{"id":26892,"date":"2021-06-09T22:24:50","date_gmt":"2021-06-09T14:24:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=26892"},"modified":"2021-06-09T22:24:50","modified_gmt":"2021-06-09T14:24:50","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e5%8f%8d%e4%ba%8b%e5%ae%9e-%e9%9b%86%e6%99%ba%e7%99%be%e7%a7%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=26892","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5 Counterfactual conditionals\uff08\u865a\u62df\u6761\u4ef6\u6216X\u6807\u8bb0\u7684\uff09\u662f\u7528\u6765\u8ba8\u8bba\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e3a\u771f\u7684\u7684 \u6761\u4ef6\u53e5 conditional sentence\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u5f7c\u5f97\u76f8\u4fe1\u9b3c\u9b42\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u4f1a\u5bb3\u6015\u6765\u5230\u8fd9\u91cc\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u53e5\u4e0e\u6307\u793a\u53e5\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u4e00\u822c\u53ea\u9650\u4e8e\u8ba8\u8bba\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u52a8\u8bcd\u7684\u8bed\u6cd5\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u865a\u62df\u65f6\u6001\u8bed\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u865a\u62df\u65f6\u6001\u8bed\u6cd5\u4e0e\u65f6\u6001\u548c\u8bed\u6001\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u8bed\u6cd5\u7ed3\u5408\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6307\u793a\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5\u548c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u522b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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  1. \n
    \u6307\u793a\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5<\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48Sally \u5c31\u5728\u91cc\u9762\uff08If it is<\/em> raining right now, then Sally is<\/em> inside\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  2. \n

    \u4e00\u822c\u8fc7\u53bb\u65f6\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e<\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48Sally\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u91cc\u9762\uff08If it was raining right now, then Sally would be inside\uff09\u3002<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n


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    \u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5\u5728\u5f62\u5f0f\u548c\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u90fd\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6307\u793a\u6761\u4ef6\u5728\u201c\u5982\u679c(if)\u201d\u548c \u201c\u90a3\u4e48(then)\u201d\u4e24\u4e2a\u4ece\u53e5\u4e2d\u90fd\u4f7f\u7528\u73b0\u5728\u65f6\u6001is\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4f20\u8fbe\u4e86\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a\u8bf4\u8bdd\u4eba\u5bf9\u662f\u5426\u4e0b\u96e8\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u4f8b\u53e5\u5728\u201c\u5982\u679c\u201d\u4ece\u53e5\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u865a\u62df\u65f6\u6001\u201cwas\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u201c then\u201d\u53e5\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u60c5\u6001\u201c would\u201d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4f20\u8fbe\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\uff0c\u8bf4\u8bdd\u4eba\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u5929\u5728\u4e0b\u96e8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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    \u82f1\u8bed\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u51e0\u79cd\u8bed\u6cd5\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u5176\u542b\u4e49\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u8303\u7574\u5185\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb\u5b8c\u6210\u65f6\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u53bb\u5b8c\u6210\u65f6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0e\u6307\u793a\u8bcd\u548c\u4e00\u822c\u5b8c\u6210\u65f6\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
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    1. \n
      \u8fc7\u53bb\u5b8c\u6210\u65f6\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u6628\u5929\u4e0b\u4e86\u96e8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48Sally\u5f53\u65f6\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u5728\u91cc\u9762(If it had been raining yesterday, then Sally would have been inside)\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

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      \u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5\u7684\u7528\u6cd5\u662f\u201cwere\u201d\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u975e\u73b0\u5b9e\uff08irrealis\uff09\u201d\u6216\u201c\u865a\u62df\uff08subjunctive\uff09\u201d\u3002<\/span>
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        \u975e\u73b0\u5b9e\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e<\/span><\/strong>\uff08Irrealis Counterfactual\uff09\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48Sally\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u91cc\u9762(If it were raining right now, then Sally would be inside)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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        \u8fc7\u53bb\u5b8c\u6210\u65f6\u548c\u975e\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u6761\u4ef6\u5012\u7f6e\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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          \u5982\u679c\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u8bdd\uff0cSally\u5c31\u4f1a\u5728\u91cc\u9762\uff08Were it raining, Sally would be inside\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        2. \n

          \u90a3\u65f6\u5982\u679c\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u8bdd\uff0cSally\u5c31\u4f1a\u5728\u91cc\u9762\uff08Had it rained, Sally would be inside\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n


          <\/h3>\n

          \u672f\u8bed<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
          \u201c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6761\u4ef6\uff08counterfactual conditional\uff09\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u672f\u8bed\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7528\u4f5c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5404\u7c7b\u53e5\u5b50\u7684\u603b\u79f0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5\u90fd\u8868\u8fbe\u4e0e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c Anderson \u6848\u4f8b\u201d\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u4f8b\u5b50\u5177\u6709\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5178\u578b\u8bed\u6cd5\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5e76\u4e0d\u8868\u660e\u5b83\u7684\u524d\u4ef6\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u5047\u7684\u6216\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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            Anderson\u6848\u4f8b<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u75c5\u4eba\u670d\u7528\u4e86\u7812\u971c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u957f\u51fa\u84dd\u6591\uff08If the patient had taken arsenic, he would have blue spots\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

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            \u8fd9\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5\u4e5f\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u79f0\u4e3a\u865a\u62df\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5\uff08subjunctive conditionals\uff09\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u540c\u6837\u88ab\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7528\u8bcd\u4e0d\u5f53<\/span>\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u8bed\u8a00\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u865a\u62df\u8bed\u6c14\uff08\u5982\u4e39\u9ea6\u8bed\u548c\u8377\u5170\u8bed)\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u6709\u4ece\u53e5\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4e5f\u4e0d\u628a\u5b83\u7528\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u53e5\uff08\u5982\u6cd5\u8bed\u3001\u65af\u74e6\u5e0c\u91cc\u8bed\u3001\u6240\u6709\u6709\u4ece\u53e5\u7684\u5370\u5ea6-\u96c5\u5229\u5b89\u8bed\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5c06\u865a\u62df\u8bed\u6c14\u7528\u4e8e\u6b64\u7c7b\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u624d\u5177\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u865a\u62df\u8bed\u6c14\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u865a\u62df\u6807\u8bb0\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u5145\u5206\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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            \u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff08counterfactual\uff09 and \u4ece\u53e5\uff08subjunctive\uff09\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u91cd\u65b0\u7528\u4e8e\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u7528\u9014\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u5176\u8bed\u6cd5\u7ed3\u6784\u5982\u4f55\uff0c”\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e”\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u8868\u8fbe\u4e0e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u610f\u601d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8bed<\/span>[14]<\/span>[8]<\/span>\u3002\u6309\u7167\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u5176\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u610f\u601d\u5982\u4f55\uff0c”\u4ece\u53e5”\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u6307\u5e26\u6709\u865a\u62df\u8fc7\u53bb\u6216\u975e\u73b0\u5b9e\u6807\u8bb0\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8bed\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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            \u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u51fa\u7528\u672f\u8bed X-Marked\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6765\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u4ee5\u6982\u62ec\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u8bed\u6240\u5e26\u6709\u7684\u989d\u5916\u6807\u8bb0\u3002\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u7684\u4eba\u628a\u6307\u793a\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u8bed\u79f0\u4e3aO-Marked\u6761\u4ef6\u8bed\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u7684o\u666e\u901a\u6807\u8bb0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

            \u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684 \u524d\u4ef6\uff08antecedent\uff09\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a “\u5982\u679c”\u4ece\u53e5\u6216\u6761\u4ef6\u5b50\u53e5\u3002\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a”\u90a3\u4e48”\u5b50\u53e5\u6216\u7ed3\u8bba\u5b50\u53e5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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            <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

            <\/section>\n
            \u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u6846\u67b6 Causal Models Framework\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\uff08structural equations\uff09Structural Equation Model\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u7a0b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u90fd\u88ab\u5206\u914d\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u503c\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u663e\u5f0f\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u7ed9\u5b9a\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u201c\u5982\u679cX\u662fX\uff0cY\u5c31\u4f1a\u662fY\uff08Y would be y had X been x\uff09\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53e5\u5b50 (\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0a\u4e3a X = x > Y = y )\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u65ad\u8a00\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u6570X = x\u53d6\u4ee3\u5f53\u524d\u51b3\u5b9a X\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e76\u6c42\u89e3\u53d8\u91cfY\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u89e3\u5c06\u662fY = y\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9a\u4e49\u5df2\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u4e0e\u53ef\u80fd\u4e16\u754c\u8bed\u4e49\u5b66\u7684\u516c\u7406\u517c\u5bb9\uff0c\u5e76\u6784\u6210\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u90fd\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u719f\u6089\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u5730\u63a8\u7406\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7531Judea Pearl(2000)\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f16\u7801\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7ec6\u7c92\u5ea6\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f4\u89c9\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u63d0\u8bae\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u96be\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

            <\/span><\/section>\n

            \u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u4e0b\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
            \u4ee4X\u548cY\u662f\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\u5408V\u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b50\u96c6\uff0c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bed\u53e5\u201c\uff08\u5728\u60c5\u51b5u\u4e0b\uff09\u5047\u5982X\u53d6x\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48Y\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u5230y\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b49\u4ef7\u5730\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u7b26\u53f7 Y<\/span>x<\/span>(u)<\/span> \u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6Y\u5bf9X\u53d6x\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

            <\/span><\/section>\n

            \u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u57fa\u672c\u5b9a\u7406<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

            \u7b49\u4ef7\u5b9a\u7406<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
            \u4ee4 Mx <\/span>\u8868\u793a\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578bM\u7684\u4fee\u6539\u7248\u672c\uff08\u5728\u5173\u4e8eX\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7528X=x\u6765\u4ee3\u66ff\uff09\uff0c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5177\u5907\u4e0b\u8ff0\u7b49\u4ef7\u6027\u8d28\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n