiban.io\">\n<section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: PingFangSC-light;font-size: 15px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 661px;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246);\">\n<section>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;width:100%;\"><img class=\"rich_pages\" data-backh=\"327\" data-backw=\"578\" data-ratio=\"0.5649895178197065\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"jpeg\" data-w=\"954\" style=\"width: 661px;box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/wxsync-2021-04-392d57861e1abd363e7cdd2b91af306b.jpeg\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\n<section style=\"width: 661px;\">\n<section style=\"padding-right: 3px;float: left;line-height: 1;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<section style=\"padding-left: 10px;display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;height: auto;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;line-height: 0;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"transform: translate3d(-13px, 0px, 0px);\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 25px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;border-style: solid solid none;border-width: 3px 3px 2px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(33, 166, 210) rgb(33, 166, 210) rgb(15, 76, 129);\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"transform: translate3d(-1px, 0px, 0px);\">\n<section style=\"text-align: justify;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5;\">\n<p><strong>\u5bfc\u8bed<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"transform: translate3d(-13px, 0px, 0px) rotateX(180deg);\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 24px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;border-style: solid solid none;border-width: 3px 3px 2px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(33, 166, 210) rgb(33, 166, 210) rgb(15, 76, 129);\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 4px;padding-left: 4px;clear: right;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;min-height: 4.5em !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;\">\n<section style=\"padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;font-size: 13px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\n<p style=\"clear: none;\"><strong style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;\"><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\"><strong style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5229\u7528\u53cc\u5c42\u8026\u5408\u7f51\u7edc\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u5174\u8d77\u3002\u4ee5\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u6c5f\u82cf\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u5e08\u6731\u9716\u6cb3\u535a\u58eb\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u4f55\u4e50\u5728\u300a\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u901a\u8baf\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5728\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;\">\n<section style=\"width: 661px;\">\n<section style=\"clear: both;line-height: 0;\">\n<section style=\"line-height: 0;width: 0px;\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: PingFangSC-light;font-size: 15px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;\">\n<section style=\"vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;text-align:center;width:100%;\"><img data-type=\"png\" data-ratio=\"0.07314814814814814\" data-w=\"1080\"  style=\"box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;visibility: visible !important;width: 677px !important;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/wxsync-2021-04-e16cd5b776e38a4f6806c73548bdc7d4.png\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.7;font-size: 11pt;font-family: PingFangSC-light;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;\">\n<p style=\"color: rgb(73, 73, 73);\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u901a\u8baf<strong style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\">&nbsp;| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\"><span style=\"color:#3f3f3f;\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u6240&nbsp;<\/span><strong style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\">| \u6765\u6e90<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: rgb(73, 73, 73);\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: rgb(73, 73, 73);\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"rich_pages\" data-ratio=\"0.4946808510638298\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"940\" height=\"362\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box !important;width: 677px !important;visibility: visible !important;\" width=\"940\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/wxsync-2021-04-d09f1dd282807b09ac3111a10b2d15c7.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<h1 style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<blockquote data-type=\"2\" data-url=\"\" data-author-name=\"\" data-content-utf8-length=\"132\" data-source-title=\"\" style=\"\">\n<section style=\"\">\n<section style=\"\">\n<p style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\"><span style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);text-align: left;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;\"><span style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\">Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic and awareness diffusion on multiplex networks<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);\"><span style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;\">\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;\"><span style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: left;\"><\/span><span style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 14px;text-align: left;\">https:\/\/ctp.itp.ac.cn\/EN\/10.1088\/1572-9494\/abd84a<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/h1>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u57282019\u5e74\u5e95\u5f00\u59cb\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u5e2d\u5377\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b89\u5168\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u5f97\u4ee5\u826f\u597d\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u67d3\u75c5\u4eba\u7fa4\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u501f\u4ee5\u9632\u75ab\u77e5\u8bc6\u5ba3\u4f20\u548c\u9694\u79bb\u7b49\u63aa\u65bd\u63a7\u5236\u75ab\u60c5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u8bae\u9898\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u4f20\u64ad\u673a\u7406\u6240\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c61\u89c1\u4e0d\u9c9c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e3b\u6d41\u6a21\u578b\u4f9d\u9760\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5efa\u7acb[1,2]\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5229\u7528\u53cc\u5c42\u8026\u5408\u7f51\u7edc\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u5174\u8d77[3,4,5]\u3002\u4ee5\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u6c5f\u82cf\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u5e08\u6731\u9716\u6cb3\u535a\u58eb\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u4f55\u4e50\u5728\u300a\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u901a\u8baf\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5728\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u75be\u75c5\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u4f1a\u5bf9\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u9632\u75ab\u610f\u8bc6\u7ed9\u4e2a\u4f53\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u4e0a\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5404\u5360\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u4e14\u4e24\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u8282\u70b9\u95f4\u6709\u7740\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8fde\u8fb9\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u9996\u5148\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u5c06\u4eba\u7fa4\u5728\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u5c42\u5206\u4e3a5\u4e2a\u8231\u5ba4[6]\uff1a\u6613\u611f\u8005(S)\u3001\u65e0\u75c7\u72b6\u611f\u67d3\u8005(A)\u3001\u5bc6\u5207\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005(C)\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u8005(I)\u548c\u6062\u590d\u8005(R)\u3002\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u5c42\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5206\u4e3a\u6709\u610f\u8bc6(W)\u548c\u65e0\u610f\u8bc6(U)\u4e24\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u4e24\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4f1a\u51f8\u663e\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u8005\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u88ab\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4e8e1\u7684\u8870\u9000\u7387\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u901a\u8fc7\u4eba\u7fa4\u8f6c\u6362\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6811\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u53cc\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0b\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u4f20\u64ad\u79bb\u6563\u9a6c\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u94fe<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">(MCMC)<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u53cc\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u719f\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u6790\u5176\u4f20\u64ad\u9608\u503c\uff0c\u6545\u4f5c\u8005\u521b\u65b0\u6027\u5730\u5728\u5f15\u5165\u591a\u4f20\u67d3\u8231\u5ba4\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4f20\u64ad\u9608\u503c\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u4f1a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6269\u6563\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0e\u5404\u611f\u67d3\u8231\u5ba4\u521d\u59cb\u4eba\u7fa4\u6570\u91cf\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u5448\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4e0e\u6cbb\u6108\u7387\u7b49\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u543b\u5408\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5e38\u89c4\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e24\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4f20\u64ad\u9608\u503c\u9020\u6210\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\">\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align:center;width:100%;\"><img data-ratio=\"0.5862516\" data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"771\"  style=\"box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;width: 483px;visibility: visible !important;height: 283px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/wxsync-2021-04-f7e728e4186b866e86abfea5250cc8b6.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\">\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 13px;\">\u56fe1 \u53cc\u5c42\u7f51\u7edcCOVID-19\u6269\u6563\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\">\n<section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u6587\u7ae0\u5bf9\u6982\u7387\u6811\u5229\u7528\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u6765\u68c0\u9a8cMCMC\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u6027\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u6709\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u76f8\u5408\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u81ea\u6211\u9694\u79bb\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u63a7\u5236\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4e3a\u4eca\u540e\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u51fa\u66f4\u5408\u7406\u3001\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e3a\u75be\u75c5\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u505a\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<section>\n<section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\">\n<section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\">\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(61, 170, 214);\">\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\">\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">1] Wu J T, Leung K and Leung G M 2020 Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study Lancet 395: 689\u201397<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">[2] Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, Bragazzi N L, Tang S Y, Xiao Y N and Wu J H 2020 Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions, J. Clin. Med. 9 462<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">[3] Granell C, Gomez S and Arenas A 2013 Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111: 128701<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">[4] Zheng C Y, Xia C Y, Guo Q T and Dehmer M 2018 Interplay between SIR-based disease spreading and awareness diffusion on multiplex networks, J. Parallel Distrib. Comput. 115: 20\u20138<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">[5] Xia C Y, Wang Z S, Zheng C Y, Guo Q T, Shi Y T, Dehmer M and Chen Z Q 2019 A new coupled diseaseawareness spreading model with mass media on multiplex networks, Inf. Sci. 471: 185\u2013200<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">[6] Sun T Z and Wang Y 2020 Modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Heilongjiang province, China Chaos Solitons Fractals 138: 109949<\/span><\/p>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(61, 170, 214);\">\u76f8\u5173\u6210\u679c\u53d1\u8868\u5728\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">Le He and Linhe Zhu 2021 Commun. Theor. Phys. 73 035002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(61, 170, 214);\">\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u4e4b\u5916\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7f51\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1572-9494\/abd84a<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">\u6b64\u6587\u88ab\u300a\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u901a\u8baf\u300b\u8bc4\u4e3a\u7f16\u8f91\u63a8\u8350\u6587\u7ae0(CTP Editor&#8217;s suggestion)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;justify-content: center;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;height: auto;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;border-bottom: 9px solid rgb(169, 215, 227);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-bottom: -15px;\">\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;color: rgb(12, 130, 169);font-size: 16px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 3px;\">\n<p><strong>\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<p><br style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: PingFangSC-light;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\"  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81ea<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">Nature\u3001Science<\/span>\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605\uff1a<\/span><br  \/><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;width: 677px;\"><img class=\"rich_pages\" data-ratio=\"0.3088962108731466\" data-s=\"300,640\" data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"1214\"  style=\"box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 677px !important;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/wxsync-2021-04-fdadfa689e4fd2c0d00404fdcd994125.png\"  \/><\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 8px;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 8px;\"><strong style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;text-align: center;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\"><strong style=\"text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><br  \/><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\">\n<li style=\"font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 5px 8px;text-align: left;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247501149&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=54ce07e3e3cf5cf0c5324c13bb6d5786&amp;chksm=e8979fd0dfe016c68fe3a587dcfb15b98888c1a1da0537ce3a37e7bb41e95d4b67e9d6bf20c9&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" data-linktype=\"2\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4fe1\u606f\u516c\u5f00\uff0c\u5206\u5757\u9694\u79bb\u2014\u2014\u57fa\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u80ba\u708e\u7f51\u7edc\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u578b<\/a><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 5px 8px;text-align: left;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247502304&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=fcbe53a177e034e279af08bda543daa1&amp;chksm=e897936ddfe01a7b867d96c02f67a5247d47dc79e79c6c97861e2dee9812f4d24c1f6a3153e2&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" data-linktype=\"2\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u57fa\u56e0\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u63ed\u793a\u5317\u7f8e\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u5dee\u5f02<\/a><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 5px 8px;text-align: left;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247502122&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=aa634135b9235d14af4097331fb56ed0&amp;chksm=e89793a7dfe01ab16a39bfcd8cca45d0ebe4bf034a6514ffff14cdbab4df61e2fb7227c25ddf&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" data-linktype=\"2\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nature\u7269\u7406\uff1a\u600e\u6837\u8ba9\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u904d\u5168\u7f51\uff1f\u7a81\u7834\u793e\u533a\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u76f8\u53d8\u70b9<\/a><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 5px 8px;text-align: left;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247530602&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c6f4c91fac30e91b177f896dab371166&amp;chksm=e89722e7dfe0abf1d943bcfe0ba9009898a4f4973d43bb19b18aad266201bf269c65bc80590d&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" data-linktype=\"2\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u89c6\u89d2\u4e0b\uff0c\u600e\u6837\u5e73\u8861\u9632\u75ab\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff1f| PNAS\u901f\u9012<\/a><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 5px 8px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247502752&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=4ceaf4f227a4f7065b3cd256a2022552&amp;chksm=e897912ddfe0183b570a12e6b40212e33b76a95c54abe6e10afe7069acb9f6236bd39ccf8cda&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" textvalue=\"\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" data-linktype=\"2\" hasload=\"1\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u52a0\u5165\u96c6\u667a\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u590d\u6742\uff01<\/a><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px 8px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px 8px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;text-align: left;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\"><strong style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-size: 15px;text-align: left;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangSC-light;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgb(12, 130, 169);\">\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5bfc\u8bed \u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5229\u7528\u53cc\u5c42\u8026\u5408\u7f51\u7edc\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\u5174\u8d77\u3002\u4ee5\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u6c5f\u82cf\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u5e08\u6731\u9716\u6cb3\u535a\u58eb\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u4f55\u4e50\u5728\u300a\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u901a\u8baf\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5728\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u3002 \u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u901a\u8baf&nbsp;| \u4f5c\u8005 \u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u6240&#038;nb&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25346,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25351"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25351\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/25346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25351"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=25351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}