{"id":30171,"date":"2021-11-22T20:01:50","date_gmt":"2021-11-22T12:01:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=30171"},"modified":"2021-11-22T20:01:50","modified_gmt":"2021-11-22T12:01:50","slug":"%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%e6%80%8e%e6%a0%b7%e5%ba%94%e5%af%b9%e6%96%b0%e5%86%a0%e5%a4%a7%e6%b5%81%e8%a1%8c-%e6%96%b0%e4%b9%a6%e9%80%9f%e8%a7%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=30171","title":{"rendered":"\u590d\u6742\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u600e\u6837\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u5927\u6d41\u884c | \u65b0\u4e66\u901f\u89c8"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/strong>\u4eca\u5929\u7ed9\u5927\u5bb6\u63a8\u8350\u7684\u4e66\u300aThe Complex Alternative\uff1a<\/span>Complexity Scientists on the COVID-19 Pandemic\u300b\u51fa\u81ea\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c\u4e24\u4efb\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957fDavid Krakauer\u548cGeoffrey West\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7f16\uff0c\u4ee5\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u4e2d\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u53ca\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6df1\u523b\u53cd\u601d\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u4e3a\u540e\u75ab\u60c5\u65f6\u4ee3\u590d\u6742\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u6307\u660e\u4e86\u9053\u8def\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Book Title\uff1a<\/strong>The Complex Alternative<\/span><\/section>\n
Book Subtitle\uff1a<\/strong>Complexity Scientists on the COVID-19 Pandemic<\/span><\/section>\n
Copyright\uff1a<\/strong>2021<\/span><\/section>\n
Publisher\uff1a<\/strong>The Santa Fe Institute Press<\/span><\/section>\n
Number of Pages\uff1a<\/strong>740<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6770\u5f17\u91cc\u00b7\u97e6\u65af\u7279<\/span>\uff08Geoffrey West \uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u73b0\u5e7481\u5c81\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9876\u7ea7\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u9876\u5c16\u5b66\u8005\u3002\u5168\u7403\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u56f4\u5899\u7684\u201d\u5b66\u672f\u5723\u5730\u2014\u2014\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u524d\u6240\u957f\uff0c\u5165\u9009\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u5468\u520a\u300b\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b100\u4eba\u3002\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u201c\u89c4\u6a21\u201d<\/span>\uff08Scale\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u5728\u7406\u89e3\u751f\u547d\u4f53\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fd0\u8425\u7b49\u4f17\u591a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u88ab\u4e1a\u5185\u5949\u4e3a\u201c\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5956\u201d\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u514b\u62c9\u8003\u5c14<\/span>\uff08David Krakauer\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fdb\u5316\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u73b0\u4efb\u6240\u957f\u53caWilliam H. Miller\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u62c5\u4efb\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u661f\u5927\u5b66\u63a2\u7d22\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8054\u5408\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u661f\u5927\u5b66\u9ea6\u8fea\u900a\u5206\u6821\u7684\u9057\u4f20\u5b66\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u548c\u6587\u5316\u4e2d\u4fe1\u606f\u5904\u7406\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\u53f2 \uff0c2012\u5e74\u88ab\u300a\u8fde\u7ebf\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u5217\u4e3a\u201c\u5c06\u6539\u53d8\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u768450\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u672c\u7ae0\u8282\u5c06\u5723\u5854\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240 Transmission \u7cfb\u5217\u8bba\u6587\u548c\u8bb8\u591a\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u65b0\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6765\u81eaTransmission \u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u64ad\u5ba2\u7684\u6587\u672c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u672c\u7ae0\u8282\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e862020\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u5e94\u7528\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7f51\u7edc\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a<\/span>\uff08 Applied Complexity Network Symposium\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6458\u5f55\uff0c\u4e0e\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u4e0a\u53d1\u8a00\u8005\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u914d\u5bf9\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4f1a\u8bae\u671f\u95f4\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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Introduction: The Complex Alternative, David Krakauer & Geoffrey West<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n

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Part One: Transmissions<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h3>\n
BATCH 1: RIGOROUS UNCERTAINTY: SCIENCE DURING COVID-19<\/span><\/section>\n
T-000:<\/strong> Citizen-Based Medicine, <\/strong>David Krakauer<\/em>  <\/span><\/section>\n
T-001:<\/strong> Complex Crises & the Inevitability of Ethically Loaded Decisions, David Kinney<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-002:<\/strong> Reducing Conflicting Advice on Allowable Group Size, John Harte<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-003:<\/strong> Modeling the Effect of Social-Distancing Measures in the COVID-19 Pandemic, Luu Hoang Duc & J\u00fcrgen Jost<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-004:<\/strong> Thinking Out of Equilibrium, Simon DeDeo<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
P-001:<\/strong> Complexity Podcast Transmission Series Ep. 1, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
BATCH 2: COVID-19 & COMPLEX TIME IN BIOLOGY & ECONOMICS<\/span><\/section>\n
T-005:<\/strong> The Need for Disease Models which Capture Key Complexities of Transmissions, Andrew Dobson<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-006:<\/strong>Using Social Media Data to Detect Signatures of Global Crises, Miguel Fuentes<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-007:<\/strong>How to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality while Easing Economic Decline, Danielle Allen, E. Glen Weyl & Rajiv Sethi<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-008:<\/strong>The Importance of Timing in Restrictive Confinement, Michael Hochberg<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-009:<\/strong>How the Analogies We Live By Shape Our Thoughts, Melanie Mitchell<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
P-002:<\/strong>Complexity Podcast<\/em> Transmission Series Ep. 2, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
BATCH 3: ON CORONAVIRUS, CRISIS & CREATIVE OPPORTUNITY<\/span><\/section>\n
T-010:<\/strong>Investment Strategies in Times of Crisis, William H. (Bill) Miller III<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-011:<\/strong>A Complex-Systems Perspective of Viruses, Santiago F. Elena  <\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-012:<\/strong>How Every Crisis is an Opportunity, Manfred D. Laubichler<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-013:<\/strong>Opportunities for Science Communicators, Mirta Galesic & Henrik Olsson<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-014:<\/strong>On Not Letting a Crisis Go to Waste, Doug Erwin <\/em> <\/span><\/section>\n
P-003:<\/strong>Complexity Podcast<\/em> Transmission Series Ep. 3, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
BATCH 4: RETHINKING OUR ASSUMPTIONS DURING THE COVID-19 CRISIS<\/span><\/section>\n
T-015:<\/strong>Federalism in the Time of Pandemic, Anthony Eagan<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-016:<\/strong>The Future of Education, Carrie Cowan<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-017:<\/strong>Privacy Concerns that Arise with the Pandemic, Stephanie Forrest<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-018:<\/strong>Quantitative Ways to Consider the Economic Impact of COVID-19, Sidney Redner<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-019:<\/strong>Statistical Tools for Making Pandemic Predictions, David Wolpert<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
P-004:<\/strong>Complexity Podcast<\/em> Transmission Series Ep. 4, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
BATCH 5: EMBRACING COMPLEXITY FOR SYSTEMIC INTERVENTIONS<\/span><\/section>\n
T-020:<\/strong>COVID Spiraling Frailty Syndrome, John W. Krakauer & Michelle C. Carlson<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-021:<\/strong>What History Can Teach Us about Resilience, Stefani Crabtree<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-022:<\/strong>The Informational Pitfalls of Selective Testing, Van Savage<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-023:<\/strong>Making Good Decisions under Uncertainty, David Tuckett, Lenny Smith, Gerd Gigerenzer & J\u00fcrgen Jost<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-024:<\/strong>The Heavy Tail of Outbreaks, Cristopher Moore<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
P-005:<\/strong>Complexity Podcast<\/em> <\/span>Transmission Series Ep. 5<\/span>, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
BATCH 6: EXPONENTIALS, ECONOMICS & ECOLOGY<\/span><\/section>\n
T-025:<\/strong>Understanding Cities to Respond to Pandemics, Christopher P. Kempes & Geoffrey West<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-026:<\/strong>Mechanism Design for the Market, Eric Maskin<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-027:<\/strong>Studying Wildlife in Empty Cities, Pamela Yeh & Ian MacGregor-Fors<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-028:<\/strong>Exponential Growth Processes, Sidney Redner<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-029:<\/strong>SARS-CoV-2 & Landauer\u2019s Bound, David Wolpert<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
P-006:<\/strong>Complexity Podcast<\/em> Transmission Series Ep. 6, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
BATCH 7: BETTER SCIENTIFIC MODELING FOR ECOLOGICAL & SOCIAL JUSTICE<\/span><\/section>\n
T-030:<\/strong>Out-Evolving COVID-19, David Krakauer & Dan Rockmore<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-031:<\/strong>Models that Protect the Vulnerable, Melanie Moses & Kathy Powers<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-032:<\/strong>The Noisy Equilibrium of Disease Containment & Economic Pain, Jon Machta<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-033:<\/strong>How Pandemics Rapidly Reshape the Evolutionary & Ecological Landscape, Brian Enquist<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
P-007:<\/strong>Complexity Podcast<\/em> Transmission Series Ep. 7, David Krakauer & Michael Garfield<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
BATCH 8: THE PANDEMIC & ITS AFTERMATH<\/span><\/section>\n
T-034:<\/strong>Can Schools Open and Stay Open? Michael Lachmann & Spencer Fox<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-035:<\/strong> Info-Metrics for Modeling & Inference with Complex & Uncertain Pandemic Information, Amos Golan<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
T-036:<\/strong>Building Trust in COVID-19 Vaccines, Ramanan Laxminarayan, Susan Fitzpatrick & Simon Levin<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n

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Part Two: Interviews & Essays<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h3>\n
THE INTERVIEWS<\/span><\/section>\n
I-001:<\/strong>Halting the Spread of COVID-19, Laurent H\u00e9bert-Dufresne (Complexity Podcast Ep. 24)<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
I-002:<\/strong>Modeling Disease Transmission & Interventions, <\/strong>Samuel V. Scarpino (Complexity Podcast Ep. 25)<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
I-003:<\/strong>Improving COVID-19 Surveillance & Response, Caroline Buckee (Complexity Podcast Ep. 28)<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
THE ESSAYS<\/span><\/section>\n
E-001:<\/strong>The Damage We\u2019re Not Attending To, David Krakauer & Geoffrey West<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
E-002:<\/strong>Uncertain Times, Jessica C. Flack & Melanie Mitchell<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n

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Part Three: The Complexity of Crisis<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h3>\n
Introduction: Applied Complexity in the Turbulent Disequilibrium, William Tracy & Casey Cox<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
THE TALKS<\/span><\/section>\n
Presented at the <\/em>Applied Complexity Network Symposium<\/em> in fall 2020<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
S-001:<\/strong>From Tunnel Vision to Lateral Vision\u2014in the Media & Elsewhere, Gillian Tett<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
S-002:<\/strong>Lost Attraction: How Civilizations Transform, Marten Scheffer<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
S-003:<\/strong>Lessons Learned & Next Steps: An Epidemiological View of the COVID Crisis & Its Complexities, Lauren Ancel Meyers<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n
S-004:<\/strong>Institutional Transitions & Economic Outcomes, Suresh Naidu<\/em><\/span><\/section>\n

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