{"id":27260,"date":"2021-06-26T20:28:46","date_gmt":"2021-06-26T12:28:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27260"},"modified":"2021-06-26T20:28:46","modified_gmt":"2021-06-26T12:28:46","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%84%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b-%e9%9b%86%e6%99%ba%e7%99%be%e7%a7%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27260","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u516b\u3001\u53ef\u79fb\u690d\u6027 <\/span><\/strong>Transportability<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
\u4e5d\u3001\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc <\/span><\/strong>Bayesian network<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
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Judea Pearl\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5e8f\u7684\u4e09\u5143\u7ec4<U,V,E>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dU\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u5916\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5176\u503c\u7531\u6a21\u578b\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u51b3\u5b9a\uff1bV\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u5185\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5176\u503c\u7531\u6a21\u578b\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u51b3\u5b9a\uff1bE\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u628a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5185\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u503c\u8868\u793a\u4e3aU\u548cV\u4e2d\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u503c\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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19\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5b66\u79d1\u5f00\u59cb\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u591a\u5e74\u52aa\u529b\u786e\u5b9a\u8bf8\u5982\u751f\u7269\u9057\u4f20\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89c4\u5219\u540e\uff0c\u9ad8\u5c14\u987f\u5f15\u5165\u4e86 \u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52 Mean Regression \u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff08\u4ee5\u4e8c\u5e74\u751f\u75c7\u5019\u7fa4\u4e3a\u7f29\u5f71\uff09\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u8fd9\u5c06\u4ed6\u5f15\u5411\u4e86\u975e\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4ece\u8bb8\u591a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u53bb\u9664\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bc1\u660e\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u5165\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5173\u8054\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u5199\u9053: \u201c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8fd0\u52a8\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u529b\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6210\u957f\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u6811\u795e\u5b8c\u5168\u4e00\u6837\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u53ea\u662f\u201c\u73b0\u4ee3\u79d1\u5b66\u9ad8\u6df1\u5965\u79d8\u4e2d\u7684\u8ff7\u4fe1\u201d\u3002\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u671f\u520a\u201cBiometrika\u201d\u548c\u751f\u7269\u8bc6\u522b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff0c\u8be5\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u7edf\u8ba1\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5168\u7403\u9886\u519b\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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1908\u5e74\uff0cHardy\u548cWeinberg\u901a\u8fc7\u91cd\u62fe\u5b5f\u5fb7\u5c14\u9057\u4f20\u5f8b\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u5bfc\u81f4\u9ad8\u5c14\u987f\u653e\u5f03\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6027\u72b6\u7a33\u5b9a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


1921\u5e74\uff0cWright\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u5206\u6790\u6210\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u96cf\u5f62\u3002\u4ed6\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u8def\u5f84\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u540c\u65f6\u9610\u660e\u9057\u4f20\u3001\u53d1\u80b2\u548c\u73af\u5883\u5bf9\u8c5a\u9f20\u76ae\u6bdb\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u8c5a\u9f20\u51fa\u751f\u4f53\u91cd\u3001\u5b50\u5bab\u5185\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u4ea7\u4ed4\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u6765\u652f\u6301\u4ed6\u65c1\u95e8\u5de6\u9053\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u4f7f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u768440\u5e74\u4e2d\u88ab\u5bb6\u755c\u80b2\u79cd\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6240\u5ffd\u7565\u3002\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u6279\u8bc4Wright\u7684\u9886\u519b\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6Fisher\u7684\u6388\u610f\u4e0b\u3002\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u4f8b\u5916\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u53ebBurks\u7684\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u57281926\u5e74\u9996\u5148\u5e94\u7528\u8def\u5f84\u56fe\u6765\u8868\u793a\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u65ad\u8a00\u4fdd\u6301\u4e2d\u4ecb\u53d8\u91cf\u6052\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u8bef\u5dee\u3002\u5979\u53ef\u80fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u8def\u5f84\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


1923\u5e74\uff0cNeyman\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c(potential outcome)\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u76f4\u52301990\u5e74\u4ed6\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u624d\u88ab\u4ece\u6ce2\u5170\u8bed\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u82f1\u8bed\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


1958\u5e74\uff0cCox\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ec5\u5f53Z\u9ad8\u6982\u7387\u4e0d\u88ab\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u65f6\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cfZ\u624d\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


20\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0cDuncan\u3001Blalock\u3001Goldberger\u7b49\u4eba\u91cd\u65b0\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u8def\u5f84\u5206\u6790\u3002Duncan\u5728\u9605\u8bfbBlalock\u5173\u4e8e\u8def\u5f84\u56fe\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u65f6\uff0c\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u524dOgburn\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6f14\u8bb2\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u4e86Wright\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u53c8\u63d0\u5230\u4e86Burks\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u6700\u521d\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u79f0\u4e3a \u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b Structural Equation Modeling \uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u65e6\u5b83\u6210\u4e3a\u6559\u6761\u5f0f\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u6548\u7528\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u62d2\u7edd\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u8def\u5f84\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4ee3\u6570\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a \u8054\u7acb\u65b9\u7a0b\u5efa\u6a21 Simultaneous Equation Modeling \u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ecd\u7136\u907f\u514d\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u542b\u4e49\u8d4b\u4e88\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


Wright\u5728\u53d1\u8868\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u658760\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u6839\u636eKarlin\u7b49\u4eba\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6982\u8ff0\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u53cd\u5bf9\u4ec5\u5904\u7406\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u9c81\u68d2\u7684\u3001\u975e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8868\u793a\u65b9\u5f0f\u5219\u66f4\u5177\u63ed\u793a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


1973\u5e74\uff0cLewis\u63d0\u5021\u7528but-for\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff08\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff09\u4ee3\u66ff\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u5177\u6709\u60f3\u8c61\u67d0\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5426\u53d1\u751f\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u4ec5\u5728\u539f\u56e0\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u53ef\u9009\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u30021974\u5e74Rubin\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c potential outcome\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8be2\u95ee\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


1983\u5e74\uff0cCartwright\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u56e0\u679c\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u56e0\u5b50\u90fd\u662f\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u4ee5\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u552f\u4e00\u6307\u5bfc\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


1986\u5e74\uff0cBaron\u548cKenny\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u68c0\u6d4b\u548c\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ebf\u6027\u65b9\u7a0b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7684\u539f\u7406\u3002\u622a\u81f32014\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u662f\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u6700\u591a\u7684\u7b2c33\u7bc7\u3002\u90a3\u5e74\uff0cGreenland\u548cRobins\u901a\u8fc7\u8003\u8651\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u201c\u53ef\u4ea4\u6362\u6027\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6765\u5904\u7406\u6df7\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u8bc4\u4f30\u5982\u679c\u6cbb\u7597\u7ec4\u6ca1\u6709\u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7597\u4f1a\u7ed9\u6cbb\u7597\u7ec4\u5e26\u6765\u4ec0\u4e48\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u6ca1\u6709\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u8bbe\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff0c\u8be5\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u6b63\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u5efa\u6a21\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e4b\u68af<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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Judea Pearl\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5143\u6a21\u578b\u6d89\u53ca\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u62bd\u8c61\uff0c\u4ed6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u4e4b\u68af\u3002\u6700\u4f4e\u5c42\u7684\u201c\u5173\u8054\u201d\uff08\u770b\u5230\/\u89c2\u5bdf\uff09\u9700\u8981\u611f\u77e5\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\u6216\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u7528\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8868\u793a\u3002\u4e2d\u95f4\u5c42\u7684\u201c\u5e72\u9884 \u201d\uff08do\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u8868\u793a\u3002\u6700\u9ad8\u5c42\u7684\u201c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u201d\uff08\u60f3\u8c61\uff09\u6d89\u53ca\u6784\u5efa\u90e8\u5206\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u7279\u5b9a\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u6b64\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5173\u8054<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u5982\u679c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u8c61\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u89c2\u5bdf\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5219\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5bf9\u8c61\u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u8c61\u76f8\u5173\u8054\u3002\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u8d2d\u4e70\u7259\u818f\u7684\u8d2d\u7269\u8005\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8d2d\u4e70\u7259\u7ebf\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u7528<\/span><\/p>\n

P(\u4e70\u7259\u7ebf|\u4e70\u7259\u818f)
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\u8868\u793a\u5df2\u77e5\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u7259\u818f\u65f6\u7684\u5176\u8d2d\u4e70\u7259\u7ebf\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5173\u8054\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u3002\u5173\u8054\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u56e0\u679c\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u67d0\u4e2a\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f15\u8d77\uff08\u7259\u533b\u5bf9\u53e3\u8154\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20\u4f7f\u5f97\u8d2d\u7269\u8005\u540c\u65f6\u8d2d\u4e70\u7259\u7ebf\u548c\u7259\u818f\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5e72\u9884<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u8be5\u5c42\u6d89\u53ca\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u5730\u6267\u884c\u5f71\u54cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u52a8\u4f5c\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7259\u818f\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e00\u500d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u8d2d\u4e70\u7259\u7ebf\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c06\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u56e0\u679c\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u68c0\u9a8c\u5386\u53f2\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u540c\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5b58\u5728\u7259\u818f\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7259\u7ebf\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4e24\u79cd\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u589e\u52a0\uff09\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u7528 P(\u7259\u7ebf\u4ef7\u683c|do(\u7259\u818f\u4ef7\u683c)) \u8868\u793a\u8fd9\u79cd\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5176\u4e2ddo\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b97\u5b50\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u5bf9\u8c01\u505a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u5e72\u9884\uff08\u5982\u4ef7\u683c\u7ffb\u500d\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b97\u5b50\u6307\u793a\u4e86\u8981\u5728\u521b\u9020\u6240\u9700\u6548\u679c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0f\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u201c\u5c0f\u624b\u672f\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u6700\u9ad8\u5c42\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6d89\u53ca\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u7248\u672c\u7684\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8003\u8651\u540c\u4e00\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e2d\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5f53\u521d\u90a3\u5bb6\u5546\u5e97\u7684\u7259\u7ebf\u4ef7\u683c\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f53\u65f6\u90a3\u4e9b\u8d2d\u4e70\u7259\u818f\u7684\u8d2d\u7269\u8005\u4ecd\u7136\u4f1a\u8d2d\u4e70\u7259\u7ebf\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

P(\u4e70\u7259\u7ebf|\u4e70\u7259\u818f\uff0c\u5f53\u521d\u7259\u7ebf\u4ef7\u683c\u7ffb\u500d)<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u660e\u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u56de\u7b54\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5141\u8bb8\u8fdb\u884c\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u540e\u679c\u53ef\u88ab\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff08\u5982\u60ef\u6027\uff1a\u82e5\u4e0d\u5c06\u529b\u65bd\u52a0\u5230\u9759\u6b62\u7269\u4f53\u4e0a\u7269\u4f53\u5c06\u4e0d\u4f1a\u79fb\u52a8\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56e0\u679c\u548c\u76f8\u5173<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

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20\u4e16\u7eaa\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u5b8c\u5168\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u6216\u5173\u8054\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6X\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6Y\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

P(Y|X)>P(Y)
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\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u4ee5\u80cc\u666f\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b67\u4e49\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

P(Y|X,K=k)>P(Y|K=k)<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5176\u4e2dK\u662f\u80cc\u666f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u96c6\u5408\uff0ck\u8868\u793a\u7279\u5b9a\u8bed\u5883\u4e2d\u80cc\u666f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u503c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6982\u7387\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6240\u9700\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\u662f\u96be\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5b9a\u4e49\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5305\u62ec \u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c Granger Causality \uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8861\u91cf\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u503c\u9884\u6d4b\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u672a\u6765\u503c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e8f\u5217\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7c7b\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

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