{"id":27031,"date":"2021-06-16T20:14:13","date_gmt":"2021-06-16T12:14:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27031"},"modified":"2021-06-16T20:14:13","modified_gmt":"2021-06-16T12:14:13","slug":"pnas%ef%bc%9a%e5%ba%94%e5%af%b9%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e6%80%a7%e5%a4%8d%e5%90%88%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%ef%bc%8c%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e6%96%b0%e6%96%b9%e6%a1%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27031","title":{"rendered":"PNAS\uff1a\u5e94\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u590d\u5408\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u9700\u8981\u65b0\u65b9\u6848"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A. Kruczkiewicz, J. Klopp, J. Fisher, S. Mason\u7b49<\/span> | \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u90ed\u745e\u4e1c<\/span> | <\/strong><\/span>\u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u8d75\u96e8\u4ead\u3001\u664f\u4e3d<\/span> | \u5ba1\u6821<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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1. \u51cf\u5c11\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u8d44\u91d1<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u707e\u5bb3\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u548c\u5371\u673a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6709\u5173\u3002\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u51cf\u5c11\u707e\u5bb3\u98ce\u9669\u529e\u516c\u5ba4<\/span>\uff08UNDRR\uff09<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e3a2015-2030\u4ed9\u53f0\u707e\u96be\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u8b66\u6846\u67b6<\/span>\uff08Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6267\u884c\u65b9\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u51cf\u5c11\u707e\u5bb3\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u4e3a\u591a\u79cd\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u53ef\u884c\u529e\u6cd5\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u4e0d\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u5168\u7403\u79c1\u8425\u6216\u516c\u5171\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5171\u540c\u52aa\u529b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u4e3a\u5982\u4f55\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5236\u5b9a\u4e86\u591a\u79cd\u5b9e\u65bd\u6307\u5357\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u6307\u5357\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u5bb6\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u751f\u7269\u5371\u5bb3\u548c\u7ea7\u8054\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08cascading events\uff09<\/span>\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u9664\u4e86 UNDRR\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u90fd\u65e8\u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u591a\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u4e0e\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u9879\u8bc4\u4f30\u662f\u591a\u90e8\u95e8\u521d\u6b65\u5feb\u901f\u8bc4\u4f30<\/span>\uff08Multi-sector Initial Rapid Assessment\uff0cMIRA [4]\uff09<\/span>\u3002MIRA \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8054\u5408\u9700\u6c42\u8bc4\u4f30\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u5f00\u5c55\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5bf9\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u6218\u7565\u5e94\u6025\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u8c03\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u751f\u547d\u548c\u751f\u8ba1\u6240\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5982\u540c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e00\u6837\uff0cUNDRR\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u51c6\u5219\u548c MIRA \u7b49\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5c40\u9650\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u9762\u4e34\u4e3b\u6743\u3001\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5b89\u6392\u51b2\u7a81\u7b49\u95ee\u9898<\/strong>\u3002\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u6709\u5173\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u51c6\u5219\u548c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u7ea2\u5341\u5b57\u4e0e\u7ea2\u65b0\u6708\u8054\u4f1a<\/span>\uff08International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies \uff09<\/span>\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u7cae\u98df\u8ba1\u5212\u7f72<\/span>\uff08WFP\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/span>\uff08WMO\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e8b\u52a1\u534f\u8c03\u5385<\/span>\uff08OCHA\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u56fa\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u6307\u5b9a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u51cf\u5c11\u7b56\u7565[6,7]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe2. \u707e\u96be<\/span><\/p>\n


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2. \u4ece\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u4ece\u5168\u5c40\u8fd8\u662f\u5c40\u90e8\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4ece\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u590d\u5408\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u57282020\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u5bf9\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u5c0f\u5c9b\u5c7f\u4e2d\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u7834\u574f\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u4f7f\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u5e94\u6025\u51c6\u5907\u548c\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0a\u9762\u4e34\u56f0\u96be\u30fc\u30fc\u4e13\u5bb6\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u98ce\u66b4\u5230\u6765\u4e4b\u65f6\u53ca\u65f6\u8d76\u5230\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5168\u7403\u548c\u533a\u57df\u822a\u8fd0\u548c\u8fd0\u8f93\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5728\u98ce\u66b4\u540e\u7acb\u5373\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u8d44\u6e90<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u4e2a\u4eba\u9632\u62a4\u88c5\u5907\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u3001\u9632\u62a4\u9762\u5177\uff09<\/span>\u6570\u91cf\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e73\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u6025\u4eba\u5458\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u5e94\u6025\u5904\u7406\u65f6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6062\u590d\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u52aa\u529b\u7ef4\u6301\u9694\u79bb\u9650\u5236[12,13]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u53bb\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u5728\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\u53d1\u751f\u4e865.3\u7ea7\u5730\u9707\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5730\u9707\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5f71\u54cd\u5bfc\u81f4\u8bb8\u591a\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53d7\u707e\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u907f\u5f00\u5efa\u7b51\u7269\u548c\u4eba\u7fa4\u6765\u5c3d\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u611f\u67d3\u65b0\u51a0\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u5bb6\u91cc\u9003\u5230\u4e86\u62e5\u6324\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u8857\u9053\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u9700\u8981\u907f\u514d\u5371\u9669\u5efa\u7b51\u7684\u574d\u584c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u707e\u5bb3\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u884c\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u9003\u79bb\u5bb6\u56ed\uff09<\/span>\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u589e\u52a0\u53e6\u4e00\u573a\u5371\u673a\u7684\u98ce\u9669<\/span>\uff08\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5c1a\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u662f\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u5dee\u5f02\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u63d0\u9192\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u4ed9\u53f0\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u5f0f\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5145\u5206\u89e3\u51b3\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u6216\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u516c\u6b63\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5bf9\u5f31\u52bf\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u76f4\u63a5\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u4f18\u5148\u5bf9\u7f3a\u5c11\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u6c11\u610f\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u793e\u533a\u906d\u53d7\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u516c\u6b63\u5fc5\u987b\u6210\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3001\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u9884\u671f\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u8fd8\u5fc5\u987b\u627e\u5230\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5411\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u516c\u4f17\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5ba3\u4f20\u6539\u8fdb\u5bf9\u590d\u5408\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027<\/strong>\u3002\u8981\u8ba9\u5927\u4f17\u652f\u6301\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u5e94\u6025\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5229\u5bb3\u6538\u5173\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u884c\u52a8\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u600e\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u51cf\u8f7b\u672a\u6765\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u67e5\u660e\u963b\u788d\u6539\u8fdb\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fdb\u7a0b\u548c\u56f4\u7ed5\u590d\u6742\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5176\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u6587\u5316\u8fd8\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u7d20[20]\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u5fc5\u987b\u8d77\u5230\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u653f\u5e9c\u5404\u7ea7\u51b3\u7b56\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u6001\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5371\u673a\u7ba1\u7406\u6218\u7565\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u9700\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u548c\u91cd\u65b0\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e94\u6025\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u89c4\u5219\u548c\u884c\u653f\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u80fd\u591f\u7075\u6d3b\u5730\u5c06\u591a\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u96c6\u6210\u5230\u8d44\u6e90\u90e8\u7f72\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u3002\u8981\u6210\u529f\u5730\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u7cbe\u7b80\u8de8\u7ec4\u7ec7\u534f\u4f5c\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u6d41\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u9f13\u52b1\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u548c\u591a\u5229\u76ca\u6538\u5173\u65b9\u5171\u540c\u53c2\u4e0e\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6587\u5316\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5236\u5b9a\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u89c4\u5212\u6218\u7565\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u590d\u5408\u707e\u5bb3\u53ca\u5176\u8fde\u5e26\u5f71\u54cd\u91c7\u7528\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u62ec\u5f15\u5165\u793e\u533a\u56e2\u4f53\u548c\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ec\u5f00\u6253\u7834\u56fa\u6709\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4f1a\u3002\u9884\u9632\u6027\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u63a7\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6700\u7d27\u6025\u7684\u4e8b\u9879\uff0c\u5176\u9700\u8981\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6cd5\u5f8b\u754c\u7684\u5171\u540c\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u534f\u4f5c\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5df2\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u7ef4\u548c\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u53d7\u91c7\u77ff\u3001\u73af\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u51b2\u7a81\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5730\u533a[22]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe4. \u591a\u65b9\u5408\u4f5c<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u9700\u8981\u65b0\u7684\u6709\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u7684\u3001\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u7b79\u8d44\u673a\u5236\u548c\u6218\u7565<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6218\u7565\u5e94\u5f53\u6fc0\u52b1\u548c\u52a0\u5f3a\u76ee\u524d\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u5177\u4f53\u4ece\u4e8b\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u673a\u6784<\/span>\uff08\u516c\u5171\u3001\u79c1\u8425\u3001\u6c11\u95f4\u548c\u5b66\u672f\u673a\u6784\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u590d\u5408\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u707e\u5bb3\u51c6\u5907\u65b9\u9762\u5f00\u5c55\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5f80\u5f80\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u5371\u5bb3\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u707e\u5bb3\uff0c\u5982\u6d2a\u6c34\u3001\u70ed\u6d6a\u548c\u706b\u5c71\u7070\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e8b\u60c5\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5168\u7403\u98ce\u9669\u878d\u8d44\u673a\u5236 <\/span>\uff08Global Risk Financing Facility\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u7ec4\u7ec7\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b3\u81f35\u7b14\u6700\u591a1500\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d60\u6b3e\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u9488\u5bf9\u51cf\u8f7b\u590d\u5408\u51b2\u51fb\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8d37\u6b3e\u4e1a\u52a1[24]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4ed6\u9700\u8981\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u9886\u57df\u5305\u62ec\uff1a1)\u5173\u4e8e\u590d\u5408\u707e\u5bb3\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u6838\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff1b2)\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u7ebf\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u7d27\u6025\u548c\/\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u6280\u672f\u63f4\u52a9\uff1b3)\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u63d0\u4f9b\u4ece\u4e8b\u957f\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u590d\u5408\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba9\u51b3\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u53c2\u4e0e\u5230\u7814\u7a76\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8ba9\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6210\u679c\u80fd\u591f\u6539\u5584\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u6b63\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u652f\u6301\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u53cc\u5411\u8fed\u4ee3\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u76f8\u4e92\u4fc3\u8fdb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4f46\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u6b63\u4e49\u548c\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u5173\u5207\u5e94\u7eb3\u5165\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6bcf\u4e00\u9879\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u53ca\u79cd\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u5371\u673a\u518d\u6b21\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u79cd\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u503e\u5411\u7684\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u4f7f\u5e94\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u8106\u5f31<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u73b0\u8c61\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u590d\u5408\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u6700\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u707e\u5bb3\u7684\u793e\u533a\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5df2\u7ecf\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8868\u660e\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u5408\u6548\u5e94\u4f7f\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u673a\u6784\u660e\u667a\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u89e3\u51b3\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fd9\u79cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u516c\u6b63\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4e0d\u5e73\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1. J. Zscheischler et al., Future climate risk from compound events. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 469\u2013477 (2018).<\/span><\/p>\n

2. D. Hardy et al., Social Vulnerability: Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change, Part 1 (USGCRP Social Science Coordinating Committee, Washington, DC, 2018).<\/span><\/p>\n

3. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Words into action: National risk assessment. <\/span>https:\/\/www.preventionweb.net\/files\/52828_nationaldisasterriskassessmentwiagu.pdf. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Inter-Agency Standing Committee, Multi-sector initial rapid assessment. <\/span>https:\/\/interagencystandingcommittee.org\/iasc-transformative-agenda\/documents-public\/multi-clustersector-initial-rapid-assessment-mira-manual. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. V. Metcalf, E. Marin, S. Pantuliano, Risk in humanitarian action: Towards a common approach. <\/span>https:\/\/odi.org\/en\/publications\/risk-in-humanitarian-action-towards-a-common-approach\/. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. World Meteorological Organization, Guidelines on multi\u2010hazard impact\u2010based forecast and warning services. <\/span>https:\/\/library.wmo.int\/doc_num.php?explnum_id=7901. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

7. F. Pichon, Anticipatory humanitarian action: What role for the CERF? <\/span>https:\/\/cerf.un.org\/sites\/default\/files\/resources\/ODI_Early_Action_Study.pdf. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

8. R. Maini, L. Clarke, K. Blanchard, V. Murray, The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and its indicators\u2014Where does health fit in? Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 8, 150\u2013155 (2017).<\/span><\/p>\n

9. United Nations OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data, Anticipatory action in Bangladesh before peak monsoon flooding. <\/span>https:\/\/centre.humdata.org\/anticipatory-action-in-bangladesh-before-peak-monsoon-flooding\/. Accessed 17 February 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

10. C. Gros et al., The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: Evidence from an intervention for vulnerable herders in Mongolia. Disasters, doi:10.1111\/disa.12467 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n

11. A. Gunia, This tiny nation has zero coronavirus cases. After a devastating cyclone, it\u2019s refusing foreign aid workers to keep it that way. Time, 17 April 2020. <\/span>https:\/\/time.com\/5820382\/coronavirus-cyclone-harold-vanuatu\/. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

12. International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies, Pacific Islands: Widespread damage reported as Cyclone Harold hammers Vanuatu and Fiji. <\/span>https:\/\/media.ifrc.org\/ifrc\/press-release\/pacific-islands-widespread-damage-reported-cyclone-harold-hammers-vanuatu-fiji\/. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

13. J. M. Shultz et al., Superimposed threats to population health from tropical cyclones in the prevaccine era of COVID-19. Lancet Planet. Health 4, e506\u2013e508 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n

14. S. Walker et al., Zagreb hit by earthquake while in coronavirus lockdown. The Guardian, 22 March 2020. <\/span>https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/22\/croatia-earthquake-causes-widespread-damage-zagreb. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

15. D. J. Steenbergen et al., COVID-19 restrictions amidst cyclones and volcanoes: A rapid assessment of early impacts on livelihoods and food security in coastal communities in Vanuatu. Mar. Policy 121, 104199 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n

16. G. Pescaroli, D. Alexander, Critical infrastructure, panarchies and the vulnerability paths of cascading disasters. Nat. Hazards 82, 175\u2013192 (2016).<\/span><\/p>\n

17. K. Jung, M. Song, Linking emergency management networks to disaster resilience: Bonding and bridging strategy in hierarchical or horizontal collaboration networks. Qual. Quant. 49, 1465\u20131483 (2015).<\/span><\/p>\n

18. A. Lukasiewicz, \u201cThe emerging imperative of disaster justice\u201d in Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice (Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, 2020), pp. 3\u201323.<\/span><\/p>\n

19. United States Congress, Letter to HHS re racial disparities in COVID response. <\/span>https:\/\/pressley.house.gov\/sites\/pressley.house.gov\/files\/2020.03.27%20Letter%20to%20HHS%20re%20racial%20disparities%20in%20COVID%20response.pdf. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

20. M. C. de Ruiter et al., Why we can no longer ignore consecutive disasters. Earth\u2019s Future 8, e2019EF001425 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n

21. J. C. Aerts et al., Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 193\u2013199 (2018).<\/span><\/p>\n

22. J. Fisher et al., Collaborative governance and conflict management: Lessons learned and good practices from a case study in the Amazon Basin. Soc. Nat. Resour. 33, 538\u2013553 (2019).<\/span><\/p>\n

23. We Act for Environmental Justice, Heat, health, equity. <\/span>https:\/\/www.weact.org\/campaigns\/heat-health-equity\/. Accessed 17 February 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

24. The World Bank Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance Program Crisis and Disaster Risk Finance, Short notes on COVID 19. <\/span>http:\/\/documents1.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/917061608185462156\/pdf\/Crisis-and-Disaster-Risk-Finance-Short-Notes-on-COVID-19.pdf. Accessed 28 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

25. T. S. Gaynor, M. E. Wilson, Social vulnerability and equity: The disproportionate impact of COVID\u201019. Public Adm. Rev. 80, 832\u2013838 (2020).<\/span><\/p>\n


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