{"id":27229,"date":"2021-06-25T21:25:23","date_gmt":"2021-06-25T13:25:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27229"},"modified":"2021-06-25T21:25:23","modified_gmt":"2021-06-25T13:25:23","slug":"%e5%b8%8c%e6%9c%9b%e7%90%86%e6%9f%a5%e6%a3%ae%e8%83%bd%e5%a4%9f%e7%9f%a5%e9%81%93%ef%bc%8c%e4%bb%96%e7%94%9f%e5%89%8d%e7%9a%84%e6%a2%a6%e6%83%b3%e6%88%90%e7%9c%9f%e4%ba%86%e4%b8%a8%e9%99%88%e5%85%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27229","title":{"rendered":"\u5e0c\u671b\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u80fd\u591f\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u4ed6\u751f\u524d\u7684\u68a6\u60f3\u6210\u771f\u4e86\u4e28\u9648\u5173\u8363"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u8bb8\u591a\u6c11\u95f4\u8c1a\u8bed\uff0c\u5982\u201c\u5929\u4e0a\u74e6\u7247\u4e91\uff0c\u5730\u4e0a\u6652\u6b7b\u4eba\u201d\u3001\u201c\u7a7a\u4e2d\u9c7c\u9cde\u5929\uff0c\u4e0d\u96e8\u4e5f\u98ce\u98a0\u201d\u4e4b\u7c7b\u3002\u636e\u8bf4\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6c11\u8c23\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u516c\u5143\u524d\u4e09\u767e\u591a\u5e74\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u8bb0\u8f7d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5f20\u5c0f\u8303\u56f4\u5929\u6c14\u56fe\u51fa\u73b0\u57281820\u5e74\u3002\u5f53\u5e74\u5fb7\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e03\u5170\u5fb7\u65af<\/span>\uff08Heinrich W. Brandes\uff09<\/span>\u6839\u636e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6c14\u8c61\u89c2\u6d4b\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u5c06\u5404\u5730\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u6c14\u538b\u548c\u98ce\u51b5\u7b49\u6570\u636e\u586b\u5199\u5728\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7ed8\u5236\u6210\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u5f20\u4f9b\u4e8b\u540e\u4f5c\u8bb0\u5f55\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u7528\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1844\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u540d\u753b\u5bb6\u83ab\u5c14\u65af<\/span>\uff08Samuel F. B. Morse\uff09<\/span>\u51fa\u4e8e\u597d\u5947\u5fc3\u800c\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u6709\u7ebf\u7535\u62a5\uff0c\u4e3a\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u6c14\u8c61\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u4f20\u9001\u548c\u6c47\u96c6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\u30021851\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u683c\u83b1\u820d<\/span>\uff08James W. L. Glaisher\uff09<\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u7535\u62a5\u6280\u672f\u548c\u6c14\u8c61\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u535a\u89c8\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4ed6\u7ed8\u753b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00\u5f20\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b9e\u65f6\u7684\u5730\u9762\u5929\u6c14\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8e\u6570\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f5c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u632a\u5a01\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u76ae\u53f6\u514b\u5c3c\u65af<\/span>\uff08Vilhelm F. K. Bjerknes\uff0c1862-1951\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ed6\u9996\u5148\u5efa\u8bae\u628a\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u95ee\u9898\u63cf\u8ff0\u6210\u5927\u6c14\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u52a8\u529b\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u7684\u521d\u503c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u76ee\u524d\u67d0\u65f6\u523b\u5b9e\u6d4b\u7684\u6c14\u8c61\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6c42\u89e3\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u5c06\u6765\u67d0\u65f6\u523b\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u6c42\u51fa\u89e3\u6790\u89e3\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u7528\u6570\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u7a0b\u6c42\u89e3\u7136\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u5373\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u8def\u6613\u65af\u00b7\u7406\u67e5\u68ee<\/span>\uff08Lewis Fry Richardson\uff0c1881\u5e7410\u670811\u65e5\u2013 1953\u5e749\u670830\u65e5\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u82f1\u683c\u5170 Newcastle \u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u8d35\u683c\u4f1a<\/span>\uff08Quakers\uff09<\/span>\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u6bd5\u751f\u662f\u4e2a\u8654\u8bda\u6559\u5f92\u3002\u4ed622\u5c81\u4ece\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66 King\u2019s College \u6bd5\u4e1a\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7269\u7406\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u5f53\u6c14\u8c61\u5458\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u5728\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u5c5e\u4e0b\u7684 Eskdalemuir \u5929\u6587\u53f0\u4efb\u804c\u53f0\u957f\u3002\u7ea640\u5c81\u65f6\u8d77\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728 Westminster Training College \u5de5\u4f5c\u4e86\u4e5d\u5e74\uff0c\u4ece\u7269\u7406\u8bb2\u5e08\u664b\u5347\u5230\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u671f\u95f4\u4ed647\u5c81\u65f6\u4ece\u4f26\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u53d6\u5f97\u6570\u5b66\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728 University of the West of Scotland \u7684 Paisley \u5206\u6821\u5f53\u4e86\u5341\u4e00\u5e74\u6821\u957f\u76f4\u81f3\u9000\u4f11\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1916-1919\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5728\u6cd5\u56fd\u53c2\u52a0\u4e86\u7531\u8d35\u683c\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u53cb\u8c0a\u6551\u62a4\u8f66\u961f<\/span>\uff08Friends’ Ambulance Unit\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u627f\u62c5\u5e94\u6025\u6551\u63f4\u7684\u4e49\u52a1\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u4ed6\u5229\u7528\u5de5\u4f59\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4ed6\u6539\u8fdb\u4e86\u632a\u5a01\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u76ae\u53f6\u514b\u5c3c\u65af\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u7a7a\u95f4\u4f5c\u7f51\u683c\u5256\u5206\u7136\u540e\u5e94\u7528\u6709\u9650\u5dee\u5206\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u6c42\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u89e3\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u8fed\u4ee3<\/span>\uff08Richardson Iteration\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5916\u63a8<\/span>\uff08Richardson extrapolation\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u8ba1\u7b97\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u4ed6\u901a\u8fc7\u624b\u7b97\u7528\u540e\u6765\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u6570\u636e\u8bd5\u56fe\u63a8\u6f14\u51fa1910\u5e745\u670820\u65e5\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u51b5\u3002\u4ed6\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u5f53\u5929\u65e9\u4e0a7\u70b9\u91c7\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7528\u6765\u8ba1\u7b976\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u540e\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4f55\u5462\uff1fUniversity College Dublin \u7684\u8363\u4f11\u6559\u6388\u3001\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u6797\u5947<\/span>\uff08Peter Lynch\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u4ed62006\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u8bde\u751f\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u5e74\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u620f\u5267\u6027\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4ed6\u7b97\u51fa6\u5c0f\u65f6\u5185\u6709\u9ad8\u8fbe145\u767e\u5e15\u7684\u6c14\u538b\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u8bb0\u5f55\u8868\u660e\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u6c14\u538b\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6797\u5947\u6307\u51fa\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u53ea\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u505a\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u5904\u7406\u4ee5\u6392\u9664\u975e\u7269\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u6c14\u538b\u503c\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6797\u5947\u540e\u6765\u9a8c\u7b97\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5047\u82e5\u5f53\u5e74\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u505a\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u5904\u7406\u4ee5\u53bb\u6389\u5404\u79cd\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u9884\u62a5\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u8fd8\u662f\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u3002\u6797\u5947\u8bc4\u8bba\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4ed6\u5f53\u65f6\u6b63\u5728\u6551\u62a4\u8f66\u961f\u505a\u4e49\u5de5\uff0c\u5728\u6551\u62a4\u4f24\u75c5\u5458\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u95f4\u9699\u4e2d\u7528\u7eb8\u548c\u7b14\u505a\u624b\u7b97\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4f1a\u60ca\u53f9\u4ed6\u7684\u6210\u7ee9\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u975e\u51e1\u3002\u6309\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u56de\u5fc6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u73af\u5883\u7684\u786e\u7b80\u964b\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u7684\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u653e\u6709\u5e72\u8349\u7684\u5bd2\u51b7\u6ce5\u623f\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7684\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u5730\u56fe\u624b\u7a3f<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5f53\u5e74\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6c14\u9981\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u575a\u6301\u5e76\u4e0d\u65ad\u52aa\u529b\u30021922 \u5e74\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u5f53\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u4e13\u8457\u300a\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u503c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u5929\u6c14\u300b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u751f\u52a8\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4ed6\u5173\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u5de5\u573a\u201d\u7684\u5947\u601d\u5999\u60f3\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8bbe\u60f3\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5267\u9662\u7684\u7403\u5f62\u5927\u5385\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u6709\u821e\u53f0\u548c\u4e50\u6c60\uff0c\u5468\u8fb9\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u5ea7\u4f4d\u300264000\u4e2a\u8ba1\u7b97\u5458\u5728\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u5ea7\u4f4d\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u7740\u7403\u5f62\u5899\u58c1\u6302\u8d77\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5730\u56fe\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u53bb\u8ba1\u7b97\u81ea\u5df1\u5ea7\u4f4d\u6240\u5904\u5730\u56fe\u5bf9\u5e94\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8ba1\u7b97\u5458\u53ea\u8d1f\u8d23\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u7a0b\u6216\u8005\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u540d\u7ba1\u7406\u5458\u8d1f\u8d23\u534f\u8c03\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f83\u5927\u533a\u57df\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7403\u5f62\u5899\u58c1\u4e0a\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u8896\u73cd\u5c4f\u5e55\uff0c\u5404\u81ea\u663e\u793a\u5373\u65f6\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f9b\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5458\u8bfb\u53d6\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u5728\u5927\u5385\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7ad6\u7acb\u6709\u4e00\u6839\u67f1\u5b50\uff0c\u9876\u8d77\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u8ba9\u603b\u6307\u6325\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u51e0\u540d\u52a9\u7406\u5750\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u603b\u6307\u6325\u7684\u804c\u8d23\u662f\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5730\u533a\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5458\u4fdd\u6301\u540c\u6b65\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u52a9\u7406\u4eec\u5219\u4ee5\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6c47\u96c6\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u53d1\u9001\u5230\u5927\u5385\u65c1\u8fb9\u7684\u9694\u97f3\u5ba4\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7ed3\u679c\u88ab\u7f16\u7801\u7136\u540e\u53d1\u9001\u5230\u5404\u4e2a\u65e0\u7ebf\u7535\u6536\u53d1\u7ad9\uff0c\u518d\u5206\u522b\u5411\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u8fdb\u884c\u5e7f\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5feb\u901f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u66f4\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u8054\u624b\u5408\u4f5c\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u5c40\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5148\u4f8b\u3002\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u662f\u8d85\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7684\u201c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u5de5\u573a\u201d\u8bbe\u60f3\uff081922\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5728\u300a\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u503c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u5929\u6c14\u300b \u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5927\u6c14\u5c42\u91cc\u7684\u6c14\u6d41\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5927\u6c14\u6e4d\u6d41\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e66\u4e2d\u8fd8\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u73b0\u8c61\u5b66\u201d\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u63cf\u8ff0\u591a\u79cd\u6df7\u5408\u6d41\u4f53<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u6c14\u4f53\u548c\u6db2\u4f53\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u591a\u5b54\u4ecb\u8d28\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u628a\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7528\u4e8e\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u3002\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u5728\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u79cd\u6539\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u77f3\u6cb9\u5de5\u7a0b\u3001\u73af\u5883\u5de5\u7a0b\u3001\u6c34\u6587\u5b66\u548c\u571f\u58e4\u5b66\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6bcb\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u7535\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7684\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u8bbe\u60f3\u662f\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u66fe\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u7528\u624b\u7b97\u53bb\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u67656\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\u540e\u7684\u5929\u6c14\uff0c\u5176\u6570\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\u81f3\u5c11\u9700\u89816\u4e2a\u661f\u671f\u7684\u8fd0\u7b97\u624d\u53ef\u671b\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u591a\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u5230\u4e861946\u5e74\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u53f0\u53ef\u7f16\u7a0b\u901a\u7528\u7535\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a ENIAC \u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66<\/span>\uff08UPenn\uff09<\/span>\u8bde\u751f\u30021950\u5e74\uff0c\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u9ad8\u7b49\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc<\/span>\uff08John von Neumann\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u67e5\u5c3c<\/span>\uff08Jule Charney\uff09<\/span>\u53ca\u83f2\u5c14\u6258\u592b<\/span>\uff08Agnar Fj\u00f6rtoff\uff09<\/span>\u7528 ENIAC \u6765\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u300aTellus\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u9898\u4e3a\u201c\u6b63\u538b\u6da1\u5ea6\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u6570\u503c\u79ef\u5206\u201d\u4e00\u6587\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7528\u8fd9\u53f0\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u82b1\u8d39\u4e86\u7ea624\u5c0f\u65f6\u4fbf\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u63d0\u524d24\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u5f53\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u4ece\u67e5\u5c3c\u90a3\u91cc\u6536\u5230\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5f71\u5370\u672c\u65f6\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u5174\u594b\u5730\u56de\u4e86\u795d\u8d3a\u4fe1\uff0c\u79f0\u8d5e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7528\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4f5c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u6210\u529f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u8fdb\u6b65\u201d\u30021952\u5e74\uff0c\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u548c\u67e5\u5c3c\u7b49\u4eba\u8bf4\u670d\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7a7a\u519b\u548c\u6d77\u519b\u4e24\u4e2a\u6c14\u8c61\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u8054\u624b\u5728\u9a6c\u91cc\u5170\u5dde\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u673a\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1954\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fdBBC\u7535\u53f0\u5411\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5e7f\u64ad\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u30021955\u5e74\uff0c\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u548c\u67e5\u5c3c\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\u7684\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u673a\u6784\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u591a\u4e2a\u7535\u53f0\u5728\u5e7f\u64ad\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u3002\u4ece\u6b64\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7684\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6280\u672f\u5728\u5168\u7403\u6b63\u5f0f\u542f\u822a\u3002\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u548c\u536b\u661f\u6570\u636e\u7684\u914d\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u9884\u62a5\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u548c\u5b9e\u65f6\u6027\u4e0d\u65ad\u83b7\u5f97\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u8be5\u6280\u672f\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u6cbf\u7528\u81f3\u4eca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u57281953\u5e74\u4fbf\u53bb\u4e16\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u751f\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u6765\u5f97\u53ca\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u5929\u3002\u5f53\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5728\u4e0d\u8fdc\u7684\u5c06\u6765\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u83b7\u53d6\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u53ef\u4ee5\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u4e0b\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u80fd\u591f\u8d85\u8fc7\u5929\u6c14\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e2a\u68a6\u60f3\u3002\u201d\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u80fd\u591f\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u68a6\u60f3\u6210\u771f\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u548c\u5e73\u4e3b\u4e49\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u9664\u4e86\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5728\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u7269\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u8457\u540d\u7684 Richardson\u2019s  t3<\/span><\/sup><\/span>-law \u548c 4\/3-law\u3002\u6e4d\u6d41\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u6709\u4ee5\u4ed6\u547d\u540d\u7684 Richardson-Richards \u65b9\u7a0b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u65e0\u91cf\u7eb2\u5e38\u6570 Richardson Number\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u9879\u6210\u679c\u503c\u5f97\u63d0\u53ca\u30021912\u5e744\u670815\u65e5\u6cf0\u5766\u5c3c\u514b\u53f7\u5de8\u578b\u6e38\u8f6e\u6c89\u6ca1\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u6ce8\u518c\u4e86\u4f7f\u7528\u7a7a\u6c14\u4e2d\u4f20\u9012\u7684\u58f0\u6ce2\u8fdb\u884c\u56de\u58f0\u5b9a\u4f4d\u4ee5\u63a2\u6d4b\u6d77\u6d6e\u51b0\u5c71\u7684\u4e13\u5229\u3002\u2f00\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u53c8\u6ce8\u518c\u4e86\u5728\u6c34\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u56de\u58f0\u5b9a\u4f4d\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e13\u5229\u3002\u540e\u6765\u628a\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u60f3\u53d8\u6210\u5b9e\u7528\u7684\u662f1915\u5e74\u6cd5\u56fd\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u6717\u4e4b\u4e07<\/span>\uff08Paul Langevin\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u4fc4\u56fd\u7535\u6c14\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u5947\u6d1b\u592b\u65af\u57fa<\/span>\uff08Constantin Chilowski\uff09<\/span>\u5408\u4f5c\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u58f0\u7eb3\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e2d\u7528\u6765\u63a2\u6d4b\u519b\u4e8b\u6f5c\u8247\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1926\u5e74\uff0c45\u5c81\u7684\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u628a\u6570\u5b66\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u548c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u6770\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u201d\u88ab\u9074\u9009\u4e3a\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u5b66\u4f1a\u9662\u58eb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\uff0c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u80fd\u591f\u628a\u6570\u5b66\u7528\u5230\u6240\u6709\u4f60\u80fd\u60f3\u5f97\u51fa\u6765\u751a\u81f3\u60f3\u4e0d\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u53bb\u3002\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u662f\u4e2a\u5e94\u7528\u7269\u7406\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u540e\u534a\u751f\u628a\u6570\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u6280\u80fd\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u8df5\u884c\u81ea\u5df1\u5fc3\u4e2d\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u4e3b\u4e49\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u63cf\u8ff0\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u627e\u51fa\u907f\u514d\u548c\u7ed3\u675f\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u53ca\u5fc3\u7406\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u75db\u82e6\u3001\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u618e\u6068\u7b49\u60c5\u611f\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5e76\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u91cf\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3b\u8981\u53d1\u8868\u57281904\u5e74\u521b\u520a\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u65d7\u8230\u6742\u5fd7 British Journal of Psychology<\/em>\u3002\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u91cc\uff0c\u4ed6\u548c\u83b1\u7279<\/span>\uff08Quincy Wright\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u7d22\u7f57\u91d1<\/span>\uff08Pitirim Sorokin\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u4f2f\u4e01<\/span>\uff08Kenneth Boulding\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u62c9\u5e15\u6ce2\u7279<\/span>\uff08Anatol Rapoport\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u79d1\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Adam Curle\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\u4eba\u2f00\u8d77\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u519b\u5907\u7ade\u8d5b\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u8005\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u5b9a\u6027\u5b9a\u91cf\u548c\u6570\u7406\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u7814\u7a76\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u8d77\u56e0\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1935\u5e74\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5728\u300aNature\u300b\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u7528\u4ed6\u7684\u519b\u5907\u7ade\u8d5b\u6a21\u578b\u8bf4\u660e\u5176\u6570\u5b66\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u524d\u5915\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u8fd8\u5efa\u8bae\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u8c03\u6574\u5bf9\u5916\u653f\u7b56\u8ba9\u5bf9\u6297\u7cfb\u7edf\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1940\u5e74\uff0c59\u5c81\u7684\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u6821\u957f\u4efb\u671f\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u4ed6\u540c\u65f6\u63a5\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u6559\u6388\u804c\u4f4d\u9080\u8bf7\u3002\u51e0\u7ecf\u601d\u8003\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8270\u96be\u7684\u8c22\u7edd\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5e76\u4ece\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u9000\u4f11\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5168\u529b\u4ee5\u8d74\u53bb\u63a8\u8fdb\u4ed6\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4ece\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4f59\u751f\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u4e1a\u4f59\u79d1\u7814\u4eba\u5458\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1941\u5e74\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5728\u300aNature\u300b\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u7fa4\u4f53\u8fc1\u79fb\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u77ed\u6587\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u591a\u7684\u540e\u7eed\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1949\u5e74\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u4e13\u8457\u300a\u519b\u5907\u4e0e\u52a8\u8361\u300b\u5e76\u7559\u4e0b\u4e00\u672c\u624b\u7a3f\u300a\u81f4\u547d\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u300b<\/span>\uff081960\u5e74\u7531\u4ed6\u7684\u513f\u5b50 Stephen \u6574\u7406\u51fa\u7248\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7528\u6570\u7406\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u5206\u6790\u6218\u4e89\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u30021940\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u521d\u9732\u5934\u89d2\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5e94\u8be5\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u3002\u90a3\u65f6\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u5b97\u6559\u548c\u8bed\u8a00\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5728\u300a\u81f4\u547d\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u300b\u7684\u524d\u8a00\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u73b0\u4eca\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7cbe\u5f69\u548c\u5145\u6ee1\u777f\u667a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u90fd\u672a\u80fd\u5f97\u51fa\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u6211\u6709\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u68c0\u9a8c\u51e0\u79cd\u8868\u8ff0\uff0c\u4ee5\u671f\u5f97\u5230\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u201d\u56e0\u4e3a\u91c7\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u6574\u7406\u4e86\u4ece1815\u5e74\u52301945\u5e74\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ed6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e86\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u4f24\u4ea1\u670d\u4ece\u5e42\u5f8b\uff0c\u5373\u4f24\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u4e0d\u591a\u7684\u6218\u5f79\u6570\u76ee\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u4f24\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u4f17\u591a\u7684\u6218\u5f79\u6570\u76ee\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f8b\u59821935\u5e74\u7684\u591a\u6b21\u6ee1\u6d32\u91cc\u571f\u532a\u88ad\u51fb\u548c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5e2e\u6d3e\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u5176\u53d1\u751f\u6b21\u6570\u548c\u4f24\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4e5f\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e42\u5f8b\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u4e8b\u524d\u4e0d\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u4e0d\u80fd\u7ed9\u51fa\u4f24\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6218\u5f79\u4e2d\u7684\u4f24\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u672c\u8eab\u7b26\u5408\u6cca\u677e\u5206\u4f48\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1951\u5e74\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5728\u300aNature\u300b\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u8457\u540d\u6587\u7ae0\u201cCould an arms-race end without fighting?\u201d\uff0c\u4ee5\u4ed6\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u519b\u5907\u7ade\u8d5b\u662f\u5426\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u5982\u4f55\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u4e89\u800c\u6d88\u9664\u5bf9\u6297\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5e38\u5e38\u8d85\u4e4e\u5e38\u7406\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u610f\u5916\u751a\u81f3\u60ca\u5947\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6218\u4e89\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7834\u5929\u8352\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e24\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u503e\u5411\u662f\u53cc\u65b9\u5171\u540c\u56fd\u5883\u8fb9\u754c\u7ebf\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u4ed6\u8bd5\u56fe\u53bb\u5bfb\u627e\u4e24\u56fd\u5f00\u6218\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u8be5\u4e24\u56fd\u5171\u540c\u8fb9\u754c\u7ebf\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8ba9\u4ed6\u8be7\u5f02\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u573a\u5408\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u56fd\u5883\u7ebf\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ed6\u770b\u5230\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u548c\u8461\u8404\u7259\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56fd\u5883\u7ebf\u957f\u5ea6\u6709987\u516c\u91cc\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u67091214\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\uff1b\u8377\u5170\u548c\u6bd4\u5229\u65f6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56fd\u5883\u7ebf\u957f\u5ea6\u6709380\u516c\u91cc\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709449\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u662f\u6d4b\u91cf\u8bef\u5dee\u5417\uff1f\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u8c03\u67e5\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u4e0d\u662f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u539f\u56e0\u5462\uff1f\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u91cf\u5ea6\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u5355\u4f4d\u4e3a200\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u5c3a\u5b50\u53bb\u91cf\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u7684\u603b\u957f\u5ea6\u4e3a2400\u516c\u91cc\uff1b\u7528\u5355\u4f4d\u4e3a100\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u5c3a\u5b50\u53bb\u91cf\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u603b\u957f\u5ea6\u4e3a2800\u516c\u91cc\uff1b\u7528\u5355\u4f4d\u4e3a50\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u5c3a\u5b50\u53bb\u91cf\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u603b\u957f\u5ea6\u4e3a3400\u516c\u91cc\uff1b\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5355\u4f4d\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u5c3a\u5b50\u91cf\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5c3a\u5b50\u8d8a\u77ed\u7ed3\u679c\u8d8a\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u91cf\u5ea6<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53d1\u73b0\u662f\u5e38\u4eba\u4e0d\u96be\u7406\u89e3\u5e76\u4e14\u662f\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u603b\u957f\u5ea6\u4e0d\u7ba1\u4f60\u600e\u4e48\u53bb\u4e08\u91cf\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9a\u6570\uff1b\u5c3a\u5b50\u505a\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u7cbe\u7ec6\uff0c\u91cf\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u603b\u957f\u5ea6\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9a\u6570\u3002\u5bf9\u5427\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f46\u662f\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c0f\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u5c3a\u5b50\uff0c\u91cf\u5f97\u7684\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u603b\u957f\u5ea6\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u957f\uff01\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5c3a\u5b50\u7684\u957f\u5ea6\u8d8b\u4e8e\u96f6\uff0c\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u7684\u603b\u957f\u5ea6\u4f1a\u8d8b\u4e8e\u65e0\u7a77\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6781\u9650\u73b0\u8c61\u4eca\u5929\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u6548\u5e94\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5f53\u5e74\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5341\u5206\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u3002\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u5b83\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6570\u5b66\u5206\u5f62<\/span>\uff08Fractals\uff09<\/span>\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u3002\u201c\u5206\u5f62\u4e4b\u7236\u201d\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u66fc\u5fb7\u535a<\/span>\uff08Beno\u00eet B. Mandelbrot\uff0c1924-2010\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u4ed61967\u5e74\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u8bba\u6587\u201c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u6709\u591a\u957f\uff1f\u7edf\u8ba1\u81ea\u76f8\u4f3c\u548c\u5206\u6570\u7ef4\u5ea6\u201d\u4e2d\u628a\u5206\u5f62\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8d77\u59cb\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7684\u4e0a\u8ff0\u53d1\u73b0\u3002\u8bf4\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u66fc\u5fb7\u535a\u77e5\u9053\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u7eaf\u5c5e\u5076\u7136\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u6e05\u7406\u65e7\u6587\u732e\u65f6\u5f80\u4e00\u672c1961\u5e74\u300aGeneral Systems Year Book\u300b\u7684\u9644\u5f55\u779f\u4e86\u4e00\u773c\u65f6\u7a81\u7136\u89c1\u5230\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u5e74\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\uff0c\u6709\u2f00\u4e2a\u4ecb\u4e8e1\u548c2\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u6d77\u5cb8\u7ebf\u968f\u7740\u6d4b\u91cf\u53d8\u7cbe\u7ec6\u6240\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5206\u6570\u503c\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5206\u5f62\u7ef4\u6570\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5e76\u975e\u5e08\u51fa\u540d\u95e8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u201c\u72ec\u884c\u4fa0\u201d\u5f0f\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u6781\u5c11\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\uff0c\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u52a9\u7406\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6587\u7ae0\u81ea\u5df1\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5b8c\u6210\u548c\u53d1\u8868\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u8d21\u732e\u5353\u8457\uff0c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u6570\u5b66\u3001\u6570\u503c\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u3001\u6d41\u4f53\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u5e73\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u8ba1\u91cf\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7b49\u4ea4\u53c9\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u53bb\u4e16\u540e\uff0c1959\u5e74\u82f1\u56fd Lancaster University \u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7814\u7a76\u9662<\/span>\uff08Richardson Institute\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5f00\u5c55\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u30021960\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e86\u5e74\u5ea6\u9881\u53d1\u7684\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u9752\u5e74\u6700\u4f73\u8bba\u6587\u5956\u30021972\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u628a\u603b\u90e8\u5927\u697c\u4e00\u7ffc\u547d\u540d\u4e3a\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u697c\u7ffc<\/span>\uff08Richardson Wing\uff09<\/span>\u30021998\u5e74\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5730\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u8054\u76df<\/span>\uff08European Geosciences Union\uff09<\/span>\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e86\u5e74\u5ea6\u9881\u53d1\u7684\u201c\u8def\u6613\u65af\u00b7\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5956\u7ae0\u201d<\/span>\uff08Lewis Fry Richardson Medal\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8868\u5f70\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u7a81\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5206\u5f62\u4e4b\u7236\u66fc\u5fb7\u535a\u8363\u83b72000\u5e74\u5ea6\u7684\u5956\u7ae0\u30022001\u5e74\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u653f\u6cbb\u7814\u7a76\u8054\u76df<\/span>\uff08European Consortium for Political Research\uff09<\/span>\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e86\u201c\u8def\u6613\u65af\u00b7\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7ec8\u751f\u6210\u5c31\u5956\u201d <\/span>\uff08Lewis Fry Richardson Lifetime Award\uff09<\/span>\u30022015\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u8bfb\u4e2d\u5b66\u7684 York \u9547\u7684 University of York \u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7cfb\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e86\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5b66\u672f\u8bb2\u5ea7\u7cfb\u5217\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\uff08\u7ad9\u7acb\u8005\uff09\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u53d1\u8a00\uff081949\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n


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1953\u5e749\u670830\u65e5\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u5728\u82cf\u683c\u5170 Kilmun \u6751\u7684\u5bb6\u91cc\u7761\u7720\u4e2d\u5e73\u9759\u53bb\u901d\uff0c\u4eab\u5e7472\u5c81\u3002\u592b\u4eba Dorothy \u56de\u5fc6\u8bf4\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u68ee\u7559\u7ed9\u5979\u7ec8\u751f\u96be\u5fd8\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u662f\u8981\u4e3a\u540e\u4eba\u7559\u4e0b\u66f4\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u3002\u6b64\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5219\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u53bb\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


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\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81eaNature\u3001Science<\/span>\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605\uff1a<\/span>
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