{"id":29381,"date":"2021-10-21T18:04:01","date_gmt":"2021-10-21T10:04:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=29381"},"modified":"2021-10-21T18:04:01","modified_gmt":"2021-10-21T10:04:01","slug":"donald-rubin%e4%ba%b2%e8%87%aa%e8%ae%b2%e8%a7%a3%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%8e%a8%e6%96%ad%e4%b8%a8%e5%91%a8%e4%ba%94%e7%9b%b4%e6%92%ad%c2%b7%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=29381","title":{"rendered":"Donald Rubin\u4eb2\u81ea\u8bb2\u89e3\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e28\u5468\u4e94\u76f4\u64ad\u00b7\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='wxsyncmain'>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: PingFangSC-light;font-size: 15px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\" data-mpa-powered-by=\"yiban.io\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 661px;vertical-align: top;background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246);\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"rich_pages wxw-img\" data-backh=\"316\" data-backw=\"562\" data-fileid=\"100098631\" data-galleryid=\"\" data-ratio=\"0.562019758507135\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"911\" style=\"width: 100%;height: auto;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-2c4099095ac1c3ad509ca535ddbcd3ec.png\"><\/p>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;\">\n<section style=\"width: 661px;\">\n<section style=\"padding-right: 3px;float: left;line-height: 1;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\">\n<section style=\"padding-left: 10px;display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;height: auto;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;line-height: 0;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"transform: translate3d(-13px, 0px, 0px);\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 25px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;border-style: solid solid none;border-width: 3px 3px 2px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(33, 166, 210) rgb(33, 166, 210) rgb(15, 76, 129);\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"transform: translate3d(-1px, 0px, 0px);\">\n<section style=\"color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.5;\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><strong>\u5bfc\u8bed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"transform: translate3d(-13px, 0px, 0px) rotateX(180deg);\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;width: 24px;height: 10px;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;line-height: 0;border-style: solid solid none;border-width: 3px 3px 2px;border-radius: 0px;border-color: rgb(33, 166, 210) rgb(33, 166, 210) rgb(15, 76, 129);\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 4px;padding-left: 4px;clear: right;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;min-height: 4.5em !important;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 5px;margin-bottom: 5px;\">\n<section style=\"padding-right: 8px;padding-left: 8px;font-size: 13px;line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\n<section style=\"clear: none;line-height: 2em;\"><strong style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">2021\u5e7410\u670811\u65e5\uff0cJoshua D. Angrist\u548cGuido W. Imbens\u56e0\u201c\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u8d21\u732e\u201d\u800c\u83b7\u5f972021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002Angrist\u548cImbens\u6700\u4e3a\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u5176\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u5c06\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3aRubin\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u672c\u6b21<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247580041&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ac9c1f715efa58ca79fc416c6e41190c&amp;chksm=e896e304dfe16a12a7cb349d945f3fc400533c5b89f6df9a407c1654ccb248f1a65d1e89fb9e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" textvalue=\"\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\" data-itemshowtype=\"0\" tab=\"innerlink\" data-linktype=\"2\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u9080\u8bf7\u5230\u4e86\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6Donald B. Rubin\u6559\u6388\u6765\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u5728Rubin\u5206\u4eab\u7ed3\u675f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u9080\u8bf7\u4e86\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u53a6\u95e8\u5927\u5b66\u8d75\u897f\u4eae\u6559\u6388\u4ee5\u53ca\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u5d14\u9e4f\u526f\u6559\u6388\u7b49\u8001\u5e08\u4e00\u8d77\u6df1\u5ea6\u8ba8\u8bba\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002<\/strong><\/section>\n<p style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: PingFangSC-light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246);\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: PingFangSC-light;font-size: 13px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246);\"><strong>\u6b64\u6b21\u5206\u4eab\u4e3a\u516c\u5f00\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u63d0\u4f9bZoom\u623f\u95f4\u53f7\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9762\u5bf9\u9762\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u626b\u7801\u62a5\u540d\u83b7\u53d6\u63d0\u9192\u548c\u56de\u653e\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5927\u5bb6\u5728\u6587\u4e2d\u62a5\u540d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6b22\u8fce\u5206\u4eab\u7ed9\u66f4\u591a\u670b\u53cb\u4e00\u8d77\u53c2\u4e0e\u8ba8\u8bba!<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"clear: both;line-height: 0;\">\n<section style=\"line-height: 0;width: 0px;\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin: 10px 8px;white-space: normal;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);font-family: PingFangSC-light;font-size: 15px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;line-height: 0;\"><img data-fileid=\"100098629\" data-ratio=\"0.07314814814814814\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"1080\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;visibility: visible !important;width: 677px !important;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-e16cd5b776e38a4f6806c73548bdc7d4.png\"><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangSC-light;text-align: right;font-size: 13px;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;\">\n<section style=\"margin-bottom: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"clear: both;line-height: 0;\">\n<section style=\"line-height: 0;width: 0px;\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-right: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-top-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.4;\">\n<p><strong style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\"><strong style=\"text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u80cc\u666f&nbsp;<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-top: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: right;\"><strong style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: justify;\"><\/strong><br  \/><\/p>\n<h1 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><\/h1>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u6d4b\u5ea6\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u65e2\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u56e0\u5b50\uff08\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6761\u5047\u8bbe\u51e0\u4e4e\u5f88\u96be\u6ee1\u8db3\u3002\u5728\u5b58\u5728\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u6df7\u6742\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u4f7f\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u6765\u5904\u7406\u201c\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u8bef\u201d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u9690\u542b\u4e86\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<strong>Angrist\u548cImbens\u6700\u4e3a\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u5176\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u5c06\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\uff08Rubin\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u8363\u83b7\u4e862021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u6307\u7684\u662f\u63a8\u65ad\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6539\u53d8\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c06\u6765\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u63a8\u65ad\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u66f4\u9065\u8fdc\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u505a\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u901a\u8fc7\u9884\u6d4b\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6765\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e76\u5229\u7528\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u6307\u5bfc\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd1\u671f\u624d\u4e25\u8c28\u5730\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u3002\u800c\u5b83\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4e5f\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u73b0\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6280\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangSC-light;text-align: right;font-size: 13px;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;\">\n<section style=\"margin-bottom: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"clear: both;line-height: 0;\">\n<section style=\"line-height: 0;width: 0px;\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-right: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-top-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.4;\">\n<p><strong style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\"><strong style=\"text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u5185\u5bb9\u7b80\u4ecb&nbsp;<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-top: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5728\u8d4c\u535a\u65f6\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u516c\u5e73\u800c\u62bd\u7b7e\u6216\u6d17\u724c\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230\u51e0\u5343\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u4f46\u4f7f\u7528\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u968f\u673a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u662fRonald A. Fisher\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u5316\u672c\u8eab\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6765\u63a8\u65ad\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94[1]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Fisher\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5355\u5143\u8fdb\u884c\u968f\u673a\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e3a\u5728\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5206\u914d\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u5c16\u9510\u96f6\u5206\u5e03\uff08sharp null hepothesis\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u601d\u60f3\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u53cd\u9a73\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u60f3\u7684\u5c16\u9510\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5f62\u5f0f\u5316\u8bf4\u660e\uff08\u4ece\u800c\u8bc1\u660e\u5b58\u5728\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u800cJerzy Neyman\u57281923\u5e74\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u201c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\uff08potential outcome\uff09\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\uff0c\u5c06\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3aN\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002Neyman\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u8fd8\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u9690\u542b\u5730\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u4ee5\u53ca\u9690\u542b\u5730\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e86\u5bf9\u5e72\u9884\u5355\u4f4d\u5b9e\u73b0\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u6f5c\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u771f\u6b63\u6210\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u4e2d\u6700\u5177\u6709\u6df1\u8fdc\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6Donald B. Rubin\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u672c\u6b21\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7684\u4e3b\u8bb2\u4eba\u3002Rubin\u5c06\u6f5c\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u653e\u5728\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u73af\u8282\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6f5c\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u80fd\u591f\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4e5f\u80fd\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002Rubin\u53e6\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u5bf9\u8bc6\u522b\u6216\u4f30\u8ba1\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u53c8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3aRubin\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u52a0\u6df1\u4e86\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u7269\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u7b49\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u4e0e\u878d\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u672c\u6b21\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5341\u5206\u8363\u5e78\u9080\u8bf7\u5230\u4e86Donald B. Rubin\u6559\u6388\u6765\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u8bb2\u89e3\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u3002\u8bb2\u5ea7\u5c06\u4f1a\u8be6\u7ec6\u8bb2\u89e3Fisher\u548cNeyman\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d21\u732e\u4e5f\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u591a\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3aRubin\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8d21\u732e\uff0cRubin\u6559\u6388\u4e5f\u5c06\u8bb2\u89e3\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u4e3b\u8981\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u5355\u4f4d\u3001\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u3001\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u68b3\u7406\u53ca\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u5176\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u3002\u672a\u6765\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u5c06\u4f1a\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u6709\u66f4\u7d27\u5bc6\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u671f\u5f85\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6280\u672f\u4e0b\u5927\u653e\u5f02\u5f69\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangSC-light;text-align: right;font-size: 13px;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;\">\n<section style=\"margin-bottom: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"clear: both;line-height: 0;\">\n<section style=\"line-height: 0;width: 0px;\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-right: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-top-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.4;\">\n<p><strong style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\"><strong style=\"text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u4e3b\u8bb2\u4eba&nbsp;<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-top: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><img data-fileid=\"100098633\" data-height=\"289\" data-ratio=\"1.1115384615384616\"  data-type=\"jpeg\" data-w=\"260\" data-width=\"260\" style=\"width: 166px;height: 185px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-2927195cb558285bcec8c8f8f2824d0a.jpeg\"  \/><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Donald B. Rubin<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u5929\u666e\u5927\u5b66\u8bb2\u5e2d\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff0c \u7f8e\u56fd\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff0c \u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4f1a\u4f1a\u58eb\u3002Rubin\u6559\u6388\u662f\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u6700\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u7edf\u8ba1\u9886\u57df\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u57fa\u7840\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u6700\u591a\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u4f5c\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8c37\u6b4c\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ed6\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u8d85\u8fc725\u4e07\u6b21\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u622a\u81f32019\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u4ed6\u670910\u7bc7\u5355\u72ec\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u7bc7\u90fd\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u8d85\u8fc71000\u6b21\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Rubin\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\uff1a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u548c\u89c2\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\uff1b\u65e0\u54cd\u5e94\u62bd\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\u548c\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u7684\u63a8\u7406\uff1b\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4ed6\u83b7\u5f97\u8fc7\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u8457\u540d\u5956\u9879\uff0c\u662f\u5f53\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5df2\u8d85\u51fa\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u8303\u7574\uff0c\u5176\u7edf\u8ba1\u601d\u60f3\u5bf9\u751f\u7269\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u53ca\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u4f17\u591a\u9886\u57df\u5747\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Rubin\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u4f5c<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">[1] DB Rubin.(2019) Essential concepts of causal inference: a remarkable history and an intriguing future.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e0e\u89c2\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\u53ca\u5386\u53f2\u3002Rubin\u57281975\u5e74\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u8bbe\u8ba1\u9636\u6bb5\u4e0e\u5904\u7406\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5f97\u5230\u8fc5\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">[2] AP Dempster, NM Laird, DB Rubin.(1977) Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete Data Via the EM Algorithm. Proceedings of the Royal Statistical Society, 39(1), 1-22.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u4ece\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u8ba1\u7b97\u6700\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u9002\u7528\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u5217\u4e3e\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7f3a\u5931\u503c\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5bf9\u5206\u7ec4\u3001\u5220\u51cf\u6216\u622a\u65ad\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u6709\u9650\u6df7\u5408\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u65b9\u5dee\u5206\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8d85\u53c2\u6570\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8fed\u4ee3\u91cd\u52a0\u6743\u6700\u5c0f\u4e8c\u4e58\u548c\u56e0\u5b50\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">[3] RJA Little, DB Rubin.(2019) Statistical analysis with missing data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u5904\u7406\u4e22\u5931\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u7f3a\u5931\u503c\u7684\u591a\u5143\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u6839\u636e\u6570\u636e\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u673a\u5236\u884d\u751f\u51fa\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a\u95ee\u9898\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fde\u8d2f\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u91cd\u8981\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">[4] PR Rosenbaum, DB Rubin.(1983) The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41-55.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">\u5728 Donald Rubin \u65e9\u671f\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\uff0c\u63a8\u5d07\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u201c\u5339\u914d\u201d\uff08matching\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u89c2\u6d4b\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7ef4\u6570\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u5339\u914d\u5c31\u5f88\u96be\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u3002Paul Rosenbaum\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u8bfbPhD\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5728Rubin\u8bfe\u4e0a\u95ee\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c31\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u4e24\u4eba\u5408\u4f5c\u4e86\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3b\u8981\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u8bc4\u5206\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u6839\u636e\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u6765\u201c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u201d\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff1b\u6309\u7167\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u5c06\u4eba\u7fa4\u8fdb\u884c\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u201c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">[5] Rubin, D.B. (1978) Bayesian inference for causal effects: The role of randomization. The Annals of Statistics, 6, 34-58.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;text-align: left;line-height: normal;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;\">[6] Rubin, D. B. (1976) Inference and missing data. Biometrika, 63, 581-592.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u672c\u6b21\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4e5f\u5c06\u53c2\u8003W. Imbens\u548cB. Rubin\u7684\u8457\u4f5c<em>Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences<\/em>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u5b66\u4e60\u4e3b\u8981\u9605\u8bfb\u4e66\u76ee\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5927\u5bb6\u6839\u636e\u672c\u4e66\u5185\u5bb9\u79ef\u6781\u8ba8\u8bba\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><img data-fileid=\"100098630\" data-height=\"261\" data-ratio=\"1.45\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"180\" data-width=\"180\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-b62482a73dd94b8d798eabe99de9fbc7.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangSC-light;text-align: right;font-size: 13px;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;\">\n<section style=\"margin-bottom: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"clear: both;line-height: 0;\">\n<section style=\"line-height: 0;width: 0px;\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-right: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-top-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.4;\">\n<p><strong style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\"><strong style=\"text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u8ba8\u8bba\u73af\u8282&nbsp;<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-top: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u672c\u6b21\u5206\u4eab\u9080\u8bf7\u5230\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u3001\u53a6\u95e8\u5927\u5b66\u8d75\u897f\u4eae\u6559\u6388\u548c\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u5d14\u9e4f\u8001\u5e08\u4e0eRubin\u5bf9\u8bdd\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><img data-fileid=\"100098632\" data-height=\"266\" data-ratio=\"1.327313769751693\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"443\" data-width=\"201\" style=\"width: 171px;height: 227px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-0b9ff57e24609e10347b32e2da4f9b08.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5468\u6653\u534e<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u8bb2\u5e2d\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u5317\u4eac\u56fd\u9645\u6570\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u751f\u7269\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u751f\u7269\u4fe1\u606f\u7814\u7a76\u5ba4\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u5b66\u9662\u751f\u7269\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u9876\u5c16\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u751f\u7269\u7edf\u8ba1\u671f\u520aJRSSB\u3001JASA\u3001Biometrika\u3001Ann. Statist\u3001Biometrics\u3001Stat. Med.\u7b49\u53d1\u8868230\u591a\u7bc7\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u5efa\u6a21\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5728\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e0a\u5e94\u7528\u7684SCI\u8bba\u6587\uff0c130\u4f59\u7bc7\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6216\u901a\u4fe1\u4f5c\u8005\uff0cJCR\u4e00\u533a\u8bba\u6587120\u7bc7\uff0c\u603b\u5f15\u7528\u91cf12000\u4f59\u6b21\u3002\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u548c\u7075\u654f\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u7406\u8bba\u53ca\u65b9\u6cd5\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5de5\u4e1a\u53ca\u533b\u7597\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u4f1a\u9881\u53d1\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5956\u9879\u2014\u2014Mitchell\u5956\uff1b\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u7fa4\u4f53\u5927\u6570\u636e\u65b0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u3001\u4f30\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3001\u4e0e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u76f8\u5173\u751f\u547d\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3001\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3001\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u6cbb\u7597\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u8bfe\u9898\u4e0a\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u7a81\u51fa\u6210\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5468\u6653\u534e\u4e0e\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6a21\u578b\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58ebDonald Rubin\u6559\u6388\u6709\u8d85\u8fc730\u5e74\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u521b\u529e\u5e76\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53ec\u5f00\u4e09\u5c4a\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4f1a\u8bae\uff08Pacific Causal Inference Conference\uff09\uff0c\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u5b66\u6210\u679c\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6027\u4ea4\u6d41\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u505a\u51fa\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><img data-fileid=\"100098635\" data-height=\"269\" data-ratio=\"1.33\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"400\" data-width=\"203\" style=\"width: 159px;height: 211px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-54818a0805d4cef2a64deaea422d13d7.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u8d75\u897f\u4eae<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\uff0c\u53a6\u95e8\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662\u548c\u738b\u4e9a\u5357\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\u3002\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662\u6570\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e13\u4e1a\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5eb7\u5948\u5c14\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u8bbf\u95ee\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u897f\u5b89\u5927\u7565\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u535a\u58eb\u540e\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u4ece\u4e8b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7f16\u8457\u6559\u6750\u300a\u57fa\u672c\u6709\u7528\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\uff0c\u88ab\u4eac\u4e1c\u8bc4\u4e3a\u201c\u5341\u5927\u6784\u601d\u7ec6\u817b\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6750\u201d\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5728\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u3001\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\uff08\u5b63\u520a\uff09\u3001\u300a\u6570\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6280\u672f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u3001\u300aWorldEconomy\u300b\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u91cd\u8981\u671f\u520a\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u5341\u4f59\u7bc7\u3002China Economic Review, \u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u3001\u300a\u7ba1\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u300b\u3001\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\uff08\u5b63\u520a\uff09\u300b\u3001\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u300b\u7b49\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u91cd\u8981\u671f\u520a\u533f\u540d\u5ba1\u7a3f\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><img data-fileid=\"100098636\" data-height=\"238\" data-ratio=\"1.1662337662337663\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"385\" data-width=\"204\" style=\"width: 162px;height: 189px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-0d4e5633b1d79c920f04241bd759b7e9.png\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u5d14\u9e4f<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\uff0c\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u957f\u8058\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4e8e2010\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\u5305\u62ec\u5927\u6570\u636e\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u7406\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u8868\u5f81\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u79d1\u6280\u3001\u667a\u6167\u533b\u7597\u53ca\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u7b49\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u6570\u636e\u6316\u6398\u548c\u591a\u5a92\u4f53\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8457\u540d\u4f1a\u8bae\u548c\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86100\u591a\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5e76\u5148\u540e\u83b7\u5f977\u9879\u56fd\u9645\u4f1a\u8bae\u53ca\u671f\u520a\u6700\u4f73\u8bba\u6587\u5956\u3002\u4ed6\u4e8e2015\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97ACM\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b0\u661f\u5956\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97CCF-IEEE CS\u9752\u5e74\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5956\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u662fCCF\u7684\u6770\u51fa\u4f1a\u5458\u4ee5\u53caIEEE\u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u4f1a\u5458\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u6768\u4e8c\u8336\uff0c\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662\u535a\u58eb\u5728\u8bfb\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u521b\u65b0\u521b\u4e1a\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangSC-light;text-align: right;font-size: 13px;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: center;\">\n<section style=\"display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;\">\n<section style=\"margin-bottom: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"clear: both;line-height: 0;\">\n<section style=\"line-height: 0;width: 0px;\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 1 1\" style=\"vertical-align:top;\"><\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-right: 3px solid rgb(33, 166, 210);border-top-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);border-bottom-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.4;\">\n<p><strong style=\"font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\"><strong style=\"text-align: left;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);font-family: PingFangSC-light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;\">\u76f4\u64ad\u4fe1\u606f<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-top: -2px;\">\n<section style=\"float: left;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"float: right;width: 8px;height: 3px;background-color: rgb(33, 166, 210);line-height: 0;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u65f6\u95f4\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">2021\u5e7410\u670822\u65e5\u665a\u4e0a9\uff1a00-11\uff1a00<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8 B \u7ad9\u514d\u8d39\u76f4\u64ad<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><\/span><span style=\"font-size: 15px;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\">\u626b\u7801\u83b7\u53d6Zoom\u623f\u95f4\u53f7\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u5f00\u9ea6\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8bb2\u4eba\u4ea4\u6d41<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section style=\"text-align: center;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><\/span><img class=\"rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg\" data-fileid=\"100098620\" data-ratio=\"1\" data-s=\"300,640\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"400\" style=\"text-align: center;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;width: 127px;height: 127px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-1ba37e084442461caa1981aa1073cf7f.png\"  \/><\/section>\n<ul class=\"list-paddingleft-2\" style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u4ed8\u8d39\u53c2\u52a0\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u7fa4\u804a\uff0c\u83b7\u53d6\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u56de\u770b\u6743\u9650\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u793e\u533a\u79cd\u5b50\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u4e0e900\u4f59\u4f4d\u793e\u533a\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u6c9f\u901a\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u63a8\u52a8\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section style=\"margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<p><br  \/><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space: normal;\">\n<section data-mpa-template=\"t\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;text-align: center;justify-content: center;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"display: inline-block;width: auto;vertical-align: top;min-width: 10%;height: auto;box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px;border-bottom: 9px solid rgb(169, 215, 227);border-bottom-right-radius: 0px;\">\n<section powered-by=\"xiumi.us\" mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"margin-bottom: -15px;\">\n<section mpa-from-tpl=\"t\" style=\"padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;color: rgb(12, 130, 169);line-height: 2;letter-spacing: 3px;\">\n<p><strong mpa-from-tpl=\"t\">\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u542f\u52a8<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7531\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\u3001\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u4e3e\u529e\u7684<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIzMjQyNzQ5MA==&amp;mid=2247580041&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=ac9c1f715efa58ca79fc416c6e41190c&amp;chksm=e896e304dfe16a12a7cb349d945f3fc400533c5b89f6df9a407c1654ccb248f1a65d1e89fb9e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-linktype=\"2\" style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausal AI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\uff0c\u5c06\u4e3b\u8981\u9762\u5411\u4e24\u7c7b\u4eba\u7fa4\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ece\u4e8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u5411\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u5f15\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u6570\u636e\u3001\u65b0\u7b97\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u65b0\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u4ecb\u7ecd\u548c\u8bba\u6587\u63a8\u8350\u5feb\u901f\u5165\u624b\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ece\u4e8b\u5176\u4ed6\u7406\u5de5\u79d1\u6216\u4eba\u6587\u793e\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6240\u5c5e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u7efc\u8ff0\u4ecb\u7ecd\u548c\u7814\u8ba8\u5df2\u6709\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5feb\u901f\u5f00\u59cb\u5c1d\u8bd5\u90e8\u7f72\u7ed3\u5408\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u81ea2021\u5e7410\u670824\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u65e5\u4e0a\u5348 10:00-12:00\u4e3e\u529e\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u9884\u8ba1 2-3 \u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\"><br  \/><\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><img data-fileid=\"100098634\" data-height=\"124\" data-ratio=\"1\"  data-type=\"png\" data-w=\"400\" data-width=\"124\" style=\"width: 138px;height: 138px;\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/wxsync-2021-10-c854963089e70a1ddb67fd1e2ad8ce07.png\"  \/><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 13px;\">\u626b\u7801\u62a5\u540d<\/span><\/section>\n<h1 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/h1>\n<h1 style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(33, 166, 210);\"><strong>\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5927\u7eb2\u4e00\u89c8\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">Donald Rubin\uff1aEssential Concepts of causal inference<\/span><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u300c\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u5b66\u4e60\u300d<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff1aDESIGN<\/span><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff08\u7eed\uff09\uff1aANALYSIS<\/span><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u300c\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u8ba8\u300d<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u836f\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6848\u4f8b<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6848\u4f8b<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u968f\u673a\u68ee\u6797\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u5de5\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u591a\u7ea7\u6cbb\u7597\u4e0e\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u66b4\u9732<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u8350\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u56e0\u679c\u4e0e\u516c\u5e73\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 5px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u300c\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u8bba\u5b66\u4e60\u300d<\/span><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u53cc\u7a33\u5065\u4f30\u8ba1\u3001\u5904\u7406\u6781\u7aef\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u9634\u6027\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u9ad8\u7ef4\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad<\/span><\/section>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;line-height: 1.75em;\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;\">\u7ed3\u5408\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 5px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system, system-ui, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);\"><span style=\"font-size: 15px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;\">\u8bc4\u8bba\u533a\u7559\u4e0b\u4f60\u60f3\u4e0eRubin\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c0f\u7f16\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u671f\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5411Rubin\u63d0\u95ee\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u5927\u5bb6\u52a0\u5165\u76f4\u64ad\u4e00\u8d77\u8ba8\u8bba\uff01<\/span><br  \/><\/p>\n<section style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/section>\n<p style=\"margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><br  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"white-space: normal;line-height: 1.75em;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 15px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: PingFangSC-light;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgb(12, 130, 169);\">\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5bfc\u8bed 2021\u5e7410\u670811\u65e5\uff0cJoshua D. Angrist\u548cGuido W. 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