{"id":29326,"date":"2021-10-17T23:34:55","date_gmt":"2021-10-17T15:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=29326"},"modified":"2021-10-17T23:34:55","modified_gmt":"2021-10-17T15:34:55","slug":"pnas%e5%89%8d%e6%b2%bf%ef%bc%9a%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e4%bd%95%e6%97%b6%e8%b5%b0%e5%90%91%e5%b4%a9%e6%ba%83%ef%bc%9f%e6%b7%b1%e5%ba%a6%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e7%ae%97%e6%b3%95%e5%b8%ae%e5%8a%a9%e9%a2%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=29326","title":{"rendered":"PNAS\u524d\u6cbf\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f55\u65f6\u8d70\u5411\u5d29\u6e83\uff1f\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7b97\u6cd5\u5e2e\u52a9\u9884\u8b66\u4e34\u754c\u70b9"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/strong>\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5d29\u6e83\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u7a81\u7136\u53d8\u5316\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u666e\u9002\u5730\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3002\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u7edf\u7279\u5f02\u6027\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u3001\u70ed\u58f0\u5b66\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7684268\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7075\u654f\u5ea6\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u5047\u9633\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8be5\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u6210\u529f\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6316\u6398\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u4e2d\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong>\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u76f8\u53d8\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u751f\u6001\u5b66<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Marcus Lapeyrolerie\uff0cCarl Boettiger<\/span> | \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u90ed\u745e\u4e1c<\/span> | \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6881\u91d1<\/span> | \u5ba1\u6821<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span>
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\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> | \u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/span>
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\u4ece\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u66b4\u53d1\uff0c\u5230\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u89c1\u7684\u6700\u5267\u70c8\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u5185\u5728\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e00\u7c7b\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u80fd\u5426\u7834\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e00\u96be\u9898\u5462\uff1fPNAS<\/em>\u4eca\u5e749\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u5730\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u6709\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u6d77\u91cf\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u8bad\u7ec3\u6df1\u5ea6\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8be5\u6587\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u76d1\u7763\u5b66\u4e60\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u529f\u5730\u533a\u5206\u5728\u54ea\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u5728\u8d70\u5411\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/118\/39\/e2106140118#abstract-2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u4ece\u8111\u7535\u6ce2\u5230\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u90fd\u80fd\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u4e34\u754c\u70b9<\/span>\uff08tipping point\uff09<\/span>\u73b0\u8c61 [2]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u73b0\u8c61\u80cc\u540e\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u4e34\u754c\u6162\u5316<\/strong><\/span>\uff08critical slowing down\uff0cCSD\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5171\u540c\u663e\u8457\u7279\u5f81[3]\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5728\u7a81\u53d8\u53d1\u751f\u524d\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u53d1\u73b0\u901a\u7528\u5224\u522b\u5668\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e4b\u524d\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u8bf4\u8d77\u6765\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u505a\u8d77\u6765\u96be [4,5]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8eCDS\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u627e\u5230\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u90fd\u8fc7\u4e8e\u901a\u7528\uff0c\u5728\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/span>\uff08catastrophic transition\uff09<\/span>\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u7531\u62d3\u6251\u5b66\u5bb6 Rene Thom \u63d0\u51fa [6]\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7a81\u53d8\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08catastrophe theory\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u79f0\u4e3a\u5dee\u5f02\u500d\u6570<\/strong><\/span>\uff08fold change\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u5e76\u975e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u76f8\u53d8\u70b9\u9644\u8fd1\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8d85\u4e34\u754c\u76f8\u53d8\u6216Hopf \u76f8\u53d8<\/strong>[7]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e09\u79cd\u9020\u6210\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u76f8\u53d8\u73b0\u8c61\u90fd\u66fe\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u4e2d\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230[5]\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u6216\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5f53\u67d0\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u4f20\u64ad\u7cfb\u6570R0<\/sub>\u8d85\u8fc71\u65f6\uff0c\u8d85\u4e34\u754c\u76f8\u53d8\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u75c5\u60a3\u4f1a\u4f20\u67d3\u591a\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u60a3\u8005\u3002\u4e09\u79cd\u76f8\u53d8\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u500d\u6570\u5206\u53c9<\/span>\uff08fold bifurcation\uff09<\/span>\u4e00\u65e6\u8d8a\u8fc7\u9600\u503c\uff0c\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u70b9\u6025\u5267\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u5730\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fdc\u5904\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5ef6\u8fdf<\/span>\uff08hysteresis\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u6162\u5316\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f9d\u9760\u7edf\u8ba1\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u7ed9\u51fa\u63d0\u524d\u9884\u8b66\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u533a\u5206\u707e\u96be\u6027\u548c\u975e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u6d77\u91cf\u6a21\u62df\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u533a\u5206\u51fa\u707e\u96be\u6027\u548c\u975e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>\u3002\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u76f8\u53d8\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e0d\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u8fd8\u57fa\u4e8e\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u751f\u7269\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u76f8\u53d8\u4f7f\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u6162\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5047\u9633\u6027\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u76f8\u53d8\u70b9\u7ed9\u51fa\u9884\u8b66\uff0c\u8fd8\u7ecf\u5e38\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u76f8\u53d8\u70b9[9,10]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u9700\u8981\u8f93\u5165\u5927\u91cf\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5bf9\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u76f8\u53d8\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u6216\u7cbe\u5ea6\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u6162\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u7f3a\u4e4f\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u548c\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u770b\u5230\u5168\u5c40\u56fe\u666f\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6bd4\u6b63\u5e38\u548c\u707e\u96be\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u5168\u5c40\u56fe\u666f\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

       <\/span> \u56fe2. \u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u84dd\u7ebf)\uff0c\u5176\u4ee3\u8868\u6a21\u578b\u6027\u80fd\u7684AUC\u8fbe\u5230\u4e860.8~1\uff0c\u8fdc\u80dc\u8fc7\u4e4b\u524d\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n


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\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u6162\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u7ba1\u4e2d\u7aa5\u8c79\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4ece\u707e\u96be\u6027\u548c\u975e\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u56fe\u666f\u5171\u6709\u7684\u4e00\u9636\u9879\u4e2d\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5c06\u8981\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u800c\u6bcf\u4e00\u7c7b\u76f8\u53d8\u7684\u89c4\u8303\u5f62\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08normal form\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5219\u80fd\u591f\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u76f8\u53d8\u7684\u5fae\u5999\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u4e14\u9ad8\u9636\u7279\u5f81\u80fd\u591f\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u4f55\u65f6\u4e00\u4e2a\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u6765\u4e34<\/strong>\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u7edf\u8ba1\u6307\u6807\u7b80\u5355\u533a\u5206\u51fa\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u6162\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u9ad8\u9636\u7279\u5f81\u5f88\u96be\u901a\u8fc7\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6307\u6807\u5f97\u51fa\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u514b\u670d\u8fd9\u4e00\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u5de5\u5177\uff1a\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6df1\u5ea6\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u5177\u5907\u7684\u8868\u5f81\u80fd\u529b\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7ec6\u5fae\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u533a\u5206\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u76f8\u53d8\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5c42\u9762<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u8457\u540d\u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\u5728\u89c6\u89c9\u9886\u57df\u5e94\u7528\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5377\u79ef\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5e94\u7528\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684LSTM[11]\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u5728\u56db\u7c7b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u8bad\u7ec3\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5305\u62ecfold\u3001Hopf\u3001\u8d85\u4e34\u754c\u76f8\u53d8\u53ca\u4e2d\u6027\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e34\u754c\u6162\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u540e\u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u80fd\u591f\u4ee5\u66f4\u9ad8\u7cbe\u5ea6\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u8fd9\u56db\u7c7b\u76f8\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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1 T. M. Bury et al., Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118, e2106140118 (2021).<\/span><\/p>\n

2 M. Scheffer et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461, 53\u201359 (2009).<\/span><\/p>\n

3 C. Wissel, A universal law of the characteristic return time near thresholds. Oecologia 65, 101\u2013107 (1984).<\/span><\/p>\n

4 C. Boettiger, N. Ross, A. Hastings, Early warning signals: The charted and uncharted territories. Theor. Ecol. 6, 255\u2212264 (2013).<\/span><\/p>\n

5 M. Scheffer, S. R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, E. van Nes, Generic indicators of ecological resilience: Inferring the chance of a critical transition. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol.<\/span><\/p>\n

Syst. 46, 145\u2013167 (2015).<\/span><\/p>\n

6 R. Thom, Structural Stability and Morphogenesis: An Outline of a General Theory of Models (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1989).<\/span><\/p>\n

7 Y. Kuznetsov, Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory (Applied Mathematical Sciences, Springer Science & Business Media, 2013), vol. 112.<\/span><\/p>\n

8 S. M. O\u2019Regan, J. M. Drake, Theory of early warning signals of disease emergence and leading indicators of elimination. Theor. Ecol. 6, 333\u2013357 (2013).<\/span><\/p>\n

9 C. Boettiger, A. Hastings, Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions. J. R. Soc. Interface 9, 2527\u20132539 (2012).<\/span><\/p>\n

10 C. T. Perretti, S. B. Munch, Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems. Ecol. Appl. 22, 1772\u20131779 (2012).<\/span><\/p>\n

11 Y. LeCun, Y. Bengio, G. Hinton, Deep learning. Nature 521, 436\u2013444 (2015).<\/span><\/p>\n

12 A. Hastings, D. B. Wysham, Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning. Ecol. Lett. 13, 464\u2013472 (2010).<\/span><\/p>\n

13 K. Tunstr\u00f8m et al., Collective states, multistability and transitional behavior in schooling fish. PLOS Comput. Biol. 9, e1002915 (2013).<\/span><\/p>\n

14 C. Boettiger, From noise to knowledge: How randomness generates novel phenomena and reveals information. Ecol. Lett. 21, 1255\u20131267 (2018).<\/span><\/p>\n

15 A. Hastings et al., Transient phenomena in ecology. Science 361, 6406 (2018).<\/span><\/p>\n

16 C. Boettiger, A. Hastings, Tipping points: From patterns to predictions. Nature 493, 157\u2013158 (2013).<\/span><\/p>\n


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