{"id":28539,"date":"2021-08-31T22:18:12","date_gmt":"2021-08-31T14:18:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=28539"},"modified":"2021-08-31T22:18:12","modified_gmt":"2021-08-31T14:18:12","slug":"%e4%b8%81%e9%b9%8f%ef%bc%9a%e5%a4%9a%e8%a7%92%e5%ba%a6%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%be%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%8e%a8%e6%96%ad%e7%9a%84%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=28539","title":{"rendered":"\u4e01\u9e4f\uff1a\u591a\u89d2\u5ea6\u56de\u987e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u63a8\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u601d\u60f3\u53f2\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u59cb\u4e8e\u7ea6\u5c14-\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u7ecf\u7531\u9c81\u5bbe\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u968f\u673a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7b49\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u5230\u6731\u529b\u4e9a\u00b7\u73c0\u5c14\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u6b63\u6380\u8d77\u70ed\u6f6e\u3002\u672c\u6587\u6574\u7406\u81ea\u4e01\u9e4f\u8001\u5e08\u76848\u7bc7\u77ed\u6587\uff0c\u4ece\u591a\u89d2\u5ea6\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u4e8e2021\u5e743\u6708\u52307\u6708\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>\uff0c\u4ece\u57fa\u7840\u548c\u5b9e\u64cd\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u7cbe\u8bfb\u4e24\u672c\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u6559\u6750\uff0c\u7814\u8ba8\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u524d\u6cbf\u6587\u732e\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u5f00\u653e\u62a5\u540d\u4e2d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7600\u4f4d\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u5b66\u8005\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u8be6\u60c5\u89c1\u6587\u672b\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u4e5f\u5728\u7b79\u5907\u4e2d\uff0c\u656c\u8bf7\u671f\u5f85\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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1. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u4ece Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox \u8bb2\u8d77<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
2. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff1aRubin Causal Model (RCM) \u548c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
3. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e09\uff1aR. A. Fisher \u548c J. Neyman \u7684\u5206\u6b67<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
4. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u56db\uff1a\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u548c\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
5. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e94\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u56fe (Causal Diagram)<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
6. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u516d\uff1a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff08instrumental variable\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
7. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e03\uff1aLord\u2019s Paradox<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
8. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u516b\uff1a\u5438\u70df\u662f\u5426\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\uff1fFisher versus Cornfield<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n


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1. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ece Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox \u8bb2\u8d77<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5411\u522b\u4eba\u4ecb\u7ecd\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad<\/span>\uff08causal inference\uff09<\/span>\u7684\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\uff1a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u7edf\u8ba1\u8fd8\u80fd\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\uff1f\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u80fd\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\uff1f\u76f4\u63a5\u7ed9\u51fa\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5192\u9669\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u6211\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u4e00\u4e9b\u7bc7\u5e45\u6765\u9610\u8ff0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span>
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\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u9762\u4e0a\u80fd\u591f\u4e70\u5230\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4ec5\u6709 2011 \u5e74\u56fe\u7075\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b Judea Pearl \u7684 <\/span>Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference<\/span><\/strong>\u3002Harvard \u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6 Donald Rubin \u548c \u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 Guido Imbens \u5408\u8457\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u5386\u65f6\u591a\u5e74\u4ecd\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\uff1bHarvard \u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6 James Robins \u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u4e5f\u5728\u5199\u4e00\u672c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\uff0c\u672c\u4e66\u76ee\u524d\u53ea\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8fd8\u672a\u51fa\u7248\u3002\u6211\u672c\u4eba\u5b66\u4e60\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u662f\u4ece Judea Pearl \u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u5165\u624b\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u6666\u6da9\u96be\u61c2\uff0c\u5b9e\u5728\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5165\u95e8\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u3002Donald Rubin \u5bf9 Judea Pearl \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08causal diagram\uff09<\/span>\u975e\u5e38\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\u675c\u7edd\u4f7f\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6211\u672c\u4eba\u867d\u7136\u8111\u4e2d\u4e60\u60ef\u7528\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd8\u662f\u66f4\u504f\u597d Donald Rubin \u7684\u98ce\u683c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5165\u95e8\u8005\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u8282\uff0c\u5148\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f15\u8fdb\u65b0\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7b26\u53f7\u548c\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5929\u624d\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u65f6\uff0c\u9996\u6b21\u5f15\u8fdb\u4e86\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u548c\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e86\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u79f0\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u5e03\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u6709\u4e9b\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 Arthur Dempster \u6559\u6388\u8bf4\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u9ad8\u65af\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u4f3c\u7136\uff0c\u6709\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6216\u8005\u4fe1\u4ef0\u63a8\u65ad<\/span>\uff08fiducial inference\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6210\u5206\u3002\u9ad8\u65af\u90a3\u91cc\u7684 \u201c\u7edf\u8ba1\u201d \u662f\u5173\u4e8e \u201c\u8bef\u5dee\u201d \u7684\u7406\u8bba<\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u662f \u201c\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u201d \u52a0\u201c\u968f\u673a\u8bef\u5dee\u201d\u3002\u5927\u7ea6\u5728 100 \u591a\u5e74\u524d\uff0cFrancis Galton \u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u7236\u6bcd\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u5b50\u5973\u8eab\u9ad8\u7684 \u201c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c<\/span>\uff08\u5411\u5747\u503c\uff09<\/span>\u56de\u5f52\u201d \u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u4ed6\u7528\u7684\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u201c\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u201c\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u201d \u2014 \u7528\u4e8e\u523b\u753b\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u7269\u7406\u673a\u5236\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\uff0cKarl Pearson \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u201d<\/span>\uff08correlation coefficient\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u540e\u4e16\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u662f\u5173\u4e8e \u201c\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u201d \u7684\u7406\u8bba<\/strong>\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5173\u4e8e \u201c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong>\u201d \u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u7a00\u5c11\u3002\u636e Judea Pearl \u8bf4\uff0cKarl Pearson \u660e\u786e\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff1b\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e3a\u6570\u4e0d\u591a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6587\u7ae0<\/span>\uff08\u5982 Rosenbaum and Rubin 1983; Pearl 1995\uff09<\/span>\u90fd\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u7531 Karl Pearson \u521b\u520a\u7684 Biometrika \u4e0a\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u8bb2\u5230\u7684\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u56f0\u6270\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u6839\u672c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u5b66\u4e60\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4fbf\u662f\u7531\u6b64\u5165\u95e8\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u9ad8\u7ef4\u5217\u8054\u8868\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c \u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u6709\u540d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u53eb\u505a Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox\u3002\u6709\u6587\u732e\u79f0\uff0cKarl Pearson \u5f88\u65e9\u5c31\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba \u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u8bb8\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u4ed6\u53cd\u5bf9\u7edf\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u6b64\u6096\u8bba\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1aX\u548cY\u5728\u8fb9\u7f18\u4e0a\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cfZ\u540e\uff0c\u5728Z\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\uff0cX\u548cY\u90fd\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u3002Table 1 \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u53d6\u81eaPearl(2000)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Table 1 \u4e2d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8868\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff1a\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u662f 40 \u4eba\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u6709\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5b58\u6d3b\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5904\u7406\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u4eba\u7fa4\u6709 \u201c\u6b63\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u8868\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u8868\u662f\u5c06\u6574\u4e2a\u4eba\u7fa4\u7528\u6027\u522b\u5206\u5c42\u5f97\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8868\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u6570\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u4e0b\u9762\u4e24\u4e2a\u8868\u5bf9\u5e94\u683c\u5b50\u6570\u7684\u548c\uff1a
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\u5947\u602a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u5bf9\u7537\u6027\u6709 \u201c\u8d1f\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\uff0c\u5bf9\u5973\u6027\u4e5f\u6709 \u201c\u8d1f\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5904\u7406\u5bf9\u7537\u6027\u548c\u5973\u6027\u90fd\u6709 \u201c\u8d1f\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u5bf9\u6574\u4e2a\u4eba\u7fa4\u5374\u6709 \u201c\u6b63\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\uff1a\u6096\u8bba\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6216\u8005\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u4e0e\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u4e0e\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u4e5f\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5c06\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u6570\u4e58\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6b63\u6570\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u6096\u8bba\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7eaf\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u6096\u8bba\u53ef\u4ee5\u5199\u6210\u521d\u7b49\u6570\u5b66<\/span>\uff1b\u8fd9\u5e76\u65e0\u65b0\u5947\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u2014\u2014\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u88ab\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf \u201c\u626d\u66f2\u201d\u3002\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u201c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u201d \u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u5374\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\u3002\u9274\u4e8e Yule-Simpson \u6096\u8bba\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u4eba\u5de5\u6784\u9020\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u5c11\u7684\u5b9e\u4f8b\u6b63\u662f Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0cUC Berkeley \u7684\u8457\u540d\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6 Peter Bickel \u6559\u6388 1975 \u5e74\u5728 Science \u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u4e86 Berkeley \u7814\u7a76\u751f\u9662\u7537\u5973\u5f55\u53d6\u7387\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\uff0c\u7537\u6027\u7684\u5f55\u53d6\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5973\u6027\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u6309\u7167\u4e13\u4e1a\u5206\u5c42\u540e\uff0c\u5973\u6027\u7684\u5f55\u53d6\u7387\u5374\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7537\u6027<\/span> (Bickel \u7b49 1975)<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66<\/span> (\u5982 Rothman \u7b49 2008) <\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u8bb2\u5230 \u201c\u6df7\u6742\u504f\u501a\u201d<\/span>\uff08confounding bias\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u662f Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox\uff0c\u4e66\u4e2d\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002
<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u6709 Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox \u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5f88\u96be\u5f97\u5230\u6709\u5173\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u52a0\u4e0a\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u540e\u9762\u4f1a\u8c08\u5230\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5438\u70df\u662f\u5426\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\uff1f\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4eba\u7fa4\u662f\u5426\u5438\u70df\u505a\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u6570\u636e\u90fd\u662f\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff1a\u5373\u5438\u70df\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/span> \uff08\u6b63\u5982 Table 1 \u7684\u5408\u5e76\u8868\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5438\u70df\u4e0e\u80ba\u764c\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u65ad\u8a00 \u201c\u5438\u70df\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ed6\u65e2\u5f71\u54cd\u4e2a\u4f53\u662f\u5426\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u4e2a\u4f53\u662f\u5426\u5f97\u764c\u75c7\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u57fa\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5f97\u4eba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u80ba\u764c\uff1b\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u57fa\u56e0\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u5f97\u80ba\u764c\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5438\u70df\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u653e\u5c04\u6027\u7269\u8d28\u5bf9\u4eba\u4f53\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u94c0\u77ff\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\u5e73\u5747\u5bff\u547d\u5374\u4e0d\u6bd4\u5e38\u4eba\u77ed\uff1b\u8fd9\u662f\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u4e2d\u6709\u540d\u7684 \u201c\u5065\u5eb7\u5de5\u4eba\u6548\u5e94\u201d<\/span>\uff08healthy worker effect\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u6765\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u8bf4\u94c0\u77ff\u5de5\u4f5c\u5bf9\u5065\u5eb7\u6ca1\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u94c0\u77ff\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u8eab\u5f3a\u529b\u58ee\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728\u94c0\u77ff\u5de5\u4f5c\u5bff\u547d\u4f1a\u66f4\u957f\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u94c0\u77ff\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e0e\u5426\u4e0e\u5bff\u547d\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u653e\u5c04\u6027\u7269\u8d28\u5bf9\u4eba\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u662f\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e3e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u9610\u91ca\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u9610\u91ca\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u8bb2\u6e05\u695a\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u540e\u9762\u4f1a\u8bb2\u5230\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u7559\u4e0b\u5982\u4e0b\u601d\u8003\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n
    Table 1 \u4e2d\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u4e2d\uff0c\u7537\u6027\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5206\u522b\u4e3a\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u8fd9\u5bf9\u6096\u8bba\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u8003\u8651\u5904\u7406\u7684 \u201c\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u201d<\/span>\uff08assignment mechanism\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97P(Treatment\u2223Male)\u548c P(Treatment\u2223Female)\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  2. \n
    \u5047\u5982(X\uff0cY\uff0cZ)\u670d\u4ece\u4e09\u5143\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff0cX\u548cY\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff0cY\u548cZ\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48X\u548cZ\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff1f\uff08\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u6982\u7387\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb 09 \u5e74\u300a\u5e94\u7528\u591a\u5143\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u300b\u671f\u672b\u7b2c\u4e00\u9898\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  3. \n
    \u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u5e38\u5e38\u4f1a\u8bb2\u5404\u79cd\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6df7\u6742\u504f\u501a <\/span>\uff08confounding bias\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5165\u9662\u7387\u504f\u501a<\/span>\uff08Berkson\u2019s bias\uff09<\/span>\u7b49\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u5426\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6709\u5173\uff1f
    \u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684 \u201c\u5185\u751f\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08endogeneity\uff09<\/span>\u600e\u4e48\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1f\u5b83\u548c Yule-Simpson \u6096\u8bba\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u8054\u7cfb\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    <\/section>\n

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    \n

    <\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
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    <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
    \n

    2. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

    Rubin Causal Model (RCM) \u548c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    <\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


    <\/p>\n


    <\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \n

    \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7528\u7684\u6700\u591a\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u662f Rubin Causal Model <\/span>(RCM; Rubin 1978) <\/span>\u548c Causal Diagram <\/span>(Pearl 1995)<\/span>\u3002Pearl <\/span>(2000) <\/span>\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7b49\u4ef7\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5c31\u5e94\u7528\u6765\u770b\uff0cRCM \u66f4\u52a0\u7cbe\u786e\uff0c\u800c Causal Diagram \u66f4\u52a0\u76f4\u89c2\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u6df1\u53d7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u7684\u63a8\u5d07\u3002\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u4e3b\u8981\u8bb2 RCM\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u8bbe<\/span>\u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53 i\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u4e0e\u5426\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u53d61\uff0c\u5bf9\u7167\u53d60 <\/span>(\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5904\u7406\u53d8\u91cf\u90fd\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e8c\u503c\u7684\uff0c\u591a\u503c\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u63a8\u5e7f)<\/span>\uff1b<\/span>\u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53 i\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u8bb0 <\/span><\/span> \u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53 i\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u6216\u8005\u5bf9\u7167\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/span> (potential outcome)<\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48 <\/span><\/span>  \u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53 i \u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7597\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u8981\u4e48\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u63a5\u53d7\u5bf9\u7167\uff0c<\/span><\/span> \u4e2d\u5fc5\u7136\u7f3a\u5931\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f <\/span><\/span>\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728Z\u505a\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528 <\/span><\/span>(Average Causal Effect; ACE\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/section>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n
    \u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b49\u5f0f\u8868\u660e<\/span><\/span>\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b49\u5f0f\u7528\u5230\u4e86\u671f\u671b\u7b97\u5b50\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u6027<\/span><\/span>\uff08<\/span>\u975e<\/span><\/span>\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u7b97\u5b50\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5ea6\u91cf\u5f88\u96be\u88ab\u8bc6\u522b\uff01)<\/span>\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5f0f\u5b50\u7528\u5230\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u5316\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n
    \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c<\/span>\u8868\u793a\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u8d77\u7740\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u5f53Y\u662f\u4e8c\u503c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u5dee\u201d<\/span>\uff08risk difference; RD\uff09<\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n
    \u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u8fd8\u5e38\u7528\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u6bd4\u201d<\/span>\uff08risk ratio; RR\uff09<\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n
    \u548c\u201c\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u201d<\/span>\uff08odds ratio; OR\uff09<\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n
    \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8bb0\u53f7\u90fd\u5e26\u7740\u201cC\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f3a\u8c03\u201ccausal\u201d\u3002\u7ec6\u5fc3\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5b9a\u4e49 CRR \u548c COR \u7684\u51fa\u53d1\u70b9\u548c ACE \u4e0d\u592a\u4e00\u6837\u3002ACE \u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u6c42\u671f\u671b\u5f97\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f CRR \u548c COR \u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u5728\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u70b9\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u533a\u522b\u8fd8\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u542f\u793a\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u975e\u5e38<\/span>\u6570\u7684\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7814\u7a76\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0d\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u9700\u8981\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528\u201d<\/span><\/span>\uff08quantile treatment effect: QTE\uff09<\/span>\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n


    <\/p>\n

    \u5728\u968f\u673a\u5316\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u91cf\u4e5f\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u91cf\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u56de\u7b54\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528\u5f02\u8d28\u6027<\/span>\uff08heterogenous treatment effects\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528\u975e\u5e38\u6570\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7528\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u91cf\u523b\u753b\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span>
    <\/p>\n

    \u8fd9\u4e2a\u91cf\u523b\u753b\u7684\u662f\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1 <\/span> \u9700\u8981\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
    \n
    \u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u7559\u4e0b\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
      \n
    1. \n
      \u201c\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08identifiability\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
    2. \n
      \u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/span>\uff08randomized controlled experiment\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5904\u7406\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u80fd\u591f\u6d88\u9664 Yule-Simpson \u6096\u8bba\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
    3. \n
      <\/span> \u5728\u968f\u673a\u5316\u4e0b\u662f\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u548c\u5b83\u201c\u5bf9\u5076\u201d\u7684\u91cf\u662f Ju and Geng (2010) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff08distributional causal effect: DCE\uff09<\/span>\uff1a<\/span> \uff0c\u5728\u968f\u673a\u5316\u4e0b\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
    4. \n
      \u5373\u4f7f\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u5316\uff0c<\/span> \u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5177\u6709\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\u201d\u7684\u91cf\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u7528\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\u5e38\u5e38\u53d1\u751f\uff1a\u5173\u5fc3\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4eba\u5411\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7d22\u53d6\u7684\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53c8\u5f88\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
      \u5173\u4e8e RCM \u7684\u7248\u6743\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u505a\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u7684\u662f Jerzy Neyman \u4e8e 1923 \u5e74\u7528\u6ce2\u5170\u8bed\u5199\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u8bd5\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d<\/span>\uff08potential outcome\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u540e\u6765 Donald Rubin \u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u91cd\u65b0<\/span>\uff08\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002Donald Rubin \u65e9\u671f\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5f15\u7528 Jerzy Neyman \u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0cJerzy Neyman \u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e3a\u4eba\u6240\u77e5\u3002\u4e00\u76f4\u5230 1990 \u5e74\uff0cD. M. Dabrowska \u548c T. P. Speed \u5c06 Jerzy Neyman \u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u82f1\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u5728 Statistical Science \u4e0a\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u624d\u77e5\u9053 Jerzy Neyman \u65e9\u671f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u79f0 Neyman-Rubin Model\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982 James Heckman \u79f0\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684 Roy Model \u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u66f4\u65e9\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\u3002\u5728 Donald Rubin 2004 \u5e74\u7684 Fisher Lecture \u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u6ee1\u5730\u6279\u8bc4\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a Roy \u6700\u65e9\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u5168\u6587\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u7b26\u53f7\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff0cDonald Rubin \u7684 Fisher Lecture\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u5728 2005 \u5e74\u7684 Journal of the American Statistical Association \u4e0a\u3002\u7814\u7a76 Causal Diagram \u7684\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6bd4\u8f83\u8ba4\u53ef Donald Rubin \u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4f46\u662f Donald Rubin \u5374\u662f Causal Diagram \u7684\u575a\u5b9a\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a Causal Diagram \u5177\u6709\u8bef\u5bfc\u6027\uff0c\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u4ed6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u4ed6\u4e0eJames Heckman <\/span>\uff08\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\uff09<\/span>\uff0c Judea Pearl <\/span>\uff08\u56fe\u7075\u5956\uff09<\/span> \u548c James Robins \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6fc0\u70c8\u4e89\u8bba\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e7f\u4e3a\u6d41\u4f20\u7684\u8da3\u95fb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n
      \n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n
      \n
      <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
      \n

      3. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e09\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

      R. A. Fisher \u548c J. Neyman \u7684\u5206\u6b67<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

      \n

      <\/section>\n

      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


      <\/p>\n


      <\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      R.A.Fisher<\/span>
      <\/section>\n

      \u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u8c08\u5230\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u975e\u5e38\u5fae\u5999\uff1a\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e0b\u7684 Fisher randomization test \u548c Neyman repeated sampling procedure\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5316\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5982\u5f88\u591a\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u8bb2\u7684Fisher \u7cbe\u786e\u68c0\u9a8c \uff08Fisher exact test\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u662f Neyman \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4 \uff08confidence interval\uff09<\/span>\u7406\u8bba\u3002
      <\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6211\u521d\u5b66\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u89c9\u5f97\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u5c42\u6b21\u5c31\u591f\u4e86\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728 Guido Imbens \u548c Donald Rubin \u6240\u5199\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\uff08\u8fd8\u672a\u51fa\u7248\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u70b9\u5185\u5bb9\u653e\u5728\u4e86\u5168\u4e66\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5f15\u5b50\u3002\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bb2\u6cd5\u7684\u3002\u5e73\u65e5\u91cc\u5e38\u5e38\u542c\u5230 Donald Rubin \u8001\u7237\u5b50\u5bf9 Fisher randomization test \u7684\u63a8\u5d07\uff0c\u6211\u6e10\u6e10\u5730\u4e5f\u88ab\u4ed6\u6d17\u8111\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

      Fisher \u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u7684\u662f\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u53c8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a sharp null\uff1a <\/span>\u5766\u767d\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u6211\u89c1\u8fc7\u7684\u6700\u5947\u602a\u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u73b0\u884c\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb2\u5230\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u90fd\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u53c2\u6570\u7684\uff0c\u800c Fisher \u7684 sharp null \u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5374\u50cf\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u9700\u8981\u8bb2\u660e\u767d\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u5fc3\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c \uff08finite sample\uff09<\/strong>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u65f6\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c <\/span> \u90fd\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u89c2\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7531\u4e8e\u201c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u201d \u672c\u8eab\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u70b9\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u7406\u89e3 Fisher randomization test \u548c\u540e\u9762\u7684 Neyman repeated sampling procedure\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8bfb\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0d\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u9605\u8bfb\u4e00\u4e0b\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u62bd\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u51e0\u4e4e\u5168\u662f\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u90fd\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u91c7\u6837\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5982\u679c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u6570\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48 Fisher sharp null \u5c31\u548c\u73b0\u884c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u76f8\u6096\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a null \u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u201csharp\u201d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e86\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\u201c\u7269\u7406\u201d\u7279\u6027\u3002\u5b9a\u4e49\u5904\u7406\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5411\u91cf\u4e3a<\/span>\u7ed3\u679c\u5411\u91cf\u4e3a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u6b64\u65f6\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c\u4e0b\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236<\/strong>\u5982\u4e0b\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c <\/span><\/span> \u4e3a\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u603b\u6570\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u201c\u6761\u4ef6\u671f\u671b\u201d\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4  <\/span><\/span> \u662f\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5f3a\u8c03\u5904\u7406\u7684\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf<\/span>
      <\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u6613\u6c42\u51fa\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53c8\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5b8c\u5168\u6765\u81ea\u968f\u673a\u5316\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u201c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u201d\u65b9\u6cd5 <\/span>\uff08Monte Carlo \u65b9\u6cd5\u6a21\u62df\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff09<\/span>\uff1a\u5c06\u5904\u7406\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5411\u91cf  \u8fdb\u884c\u968f\u673a\u7f6e\u6362\u5f97\u5230<\/span>\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf <\/span>\uff1b\u5982\u6b64\u91cd\u590d\u591a\u6b21n\u4e0d\u5927\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a77\u5c3d\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7f6e\u6362\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u6a21\u62df\u51fa\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u5728\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa p \u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/p>\n

      \u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\uff0cFisher randomization test \u5df2\u7ecf\u8574\u542b\u4e86 bootstrap \u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9053\u7406\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u4f8b\u63d0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


      <\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      J. Neyman<\/span><\/section>\n

      \u4e0b\u9762\u8981\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684 Neyman \u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u65e9\u4e8e Fisher \u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728 Neyman 1923 \u5e74\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5047\u5b9an\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e2d\u6709m\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u7684\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4f30\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08\u6709\u9650\uff09<\/span>\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff1a
      <\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \u4e00\u4e2a\u663e\u7136\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u662f  <\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c<\/span><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

      \u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u6784\u9020\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u5728 Neyman \u2013 Pearson \u610f\u4e49\u4e0b\u592a\u201c\u4fdd\u5b88\u201d\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u4e2a\u4f53\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u5e38\u6570\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u4f30\u8ba1\u662f\u65e0\u504f\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u901a\u5e38\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u8bb2\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4ece\u6b63\u6001\u5747\u503c\u7684\u68c0\u9a8c\u5f00\u59cb\u3002Neyman \u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86 \u7684\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u533a\u95f4\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u662f Fisher \u548c\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u5408\u7406\u8fd8\u662f Neyman \u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u7814\u7a76\u67d0\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u4e2a\u7701\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u96be\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7701\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u67d0\u4e2a\u201c\u8d85\u603b\u4f53\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5149\u9700\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u5904\u7406\u6216\u8005\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u5173\u5fc3\u8fd9\u79cd\u5904\u7406\u6216\u8005\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5927\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u524d\u8005\uff0cFisher \u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u66f4\u5408\u9002\uff0c\u540e\u8005 Neyman \u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u66f4\u5408\u9002\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u89d2\u5ea6\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5230 Fisher \u548c Neyman \u4e24\u4eba\u30021935 \u5e74\uff0cNeyman \u5411\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4f1a\u63d0\u4ea4\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u201cStatistical problems in agricultural experimentation\u201d\uff0cFisher \u548c Neyman \u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u4e89\u6267\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ece\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6559\u80b2\u6765\u770b\uff0cNeyman \u4f3c\u4e4e\u5360\u4e86\u4e0a\u98ce\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u7528\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u7ed3\u675f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. \n
        \u5728 sharp null\u4e0b\uff0cNeyman \u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0b\u6784\u9020\u7684 T \u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u548c Fisher randomization test \u6784\u9020\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u76f8\u540c\uff1f\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u540c\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
      2. \n
        Fisher randomization test \u4e2d\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 Wilcoxon \u79e9\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7b49\uff0c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
      3. \n
        \u5f53Y\u662f\u4e8c\u503c\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762 Fisher \u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\u7684 Fisher exact test\u3002\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u5b66\u4e60 potential outcome \u8fd9\u5957\u8bed\u8a00\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7406\u89e3 Fisher exact test \u662f\u6709\u4e9b\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
      4. \n
        \u8bc1\u660e<\/span><\/section>\n
        \u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
      5. \n
        \u5047\u5b9an\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d85\u603b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08super-population\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u8d85\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n
        <\/section>\n
        \u90a3\u4e48 Neyman \u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u662f\u8d85\u603b\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u65e0\u504f\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e14\u65b9\u5dee\u7684\u8868\u8fbe\u5f0f\u662f\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\uff1b\u800c sharp null \u5728\u8d85\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\u4e0d\u592a\u9002\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n


        <\/p>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n

        <\/section>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \n
        <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
        \n

        4. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u56db\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

        \u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u548c\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

        \n

        <\/section>\n

        <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u8fd9\u8282\u91c7\u7528\u548c\u524d\u9762\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8bb0\u53f7\u3002Z\u8868\u793a\u5904\u7406\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff081\u662f\u5904\u7406\uff0c0\u662f\u5bf9\u7167\uff09<\/span>\uff0cY\u8868\u793a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0cX\u8868\u793a\u5904\u7406\u524d\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5728\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027 <\/span><\/span>\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e86\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528 <\/span><\/span>
        <\/p>\n

        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u6210\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u201c\u5148\u9a8c\u7684\u201d\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0e\u7ed3\u679c\u5f3a\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8981\u5728\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u63a7\u5236\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6709\u533a\u7ec4<\/span>\uff08blocking\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027 <\/span><\/span> \u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u534f\u53d8\u91cfX\u540e\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u7684\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u624d\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u7537\u6027\u548c\u5973\u6027\u4e2d\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f\u4e8b\u5148\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u5de5\u4e1a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u5316\uff0c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u80fd\u591f\u5f97\u5230\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7684\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u8c08\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u3002Jerzy Neyman \u6700\u65e9\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5c31\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u662f\u519c\u4e1a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u5199\u4e8e 1923 \u5e74\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8fdf\u8fdf\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u754c\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u6cd5\u7528\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u30021970 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0cDonald Rubin \u8bbf\u95ee UC Berkeley \u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\uff0c\u5df2\u9000\u4f11\u7684 Jerzy Neyman \u66fe\u95ee\u8d77\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u8bb0\u53f7\u7528\u5230\u8bd5\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e4b\u5916\uff1f\u6b63\u5982 Jerzy Neyman \u672c\u4eba\u6240\u8bf4 \u201cwithout randomization an experiment has little value irrespective of the subsequent treatment<\/span>\uff08\u6ca1\u6709\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4ef7\u503c\u5f88\u5c0f\uff09<\/span>\u201d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u603b\u662f\u62b1\u7740\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u6000\u7591\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u542c\u5230\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n

        \u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u8bb2 Yule-Simpson \u6096\u8bba\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u54f2\u5b66<\/span>\uff08\u53f2\uff09<\/span>\u4e0a\u7684\u4f11\u8c1f\u95ee\u9898<\/span>\uff08\u6211\u7684\u8f6c\u8ff0\uff09<\/span>\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u4ece\u6709\u9650\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u56e0\u679c\u5f8b\uff1f\u8fd9\u7684\u786e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6700\u540e\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5fb7\u56fd\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5eb7\u5fb7\u4e3a\u8c03\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6d3e<\/span>\uff08\u4f11\u8c1f\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5927\u9646\u7406\u6027\u6d3e<\/span>\uff08\u83b1\u5e03\u5c3c\u5179-\u6c83\u5c14\u592b\uff09<\/span>\u800c\u5199\u4e86\u5de8\u8457\u300a\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7406\u6027\u6279\u5224\u300b\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u6000\u7591\u8bba\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u4f11\u8c1f\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u6000\u7591\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5305\u62ec\u56e0\u679c\u5f8b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5eb7\u5fb7\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u201c\u89e3\u51b3\u201d\u4f11\u8c1f\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6000\u7591\u8bba\u8005\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u53cd\u9a73\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u4e3a\u73b0\u884c\u4e00\u5207\u7406\u8bba\u8d77\u5230\u8b66\u793a\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ece\u8fc7\u5ea6\u54f2\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u8c08\u8bba\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4ece\u524d\u9762\u7684\u8bf4\u660e\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u662f<\/span>\u201c\u67d0\u79cd\u201d\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u201d<\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u53ea\u8ba8\u8bba<\/span>\u201c\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u201d<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u8ba8\u8bba<\/span>\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u201d<\/strong>\u3002\u524d\u8005\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6570\u636e\u8bc1\u660e\u6216\u8005\u8bc1\u4f2a\u7684\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u662f\u5c5e\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u3002\u7528\u79d1\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u6ce2\u666e\u7684\u8bdd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\u662f\u201c\u731c\u60f3\u4e0e\u53cd\u9a73\u201d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1a\u201c\u731c\u60f3\u201d\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u518d\u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u5982\u6b64\u5faa\u73af\u5373\u79d1\u5b66\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u4e0b\u9762\u8c08\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b<\/strong>\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u5207\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u6240\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7b54\u6848\u662f\uff1a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\uff0c\u5373 <\/span>\u3002\u5728\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u4e0b\uff0cACE\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a<\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \u4ece\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e24\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u77e9E{Y|X, Z=z}(z=0,1). \u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56de\u5f52\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u8d4b\u4e88\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u542b\u4e49\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u5b9a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u548c\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b <\/span><\/span> \u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u5c31\u8868\u793a\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5bb9\u6613\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\u4eba\u4eec\u6bd4\u8f83\u503e\u5411\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u5047\u5b9a\u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u5e38\u6570\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5904\u7406\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861<\/span>\uff08unbalance\uff09<\/span>\u6ca1\u6709\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u5728\u5bf9\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u5916\u63a8<\/span>\uff08extrapolation\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6761\uff0c\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u5728 Donald Rubin \u65e9\u671f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\uff0c\u63a8\u5d07\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u201c\u5339\u914d\u201d<\/span>\uff08matching\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u63a5\u53d7\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u63a5\u53d7\u5bf9\u7167\uff1b\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u4ece\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u548c\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u4e2d\u6bd4\u8f83\u201c\u63a5\u8fd1\u201d\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u8fdb\u884c\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd1\u4f3c\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u201c\u63a5\u8fd1\u201d\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u9879\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6027\u522b\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u5c06\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u7537\u6027\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u7537\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u5339\u914d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u89c2\u6d4b\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7ef4\u6570\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u5339\u914d\u5c31\u5f88\u96be\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6e10\u8fd1\u7406\u8bba\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5339\u914d\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6536\u655b\u901f\u5ea6\u968f\u7740\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7ef4\u6570\u7684\u589e\u9ad8\u800c\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u8870\u51cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u540e\u6765 Paul Rosenbaum \u5230 Harvard \u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u8bfb Ph.D.\uff0c\u5728 Donald Rubin \u7684\u8bfe\u4e0a\u95ee\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e24\u4eba\u5408\u4f5c\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u540d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4e8e 1983 \u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u5728 Biometrika \u4e0a\uff1a\u201cThe central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects\u201d\u3002\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a <\/span> \u5bb9\u6613\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u5728\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b83\u6ee1\u8db3\u6027\u8d28 <\/span> <\/span>\uff08\u5728\u6570\u636e\u964d\u7ef4\u7684\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\uff0c\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u5145\u5206\u964d\u7ef4\u201d\uff0csufficient dimension reduction\uff09 <\/span>\u548c <\/span><\/span>\uff08\u7ed9\u5b9a\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6839\u636e\u524d\u9762\u7684\u63a8\u5bfc\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u6709 ACE=E[E(Y|e(X), Z=1)]-E[E(Y|e(X),Z=0)] \u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u662f\u4e00\u7ef4\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u5b83\u5206\u5c42 <\/span>\uff08Rosenbaum \u548c Rubin \u5efa\u8bae\u5206\u6210 5 \u5c42\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u8fde\u7eed\u7248\u672c\u7684\u5206\u5c42\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u4f30\u8ba1\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u5206\u5c42\u8fd8\u662f\u52a0\u6743\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u662f Logistic \u56de\u5f52\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u6587\u732e\u8bc1\u660e\u7684\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u201c\u79bb\u5947\u201d\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u5f97\u5230\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u6e10\u8fd1\u65b9\u5dee\u6bd4\u4f7f\u7528\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5c0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u719f\u6089\u4f20\u7edf\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u5947\u602a\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5c06 Y\u5bf9 Z\u548c X\u505a\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7b80\u5355\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f55\u8981\u63a8\u8350\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5462\uff1f\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c\u8bfb\u8fc7 Rosenbaum \u548c Rubin \u539f\u59cb\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53c8\u89c9\u5f97\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u8005 logistic \u56de\u5f52\uff09<\/span>\u8db3\u77e3\uff0c\u4f55\u5fc5\u8fd9\u4e48\u590d\u6742\uff1f\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u66f4\u52a0\u5173\u5fc3\u5904\u7406\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u3002\u6309\u7167 Don Rubin \u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u6839\u636e\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u6765\u201c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u201d\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff1b\u6309\u7167\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u5c06\u4eba\u7fa4\u8fdb\u884c\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u201c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u201d\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\uff1b\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u5047\u88c5\u6ca1\u6709\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7ed3\u679c\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u602a\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u5c1d\u8bd5\u52a0\u5165\u6216\u8005\u5254\u9664\u67d0\u4e9b\u56de\u5f52\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7b26\u5408\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u6545\u4e8b\u201d\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5b9e\u5728\u592a\u666e\u904d\u4e86\uff01\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u56fa\u7136\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u5728 Y\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\u505a\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5177\u6709\u201c\u6b3a\u9a97\u6027\u201d\u7684\u6709\u504f\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u5e76\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u8bb2\u5230\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u56de\u5230\u6700\u5f00\u59cb\u7684 Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox\u3002\u7528Z\u8868\u793a\u5904\u7406<\/span>\uff081\u8868\u793a\u5904\u7406\uff0c0\u8868\u793a\u5bf9\u7167\uff09<\/span>\uff0cY\u8868\u793a\u5b58\u6d3b\u4e0e\u5426<\/span>\uff081\u662f\u8868\u793a\u5b58\u6d3b\uff0c0\u8868\u793a\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff09<\/span>\uff0cX\u8868\u793a\u6027\u522b<\/span>\uff081\u8868\u793a\u7537\u6027\uff0c0\u8868\u793a\u5973\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5904\u7406\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u7528\u6027\u522b\u8fdb\u884c\u52a0\u6743\u8c03\u6574<\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u6027\u522b\u8fdb\u884c\u52a0\u6743\u8c03\u6574<\/span>\uff08\u7531\u4e8e\u6b64\u65f6\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u4e00\u7ef4\u7684\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u548c\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u672c\u8eab\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e00\u5bf9\u5e94\uff0c\u7528\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u8c03\u6574\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u89c1\u4e0b\u9762\u95ee\u9898 1\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u77e9\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u662f\u5426\u6839\u636e\u6027\u522b\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5f53 <\/span><\/span> \u65f6\uff0c \u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u76f8\u5408\u4f30\u8ba1\uff1b\u5f53<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u65f6\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u76f8\u5408\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u9009\u62e9\u54ea\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u5462\uff1f\u5230\u6b64\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u4e9b\u4f3c\u662f\u800c\u975e<\/span>\uff08\u9009\u62e9\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\uff1f\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u8bf7\u542c\u4e0b\u56de\u5206\u89e3\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u56fe<\/span>\uff08causal diagram\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u7559\u4e0b\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. \n
          \u5982\u679cX\u662f\u4e8c\u503c\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u5982\u6027\u522b\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5339\u914d\u6216\u8005\u503e\u5411\u7684\u5206\u90fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf:<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u4e2d\u975e\u5e38\u57fa\u672c\uff0c\u5373\u6839\u636e\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u5c42\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u5728\u540e\u9762\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e2d\u5c06\u8bb2\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u88ab Judea Pearl \u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u201d<\/span>\uff08backdoor criterion\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
        2. \n
          \u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c<\/span><\/section>\n
          <\/section>\n
          \u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u62bd\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u7684 Horvitz-Thompson \u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7684\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u9006\u6982\u52a0\u6743\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u201d<\/span>\uff08inverse probability weighting estimator; IPWE\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
        3. \n
          \u76f4\u89c2\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u4f1a\u66f4\u597d\uff1f\u60f3\u60f3\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u7684\u6743\u8861<\/span>\uff08bias-variance tradeoff\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
          \u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08ignorability\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u505a\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u6587\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u7ffb\u8bd1\u5b58\u5728\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 Wooldridge \u7684 Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data \u7684\u4e2d\u8bd1\u672c\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u201d\u88ab\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u201d\u3002\u5b50\u66f0\uff1a\u201c\u540d\u4e0d\u6b63\uff0c\u5219\u8a00\u4e0d\u987a\uff1b\u8a00\u4e0d\u987a\uff0c\u5219\u4e8b\u4e0d\u6210\u3002\u201d\u5728 Rubin<\/span> (1978) <\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u63d0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff1a\u5f53\u5904\u7406\u7684\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u540e\u9a8c\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u5c06\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u201c\u5ffd\u7565\u201d\u6389\u3002\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\u90fd\u662f\u6761\u4ef6\u5728\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5904\u7406\u7684\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u540e\u9a8c\u63a8\u65ad\u5462\uff1fDonald Rubin \u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u8fde Leonard Jimmie Savage \u548c Dennis Victor Lindley \u90fd\u5728\u6b64\u56f0\u60d1\u4e0d\u89e3\uff0c\u4ed6 1978 \u5e74\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u539f\u610f\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u968f\u673a\u5316\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u201d \u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u5b57\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u5728\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u7f3a\u5931\u673a\u5236\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7f3a\u5931<\/span>\uff08missing at random\uff1aMAR\uff09<\/span>\u4e14\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u4e0e\u7f3a\u5931\u673a\u5236\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f3a\u5931\u673a\u5236\u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u201d<\/span>\uff08ignorable\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u201c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u201d\u662f\u6307\uff0c\u7f3a\u5931\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u8fdb\u5165\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4f3c\u7136\u6216\u8005\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u540e\u9a8c\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

          <\/span><\/section>\n

          \n
          \n
          \n
          \n
          \n

          <\/section>\n

          <\/section>\n
          \n
          <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
          \n

          5. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u4e94\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

          \u56e0\u679c\u56fe (Causal Diagram)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

          \n

          <\/section>\n

          <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


          <\/p>\n


          <\/p>\n

          <\/p>\n

          \n

          \u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u4ecb\u7ecd <\/span>Judea Pearl \u4e8e 1995 \u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u5728 Biometrika \u4e0a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c \u201cCausal diagrams for empirical research\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662f Biometrika \u521b\u520a\u4e00\u767e\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5c11\u6709\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\uff0cSir David Cox\uff0cGuido Imbens, Donald Rubin \u548c James Robins \u7b49\u4eba\u90fd\u5bf9\u6587\u7ae0\u4f5c\u4e86\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u7531\u4e8e Judea Pearl \u6700\u8fd1\u521a\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u56fe\u7075\u5956\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5173\u6ce8<\/span><\/span>\uff08\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u754c\u65e9\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u4e86\uff09<\/span>\u3002
          <\/span><\/p>\n

          \u4e00\u3001 \u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe\u548c do \u7b97\u5b50<\/span><\/h1>\n
          \u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u591a\u56fe\u8bba\u7684\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u4ec5\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u6709\u5411\u56fe\u4e2d\u201c\u7236\u4eb2\u201d\u548c\u201c\u540e\u4ee3\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a\u6709\u5411\u7bad\u5934\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u201c\u7236\u4eb2\u201d\uff0c\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u201c\u540e\u4ee3\u201d\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe<\/span>\uff08Directed Acyclic Graph\uff1bDAG\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb0\u6240\u6709\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u96c6\u5408\u4e3a <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7528 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u8868\u793a\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u51fd\u6570\u548c\u79bb\u6563\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6982\u7387\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u770b\u5f85\u4e00\u4e2a DAG\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u5c06\u5176\u770b\u6210\u8868\u793a\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\u5c06\u5176\u770b\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ed9\u5b9a DAG \u4e2d\u67d0\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u201c\u7236\u4eb2\u201d\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0e\u5176\u6240\u6709\u7684\u975e\u201c\u540e\u4ee3\u201d\u90fd\u72ec\u7acb\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5168\u6982\u516c\u5f0f\u548c\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff0cDAG \u4e2d\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u9012\u5f52\u5206\u89e3\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

          <\/section>\n
          \u5176\u4e2d<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8868\u793a<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u201c\u7236\u4eb2\u201d\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u5373\u6240\u6709\u6307\u5411<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u96c6\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          <\/section>\n
          Figure 1: An Example of Causal Diagram<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a<\/strong>\u5728 Figure<\/span> 1 \u4e2d\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u89e3\u6210\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n
          <\/span>\u5982<\/span>\u679c\u5c06 DAG \u770b\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u548c\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u7b49\u4ef7\u7684\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8054\u7acb\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u662f\u201c\u4e09\u89d2\u7684\u201d<\/span>\uff08triangular\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u8005\u201c\u9012\u5f52\u7684\u201d<\/span>\uff08recursive\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a DAG \u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u73af\uff0c\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u8054\u7acb\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u6a21\u578b <\/span>\uff08simultaneous equation model: SEM\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u3002DAG \u7528\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u6570\u636e\u7684\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0\u7cfb\u7edf\u5747\u8861\u65f6\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u4e3b\u8981\u662f SEM \u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u63cf\u8ff0\u53d8\u91cf\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u6216\u8005\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u6216\u8005\u201c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u201d<\/span>\uff08Bayesian network\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u663e\u7136\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe\u552f\u4e00\u5730\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\uff1b\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u80fd\u552f\u4e00\u5730\u51b3\u5b9a\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u6709\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 Figure 2 \u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56fe\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u4e5f\u4e0d\u540c\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u5206\u89e3<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u89c2\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u786e\u5b9a\u201c\u539f\u56e0\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u3002\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u8282\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5047\u5b9a\u548c\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u786e\u5b9a\u201c\u539f\u56e0\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u7528\u4e00\u4e2a DAG \u8fde\u8868\u793a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6700\u8fd1\u624d\u6709\u7684\u3002\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f Judea Pearl \u53d1\u660e\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u5c06\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6210\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u6df1\u523b\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u4e5f\u4e0d\u592a\u6e05\u695a\u4ec5\u4ec5\u51ed\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fe\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u80fd\u8bb2\u6e05\u695a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08structural equation model: SEM\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff1b\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4 SEM \u662f\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u7684\u5148\u9a71\u3002<\/span>\uff08\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a SEM \u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff01\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n
          DAG \u4e2d\u7684\u7bad\u5934\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u67d0\u79cd\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8981\u5728 DAG \u4e0a\u5f15\u5165\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5219\u9700\u8981\u5f15\u8fdb do \u7b97\u5b50<\/strong>\uff0cdo \u7684\u610f\u601d\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u6210\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d <\/span>\uff08intervention\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u6ca1\u6709\u529e\u6cd5\u8c08\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728 DAG \u4e2d <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg><\/span>\uff08\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bb0\u505a <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\uff1a\u5c06 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e2d\u6307\u5411 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u6709\u5411\u8fb9\u5168\u90e8\u5207\u65ad\uff0c\u4e14\u5c06 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u53d6\u503c\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5e38\u6570 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>. \u5982\u6b64\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u65b0 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bb0\u505a <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u540e\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n

          <\/section>\n
          \u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u4f8b\u5b50<\/strong>\uff1a\u8003\u8651\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a DAG\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
          <\/section>\n
          \u5728 Figure 2 (1) \u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u3002\u7531\u4e8e<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u662f<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u201c\u539f\u56e0\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u6761\u4ef6\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728 Figure 2 (2) \u4e2d\uff0c\u6709. \u7531\u4e8e<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u662f<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u6761\u4ef6\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u8005\u201c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u201d\uff09<\/span>\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u539f\u56e0\u201d\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u518d\u7b49\u4e8e\u4ed6\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u201c\u539f\u56e0\u201d<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u6839\u636e do \u7b97\u5b50\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u4e49\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u4e8c\u503c\u7684\u53d8\u91cf <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9\u4e8e <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n

          <\/section>\n
          \u4e0a\u9762 do \u7b97\u5b50\u4e0b\u7684\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94 do \u7b97\u5b50\u4e0b\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u5728 do \u7b97\u5b50\u4e0b\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u88ab\u5df2\u6545\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 Halbert White \u79f0\u4e3a Pearl Causal Model (PCM; White and Chalak 2009)\u3002Pearl \u5728\u5176\u4e66\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
          \n
          \u201cI must take the opportunity to acknowledge four colleagues who saw clarity shining through the do(x) operator before it gained popularity: Steffen Lauritzen, David Freedman, James Robins and Philip David. Phil showed special courage in pringting my paper in Biometrika, the journal founded by causality\u2019s worst adversary \u2013 Karl Pearson.\u201d (Pearl, 2000)<\/span><\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n
          \u5728\u4e66\u4e2d Pearl \u8bba\u8ff0\u4e86 RCM \u548c PCM \u7684\u7b49\u4ef7\u6027\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/section>\n
          <\/section>\n
          \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8868\u793a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8981\u60f3\u8bf4\u660e\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7b49\u4ef7\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u5d4c\u5957\u5728 DAG \u6240\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u90fd\u7531\u8fd9\u4e2a\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u4ea7\u751f\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

          <\/section>\n
          \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u8868\u793a<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u9664\u53bb<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u7236\u4eb2\u8282\u70b9\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u5c06<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u503c\u5f3a\u5236\u5728<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u65f6\uff0cDAG \u7cfb\u7edf\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0b\uff0cdo \u7b97\u5b50\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

          \u4e8c\u3001 d\u5206\u79bb\uff0c\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u548c\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219<\/span><\/h1>\n
          \u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6574\u4e2a DAG \u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u5df2\u77e5\u4e14\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u90fd\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u4e0a\u9762 do \u7b97\u5b50\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u7b97\u51fa\u4efb\u610f\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e2\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6574\u4e2a DAG \u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6709\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u662f\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u4e0b\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u4ecb\u7ecd Judea Pearl \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u201d<\/span>\uff08backdoor criterion\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u201c\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u201d<\/span>\uff08frontdoor criterion\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u51c6\u5219\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u67d0\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f DAG \u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u67d0\u4e9b\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u51c6\u5219\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u9274\u522b\u201c\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\u201d\u548c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6027<\/strong>\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u5c06\u88ab\u9891\u7e41\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2d\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\uff0c\u548c\u4f20\u7edf\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b<\/strong>\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u548c\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u90fd\u6d89\u53ca\u4e86 d \u5206\u79bb<\/span>\uff08d-seperation\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
          \u5b9a\u4e49\uff08d \u5206\u79bb<\/strong>\uff09: \u8bbe <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u662f DAG \u4e2d\u4e0d\u76f8\u4ea4\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u96c6\u5408\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e3a\u4e00\u6761\u8fde\u63a5 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e2d\u67d0\u8282\u70b9\u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e2d\u67d0\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u8def\u5f84 <\/span>\uff08\u4e0d\u7ba1\u65b9\u5411\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8def\u5f84 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e0a\u67d0\u8282\u70b9\u6ee1\u8db3\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
            \n
          1. \n
            \u5728\u8def\u5f84 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e0a\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u70b9\u5904\u4e3a <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7ed3\u6784 <\/span>\uff08\u6216\u79f0\u51b2\u649e\u70b9\uff0ccollider\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e14 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u53ca\u5176\u540e\u4ee3\u4e0d\u5728 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e2d\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
          2. \n
            \u5728\u8def\u5f84 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e0a\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u70b9\u5904\u4e0d\u662f <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u4e14 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5728 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e2d,<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
            \u90a3\u4e48\u79f0 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad (block) \u4e86\u8def\u5f84 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5982\u679c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u4e86<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u6240\u6709\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u79f0 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> d \u5206\u79bb <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u8bb0\u4e3a <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
            \u4e0b\u9762\u4ecb\u7ecd Pearl <\/span>(1995) <\/span>\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5de5\u4f5c\uff1a\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u548c\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

            <\/p>\n

            \u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\uff1a<\/strong>\u5728 DAG \u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\u6761\u4ef6\u6ee1\u8db3\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
              \n
            1. \n
              <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e2d\u8282\u70b9\u4e0d\u80fd\u662f <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u540e\u4ee3\uff1b<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
            2. \n
              <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u4e86<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u4e4b\u95f4\u6240\u6709\u6307\u5411 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u8def\u5f84\uff08\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e3a\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff09<\/span>\uff1b<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
              \u5219\u79f0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u96c6\u5408<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6709\u5e8f\u5bf9<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u6ee1\u8db3\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u82e5<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6709\u5e8f\u5bf9<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u6ee1\u8db3\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u662f<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u610f\u8282\u70b9\uff1b\u90a3\u4e48\u79f0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u96c6\u5408<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8282\u70b9\u96c6\u5408\u7684\u6709\u5e8f\u5bf9<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u6ee1\u8db3\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
              Pearl<\/span> (1995) <\/span>\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u82e5\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u96c6\u5408<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u6ee1\u8db3\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5230<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\uff0c\u4e14<\/span><\/section>\n

              <\/section>\n
              \u4e3a\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u7b80\u77ed\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
              \u8bc1\u660e\uff1a<\/strong>\u5728 Figure 3 (a) \u4e2d\uff0c<\/span><\/section>\n

              <\/section>\n
              \u4ece\u4e0a\u9762\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u548c\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0b ACE \u7684\u8bc6\u522b\u516c\u5f0f\u4e00\u6837\uff1a\u90fd\u662f\u7528 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u505a\u8c03\u6574<\/span> (adjustment)<\/span>\uff0c\u5148\u5206\u5c42\u518d\u52a0\u6743\u6c42\u548c\u3002\u8fd9\u6761\u7ed3\u8bba\u5728 Rosenbaum and Rubin<\/span> (1983)<\/span> \u4e4b\u540e\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4e14\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e5f\u90fd\u7528\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u65b9\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5bf9\u5f88\u591a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u6765\u8bf4\u5e76\u4e0d\u65b0\u5947\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b0\u9896\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
              \u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\uff1a<\/strong>\u5728 DAG \u4e2d\uff0c\u79f0\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u96c6\u5408 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u5e8f\u5bf9 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6ee1\u8db3\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u5982\u679c<\/span><\/section>\n
                \n
              1. \n
                <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5207\u65ad\u4e86\u6240\u6709 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u8def\u5f84\uff1b<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
              2. \n
                <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6ca1\u6709\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff1b<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
              3. \n
                \u6240\u6709 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u90fd\u88ab <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
                \u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u5219<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u5230<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\uff0c\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n

                <\/section>\n
                \u8bc1\u660e\uff1a<\/strong>Figure 3 (b) \u4e2d\u8574\u542b\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u63a8\u5bfc\u4e2d\u7528\u5230\uff1a<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                <\/section>\n
                \u8fd9\u4e2a\u524d\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u770b\u4f3c\u5f88\u96be\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f88\u4e0d\u76f4\u89c2\uff0c\u6070\u4f3c\u53d8\u9b54\u672f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5b83\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5f88\u663e\u7136\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u524d\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u7684 DAG \u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\uff1a\uff081\uff09X<\/span>\u5bf9Z\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3aY<\/span><\/mjx-container>\u963b\u65ad\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff1b\uff082\uff09Z<\/span><\/mjx-container>\u5bf9<\/span><\/mjx-container>Y\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a<\/span><\/mjx-container>X\u963b\u65ad\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff1b\uff083\uff09<\/span><\/mjx-container>X\u5bf9<\/span><\/mjx-container>Y\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7<\/span><\/mjx-container>Z\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e09\u70b9\u8574\u542b\u7740<\/span><\/mjx-container>X\u5bf9<\/span><\/mjx-container>Y\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u6837\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u5c31\u4e0d\u5947\u602a\u4e86\uff01<\/span><\/section>\n
                Pearl \u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u8bb2\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u524d\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u7684\u7528\u5904\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a<\/strong>\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u5fc3\u5438\u70df<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u548c\u80ba\u764c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u57fa\u56e0 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5438\u70df\u548c\u80ba\u764c\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u4e00\u6761\u201c\u6d3b\u201d\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u501f\u52a9\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bc6\u522b\u5438\u70df\u4e0e\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u201c\u5438\u70df <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4ec5\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u80ba\u90e8\u70df\u7126\u6cb9\u7684\u542b\u91cf <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u80ba\u764c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5438\u70df\u5bf9\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u9700\u8981\u4e24\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u8bc1\u660e\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u660e\uff1a\uff081\uff09\u5438\u70df <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>  \u548c\u80ba\u90e8\u70df\u7126\u6cb9\u7684\u542b\u91cf <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>  \u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u6d3b\u201d\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff08\u6216\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\uff09\uff1b\uff082\uff09\u5438\u70df <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9\u80ba\u764c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u5438\u70df <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9\u80ba\u90e8\u70df\u7126\u6cb9 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u5438\u70df <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9\u80ba\u764c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u76f4\u63a5\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a<\/strong>\u5728 Figure 1 \u7684 DAG \u4e2d\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u88ab <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6216\u8005 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\uff0c\u800c\u524d\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u88ab <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u51c6\u5219\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8981\u8bc6\u522b\u4ece <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg><\/strong> \u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg><\/strong> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u5207\u65ad\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u6216\u8005\u524d\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u5373\u53ef\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

                \u4e09\u3001 \u56de\u5230 Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox<\/span><\/h1>\n
                \u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u7ecf\u5178\u7684 Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox\u3002\u8bb0 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e3a\u5904\u7406<\/span>\uff08\u5403\u836f\u4e0e\u5426\uff09<\/span>\uff1b <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u5b58\u6d3b\u4e0e\u5426\uff09<\/span>\uff0c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u5c42\u7684\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u5728\u6700\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u662f\u6027\u522b\uff1b\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u5c06 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7b80\u5355\u5730\u770b\u6210\u67d0\u4e2a\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u5c42\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6096\u8bba\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u6309\u7167 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u503c\u5206\u5c42\u540e\uff0c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u5206\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u5206\uff1f\u2014\u2013\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff01\u8fd9\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4ece\u201c\u76f8\u5173\u201d<\/span>\uff08association\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u7b54\u6848\u7684\u3002\u4ece\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u201d<\/span>\uff08causation\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u6709\u786e\u5207\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u3002\u89e3\u91ca Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox\uff0c\u7b97\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                <\/section>\n
                \u4e0b\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9762\u7684 Figure 4 \u4e2d\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u56fe\u4e3a\u4f8b\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u4e09\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u56fe\uff08a\uff09\uff1a\u6839\u636e\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\uff0c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u963b\u65ad\u4e86 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6839\u636e <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u505a\u8c03\u6574\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5b9e\u9645\u95ee\u9898\u7b26\u5408\u56fe\uff08a\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u7528\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u56fe\uff08b\uff09\uff1a<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u662f <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7684\u201c\u540e\u4ee3\u201d\u4e14\u662f <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u201c\u7236\u4eb2\u201d\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u79f0\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5904\u4e8e <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8def\u5f84\u4e0a\u3002\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u770b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5ffd\u7565 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5c31\u662f  <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5bf9  <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u88ab\u7a7a\u96c6\u963b\u65ad\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u987b\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6b64\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u7528 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u662f <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u5230 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7684\u201c\u76f4\u63a5\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u201c\u76f4\u63a5\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f1a\u5728\u540e\u9762\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1b\u8fd9\u91cc\u53ea\u662f\u7ed9\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f62\u8c61\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u56fe\uff08c\uff09\uff1a\u548c\u56fe\uff08b\uff09\u76f8\u540c\uff0c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5728\u4e8e <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u539f\u56e0 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7ed9\u5b9a <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u540e\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u76f8\u5173\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u88ab\u6253\u901a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u4e0d\u518d\u5177\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\u867d\u7136 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ed9\u5b9a <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u540e\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e0d\u518d\u72ec\u7acb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u56fe\uff08d\uff09\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fe\u5e38\u5e38\u88ab Judea Pearl \u7528\u6765\u6279\u8bc4 Donald Rubin\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c<\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u88ab\u7a7a\u96c6\u963b\u65ad\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u4e8e <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u7528 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u201c\u901a\u8def\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u72ec\u7acb\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540e\u95e8\u8def\u5f84\u88ab\u6253\u901a\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6 <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u548c <\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg> \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e0d\u518d\u5177\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\u662f\u63ed\u5f00 Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox \u795e\u79d8\u9762\u7eb1\u7684\u6709\u529b\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u6b63\u5982 Judea Pearl \u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u4e66\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u8bb2\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4e0d\u6b62\u56e0\u679c\u56fe\uff0cJudea Pearl \u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u59cb\u7ec8\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f97\u5230 Donald Rubin \u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

                \u56db\u3001 \u8ba8\u8bba<\/span><\/h1>\n
                \u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fe\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u662f\u5f88\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740 Pearl \u7684\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u8001\u59aa\u80fd\u89e3\u7684\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5957\u57fa\u4e8e DAG \u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f20\u7edf\u7684 Neyman-Rubin \u6a21\u578b\u8981\u6666\u6da9\u5f88\u591a\u3002DAG \u5728\u63cf\u8ff0\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u57fa\u4e8e\u5f88\u591a\u6697\u542b\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u800c\u5e76\u4e0d\u660e\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f DAG \u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u5927\u5bb6\u5b8c\u5168\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e8e Jerzy Neyman \u7684\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\uff1bDonald Rubin \u53d1\u5c55\u8fd9\u5957\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5b83\u548c\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u7edf\u8ba1\u754c\u66f4\u591a\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
                \u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\u4ece\u672a\u4e2d\u65ad\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u65b9\u9762\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
                  \n
                1. \n
                  \u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe\u8868\u793a\uff1f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6\u770b\u5230 DAG \u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\u201c\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7528\u56fe\u8868\u793a\u53cd\u9988\uff1f\u201d\u7684\u786e\uff0cDAG \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u9002\u7528\u3002\u8981\u60f3\u5c06 DAG \u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5f85\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
                2. \n
                  Pearl \u5f15\u5165\u7684 do \u7b97\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u9886\u57df\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u6240\u8c13 \u201cdo\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u201d\uff0cPearl \u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e72\u9884\u5c31\u662f\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u5916\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u67d0\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u5b9a\uff1a\u5e72\u9884\u67d0\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77 DAG \u4e2d\u5176\u4ed6\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u5b9a\u5e38\u5e38\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8d28\u7591\u5f52\u8d28\u7591\uff0cPearl \u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u5b9a\u867d\u7136\u770b\u4f3c\u5f88\u5f3a\uff0c\u4f46\u6839\u636e\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u5374\u4e0d\u53ef\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d28\u7591\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f Pearl \u7684\u7406\u8bba\u72ec\u6709\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u5207\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u5904\u7406\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u60f3\u5c06\u5b9e\u9a8c\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u53bb\uff0c\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u7528\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u53ef\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
                3. \n
                  \u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u770b\u4e86 Pearl \u7684\u7406\u8bba\u540e\u5c31\u5632\u7b11\u4ed6\uff1a\u96be\u9053\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728 DAG \u4e2d\u5e72\u9884\u201c\u6027\u522b\u201d\uff1f\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c\u79bb\u5f00\u4e86\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u6027\u522b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u4e0d\u592a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6839\u636e Pearl \u7684 do\u7b97\u5b50\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u51e0\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
                    \n
                  • \n
                    \u5f88\u591a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u8c08\u8bba\u201c\u5e72\u9884\u6027\u522b\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u8c08\u8bba\u201c\u6027\u522b\u201d\u7684\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u3002\u201c\u6027\u522b\u201d\u7684\u7279\u6027\u662f\u201c\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u201d\uff08covariate\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u5982\u8eab\u9ad8\u3001\u80a4\u8272\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8c08\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0d\u5408\u9002\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u60f3\u8c61\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n
                  • \n
                    \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u57fa\u4e8e\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5b66\u6d3e\u201d\uff08experimentalists\u2019\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u53ef\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ea\u8981\u6709\u6570\u636e\u7684\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7b97\u51fa\u6027\u522b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5947\u602a\u3002\uff08\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u5c31\u5b66\u4e00\u76f4\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\uff0c\u4ee5 Joshua Angrist\u3001Guido Imbens \u7b49\u4e3a\u9996\u7684\u201c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6d3e\u201d\uff0c\u548c\u4ee5 James Heckman \u4e3a\u9996\u7684\u201c\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u6d3e\uff0c\u6709\u8fc7\u5f88\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
                  • \n
                    \u6709\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u6027\u522b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u826f\u597d\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4eba\u5de5\u7684\u4fee\u6539\u5e94\u8058\u8005\u7b80\u5386\u4e0a\u7684\u540d\u5b57\uff08\u968f\u673a\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u7537\u6027\u548c\u5973\u6027\u540d\u5b57\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u6027\u522b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c42\u804c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u6027\u522b\u6b67\u89c6\u7b49\u7b49\uff08\u5df2\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                  • \n
                    \u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u96be\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684 DAG\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u9610\u8ff0\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u6216\u8005\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97 DAG \u7684\u5e94\u7528\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u963b\u788d\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ece\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u5b66\u4e60 DAG \u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u4e14\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u7559\u5f85\u4e0b\u56de\u5206\u89e3\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
                    \u5728\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6\uff0c\u7559\u4e9b\u4e00\u4e9b\u601d\u8003\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
                      \n
                    • \n
                      \u5728\u4f55\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0b\uff0c\u540e\u95e8\u51c6\u5219\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u7b49\u4ef7\u4e8e\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\uff0c\u5373 <\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/path><\/g><\/g><\/g><\/svg>\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
                    • \n
                      \u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u8282\u7684 Yule-Simpson\u2019s Paradox \u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u9009\u62e9\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\uff1f<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n


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                      <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
                      \n

                      6. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7b80\u4ecb\u4e4b\u516d\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

                      \u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff08instrumental variable\uff09 <\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

                      \n

                      <\/section>\n

                      <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u4e3a\u4e86\u4ecb\u7ecd\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u8981\u4ece\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u51fa\u53d1\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff1b\u5bf9\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u4e00\u5927\u534a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5148\u5bf9\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u56de\u987e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u4e00\u3001\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u548c\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e\u9ad8\u65af\u7684\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u201c\u56de\u5f52\u201d<\/span>\uff08regression\uff09<\/span>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u5b57\u5219\u662f Francis Galton \u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4f18\u751f\u5b66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u63d0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u65b9\u4fbf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u5b9a\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u7ef4\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e2a\u4f53 ii \u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u67d0\u79cd\u5904\u7406<\/span>\uff08\u5438\u70df\u4e0e\u5426\uff1b\u53c2\u52a0\u67d0\u4e2a\u5de5\u4f5c\uff1b\u7b49\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8bb0\u4e3a Di\u3002\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u7ef4\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u662f\u5426\u6709\u80ba\u764c\uff1b\u662f\u5426\u627e\u5230\u5de5\u4f5c\u57f9\u8bad\u4e0e\u5426\uff1b\u7b49\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8bb0\u4e3aYi\u3002\u5047\u5b9a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6709 n \u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7528\u4e8e\u63cf\u8ff0 D \u548c Y \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684 \u201c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

                      Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>\u03b1<\/span><\/span>+<\/span><\/span>\u03b2<\/span><\/span>D<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>+<\/span><\/span>\u03b5<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>\u22ef<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>n<\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


                      <\/p>\n<\/section>\n

                      <\/span>\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u5b9a\u4e2a\u4f53\u95f4\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u867d\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u505a\u4e00\u4e9b\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u90fd\u5047\u5b9a <\/span>D<\/span>i<\/span><\/span> \u662f\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u968f\u673a\u8bbe\u8ba1 <\/span><\/span>\uff08random design\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff1b\u8fd9\u548c\u4f20\u7edf\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u504f\u597d\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08fixed design\uff09<\/span>\u6709\u70b9\u4e0d\u540c\u2014\u90a3\u91cc\u5047\u5b9a <\/span>D<\/span>i<\/span><\/span>\u603b\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/span>\uff08\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6e90\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\u90fd\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u6709\u5047\u5b9a\u56fa\u5b9a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u3002\uff09<\/span>\u5047\u5b9a <\/span>D<\/span>i<\/span><\/span>\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u65e2\u7b26\u5408\u5f88\u591a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7684\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u53c8\u4f1a\u7b80\u5316\u540e\u9762\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f <\/span>\u03b5<\/span>i<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u542b\u4e49\uff1fRubin \u66fe\u7ecf\u5632\u7b11\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684 <\/span>\u03b5<\/span>i<\/span><\/span>\u9053\uff1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7f\u5f97\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7b49\u5f0f\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u52a0\u7684\u4e00\u9879\uff0c\u5c31\u53eb <\/span>\u03b5<\/span>i<\/span><\/span>\u3002\u6279\u8bc4\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff1b\u5173\u952e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a <\/span>\u03b5<\/span>i<\/span><\/span>\u4e0a\u52a0\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u5047\u5b9a\u5462\uff1f\u6700\u6839\u672c\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
                      <\/section>\n

                      <\/section>\n
                      \u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u7a0d\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 Wooldridge \u7684\u4e66\u4e0a\u5047\u5b9aE<\/mi>(<\/mo>\u03b5<\/mi>i<\/mi><\/msub>\u2223<\/mo>D<\/mi>i<\/mi><\/msub>)<\/mo>=<\/mo>0<\/mn>\uff0c\u5f88\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u8574\u542b\u7740\u4e0a\u9762\u4e24\u4e2a\u5047\u5b9a\u3002\u96f6\u5747\u503c\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f3a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a \u03b1<\/span>\u03b1<\/mi>\u201c\u5438\u6536\u201d\u4e86 \u03b5<\/span>i<\/span>\u03b5<\/mi>i<\/mi><\/msub>\u7684\u5747\u503c\uff1b\u5173\u952e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\u4e3a\u96f6\u7684\u5047\u5b9a\u2014\u5b83\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \u201c\u5916\u751f\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08exogeneity\uff09<\/span>\u5047\u5b9a\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728 (1) \u7684\u4e24\u8fb9\u5173\u4e8e D<\/mi>i<\/mi><\/msub> \u53d6\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      cov<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>D<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>\u03b2<\/span><\/span>var<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>D<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>

                      <\/span>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/span>\u03b2<\/span>=<\/span>cov<\/span>(<\/span>Y<\/span>i<\/span>,<\/span>D<\/span>i<\/span>)\/<\/span>var<\/span>(<\/span>D<\/span>i<\/span>)<\/span><\/span>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7acb\u523b\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u77e9\u4f30\u8ba1\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                      <\/p>\n

                      \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f0f\u4e5f\u662f\u901a\u5e38\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u89e3\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u53ea\u662f\u6362\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a8\u5bfc\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5c06 (1) \u770b\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5728\u5047\u5b9a (2) \u4e0b\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u786e\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528 \u03b2.<\/span><\/p>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u4e8c\u3001\u5185\u751f\u6027\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

                      \u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u5047\u5b9a (2) \u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u5e76\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb<\/span>\uff08cov(Di,\u03b5i)\u22600\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5438\u70df\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u548c\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u672c\u8eab\u5f88\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u53c2\u52a0\u5de5\u4f5c\u57f9\u8bad\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4e0d\u53c2\u52a0\u5de5\u4f5c\u57f9\u8bad\u7684\u4eba\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u627e\u5de5\u4f5c\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u4e2a\u4f53 ii\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u9690\u85cf\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u53d8\u91cf \u03b5i\u03b5i\u4e0d\u518d\u4e0e DiDi\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u4e86\u2014\u8fd9\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \u201c\u5185\u751f\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08endogeneity\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u4f30\u8ba1\u6536\u655b\u5230 \u03b2+cov(D,\u03b5)\/var(D), \u56e0\u800c\u5728 cov(D,\u03b5)\u22600\u65f6\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u03b2\u7684\u76f8\u5408\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u524d\u9762\u51e0\u6b21\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u6548\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f3a\u5236\u6027\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u662f\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\u6216\u8005\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u4f26\u7406\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f3a\u5236\u67d0\u4e9b\u4eba\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u9f13\u52b1\u6027\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u884c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u968f\u673a\u5730\u7ed9\u5438\u70df\u7684\u4eba\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u91d1\u94b1\u7684\u5956\u52b1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u653e\u5f03\u5438\u70df\uff0c\u5219\u83b7\u5f97\u67d0\u79cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u7684\u4f18\u60e0\u3002\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a \u201c\u9f13\u52b1\u6027\u201d \u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u8bb0\u4e3a Zi\uff0c\u5b83\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u662f\u5426\u88ab\u9f13\u52b1\u7684\u793a\u6027\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u53d6\u503c 0-1\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9f13\u52b1\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u7406\u7531\u5047\u5b9a cov(Zi,\u03b5i)=0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fe\u6765\u5f62\u8c61\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

                      <\/p>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u5982\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8eD<\/span>


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b (1) \u4e24\u8fb9\u5173\u4e8e<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>

                      cov<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>\u03b2<\/span><\/span>cov<\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>Z<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span>D<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


                      <\/p>\n

                      \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                      <\/p>\n

                      <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>

                      <\/p>\n


                      <\/span><\/section>\n
                      \u6839\u636e\u5927\u6570\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a \u201c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u201d \u662f <\/span>\u03b2<\/span><\/span>\u7684\u76f8\u5408\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u5f0f\u5b50\u5bf9\u4e00\u822c\u7684 <\/span>Z<\/mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><\/span>\u90fd\u662f\u6210\u7acb\u7684\uff1b\u5f53 <\/span>Z<\/mi>i<\/mi><\/msub><\/span>\u662f 0-1 \u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u5f0f\u5b50\u53ef\u5316\u7b80\u6210\uff1a<\/span><\/span>
                      <\/section>\n

                      <\/p>\n

                      \u5176\u4e2d\u00af<\/span><\/span><\/span>Y<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>