{"id":28728,"date":"2021-09-08T22:18:47","date_gmt":"2021-09-08T14:18:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=28728"},"modified":"2021-09-08T22:18:47","modified_gmt":"2021-09-08T14:18:47","slug":"%e5%91%a8%e6%99%93%e5%8d%8e%ef%bc%9a%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e7%94%a8%e6%95%b0%e5%ad%a6%e8%af%ad%e8%a8%80%e6%9d%a5%e6%8f%8f%e8%bf%b0%e8%bf%9b%e8%a1%8c%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=28728","title":{"rendered":"\u5468\u6653\u534e\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u8bed\u8a00\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5468\u6653\u534e\u3001\u9093\u5b87\u660a<\/span> | \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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1. \u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u57fa\u7840<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6Fisher\u66fe\u63d0\u51fa\u968f\u673a\u5316<\/strong>\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u90fd\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u5730\u5206\u914d\u5230\u4e24\u79cd\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u6848\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u4e86\u3002\u5728\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5373E[Yt<\/sub>(u)]=E[Y(u)|Z=t]\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u6761\u4ef6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u7834\u574f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c<\/span><\/section>\n
(1) \u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027<\/strong>\uff1a\u60a3\u8005\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6309\u7167\u539f\u6765\u5b89\u6392\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\u8fdb\u884c\u6cbb\u7597\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n
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(3) \u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u524d\u60a3\u8005\u6b7b\u4ea1<\/span>\uff08\u7ed3\u5c40\u65e0\u5b9a\u4e49\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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2. \u975e\u6807\u51c6\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad<\/strong><\/strong>\u4e4b\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/p>\n

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(1) \u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373\u4e24\u79cd\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u5206\u914d\u65b9\u6848\u72ec\u7acb\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n
(2) \u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373Di<\/sub>(1)\u2265Di<\/sub>(0)\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728d\u7ec4\uff1b<\/span><\/section>\n

(3) a\u7ec4\u548cd\u7ec4\u7684\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373a\u7ec4\u548cd\u7ec4\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e0b\u9762\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9645\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u5e26\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad[1]\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u6d41\u611f\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e00\u4e2a\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bd5\u9a8c\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u5206\u914d\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u9f13\u52b1\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u3001\u4e0d\u9f13\u52b1\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\uff0c\u4f46\u88ab\u9f13\u52b1\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u4eba\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\uff0c\u672a\u88ab\u9f13\u52b1\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u4eba\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u610f\u5411\u6cbb\u7597\u5206\u6790\u662f\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u662f\u9f13\u52b1\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5b9e\u9645\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u628a\u4eba\u7fa4\u5206\u5c42\u540e\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4f9d\u4ece\u7ec4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u7f3a\u5931\u65f6\u7814\u7a76\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u9488\u5bf9\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u4e0b<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u7f3a\u5931\u673a\u5236\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7ed3\u5c40\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e00\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e86\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u77e9\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e76\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u5f53\u7ed3\u5c40\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u7f3a\u5931\u65f6\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u805a\u7c7b\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u591a\u91cd\u586b\u8865\u65b9\u6cd5[2-5]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5229\u7528\u9ad8\u7ef4\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u5f3a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5f02\u8d28\u5c40\u90e8\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u65b0\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5[6]\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u4e24\u9636\u6bb5\u5e7f\u4e49\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u975e\u51f8\u76ee\u6807\u51fd\u6570\u4e0b\u7684Lasso\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u6784\u9020\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u7ea0\u6b63\u4e86\u7531\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u9ad8\u7ef4\u4f30\u8ba1\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u8868\u5728 JRSSB <\/em>\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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    <\/span>
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3. \u975e\u6807\u51c6\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684<\/strong><\/strong>\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad<\/strong><\/strong>\u4e4b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u548c\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7834\u574f\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5728\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u53d1\u751f\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u3002\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u4e0e\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u524d\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u8005\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u6709\u5b9a\u4e49\u3001\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u672a\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7f62\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7528Zi<\/sub>\u8868\u793a\u7b2ci\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u7684\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u6848<\/span>\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f9d\u4ece\u4e8e\u5206\u914d\u65b9\u6848\uff09<\/span>\uff0cSi<\/sub>(Zi<\/sub>)\u8868\u793a\u4e2a\u4f53i\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5b58\u6d3b\u72b6\u6001<\/span>\uff081\u8868\u793a\u5b58\u6d3b\uff0c0\u8868\u793a\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff09<\/span>\uff0cYi<\/sub>(Zi<\/sub>)\u8868\u793a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u679cSi<\/sub>(Zi<\/sub>)=1\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7528Xi<\/sub>\u8868\u793a\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u4ecd\u7136\u5229\u7528\u4e3b\u5c42\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u628a\u4eba\u7fa4\u5206\u4e3a\u56db\u5c42\uff0c\u7528G\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u6c38\u8fdc\u5b58\u6d3b\u7ec4LL<\/span>\uff08Si<\/sub>(z)=1\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u6c38\u8fdc\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7ec4DD<\/span>\uff08Si<\/sub>(z)=1\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u6709\u76ca\u7ec4LD<\/span>\uff08Si<\/sub>(z)=z\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u6709\u5bb3\u7ec4DL<\/span>\uff08Si<\/sub>(z)=1-z\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u6c38\u8fdc\u5b58\u6d3b\u7684LL\u7ec4\uff0c\u5176\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u65e0\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u5fc3\u6c38\u8fdc\u5b58\u6d3b\u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528 SACE=E[Yi<\/sub>(1)-Yi<\/sub>(0)|G=LL]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc6\u522b\u5b58\u6d3b\u7ec4\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u505a\u51fa\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u5173\u4e8eS\u548cY\u7684\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u66ff\u4ee3\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u4eba\u7fa4\u5206\u5c42\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u4f7f\u7528\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u5b58\u6d3b\u7ec4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528[7, 8]\u3002\u5728\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u6709\u5bb3\u7ec4DL\u7ec4\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8981\u653e\u5bbd\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u53ef\u5c06\u5176\u66ff\u6362\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5141\u8bb8DL\u7ec4\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u4e8b\u5148\u7ed9\u5b9aSi<\/sub>(1)\u3001Si<\/sub>(0)\u548cLL\u7ec4\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7528\u4e8e\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e09\u4e2a\u7ec4\u522b\u4e14\u5b58\u5728\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u7684\u591a\u5904\u7406\u968f\u673a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5[9]\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u8fd8\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u603b\u4f53\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5927\u6837\u672c\u4e0b\u7684\u6536\u655b\u6027\uff0c\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u5927\u6837\u672c\u4e0b\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u548c\u8fde\u7eed\u578b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u548c\u534a\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570SACE\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86SACE\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u6b63\u5219\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u63d0\u51fa\u5f53\u8fdd\u80cc\u90e8\u5206\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n

\u4eca\u5e74\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u75be\u75c5\u9884\u9632\u63a7\u5236\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5468\u62a5\u300b\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u7528\u745e\u5fb7\u897f\u97e6\u6cbb\u7597COVID-19\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u90fd\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u4ee5\u75c5\u60c5\u6062\u590d\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a\u7ed3\u5c40\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u6062\u590d\u524d\u88ab\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed3\u5c40\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u4e0e\u57fa\u7840\u75be\u75c5\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5219\u628a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e2a\u4f53\u5f53\u4f5c\u5728\u7ec8\u70b9\u5904\u5220\u5931\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u62df\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u628a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u5f53\u4f5c\u5220\u5931\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b58\u6d3b\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span>\uff08\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u6309\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u5206\u5c42\uff09<\/span>\u90fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6709\u504f\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u5e94\u4f30\u8ba1[10]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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    <\/span>
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4. \u4e2d\u4ecb\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e2d\u4ecb\u3002\u7528T\u8868\u793a\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0cM\u8868\u793a\u4e2d\u4ecb\uff0cY\u8868\u793a\u7ed3\u5c40\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u4eceT\u5230Y\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u6761\u8def\u5f84\uff1a\u4e00\u6761\u662f\u4eceT\u76f4\u63a5\u5230Y\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u76f4\u63a5\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong>\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u662f\u4eceT\u7ecf\u8fc7M\u518d\u5230Y\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u95f4\u63a5\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u5173\u4e8e\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u9157\u9152\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u5230\u4e09\u79cd\u65b9\u6848T\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u653e\u677e<\/span>\uff08\u5bf9\u7167\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u9152\u7cbe\u626b\u63cf+\u5e72\u9884\u3001\u9152\u7cbe\u626b\u63cf+\u5e72\u9884+\u60c5\u7eea\u63a7\u5236\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4e2d\u4ecbM\u662f\u60c5\u7eea\u63a7\u5236\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u7ed3\u5c40Y\u662f3\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u7684\u6291\u90c1\u5f97\u5206\u3002\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u4e2d\u4ecb\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u6df7\u6742\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u653e\u5bbd\u4e86\u5e8f\u5217\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u5141\u8bb8\u4e2d\u4ecb\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u6df7\u6742\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5141\u8bb8\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e<\/strong>[11]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4eca\u5e74\u5468\u6653\u534e\u56e2\u961f\u5728Statistics in Medicine<\/em>\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5173\u6ce8\u4e86\u7528\u786e\u5b9a\u7ed3\u679c\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e8c\u503c\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u5e8f\u5217\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5f53\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u88ab\u7834\u574f\u65f6\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u95f4\u63a5\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4e0a\u4e0b\u754c[12]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u6700\u4f18\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u6cbb\u7597\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u4f7f\u7528\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u8c03\u6574\u6548\u5e94\u66f2\u7ebf<\/span>\uff08BATE\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u66f2\u7ebf<\/span>\uff08CSTE\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u8868\u793a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u75c5\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u6700\u4f18\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e25\u683c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u65b0\u63d0\u51fa\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u6cbb\u7597\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u63d0\u51fa\u91c7\u7528B\u6837\u6761\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1 CSTE \u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u91c7\u7528Hotelling tube\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1CSTE\u66f2\u7ebf\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5e26\u7684\u65b0\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5b9a\u4e49\u5e76\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e8c\u503c\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u7684CSTE\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ef\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\u4f18\u52bf\u6bd4\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5229\u7528B\u6837\u6761\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1\u5e7f\u4e49\u53d8\u7cfb\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5927\u6837\u672c\u6570\u5b66\u6027\u8d28[14, 15]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4eca\u5e74\u5468\u6653\u534e\u56e2\u961f\u5728 Journal of the American Statistical Association <\/em>\u65b0\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u628a\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u66f2\u7ebf\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u542b\u6709\u9ad8\u7ef4\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u5728\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6a21\u578b\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u5141\u8bb8\u9ad8\u7ef4\u53d8\u91cf\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u66f2\u7ebf\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5206\u522b\u9488\u5bf9\u6cbb\u7597\u7ec4\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u6784\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u534a\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u5165\u60e9\u7f5a\u9879\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u53d8\u91cf\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5411\u540e\u6837\u6761\u62df\u5408\u6838\u7684\u6781\u503c\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u6536\u655b\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u6784\u9020\u51fa\u540c\u65f6\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5e26\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u6700\u5927\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u6cbb\u7597\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u63a8\u65ad[16]\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8fd8\u7528R\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5305\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u6587\u4e2d\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5[17]\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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[1] Keisuke, H. , Imbens, G. W. , Rubin, D. B. , & Xiao-Hua, Z. . (2000). Assessing the effect of an influenza vaccine in an encouragement design. Biostatistics.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

[2] Hua, C. , Geng, Z. , Zhou, X. H. , Small, D. S. , & Jing, C. . (2009). Identifiability and estimation of causal effects in randomized trials with noncompliance and completely nonignorable missing data. Biometrics.<\/span><\/section>\n
[3] Frangakis, C. E. , Rubin, D. B. , & Zhou, X. . (2002). Clustered encouragement designs with individual noncompliance: bayesian inference with randomization, and application to advance directive forms. Biostatistics.<\/span><\/section>\n
[4] Taylor, L. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2010). Multiple imputation methods for treatment noncompliance and nonresponse in randomized clinical trials. Biometrics.<\/span><\/section>\n
[5] Taylor, L. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2011). Methods for clustered encouragement design studies with noncompliance and missing data. Biostatistics.<\/span><\/section>\n
[6] Qiu, Y. , Tao, J. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2021). Inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using observational data with high-dimensional covariates. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B.<\/span><\/section>\n
[7] Ding, P. , Geng, Z. , Yan, W. , & Zhou, X. H. (2011). Identifiability and estimation of causal effects by principal stratification with outcomes truncated by death. Journal of the American Statistical Association.<\/span><\/section>\n
[8] Wang, L. , Zhou, X. H. , & Richardson, T. S. . (2016). Identification and estimation of causal effects with outcomes truncated by death. Biometrika.<\/span><\/section>\n
[9] Wang, L. , Richardson, T. S. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2017). Causal analysis of ordinal treatments and binary outcomes under truncation by death. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).<\/span><\/section>\n
[10] Deng, Y. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2021). Caution About Truncation-By-Death in Clinical Trial Statistical Analysis: A Lesson from Remdesivir. China CDC Weekly.<\/span><\/section>\n
[11] Zheng, C. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2015). Causal mediation analysis in the multilevel intervention and multicomponent mediator case. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 77.<\/span><\/section>\n
[12] Li, W. , Geng, Z. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2021). Causal mediation analysis with sure outcomes of random events model. Statistics in Medicine.<\/span><\/section>\n
[13] \u97e9\u5f00\u5c71, \u5468\u6653\u534e, & \u5218\u5b9d\u82b3. (2017). \u7ed3\u5c40\u53d8\u91cf\u4e3a\u4e8c\u503c\u65f6\u5229\u7528cste\u66f2\u7ebf\u9009\u62e9\u6700\u4f18\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848. \u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66:\u6570\u5b66.<\/span><\/section>\n
[14] Zhou, X. H. , & Ma, Y. B. . (2012). Bate curve in assessment of clinical utility of predictive biomarkers. Science China Mathematics.<\/span><\/section>\n
[15] Ma, Y. , & Zhou, X. H. . (2017). Treatment selection in a randomized clinical trial via covariate-specific treatment effect curves. Statistical Methods in Medical Research.<\/span><\/section>\n
[16] Guo, W. , Zhou, X. H., & Ma, S. (2020). Estimation of optimal individualized treatment rules using a covariate-specific treatment effect curve with high-dimensional covariates. Journal of the American Statistical Association.<\/span><\/section>\n
[17] https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/CSTE\/index.html<\/span><\/section>\n


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2021\u6cdb\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5927\u4f1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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2021\u6cdb\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5927\u4f1a<\/span><\/a>\u662f\u81ea2019\u5e74\u8d77\u7531\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u5b66\u9662\u751f\u7269\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u5317\u4eac\u56fd\u9645\u6570\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u4e00\u5e74\u4e00\u5ea6\u7684\u76db\u4f1a\u3002\u672c\u6b21\u76db\u4f1a\u5c06\u4e8e9\u670811\u65e5\u81f312\u65e5\u7ebf\u4e0a\u4e3e\u529e\uff0c\u9762\u5411\u6240\u6709\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u76db\u4f1a\u805a\u96c6\u4e86\u6d77\u5185\u5916\u5927\u6279\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u76f8\u5173\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u5927\u62ff\uff0c\u6c47\u805a\u4e00\u5802\u5171\u540c\u63a2\u8ba8\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u63a2\u7d22\u65b0\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u672c\u6b21\u6cdb\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5927\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u63d0\u540d+\u9080\u8bf7\u5609\u5bbe\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u6765\u5927\u6279\u4e1a\u754c\u5927\u62ff\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u7a0b\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u52a0\u5f00\u653e\u5e73\u53f0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausal AI<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\uff1a\u8fde\u63a5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u81ea\u52a8\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u4ea4\u53c9\u9886\u57df<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n


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