{"id":27641,"date":"2021-07-17T20:16:02","date_gmt":"2021-07-17T12:16:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27641"},"modified":"2021-07-17T20:16:02","modified_gmt":"2021-07-17T12:16:02","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e5%8f%af%e5%bf%bd%e7%95%a5%e6%80%a7ignorability-%e9%9b%86%e6%99%ba%e7%99%be%e7%a7%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27641","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027Ignorability | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='wxsyncmain'>\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;\" data-mpa-powered-by=\"yiban.io\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-ratio=\"0.5368314833501514\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"991\" height=\"499\" width=\"990\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-f6aad0ff735dab2994402bfa1443e120.png\"><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u201c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u7cbe\u9009\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u4e13\u680f\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u63a8\u9001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u7684\u5f00\u6e90\u79d1\u5b66\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u5e0c\u671b\u6253\u9020\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u6700\u5168\u9762\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3001\u70ed\u7231\u77e5\u8bc6\u6574\u7406\u548c\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u52a0\u5165\uff01<br  \/><\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u672c\u6587\u662f\u5bf9\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u4e2d\u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027Ignorability\u201d\u8bcd\u6761\u7684\u6458\u5f55\uff0c\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u8bcd\u6761\u8bf7\u53c2\u9605\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\u539f\u6587\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><\/span><\/section>\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"white-space: normal;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><em style=\"color: rgb(178, 178, 178);letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u672c\u8bcd\u6761\u7531\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u4f17\u5305\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u96be\u514d\u5b58\u5728\u7eb0\u6f0f\u548c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5927\u5bb6\u7559\u8a00\u53cd\u9988\u6216\u8005\u524d\u5f80\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\u9875\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u4e00\u7ecf\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u79ef\u5206\u5956\u52b1\u5662\uff01<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.54px;text-align: left;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\">\n<section data-mid=\"t4\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\">\n<section data-preserve-color=\"t\" data-mid=\"\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\">\n<section data-mid=\"\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\">\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\">\n<section>\n<section data-id=\"85410\" data-tools=\"135\u7f16\u8f91\u5668\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.54px;\">\n<section style=\"margin: 10px auto;\">\n<section style=\"margin-right: 3px;margin-left: 3px;padding: 20px;box-shadow: rgb(227, 223, 223) 0px 0px 4px;background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);\">\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"letter-spacing: 0.54px;color: rgb(61, 170, 214);font-size: 16px;\">\u76ee\u5f55<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section data-style=\"color: inherit; box-sizing: border-box;line-height: 1.75em; text-align: justify;\" style=\"border-color: rgb(131, 13, 0);color: inherit;\">\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4e00\u3001\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4e8c\u3001\u7f16\u8005\u63a8\u8350<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4e09\u3001<strong style=\"color: inherit;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.54px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(254, 254, 254);font-size: 15px;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.54px;\">\u767e\u79d1\u9879\u76ee\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u62db\u52df<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><strong style=\"color: inherit;letter-spacing: 0.54px;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.54px;\"><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong style=\"color: inherit;letter-spacing: 0.54px;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.54px;\"><br  \/><\/strong><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;\"><img class=\"rich_pages js_insertlocalimg\" data-ratio=\"0.5625\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"jpeg\" data-w=\"1280\" style=\"\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-9bcd52fb9c18a000632e0588997482ea.jpeg\"  \/><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5728<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u662f\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5373\u6570\u636e\u6536\u96c6\u65b9\u5f0f\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6027\u8d28\uff09\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u3002\u82e5\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5df2\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u54ea\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u88ab\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u6216\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u6307\u793a\u77e9\u9635\u4e0e\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u5219\u79f0\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u7f3a\u5931\u673a\u5236\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5904\u7406\u5206\u914d\u6216\u62bd\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\u7b56\u7565\uff09\u662f\u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f20\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Donald Rubin<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u548c<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Paul Rosenbaum<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">&nbsp;\u5408\u4f5c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u9c81\u5bbe\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u6a21\u578b Rubin Causal Model<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4f46\u90a3\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u7684\u786e\u5207\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e0d\u540c\u30021978\u5e74\u9c81\u5bbe\u5728\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236 ,\u5176\u53ef\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u5c06\u4e2a\u4f53\u5206\u914d\u5230\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u6709\u5173\u8be5\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u5728 1983 \u5e74\uff0cRubin \u548c Rosenbaum \u66f4\u786e\u5207\u5730\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u201c\u5904\u7406\u5206\u914d\u7684\u5f3a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\u4e3a<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><img class=\"rich_pages\" data-galleryid=\"\" data-ratio=\"0.09074733096085409\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"562\" style=\"\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-8790c68c78b4e9ecfa40c91e579c9bac.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><span style=\"color: rgb(32, 33, 34);font-family: sans-serif;text-align: start;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 20px;\">r<\/span><span style=\"color: rgb(32, 33, 34);font-family: sans-serif;text-align: start;font-size: 15px;\">t<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u662f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001 t \u4e0b\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff0cv\u662f\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0cz\u662f\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Pearl\u57282000\u5e74\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u56fe\u5f62\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u540e\u95e8 back-door\u201d \uff0c\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5e76\u80fd\u8bc6\u522b\u6ee1\u8db3\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section data-mpa-template=\"t\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section data-mpa-template=\"t\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"margin-bottom: -2px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;clear: both;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;max-width: 100%;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-right: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-top-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><span style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><span style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-is-content=\"t\">\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-top: -2px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" mpa-is-content=\"t\" style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;border-color: rgb(123, 12, 0);\"><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\uff08\u6216\u5916\u751f\u6027\uff09\u7684\u7b80\u660e\u542b\u4e49\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u6d89\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff08Y\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ffd\u7565\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u662f\u600e\u6837\u6700\u7ec8\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u800c\u975e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d(\u201c\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u201dTx = 1\uff0c\u6216\u201c\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u201dTx = 0\uff09\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u65e0\u6df7\u6dc6\u6742\u6027\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6216\u65e0\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5176\u6570\u5b66\u5f62\u5f0f\u53ef\u8bb0\u4e3a\uff1a[Yi1, Yi0] \u22a5 Txi \uff1b\u6216\u8005\u7528\u6587\u5b57\u8868\u8ff0\u4e3a\uff1a\u4e2a\u4f53\u201ci\u201d\u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679cY\u5e76\u4e0d\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\uff08\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\uff09\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u6700\u7ec8\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b9\u5f0f\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u89c6\u4e3a\u7b49\u4ef7\u53ef\u4ea4\u6362\u7684\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u7528\u4e0b\u6807\u8868\u793a\u201c\u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u201d\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u7528\u4e0a\u6807\u8868\u793a\u201c\u7406\u60f3\u201d\uff08\u6f5c\u5728\uff09\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5904\u7406\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\u3002\uff08\u7b26\u53f7\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u53ef\u53c2\u8003<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">David Freedman<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\uff1b\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u5e2e\u52a9\u6587\u6863\u53ef\u53c2\u8003\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">potential outcomes simplified<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2a\u4f53\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\uff08\u4e0a\u89d2\u6807\u4e3a 1\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679cY\u4e3aY11\/*Y01\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff08Y11, \u4e0b\u89d2\u6807\u4e5f\u4e3a 1\uff09 \uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f*Y01\u3002\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a* \u8868\u793a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u503c\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u53d6\u6216\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u76f8\u53cd\u6216\u79f0\u4e3a\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e counterfactual\uff08CF\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2a\u4f53\u672a\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\uff08\u4e0a\u89d2\u6807\u4e3a&nbsp;0\uff09, \u5176\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679cY\u4e3a*Y10\/Y00\u3002\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\uff08Y00\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\uff08*Y10\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5bf9\u4e8e\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5904\u7406\u5206\u914d\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c(PO)\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u751f\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c2\u6d4b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u65f6\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7528\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c(\u6216\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c)\u6765\u66ff\u4ee3\u65e0\u6cd5\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5f53\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\/\u5916\u751f\u6027\u6210\u7acb\u65f6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e2a\u4f53\u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u53ef\u5229\u7528\u5df2\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684 Y11&#8217;\u66ff\u6362&#8217;*Y01\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u5df2\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684 Y00&#8217;\u66ff\u6362&#8217;*Y10\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684Yi\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ece\u5e73\u5747\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u5982 E[Yi1 \u2013 Yi0&nbsp;]\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u5927\u5bb6\u5c1d\u8bd5\u83b7\u53d6\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff08TE\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7531\u4e8e\u201c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u51c6\u5219 consistency rule\u201d\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u5229\u7528\u5b9e\u9645\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u8868\u793a\uff1aYi0&nbsp;= Yi00&nbsp;\uff1bYi1 = Yi11\uff08\u201c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u51c6\u5219\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6b63\u662f\u8be5\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4ea7\u751f\u7ed3\u679cp. 872)\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0cTE = E[Yi1 \u2013 Yi0] = E[Yi11 \u2013 Yi00]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u52a0\u51cf\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u91cf *Y10&nbsp;\u5f97\u5230:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">E[Yi11&nbsp;\u2013 Yi00] = E[Yi11&nbsp;\u2013*Y10&nbsp;+*Y10&nbsp;&#8211; Yi00] = E[Yi11&nbsp;\u2013*Y10] + E[*Y10&nbsp;&#8211; Yi00] = ATT + {\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u504f\u5dee},<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u9879 ATT = \u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9879\u662f\u5f53\u4e2a\u4f53\u53ef\u9009\u62e9\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c\u5904\u7406\u201d\u7ec4\u6216\u201c\u63a7\u5236\u201d\u7ec4\u800c\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u65f6\u5f15\u5165\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u666e\u901a\u7684\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\uff0c\u90fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u6216\u6d88\u9664\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\uff08\u6216\u4f30\u8ba1\uff09\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<section data-mpa-template=\"t\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section data-mpa-template=\"t\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"margin-bottom: -2px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;clear: both;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;max-width: 100%;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-right: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-top-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><span style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><span style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-is-content=\"t\">\u7f16\u8005\u63a8\u8350<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-top: -2px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" mpa-is-content=\"t\" style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;border-color: rgb(123, 12, 0);\"><\/strong><br mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><br mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4e66\u7c4d\u63a8\u8350<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-ratio=\"1\"  data-type=\"jpeg\" data-w=\"200\" height=\"200\" width=\"200\" style=\"border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(200, 204, 209);vertical-align: middle;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-a114179ec140c3f3f387ff63551b81f5.jpeg\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">\u300a\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u5165\u95e8\u300b\u5c01\u9762<\/span><\/section>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.412px;white-space: normal;\">\n<li>\n<section style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u5165\u95e8&nbsp;\u5bf9\u5e94\u82f1\u6587Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u5165\u95e8\u7684\u6559\u6750\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u4ecb\u7ecd\u5982\u4f55\u4f7f\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\u5904\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba8\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u672c\u4e66\u5e0c\u671b\u534f\u52a9\u5177\u6709\u57fa\u7840\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u6559\u5e08\u548c\u5b66\u751f\u5e94\u5bf9\u51e0\u4e4e\u5728\u6240\u6709\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u975e\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u672c\u4e66\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b9a\u4e49\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f30\u8ba1\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u8bc1\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5f62\u5f0f\u63cf\u8ff0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5982\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u5176\u53ef\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\u5185\u5728\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.412px;white-space: normal;\">\n<li style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\n<section style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\">Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u8bfe\u7a0b\u63a8\u8350<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e Causal&nbsp;AI \u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u5df2\u7ecf\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u5b66\u754c\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4e3a\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u3001\u666e\u53ca\u63a8\u5e7f\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\u643a\u624b\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u5c06\u4e3e\u529e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u300c\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausalAI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u300d\u3002\u672c\u5b63\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7740\u529b\u4e8e\u5b9e\u64cd\u6027\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u6027\uff0c\u5c06\u5e26\u9886\u5927\u5bb6\u7cbe\u8bfb\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u5411\u4e24\u672c\u975e\u5e38\u53d7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u5165\u95e8\u6559\u6750\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">1. Pearl, Judea, Madelyn Glymour, and Nicholas P. Jewell. Causal inference in statistics: A primer. John Wiley &amp; Sons, 2016.\uff08\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\u8bd1\u7248\u300a\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u5165\u95e8\uff08\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7248\uff09\u300b\u5df2\u7531\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u51fa\u7248\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">2. Peters, Jonas, Dominik Janzing, and Bernhard Sch\u00f6lkopf. Elements of causal inference: foundations and learning algorithms. The MIT Press, 2017.<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u6bcf\u5468\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u76f4\u64ad\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u95ee\u9898\u4ea4\u6d41\u3001\u91cd\u70b9\u6982\u5ff5\u5206\u4eab\u3001\u9605\u8bfb\u6982\u89c8\u548c\u7f16\u7a0b\u5b9e\u8df5\u5185\u5bb9\u5206\u6790\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u9002\u5408\u6709\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u6df1\u5165\u5b66\u4e60\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u91cd\u8981\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u89e3\u51b3\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53c2\u52a0\u3002\u8be6\u60c5\u53c2\u89c1\uff1a<\/span><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247539257&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=d2bec726db7303f694138c30968214ad&amp;chksm=e89700b4dfe089a21ef3ad96bbbd8e98c476a65056de63912bec5512a998e66e6e0fe7550fbc&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" textvalue=\"\u8fde\u63a5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u81ea\u52a8\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u4ea4\u53c9\u9886\u57df\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u518d\u542f\u822a\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" data-linktype=\"2\" hasload=\"1\" style=\"font-size: 15px;\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8fde\u63a5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u81ea\u52a8\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u4ea4\u53c9\u9886\u57df\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u518d\u542f\u822a<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br style=\"white-space: normal;\"  \/><\/section>\n<h3 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u6587\u7ae0\u603b\u7ed3<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.412px;white-space: normal;\">\n<li style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\"><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247536144&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=2fbaca7c33bf83e6ce0391084a3143f6&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" data-linktype=\"2\">\u5d14\u9e4f\uff1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u5b66\u4e60\u2014\u2014\u6316\u6398\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u7840<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.412px;white-space: normal;\">\n<li style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\n<p style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\">\u77e5\u4e4e\u4e0aRandomWalk\u603b\u7ed3\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e4bPotential Outcome Framework\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u9000\u9540and\u989d\u76ee\u6807\u5c31\u662f\u4ece\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u4f30\u8ba1treatment effect\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Mesonychid\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u9875\u4e0a\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u5173\u4e8eDonald-Rubin\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">https:\/\/hanyuz1996.github.io\/2017\/08\/30\/Donald-Rubin\/<\/span><\/section>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.412px;white-space: normal;\">\n<li>\n<section style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Yishi Lin\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u9875\u4e0a\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ecb\u7ecd\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6f2b\u8c08\uff08\u4e00\uff09\uff1a\u6380\u5f00 \u201c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u201d \u7684\u9762\u7eb1<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">https:\/\/dango.rocks\/blog\/2019\/01\/08\/Causal-Inference-Introduction1\/<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u76f8\u5173\u8def\u5f84<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.412px;white-space: normal;\">\n<li>\n<section style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCasual AI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5fc5\u8bfb\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u5217\u8868\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u662f\u6839\u636e\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4e2d\u89e3\u8bfb\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u7c7b\u548c\u7b5b\u9009\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u5927\u5bb6\u68b3\u7406\u6574\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">https:\/\/pattern.swarma.org\/path?id=99<\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.412px;white-space: normal;\">\n<li>\n<section style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5\u6982\u8ff0,\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8def\u5f84\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5728\u54f2\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56e0\u679c\u5728\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u9762\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">https:\/\/pattern.swarma.org\/path?id=9<\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;width: 577.412px;white-space: normal;\">\n<li>\n<section style=\"line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u548c Causal AI\u5165\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8109\u7edc\u3002\u6b64\u8def\u5f84\u5c06\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5b9a\u4e49\u53ca\u5176\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\uff08Causal AI\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">https:\/\/pattern.swarma.org\/path?id=90<\/span><\/p>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<section data-mpa-template=\"t\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section data-mpa-template=\"t\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"margin-bottom: -2px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;clear: both;line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;line-height: 0;width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;max-width: 100%;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-right: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-top-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<p style=\"max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><span style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong style=\"max-width: 100%;text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><span style=\"max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-is-content=\"t\">\u767e\u79d1\u9879\u76ee\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u62db\u52df<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-top: -2px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><br style=\"max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"max-width: 100%;float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"><strong mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" mpa-is-content=\"t\" style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;border-color: rgb(123, 12, 0);\"><\/strong><br mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p><br mpa-from-tpl=\"t\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u9879\u76ee\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5185\u5bb9\u7531<\/span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">shlay<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7528\u6237\u53c2\u4e0e\u7f16\u8bd1\uff0c<\/span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">PengWu<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u53c2\u4e0e\u5ba1\u6821\uff0c<\/span><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u8584\u8377<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7f16\u8f91\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u548c\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u51c6\u5907\u4e86\u4e13\u5c5e\u7b80\u4ecb\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u4e3b\u9875\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbf\u95ee\u5176\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u9875\u3002<\/span><span style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"rich_pages js_insertlocalimg\" data-ratio=\"0.5555555555555556\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"jpeg\" data-w=\"900\" style=\"width: 464px;height: 258px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-0ebed6292c7493433525bd57283b9532.jpeg\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"rich_pages js_insertlocalimg\" data-ratio=\"0.5555555555555556\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"jpeg\" data-w=\"900\" style=\"width: 464px;height: 258px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-2ffc30d00134047c5f0192271173df3b.jpeg\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"rich_pages\" data-galleryid=\"\" data-ratio=\"0.5555555555555556\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"900\" style=\"width: 466px;height: 259px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-6db1bb095284dc0854878ada14306f4a.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5185\u5bb9\u90fd\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u8fd9\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6765\u81ea\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u79d1\u548c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u5206\u914d\u6709\u5ba1\u6821\u3001\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3001\u7f16\u8f91\u3001\u5ba3\u4f20\u7b49\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u79c9\u6301\uff1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ece\u6211\u800c\u6765\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5230\u6211\u4e3a\u6b62\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u8ba4\u771f\u8d1f\u8d23\u7f16\u64b0\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6761\u3002<\/span><br  \/><\/section>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;\"><img class=\"rich_pages\" data-ratio=\"0.5555555555555556\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"900\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 677px !important;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-96a62292ad1641ec07d2bdfec113a955.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u6027\u77e5\u8bc6\u51fa\u53d1\u4e0e\u4f19\u4f34\u540c\u884c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u52a0\u5165\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u4f7f\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\u5185\u5bb9\u5f97\u5230\u6269\u5145\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4f4d\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u76f8\u5e94\u5956\u52b1\u4e0e\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u9875\u4e0e\u8d21\u732e\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a2\u7d22\u590d\u6742\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-size-adjust: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u610f\u53c2\u4e0e\u66f4\u52a0\u7cfb\u7edf\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u5206\u5de5\uff0c\u626b\u63cf\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u586b\u5199\u62a5\u540d\u8868\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u671f\u5f85\u4f60\u7684\u52a0\u5165\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-size-adjust: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-size-adjust: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;\"><img class=\"rich_pages\" data-cropselx1=\"0\" data-cropselx2=\"562\" data-cropsely1=\"0\" data-cropsely2=\"312\" data-ratio=\"1\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"500\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 188px !important;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/wxsync-2021-07-2362e8c744727da7bd820ef764b6029b.png\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-size-adjust: 100%;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);\">\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u62a5\u540d\u8868<\/span><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<section style=\"white-space: normal;\">\n<blockquote class=\"js_blockquote_wrap\" data-type=\"2\" data-url=\"\" data-author-name=\"\" data-content-utf8-length=\"13\" data-source-title=\"\">\n<section class=\"js_blockquote_digest\">\n<p>\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1<\/p>\n<p>\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u738b\u5efa\u840d<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 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data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" data-linktype=\"2\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1<\/a><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;\">\n<p style=\"line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247565303&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=05b7dcf20b2c66655bd2df8766f1ca14&amp;chksm=e896a57adfe12c6c5ab633898a3fd3f0683a2410aa35bae54498a23c81c78039e192e5c20e24&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" data-linktype=\"2\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1<\/a><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;\">\n<p style=\"line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247561877&amp;idx=3&amp;sn=89a6e03351a3fbdb7f74c04c6c46efe5&amp;chksm=e896a818dfe1210e38e153ec19cdc11ae86f929bb2ff669bb41218755d545d984bbba5538b1e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" data-linktype=\"2\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u8d85\u56fe | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1<\/a><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-size: 14px;font-weight: bold;\">\n<p style=\"line-height: 2em;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247566362&amp;idx=4&amp;sn=fc380d876f5e991ef0bfcb157760c046&amp;chksm=e8969e97dfe117814f8341596599cf7c17178abe6913e8d1d2034acdec6120445d3a96d87fc0&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" data-linktype=\"2\" style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5206\u6790 | 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