{"id":27471,"date":"2021-07-03T17:48:48","date_gmt":"2021-07-03T09:48:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27471"},"modified":"2021-07-03T17:48:48","modified_gmt":"2021-07-03T09:48:48","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e5%a4%84%e7%90%86%ef%bc%88%e5%b9%b2%e9%a2%84%ef%bc%89%e6%95%88%e5%ba%94-%e9%9b%86%e6%99%ba%e7%99%be%e7%a7%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27471","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5904\u7406\uff08\u5e72\u9884\uff09\u6548\u5e94 | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u201c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u7cbe\u9009\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u4e13\u680f\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u63a8\u9001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7684\u5f00\u6e90\u79d1\u5b66\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u5e0c\u671b\u6253\u9020\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u6700\u5168\u9762\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3001\u70ed\u7231\u77e5\u8bc6\u6574\u7406\u548c\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u52a0\u5165\uff01
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\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94 (Average Treatment Effect, ATE)\u662f\u5728\u968f\u673a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2a\u4f53\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u533b\u836f\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7528\u4e8e\u6bd4\u8f83\u6cbb\u7597\u6216\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6d4b\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u6d4b\u91cf\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u5904\u7406\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5728\u968f\u673a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u6837\u672c\u5728\u5904\u7406\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u672a\u5904\u7406\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\u83b7\u5f97\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5e0c\u671b\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570 (\u5373\u4e00\u4e2a\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6216\u5c5e\u6027) \uff0c\u5b9a\u4e49\u65f6\u4e0d\u53c2\u8003\u8bd5\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6216\u4f30\u8ba1\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u968f\u673a\u8d4b\u503c\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u591a\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5904\u7406 (Treatment)\u4e00\u8bcd\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u533b\u836f\u9886\u57df\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u88ab\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u7528\u4e8e\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8bc4\u4ef7\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6216\u7ed3\u679c (Outcome)\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u5185\u5bb9\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u65f6\u76f8\u5bf9\u800c\u8a00\u5e76\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u4f30\u7b97\u8981\u6c42\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u8fdb\u884c\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u5904\u7406\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u4f46\u5904\u7406\u5177\u4f53\u5185\u5bb9(\u4f8b\u5982\u836f\u7269\u3001\u5956\u52b1\u6027\u652f\u4ed8\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5e7f\u544a)\u4e0e\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u65e0\u5173\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u201c\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u662f\u6307\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u5904\u7406\u6216\u5e72\u9884 (\u5982\u7ed9\u4e88\u67d0\u79cd\u836f\u7269)\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf(\u5982\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u5eb7\u590d)\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd (Causal Effect)\u3002\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684 Neyman-Rubin\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u201d\u4e2d\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8be5\u4e2a\u4f53\u7ed9\u4e0e\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u663e\u73b0\u4e00\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u8be5\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e0d\u7ed9\u4e88\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u663e\u73b0\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u201c\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u201d\u662f\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e2a\u4f53\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u4e2a\u4f53\u53ea\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u6216\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u63a5\u53d7\u548c\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u9700\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u7ed9\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u8fed\u4ee3\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e0a\u662f\u670d\u4ece\u540c\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e24\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94 \uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6837\u672c\u662f\u4ece\u603b\u4f53\u4e2d\u968f\u673a\u6784\u6210\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6837\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94 (Sample Average Treatment Effect\uff0c SATE)\u4e5f\u662f\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94 (Population Average Treatment Effect\uff0cPATE)\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u867d\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u786e\u4fdd\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6240\u6709\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u7b49\u4ef7\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u4e2a\u4f53\u5e76\u4e0d\u670d\u4ece\u968f\u673a\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5904\u7406\u4e2a\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u6216\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e0a\u52a0\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236 (\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u56de\u5f52\u6216\u5339\u914d) \uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u5bdf\u56e0\u7d20\u6df7\u6dc6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u6ca1\u6709\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u5b9a\u4e49\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7ed3\u679c: y<\/span>0<\/span>(i)\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53i\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u53d6\u503c\uff0cy<\/span>1<\/span>(i)<\/span>\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53i\u88ab\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u53d6\u503c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c<\/span>y<\/span>0<\/span>(i)<\/span><\/span>\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53i\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u6ce8\u5c04\u7814\u7a76\u836f\u7269\u65f6\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u6001\uff0cy<\/span>1<\/span>(i)<\/span>\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53i\u88ab\u6ce8\u5c04\u836f\u7269\u65f6\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e2a\u4f53i\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3ay<\/span>1<\/span>(i)<\/span>–y<\/span>0<\/span>(i<\/span>)<\/span>=\u03b2(i) \u3002\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679c\u5728\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u679cATE\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8fd9\u91cc\u5bf9\u603b\u4f53\u4e2d\u6240\u6709N\u6570\u91cf\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u805a\u5408\u5e73\u5747\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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