{"id":27055,"date":"2021-06-18T19:49:40","date_gmt":"2021-06-18T11:49:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27055"},"modified":"2021-06-18T19:49:40","modified_gmt":"2021-06-18T11:49:40","slug":"%e4%b8%80%e6%96%87%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb%e5%a5%b3%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%9b%b4%e5%96%9c%e6%ac%a2%e4%b9%b0%e4%b9%b0%e4%b9%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27055","title":{"rendered":"\u4e00\u6587\u89e3\u8bfb\u5973\u6027\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u66f4\u559c\u6b22\u4e70\u4e70\u4e70"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Gender roles produce divergent economic expectations<\/span><\/p>\n

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https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/118\/21\/e2008534118<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/section>\n


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1. \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5973\u6027\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e70\u4e70\u4e70\uff1f<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6839\u636e\u8d39\u96ea\u7b49\u5f0f\u53ef\u77e5\uff1a1+\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387=\uff081+\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\uff09* \uff081+\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387=\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387+\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u3002\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9a\u503c\uff0c\u5f53\u5973\u6027\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0e\u9884\u671f\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0e\u9884\u671f\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d8a\u4f4e\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4f4e\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5973\u6027\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u628a\u94b1\u5b58\u8fdb\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e70\u4e70\u4e70\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6512\u94b1\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u5973\u6027\u5728\u4e00\u751f\u4e2d\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u79ef\u7d2f\u504f\u5c11\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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2. \u4e0d\u540c\u6027\u522b\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5dee\u5f02<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u56fe2 \u6027\u522b\u548c\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe3 \u5973\u6027\u662f\u5426\u53c2\u4e0e\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u548c\u5973\u6027\u662f\u5426\u5de5\u4f5c\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5206\u522b\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u627f\u62c5\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u5973\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u627f\u62c5\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u5973\u6027\u3001\u804c\u573a\u5973\u6027\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e3b\u5987\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5dee\u5f02<\/span>\uff08\u6837\u672c\u8f83\u5c0f\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u56fe3\u6240\u793a\u3002\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u627f\u62c5\u4efb\u4f55\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u5973\u6027\u4e0e\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u7684\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173<\/strong>\uff0c\u627f\u62c5\u4e00\u4e9b\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u5973\u6027\u4e0e\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u5173<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u56fe3\uff0c1-3\u5217\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\u5e76\u4e14\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e3b\u5987\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u9ad8\u4e8e\u804c\u573a\u4e0a\u5973\u6027\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f<\/strong>\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u663e\u8457\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u56fe3\uff0c4-6\u5217\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u6027\u522b\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u5929\u751f\u7684\u6027\u522b\u7279\u5f81\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6027\u522b\u89d2\u8272\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6027\u522b\u89d2\u8272\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u5973\u6027\u662f\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e2d\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u627f\u62c5\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u6027\u522b\u89d2\u8272<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u6027\u522b\u671f\u671b\u5dee\u5f02<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\uff081\uff09\u5728\u8003\u8651\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5973\u6027\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u95ee\u5377\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4f1a\u8be2\u95ee\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u6e90<\/span>\uff08\u4f20\u7edf\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u8d2d\u7269\u4f53\u9a8c\u3001\u5bb6\u5ead\u3001\u670b\u53cb\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\uff09<\/span>\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u3002\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u5bf9\u63d0\u53ca\u8d27\u7269\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8be2\u95ee\u8d27\u7269\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\u65f6\uff0c\u6027\u522b\u5dee\u5f02\u660e\u663e\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5982\u56fe4\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n

\u56fe4 \u7537\u6027\u548c\u5973\u6027\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u9884\u671f\u65f6\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u8d27\u7269<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u725b\u5976\u3001\u6c7d\u6cb9\u3001\u9e21\u86cb\u3001\u9762\u5305\u3001\u5496\u5561\u7b49\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4fe1\u606f\u666e\u904d\u88ab\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4e14\u5973\u6027\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u9891\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7537\u6027\uff0c\u6c7d\u6cb9\u9664\u5916\uff1b\u5564\u9152\u88ab\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u9891\u7387\u8f83\u5c11\uff0c\u4e14\u591a\u4e3a\u7537\u6027<\/strong>\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u7537\u6027\u5973\u6027\u6d88\u8d39\u4e60\u60ef\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u8ba4\u77e5\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff082\uff09\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u975e\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\uff0c\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u4e14\u6b63\u5411\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u8bb0\u4f4f\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe5 \u5bb6\u5ead\u5185\u90e8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u611f\u77e5\u5dee\u5f02<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u8005\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u7537\u6027\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\u548c\u7537\u6027\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5982\u56fe5\u6240\u793a\u3002\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u7537\u6027\u4e0d\u53c2\u4e0e\u5bb6\u5ead\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u65f6\uff0c\u5973\u6027\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6c34\u5e73\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7537\u6027<\/strong>\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u5bf9\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u662f\u5f15\u8d77\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u8ba4\u77e5\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5b58\u5728\u6027\u522b\u9884\u671f\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5973\u6027\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u65f6\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4eba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u8bb0\u4f4f\u6b63\u5411\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u7406\u8bba[2-8]\uff0c\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u7269\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff083\uff09\u4e0d\u8bba\u4f55\u79cd\u6027\u522b\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u5dee\u5f02\u90fd\u80fd\u6620\u5c04\u51fa\u5176\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u671f\u671b\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n

\u56fe6 \u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e0e\u975e\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u6027\u522b\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0e\u671f\u671b\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u6027\u522b\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u6027\u522b\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0e\u671f\u671b\u5173\u7cfb\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5982\u56fe6\u6240\u793a\u3002\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u975e\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8bba\u6027\u522b\uff0c\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u8ba4\u77e5\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0e\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u901a\u8d27\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u9884\u671f\u90fd\u51e0\u4e4e\u91cd\u5408<\/strong>\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u80fd\u591f\u6620\u5c04\u51fa\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6027\u522b\u89d2\u8272\u5dee\u5f02\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5973\u6027\u5728\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u65f6\uff0c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u65e5\u7528\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\uff0c\u4eba\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u5370\u8c61\u66f4\u52a0\u6df1\u523b\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u8981\u7d20\u5171\u540c\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u5973\u6027\u4f1a\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5f3a\u70c8\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5bf9\u76ee\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u5973\u6027\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u4f1a\u76f8\u5bf9\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f71\u54cd\u5979\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0e\u8d22\u5bcc\u79ef\u7d2f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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4. \u6027\u522b\u671f\u671b\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/p>\n

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1. A. Cavallo, G. Cruces, R. Perez-Truglia, Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments. Am. Econ. J. Macroecon. 9, 1\u201335(2017).<\/span><\/p>\n

2. W. Bruine de Bruin et al., Expectations of inflation: The role of demographic variables, expectation formation, and financial literacy. J. Consum. Aff. 44, 381\u2013402(2010).<\/span><\/p>\n

3. P. Vlasenko, S. R. Cunningham. Capturing the inflation that people experience: The everyday price index vs. the consumer price index. American Institute for Economic Research Working Paper, (004). <\/span>https:\/\/www.aier.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/WP004-EPI-Polina-Vlasenko-PV.pdf. Accessed 10 May 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

4.H. W. Br achinger, A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany. J. Econ. Psychol. 29, 433\u2013457 (2008).<\/span><\/p>\n

5. R. Ranyard, F. Del Missier, N. Bonini, D. Duxbury, B. Summers, Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework. J. Econ. Psychol. 29, 378\u2013400 (2008).<\/span><\/p>\n

6. M. Fluch et al. Perceived inflation in Austria\u2013extent, explanations, effects. Monetary Pol. Econ., 22\u201347, 2005.<\/span><\/p>\n

7. J. M. Bates, A. Gabor, Price perception in creeping inflation: Report on an enquiry. J.Econ. Psychol. 7, 291\u2013314 (1986).<\/span><\/p>\n

8. F. D\u2019Acunto, U. Malmendier, J. Ospina, M. Weber. Exposure to grocery prices and inflation expectations. J. Pol. Econ., 10.1086\/713192 (2021).<\/span><\/p>\n


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