{"id":29619,"date":"2021-10-29T21:45:08","date_gmt":"2021-10-29T13:45:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=29619"},"modified":"2021-10-29T21:45:08","modified_gmt":"2021-10-29T13:45:08","slug":"%e8%af%ba%e8%b4%9d%e5%b0%94%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%a5%96%e4%b8%8e%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%8e%a8%e6%96%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=29619","title":{"rendered":"\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\uff08\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u81eahttps:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u53d1\u73b0\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u91d1\u6807\u51c6\u662f\u6267\u884c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u65bd\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u79d1\u5b66\u5956\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8bf4\uff1a\u201cCard\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u53caAngrist\u548cImbens\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8d21\u732e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u662f\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u5927\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u7b54\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5927\u6709\u88e8\u76ca\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4ece20\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8bba\u6587\u5f00\u59cb\uff0cDavid Card\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d<\/span>\uff08natural experiment\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u5206\u6790\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898[3-5]\u3002\u201c\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5206\u6790\u5355\u5143\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u6216\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u5316\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5173\u4e8e\u6700\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u667a\u6167\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u65b0\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fed\u4ee3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6108\u53d1\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0cDavid Card\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u8d21\u732e\u8005\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u6709\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\uff0cJoshua Angrist\u548cGuido Imbens\u5bf9\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08Average treatment effect, ATE\uff09<\/span>\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6839\u672c\u6027\u8d21\u732e[6]\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e2a\u4f53\u53d7\u5904\u7406\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f1a\u81ea\u6211\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5426\u9075\u5b88\u81ea\u7136\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5904\u7406\u5206\u914d\u3002Angrist\u548cImbens\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u7ec4\u6700\u5c0f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b<\/span>\uff08\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0a\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u4f30\u8ba1\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528\u2014\u2014\u5c40\u90e8\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08Local average treatment effect, LATE\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08IV\uff09<\/span>\u6846\u67b6\u4e0e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08potential outcome<\/span>\uff09\u6846\u67b6\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u6846\u67b6\u5185\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6f84\u6e05\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8bc6\u522b\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56fe  \u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u793a\u610f\u56fe\uff0c\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u8054<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e3a\u4e86\u7406\u89e3Card\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u7b80\u5355\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u4e0bAngrist\u548cImbens\u5173\u4e8e\u5c40\u90e8\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8be5\u5de5\u4f5c\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u6700\u65e9\u7531Neyman<\/span> (1923)<\/span>\u5728\u968f\u673a\u5316\u5b9e\u9a8c\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa[7]\uff0c\u540e\u6765Rubin <\/span>(1974)<\/span>\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5f15\u8fdb\u4e86\u8be5\u6846\u67b6[8]\u3002\u8be5\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5bf9\u5904\u7406\u673a\u5236\u8fdb\u884c\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u5373\u4e2a\u4f53\u5982\u4f55\u88ab\u5206\u914d\u81f3\u5904\u7406\u7ec4\u6216\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u3002Neyman\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u800cRubin\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u7684\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5f88\u65e9\u5c31\u7531Wright<\/span> (1928)<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86[9]\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u76f4\u8574\u542b\u4e8e\u7ed3\u6784\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\u3002Angrist\u548cImbens\u628a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5f15\u5165\u5230\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5c06\u5904\u7406\u7684\u5206\u914d\u673a\u5236\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7ed3\u5408\u5728\u4e86\u4e00\u8d77\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e0b\u9762\u6211\u4eec\u7b80\u5355\u6982\u62ec\u4e00\u4e0bAngrist\u548cImbens\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u8003\u8651\u4e8c\u503c\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5b8c\u6210\uff08<\/span>\u6216\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u3002\u7528Di=1\u4ee3\u8868\u4e2a\u4f53i\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u4e2d\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\uff0c\u7528Di=0\u4ee3\u8868\u4e2a\u4f53i\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\u4e2d\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u3002\u7528Yi\u4ee3\u8868\u4e2a\u4f53i\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\uff0c\u4ed6\/\u5979\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff1aYi(1)\u548cYi(0)\u3002\u5176\u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u662fYi(1)-Yi(0)\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0d\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u63a5\u53d7\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230Yi(1)\u548cYi(0)\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5373ATE=E[Yi(1)-Yi(0)]\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e2a\u4f53\u5b58\u5728\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u4f9d\u4ece\u73b0\u8c61\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u7b80\u6d01\u5730\u8868\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u6211\u4eec\u7701\u7565\u89d2\u6807i\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u5b8c\u6210\u4e2d\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u65f6\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4f7f\u7528\u51fa\u751f\u5b63\u5ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cfZ\u3002\u7528Z=1\u4ee3\u8868\u51fa\u751f\u65e5\u671f\u57287\u81f312\u6708\uff0cZ=0\u4ee3\u8868\u51fa\u751f\u65e5\u671f\u57281\u81f36\u6708\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u9009\u62e9\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u89c4\u5b9a\uff0c\u516c\u6c11\u5e74\u6ee118\u5468\u5c81\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u9000\u5b66\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c1\u81f36\u6708\u4efd\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u516c\u6c11\uff0c\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u9009\u62e9\u65e9\u9000\u5b66\u3002\u5728\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679cYi(z,d)\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dz\u548cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d60\u62161\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc6\u522b\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u6216\u5c40\u90e8\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5f15\u5165\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe1\uff1a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u5b83\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f[{Y(z,d),\u2200d,z},D(1),D(0)]\u22a5Z\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cfZ\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230Z\u5bf9\u5904\u7406D\u3001\u4ee5\u53caZ\u5bf9\u7ed3\u5c40Y\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u5fc5\u987b\u8ddf\u5904\u7406\u662f\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5047\u8bbe2\uff1aE[D(1)]\u2013E[D(0)]\u22600\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5047\u8bbe3\uff1a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u5904\u7406\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u5c40\uff0cY(1,d)=Y(0,d)=Y(d)\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dd=0,1\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5047\u8bbe3\u79f0\u4e3a\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u7ea6\u675f<\/span>\uff08exclusion restriction\uff09<\/span>\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5728\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u6613\u77e5<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6ce8\u610f\u5230D(1)-D(0)\u4ec5\u67093\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u53d6\u503c\uff1a-1\u30010\u30011\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u5f0f\u5b50\u53ef\u4ee5\u5199\u6210<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u6ce8\u610f\uff0cD(1)-D(0)=0\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u5bf9\u8bc6\u522b\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0d\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bc6\u522bD\u5bf9Y\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u51fa\u751f\u66f4\u665a\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u66f4\u65e9\u9000\u5b66\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662fD(1)-D(0)\u22650\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522bD(1)-D(0)=1\u7684\u5b50\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684D\u5bf9Y\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5047\u8bbe4\uff1aD(1)-D(0)\u22650\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u6761\u5047\u5b9a\u79f0\u4e3a\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5047\u8bbeD(1)-D(0)\u22640\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8c03\u6362Z\u76840\u548c1\u5c31\u80fd\u9000\u56de\u5230\u5047\u8bbe4\u4e86\u3002\u5728\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0cP[D(1)-D(0)=-1]=0\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u628a\u53f3\u8fb9\u7684P[D(1)-D(0)=1]\u9664\u5230\u5de6\u8fb9\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc6\u522b\u51faE[Y(1)-Y(0)|D(1)-D(0)=1]\u4e86\uff0c\u5b83\u8868\u793a\u5b50\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u5c40\u90e8\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08Local average treatment effect, LATE\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4f5c\u4f9d\u4ece\u7ec4\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08Complier average causal effect, CACE\uff09<\/span>\u3002
<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6709\u4e86LATE\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5c31\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u4e86\u3002<\/span> <\/span><\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u4e09\u3001\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\uff081\uff09\u5b8c\u6210\u4e2d\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u5bf9\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6709\u6b63\u5411\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5982\u56fe1\u6240\u793a[10]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe1\uff1a\u6536\u5165\u548c\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u6a2a\u8f74\uff1a\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\uff1b\u7eb5\u8f74\uff1a\u5468\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u5426\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff1f\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0cJoshua Angrist\u548cAlan Krueger <\/span>(1991)<\/span> \u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u751f\u65e5\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u751f\u65e5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9009\u7528\u751f\u65e5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5b8c\u6210\u4e2d\u5b66\u6559\u80b2\u5bf9\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe2\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u51fa\u751f\u65e5\u671f\u5bf9\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56fe2\uff1a\u6309\u51fa\u751f\u5b63\u5ea6\u5212\u5206\u7684\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u3002\u6a2a\u8f74\uff1a\u51fa\u751f\u5e74\u548c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff1b\u7eb5\u8f74\uff1a\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u4e2d\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u70b9\u4ee3\u8868\u751f\u65e5\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u7070\u8272\u7684\u70b9\u4ee3\u8868\u751f\u65e5\u5728\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u3002\u56fe2\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u5e74\u9650\u548c\u51fa\u751f\u65e5\u671f\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u56fe3\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6536\u5165\u548c\u51fa\u751f\u65e5\u671f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe3\uff1a\u6309\u51fa\u751f\u5b63\u5ea6\u5212\u5206\u7684\u6536\u5165\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6a2a\u8f74\uff1a\u51fa\u751f\u5e74\u548c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff1b\u7eb5\u8f74\uff1a\u5468\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5229\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u5bf9\u6536\u5165\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e3a\u6559\u80b2\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6491\u3002 <\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\uff082\uff09\u79fb\u6c11\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u56fd\u5185\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u964d\u4f4e\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002Joseph Altonji\u548cDavid Card <\/span>(1991)<\/span>\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u79fb\u6c11\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u548c\u8001\u79fb\u6c11\u4f4f\u5728\u4e00\u8d77[11]\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u628a\u662f\u5426\u548c\u8001\u79fb\u6c11\u4f4f\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f53\u4f5c\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u79fb\u6c11\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\u79fb\u6c11\u5bf9\u5f53\u5730\u5de5\u8d44\u6709\u663e\u8457\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5bf9\u5c31\u4e1a\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 <\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u56db\u3001\u56fd\u5185\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u56fd\u5185\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fd1\u4e9b\u5e74\u4e5f\u5982\u706b\u5982\u837c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u52a0\u5165\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u540e\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u66fe\u548cImbens\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5728\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u8fc7\u91cd\u8981\u6210\u679c\u3002\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u803f\u76f4\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u4e5f\u957f\u671f\u4ece\u4e8b\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u9645\u524d\u6cbf\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5c40\u90e8\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08LATE\uff09<\/span>\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u6709\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u3001\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u9886\u57df\u4e5f\u6709\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u7b49\u5b66\u8005\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u533b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u90fd\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u201c\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u662f\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u91d1\u6807\u51c6\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u51c6\u5219\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u65e8\u5728\u6539\u5584\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u8d28\u91cf\u3001\u7b79\u8d44\u548c\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5404\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8bb8\u591a\u8fdd\u53cd\u968f\u673a\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u9075\u5b88\u65b9\u6848\u89c4\u5b9a\u7684\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5408\u5e76\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u56e0\u6b7b\u4ea1\u800c\u88ab\u622a\u65ad\u6216\u4f7f\u7528\u6025\u6551\u836f\u7269\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u88ab\u7834\u574f\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e38\u89c4\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u518d\u5b8c\u5168\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5468\u6653\u534e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e09\u79cd\u8fdd\u53cd\u7406\u60f3\u968f\u673a\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0a\uff1a\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u3001\u88ab\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u3001\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u5df2\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3b\u9898\u53d1\u8868\u4e8615\u7bc7\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u9876\u7ea7\u7edf\u8ba1\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Journal of American Statistical Association<\/span>\uff08JASA\uff09<\/span>\uff0cJournal of Royal Statistical Society Series B<\/span>\uff08JRSSB\uff09<\/span>\u548cBiometrika\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff081\uff09\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u548c\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u968f\u673a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f04\u6e05\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u662f\u60a3\u8005\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u548c\u7ed3\u5c40\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u5ffd\u7565\u6b64\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6709\u504f\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u524d\u535a\u58eb\u751f<\/span>\uff08Taylor and Zhou, 2011, Biostatistics\uff09\u89e3<\/span>\u51b3\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u4ea4\u53c9\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u7684\u968f\u673a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u95ee\u9898<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u53d7\u8bd5\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u65b0\u7597\u6cd5\uff09\u4ee5<\/span>\u53ca\u7ed3\u5c40\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u586b\u8865\u65b9\u6cd5[12]\u3002\u5728\u5904\u7406\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u591a\u91cd\u586b\u8865\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u73b0\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u4f18\u70b9\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e0e\u6781\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u548c\u6392\u4ed6\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5904\u7406\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u548c\u7f3a\u5931\u7ed3\u5c40\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5728\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u91cd\u586b\u8865\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u9488\u5bf9\u5b8c\u5168\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u548c\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u591a\u91cd\u586b\u8865\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u4e09\u5230\u4e94\u4e2a\u586b\u8865\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u4f1a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u3001\u803f\u76f4\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u5468\u6559\u6388\u7684\u524d\u535a\u58eb\u540e\u7814\u7a76\u5458<\/span>\uff08Chen, Geng and Zhou, 2009, Biometrics\uff09\u89e3<\/span>\u51b3\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u5177\u6709\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u7f3a\u5931\u65f6\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u95ee\u9898[13]\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u7f3a\u5931\u6570\u636e\u4e0b<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u7f3a\u5931\u673a\u5236\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7ed3\u5c40\uff09\uff0c<\/span>\u5f53\u6ee1\u8db3\u67d0\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4e86\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u6781\u5927\u4f3c\u7136\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u77e9\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6709\u9650\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u6587\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5b83\u5df2\u88abBiometrics\u9009\u4e3a\u8ba8\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c06\u60a3\u8005\u968f\u673a\u5206\u914d\u5230\u6cbb\u7597\u7ec4\u548c\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u5728\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\uff0c\u533b\u751f\u968f\u673a\u5730\u6fc0\u52b1\u60a3\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7597<\/span>\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u6fc0\u52b1\u60a3\u8005\u6253\u75ab\u82d7\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u5b89\u6392\u60a3\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7597\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u56f0\u96be\u2014\u2014\u975e\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u63a5\u53d7\u6fc0\u52b1\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u653e\u5f03\u6cbb\u7597\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u5176\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u5efa\u8bae\u4f7f\u7528\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c06\u610f\u5411\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u63a8\u65ad\u548c\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5728\u7fa4\u7ec4\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u5316\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u7fa4\u7ec4<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u533b\u751f\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7ea7\u522b\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u4f9d\u4ece\u6027\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5219\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u7fa4\u7ec4\u4e2d\u4e2a\u4f53<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u60a3\u8005\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7ea7\u522b\u4e2d\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b<\/span>\uff08Hirano, Imbens, Rubin and Zhou, 2000, Biostatistics\uff1bFrangakis, Rubin, and Zhou, 2002, Biostatistics\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u975e\u7fa4\u7ec4\u548c\u7fa4\u7ec4\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528[14,15]\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0cHirano\u3001Imbens\u3001Rubin\u548c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4f1a\u7684Mitshell\u5956\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u4eec2002\u5e74\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u88abBiostatistics\u9009\u4e3a\u8ba8\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u540d\u8ba8\u8bba\u8005\u662f\u7687\u5bb6\u5b66\u4f1a\u4f1a\u5458\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00D.R.Cox\u3002\u5728\u5bf9\u672c\u6587\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0cCox\u63d0\u5230\u8be5\u6587\u7ae0 \u201c\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u672a\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6df7\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u5927\u91cf\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5229\u7528\u9ad8\u7ef4\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u5f3a\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5f02\u8d28\u5c40\u90e8\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u65b0\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u53d1\u8868\u5728JRSSB\u4e0a[16]\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u4e24\u9636\u6bb5\u5e7f\u4e49\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u975e\u51f8\u76ee\u6807\u51fd\u6570\u4e0b\u7684Lasso\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u6784\u9020\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u7ea0\u6b63\u4e86\u7531\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u9ad8\u7ef4\u4f30\u8ba1\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff082\uff09\u88ab\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u591a\u81c2\u968f\u673a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u901a\u5e38\u5bf9\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u53d8\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u201c\u88ab\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u6b7b\u4ea1\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e2d\u95f4\u7ed3\u5c40\u53d8\u91cf\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e14\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u201c\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u201d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u201c\u6c38\u4e45\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u201d\u5e73\u5747\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08Survivor average causal effect, SACE\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u524d\u535a\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u751f<\/span>\uff08Wang, Richardson and Zhou, 2017, JRSSB\uff09<\/span>\u521b\u9020\u6027\u5730\u4e3a\u591a\u81c2\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4e2d\u7684SACE\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u800c\u65e0\u9700\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6027\u5047\u8bbe[17]\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e09\u7ec4\u4ee5\u4e0a\u548c\u88ab\u6b7b\u4ea1\u622a\u65ad\u7684\u591a\u81c2\u968f\u673a\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5\u68c0\u9a8c\u6574\u4f53\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5927\u6837\u672c\u4e0b\u7684\u6536\u655b\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u6539\u8fdb\u4e86\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5927\u6837\u672c\u4e0b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d<\/span>\uff08Wang, Richardson and Zhou, 2017, Biometrika\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5728\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u548c\u534a\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522bSACE\u56e0\u679c\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5[18]\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u6b63\u5219\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0bSACE\u662f\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7ed3\u5c40\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5143\u6216\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u8fdd\u53cd\u90e8\u5206\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u51cf\u5c11\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff083\uff09\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u803f\u76f4\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u5176\u56e2\u961f\u8fd8\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u5373X\u5bf9\u53d8\u91cfY\u6709\u6b63\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0cY\u5bf9Z\u4e5f\u6709\u6b63\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48X\u5bf9Z\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u8d1f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8be5\u6210\u679c\u53d1\u8868\u4e8eJRSSB<\/span>\uff08Geng, Chen and Jia, 2007, JRSSB\uff09[1<\/span>9]\u3002\u539f\u6587\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u66ff\u4ee3\u6307\u6807\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4f30\u8ba1\u6096\u8bba\u4e2d\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u53d8\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5982\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u5355\u8c03\u6027\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u6096\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\uff084\uff09\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6709\u7740\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597\u65e8\u5728\u6839\u636e\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u6cbb\u7597\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u4f4d\u60a3\u8005\u4e00\u6b21\u53ea\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u79cd\u6cbb\u7597\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u60a3\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0d\u540c\u6cbb\u7597\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u8bf4\uff0c\u8bbeX\u8868\u793a\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\uff0cZ\u4e3a\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d6Z=0\u62161\uff0c\u7528Y(z)\u8868\u793a\u60a3\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7597z\u540e\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597\u5374\u9700\u8981\u6839\u636e\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528E[Y(1)-Y(0)|X]\u9009\u62e9\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6570\u503c\u8d8a\u5927\u8868\u793a\u60a3\u8005\u6536\u76ca\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5982\u679c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f02\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u5927\u4e8e0\uff0c\u5c31\u9009\u62e9Z=1\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u9009\u62e9Z=0\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u628a\u7cbe\u51c6\u533b\u7597\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u6700\u4f18\u4e2a\u6027\u5316\u6cbb\u7597\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u9996\u6b21\u63d0\u51fa\u4f7f\u7528\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u8c03\u6574\u6548\u5e94\u66f2\u7ebf<\/span>\uff08BATE\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u6548\u679c\u66f2\u7ebf<\/span>\uff08CSTE\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u8868\u793a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u751f\u7269\u6807\u5fd7\u7269\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u5e73\u5747\u5904\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u75c5\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u6700\u4f18\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e25\u683c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u65b0\u63d0\u51fa\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u6cbb\u7597\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5206\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u5468\u6653\u534e\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u63d0\u51fa\u91c7\u7528B\u6837\u6761\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f30\u8ba1CSTE \u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5927\u6837\u672c\u6570\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u6210\u679c\u53d1\u8868\u5728JASA\u4e0a[20]\u3002 <\/span><\/p>\n


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5. \u5c55\u671b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df[21]\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ec8\u6781\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u533a\u5206\u76f8\u5173\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u3002\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u4e5f\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u6311\u6218\u548c\u673a\u9047\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u52a0\u5165\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u65b0\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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[1] https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/uploads\/2021\/10\/advanced-economicsciencesprize2021.pdf<\/span><\/section>\n
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[2] https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/uploads\/2021\/10\/popular-economicsciencesprize2021-3.pdf<\/span><\/section>\n
[3] Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1992). Does school quality matter? Returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the United States. Journal of political Economy, 100(1), 1-40.<\/span><\/section>\n
[4] Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1993). Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.<\/span><\/section>\n
[5] Card, D. (1999). The causal effect of education on earnings. Handbook of labor economics, 3, 1801-1863.<\/span><\/section>\n
[6] Imbens, G. W., & Angrist, J. D. (1994). Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects. Econometrica, 62(2), 467-475.<\/span><\/section>\n
[7] Neyman, J. S. (1923). On the application of probability theory to agricultural experiments. essay on principles. section 9. (Translated and edited by DM Dabrowska and TP Speed, statistical science (1990), 5, 465-480). Annals of Agricultural Sciences, 10, 1-51.<\/span><\/section>\n
[8] Rubin, D. B. (1974). Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies. Journal of educational Psychology, 66(5), 688.<\/span><\/section>\n
[9] Wright, S. (1923). The theory of path coefficients a reply to Niles’s criticism. Genetics, 8(3), 239.<\/span><\/section>\n
[10] Angrist, J. D., & Keueger, A. B. (1991). Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings?. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 979-1014.<\/span><\/section>\n
[11] Altonji, J., & Card, D. (1991). The Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Less-Skilled Natives.\u2016 In John Abowd and Richard B.<\/span><\/section>\n
[12] Taylor, L., & Zhou, X. H. (2011). Methods for clustered encouragement design studies with noncompliance and missing data. Biostatistics, 12(2), 313-326.<\/span><\/section>\n
[13] Chen, H., Geng, Z., & Zhou, X. H. (2009). Identifiability and estimation of causal effects in randomized trials with noncompliance and completely nonignorable missing data. Biometrics, 65(3), 675-682.<\/span><\/section>\n
[14] Hirano, K., Imbens, G. W., Rubin, D. B., & Zhou, X. H. (2000). Assessing the effect of an influenza vaccine in an encouragement design. Biostatistics, 1(1), 69-88.<\/span><\/section>\n
[15] Frangakis, C. E., Rubin, D. B., & Zhou, X. H. (2002). Clustered encouragement designs with individual noncompliance: Bayesian inference with randomization, and application to advance directive forms. Biostatistics, 3(2), 147-164.<\/span><\/section>\n
[16] Qiu, Y., Tao, J., Zhou, X. H. (2021). Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Using Observational Data with High-Dimensional Covariates. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology.<\/span><\/section>\n
[17] Wang, L., Richardson, T. S., & Zhou, X. H. (2017). Causal analysis of ordinal treatments and binary outcomes under truncation by death. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology, 79(3), 719.<\/span><\/section>\n
[18] Wang, L., Zhou, X. H., & Richardson, T. S. (2017). Identification and estimation of causal effects with outcomes truncated by death. Biometrika, 104(3), 597-612.<\/span><\/section>\n
[19] Chen, H., Geng, Z., & Jia, J. (2007). Criteria for surrogate end points. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 69(5), 919-932.<\/span><\/section>\n
[20] Guo, W., Zhou, X. H., & Ma, S. (2020). Estimation of optimal individualized treatment rules using a covariate-specific treatment effect curve with high-dimensional covariates. Journal of the American Statistical Association.<\/span><\/section>\n
[21] https:\/\/www.global-sci.org\/intro\/article_detail\/mc\/19237.html<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\uff08\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/strong>\u67e5\u770b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u9093\u5b87\u660a\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u9662\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b662018\u7ea7\u535a\u58eb\u751f\uff0c\u5bfc\u5e08\u4e3a\u5468\u6653\u534e\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5174\u8da3\uff1a\u751f\u7269\u7edf\u8ba1\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u542f\u52a8<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n

\u7531\u667a\u6e90\u793e\u533a\u3001\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u8054\u5408\u4e3e\u529e\u7684<\/span>\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0eCausal AI\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63<\/a>\uff0c\u5c06\u4e3b\u8981\u9762\u5411\u4e24\u7c7b\u4eba\u7fa4\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ece\u4e8b\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u5411\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u5f15\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u6570\u636e\u3001\u65b0\u7b97\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u65b0\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u56e0\u679c\u95ee\u9898\u4ecb\u7ecd\u548c\u8bba\u6587\u63a8\u8350\u5feb\u901f\u5165\u624b\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ece\u4e8b\u5176\u4ed6\u7406\u5de5\u79d1\u6216\u4eba\u6587\u793e\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6240\u5c5e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u7efc\u8ff0\u4ecb\u7ecd\u548c\u7814\u8ba8\u5df2\u6709\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5feb\u901f\u5f00\u59cb\u5c1d\u8bd5\u90e8\u7f72\u7ed3\u5408\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u81ea2021\u5e7410\u670824\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u65e5\u4e0a\u5348 9:00-11:00\u4e3e\u529e\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u9884\u8ba1 2-3 \u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


<\/h1>\n

\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u5927\u7eb2\u4e00\u89c8\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

Donald Rubin\uff1aEssential Concepts of causal inference<\/span><\/p>\n

\u300c\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u5b66\u4e60\u300d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u6846\u67b6\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff1aDESIGN<\/span><\/section>\n

\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff08\u7eed\uff09\uff1aANALYSIS<\/span><\/p>\n

\u300c\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u8ba8\u300d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u836f\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6848\u4f8b<\/span><\/section>\n
\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6848\u4f8b<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u679c\u968f\u673a\u68ee\u6797\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u5de5\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/section>\n
\u591a\u7ea7\u6cbb\u7597\u4e0e\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u66b4\u9732<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u8350\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u679c\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/section>\n

\u56e0\u679c\u4e0e\u516c\u5e73\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u6027<\/span><\/p>\n

\u300c\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u8bba\u5b66\u4e60\u300d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u53cc\u7a33\u5065\u4f30\u8ba1\u3001\u5904\u7406\u6781\u7aef\u503e\u5411\u5f97\u5206\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/section>\n
\u9634\u6027\u5bf9\u7167\u8bd5\u9a8c<\/span><\/section>\n
\u9ad8\u7ef4\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad<\/span><\/section>\n
\u7ed3\u5408\u968f\u673a\u5316\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u62a5\u540d\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5bfc\u8bed 2021\u5e7410\u670811\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\uff08UC Berkeley\uff09\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u6559\u6388David Card\u56e0\u5176\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7a81\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\uff08MIT\uff09\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u6559\u6388Joshua Angrist\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\uff08Stanford\uff09\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u6559\u6388Guido Imbens\u56e0\u5176\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8d21\u732e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"special":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29619"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29619\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29608"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29619"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fspecial&post=29619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}