{"id":27916,"date":"2021-08-03T21:41:44","date_gmt":"2021-08-03T13:41:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27916"},"modified":"2021-08-03T21:41:44","modified_gmt":"2021-08-03T13:41:44","slug":"%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%8e%a8%e6%96%ad%ef%bc%9a%e7%8e%b0%e4%bb%a3%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1%e7%9a%84%e6%80%9d%e6%83%b3%e9%a3%9e%e8%b7%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=27916","title":{"rendered":"\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u98de\u8dc3"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u4e8e2021\u5e743\u6708\u52307\u6708\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>\uff0c\u4ece\u57fa\u7840\u548c\u5b9e\u64cd\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u7cbe\u8bfb\u4e24\u672c\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u6559\u6750\uff0c\u7814\u8ba8\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u524d\u6cbf\u6587\u732e\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u5f00\u653e\u62a5\u540d\u4e2d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7600\u4f4d\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u5b66\u8005\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u8be6\u60c5\u89c1\u6587\u672b\u3002<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u300a\u6570\u5b66\u6587\u5316\u300b2021\/\u7b2c 12 \u5377\u7b2c 2 \u671f<\/span> | <\/strong><\/span><\/strong>\u6765\u6e90<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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1. \u5f15\u8a00<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u63a2\u6c42\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6c38\u6052\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4ece\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u5148\u79e6\u7684\u8bd7\u6b4c\uff0c\u90fd\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u5bf9\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u8ffd\u95ee\u548c\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u601d\u8003\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e9a\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u5c31\u5728\u300a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u300b<\/span>\uff08Physics<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u300a\u5f62\u800c\u4e0a\u5b66\u300b<\/span>\uff08Metaphysics<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u4e24\u4e66\u4e2d\u53cd\u590d\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u6709\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u7b97\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u7269\u3002\u53c8\u5982\uff0c\u5c48\u539f\u5728\u300a\u5929\u95ee\u300b\u5f00\u7bc7\uff0c\u5c31\u8ffd\u95ee\u65e5\u6708\u661f\u8fb0\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u597d\u5947\u5730\u8ffd\u95ee\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u53c8\u82e6\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bdd\u9898\u5728\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u90fd\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5c40\u9650\u5728\u54f2\u5b66\u548c\u6587\u5b66\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u8fd1\u4ee3\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u9879\u601d\u60f3\u98de\u8dc3\uff0c\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ee3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u201d<\/span>\uff08causal inference\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u840c\u82bd\u9636\u6bb5\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5b83\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5e76\u975e\u4e00\u5e06\u98ce\u987a\uff1a\u5b83\u957f\u671f\u88ab\u4e3b\u6d41\u5ffd\u89c6\u3001\u6000\u7591\u751a\u81f3\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u76f4\u81f3\u6700\u8fd1\u56db\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6700\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u5b83\u624d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u548c\u5927\u529b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u5f53\u4eca\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0cAndrew Gelman \u548c Aki Vehtari \u8bc4\u9009\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u516b\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e00\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad[1]\u3002\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6765\u81ea\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u5b66\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u54f2\u5b66\u7b49\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u3002\u6beb\u4e0d\u5938\u5f20\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fce\u6765\u4e86\u5b83\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u56de\u987e\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u8bc4\u8ff0\u4e2d\u56fd\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5927\u80c6\u63a8\u6d4b\u5b83\u672a\u6765\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. \u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4f55\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff1f<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u56fe1 \u4e9a\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u300a \u7269\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u82f1\u8bd1\u672c\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684 Book II 3 \u7684\u5f00\u7bc7\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201cKnowledge is the object of our inquiry, and men do not think they know a thing till they have grasped the ‘why’ of it (which is to grasp its primary cause)\u201d\uff0c\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u4e2d\u6587\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u201c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201d\uff0c\u624d\u7b97\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u5373\uff0c\u638c\u63e1\u8be5\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u897f\u65b9\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u3001\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6bcb\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\u7684\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5927\u536b\u2022\u4f11\u8c1f<\/span>\uff08David Hume, 1711-1776\uff09<\/span>\u66fe\u7ecf\u629b\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u3002\u7b80\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u4ec5\u4ec5\u51ed\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4e8b\u7269\u4e4b\u95f4\u6052\u5b9a\u7684\u524d\u540e\u76f8\u7ee7\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08constant conjunction\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4efb\u4f55\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u90fd\u52aa\u529b\u56de\u5e94\u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u82e5\u662f\u627f\u8ba4\u4f11\u8c1f\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f55\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff1f\u82e5\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6027\u7684\u524d\u540e\u76f8\u7ee7\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u62e5\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u201c\u5fc3\u667a\u7684\u8363\u8000\u201d[2]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe2 \u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u540d\u8457\u300a\u4eba\u6027\u8bba\u300b\u5bf9\u54f2\u5b66\u53f2\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u5f52\u7eb3\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u4e60\u60ef\uff08habit\uff09\u548c\u4f20\u7edf\uff08custom\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u4f3c\u4e4e\u90fd\u662f\u5f92\u52b3\u7684\u3002\u6211\u5728\u5b66\u751f\u65f6\u4ee3\u66fe\u7ecf\u4e0a\u8fc7\u9093\u6653\u8292\u6559\u6388\u201c\u5eb7\u5fb7\u54f2\u5b66\u201d\u7684\u8bfe\uff0c \u4ed6\u5c31\u76f4\u8a00\uff0c\u4f11\u8c1f\u662f\u9a73\u4e0d\u5012\u7684\u3002\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u4f11\u8c1f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u6000\u7591\u8bba\u8005\uff0c\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u9a73\u5012\u7684\u3002\u6211\u56de\u987e\u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u9ad8\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u60f3\u5356\u5f04\u54f2\u5b66\u53f2\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f11\u8c1f\u662f\u7ed5\u4e0d\u5f00\u7684\uff1a\u65e0\u8bba\u4f55\u65f6\u4f55\u5730\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u8c08\u53ca\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4eba\u5f15\u7528\u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u8d28\u7591\u4f60\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f11\u8c1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fd1\u4e4e\u8bc5\u5492\u4f3c\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5316\u6b65\u5c65\u7ef4\u8270\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u51e0\u9879\u8f89\u714c\u6210\u679c\u6539\u5199\u4e86\u601d\u60f3\u53f2\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u4eba\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u518d\u7f9e\u4e8e\u8ba8\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u5230\u4e86\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u9886\u57df\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6210\u679c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u51b3\u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5b83\u4eec\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u65b0\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u63a8\u7406\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u5206\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\u56de\u987e\u5386\u53f2\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u201c\u54e5\u767d\u5c3c\u5f0f\u7684\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5185\u66fc\u7684\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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1923 \u5e74\uff0c\u8036\u65e5\u2022\u5185\u66fc<\/span>\uff08Jerzy Neyman, 1894-1981\uff09<\/span> \u8fd8\u662f\u6ce2\u5170\u534e\u6c99\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u751f\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6bd5\u4e1a\u8bba\u6587\u662f\u201c\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u5728\u519c\u4e1a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u201d[3]\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7528\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d<\/span>\uff08potential outcomes\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5b83\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u65ad\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u975e\u5e38\u81ea\u7136\uff0c\u6570\u5b66\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002<\/span>
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\u56fe3 \u5e74\u8f7b\u65f6\u7684\u5185\u66fc\u3002\u5185\u66fc\u662f\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba<\/span>\uff08\u7167\u7247\u7531\u8be5\u7cfb\u63d0\u4f9b\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4ee5\u519c\u4e1a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8003\u8651 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8005\u60f3\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e24\u79cd\u80a5\u6599\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7528 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8868\u793a\u7b2c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\uff0c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8868\u793a\u5982\u679c\u7528\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u7b2c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5c31\u662f\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5bf9\u7b2c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8005\u968f\u673a\u5730\u5206\u914d\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u6216\u8005\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5230\u7b2c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6700\u7ec8\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u4e48\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u6d4b\u4e24\u8005\u3002\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e0b\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u56f0\u96be\u5c31\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u6d4b <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u76f4\u63a5\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u89c2\u6d4b\u5355\u4e2a\u7684 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u592a\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u9000\u800c\u6c42\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u7814\u7a76\u5b83\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6570\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/rect><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08average causal effect\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u3002\u5230\u6b64\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u5185\u66fc\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u6570\u5b66\u8bb0\u53f7\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\u8bfb\u8005\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u5e73\u5e73\u65e0\u5947\uff0c\u65e0\u975e\u5c31\u662f <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bb0\u53f7\u5c06\u5f00\u542f\u4e00\u6247\u7a97\uff0c\u8fce\u63a5\u65b0\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u66d9\u5149\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5047\u60f3\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u4ec5\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd8\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u6839\u636e\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6570\u636e\u63a8\u65ad <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff1f\u5185\u66fc\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u3002\u5728\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b2c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\u63a5\u53d7\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u6216\u8005\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u7684\u3002\u7528 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8868\u793a\u7b2c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\u63a5\u53d7\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u7528 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8868\u793a\u7b2c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\u63a5\u53d7\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u56fa\u5b9a\u63a5\u53d7\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u7530\u7684\u603b\u6570\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5411\u91cf\u662f <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u4e2a <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u4e2a <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u968f\u673a\u7f6e\u6362<\/span>\uff08random permutation\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7b2c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5757\u7530\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c31\u662f<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5b83\u662f\u63a5\u53d7\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c\u80a5\u6599 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5dee\u503c\u3002\u5185\u66fc\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08\u5373 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u671f\u671b\u662f <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u4f30\u8ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u8fd9\u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\u4ee5\u6307\u5b9a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u76d6\u4f4f\u771f\u503c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg><\/span><\/span> \uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u5728\u5185\u66fc\u7684\u539f\u6587\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u5230\u4e86 Paul Erdos, Alfred Renyi \u548c Jaroslav Hajek \u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u624d\u88ab\u4e25\u683c\u5316[4]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u4ec5\u4ec5\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u591a\u5f69\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u505a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5185\u66fc\u672c\u4eba\u4e8e 1935 \u5e74\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4f1a\u5ba3\u8bfb\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u533a\u7ec4\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08randomized block design\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u62c9\u4e01\u65b9\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08Latin squares design\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u7f57\u7eb3\u5fb7\u2022\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Ronald Fisher\uff09<\/span> \u5728\u5185\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u6fc0\u70c8\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u4f7f\u7528\u5185\u66fc\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u8bb0\u53f7\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u59cb\u7ec8\u662f\u4ed6\u601d\u8003\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u3002\u968f\u540e\u7684\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/span>\uff08randomized controlled trial \uff1bRCT\uff09<\/span>\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u98df\u54c1\u836f\u54c1\u76d1\u7763\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u6279\u51c6\u65b0\u836f\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u590d\u6742\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u548c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u4e09\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0cAbhijit Banerjee\uff0c Esther Duflo \u548c Michael Kremer\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7528\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86 2019 \u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5185\u66fc\u751f\u524d\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u9887\u4e3a\u81ea\u8c6a\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u90a3\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u201c\u54e5\u767d\u5c3c\u5f0f\u7684\u9769\u547d\u201d<\/span>\uff08Copernican Revolution\uff09[5]\u3002<\/span>\u4ed6\u5e76\u672a\u9884\u6599\u4ed6\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5f71\u54cd\u5219\u662f\u7531\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u2022\u9c81\u5bbe<\/span>\uff08Donald Rubin\uff09<\/span>\u5f00\u542f\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u9c81\u5bbe\u5173\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4ece\u76f4\u89c9\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5927\u5bb6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u611f\u5230\u60ca\u5947\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ec4\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u610f\u4e49\u4e0b\u662f\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u522b\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u80a5\u6599\u5bf9\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u6570\u636e\u6536\u96c6\u5e76\u975e\u6e90\u81ea\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\uff08observational study\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u5438\u70df\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u4f26\u7406\u4e0d\u5141\u8bb8\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u5730\u8ba9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u62bd\u70df\u3001\u8ba9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u4e0d\u62bd\u70df\u3002\u518d\u5982\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u5bf9\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u968f\u673a\u5730\u8ba9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u4e0a\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u8ba9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u4e0d\u4e0a\u5927\u5b66\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e5f\u8feb\u5207\u5730\u60f3\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe4 \u9c81\u5bbe\u6559\u6388\u6b63\u5728\u4f5c\u62a5\u544a<\/span>\uff08\u622a\u5c4f\u81eahttps:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=N4tQC3elGK4\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

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    \u9c81\u5bbe\u7ed9\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u534f\u53d8\u91cf  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c \u5904\u7406\u53d8\u91cf  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u9c81\u5bbe\u79f0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e3a\u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08ignorability\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u540d\u5b57\uff1a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e38\u5e38\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u65e0\u6df7\u6742\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08unconfoundedness\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e38\u5e38\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u673a\u5236\u201d<\/span>\uff08selection on observables\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u63a8\u5bfc\u5f97\u5230\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

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    \u4e3a\u4e86\u7b80\u5355\u8d77\u89c1\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u5047\u8bbe X \u662f\u79bb\u6563\u7684\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff1b\u4e00\u822c\u5316\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u7406\u5f97\u5230\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u63a8\u5bfc\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7528\u5230\u4e86\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6cd5\u5219\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u662f\u5168\u6982\u7387\u516c\u5f0f\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\u7531\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5f97\u5230\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\u6839\u636e  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5c06  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u66ff\u6362\u6210  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u6216\u8005  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u6700\u5de6\u8fb9\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u88ab\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6700\u53f3\u8fb9\u7684\u91cf\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u6280\u672f\u6027\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684<\/span>\uff08identifiable\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u76f4\u89c2\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u6784\u9020\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u62df\u5408  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5173\u4e8e <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6839\u636e\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u4f30\u8ba1 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>.<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

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    \u5176\u4e2d  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u662f\u5904\u7406\u7684\u6307\u793a\u53d8\u91cf\u7ed9\u5b9a\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u4e5f\u6709\u6bd4\u8f83\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5e76\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5165\u7ec4\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u3002Paul Rosenbaum \u548c\u9c81\u5bbe\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec1983 \u5e74\u7684 Biometrika<\/em> \u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\uff0c \u53d1\u6325\u7740\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u201d<\/span>\uff08propensity score\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u3001\u4e0d\u5e73\u51e1\u7684\u610f\u4e49\uff1a\u53f3\u8fb9\u7684\u91cf\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u62df\u5408\u4e86  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5173\u4e8e  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4f30\u8ba1 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u4e86\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u7684\u9006\u8fdb\u884c\u52a0\u6743\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u5b83\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u9006\u6982\u52a0\u6743\u201d<\/span>\uff08inverse probability weighting \uff1bIPW\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    Rosenbaum \u548c\u9c81\u5bbe\u7684\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662f Biometrika<\/em> \u8fd9\u4e2a\u6742\u5fd7\u521b\u520a\u4ee5\u6765\u5f15\u7528\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e24\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e4b\u4e00[7]<\/sup>\u3002\u5728\u5b83\u53d1\u8868\u540e\u7684\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7406\u8bba\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u63a8\u5e7f\u7684\u3001\u66f4\u52a0\u7cbe\u81f4\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u88ab\u7528\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u8bf8\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe5 \u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u5426\u5b9a\u5438\u70df\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u867d\u7136\u5185\u66fc\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3a\u8001\u4e00\u8f88\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6240\u719f\u77e5\uff0c \u4f46\u662f\u5728\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5b83\u51e0\u4e4e\u9500\u58f0\u533f\u8ff9\u4e86\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4e0d\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u88ab\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5728\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u88ab\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u4ece\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u9c81\u5bbe\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u7ae0\u544a\u8bc9\u5927\u5bb6\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u601d\u8003\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6709\u529b\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u8d77\u521d\u5e76\u4e0d\u88ab\u7edf\u8ba1\u6742\u5fd7\u6240\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u591a\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u770b\u6765\u79bb\u7ecf\u53db\u9053\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4f7f\u4ed6\u6210\u4e3a\u540d\u526f\u5176\u5b9e\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u62d3\u8352\u8005\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u9c81\u5bbe\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u6df1\u5165\u53d9\u8ff0\uff1b\u66f4\u591a\u7cbe\u5f69\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u4e13\u8457\u4e2d\u627e\u5230[8]\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f15\u5165\u4e0b\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u6211\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u9c81\u5bbe\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fdb\u884c\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u6279\u5224\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5904\u7406  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c\u7ed3\u679c  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5148\u540e\u987a\u5e8f\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u524d\u4e00\u540e\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c \u5f88\u591a\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u540c\u65f6\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u52a8\u6001\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u9c81\u5bbe\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u8054\u7acb\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u201d<\/span>\uff08simultaneous equation model\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u5b9a\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u5982\u4f55\u5224\u5b9a\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u80fd\u76f8\u4fe1\u7531\u5b83\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7ed3\u679c\u5462\uff1f\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u66fe\u7ecf\u8d28\u7591\u5438\u70df\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u5b83\u65e2\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u80ba\u764c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u5438\u70df\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u865a\u5047\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u9057\u6f0f\u6389\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u56e0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9c81\u5bbe\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5c31\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u592a\u5bb9\u6613\u6709\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u89e3\u7b54\u3002\u73c0\u5c14\u8bd5\u56fe\u56de\u7b54\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7b80\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u56de\u7b54\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u800c\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u529b\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u91cd\u65b0\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e86\u9c81\u5bbe\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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    <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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    5. \u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u9769\u547d\u201d\uff1a\u73c0\u5c14\u5bf9\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    <\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u73c0\u5c14\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u96cf\u5f62\u662f\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u76f4\u89c2\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u7528\u56fe\u6765\u523b\u753b\u6761\u4ef6\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027[9]\u5f88\u591a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u975e\u5e38\u4e60\u60ef\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe <\/span>(directed acyclic graph \uff1bDAG) <\/span>\u6765\u8868\u793a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\u3002\u73c0\u5c14\u521b\u9020\u6027\u5730\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u5b83\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed9\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8fd0\u7b97\u6cd5\u5219\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u4e3a\u4e86\u63cf\u8ff0\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fe\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u8bed\u8a00\u3002\u4e00\u7ec4\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a DAG \uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7528 <\/span><\/path><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8868\u793a\u548c\u8282\u70b9 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7d27\u90bb\u4e14\u5904\u4e8e\u7bad\u5934\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\u5408<\/span>\uff08parent node\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u96c6\u5408\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u7a7a\u96c6\u3002DAG \u4e2d\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u89e3\u6210<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe6 \u4e00\u4e2a DAG \u7684\u4f8b\u5b50<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8003\u8651\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684 DAG\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u5177\u4f53\u5316\u6210\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u7528\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u56fe\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u601d\u8003\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5462\uff1f\u73c0\u5c14\u5f15\u5165\u4e86 do \u7b97\u5b50\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u5e72\u9884\u67d0\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u5230\u67d0\u4e2a\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u63a7\u5236\u67d0\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u6211\u5148\u7ed9\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u518d\u7ed9\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u5730\uff0c<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n
    \u4e0a\u9762\u7b49\u5f0f\u7684\u5de6\u8fb9\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684DAG \uff1a\u5728\u539f\u6765\u7684 DAG \u4e0a\u5f3a\u5236  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u53d6  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5220\u9664\u6240\u6709\u6307\u5411  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u8fb9\uff08\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5f3a\u5236  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u53d6  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48 <\/span><\/path><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6307\u5411  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u8fb9\u4e0d\u518d\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff09\u3002\u7b49\u5f0f\u7684\u53f3\u8fb9\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b0 DAG \u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u539f\u59cb DAG \u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4ece\u5de6\u8fb9\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u51fa\u8fb9\u7f18\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u4ed6\u4eec\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5dee\uff0c\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e86\u5e72\u9884  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u503c\uff0c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5206\u5e03\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u8fb9\u7f18\u5206\u5e03\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u671f\u671b<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\uff0c\u5c31\u662f  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u4e0b\uff0c\u7528 do \u7b97\u5b50\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u70b9\u662f<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u5373 do \u7b97\u5b50\u548c\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7528\u4f20\u7edf\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5b9a\u4e49\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5185\u66fc\u548c\u9c81\u5bbe\u7528\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u73c0\u5c14\u5219\u7528 do \u7b97\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u6765\u770b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u4ece\u4e0a\u9762\u7684 DAG \u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u79ef\u5206\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u8fb9\u7f18\u5206\u5e03 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u53ef\u5f97 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u7684\u8da3\u5473\u6027\u8fd8\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u6240\u6709\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u73c0\u5c14\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u7528\u4e0a\u9762\u7684 DAG \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u201d<\/span>\uff08backdoor criterion\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u201c\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u201d<\/span>\uff08frontdoor criterion\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7ed3\u679c\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u548c\u6280\u672f\u7ec6\u8282\uff1b\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u89c1\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u548c\u4e13\u8457[10]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n

    5.1 \u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \u6839\u636e\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8981\u7814\u7a76  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u9700\u89c2\u6d4b\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u89c2\u6d4b <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5373\u53ef\u3002\u76f4\u89c2\u4e0a\uff0c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u4e86\u4ece  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u6240\u6709\u201c\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u201d\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u6307\u5411  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u3001\u770b\u4f3c\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u4f46\u662f\u6709\u201c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u201d\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u8def\u5f84 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b97\u6210\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u73c0\u5c14\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7528 <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \u7c7b\u4f3c\u6709  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6709\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/embed><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \u82e5\u5c06  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>,  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>,  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6362\u6210  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>,  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>,  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e0a\u9762\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u548c\u5728\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0b\u5047\u5b9a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u9c81\u5bbe\u548c\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u81f3\u6b64\u6b8a\u9014\u540c\u5f52\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u6d4b\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u201c\u5171\u540c\u539f\u56e0\u201d<\/span>\uff08common cause\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u65e2\u5f71\u54cd\u539f\u56e0\u53c8\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u9c81\u5bbe\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u800c\u73c0\u5c14\u8ba4\u4e3a\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n

    5.2 \u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5e26\u6765\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u60ca\u559c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7ed9\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u5728\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u5374\u8ba9\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5403\u60ca\u3002\u6839\u636e\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ec5\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u6d4b <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u76f4\u89c2\u4e0a\uff0c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u4ece  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u201c\u524d\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u201d\uff1b\u53e6\u5916\uff0c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6ca1\u6709\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff0c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u90fd\u88ab  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u4e86\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ea6\u675f\u4e0b\uff0c\u73c0\u5c14\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe7 \u73c0\u5c14\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u300a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u300b<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u56fe\u7247\u6765\u81ea\uff1ahttps:\/\/momentmag.com\/author-interview-judea- pearl\/<\/span><\/p>\n


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    \u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u4e4d\u770b\u6709\u4e9b\u5947\u5999\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u3002\u6216\u8bb8\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u76f4\u89c2\u89e3\u91ca\u5bf9\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u4f55\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6240\u5e2e\u52a9\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
    (a)  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n
    (b)  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u88ab  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u4e86\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n
    (<\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>)  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4ec5\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u6210  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u548c  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u201c\u4e58\u79ef\u201d \u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u73c0\u5c14\u5728\u4ed61995 \u5e74\u7684 Biometrika<\/em> \u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4f17\u591a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u90fd\u4fdd\u6301\u6000\u7591\u751a\u81f3\u5426\u5b9a\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8981\u6c42\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u56fe\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5e94\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u95ee\u9898\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5bf9\u5927\u5bb6\u601d\u8003\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5b83\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u7528\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6307\u5bfc\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u3002\u73c0\u5c14\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e8e 2011 \u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u5956\u2014\u2014\u56fe\u7075\u5956\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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    6. \u4e2d\u56fd\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

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    <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

    \u4ece\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c31\u949f\u60c5\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f20\u7edf\u4e00\u76f4\u6d41\u4f20\u81f3\u4eca\u3002\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u66fe\u8bf4\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4ee5\u4e24\u4e2a\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u5e0c\u814a\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u903b\u8f91\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5bfb\u627e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u524d\u8005\u96c6\u4e2d\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u6b27\u51e0\u91cc\u5f97\u51e0\u4f55\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u8087\u59cb\u4e8e\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f3d\u5229\u7565\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6587\u5b66\u4f5c\u54c1\uff0c\u5982\u5c48\u539f\u7684\u300a\u5929\u95ee\u300b\u548c\u8f9b\u5f03\u75be\u6a21\u4eff\u800c\u4f5c\u7684\u8bcd\u300a\u6728\u5170\u82b1\u6162\u2022\u53ef\u601c\u4eca\u5915\u6708\u300b\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5bf9\u81ea\u7136\u73b0\u8c61\u5f88\u611f\u6027\u7684\u8ffd\u95ee\u3002\u4f5b\u6559\u4e5f\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u751f\u7d27\u5bc6\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5230\u4e86\u8fd1\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f00\u59cb\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e25\u590d\u5148\u751f\u4e8e1902 \u5e74\u7ffb\u8bd1\u4e86\u7ea6\u7ff0\u2022\u7a46\u52d2<\/span>\uff08John Stuart Mill\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u540d\u8457\u300a\u7a46\u52d2\u540d\u5b66\u300b[11]\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5377\u4e0b\u7b2c\u4e94\u7ae0\u662f\u201c\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u3001\u7b2c\u4e03\u7ae0\u662f\u201c\u8bba\u89c2\u5bdf\u8bd5\u9a8c\u201d[12]\u3002\u6709\u5982\uff0c\u6d2a\u8c26\u5148\u751f\u5e08\u627f\u5965\u5730\u5229\u903b\u8f91\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u5b66\u6d3e<\/span>\uff08logical positivism\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u83ab\u91cc\u5179\u2022\u77f3\u91cc\u514b<\/span>\uff08Moritz Schlick\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e8e1934 \u5e74\u5728\u7ef4\u4e5f\u7eb3\u5927\u5b66\u5b8c\u6210\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u9898\u4e3a\u201c\u73b0\u4ee3\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f8b\u95ee\u9898\u201d\u3002\u518d\u5982\uff0c\u91d1\u5cb3\u9716\u5148\u751f\u4e5f\u5bf9\u4f11\u8c1f\u548c\u7a46\u52d2\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u6709\u72ec\u5230\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u5230\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e5f\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u6709\u5173\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe8 \u5c48\u539f\u7684\u300a\u5929\u95ee\u300b\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u53e4\u4eba\u5bf9\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u597d\u5947\u5fc3\uff08\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u7f51\u7edc\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u6b27\u7f8e\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u5f88\u65e9\u7684\u840c\u82bd\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5185\u66fc\u57281923 \u5e74\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u53c8\u5982 Jerome Cornfield \u7b49\u4eba\u4e8e 1959 \u5e74\u5173\u4e8e\u5438\u70df\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u518d\u5982 William Cochran \u5bf9\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5219\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u6000\u7591\u751a\u81f3\u654c\u610f\uff1b\u4ec5\u6709\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65e9\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u5f88\u96f6\u6563\u3001\u4e0d\u6210\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002\u9c81\u5bbe\u5728 Cochran \u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e9b\u5e94\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u548c\u5f88\u591a\u5927\u5bb6\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u5965\u5999\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5145\u6ee1\u654c\u610f\u7684\u6c1b\u56f4\u4e2d\uff0c\u8270\u96be\u5730\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u575a\u6301\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u57f9\u517b\u4e86\u51e0\u4ee3\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u3002\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u6301\u7eed\u5230\u9c81\u5bbe\u9000\u4f11\u3001\u53d7\u8058\u5230\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u4e18\u6210\u6850\u6570\u5b66\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5404\u5927\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u90fd\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u803f\u76f4\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5148\u9a71\uff0c\u65e9\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u8fd8\u662f\u51b7\u95e8\u8bdd\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u575a\u6301\u4e86\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u4eb2\u5386\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4ece\u51b7\u95e8\u53d1\u5c55\u6210\u70ed\u70b9\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u9c81\u5bbe\u548c\u73c0\u5c14\u5b66\u6d3e\u76f8\u4e92\u6279\u8bc4\u5bf9\u65b9\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u803f\u76f4\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u9c81\u5bbe\u548c\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u5e76\u884c\u800c\u4e0d\u6096\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u98ce\u683c\u72ec\u7279\u3001\u601d\u60f3\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u5e94\u9080\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5de5\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5e94\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u5927\u4f1a<\/span>\uff08 International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics\uff0c 2011\uff09<\/span>\u4f5c\u4e00\u5c0f\u65f6\u5927\u4f1a\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u803f\u76f4\u8fd8\u57f9\u517b\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u3001\u4ece\u4e8b\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u62c5\u4efb\u6559\u804c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6d3b\u8dc3\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u548c\u5317\u7f8e\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u754c\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u82e5\u5e72\u4e3b\u6d41\u6742\u5fd7\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u8005\u548c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5f15\u9886\u8005\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u6211\u7b80\u5355\u8bc4\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e0b\u803f\u76f4\u6559\u6388\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe9 \u5b66\u672f\u754c\u7684\u201c\u56db\u4e16\u540c\u5802\u201d\uff1a\u803f\u76f4\uff08\u53f3\u4e8c\uff09\u3001\u5b66\u751f\u90ed\u5efa\u534e\uff08\u5de6\u4e8c\uff0c\u4e1c\u5317\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u526f\u6821\u957f\uff09\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u6731\u6587\u5723\uff08\u53f3\u4e00\uff0c\u4e1c\u5317\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u4e0e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u9662\u957f\uff09\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u738b\u9e4f\u98de\uff08\u5de6\u4e00\uff0c\u4e1c\u5317\u8d22\u7ecf\u5927\u5b66\u8bb2\u5e08\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n

    6.1 \u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u91cc\u6709\u4e2a\u5f88\u6709\u540d\u7684 Yule-Simpson \u6096\u8bba\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u5ffd\u7565\u67d0\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u51fa\u73b0\u9006\u53cd\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u67d0\u836f\u5bf9\u7537\u6027\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u5bf9\u5973\u6027\u4e5f\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5408\u5e76\u7537\u548c\u5973\u540e\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u8be5\u836f\u5bf9\u603b\u4f53\u65e0\u6548\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba\u4e0e\u524d\u9762\u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u6709\u4e9b\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5f52\u7eb3\u4e0d\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba\u4e2d\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08confounder\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002\u524d\u9762\u9c81\u5bbe\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u65e0\u6df7\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u624d\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/span>
    <\/section>\n
    \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u9700\u8981\u5173\u4e8e\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u5224\u65ad\u67d0\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u5426\u662f\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u53c8\u9700\u8981\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u70b9\u5faa\u73af\u8bba\u8bc1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u3002\u803f\u76f4\u63a2\u8ba8\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u5224\u65ad\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5224\u65ad\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u662f\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u786e\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u73c0\u5c14\u5728\u300a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u300b<\/span>\uff08The Book of Why<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\uff0c\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u9769\u547d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4eae\u70b9\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4ed6\u58f0\u79f0\u5229\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u7f8e\u89e3\u51b3\u5224\u65ad\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u803f\u76f4\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f25\u8865\u4e86\u73c0\u5c14\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u7ae0\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B<\/em> \u4e0a[13]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n

    6.2 \u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba\u548c\u51c6\u5219\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4f20\u9012\u6027<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe10\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba\u7684\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6b64\u56fe\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u5403\u836f\u4e0e\u5426\u201d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u548c\u201c\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u201d\u90fd\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u201c\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u201d\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u201c\u5403\u836f\u4e0e\u5426\u201d\u5bf9\u201c\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u201d\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff1a\u201c\u5403\u836f\u4e0e\u5426\u201d\u5bf9\u201c\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u201d\u6709\u6b63\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u201c\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u201d\u5bf9\u201c\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u201d\u6709\u6b63\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u201c\u5403\u836f\u4e0e\u5426\u201d\u5bf9\u201c\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u201d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5374\u662f\u8d1f\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684 Yule-Simpson \u6096\u8bba\uff0c \u5b83\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u201c\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u201d\u540c\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u201c\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u201d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u201c\u5403\u836f\u4e0e\u5426\u201d\u5bf9\u201c\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u201d\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u90a3\u60c5\u51b5\u5219\u66f4\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u6096\u8bba\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u3002\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fe\u548c\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u201c\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u201d\u6709\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u5f88\u96be\u89c2\u6d4b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5e38\u5e38\u9009\u62e9\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u827e\u6ecb\u75c5\u7684\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u662f\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u5bff\u547d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9700\u8981\u7b49\u5f85\u5f88\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u88ab\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u91c7\u7528\u514d\u75ab\u529b\u7ec6\u80de CD4 \u6570\u76ee\u4f5c\u4e3a\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u836f\u7269\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8 CD4 \u6570\u76ee\u5c31\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4e86 Yule-Simpson \u6096\u8bba\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c \u803f\u76f4\u6559\u6388\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u201c\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba\u201d\uff1a\u867d\u7136\u65b0\u836f\u5bf9\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6709\u6b63\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c \u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u5bf9\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u4e5f\u6709\u6b63\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u65b0\u836f\u5bf9\u7ec8\u70b9\u6307\u6807\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u8d1f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u8fd9\u9879\u6210\u679c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5bf9\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u6709\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\u300a\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u836f\u7269\u300b<\/span>\uff08Deadly Medicine<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u533b\u751f\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u662f\uff0c\u5fc3\u5f8b\u5931\u5e38\u662f\u731d\u6b7b\u7684\u5371\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u7ea0\u6b63\u5fc3\u5f8b\u5931\u5e38\u4f5c\u4e3a\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7814\u5236\u7684\u836f\u7269\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7ea0\u6b63\u5fc3\u5f8b\u5931\u5e38\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u98df\u54c1\u836f\u54c1\u76d1\u7763\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u7684\u6279\u51c6\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8be5\u836f\u7269\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6570\u4e07\u4eba\u731d\u6b7b\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u8d8a\u5357\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u58eb\u5175\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u540e\u679c\u3002\u51e0\u4f4d\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0cRoss Prentice, \u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u2022 \u9c81\u5bbe\uff0cSteffen Lauritzen[14]\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u90fd\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u7684\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u51c6\u5219\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u907f\u514d\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba\u3002\u803f\u76f4\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6f84\u6e05\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51c6\u5219\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u6096\u8bba\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u7ae0\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B<\/em> \u4e0a[15]\uff0cTyler VanderWeele \u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u7efc\u8ff0\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d[16]\uff0c\u56de\u987e\u5e76\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e86\u803f\u76f4\u6559\u6388\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u803f\u76f4\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7cbe\u6df1\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u533b\u5b66\u4e0a\u6709\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd8\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u6709\u6240\u589e\u8fdb\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\uff1a\u5982\u679c  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u4e14  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u90fd\u662f\u5355\u8c03\u589e\u51fd\u6570\uff0c \u90a3\u4e48  <\/span><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u5173\u4e8e  <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg><\/span>  \u7684\u5355\u8c03\u589e\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u6027\u548c\u9690\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f20\u9012\u6027<\/span>\uff08transitivity\uff09<\/span>\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u5e38\u5e38\u4f9d\u8d56\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f20\u9012\u6027\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6839\u57fa\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u3002\u803f\u76f4\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5960\u57fa\u6027\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8457\u540d\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u9676\u54f2\u8f69\uff0c\u4e5f\u5bf9\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u5728\u535a\u5ba2\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u201c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4f55\u65f6\u53ef\u4f20\u9012\uff1f\u201d<\/span>\uff08When is correlation transitive?\uff09<\/span>[17]\uff0c<\/span>\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u4e0d\u7b49\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4f20\u9012\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7ed3\u679c\u8fd8\u4e0d\u7b97\u4e30\u5bcc\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
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    6.3 \u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u63a2\u7d22<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

    \u5982\u4e0a\u9762\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u73c0\u5c14\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\uff1f\u803f\u76f4\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5206\u89e3\u548c\u5c40\u90e8\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5316\u7e41\u4e3a\u7b80\uff0c \u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u5730\u6784\u5efa\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5728\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u786e\u5b9a\u53d8\u91cf\u95f4\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u6700\u5c11\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5c06\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u56fe\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u56fe\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u6709\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u7ae0\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9886\u57df\u7684\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a <\/span>Journal of Machine Learning Research<\/em> \u4e0a[18]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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    7. \u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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    <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

    \u867d\u7136\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fd8\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u56de\u5e94\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u5411\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u8fd8\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5730\u5e94\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u4f5c\u9700\u8981\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u548c\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fd8\u5728\u8349\u521b\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u9c81\u5bbe\u8fd8\u662f\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c \u90fd\u6709\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u601d\u8003\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u67d0\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u662f\u63a2\u7d22\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u867d\u7136\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u5b66\u4e60\u5bf9\u63a2\u7d22\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8fd8\u4e0d\u591f\u4e30\u5bcc\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u601d\u60f3\u754c\u90fd\u6709\u66f4\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u601d\u8fa8\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u548c\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u6240\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u7684\u3002\u66f4\u5e7f\u5730\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e30\u5bcc\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5927\u6709\u88e8\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8eab\u5904\u5927\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u6d77\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u6316\u6398\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\u4f46\u662f\u5f15\u4eba\u5165\u80dc\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60<\/span>\uff08deep learning\uff09<\/span>\u800c\u83b7\u5f97 2018 \u5e74\u56fe\u7075\u5956\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ea6\u4e66\u4e9a\u2022\u672c\u5e0c\u5965<\/span>\uff08Yoshua Bengio\uff09<\/span>\u6700\u8fd1\u8f6c\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e24\u79cd\u601d\u60f3\u8fc7\u53bb\u867d\u7136\u72ec\u7acb\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u76f8\u4e92\u4ea4\u7ec7\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u65b0\u7684\u6210\u679c[19]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u4ece\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e00\u76f4\u548c\u5f88\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u53d1\u751f\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08instrumental variable\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u662f\u63a2\u6c42\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6709\u529b\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u53c8\u5982\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u5206\u6790<\/span>\uff08factor analysis\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u9690\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6709\u529b\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5927\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53d7\u5230\u5e94\u7528\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u542f\u53d1\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5e38\u5e38\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e86\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6210\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6e90\u5934\u6d3b\u6c34\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5bf9\u89c4\u8303\u6211\u56fd\u836f\u7269\u6279\u51c6\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u4e5f\u5927\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684 Prentice \u548c\u9c81\u5bbe\uff0c\u90fd\u5e38\u5e38\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u98df\u54c1\u836f\u54c1\u76d1\u7763\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u505a\u54a8\u8be2\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u836f\u6548\u65b9\u9762\u9047\u5230\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u6211\u56fd\u7684\u751f\u7269\u533b\u836f\u884c\u4e1a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u817e\u98de\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5c06\u53d1\u6325\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u518d\u5982\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9876\u7ea7\u9ad8\u6821\u7684\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u5b66\u9662\u6216\u8005\u653f\u5e9c\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u798f\u5229\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f18\u5316\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u8d77\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u4ee5\u540e\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u8d70\u51fa\u8c61\u7259\u5854\uff0c\u627f\u62c5\u793e\u4f1a\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \u81f4\u8c22\uff1a\u90ed\u5efa\u534e\uff08\u4e1c\u5317\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u3001\u848b\u667a\u8d85\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u9a6c\u8428\u8bf8\u585e\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u3001\u82d7\u65fa\uff08\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u3001\u5f20\u4fca\u59ae\uff08\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u3001\u6f58\u6606\u5cf0\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u3001\u9ece\u6ce2\uff08\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u3001\u5218\u4e2d\u534e\uff08\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u3001\u97a0\u5ff5\u6865\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u548c\u5b81\u5c11\u9633\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u65af\u5b66\u9662\uff09\u7ed9\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5b9d\u8d35\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u7269\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u7684\u5b8b\u5b66\u5764\u6559\u6388\u4ed4\u7ec6\u9605\u8bfb\u5e76\u4fee\u6539\u4e86\u672c\u6587\u7684\u521d\u7a3f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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    \u4f5c\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u4e01\u9e4f\uff0c2004 \u5e74\u81f3 2011 \u5e74\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u83b7\u5f97\u672c\u79d1\u548c\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c2015 \u5e74\u83b7\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c2016 \u5e74\u8d77\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\uff0c2021 \u5e74\u664b\u5347\u4e3a\u526f\u6559\u6388\u3002\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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    \u6ce8\u91ca<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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    1.A. Gelman and A. Vehtari, What are the most important statistical ideas of the past 50 years? \u89c1https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2012.00174\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f5c\u8005\u66fe\u83b7\u5f97\u5e74\u8f7b\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u5956 COPSS \u5956\u7ae0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    2.\u201c[T]he sole end of science is the honor of the human mind.\u201d \u2014\u2014 Carl Jacobi\uff08\u5361\u5c14\u2022 \u96c5\u53ef\u6bd4\uff09<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    3.\u5185\u66fc\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u662f\u7528\u6ce2\u5170\u8bed\u5199\u6210\u7684\u30021990 \u5e74\uff0cD. M. Dabrowska \u548c T. P. Speed \u5c06\u8bba\u6587\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u82f1\u6587\uff0c\u9898\u76ee\u662f<\/span>On the Applications of the Theory of Probability to Agricultural Experiments\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e Statistical Science\u3002\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u65e9\u5c31\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5c06\u5b83\u6570\u5b66\u5316\u3001\u4e14\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u7528\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\uff0c\u5185\u66fc\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u9996\u6b21\u3002\u5185\u66fc\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u3001\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3001\u62bd\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\u548c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u8303\u5f0f\u3002\u6211\u56fd\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u548c\u6570\u7406\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u8bb8\u5b9d\u9a04\u6559\u6388\u662f\u5185\u66fc\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u6307\u5bfc\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    4.\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6587\u732e\u7efc\u8ff0\u662f\uff1aLi, X. and Ding, P. (2017). General forms of finite population central limit theorems with applications to causal inference. <\/span><\/em> Journal of the American Statistical Association,112, 1759-1769\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    5.\u89c1\u5185\u66fc\u7684\u4f20\u8bb0\uff1aC. Reid (1982)<\/span>, Neyman – From Life\u3002\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u54e5\u767d\u5c3c\u548c\u5185\u66fc\u90fd\u662f\u6ce2\u5170\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    6.\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4f4d\u53d7\u5185\u66fc\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u662f\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 Trygve Haavelmo\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u5728\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u57281989 \u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u83b7\u5956\u611f\u8a00\u4e2d\u8c08\u53ca\u5185\u66fc\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd: https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/economic-sciences\/1989\/haavelmo\/facts\/\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    7.\u6587\u7ae0\u662f Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983) The central role of the propensity score in <\/span>observational studies for causal effects, Biometrika, 70, 41-55\u3002\u5728\u7eaa\u5ff5 Biometrika \u7b2c\u4e00\u767e\u671f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u5f15\u7528\u6570\u5728\u8be5\u6742\u5fd7\u6392\u540d\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff1b\u53c2\u770b Titterington (2013) Biometrika highlights from volume 28 onwards, Biometrika, 100, 17-73\u3002\u622a\u81f3\u5199\u4f5c\u672c\u6587\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0cGoogle Scholar \u663e\u793a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u4e8628392 \u6b21\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e86\u4e4b\u524d\u5f15\u7528\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6587\u7ae0 Liang and Zeger (1986) Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models, Biometrika, 73, 13\u201322\uff08Google Scholar \u663e\u793a\u5f15\u7528\u4e8618345 \u6b21\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u6d3b\u8dc3\u6027\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0cBiometrika \u521b\u520a\u4e8e 1901 \u5e74\uff0c\u662f\u6700\u65e9\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7edf\u8ba1\u6742\u5fd7\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    8.\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u662f Rubin (2006) Matched Sampling for Causal Effects\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u672c\u662f Imbens and Rubin (2016) Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences: An Introduction\u3002\u4e24\u4e66\u5747\u7531\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u51fa\u7248\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    9.\u6bd4\u5982 A. P. Dempster \u5c31\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u5411\u56fe\u6765\u8868\u793a\u8054\u5408\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff1a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c \u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fb9\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u662f: Dempster, A.P. (1972) Covariance selection. Biometrics, 157-175\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    10.\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\uff1aPearl (1995) Causal diagrams for empirical research. Biometrika, 82, 669-688.\u4ed6\u7684\u4e13\u8457\u662f\uff1aPearl (2009) Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference, \u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    11.\u6b64\u4e66\u82f1\u6587\u539f\u540d\u662f<\/span> A System of Logic\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u7ffb\u8bd1\u8fc7\u6765\u662f\u300a\u4e00\u4e2a\u903b\u8f91\u4f53\u7cfb\u300b\uff0c\u4e25\u590d\u5148\u751f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u903b\u8f91\u5b66\u201d\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u201c\u540d\u5b66\u201d\uff0c \u8fd9\u4e00\u5b66\u6d3e\u5174\u8d77\u4e8e\u5148\u79e6\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u4eba\u7269\u6709\u516c\u5b59\u9f99\u7b49\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u5728\u82f1\u8bed\u4e16\u754c\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc7\u5f88\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e94\u6761\u201c\u7a46\u52d2\u65b9\u6cd5\u201d\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u5f52\u7eb3\u63a8\u7406\u4e2d\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u56e0\u679c\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u51c6\u5219\u3002\u4e25\u590d\u5148\u751f\u662f\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u4ece\u201c\u4eac\u5e08\u5927\u5b66\u5802\u201d\u66f4\u540d\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u6821\u957f\uff0c\u4e5f\u66fe\u4efb\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b66\u6821\u957f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    12.\u539f\u4e66\u8fd9\u7ae0\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u662f\u201cOn observation and experiment\u201d\u3002\u6309\u7167\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u201cexperiment\u201d\u7edf\u4e00\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\u3002\u524d\u9762\u7528\u5230\u7684\u201c\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u201d\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u201cclinical trial\u201d\u3002\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\u548c\u201c\u8bd5\u9a8c\u201d\u7684\u610f\u601d\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5dee\u522b\u4e0d\u5927\uff1b\u4e2d\u6587\u82f1\u6587\u7686\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    13.Geng (1992) pp. 585-593; Geng and Asano (1993), pp. 741\u2013747; Guo and Geng (1995), pp. 263-267; Geng, Guo and Fung (2002), pp. 3-15; Ma, Xie and Geng (2006), pp. 127-133\u30023.<\/span><\/p>\n

    14.Prentice \u66fe\u83b7\u5f97\u5e74\u8f7b\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u5956 COPSS \u5956\u7ae0\uff0c\u7ec8\u8eab\u6210\u5c31\u5956\u201c\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u8bb2\u5ea7\u201d\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u533b\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\u3002\u9c81\u5bbe\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u66fe\u83b7\u5f97\u7ec8\u8eab\u6210\u5c31\u5956\u201c\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u8bb2\u5ea7\u201d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\u3002Lauritzen \u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u5b66\u4f1a\u9662\u58eb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    15.Chen, Geng and Jia (2007), pp. 911-932; Ju and Geng (2010), pp. 129-142; Jiang, Ding and Geng (2016) pp. 829-848\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    16.\u6587\u7ae0\u662f VanderWeele (2013) Surrogate measures and consistent surrogates. <\/span><\/em>Biomet69, 561-565\u3002VanderWeele \u66fe\u83b7COPSS \u5956\u7ae0\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    17.https:\/\/terrytao.wordpress.com\/2014\/06\/05\/when-is-correlation-transitive\/<\/span><\/p>\n

    18.Xie and Geng (2008), pp. 459-483; Ma, Xie and Geng (2008), pp. 2847-2880; He and Geng (2008), pp. 2523-2547; Liu et al. (2020)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    19.\u672c\u5e0c\u5965\u7684\u6587\u7ae0 Towards Causal Representation Learning \u51fa\u73b0\u5728 https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2102.11107\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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    \uff08\u6ce8\u91ca\u53ef\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/strong>\u67e5\u770b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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    \u6b22\u8fce\u52a0\u5165\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u793e\u533a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h2>\n

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    \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u5df2\u7ecf\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u5b66\u754c\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4e3a\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u3001\u666e\u53ca\u63a8\u5e7f\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\u643a\u624b\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8fde\u7eed\u4e3e\u529e\u4e86\u4e24\u5b63\u300c\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausalAI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u300d\uff0c\u7814\u8bfb\u91cd\u8981\u8bba\u6587\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5178\u6559\u6750\u3002\u672c\u6b21\u6d3b\u52a8\u662f\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u7684\u6536\u5b98\u8bb2\u5ea7\uff0c\u6d3b\u52a8\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4ecd\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f00\u653e\u62a5\u540d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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    \u76ee\u524d\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u793e\u533a\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7600\u4f4d\u6d77\u5185\u5916\u76f8\u5173\u79d1\u7814\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u4e00\u7ebf\u4ece\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e5f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e3b\u9898\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u6df1\u5ea6\u5730\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u5c31\u5feb\u52a0\u5165\u6211\u4eec\u5427\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n


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