{"id":29760,"date":"2021-11-04T22:21:44","date_gmt":"2021-11-04T14:21:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=29760"},"modified":"2021-11-04T22:21:44","modified_gmt":"2021-11-04T14:21:44","slug":"%e8%af%ba%e5%a5%96%e5%a7%94%e5%91%98%e4%bc%9a%e4%b8%87%e5%ad%97%e8%af%84%e8%bf%b0%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e5%8f%97%e8%af%ba%e8%b4%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=29760","title":{"rendered":"\u8bfa\u5956\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e07\u5b57\u8bc4\u8ff0\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u53d7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u9752\u7750\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/strong>\u5317\u4eac\u65f6\u95f42021\u5e7410\u67085\u65e5\uff0c\u4e09\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff08Klaus Hasselmann\uff0cSyukuro Manabe\uff0cGiorgio Parisi\uff09\u56e0\u5176\u201c\u5bf9\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u201d\u83b7\u5f972021\u5e74\u5ea6\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956<\/a>\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u8d70\u5165\u5927\u4f17\u89c6\u91ce\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ca\u5176\u80cc\u540e\u7edf\u4e00\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u662f\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u957f\u671f\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5176\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u53ca\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u7b49\u5404\u7c7b\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u5c42\u51fa\u4e0d\u7a77\u30022021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u518d\u6b21\u80af\u5b9a\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff1a<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong>\u975e\u5e73\u8861\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u6df7\u6c8c\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u3001\u566a\u58f0\u3001\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u8bfa\u5956\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a<\/span> | \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u738b\u767e\u81fb\u3001\u90ed\u94c1\u57ce\u3001Leo\u3001\u6881\u91d1\u3001\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span> | \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> | \u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n


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\u76ee\u5f55\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

I. \u5f15\u5165<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

II. \u6c14\u5019\u7269\u7406\uff1a\u80cc\u666f\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

III. \u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

IV. \u7528\u89c2\u5bdf\u6765\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V. \u6f5c\u529b\u65e0\u9650\u7684\u65e0\u5e8f\u4e16\u754c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

VI. \u603b \u7ed3<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n


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I. <\/strong><\/strong><\/span>\u5f15\u5165<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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A. \u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u662f\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6027\u7684\u57fa\u7840<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n


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\u4ece\u79e9\u5e8f\u5230\u65e0\u5e8f\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u968f\u4e4b\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u79cd\u65e0\u5e8f\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8270\u96be\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6311\u6218\u3002\u5b83\u5f88\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u5305\u542b\u7740\u4ee5\u4e0b\u95ee\u9898: \u8fd9\u79cd\u65e0\u5e8f\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u751f\u957f\uff1f\u5b83\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u8303\u56f4\u662f\u5426\u662f\u65e0\u754c\u7684\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u65e0\u5e8f\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u5f7c\u6b64\u76f8\u5f02\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ed3\u6784\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5426\u6d89\u53ca\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6240\u6709\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ea6\u6216\u662f\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b50\u96c6\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u6d89\u53ca\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b50\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5177\u4f53\u4f1a\u662f\u54ea\u4e2a\u5b50\u96c6\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6e4d\u6d41\u70ed\u5bf9\u6d41<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6c34\u716e\u6cb8\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u60f3\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u5404\u79cd\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u70ed\u91cf\u548c\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u8f93\u8fd0\u4e0a\u6240\u8d77\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5f53\u6d1b\u4f26\u5179<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Edward Lorenz\uff09<\/span>\u5efa\u7acb\u65e8\u5728\u63cf\u8ff0\u5927\u6c14\u5bf9\u6d41<\/strong>\u7684”\u73a9\u5177\u6a21\u578b”\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u60f3\u7684\u3002\u201c\u73a9\u5177\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u662f\u745e\u5229-\u8d1d\u7eb3\u5fb7\u5bf9\u6d41<\/span>\uff08Rayleigh-Benard convection\uff09<\/span>\u65b9\u7a0b\u5728\u65e0\u5e94\u529b\u8fb9\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2aGalerkin\u622a\u65ad\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u4f53\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5176\u4e2dX\u8868\u793a\u5bf9\u6d41\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0cY\u8868\u793a\u4e0a\u5347\u6d41\u548c\u4e0b\u964d\u6d41\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6e29\u5dee\uff0cZ\u8868\u793a\u5782\u76f4\u6e29\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u63a7\u5236\u53c2\u6570\u4e3a Prandtl \u6570 \u03c3<\/span>\uff08\u6d41\u4f53\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u6027\u8d28\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u745e\u5229\u6570 Ra<\/span>\uff08\u9a71\u52a8\u5782\u76f4\u6d41\u4f53\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u65e0\u91cf\u7eb2\u6d6e\u529b\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u8868\u5f81\u533a\u57df\u51e0\u4f55\u5e38\u6570\u03b2\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6d1b\u4f26\u5179\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u4f4e\u7ef4\u6df7\u6c8c\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u73a9\u5177\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5e7f\u5ea6\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u5e7f\u6cdb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u96be\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u5168\u90e8\u5217\u4e3e\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u662f\uff1a\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u89e3\u662f\u6709\u754c\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u7684\u89e3\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u5bf9\u65b9\u7a0b\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u654f\u611f\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe1. \u5f53\u4eba\u5de5\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e00\u7ec4\u521d\u59cb\u53c2\u6570\u65f6\uff0c\u6d1b\u4f26\u5179\u7cfb\u7edf\u7535\u8def\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u76f8\u7a7a\u95f4\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5e9e\u52a0\u83b1\u53d1\u73b0\u4e09\u4f53\u95ee\u9898<\/strong>\u7684\u957f\u671f\u884c\u4e3a\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u4e2d\u8981\u590d\u6742\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u8005\u3002\u7528\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u8bb2\uff0c\u4ed6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u540c\u5bbf\u8f68\u9053\u7684\u7f20\u7ed3<\/span>\uff08tangling\uff09<\/span>\u73b0\u8c61<\/span>\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8f68\u8ff9\uff0c\u8be5\u8f68\u8ff9\u5c06\u978d\u5e73\u8861\u70b9\u8fde\u63a5\u5230\u81ea\u8eab\uff0c\u4f4d\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6d41\u5f62\u548c\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6d41\u5f62\u7684\u4ea4\u53c9\u70b9\uff09<\/span>\u5e76\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u8fd0\u52a8\u65b9\u7a0b\u5fae\u6270\u89e3\u7684\u53d1\u6563\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u52a8\u6001\u5730\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u53ef\u79ef\u5f00\u666e\u52d2\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6270\u52a8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e2d\u90a3\u4e9b\u4ee4\u4eba\u632f\u594b\u7684\u8fdc\u5927\u56fe\u666f\u4f9d\u65e7\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\u6fc0\u52b1\u5e76\u6311\u6218\u7740\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u3002\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u73bb\u5c14\u5179\u66fc\u3001Fokker-Planck\u6216\u5218\u7ef4\u5c14\u65b9\u7a0b\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6982\u7387\u5bc6\u5ea6\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u9ad8\u7ef4\u504f\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u5177\u6709\u5b9e\u9645\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f4e\u7ef4\u5e38\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6df7\u6c8c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u62bd\u8c61\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0a\u8fd8\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u90a3\u4e9b\u5927\u6c14\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u8f83\u4f4e\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u4f4e\u901f\u6d41\u5f62<\/span>\uff08slow manifold\uff09<\/span>\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f6c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u7406\u7531\u95ee\u51fa\u5982\u4e0b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\uff08\u4fe1\u53f7\uff09\u662f\u5426\u662f\u5929\u6c14\uff08\u566a\u58f0\uff09\u7684\u4f4e\u901f\u6d41\u5f62\uff1f<\/strong>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u8363\u8a89\u7684\u6210\u679c\u4e2d\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u66f4\u52a0\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u975e\u5e73\u8861\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u88ab\u63d0\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u975e\u5e73\u8861\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u5929\u6c14\u88ab\u5176\u4ed6\u7cfb\u7edf\u6240\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u533a\u5206\u5185\u90e8\u3001\u5916\u90e8\u548c\u7a81\u53d1\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe2. \u5bf9\u6d1b\u4f26\u5179\u7cfb\u7edf\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e24\u7ec4\u7565\u5fae\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7cfb\u7edf\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u521d\u503c\u654f\u611f\u800c\u5177\u6709\u53d1\u6563\u6027\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u79f0\u4e3a\u8774\u8776\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

B. \u968f\u673a\u6027\u548c\u65e0\u5e8f\u6027\u53ef\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\u7ecf\u5178\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u5047\u8bbe\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e0e\u566a\u58f0\u4e4b\u95f4\u5904\u4e8e\u5747\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u5728\u70ed\u5e73\u8861\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5931\u53bb\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u5e15\u91cc\u897f<\/span>\uff08Giorgio Parisi\uff09<\/span>\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5e73\u8861\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u975e\u5e73\u8861\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4<\/strong>\u7684\u533a\u522b\u5982\u4e0b:<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\u201c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ec5\u4ec5\u53ea\u662f\u7565\u5fae\u5931\u8861\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u4e0d\u540c\u4e86\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7531\u4e8e\u9ad8\u81ea\u7531\u80fd\u969c\u788d\uff08\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u80fd\u91cf\u969c\u788d\u6216\u71b5\u969c\u788d\uff09\u800c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fbe\u5230\u5e73\u8861\u6001\uff1a\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u901a\u5e38\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u65e0\u5e8f\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5982\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u73bb\u7483\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e9a\u7a33\u6001\u8df3\u8dc3\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e9a\u7a33\u6001\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6162\u6162\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e73\u8861\u6001\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d7\u5230\u7f13\u6162\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5916\u573a\u5e72\u6270\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6c38\u8fdc\u4fdd\u6301\u8f7b\u5fae\u7684\u5931\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u671f\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5355\u4e2a\u539f\u5b50\u7684\u632f\u52a8\uff09\u548c\u8de8\u8d8a\u969c\u788d\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u7cfb\u7edf\u672c\u8eab\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f1a\u6709\u7740\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u7684\u5206\u5c42\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u4e9a\u7a33\u6001\u5185\u70ed\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u6da8\u843d\u8017\u6563\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff1a\u7f13\u6162\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u603b\u4f53\u72b6\u6001\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u6270\u52a8\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u88ab\u8ba4\u53ef\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u590d\u6742\u7684\u968f\u673a\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6c14\u5019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\u7406\u89e3\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u566a\u58f0\u548c\u65e0\u5e8f\u6027\u80fd\u591f\u5f71\u54cd\u6240\u6709\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u80fd\u5168\u7136\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u547d\u8fd0<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u566a\u58f0\u5f15\u8d77\u53ef\u53d8\u6027\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u65f6\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u4e5f\u5c31\u53d8\u5f97\u4f3c\u662f\u800c\u975e\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
   <\/span>
<\/section>\n<\/h1>\n

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<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

II. <\/strong><\/strong><\/span>\u6c14\u5019\u7269\u7406\uff1a\u80cc\u666f\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u81ea\u4ece\u5085\u91cc\u53f6<\/span> (Fourier) <\/span>\u5f00\u59cb\u7814\u7a76\u5730\u7403\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u8017\u6563\u4e0e\u5438\u6536\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u77ed\u6ce2\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u80fd\u91cf\u8f93\u5165\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u8f93\u5165\u4e3b\u8981\u5728\u53ef\u89c1\u5149\u6ce2\u6bb5\uff0c\u8f93\u51fa\u5728\u7ea2\u5916\u6ce2\u6bb5\uff0c\u5149\u8c31\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u6c14\u5438\u6536\u7ea2\u5916\u7ebf\u7684\u884c\u661f\u7684\u5b9c\u5c45\u6027\u3002Eunice Foote \u6d4b\u91cf\u4e86\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3 <\/span>\uff08CO2<\/sub>\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5176\u5b83\u6c14\u4f53\u5bf9\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u5438\u6536\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u52a0\u70ed\u6548\u5e94\u30021861\u5e74\u3002John Tyndall \u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u5f69\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c[109]\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u5305\u542b\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u548c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u5728\u5185\u591a\u79cd\u6c14\u4f53\u5bf9\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u5438\u6536\u4e0e\u8f90\u5c04\u3002\u8fd9\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u201c\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53<\/strong>\u201d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5b9e\u9a8c\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f Svante Arrhenius [6]<\/span>\uff081903\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\uff09<\/span>\u4e8e1896\u5e74\u53d6\u5f97\u91cd\u8981\u8fdb\u5c55\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u8c08\u8bba\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8eSvante Arrhenius\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9664\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u5176\u4ed6\u8d77\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7269\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u5927\u6c14\u5bf9\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u5438\u6536\u4e0e\u51fa\u5c04\u662f\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u9762\u6781\u5177\u6311\u6218\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4e0e\u884c\u661f\u7269\u7406\u5177\u6709\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027 [91] \u3002Archer \u548c Pierrehumbert \u6536\u96c6\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u7269\u7406\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5386\u53f2 [4] \u3002\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f7b\u677e\u5730\u5728\u7ebf\u8fd0\u884c\u8f90\u5c04\u8f6c\u79fb\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span> (radiative transfer model)<\/span> \uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u4fbf\u5229\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9 Tyndall \u611f\u5230\u9707\u64bc\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5728\u4e0b\u6587\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8f90\u5c04\u8f6c\u79fb\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe3. \u7eb5\u8f74\u4e3a\u7ea2\u5916\u80fd\u91cf\u901a\u91cf\uff0c\u5355\u4f4d\u662fWm-2<\/sup>\uff0c\u6a2a\u8f74\u4e3a\u6ce2\u6570\uff0c\u5355\u4f4d\u662f cm-1<\/sup>\u3002\u5149\u6ed1\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e3a\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0b\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9ed1\u4f53\u8f90\u5c04\u8c31\u3002\u56fe\u4e2d\u952f\u9f7f\u5f62\u72b6\u66f2\u7ebf\u4ee3\u8868\u4ece\u5927\u6c14\u4e0a\u65b9\u5230\u5730\u7403\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u5149\u8c31\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6f14\u793a\u4e86\u5bf9\u6ce2\u6570\u654f\u611f\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u51fa\u5c04\u7ea2\u5916\u80fd\u91cf\u901a\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u4ece0 ppm\uff08\u6700\u4e0a\u65b9\u5b50\u56fe\uff09\u589e\u52a0\u52301000 ppm\uff08\u4e0b\u9762\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b50\u56fe\uff09\u3002\uff081\uff09\u5728\u6700\u4e0a\u65b9\u5b50\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u4e0d\u542b\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff0c\u51fa\u5c04\u7a33\u6001\u901a\u91cf\u4e3a249 Wm-2<\/sup>\u3002\uff082\uff09\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u5b50\u56fe\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u5206\u5e03\u77401000 ppm \u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff0c\u5438\u6536\u4f7f\u5f97\u66f2\u7ebf\u51fa\u73b0\u201c\u88ab\u54ac\u6389\u4e00\u53e3\u201d\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\uff08\u7531\u9ed1\u8272\u5411\u4e0b\u7bad\u5934\u6807\u8bc6\uff09\uff0c\u7ea2\u5916\u80fd\u91cf\u901a\u91cf\u964d\u4f4e\u5230223 Wm-2<\/sup>\u3002\uff083\uff09\u5728\u6700\u4e0b\u9762\u5b50\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u91cd\u65b0\u5efa\u7acb249 Wm-2<\/sup>\u7684\u7a33\u6001\uff0c\u5728\u65c1\u8fb9\u51fa\u73b0\u201c\u7fc5\u8180\u201d\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\uff0c\u7531\u9ed1\u8272\u5411\u4e0a\u7bad\u5934\u6807\u8bc6\uff09\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u6e29\u5ea6\u8f90\u5c04\uff0c\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u52a08.5\u00b0C\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece http:\/\/climatemodels.uchicago.edu \u83b7\u5f97\u5728\u7ebf\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u56fe3\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e2d\u7b49\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u5927\u6c14\u4f20\u8f93<\/span>\uff08MODTRAN\uff09<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002MODTRAN \u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u5927\u6c14\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u51fa\u5c04\u4e0e\u5438\u6536\u3002\u5f53\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u9003\u9038\u5230\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u5728\u8c31\u4e2d\u95f4\u533a\u57df\u964d\u4f4e<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u4e2d\u95f4\u5b50\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff09<\/span>\uff1a\u6ce2\u6570\u4e3a650 cm-1<\/sup>\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u50cf\u662f\u88ab\u54ac\u4e86\u4e00\u5927\u53e3\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u884c\u661f\u5411\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u901a\u91cf\u964d\u4f4e\u6240\u81f4\u3002\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6ce2\u8c31\u76f4\u5230\u5927\u7ea6500 cm-1<\/sup>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5728\u66f4\u5927\u6ce2\u6570\u518d\u6b21\u4e3b\u5bfc\u3002\u5728\u5927\u7ea61050 cm-1<\/sup>\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5904\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u66f4\u5c0f\u7684\u88ab\u54ac\u6389\u4e00\u53e3\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u81ed\u6c27\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5efa\u7acb\u7a33\u6001\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e24\u4fa7\u3001\u7531\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u50cf\u201c\u7fc5\u8180\u201d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u6e29\u5ea6\u8f90\u5c04\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 8.5\u00b0C\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56fe3\u4e2d\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u8c31\u63d0\u793a\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u6700\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u662f\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u201c\u63a7\u5236\u201d\u96e8\u4f55\u65f6\u4f55\u5730\u964d\u843d\u4ee5\u53ca\u5177\u4f53\u964d\u6c34\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6c34\u6587\u5faa\u73af\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u7684\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u6bcf\u4e0a\u5347 1 \u5ea6\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u591a\u627f\u8f7d\u5927\u7ea6 7% \u7684\u6c34\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u53cd\u9988<\/strong><\/span> (water vapor feedback)<\/span> \u3002\u968f\u7740\u884c\u661f\u53d8\u70ed\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u7684\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u542b\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4f7f\u5f97\u6e29\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u53cd\u590d\u9012\u8fdb\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u6c34\u6587\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u7406\u89e3\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u5de8\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u63a7\u5236\u5176\u5b83\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u7684\u542b\u91cf\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u3002\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u5927\u6c14\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7269\u7406\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u5e26\u6765\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/strong>\u6b63\u5982\u7269\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5927\u591a\u6570\u770b\u4f3c\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u901a\u5f80\u7b54\u6848\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u662f\u66f2\u6298\u7684\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0e\u5931\u8d25\u548c\u9519\u8bef\u76f8\u4f34\u3002\u56fe4\u7684\u57fa\u6797\u66f2\u7ebf<\/strong><\/span> (Keeling Curve) <\/span>\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e3b\u8981\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u8be5\u66f2\u7ebf\u662f\u6807\u5fd7\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5177\u6709\u5206\u6790\u7cbe\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8574\u542b\u7740\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u9884\u793a\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb8\u4e2a\u51b0\u5ddd\u671f\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u5927\u7ea680\u4e07\u5e74\u2014\u2014\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u4ece\u672a\u9ad8\u4e8e300 ppm\uff0c\u5728\u51b0\u5ddd\u671f-\u95f4\u51b0\u671f\u7684\u6700\u5927\u53d8\u5316\u4e3a\u5927\u7ea6130ppm\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e38\u5927\u4e8e10\u5ea6 [25] \u3002\u5728\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u5982\u6b64\u591a\u952f\u9f7f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe4. \u57fa\u6797\u66f2\u7ebf\u662f\u4ee5\u540e\u6765\u7684 Charles Keeling \u547d\u540d\u7684\uff0c\u6b64\u89c2\u6d4b\u9879\u76ee\u662f Keeling \u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u3002\u56fe\u4e2d\u66f2\u7ebf\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u83ab\u7eb3\u7f57\u4e9a\u706b\u5c71\u4e8e 1958-2021 \u5e74\u6bcf\u6708\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u3002\uff08\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e3a\u65af\u514b\u91cc\u666e\u65af\u6d77\u6d0b\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff1bhttps:\/\/keelingcurve.ucsd.edu .\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n


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<\/strong><\/strong>III. <\/strong><\/strong><\/span>\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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A. \u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u578b\uff08Energy balance models\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n


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\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u8f93\u5165\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u5e74\u5ea6\u5468\u671f\u6027\u70ed\u9a71\u52a8\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u77e5\u9053\uff1a\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u5fc5\u987b\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u542b\u65f6\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u6765\u6355\u83b7\u6c14\u5019\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6f14\u5316\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6570\u503c\u5efa\u6a21\u63a8\u8fdb\u4e86\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8026\u5408\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c06\u542b\u65f6\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u5305\u542b\u8fdb\u6765\u3002\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u5927\u6c14\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u3001\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u3001\u9646\u5730\u548c\u751f\u7269\u5708\u5fc5\u987b\u9075\u5faa\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5168\u5c40\u8026\u5408\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u786e\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u67d0\u4e2a\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8e\u4f55\u79cd\u5e73\u8861\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u4e00\u7c7b\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u578b\u662f Budyko-Sellers \u6a21\u578b [15, 28, 78, 101] \u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u5e74\u4ece\u5168\u5c40\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5199\u51fa\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5176\u4e2d T \u4e3a\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c Cp<\/sub> \u662f\u6709\u6548\u70ed\u5bb9\uff0cS0<\/sub>\u548c \u03b1 \u5206\u522b\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u77ed\u6ce2\u8f90\u5c04\u901a\u91cf\u548c\u8868\u9762\u53cd\u5c04\u7387\uff0c\u03c3 \u4e3a Stefan-Boltzmann \u5e38\u6570\uff0c\u03b5 \u4e3a\u8f90\u5c04\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e0d\u52a8\u70b9\u4e3a<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5373\u5165\u5c04\u592a\u9633\u901a\u91cf<\/span>\u4e0e\u5411\u4e0a\u5730\u9762\u901a\u91cf<\/span>\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u7ed9\u51fa\u7a33\u6001\u6e29\u5ea6<\/span>\u3002\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5728\u8be5\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u53ea\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u884c\u661f\u53cd\u5c04\u7387 \u03b1 \u4e0a\u3002\u536b\u661f\u786e\u5b9a \u03b1 \u8fd1\u4f3c\u4e3a 0.3\uff0c\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u9ad8\u53cd\u5c04\u7684\u4e91\u5c42<\/span>\uff08\u8fbe\u52300.9\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5438\u6536\u7684\u6d77\u6d0b\uff080.2\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cTBP<\/sub>\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u6e29\u5ba4\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u8be5\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u88f8\u884c\u661f\u201d\u6e29\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08bare planet temperature\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6bd4\u771f\u5b9e\u6e29\u5ea6\u8981\u4f4e\uff0cTBP<\/sub>\u2248-15\u00b0C [5, 91] \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe5. Svante Arrhenius\u57281896\u5e74\u6240\u505a\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c[6]\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u5355\u5c42\u5927\u6c14\u201d\u5438\u6536\u548c\u91ca\u653e\u5730\u8868\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u5927\u6c14\u51fa\u5c04\u548c\u5438\u6536\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u76f8\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5927\u6c14\u662f\u7b49\u70ed\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6709<\/span>\u3002\uff08\u4fee\u6539\u81ea[5]\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u56fe5\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u770b\u5230\u5927\u6c14\u7ea2\u5916\u6548\u5e94\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5728\u7a33\u6001\u4e0b\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u5927\u6c14\u5c42\u901a\u91cf\u7684\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u516c\u5f0f\uff1aFG<\/sub>=2FA<\/sub>\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5730\u8868\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u5728\u5927\u6c14\u4e0a\u65b9<\/span>\u3002\u4e24\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff1a\uff08a\uff09\u5927\u6c14\u4e0a\u65b9\u4ee5\uff08\u51b7\uff09\u88f8\u884c\u661f\u6e29\u5ea6 TA<\/sub>=TBP<\/sub> \u5411\u7a7a\u95f4\u8f90\u5c04\uff0c\uff08b\uff09\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u6bd4\u8f83\u6e29\u548c<\/span>\u3002<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5c06\u6b64\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230N\u5c42\u5927\u6c14\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0 TG<\/sub>=(1+N)1\/4<\/sup> TBP<\/sub>\u3002\u5927\u6c14\u4e0a\u65b9\u5411\u7a7a\u95f4\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e3aTBP<\/sub>\u3002\u8fd9\u663e\u7136\u662f\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u6e29\u5ba4\u6548\u5e94\u7684\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u7684\u8c31\u5438\u6536\u3001\u53cd\u9988\u4ee5\u53ca\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u5b83\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u4f4e\u9636\u8fc7\u7a0b\u88ab\u535a\u5b66\u7684 Svante Arrhenius \u6240\u7406\u89e3\u30021896 \u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u5173\u4e8e\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u5438\u6536\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cdTG<\/sub>\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d [6] \uff0cArrhenius \u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5927\u6c14\u67f1\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong><\/span>\uff08atmospheric column models\uff0c\u4ec5\u5305\u542b\u5782\u76f4\u65b9\u5411\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u6f14\u53d8\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u5c45\u4e8e\u6838\u5fc3\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5728\u540e\u7eed\u65e5\u76ca\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5904\u7406\u4e2d\u4e0d\u65ad\u5f97\u5230\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5728\u6240\u77e5\u7684\u5e26\u9971\u548c<\/strong><\/span> (band-saturation)<\/span> \u6548\u5e94\u4e5f\u662f Arrhenius \u6240\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u5229\u7528\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u548c\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u7684\u8c31\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f Tyndall \u6240\u505a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u6570\u636e [109] \u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u4f4e\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u538b\u529b\uff09<\/span>\u4e0b\u5438\u6536\u968f\u7740\u6e29\u5ea6\u7ebf\u6027\u589e\u957f\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u968f\u7740\u6d53\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fdb\u5165\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u90fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u5438\u6536\u3002Arrhenius \u4e0d\u4ec5\u786e\u5b9a\u5927\u6c14\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9971\u548c\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u8c31\u6d4b\u91cf\u8868\u660e\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u8fd8\u8fdc\u8fdc\u4e0d\u9971\u548c [91] \u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u8fd8\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u548c\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u5782\u76f4\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5927\u6c14\u9971\u548c\uff0cTG<\/sub>\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8f90\u5c04\u4f1a\u4ece\u672a\u9971\u548c\u7684\u7a00\u8584\u4e0a\u5c42\u9003\u9038\u5230\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0cKnut \u00c5ngstrom \u4e89\u8bba\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9\u8f90\u5c04\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u4f1a\u5438\u6536\u7531\u4e8e\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u8981\u5438\u6536\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u4f4e\u5c42\u3001\u6e7f\u5ea6\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u70ed\u5e26\u5927\u6c14\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u5411\u7a7a\u95f4\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u51b7\u7684\u4e0a\u5c42\u5927\u6c14\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8c31\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u00c5ngstrom \u7684\u8bba\u636e\u662f\u591a\u4f59\u7684 [4, 91] \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

Arrhenius \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u73b0\u5728\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u5ea6<\/strong>\u201d\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f53\u5927\u6c14\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u52a0\u500d\u65f6\uff0c\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6 TG<\/sub> \u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u8303\u56f4\u4e3a2.5-4\u00b0C\uff0cArrhenius \u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a\u5927\u7ea66\u00b0C\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5dee\u522b\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5f53\u65f6\u5438\u6536\u8c31\u7cbe\u5ea6\u7684\u9650\u5236\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fe5\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5927\u6c14\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7c97\u7cd9\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u968f\u7740\u73b0\u4ee3\u5149\u8c31\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u524d\u6587\u6240\u8ff0\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u2014\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u4e0a\u5c42\u51b7\u5927\u6c14\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u8f90\u5c04\u5230\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8c31\u8303\u56f4\u2014\u2014\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u5305\u542b\u8fdb\u6765\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5bfc\u81f4\u540e\u9762\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u88ab\u4ed6\u6240\u7528\u7684\u8c31\u6570\u636e\u6240\u4fee\u8865\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

Arrhenius \u4e5f\u5173\u6ce8\u73b0\u4ee3\u7269\u7406\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u7684\u5176\u5b83\u91cd\u8981\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8d64\u9053-\u6781\u70b9\u80fd\u91cf\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861<\/strong>\u548c\u51b0\u53cd\u5c04\u7387\u53cd\u9988<\/strong><\/span> (ice-albedo feedback) <\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u540e\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u5f0f(1)\u4e2d\u53cd\u5c04\u7387\u4e0e\u7eac\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u2014\u2014\u51b7\u548c\u70ed\u2014\u2014\u4e0e\u5317\u6781\u5feb\u901f\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u51b0\u5757\u7d27\u5bc6\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u786e\u5b9e<\/strong>\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u51b0\u671f\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u6570\u503c\u4e3a 150 ppm\uff0c\u800c\u4ece\u51b0\u82af\u7814\u7a76 [25] \u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u4e3a180-200 ppm\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u71c3\u7164\u6d88\u8017\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u5927\u6c14\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u52a0\u500d\u505a\u51fa\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u5728 Arrhenius \u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u4e3a\u73b0\u4ee3\u4ee5\u5404\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u5f62\u5f0f\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u67f1\u6a21\u5f0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6982\u5ff5\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u4e00\u53c8\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e86<\/strong>\u3002Arrhenius \u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u9884\u77e5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e3a\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u8981\u7d20\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u8003 [4] \u4e2d\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

B. \u5e7f\u4e49\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u578b\uff08EBMs\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b63\u5982\u5728\u00a7III A\u5c0f\u8282\u6240\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5904\u7406\u6574\u4f53\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u8f90\u5c04\u8f6c\u79fb\u7279\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63a8\u5e7f\u5230\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u3001\u5730\u533a<\/span>\uff08\u8de8\u8fc7\u7eac\u5ea6\u65b9\u5411\u5730\u5e26\uff09<\/span>\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u91cf\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u7eac\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684TG<\/sub>\u3001\u03b1\u548c\u5b50\u5348\u7ebf\u65b9\u5411<\/span>\uff08\u7ecf\u7ebf\u65b9\u5411\uff09<\/span>\u70ed\u8f93\u8fd0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u542b\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u884c\u661f\u51b0\u7ebf\u4ee5\u53ca\u7a7a\u95f4\u51b0\u53cd\u5c04\u7387\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6270\u52a8\u4f7f\u5f97\u51b0\u76d6\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5438\u6536\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u53d8\u5c0f\uff0c\u7531\u5f0f(1)\u5f97\u5230\u5b83\u4f1a\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u53d8\u51b7\uff0c\u51b0\u7ee7\u7eed\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u9a71\u52a8\u53d8\u51b7\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5f53\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u901a\u91cf S0<\/sub> \u4f4e\u4e8e\u51e0\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u6025\u5267\u8f6c\u53d8\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u51b0\u8986\u76d6\u7684\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u96ea\u7403\u201d\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u89e3\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5 [79] \u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e0d\u52a8\u70b9\uff1b<\/span>\u96ea\u7403\u548c\u95f4\u51b0\u671f\uff08\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff09\u90fd\u662f\u7a33\u5b9a\u6001\uff0c\u8fd1\u4f3c\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u51b0\u8986\u76d6\u5219\u662f\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6001<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u8c31\u65b9\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6570\u503c\u6c42\u89e3 Navier-Stokes \u65b9\u7a0b\u6240\u7528\u5230\u7684\u8c31\u65b9\u6cd5 [77] \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4eba\u4eec\u5f88\u65e9\u5c31\u5f97\u5230\u51b0\u6cb3\u65f6\u671f\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u8bc1\u636e [2] \uff0c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217 EBMs \u6a21\u578b\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u591a\u79cd\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u72b6\u6001\u5374\u88ab\u770b\u505a\u662f\u4e0d\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5bf9\u201c\u6838\u51ac\u5929\u201d\u2014\u2014\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u70df\u5c18\u963b\u6321\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u2014\u2014\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u76f4\u5230\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u4eba\u4eec\u624d\u53d1\u73b0\u5927\u7ea6 7\u4ebf\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u65b0\u5143\u53e4\u4ee3\u65f6\u671f\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u51b0\u5ddd\u4f5c\u7528 [54, 100] \uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86 EBMs \u6a21\u578b [15, 101] \u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u91cf\u5de5\u5177\u6240\u53d1\u6325\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u6355\u83b7\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6001\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5305\u542b\u5f88\u591a\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7269\u7406\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u63a8\u5e7f\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u6b63\u5982 \u00a7III D \u5c0f\u8282\u6240\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c42\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u7269\u7406\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

C. \u6570\u503c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u51fa\u73b0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

1. \u5e8f\u66f2<\/span><\/strong>
<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3002\u8fd1\u4f3c\u4e5f\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u6570\u5b66\u89e3\u6790\u8fd8\u662f\u5bf9\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u6570\u503c\u6c42\u89e3\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6781\u9650\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5931\u6548\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u827a\u672f\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u7ed9\u51fa\u5408\u7406\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u660e\u786e\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u5931\u6548\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u4e49\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u4e25\u683c\u201d\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5927\u578b\u8ba1\u7b97\u8bbe\u5907\u7684\u83b7\u53d6\u65e5\u76ca\u65b9\u4fbf\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u201c\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u51e0\u4e4e\u7b49\u4ef7\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span> (Global Climate Models, GCMs) <\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f EBMs \u3002\u5f53\u4ee3\u7684 GCMs \u5c06\u5927\u6c14\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u3001\u51b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u5e76\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\u6b21\u7f51\u683c\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08sub-grid scale\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span>\uff08\u6bd4\u5982 [38] \uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u503c\u6c42\u89e3\u8d28\u91cf\u3001\u52a8\u91cf\u548c\u80fd\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u5904\u7406\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5229\u7528\u6570\u636e\u540c\u5316 [94] \uff0c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u9ad8\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u673a\u5236 [52] \u6765\u6539\u8fdb GCMs \u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019<\/span>\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6d41\u4f53\uff09<\/span>\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u672c\u8d28\uff0cGCMs \u662f\u76ee\u524d\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6700\u590d\u6742\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u51b3\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9ad8\u7eac\u5ea6\u4f4d\u7f6e [1] \u3002\u56e0\u4e3a GCMs \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u5904\u7406\u7684\u9ad8\u7ef4\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u62bd\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cGCM \u50cf\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7c97\u7c92\u5316\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u578b\uff1b\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7531\u6240\u6709\u5df2\u77e5\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u6b21\u7f51\u683c\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7ed3\u679c\u6240\u4ee3\u8868\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Klaus Hasselmann\uff09<\/span>\u6700\u65e9\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6982\u5ff5 [42] \u2014\u2014\u5929\u6c14\u7684\u6df7\u6c8c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5e26\u6765\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u5fc5\u987b\u5305\u542b\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d [11, 20, 29, 59, 80, 81] \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

2. \u8d77\u6e90<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5165\u5c04\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u4e0e\u51fa\u5c04\u7ea2\u5916\u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u5dee\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u7eac\u5ea6\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u572840\u00b0N\u548c40\u00b0S\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709 5PW <\/span>\uff08\u5343\u4e07\u4ebf\u74e6\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u8d85\u51fa\u3002\u80fd\u91cf\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u6c14\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u4f20\u8f93\u5230\u9ad8\u7eac\u5ea6\u5730\u533a<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u70ed\u91cf\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u4e0e\u65cb\u8f6c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6d41\u4f53\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u548c\u6df7\u5408\u7d27\u5bc6\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u5927\u6c14\u627f\u8f7d\u7740 5PW \u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff0c\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u7531\u6d77\u6d0b\u4f20\u8f93\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53d7\u5730\u7406\u73af\u5883\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u53d7\u5236\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7531\u4e8e\u51b0\u53cd\u5c04\u7387\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

1950\u5e74\uff0c\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u9ad8\u7b49\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684 Jule Charney \u548c\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc<\/span> (John von Neumann) <\/span>\u9886\u5bfc\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u9879\u76ee [19] \u3002\u8fd9\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u6c14\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u7ec6\u81f4\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u2014\u2014\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/strong><\/span> (geophysical fluid dynamics, GFD)<\/span> [114, 115] \u2014\u2014 \u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u53d1\u5c55\uff0cGFD\u3001\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u5efa\u6a21\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u6587\u5316\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u6d3e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u6709\u5171\u540c\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5305\u62ec Bert Bolin \u5728\u5185\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u5148\u9a71\u90fd\u88ab\u62db\u52df\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u4e2d\u6765\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6765\u8bbf\u95ee\uff0c\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e13\u5bb6\u7ecf\u9a8c [112] \u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7684\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba Joseph Smagorinsky \u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002\u4ed6\u540e\u9762\u53bb\u5230\u4e86\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff0c\u5e76\u5728 1959 \u5e74\u62db\u52df\u4e86\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Syukuro Manabe\uff09<\/span>\uff0c1961 \u5e74\u8058\u8bf7\u4e86 Kirk Bryan\u3002\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u5f88\u5feb\u805a\u96c6\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u76f4\u5230 1960 \u5e74 Cecil E. Leith \u72ec\u7acb\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u73b0\u5728\u516c\u8ba4\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u4ec5\u9488\u5bf9\u5927\u6c14\u7684 GCM <\/span>(AGCM) <\/span>\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u7ec6\u8282\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0 [39] \u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u5e73\u6d41\u5c42\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u6c34\u6587\u5faa\u73af\u548c\u4e91\u7684\u8868\u793a\u3002Leith \u7ed9\u51fa\u7a0b\u5e8f\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u6f14\u793a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7ad9\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

3. \u5173\u952e\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u578b [61-63] \u57fa\u4e8e\u56fa\u4f53\u7269\u7406\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u505a Arrhenius \u8bbe\u60f3\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u66f4\u65e9\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7814\u7a76 [60, 75] \u5173\u6ce8\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u8f90\u5c04\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5305\u542b\u8fdb\u67f1\u6a21\u5f0f [62] \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Wetherald [62] \u5c06\u6574\u4e2a\u5927\u6c14\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u7ef4\u7684\u67f1\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u6e7f\u5ea6\u548c\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u3002\u4ece\u521d\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\uff08a\uff09\u8f90\u5c04\u8f6c\u79fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u7684\u8c31\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5360\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u6743\u91cd\u7684\u662f\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\uff1b\uff08b\uff09\u5bf9\u6d41\u8c03\u6574<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5bf9\u5782\u76f4\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u8fdb\u884c\u5982\u4e0b\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u67f1\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u8f90\u5c04\u8f6c\u79fb\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u8870\u51cf\u7387\u4e3a~-15\u00b0C\/km\uff0c\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u7edd\u70ed\u8870\u51cf\u7387\u4e3a~-10\u00b0C\/km\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u968f\u7740\u7a7a\u6c14\u5347\u9ad8\u6c34\u51dd\u7ed3\u4f1a\u91ca\u653e\u6f5c\u70ed\uff0c\u8fd9\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u201c\u6e7f\u6da6\u201d\u8870\u51cf\u7387~-6\u00b0C\/km\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u8be5\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6e7f\u6da6\u8870\u51cf\u7387\u6709\u6240\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u8868\u9762\u52a0\u70ed\u4fbf\u4f1a\u9a71\u52a8\u5782\u76f4\u8fd0\u52a8\u3001\u76f8\u53d8\u548c\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u4f34\u7684\u70ed\u91ca\u653e<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Strickler [61] \u7684\u5bf9\u6d41\u8c03\u6574\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Wetherald [62] \u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u5317\u534a\u7403\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7eac\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u6e7f\u5ea6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u4f9d\u8d56\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u7edd\u5bf9\u6e7f\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u9971\u548c\u84b8\u6c7d\u538b\uff09<\/span>\u654f\u611f\u5730\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6e29\u5ea6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec [62]\u91cd\u590d\u4e86\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Strickler [61]\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u7684\u533a\u522b\u5728\u4e8e\u540e\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u66f4\u65e9\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u6587\u7ae0\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u76f8\u5bf9<\/span>\uff08\u7edd\u5bf9\uff09<\/span>\u6e7f\u5ea6\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u6355\u83b7\u4e86\u4e0a\u9762\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u201c\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u53cd\u9988\u201d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u56fe 5 \u7684\u6ce8\u89e3\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u4e0a\u5c42\u8f90\u5c04\u5230\u66f4\u4f4e\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7f\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u6355\u6349\u76f8\u5bf9\u6e7f\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u7684\u6d53\u5ea6\u548c\u6e29\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c47\u96c6\u6548\u5e94\u5bfc\u81f4\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Wetherald [62] \u6240\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5373\u5927\u6c14\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u52a0\u500d\u5bfc\u81f4 2.3 \u00b0C\u7684\u53d8\u6696\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

1975\u5e74\uff0c\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Wetherald [63] \u901a\u8fc7\u6c42\u89e3\u5168\u7403\u70ed\u3001\u8d28\u91cf\u3001\u52a8\u91cf\u548c\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u8026\u5408\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6539\u8fdb\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec 1967 \u5e74\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97 [62]\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2aGCM\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5229\u7528\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u662f\u5927\u7ea6 0.5 MB \u7684 RAM\u3002\u5f53\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u4ece 300 ppm \u52a0\u500d\u5230 600 ppm\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u8868\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0 2.93 \u00b0C\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u65e0\u6d77\u6d0b\u70ed\u8f93\u8fd0\u3001\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u7684\u5730\u5f62\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e91\u5c42\u56fa\u5b9a\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b63\u5982 \u00a7III A \u5c0f\u8282\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0cArrhenius \u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u76f4\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u4f9d\u7136\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u533a\u5206 Arrhenius \u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4<\/span>\u533a\u5206\u5e73\u8861\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff08ECS\uff09\u4e0e\u77ac\u65f6\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff08TCS\uff09\u7684\u5dee\u522b<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u3002ECS \u9884\u671f\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7acb\u5373\u52a0\u500d\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b0\u7684\u7a33\u6001\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u4f46\u8fbe\u5230\u7a33\u6001\u6240\u9700\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u5927\u6c14\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u4ece 0 ppm \u589e\u52a0\u5230 1000 ppm \uff0c\u5982\u56fe 3 \u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e2d\u7b49\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u5927\u6c14\u4f20\u8f93\u6a21\u578b<\/span> (MODTRAN) <\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u5c55\u793a ECS \u7684\u601d\u60f3\u3002MODTRAN \u4f7f\u7528\u4e0e\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Wetherald [62] \u540c\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6765\u6a21\u62df\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u51fa\u5c04\u4e0e\u5438\u6536\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u662f\u5229\u7528\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\u8c31\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5f53\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u91ca\u653e\u5230\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\uff0c\u9003\u9038\u5230\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u7ea2\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u5728\u4e2d\u95f4\u8c31\u6bb5\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e2d\u95f4\u5b50\u56fe\u770b\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u91cd\u65b0\u8fbe\u5230\u7a33\u6001\uff0c\u5b83\u65c1\u8fb9\u7684\u201c\u7fc5\u8180\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u5360\u636e\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff09<\/span>\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u6e29\u5ea6\u8f90\u5c04\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5730\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u4f1a\u5347\u9ad8 8.5\u00b0C\u3002\u8be5\u8ba1\u7b97\u91cd\u65b0\u5e73\u8861\u4e86\u67f1\u80fd\u91cf\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Wetherald [62, 63] \u6240\u505a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9700\u8981\u65b0\u7684\u5730\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5f53\u4ee3 GCM \u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u533a\u95f4\u5728 2.5-4\u00b0C\uff0c\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Wetherald \u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u6cd5[62, 63]\u7ed9\u51fa 2.3-2.93\u00b0C\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6b63\u5982 \u00a7III A \u5c0f\u8282\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053 Arrhenius \u5173\u4e8e ECS \u7684\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u5927\u7ea66\u00b0C\uff09<\/span>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4e0a\u9650<\/span>\uff08\u5438\u6536\u8c31\u7cbe\u5ea6\u548c\u7b49\u70ed\u5927\u6c14\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c Wetherald [62, 63] \u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u662f\u663e\u8457\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u9884\u793a\u7740\u589e\u52a0\u6a21\u578b\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u662f\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u6f14\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f TCS \u6240\u8574\u542b\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<\/span>\u77ac\u65f6\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff08TCS\uff09\u786e\u5b9e\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u4eba\u7c7b<\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u3002ECS \u548c TCS \u90fd\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\uff0c\u6b63\u662f Hasselmann \u5efa\u8bae\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u6765\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u91cf\u76f8\u6bd4\u5230\u5e95\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

D. \u968f\u673a\u7406\u8bba \uff08Stochastic Theory\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u884c\u661f\u5927\u6c14\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u77ed\u6ce2\u8f90\u5c04\u901a\u91cf\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0d\u5747\u5300\u6027\u9a71\u52a8\u5927\u6c14\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6d41\u4f53\u5bf9\u6d41\u548c\u6ce2\u4f20\u64ad [31] \u5bfc\u81f4\u957f\u7a0b\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u6240\u8ff0\u7684 GCMs \u5c3d\u91cf\u5305\u542b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u8ba1\u7b97\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u53ef\u53d8\u6027\u5728\u89c2\u6d4b\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u6d53\u539a\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08deterministic model\uff0c\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u4efb\u4f55\u968f\u673a\u6210\u5206\uff09<\/span>\u4e3b\u8981\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u6784\u9020 GCMs \u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8003\u8651\u5168\u7403 Budyko-Sellers EBM \uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5f0f(1) \u3002\u5047\u5b9a\u771f\u5b9e\u5730\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6 T \u4e0e\u5e73\u5747\u5730\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6 TS<\/sub><\/span>\u76f8\u5dee\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 T=TS<\/sub>+x\uff0c|x|<<|TS<\/sub>| [73]\u3002\u9ad8\u9891\u6da8\u843d<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u4e0e\u5929\u6c14\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6da8\u843d\uff09<\/span>\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u767d\u566a\u58f0\u03b7(t)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5e38\u6570\u632f\u5e45<\/span>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 x \u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6f14\u5316\u7531\u8fc7\u963b\u5c3c Ornstein-Uhlenbeck \u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5e7f\u4e49\u6717\u4e4b\u4e07\u65b9\u7a0b\u8868\u793a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u91cc \u03bb \u8868\u793a\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u6e29\u5ea6TS<\/sub>\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u6c14\u5019\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7a33\u5b9a\u5ea6\u3002\u53cd\u5c04\u7387\u654f\u611f\u5ea6<\/span>\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u800c\u5411\u5916\u7684\u957f\u6ce2\u8f90\u5c04\u901a\u91cf\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u4e3a\u6b63\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u5bf9TS<\/sub>\u7684\u504f\u79bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4fe1\u53f7\u5904\u7406\u9886\u57df\u5173\u4e8e\u538b\u5f3a\u573a [76] \u7684\u8c31\u7279\u6027\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f Mitchell [71] \u5229\u7528\u81ea\u6cbb\u90ce\u4e4b\u4e07\u65b9\u7a0b<\/span>\uff08autonomous Langevin equation\uff0c\u81ea\u6cbb\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u793a\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u7269\u7406\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e0d\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\uff09<\/span>\u5bf9\u6d77\u6d0b\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u540c\u65f6 Hasselmann \u521b\u65b0\u6027\u5730\u5229\u7528\u57fa\u672c\u7269\u7406\u6982\u5ff5\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u8868\u9762\u6d77\u6d0b\u6ce2\u8c31 [40, 41] \uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6df1\u5165\u4e86\u89e3\u6d77\u9762\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6e4d\u6d41\u548c\u6d1b\u4f26\u5179\u6df7\u6c8c\u5929\u6c14\u4e2d\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4ed6\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u5bf9\u6d77\u6d0b\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u63a8\u5e7f\u7684\u968f\u673a\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u201c\u566a\u58f0\u201d\u4e0e\u4e0a\u9762\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u201c\u5929\u6c14\u201d\u6709\u5173 [42] \u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7814\u7a76\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u52a8\u673a\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

1. Hasselmann \u968f\u673a\u6846\u67b6\u7b80\u8ff0<\/span><\/strong>
<\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a Hasselmann \u968f\u673a\u6846\u67b6[42]\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u8003\u8651\u6240\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u77e2\u91cf x<\/strong>=(x1<\/sub><\/span>,…,xi<\/sub>) \u548c y<\/strong>=(y1<\/sub>,…,yi<\/sub>) \u8868\u793a\u7684\u4e00\u7ec4\u8026\u5408\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u65b9\u7a0b\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u7531\u4e24\u7ec4\u51fd\u6570 fi<\/sub> <\/em>\u548c gi<\/sub><\/em> \u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\u6240\u6709xi\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u90fd\u6bd4yi\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u77ed\u3002\u540e\u8005\u63cf\u8ff0\u201c\u7f13\u6162\u201d\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6c14\u5019\u89c2\u6d4b\u91cf\u3002\u4e0d\u5931\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7b80\u5316\u6240\u8003\u8651\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u8003\u8651x\u548cy\u4e3a\u6807\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5feb\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08fast variable\uff09<\/span>x\u5199\u51fay\u7684\u6709\u6548\u52a8\u529b\u5b66 x=<x|y>+x*\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d <x|y> \u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u5e73\u5747\uff0cx\u5728\u72b6\u6001y\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u56e0\u4e3ax\u6bd4y\u53d8\u5316\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5229\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5176\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u5feb\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u53d8\u5316 x*(t) \u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u767d\u566a\u58f0<\/span>\u6765\u8fd1\u4f3c\uff0c\u03c3(y) \u4e3a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6162\u53d8\u91cfy\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u632f\u5e45\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\u52bf U(y) \u7684\u62d6\u66f3\u529b\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5f53\u566a\u58f0\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5f88\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u52a8\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u5982 yE<\/sub>\uff09<\/span>\u9644\u8fd1\u5f85\u8f83\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e0d\u52a8\u70b9\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u62d6\u66f3\u529b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u566a\u58f0\u632f\u5e45\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u5e38\u6570\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf y(t) \u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4fbf\u7ea6\u5316\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u5f0f(3)\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684 Ornstein-Uhlenbeck \u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u6982\u5ff5\u5904\u7406\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u968f\u673a\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u6846\u67b6\u7814\u7a76\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u901a\u8fc7\u5f0f(6)\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u5904\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u6717\u4e4b\u4e07\u65b9\u7a0b\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a Fokker-Planck \u65b9\u7a0b [22] \uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u89e3\u91ca\u6c14\u5019\u89c2\u6d4b\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u7528\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5f0f(6)\u7684\u89e3\u7ed9\u51fa\u81ea\u5173\u8054\u51fd\u6570<\/span>\uff08auto-correlation function\uff09<\/span>\uff0c<\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u5085\u91cc\u53f6\u53d8\u6362\u7ed9\u51fa\u529f\u7387\u8c31\uff0c<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u8868\u660e\uff08a\uff09\u5f0f(6)\u4e2d\u7684\u767d\u566a\u58f0\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7ea2\u566a\u58f0\u54cd\u5e94\uff0c\uff08b\uff09\u6da8\u843d\u8017\u6563\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c06\u566a\u58f0\u5f3a\u5ea6\u4e0e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u9700\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e Mitchell\uff0cHasselmann \u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u5229\u7528\u5f0f(6)\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89c2\u6d4b\u542f\u53d1\u7684\u62df\u8bbe\u3002\u4ed6\u4ece\u5f0f(5)\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u968f\u673a\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u6846\u67b6 [11, 20, 29, 59, 80, 81] \u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u6e05\u6670\u533a\u5206\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981 [29] \u3002Hasselmann \u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u4e0a\u8ff0\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5feb-\u6162\u8026\u5408\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7531\u5e73\u5747\u529b\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u4fee\u6b63\u63a7\u5236<\/strong>\u3002\u6b63\u5982 Culina \u7b49\u4eba\u6240\u8ff0 [20] \uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u76f4\u5230\u6700\u8fd1\u624d\u88ab\u4e25\u683c\u5730\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u662f\u5728\u6bd4 Hasselmann \u8003\u8651\u60c5\u5f62\u66f4\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe6. Hasselmann \u968f\u673a\u6a21\u578b [42] \u7528\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e [26] \u8fdb\u884c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e94\u7528\u30021949-1964\u5e74\u5317\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u6d77\u9762\u6e29\u5ea6 (Sea Surface Temperature, SST) \u8c31\u300295% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7531\u56fe\u4e2d\u53cc\u5411\u7bad\u5934\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u039b-1<\/sup> =4.5 \u6708\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u5728\u56fe 6 \u4e2d\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u968f\u7740\u9891\u7387\u51cf\u5c0f\uff0c\u8c31\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u9650\u8017\u6563 \u039b \u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u671f\u671b\u5b83\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u9971\u548c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cHasselmann\u3001Wunsch [113] \u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u6709\u6781\u5176\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff0c\u53ef\u8fbe\u6210\u767e\u4e0a\u5343\u5e74\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u4e0e\u8bb0\u5fc6\u65f6\u95f4\u65e0\u7a77\u957f\u65f6\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u4f3c\u6216\u5206\u5f62\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u7684\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u767d\u566a\u58f0\u3001\u7c89\u566a\u58f0\u3001\u7ea2\u566a\u58f0\u7b49\uff09 <\/span>[72] \u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u8bb0\u5f55\u662f\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6001\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u548c\u4e0d\u6613\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u662f Hasselmann \u7c7b\u6bd4\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u4f53\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7279\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u663e\u7136\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u5e7f\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u5411\u53bb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c14\u5019\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u548c\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230 Mitchell [71] \u548c Hasselmann [42] \uff0c\u540e\u8005\u6210\u529f\u5c06\u968f\u673a\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u56fe6\u4e2d\u6765\u81ea Claude Frankignoul \u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5f88\u591a\u597d\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u60f3\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u548c\u9650\u5236\u3002\u7279\u522b\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8c31\u9699\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e Hasselmann \u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c \u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5178\u578b\u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u7ea2\u529f\u7387\u8c31<\/span>\uff08\u7ea2\u566a\u58f0\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u529f\u7387\u8c31\uff0c\u9ad8\u9891\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u4f4e\u9891\u6743\u91cd\u66f4\u5927\uff09<\/span> [65, 113]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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IV. <\/strong>\u7528\u89c2\u5bdf\u6765\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6d4b\u91cf\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u4e0d\u8a00\u800c\u55bb\u7684\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u7136\u800c\u7269\u7406\u5b87\u5b99\u5b66<\/span>\uff08physical cosmology\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u7269\u7406\u6c14\u5019\u5b66<\/span>\uff08physical climatology\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u89c2\u6d4b\u79d1\u5b66\u2014\u2014\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u6240\u5141\u8bb8\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u536b\u661f\u65f6\u4ee3\u524d\u7684\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u5927\u6c14\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7a00\u758f\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5e74<\/span>\uff081957-1958\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5f53\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c2\u6d4b\u8ba1\u5212\u542f\u52a8\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u91cd\u70b9\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8bf8\u5982\u4e24\u6781 [58,110]\u4e4b\u7c7b\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u8bf8\u5982\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6e7e\u6d41\u4e4b\u7c7b\u7684\u6d0b\u6d41\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u666e\u904d\u7684\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08\u7531Jacob Bjerknes\uff0cGeorge Carrier\uff0cWalter Munk\uff0cCarl Rossby \u548c Henry Stommel\u7b49\u4eba\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u63a8\u52a8\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u7a81\u7834\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u548c\u6570\u503c\u5efa\u6a21\u7684\u754c\u9650\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u00a7III C\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u9ad8\u7b49\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u6570\u503c\u9884\u6d4b\u5c0f\u7ec4\uff0c\u5176\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6b63\u59821922\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u5c3c\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u73bb\u5c14<\/span>\uff08Niels Bohr\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u7684\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff01\u201d\u6211\u4eec\u4e86\u89e3\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5de5\u5177\u662f\u7531\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u4eec\u5f00\u521b\u7684 GCMs\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7528\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u8bf4\u201c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u201d<\/span>\uff08project\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7b49\u7740\u770b\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u6c38\u8fdc\u7b49\u5f85\u6211\u4eec\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u4f46Hasselmann \u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u6765\u63a2\u7a76\uff0c\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u60c5\u51b5\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c14\u5019\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u72b6\u6001\uff1f\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u5316\u8fd8\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

A. \u6c14\u5019\u7684\u6307\u7eb9\u8bc6\u522b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u5fe0\u5b9e\u518d\u73b0\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0cHasselmann\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u6c14\u5019\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u81ea\u7136\u800c\u7136\u5730\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ed6\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u6765\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u6bd4\u8f83\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u4e86 1979-1997 \u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e09\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587 [43-45] \u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

Hasselmann\u5728\u8be5\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587[43]\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5355\u4e00\u7f51\u683c\u70b9\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u5904\u7406\u6c14\u5019\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u77e2\u91cf\u573a\u7ed3\u6784\u4ecd\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u6311\u6218\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u5f15\u7528\u5355\u4e00\u7f51\u683c\u70b9\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u54cd\u5e94\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\u6216\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u89e3\u51b3\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4ece\u7eaf\u7a7a\u95f4\u6570\u636e<\/strong> [43] \u5230\u7a7a\u95f4-\u65f6\u95f4\u6570\u636e<\/strong>[44,45] \u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u6700\u4f18\u68c0\u6d4b\u6280\u672f\u5982\u4f55\u63ed\u793a\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u5f02\u6027\u6216\u8005\u201c\u566a\u58f0\u201d\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0e\u4fe1\u53f7\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u6570\u636e\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0e\u566a\u58f0\u6700\u5f31\u7684\u6570\u636e\u90e8\u5206\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63ed\u793a\u51fa\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u66f4\u52a0\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u7269\u7406\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6307\u7eb9\u8bc6\u522b<\/span><\/strong>\uff08fingerprinting\uff09<\/span>\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u63a7\u5236\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9<\/span>\uff08optimal fingerprinting\uff09<\/span>\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5bf9\u591a\u5143\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u6cdb\u5316\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u68c0\u6d4b\u548c\u5c06\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u5f3a\u8feb\u6c14\u5019\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u65f6\u7a7a\u6307\u7eb9<\/span>\uff08spatio-temporal\uff09<\/span>\u8bc6\u522b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u4e09\u7ef4\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u533a\u5206\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u6539\u8fdb[45-49]\uff0c\u8be5\u7a0b\u5e8f\u8fdc\u6bd4\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u5355\u72ec\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u683c\u3001\u7ec6\u81f4\u548c\u5168\u9762\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ece\u7531\u5411\u91cfy\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\u8fc7\u6ee4\u7248\u672c\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u56de\u5f52\u91c7\u53d6\u6807\u51c6\u5f62\u5f0fy=Xa+u\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u77e9\u9635X\u5305\u542b\u5916\u90e8\u5f3a\u8feb\u6216\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u54cd\u5e94\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0ca\u662f\u8c03\u6574\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u5f0f\u632f\u5e45\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u56e0\u5b50\u5411\u91cf\uff0cu\u8868\u793a\u5185\u90e8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5f02\u6027\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5047\u5b9a\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\u77e9\u9635c\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\u968f\u673a\u5411\u91cf\u3002\u77e2\u91cfa\u662f\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u7edf\u8ba1\u6280\u672f\u6839\u636ec\u3001X\u548cy\u4f30\u8ba1\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dX\u5305\u542b\u4f7f\u7528GCM\u6a21\u578b\u6216EBM\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4ee5\u521b\u5efa\u5177\u6709\u590d\u6742\u65f6\u7a7a\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u201c\u5185\u90e8\u53ef\u53d8\u6027\u201d<\/span>\uff08internal variability\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8981\u60f3\u5c06\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u4eba\u4e3a\u5f3a\u8feb\uff0cX\u5fc5\u987b\u5305\u542b\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u4eba\u4e3a\u54cd\u5e94\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5fc5\u987b\u8bf4\u660e\u5f3a\u8feb\u8c03\u6574\u632f\u5e45\u4ee5\u5c06\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u68c0\u6d4b\u548c\u5f52\u56e0\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u7269\u7406\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u8bc4\u4f30\u5173\u4e8ea\u4e2d\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u5047\u8bbe\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5bf9\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6307\u7eb9\u632f\u5e45\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e0e\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u6a21\u62df\u4e86\u6307\u7eb9\u632f\u5e45\u65e0\u5173 [\u4f8b\u598249] \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u201c\u5e86\u795d\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u79d1\u5b66\u4e09\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5468\u5e74\u7eaa\u5ff5\u201d\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d [98]\uff0cSanter\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u4eec\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u81ea1979\u5e74\u300a\u67e5\u5c3c\u62a5\u544a<\/span>\uff08Charney Report\uff09<\/span>\u300b[19] \u4ee5\u6765\u768440\u5e74\u95f4\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u4e0eHasselmann\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u5982\u4f55\u81ea\u6d3d\u5730\u6bd4\u8f83\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u7684\u8bba\u6587 [43]\u540c\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u3002Santer\u6587\u7ae0\u5171\u67094\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206 [98]\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u67e5\u5c3c\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\u662fHasselmann\u6700\u4f18\u68c0\u6d4b\u7684\u8bba\u6587 [43]\u2014\u2014\u4f5c\u8005\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u4e3a\u786e\u5b9a\u4eba\u7c7b\u9020\u6210\u7684\u53d8\u6696\u4fe1\u53f7\u63d0\u4f9b\u53ef\u9760\u7edf\u8ba1\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u7edf\u8ba1\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e0d\u540c\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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Hasselmann\u6ca1\u6709\u9009\u62e9\u5927\u6d77\u635e\u9488\u7136\u540e\u53bb\u4e0b\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u7ee7\u7eed\u635e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63d0\u5021\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u2014\u2014\u540c\u65f6\u641c\u7d22\u6574\u7247\u5927\u6d77\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u89c2\u6d4b\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u6709\u5173\u4fe1\u53f7\u548c\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u9002\u5f53\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u6307\u7eb9\uff09<\/span>\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e8e\u533a\u5206\u6c14\u5019\u4fe1\u53f7\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u566a\u58f0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u67e5\u5c3c\u62a5\u544a\u4f9d\u8d56\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65e9\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u4ece\u4e2d\u4eba\u4eec\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u71c3\u70e7\u5c06\u660e\u663e\u4ea7\u751f\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u4fe1\u53f7[19]\u3002Hasselmann\u7684\u8bba\u6587 [43] \u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u68c0\u6d4b\u8be5\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u5408\u7406\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u536b\u661f\u642d\u8f7d\u7684\u5fae\u6ce2\u63a2\u6d4b\u5668\u6b64\u540e\u5f00\u59cb\u68c0\u6d4b\u5927\u6c14\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5168\u7403\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u5316\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u5e94\u7528Hasselmann\u4fe1\u53f7\u63a2\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Hasselmann\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u662f\u540e\u6765\u6570\u767e\u9879\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u68c0\u6d4b\u548c\u5f52\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\uff0c\u4e3aIPCC\u57282013\u5e74\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u652f\u6301\uff1a\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u53f6\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6781\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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V. <\/strong>\u6f5c\u529b\u65e0\u9650\u7684\u65e0\u5e8f\u4e16\u754c<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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A. \u590d\u578b\u3001\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u3001\u963b\u632b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\u201c\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u662f\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u88ab\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u65e0\u5e8f\u7684\u78c1\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u76f8\u53d8\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6bcf\u4e2a\u78c1\u6027\u539f\u5b50\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6392\u5217\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u6392\u5217\u65b9\u5411\u5728\u539f\u5b50\u4e4b\u95f4\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\uff0c\u4e09\u4e2a\u89d2\u4e0a\u5404\u653e\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u78c1\u4f53\u3002\u78c1\u4f53\u7684\u5317\u6781\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411\u4e0b\u3002\u5728\u76f4\u89c2\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u5c06\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\u7f6e\u4e8e\u5782\u76f4\u4e8e\u5176\u5e73\u9762\u7684\u5411\u4e0a\u6216\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u78c1\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c0f\u78c1\u4f53\u90fd\u6307\u5411\u4e0a\u6216\u5411\u4e0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5728\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u65bd\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u53cd\u94c1\u78c1\u201d\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5bf9\u76f8\u90bb\u7684\u5c0f\u78c1\u4f53\u5fc5\u987b\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u5f53\u4e24\u4e2a\u78c1\u4f53\u6ee1\u8db3\u7ea6\u675f\u6761\u4ef6\u65f6\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u4e2a\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u6ee1\u8db3\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u7ffb\u8f6c\u78c1\u4f53\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u6ee1\u8db3\u7ea6\u675f\u6761\u4ef6\u2014\u2014\u7cfb\u7edf\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u201c\u963b\u632b\u201d<\/span>\uff08frustrated\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6781\u7aef\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7cfb\u7edf\u5982\u4f55\u906d\u9047\u963b\u632b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\u4e2d\u7684\u53cd\u94c1\u78c1\u81ea\u65cb\u7cfb\u7edf\u906d\u9047\u963b\u632b<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bb8\u591a\u963b\u632b\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u4ee5\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53d7\u632b\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u7ed3\u6784\u201d\u6216\u201c\u666e\u901a\u201d\u73bb\u7483\uff0c\u201c\u8fb9\u7f18\u201d\u6216\u201cGardner\u201d\u73bb\u7483\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u6253\u7b97\u4e13\u95e8\u8ba8\u8bba\u5404\u79cd\u73bb\u7483\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u5f53\u8fc5\u901f\u731d\u706d\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fdb\u5165\u5e73\u8861\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u5360\u636e\u5927\u91cf\u975e\u5e38\u957f\u5bff\u7684\u4e9a\u7a33\u6001\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u3001\u6570\u5b57\u548c\/\u6216\u6982\u5ff5\u534f\u8bae\u3002\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6311\u6218[\u4f8b\u5982 12, 68, 96]\u30021977\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee<\/span>\uff08Philip Anderson\uff09<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u201c\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6211\u6240\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u8fd9\u53e5\u683c\u8a00\u7684\u6700\u597d\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u8c1c\u9898\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u8ffd\u5bfb\u5230\u5730\u7403\u5c3d\u5934\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u6216\u667a\u8bc6\u4e0a\u7684\u9b45\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/span>\uff08The history of spin glass may be the best example I know of the dictum that a real scientific mystery is worth pursuing to the ends of the Earth for its own sake, independently of any obvious practical importance or intellectual glamour. \uff09<\/span>[3]<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

B. \u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u578b\u7684\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u7b80\u4fbf\u8d77\u89c1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u5305\u542b\u6742\u8d28\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u6216\u5177\u6709\u5982\u4e0b\u54c8\u5bc6\u987f\u91cf\u7684\u81ea\u65cb\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u5176\u4e2d\uff0cJik<\/sub>\u662f\u975e\u5173\u8054\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5747\u503c\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u65b9\u5dee<\/span>\u7531\u4e8e\u540c\u65f6\u5141\u8bb8\u94c1\u78c1\u548c\u53cd\u94c1\u78c1\u8026\u5408\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u963b\u632b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u51f9\u51f8\u8d77\u4f0f\u201d\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u5730\u5f62\u56fe\u548c\u8bb8\u591a\u957f\u5bff\u547d\u7684\u4e9a\u7a33\u6001\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u5185\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u6765\u6982\u62ec\u53d1\u5c55\u3002Edwards\u548cAnderson[24]\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u79cd\u77ed\u7a0b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0cKik<\/sub>\u968f\u7740 i-k \u8ddd\u79bb\u7684\u589e\u5927\u800c\u8fc5\u901f\u51cf\u5c0f\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3a\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u76f8\u6784\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u81ea\u65cb\u5728\u5176\u521d\u59cb\u65b9\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u6295\u5f71\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ffd\u7565\u957f\u7a0b\u7a7a\u95f4\u5e8f\u800c\u8003\u8651\u957f\u7a0b\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u81ea\u65cb\u201c\u8bb0\u4f4f\u201d\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u6700\u521d\u7684\u6307\u5411\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u73bb\u7483\u6001\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728Jik<\/sub>\u5177\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u4e0d\u540c\u6784\u578b\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6837\u672c\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u590d\u578b\u6280\u5de7<\/strong>\u201d<\/span>\uff08replica trick\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c06\u914d\u5206\u51fd\u6570\u590d\u5236 n \u6b21\uff0c\u5373\uff0c<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u800c\u5141\u8bb8\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0cF =\u2212kT\u27e8lnZ\u27e9ave<\/sub>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u540c\u5e74\uff0cSherrington\u548cKirkpatrick[102]\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86 Edwards-Anderson \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u65e0\u9650\u7ef4\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f Kik<\/sub> = N-1<\/sup>\uff0c<\/span>\u5176\u4e2dN\u8868\u793a\u81ea\u65cb\u603b\u6570\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4f7f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u573a\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6096\u8bba\uff1a\u4f4e\u6e29\u65f6\u71b5\u53d8\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u72b6\u6001\u5177\u6709\u51e0\u4e4e\u76f8\u7b49\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\uff0c\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6536\u655b\u89e3\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6311\u6218\u542f\u53d1\u4e86\u6a21\u62df\u9000\u706b<\/span>\uff08simulated annealing\uff09<\/span>[53]\u3002\u7d27\u63a5\u7740 Thouless<\/span>\uff082016\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\uff09<\/span>\u3001Anderson\u548cPalmer[106]\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u8d1f\u71b5\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5374\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7136\u540e de Almeida \u548cThouless[21] \u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u201d\u6240\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4 Blandin[13]\u3001Bray\u548cMoore[14]\u5bf9\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u4f55\u7834\u574f\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5fae\u5999\u4e4b\u5904\u4ecd\u7136\u5f71\u5f71\u7ef0\u7ef0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

Giorgio Parisi \u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u4e0e\u94c1\u78c1\u4f53\u5728\u6709\u5e8f\u76f8\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u201c\u7eaf\u6001\u201d\uff08\u4e0a\/\u4e0b\uff09\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u5728\u6709\u5e8f\u76f8\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u65e0\u7a77\u591a\u4e2a\u6001<\/strong>[82,83]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u6599\u7684\u6269\u5c55 [68,69,84-86]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u65e0\u7a77\u591a\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\uff0cParisi\u6240\u505a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7a81\u7834\u662f\u5f15\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n


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\u5176\u4e2d\u03b1\u548c\u03b2\u4e3a\u590d\u578b\u3002\u6240\u6709\u7684q\u03b1\u03b1<\/sub>\u90fd\u662f\u7b49\u4ef7\u7684\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u590d\u578b\u4e2d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u91cd\u53e0\u5ea6\uff0c\u975e\u5bf9\u89d2\u9879\u5219\u5ea6\u91cf\u03b1\u548c\u03b2\u5f7c\u6b64\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\u5b83\u4eec\u63cf\u8ff0\u5c5e\u4e8e\u590d\u578b\u03b1\u548c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u590d\u578b\u03b2\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u91cd\u53e0\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u73bb\u7483\u76f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u7a33\u5b9a\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u5e94\u5e73\u5747\u573a\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89e3\u662fN\u81ea\u65cb\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684N\u7ef4\u6784\u578b\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u96c6\u5408\u3002<\/span>
<\/p>\n


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\u6570\u5b66\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6982\u5ff5\u53eb\u505a\u8d85\u5ea6\u91cf<\/strong><\/span>\uff08ultrametricity\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4e0a\u5b66\u65f6\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e09\u89d2\u4e0d\u7b49\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\u4efb\u610f\u4e24\u6761\u8fb9\u7684\u957f\u5ea6\u4e4b\u548c\u5927\u4e8e\u6216\u7b49\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e09\u6761\u8fb9\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6cdb\u51fd\u7248\u672c\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u8d85\u5ea6\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u63cf\u8ff0\u7cfb\u7edf\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6765\u523b\u753b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5f53\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u4e09\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u53e0\u662f\u76f8\u7b49\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u91cd\u53e0\u7684\u65e0\u5e8f\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08disorder-average distribution\uff09<\/span>\u662f<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u03c9 \u662f\u73bb\u5c14\u5179\u66fc\u6743\u91cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

C. \u5e94\u7528\u548c\u5f71\u54cd<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u81ea\u4ece Parisi \u7684\u539f\u521b\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u95ee\u4e16\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5f71\u54cd\u7206\u53d1\u5f0f\u5730\u589e\u957f\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0cParisi\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5728 John Hopfield \u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b[50]\u53ca\u5176\u4f17\u591a\u884d\u751f\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b58\u50a8\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e0e\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u5e73\u8861\u76f8\u662f\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u590d\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u51b3\u65c5\u884c\u63a8\u9500\u5458\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u57ce\u5e02\u548c\u6bcf\u4e24\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u6c42\u89e3\u8bbf\u95ee\u6bcf\u4e00\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u4e00\u6b21\u5e76\u56de\u5230\u8d77\u59cb\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u6700\u77ed\u56de\u8def\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u5c40\u90e8\u6781\u5c0f\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u6c42\u89e3\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u5219\u662f\u5168\u5c40\u6781\u5c0f\u503c\/\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u3002[68] \u5728\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0cDavid Thouless\u5199\u9053[107]\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u7814\u7a76\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u5728\u654c\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u624e\u8425\u7684\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5b66\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u4e0e\u90a3\u4e9b\u66f4\u65e9\u7684\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5173\u4e8e\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u53ca\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u793e\u533a\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u540e\u768430\u591a\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u5b9a\u5c45\u8005\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6b96\u6c11\u3002\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec (a) \u57fa\u672c\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u4f18\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5f88\u56f0\u96be<\/span>\uff08\u89c1[70]\u548c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff09<\/span>\uff0c(b) \u4e3a\u7ed3\u6784\u73bb\u7483\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u7684\u4e00\u9636\u7406\u8bba\uff0c(c) \u7ed9\u51fa\u786c\u7403\u963b\u585e\u586b\u5145\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u51e0\u4f55\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u573a\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5176\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u4e8c\u7ef4\u5230\u65e0\u9650\u7ef4\u90fd\u9002\u7528[89]\u3002\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e3a\u7ecf\u5178\u9897\u7c92\u7269\u8d28[9]\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u786e\u7acb\u4e86\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5e73\u8861\u548c\u7f13\u6162\u538b\u7f29\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u6570\u503c\u5206\u6790[16,17,95]\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8bc1\u5b9e[93]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u7f13\u6162\u81f4\u5bc6\u5316\u7684\u80f6\u4f53\u73bb\u7483[37]\u4e2d\u76f4\u63a5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e86\u73bb\u7483\u590d\u578b\u7406\u8bba\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\u76f8<\/span>\uff08marginal phase\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u5149\u5668[30,33,99,108]\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u65e0\u5e8f\u3001\u4f46\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u6fc0\u5149\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u963b\u632b\u7684\u5e73\u9762\u8154\u6fc0\u5149\u5668\u4e2d[7,74]\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u8fc7\u5149\u6298\u53d8\u65e0\u5e8f\u6ce2\u5bfc\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5149\u4f20\u64ad\u4e2d[90]\uff0c\u90fd\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u5149\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u5141\u8bb8\u5bf9\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u548c\u6e4d\u6d41[34]\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6ce2\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u8fdb\u884c\u4f34\u968f\u89c2\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06Hasselmann\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u5de5\u4f5c[40]\u4e0eParisi\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u65e0\u5e8f\u548c\u6da8\u843d\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u5149\u548c\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u516c\u5f0f(10)\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e00\u9636\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u7684\u53cc\u5cf0\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6fc0\u52a8\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u9886\u57df\u662f\u5728\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u5149\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u53d7\u6fc0\u53d1\u5c04\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u6216\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u88ab\u4ecb\u8d28\u590d\u6742\u5316[30,33,99,108]\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u80fd\u91cf\u5bc6\u5ea6\u7531\u6cf5\u6d66\u529f\u7387\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u6cf5\u6d66\u529f\u7387\u4e0e\u6e29\u5ea6\u6210\u53cd\u6bd4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6cf5\u6d66\u529f\u7387\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5c06\u53d1\u6325\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u4f4e\u6e29\u5728\u73bb\u7483\u5f62\u6210\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8ba9\u80fd\u91cf\u5730\u5f62\u56fe\u53d8\u5f97\u8d77\u4f0f\u4e0d\u5e73\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5f53\u6cf5\u6d66\u529f\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\u65f6\uff0c\u8154\u6a21\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7684\u987a\u78c1\u76f8\u3002\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u5149\u5668\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u4e9a\u7a33\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u6df7\u6c8c\u6fc0\u5149\u5668\u6709\u5c11\u91cf\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6307\u6570\u8def\u5f84\u53d1\u6563\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6fc0\u5149\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5149\u8c31\u7279\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe7. \u4e0d\u540c\u6cf5\u6d66\u80fd\u91cf\uff08\u5982\u63d2\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff09\u7684q\u03b1\u03b2<\/span><\/sub>\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\u5206\u5e03P(q) [30]\u3002\u5982\u672c\u6587\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\uff0c\u6cf5\u6d66\u80fd\u91cf\u4e0e\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6cf5\u6d66\u80fd\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e00\u9636\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u51fa\u73b0\u7834\u7f3a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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Ghofraniha\u7b49\u4eba[30]\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u5149\u7684\u5149\u8c31\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u91cf\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u5206\u6790\u4e0d\u540c\u53d1\u5c04\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6da8\u843d\u3002\u8fd9\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53d1\u5c04\u5149\u8c31\u90fd\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u5149\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u578b\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u03b1\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6da8\u843d\u51fd\u6570\u4e3a<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>\u662f\u6807\u8bb0\u4e3ak\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6ce2\u957f\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u5219 Parisi \u91cd\u53e0\u51fd\u6570(9)\u53d8\u4e3a<\/span><\/p>\n


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<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u6cf5\u6d66\u529f\u7387\u9ad8<\/span>\uff08\u6e29\u5ea6\u4f4e\uff09<\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u5149\u8c31\u53d8\u5316\u8981\u5927\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u80fd\u91cf\u4e0b\uff0c\u53d1\u5c04\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u76f8\u53d8<\/span>\uff08[30]\u56fe3\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u6b21\u53d1\u5c04\u540e\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u5bf9P(q)\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u5982\u56fe7\u6240\u793a\u7684\u4e00\u9636\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6fc0\u5149\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7ed3\u679c[99]\uff0c\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u590d\u578b\u5bf9\u79f0\u7834\u7f3a\u5728\u8868\u73b0\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u83b7\u5956\u8005\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u65e0\u5e8f\u3001\u566a\u58f0\u548c\u53ef\u53d8\u6027\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u5c31\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9519\u89c9<\/strong>\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u5c4a\u8bfa\u5956\u6240\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e5f\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u8d39\u66fc<\/span>\uff08Richard Feynman\uff0c1965\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u76f8\u4fe1\u6000\u7591\u662f\u9996\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u8bc6\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u7f3a\u9677<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8ba4\u8bc6\u7684\u672c\u8d28<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Believed in the primacy of doubt, not as a blemish on our ability to know, but as the essence of knowing\uff09<\/span>[32]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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[114] The founders of this fifield are all now deceased. In the 50\u2019s Stommel and Veronis began collaborating at the IAS within the von Neumann and Charney project, but their ultimate approach was to understand detailed pro?cesses rather than to study forecasting. A GFD school began in 1959: \u201cwith the aim of introducing a then relatively new topic in mathematical physics, geophysical flfluid dynamics, to graduate students in physical sciences. It has been held each summer since and promotes an exchange of ideas among the many distinct fifields that share a common interest in the nonlinear dy?<\/span><\/section>\n
namics of rotating, stratifified flfluids. These fifields include classical flfluid dynamics, physical oceanography, meteorology, astrophysics, planetary atmospheres, geological flfluid dynamics, hydromagnetics, and applied math?ematics.\u201d (https:\/\/gfd.whoi.edu)<\/span><\/section>\n
[115] It is worth emphasizing that before the availability of computing, progress in explaining observations or making predictions in all of the physical sciences, including climate science, was made using pencil and paper calculations. Computers changed this completely and in an era precisely during which both theory and numerical modeling in this fifield were developing. For this reason, a conceptual bifurcation occurred in which \u201cnumerical realism\u201d and \u201csimple\u201d theory began to evolve separately and the generality of the latter was largely viewed as a handicap rather than a great benefifit, whereas numerical climate models are only specififically relevant to the system under study [111]. After roughly half a century the theory of climate is now demonstrating its realism as well as having touched many fifields in dynamical systems along the way. This is due to the fact that nonlinear systems create emergent phenomena whereas GCMs act in a variety of ways as a fifilters of high frequency processes.<\/span><\/section>\n


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