{"id":28416,"date":"2021-08-29T15:52:20","date_gmt":"2021-08-29T07:52:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=28416"},"modified":"2021-08-29T15:52:20","modified_gmt":"2021-08-29T07:52:20","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e7%89%a9%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6-%e9%9b%86%e6%99%ba%e7%99%be%e7%a7%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=28416","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66 | \u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9<\/span>\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66<\/span>\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b0\u9c9c\u4e8b\uff1b\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c<\/span>\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229 Daniel Bernoulli<\/span>\u6700\u65e9\u63d0\u51fa\u57fa\u4e8e\u6548\u7528 Utility\u7684\u504f\u597d\u3002\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba Neoclassical Economic Theory\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u524d\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388<\/span>\u6b27\u6587\u00b7\u8d39\u6b47\u5c14 Irving Fisher<\/span>\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u66fe\u53d7\u8bad\u4e8e\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6<\/span>\u7ea6\u897f\u4e9a\u00b7\u5a01\u62c9\u5fb7\u00b7\u5409\u5e03\u65af Josiah Willard Gibbs<\/span>\u3002<\/span>\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u626c\u00b7\u5ef7\u4f2f\u6839 Jan Tinbergen\u5728\u83b1\u987f\u5927\u5b66 Leiden University\u548c\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u57c3\u4f26\u8d39\u65af\u7279 Paul Ehrenfest\u4e00\u8d77\u5b66\u4e60\u4e86\u7269\u7406\u5b66\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f00\u53d1\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5206\u6790\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u578b\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e861969\u5e74\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002\u7279\u522b\u7684\u662f\uff0cTinbergen \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u5f15\u529b\u6a21\u578b gravity model of international trade\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u4e3b\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u662f\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7531\u51e0\u4e2a\u5728<\/span>\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\u9886\u57df\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u5c06\u95ee\u9898\u7b80\u5316\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u6709\u89e3\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53d6\u5b9e\u8bc1\u6570\u636e\u6765\u5206\u6790\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e94\u7528\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u53bb\u89e3\u91ca\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u91d1\u878d\u6570\u636e\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5174\u8d77\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u63a8\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e0d\u8db3\u591f\u5145\u5206\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u7528\u4e8e\u8861\u91cf\u540c\u8d28\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7684\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u66f4\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5f02\u8d28 Heterogeneous\u4e3b\u4f53\u548c\u8fdc\u79bb\u5747\u8861\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u662f\u7531H\u00b7Eugene Stanley\u4e8e1995\u5e74\u5728Kolkata\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5728\uff08\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\uff09\u5e02\u573a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u8bba\u6587\u3002\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u57281996\u5e74\u5728\u300aPhysica A\u300b\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u3002<\/span>\u9996\u6b21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e8e1998\u5e74\u5728\u5e03\u8fbe\u4f69\u65af\u7531J\u00e1nos Kert\u00e9sz\u548cImre Kondor\u4e3e\u529e\u30022000\u5e74\uff0cr. n. Mantegna & h. e. Stanley \u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u672c\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u4e66\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b9a\u671f\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u7cfb\u5217\u5305\u62ec: \u5728\u52a0\u5c14\u5404\u7b54\u548c\u65b0\u5fb7\u91cc\u4e3e\u884cECONOPHYS-KOLKATA\u4f1a\u8bae\u3001<\/span>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5ea7\u8c08\u4f1a\u3001 ESHIA\/WEHIA\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c<\/span>\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66<\/span>\u4e25\u91cd\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e<\/span>\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\u7684\u7c7b\u63a8\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u751f\u4ea7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span>\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/span>\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9884\u6d4b\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u548c\u54c8\u4f5b-\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ad9\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5c06\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6587\u732e\u6216\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u4f18\u5148\u6743\u53ef\u80fd\u5e94\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e Emmanuel Farjoun \u548cMosh\u00e9 Machover(1983)\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u300a\u6df7\u6c8c\u5b9a\u5f8b: \u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u65b9\u6cd5 Laws of Chaos: A Probabilistic Approach to Political Economy\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u91cf\u91cd\u65b0\u6982\u5ff5\u5316\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\uff08\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8bdd\uff09\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u8f6c\u6362\u95ee\u9898 Transformation Problem\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u628a\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53ef\u4ee5\u628aL\u00e9on Walras\u548cVilfredo Pareto\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b63\u5982Bruna Ingrao\u548cGiorgio Israe\u6240\u9610\u8ff0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684<\/span>\u4e00\u822c\u5747\u8861\u7406\u8bba general equilibrium theory<\/span>\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u529b\u5b66\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u7269\u7406\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u540cIan Steedman\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u65b0\u674e\u5609\u56fe\u5b66\u6d3e neo-Ricardianism\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7269\u7406\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u6709Jean-Philippe Bouchaud\uff0cBikas K Chakrabarti\uff0cJ.Doyne Farmer\uff0cDiego Garlaschelli\uff0cDirk Helbing\uff0cJ\u00e1nos Kert\u00e9sz\uff0cFrancis Longstaff\uff0cRosario N. Mantegna\uff0cMatteo Marsili\uff0cJoseph L. McCauley\uff0cEnrico Scalas\uff0cDidier Sornette\uff0cH. Eugene Stanley\uff0cVictor Yakovenko\u548c\u5f20\u7ffc\u6210\u3002\u7279\u522b\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\u83b1\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7684 Diego Garlaschelli \u5f00\u8bbe\u7684\u4e00\u95e8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u6b63\u89c4\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff0c<\/span>\u4ed6\u5c31\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b Jan Tinbergen \u7684\u540e\u751f\u3002\u75312014\u5e749\u6708\u8d77\uff0c\u82f1\u7687\u4e66\u9662\u6b63\u5f0f\u6388\u4e88\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u9996\u4e2a\u5168\u804c\u6559\u6388\u804c\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u5de5\u5177\u662f\u901a\u5e38\u53d6\u81ea\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec\u6c14\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7406\u8bba kinetic theory of gas\uff08\u79f0\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4ea4\u6362\u6a21\u578b kinetic exchange models of markets\uff09\u3001<\/span>\u903e\u6e17 percolation\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u7528\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u5fc3\u810f\u9aa4\u505c\u7684<\/span>\u6df7\u6c8c<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u5177\u6709<\/span>\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e34\u754c\u6027<\/span>\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u7528\u4e8e\u5730\u9707\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4eba\u8bd5\u56fe\u4f7f\u7528<\/span>\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span>\u6570\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u548c<\/span>\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u7531\u8bb8\u591a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5206\u522b\u6709Murray Gell-Mann\u548c<\/span>\u514b\u52b3\u5fb7\u00b7\u827e\u5c14\u4f0d\u5fb7\u00b7\u9999\u519c Claude Elwood Shannon<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u5bf9\u4e8e\u52bf\u535a\u5f08 Potential game\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u5747\u8861\u901a\u8fc7\u9999\u519c\u71b5\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u968f\u673a\u52a8\u529b\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u5747\u8861\u6d4b\u5ea6\u76f8\u540c\uff08\u6765\u81ea\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u5409\u5e03\u65af\u6d4b\u5ea6 Gibbs measure\uff09 \uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027 Bounded Rationality\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\u201c\u6e29\u5ea6\u201d\u3001\u201c<\/span>\u71b5<\/span>\u201d\u3001\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u52bf\/<\/span>\u81ea\u7531\u80fd<\/span>\u201d\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u5df2\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u7269\u7406\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u5bf9\u5e94\u5173\u7cfb\u88ab\u6da8\u843d\u8017\u6563\u5b9a\u7406\u6210\u529f\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u662f\u5148\u9a8c\u6784\u5efa\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u73b0\u6709\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u6a21\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u53e4\u5178\u4e3b\u4e49\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u5408\u8c0b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u8bc1\u660eHuw Dixon\u7684\u201c\u5408\u8c0b\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\u201d\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\u9700\u6c42\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u97e6\u4f2f\u4f26\u5546\u54c1 Veblen good \u6216\u6709\u77ed\u671f\u6301\u7eed\u6027 Hot Hand\u8c2c\u8bba\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e70\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u4e70\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5356\u51fa\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u6210\u529f\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\u5f17\u519c\u00b7L\u00b7\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af Vernon L. Smith\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6280\u5de7\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u6027\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span>\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53\u53cd\u5bf9\u6028\u6068\u548c\u60e9\u7f5a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u611f\u6fc0\/\u5956\u52b1\u548c\u6028\u6068\/\u60e9\u7f5a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u70b9\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5409\u5e03\u65af\u5e73\u8861\u5fc5\u987b\u5728 Humanomics \u6982\u8ff0\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6Aurelio F. Bariviera\u548c\u5408\u8457\u8005\u5728\u51e0\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u6765\u81ea<\/span>\u4fe1\u606f\u8bba<\/span>\u7684\u91cf\u8bcd\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u606f\u6548\u7387\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


Zunino\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5de5\u5177: \u590d\u6742\u6027-\u71b5\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5e73\u9762\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b1b\u5361\u5c14\u5f0f\u8868\u793a\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6548\u7387\u6392\u540d\uff0c\u5e76\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u71b5\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5e73\u9762\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u4e3b\u6743\u8bc1\u5238\u8bc4\u7ea7\u516c\u53f8\u5bf9\u4e3b\u6743\u8bc1\u5238\u7684\u8bc4\u7ea7\u7ed3\u679c\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u7531 Bariviera \u7b49\u4eba\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c<\/span> \u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u5238\u4e3a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u8fd0\u7528\u590d\u6742\u71b5\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5e73\u9762\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4fe1\u7528\u8bc4\u7ea7\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u6548\u7387\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u7c7b\u4e0e\u7a46\u8fea\u7ed9\u4e88\u7684\u4fe1\u7528\u8bc4\u7ea7\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u968f\u673a\u77e9\u9635\u7406\u8bba random matrix theory\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u91d1\u878d\u76f8\u5173\u77e9\u9635\u4e2d\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u3002\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6280\u672f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4f18\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\u88ab\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982<\/span>\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\u3001<\/span>\u7ecf\u5178\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\u548c<\/span>\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u8c13\u7684<\/span>\u53e4\u5178\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66<\/span>\u3001<\/span>\u91cf\u5b50\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66<\/span>\u548c<\/span>\u91cf\u5b50\u91d1\u878d\u5b66<\/span>\uff09\uff0c<\/span>\u4ee5\u53ca\u8def\u5f84\u79ef\u5206\u8868\u8ff0\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6307\u6570 Economic Complexity Index<\/span>\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u7531\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6Cesar a. Hidalgo\u548c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Ricardo Hausmann\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ad9\u63d0\u4f9b\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6210\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u6839\u636eHausmann\u548cHidalgo\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u6cbb\u7406\u63aa\u65bd\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u4fe1\u8d37\u4fdd\u9669\u5728\u9884\u6d4b GDP \u589e\u957f\u65b9\u9762\u8981\u51c6\u786e\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e5f\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u65b9\u7a0b Black\u2013Scholes equation\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6269\u6563-\u5bf9\u6d41 diffusion-advection\u65b9\u7a0b\uff08\u89c1\u5bf9\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u6279\u5224<\/span>\uff09\u3002\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u4ee5\u6269\u5c55\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b63\u5982\u5728\u91cf\u5b50\u573a\u8bba\u4e2d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u201c\u80a5\u5c3e fat tails\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u590d\u6742\u7684\u201c\u975e\u5fae\u6270 nonperturbative\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982:\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u80a5\u5c3e\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u5176\u4ed6\u73b0\u8c61\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u9879\u6570\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u975e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u96be\u4ee5\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5f88\u5c11\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u89c6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e3b\u8981\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e3b\u6d41\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u5bf9\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7136\u3002<\/span>\u5176\u4ed6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u5305\u62ecMauro Gallegati\uff0cSteve Keen\uff0cPaul Ormerod\u548cAlan Kirman\u5bf9\u6b64\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6279\u8bc4\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\u3001\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3bVernon L. Smith\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6280\u672f\u5e76\u627f\u8bfa\u5b83\u4eec\u4f1a\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u826f\u597d\u7684\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bf9\u5b9a\u91cf\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u9886\u57df\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5b9a\u91cf\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u56f4\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u6807\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u5df2\u5efa\u7acb\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/span>\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7f29\u653e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b63\u5982\u5728\u91cf\u5b50\u573a\u8bba\u4e2d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u201c\u80a5\u5c3e\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u590d\u6742\u7684\u975e\u5fae\u6270\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u65af\u79d1\u5c14\u65af Black\u2013Scholes\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u80a5\u5c3e\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u5176\u4ed6\u73b0\u8c61\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u9879\u6570\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u975e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u96be\u4ee5\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5f88\u5c11\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u89c6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u96c6\u667a\u6587\u7ae0\u63a8\u8350<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b6630\u5e74\uff1a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u80fd\u591f\u62ef\u6551\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u5371\u673a\u5417\uff1f<\/a>
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\u5982\u4eca\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8de8\u754c\u4ea4\u6d41\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u8bb8\u80fd\u591f\u6210\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u6709\u6240\u7a81\u7834\u7684\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u77f3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f5c\u4e3a\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u9879\u76ee\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5185\u5bb9\u7531<\/span>\u5c0f\u7af9\u51c9<\/span><\/strong>\u53c2\u4e0e\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff0c<\/span>AvecSally<\/span><\/strong>\u5ba1\u6821\uff0c\u8584\u8377<\/strong><\/span>\u7f16\u8f91\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u548c\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u51c6\u5907\u4e86\u4e13\u5c5e\u7b80\u4ecb\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u4e3b\u9875\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbf\u95ee\u5176\u96c6\u667a\u767e\u79d1\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u9875\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5185\u5bb9\u90fd\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u8fd9\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6765\u81ea\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u79d1\u548c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u5206\u914d\u6709\u5ba1\u6821\u3001\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3001\u7f16\u8f91\u3001\u5ba3\u4f20\u7b49\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u79c9\u6301\uff1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ece\u6211\u800c\u6765\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5230\u6211\u4e3a\u6b62\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u8ba4\u771f\u8d1f\u8d23\u7f16\u64b0\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6761\u3002<\/span>
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\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u6027\u77e5\u8bc6\u51fa\u53d1\u4e0e\u4f19\u4f34\u540c\u884c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u52a0\u5165\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u4f7f\u767e\u79d1\u8bcd\u6761\u5185\u5bb9\u5f97\u5230\u6269\u5145\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4f4d\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u76f8\u5e94\u5956\u52b1\u4e0e\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u9875\u4e0e\u8d21\u732e\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a2\u7d22\u590d\u6742\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u610f\u53c2\u4e0e\u66f4\u52a0\u7cfb\u7edf\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u5206\u5de5\uff0c\u626b\u63cf\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u586b\u5199\u62a5\u540d\u8868\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u671f\u5f85\u4f60\u7684\u52a0\u5165\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n


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