{"id":31802,"date":"2022-01-18T22:06:04","date_gmt":"2022-01-18T14:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=31802"},"modified":"2022-01-18T22:06:04","modified_gmt":"2022-01-18T14:06:04","slug":"%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e6%80%a7%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e7%9a%84%e6%9c%ba%e9%81%87%ef%bc%9a2021%e5%b9%b4%e8%af%ba%e8%b4%9d%e5%b0%94%e7%89%a9%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e5%a5%96%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=31802","title":{"rendered":"\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u673a\u9047\uff1a2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u89e3\u8bfb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u4e09\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6(\u56fe1)\uff0c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u4eec\u201c\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u8d21\u732e\u201d\u3002\u7f8e\u7c4d\u65e5\u88d4\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce(Syukuro Manabe)\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc(Klaus Hasselmann)\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u53ef\u53d8\u6027\u5e76\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u201d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u4e86\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u5956\u91d1\uff1b\u610f\u5927\u5229\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u5e15\u91cc\u897f(Giorgio Parisi)\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4ece\u539f\u5b50\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5230\u884c\u661f\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u65e0\u5e8f\u548c\u6da8\u843d\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u534a\u5956\u91d1\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u65e2\u8bf4\u660e\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u83b7\u5f97\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u673a\u9047\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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1. \u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u56fe1 2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\uff1a\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u3001\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u548c\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u5e15\u91cc\u897f(\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/physics\/2021\/summary\/)<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7531\u5927\u91cf\u4e2a\u4f53\u6784\u6210\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u4e4b\u548c\uff0c\u800c\u5448\u73b0\u5173\u8054\u3001\u5408\u4f5c\u3001\u6d8c\u73b0\u7b49\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee(Philip W. Anderson)1972\u5e74\u5728\u6807\u9898\u4e3a\u201cMore is different\u201d\u7684Science\u6587\u7ae0[1]\u6240\u8868\u8ff0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u6b64\u7c7b\u65b0\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c31\u5176\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u6bd4\u6beb\u4e0d\u900a\u8272\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66(complexity science)\uff0c\u5174\u8d77\u4e8e20\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u529f\u80fd\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6f14\u5316\u548c\u8c03\u63a7\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u95e8\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u4ea4\u53c9\u6027\u3001\u7efc\u5408\u6027\u5b66\u79d1\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5f53\u4ee3\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u9886\u57df\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d8\u9769\uff0c\u5f25\u8865\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u5904\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u79d1\u5b66\u89c4\u5f8b\u8ba4\u8bc6\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e17\u900f\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u30022000\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u970d\u91d1\u66fe\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c21\u4e16\u7eaa\u662f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u4e16\u7eaa\u201d\u3002\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u63a2\u7d22\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u63ed\u793a\u5404\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5171\u6027\u53ca\u6f14\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u9075\u5faa\u7684\u5171\u540c\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u4f18\u5316\u548c\u8c03\u63a7\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5728\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u751f\u7269\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ca\u533b\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u63d0\u4f9b\u7406\u8bba\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe2 \u5730\u7403\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u5143\u7d20\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(IPCC)\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a[4]<\/span><\/p>\n


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2.1 \u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u7269\u7406\u5b66<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u6f14\u53d8\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u53d1\u660e\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u94c5\u7b14\u548c\u7eb8\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u6216\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66[5]\u3002\u968f\u7740\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u53d1\u660e\u5e76\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u5df2\u53d1\u5c55\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u5206\u652f\uff1a\u4e00\u652f\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5b83\u4f7f\u7528\u5927\u6c14\u548c\/\u6216\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u578b\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u652f\u662f\u7406\u60f3\u5316(\u6570\u7406)\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u949f\u7231\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u6f14\u5316\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7269\u7406\u73b0\u8c61[6]\u3002\u4ece\u7269\u7406\u4e0a\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u6216\u8005\u5929\u6c14\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7c97\u7c92\u5316\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7531\u6240\u6709\u5df2\u77e5\u7269\u7406\u53c2\u6570\u548c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u8ba1\u7b97\u8f93\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u66f4\u52a0\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61[7]\u6216\u8005\u5317\u6781\u6d77\u51b0[8]\u7b49\u3002\u4ee5\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c06\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u89e3\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ca\u5176\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5728\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u8fd8\u662f\u65f6\u7a7a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u9e3f\u6c9f\u3002\u8bd5\u56fe\u8c03\u548c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9e3f\u6c9f\uff0c\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5173\u6ce8\u5c3a\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u975e\u5e38\u9002\u5408\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d6\u5f97\u5de8\u5927\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u51dd\u805a\u6001\u7269\u7406\u548c\u7c92\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u4e2d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u6311\u6218\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u91cd\u6574\u5316\u7fa4\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5c06\u4ee5\u524d\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7edf\u4e00[9]\u3002\u91cd\u6574\u5316\u7fa4\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5df2\u6210\u529f\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u95ee\u9898[10\uff0c11]\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u4e5f\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u6700\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u5206\u652f\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8bba\u30021961\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u6d1b\u4f26\u8328(Edward Lorenz)\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u70ed\u5bf9\u6d41\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8bba[12]\u300260\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u90fd\u542c\u8bf4\u8fc7\u6df7\u6c8c\uff0c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u6982\u5ff5\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df[13]\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e5f\u91c7\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u7efc\u53ca\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5982\u884c\u661f\u8fd0\u52a8\u3001\u964d\u96e8\u548c\u6d77\u51b0\u539a\u5ea6\u7b49[14\u201416]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5927\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u662f\u4e3b\u6d41\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u4e92\u6709\u88e8\u76ca\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u9ad8\u80fd\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u662f\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5b9a\u4f4d\u5c0f\u4fe1\u53f7\u4ee5\u4fbf\u6b63\u786e\u89e3\u91ca\u7c92\u5b50\u78b0\u649e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6[17]\u3002\u5206\u6790\u6c89\u79ef\u7269\u6216\u51b0\u82af\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u80fd\u5426\u4ece\u7c92\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u6709\u6240\u6536\u83b7\uff1f\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u6709\u6240\u611f\u609f\uff1f\u5728\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5c55\u552f\u8c61\u7406\u8bba\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u5173\u952e\u548c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u501f\u9274\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5730\u7403\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5c55\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u552f\u8c61\u7406\u8bba\u3002  <\/span><\/section>\n

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2.2 \u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7b80\u4ecb<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7406\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u9646\u7eed\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u4e0d\u540c\u79cd\u7c7b\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u5f0f(energy-balance models)\u3001\u8f90\u5c04\u5bf9\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f(radiative-convective models)\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u52a8\u529b\u6a21\u5f0f(statistical-dynamical models)\u548c\u4e00\u822c\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f(general circulation models)\u56db\u5927\u7c7b\u3002\u800c\u4f9d\u636e\u590d\u6742\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u53ef\u5206\u4e3a3\u7c7b[18]\uff1a(1)\u7b80\u5355\u6982\u5ff5\u6027\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f(SCMs)\uff1b(2)\u8026\u5408\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f(CGCMs)\uff1b(3)\u590d\u6742\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4ecb\u4e8e\u524d\u4e24\u7c7b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e2d\u7b49\u590d\u6742\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f(EMICs)\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u5f0f\u5206\u4e3a\u96f6\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u4e00\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u662f\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u628a\u5730\u7403\u770b\u6210\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u82e5S\u4e3a\u592a\u9633\u5e38\u6570\uff0cR\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u534a\u5f84\uff0c\u5355\u4f4d\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u5730\u7403\u63a5\u6536\u7684\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u80fd\u4e3a\u03c0R2S\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5730\u7403\u603b\u9762\u79ef\u4e3a4\u03c0R2\uff0c\u5355\u4f4d\u65f6\u95f4\u5355\u4f4d\u9762\u79ef\u4e0a\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u63a5\u6536\u7387\u4e3aS\/4\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5730\u7403\u53cd\u5c04\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u4e3a(1-\u03b1)S\/4\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u03b1\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u53cd\u5c04\u7387\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6Te\u5411\u5916\u8f90\u5c04\u80fd\u91cf\u03c3Te4\uff0c\u03c3 \u4e3aStefen\u2014Boltzman\u5e38\u6570\u3002\u5728\u5168\u7403\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5f97\u5230<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
(1)\u5f0f\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u7684\u8f90\u5c04\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8003\u8651\u5927\u6c14\u6210\u5206(\u5982CO2)\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5438\u6536\u8f90\u5c04\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53d1\u5c04\u957f\u6ce2\u8f90\u5c04\uff0c\u4f1a\u4f7f\u6c14\u6e29\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u8868\u9762\u7684\u6c14\u6e29Ts\u5e94\u8be5\u6bd4\u6709\u6548\u8f90\u5c04\u6e29\u5ea6\u9ad8\u3002\u5373
<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u8fdb\u5165\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u8f90\u5c04\u548c\u5c04\u51fa\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u8f90\u5c04\u91cf\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u53d8\u5316\u7387\u2202Ts\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u5176\u4e2dc\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6bd4\u70ed\u5bb9\uff0c\u03c4a\u4e3a\u5927\u6c14\u7ea2\u5916\u4f20\u8f93\u7387\uff0c\u03b5\u4e3a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u53c2\u6570\u3002\u4e00\u7ef4\u80fd\u91cf\u5747\u8861\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0d\u518d\u5c06\u5730\u7403\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8003\u8651\u6e29\u5ea6\u5728\u7eac\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u7ef4\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7eac\u5ea6\u5e26\u53ef\u7531\u4ee5\u4e0b\u65b9\u7a0b\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u03b1(\u03d5)\u662f\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u53cd\u7167\u7387\uff0c\u5f53T<-10\u2103\u65f6\u03b1=0.62\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u03b1=0.3\uff1bc\u6307\u7684\u662f\u6c34\u5e73\u4f20\u70ed\u7cfb\u6570(3.81 W\u00b7m-2\u00b7\u2103-1)\uff0cTs(\u03d5)\u662f\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c<\/span>\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\uff1bA\u548cB\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u957f\u6ce2\u8f90\u5c04\u635f\u8017\u7684\u53c2\u6570(A=204.0 W\u00b7m-2\uff0cB=2.17 W\u00b7m-2\u00b7\u2103-1)\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u66f4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u8fd8\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u5927\u6c14\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u8f90\u5c04\u5bf9\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f\u628a\u5927\u6c14\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u94c5\u76f4\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u67f1\uff0c\u8be6\u7ec6\u8003\u8651\u5927\u6c14\u5185\u7684\u8f90\u5c04\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u7ef4\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u5782\u76f4\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5e38\u4f5c\u4e3a\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u540c\u8f90\u5c04\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6b64\u6a21\u5f0f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u4e2a\u539f\u7406\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff1a(1)\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u548c\u957f\u6ce2\u8f90\u5c04\u901a\u91cf\u4e0e\u5bf9\u6d41\u70ed\u901a\u91cf\u4fdd\u6301\u5e73\u8861\uff1b(2)\u56e0\u8f90\u5c04\u5dee\u5f02\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u5782\u76f4\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7531\u5bf9\u6d41\u8c03\u6574\u800c\u4f7f\u5176\u8fbe\u5230\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u8003\u8651\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u65e0\u5bf9\u6d41\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u8f90\u5c04\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5176\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5f0f\u4e2d\u53f3\u8fb9\u7b2c\u4e00\u9879\u3001\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9879\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u957f\u6ce2\u8f90\u5c04\u548c\u77ed\u6ce2\u8f90\u5c04\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u5bf9\u6d41\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u8f90\u5c04\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u65b9\u7a0b\u53f3\u8fb9\u9700\u8981\u6dfb\u52a0\u5bf9\u6d41\u8c03\u6574\u9879<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u6ee1\u8db3\u5bf9\u6d41\u5c42\u8d28\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u5730\u8868\u70ed\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u5782\u76f4\u6e29\u5ea6\u5ed3\u7ebf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7edf\u8ba1\u52a8\u529b\u6a21\u5f0f\u8003\u8651\u7eac\u5708\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u5bf9\u5927\u578b\u6da1\u65cb\u8f93\u9001\u53c2\u6570\u5316\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u540c\u7269\u7406\u56e0\u5b50\u5982\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u3001\u592a\u9633\u5e38\u6570\u7b49\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd0\u52a8\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u6da1\u65cb\u8f93\u9001\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u53c2\u6570\u5316\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u5411\u6e29\u5ea6\u68af\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u9a71\u52a8\u5927\u6c14\u659c\u538b\u6ce2\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6da1\u65cb\u70ed\u901a\u91cf\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6da1\u65cb\u52a8\u91cf\u901a\u91cf\u4e3a<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5f0f\u4e2d\uff0cKT\u548cKm\u5206\u522b\u4e3a\u70ed\u91cf\u548c\u52a8\u91cf\u4f20\u8f93\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u53ef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u5e38\u6570\u6216\u4e3a\u6e29\u5ea6\u68af\u5ea6\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u7eac\u5411\u5e73\u5747\u91cf\u7528<\/span>\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e00\u822c\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u6700\u4e3a\u5b8c\u5584\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u6c42\u89e3\u4e00\u7ec4\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u548c\u7406\u60f3\u6c14\u4f53\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
(1)\u52a8\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u65b9\u7a0b<\/span><\/section>\n
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(2)\u8d28\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u65b9\u7a0b
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(3)\u80fd\u91cf\u5b88\u6052\u65b9\u7a0b<\/span><\/section>\n
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(4)\u7406\u60f3\u6c14\u4f53\u65b9\u7a0b<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u8fd9\u7ec4\u65b9\u7a0b\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5927\u6c14\u538b\u529b\u3001\u5bc6\u5ea6\u548c\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u7eb3\u7ef4\u2014\u65af\u6258\u514b\u65af\u65b9\u7a0b\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u6570\u503c\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u5c06\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u6d41\u4f53\u8fd0\u52a8\u79bb\u6563\u5316\u5e76\u4e14\u5c06\u5730\u7403\u7a7a\u95f4\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u7ecf\u5411\u3001\u7eac\u5411\u548c\u5782\u5411\u7684\u4e09\u7ef4\u7f51\u683c\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u91c7\u7528\u6570\u503c\u79ef\u5206\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bf9\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u504f\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u957f\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u6c42\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7f51\u683c\u4e0a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53c2\u6570(\u5982\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u98ce)\u7684\u6570\u503c\u3002\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u62df\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd0\u884c\u6210\u672c\u968f\u7740\u5176\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u5206\u8fa8\u7387(\u5373\u7f51\u683c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f)\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u6a21\u62df\u65f6\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e\uff1a\u521d\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u5916\u5f3a\u8feb\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u5916\u5f3a\u8feb\u56e0\u5b50\u6709\uff1a\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u3001\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u6d53\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u690d\u88ab\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u706b\u5c71\u7206\u53d1\u548c\u5728\u5927\u6c14\u9876\u90e8\u63a5\u6536\u7684\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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2.3 \u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u53ca\u5176\u8d21\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e1931\u5e74\uff0c1958\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u4e1c\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u7406\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4(GFDL)\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u62c5\u4efb\u9ad8\u7ea7\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u6bd5\u751f\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u5f00\u53d1\u57fa\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u56e0\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u771f\u9505\u6a21\u578b\u5e76\u4f7f\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u30021967\u5e74\uff0c\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548cWetherald\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u7ef4\u8f90\u5c04\u5bf9\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f[19]\u3002\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6c34\u5e73\u589e\u52a0\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u628a\u7a7a\u6c14\u56e2\u56e0\u5bf9\u6d41\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5782\u76f4\u8f93\u9001\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c34\u84b8\u6c14\u7684\u6f5c\u70ed\u7eb3\u5165\u5176\u4e2d\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u54cd\u5e94\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u8868\u9762\u548c\u5bf9\u6d41\u5c42\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u968f\u7740\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u5347\u9ad8\u800c\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u5e73\u6d41\u5c42\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u5219\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6c27\u548c\u6c2e\u5bf9\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u5ffd\u7565\u4e0d\u8ba1\uff0c\u800c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5219\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff1a\u5f53\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6c34\u5e73\u7ffb\u500d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u8d85\u8fc72\u2103\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u82e5\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u500d(\u7531300 ppm\u589e\u52a0\u81f3600 ppm)\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u5c06\u4e0a\u53472.36\u2103[20]\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u56fe3\u6240\u793a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e3a\u65e5\u540e\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(IPCC)\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u8bba\u636e\u30021969\u5e74\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548cBryan\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d77\u6d0b\u2014\u5927\u6c14\u8026\u5408\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u8fdb\u884c\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u5341\u5e74\u5230\u767e\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6f14\u5316[21]\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c0f\u7ec4\u4f7f\u7528\u8026\u5408\u5927\u6c14\u6d77\u6d0b\u6a21\u5f0f\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6c14\u5019\u5bf9\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u54cd\u5e94\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u5c06\u8be5\u6a21\u5f0f\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u53e4\u6c14\u5019\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u63ed\u793a\u5317\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u7684\u6de1\u6c34\u6ce8\u5165\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u6c14\u5019\u7a81\u53d8[22]\u3002  <\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe3 \u771f\u9505\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5927\u6c14\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u9ad8\u5ea6\u548c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u542b\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f4e\u5c42\u5927\u6c14\u6e29\u5ea6\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u9ad8\u5c42\u5927\u6c14\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u51b7\u3002\u771f\u9505\u56e0\u6b64\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u9020\u6210\u7684\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u662f\u7531\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u589e\u52a0\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6574\u4e2a\u5927\u6c14\u5e94\u8be5\u53d8\u6696\u3002\u56fe\u4e2d\u653e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u5730\u8868\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u7ffb\u500d\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u5c06\u5347\u9ad82.36 \u2103[19]<\/span><\/section>\n

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2.4 \u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u53ca\u5176\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u8d21\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

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\u5176\u4e2d\u6240\u6709xi \u7684\u7279\u5f81\u6f14\u5316\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8fdc\u77ed\u4e8eyi \u7684\u7279\u5f81\u6f14\u5316\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u8868\u5f81\u201c\u7f13\u6162\u201d\u7684\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6c14\u5019\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53ef\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u8026\u5408\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6295\u5f71\u7b97\u7b26\u548c\u6cf0\u52d2\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5feb\u53d8\u91cf\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u968f\u673a\u767d\u566a\u58f0\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8y \u7684\u53d8\u5316\u89c4\u5f8b[24]\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe4 \u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u6307\u7eb9[24]<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5173\u4e8e\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4ef6\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u4ece\u4e8b\u6d77\u6d0b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4e86\u67e5\u7406\u65af\u00b7\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u57fa\u6797(Charles David Keeling)\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u592b\u5987\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4e00\u8d77\u521b\u529e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b97\u6559\u5408\u5531\u56e2\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u65e9\u57281958\u5e74\uff0c\u57fa\u6797\u5c31\u5728\u590f\u5a01\u5937\u7684\u83ab\u7eb3\u7f57\u4e9a\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\u65f6\u95f4\u6700\u957f\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u57fa\u6797\u56e0\u6b64\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u3002\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u90a3\u65f6\u8fd8\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u4ed6\u540e\u6765\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u663e\u793a\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6c34\u5e73\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u201c\u57fa\u6797\u66f2\u7ebf\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u65e0\u5e8f\u7cfb\u7edf<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5409\u5e03\u65af\u7684\u7cfb\u7efc\u7406\u8bba\u5c06\u7cfb\u7edf\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u523b\u6240\u6709\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u7269\u7406\u72b6\u6001\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u7ef4\u77e2\u91cf\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fae\u89c2\u6001(microstate)\u3002\u9ad8\u7ef4\u77e2\u91cf\u6240\u5728\u7684\u9ad8\u7ef4\u7a7a\u95f4\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u76f8\u7a7a\u95f4(phase space)\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5bf9\u5e94\u76f8\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u70b9\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u5728\u76f8\u7a7a\u95f4\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7efc\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7efc\u5305\u542b\u6570\u91cf\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\uff0c\u7cfb\u7efc\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u5229\u7528\u5409\u5e03\u65af\u71b5\u4e0e\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u53ca\u5e73\u8861\u6001\u7684\u71b5\u4e3a\u6781\u5927\u503c\uff0c\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\u6001\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7c92\u5b50\u6570N\u3001\u4f53\u79efV\u3001\u80fd\u91cfE\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5fae\u6b63\u5219\u7cfb\u7efc\uff0c\u8be5\u7cfb\u7efc\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u4e3a\u5e38\u6570\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7c92\u5b50\u6570N\u3001\u4f53\u79efV\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6T \u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ef\u5f97\u5230\u6b63\u5219\u7cfb\u7efc\uff0c\u8be5\u7cfb\u7efc\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u6b63\u6bd4\u4e8eexp(-E\/kBT)\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f53\u79efV\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6T\u3001\u5316\u5b66\u52bf\u03bc\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97\u5de8\u6b63\u5219\u7cfb\u7efc\uff0c\u8be5\u7cfb\u7efc\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u6b63\u6bd4\u4e8eexp(-E\/kBT+\u03bcN\/kBT)\u3002\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u80fd\u591f\u8ba1\u7b97\u5404\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u6001\u70ed\u529b\u5b66\u6027\u8d28\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u76f8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u539f\u5b50\u3001\u5206\u5b50\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u538b\u5f3a\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u6c14\u3001\u6db2\u3001\u56fa\u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u76f8\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u539f\u5b50\u3001\u5206\u5b50\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u94c1\u78c1\u3001\u94c1\u7535\u3001\u8d85\u5bfc\u3001\u8d85\u6d41\u76f8\u7b49\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u76f8\u53d8\uff0c\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3001\u5f15\u4eba\u5165\u80dc\u3002\u76f8\u53d8\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u91cf\u662f\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\uff0c1937\u5e74\u7531\u8457\u540d\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u6717\u9053\u5f15\u5165\uff0c\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\u5728\u76f8\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u6216\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u53d8\u5316\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u8fde\u7eed\u76f8\u53d8(\u4e34\u754c\u73b0\u8c61)\u548c\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u76f8\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5927\u91cf\u4e9f\u9700\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u7840\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b9a\u4e49\u5176\u80fd\u91cf\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6ca1\u6709\u5904\u5728\u5e73\u8861\u6001\u3001\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u672a\u77e5\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u53d8\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5c40\u57df\u7279\u6027\u53ca\u5404\u79cd\u5b8f\u89c2\u8981\u7d20\uff0c\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\u975e\u5e38\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u4e8b\u5148\u65e0\u6cd5\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u53d8\u4e0e\u4e34\u754c\u73b0\u8c61\u4e2d\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u74f6\u9888\u3002\u65e0\u5e8f\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3.1 \u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u65e0\u5e8f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u7c92\u5b50\u7684\u6392\u5217\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e2d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c1970\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u65e0\u5e8f\u78c1\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u3002\u5728\u4ecb\u7ecd\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7684\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u5c31\u50cf\u89c2\u770b\u838e\u58eb\u6bd4\u4e9a\u620f\u5267\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u60b2\u5267\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u540c\u65f6\u4e0e\u4e24\u4e2a\u4eba\u4ea4\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f7c\u6b64\u8ba8\u538c\uff0c\u90a3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ee4\u4eba\u6cae\u4e27[25]\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u968f\u673a\u4f0a\u8f9b(Ising)\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u63cf\u8ff0\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5176\u4e2dsi\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u81ea\u65cb\u6784\u578b\uff0cJij \u662f\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5176\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u4e3aP[Jij]\uff0c\u670d\u4ece\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u5e03\u3002Jij\u53ef\u6b63\u53ef\u8d1f\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u540c\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u94c1\u78c1\u548c\u53cd\u94c1\u78c1\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u963b\u632b(\u4ee4\u4eba\u6cae\u4e27)\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u5b58\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u4e9a\u7a33\u6001\uff0c\u5982\u56fe5\u6240\u793a\u3002\u5982\u679cJij\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u6570\uff0cJij=J\uff0c(14)\u5f0f\u5bf9\u5e94\u8457\u540d\u7684\u4f0a\u8f9b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7531Wilhelm Lenz\u4e8e1920\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u4f0a\u8f9b(Ising)\u4e8e1924\u5e74\u5bf9\u4e00\u7ef4\u60c5\u51b5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u30021944\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u6602\u8428\u683c(Lars Onsager)\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4e8c\u7ef4\u4f0a\u8f9b\u6a21\u578b\u65e0\u5916\u78c1\u573a\u65f6\u7684\u89e3\u6790\u89e3\uff0c\u4e25\u683c\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5176\u8fde\u7eed\u76f8\u53d8\uff0c\u5bf9\u76f8\u53d8\u4e0e\u4e34\u754c\u73b0\u8c61\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u548c\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u5f0f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
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\u56fe5 \u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u6a21\u578b\u793a\u610f\u56fe[24]\u3002\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u91d1\u5c5e\u5408\u91d1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u94c1\u539f\u5b50\u968f\u673a\u6df7\u5408\u5230\u94dc\u539f\u5b50\u7f51\u683c\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u94c1\u539f\u5b50\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u78c1\u94c1\u6216\u81ea\u65cb\uff0c\u53d7\u5468\u56f4\u5176\u4ed6\u78c1\u94c1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u6cae\u4e27\u5e76\u4e14\u96be\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u6307\u5411\u54ea\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u5229\u7528\u4ed6\u5bf9\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6db5\u76d6\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u65e0\u5e8f\u548c\u968f\u673a\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/section>\n

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(14)\u5f0f\u662f1975\u5e74\u7531Edwards\u548cAnderson\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u6a21\u578b(EA\u6a21\u578b)[26]\u3002\u5728\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u81ea\u65cb\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u662f\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u6676\u683c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ea\u6709\u8fd1\u90bb\u81ea\u65cb\u4e4b\u95f4\u624d\u6709\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5982\u679c\u81ea\u65cb\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u65e0\u9650\u957f\u7a0b\uff0c\u5373\u6bcf\u4e2a\u81ea\u65cb\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6N-1\u4e2a\u81ea\u65cb\u90fd\u6709\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48(14)\u5f0f\u5c31\u6210\u4e3a\u5e73\u5747\u573a\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u6a21\u578b(SK\u6a21\u578b)[27]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5(\u590d\u672c\u7406\u8bba\uff0creplica theory)\u7cbe\u786e\u6c42\u89e3\u4e86SK\u6a21\u578b[25]\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86H \u7684\u6781\u5c0f\u503c\u4e3aH= – 0.7633 N3\/2\u3002  <\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c1948\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u4e8e\u7f57\u9a6c\uff0c1970\u5e74\u5728\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9\u00b7\u5361\u6bd4\u535a\u6559\u6388\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u4e0b\u53d6\u5f97\u7f57\u9a6c\u5927\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u662f\u610f\u5927\u5229\u731e\u7301\u4e4b\u773c\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5916\u7c4d\u9662\u58eb\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u58eb\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u4e3a\u91cf\u5b50\u573a\u8bba\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u5728\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d21\u732e\uff0c2021\u5e74\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u83b7\u5f97\u5305\u62ec1992\u5e74\u73bb\u5c14\u5179\u66fc\u5956\u30011999\u5e74\u72c4\u62c9\u514b\u5956\u7ae0\u30012002\u5e74\u8d39\u7c73\u5956\u30012005\u5e74\u6d77\u6d85\u66fc\u6570\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u5956\u30012011\u5e74\u666e\u6717\u514b\u5956\u7ae0\u30012016\u5e74\u6602\u8428\u683c\u5956\u30012021\u5e74\u6c83\u5c14\u592b\u5956\u5728\u5185\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5956\u9879\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u6559\u6388\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u4e4b\u521d\u5c31\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ed3\u7f18\u30021980\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\uff0c\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u62c5\u4efb\u5ba2\u5ea7\u8bbf\u95ee\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4e0e\u5f53\u65f6\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u5434\u548f\u65f6\u6559\u6388\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u6765\u505a\u91cf\u5b50\u573a\u8bba\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u91cf\u5b50\u5316\u548c\u91cf\u5b50\u6da8\u843d\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u5f53\u65f6\u575a\u6301\u8981\u5c06\u5408\u4f5c\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u56fd\u5185\u53ea\u6709\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u8868\u82f1\u6587\u7a3f\u4ef6\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u8be5\u5408\u4f5c\u8bba\u6587\u6700\u7ec8\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u300b[28]\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u7c92\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u754c\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u53cd\u54cd\uff0c\u88ab\u540c\u884c\u547d\u540d\u4e3a\u968f\u673a\u91cf\u5b50\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3.2 \u590d\u672c\u5bf9\u79f0<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u6839\u636e\u6717\u9053\u7684\u76f8\u53d8\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u76f8\u53d8\u7531\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\u8868\u5f81\u3002\u57fa\u4e8eEdwards\u548cAnderson\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u590d\u672c\u6280\u5de7(replicatrick)[23]\uff0c\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u5bf9\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u6a21\u578b((14)\u5f0f)\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u7eaf\u6001\u03b1\u548c\u03b2\u4ea4\u53e0\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf(overlap order parameter)[29]\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u5176\u4e2d<\/span>\u8868\u793a\u7b2c\u03b1\u4e2a\u590d\u672c\u4e2d\u7b2ci \u4e2a\u81ea\u65cb\u7684\u5c40\u57df\u78c1\u5316\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u03b1=\u03b2\uff0c(15)\u5f0f\u5c31\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86Edwards\u2014Anderson\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cfqEA[23]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cq\u03b1\u03b2\u662f\u4e00\u4e2an\u00d7n\u7684\u77e9\u9635\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u4ea4\u53e0\u77e9\u9635(overlap matrix)\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u81ea\u7531\u80fd\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u978d\u70b9\u65b9\u6cd5(saddle-point method)\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2aq\u03b1\u03b2\u77e9\u9635\u4f7f\u5f97\u81ea\u7531\u80fd\u51fd\u6570\u53d6\u6781\u503c(\u4e00\u9636\u5bfc\u6570\u4e3a\u96f6)\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9700\u8981\u6c42\u89e3n\u00d7(n-1)\/2\u4e2a\u65b9\u7a0b(q\u03b1\u03b2\u77e9\u9635\u662f\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684)\u3002\u76f4\u63a5\u89e3\u6790\u6c42\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u65b9\u7a0b\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u5047\u8bbeq\u03b1\u03b2\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u6765\u7b80\u5316\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u5c31\u662f\u590d\u672c\u5bf9\u79f0(replica symmetry)\uff0c\u5373\u4ea4\u6362\u590d\u672c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8q\u03b1\u03b2\u77e9\u9635\u3002\u5728\u590d\u672c\u5bf9\u79f0\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\uff0c\u5373<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5e15\u91cc\u897f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e25\u683c\u6c42\u89e3\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u601d\u7ef4\u5df2\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u5e94\u7528\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u65e0\u5e8f\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u73bb\u7483\u5316\u8f6c\u53d8\u3001\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\u3001\u4eba\u8111\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u7b49\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u6574\u4f53\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u65e0\u5e8f\u548c\u6da8\u843d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e0a\u8ff0\u81ea\u65cb\u73bb\u7483\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u51fd\u6570\u548c\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u65e0\u5e8f\u4e0e\u70ed\u6da8\u843d\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u9020\u5c31\u4e86\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u5f53\u524d\u4e9f\u9700\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u9047\u5230\u7684\u6311\u6218\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u51fd\u6570\u548c\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u90fd\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u7efc\u7684\u672c\u5f81\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u7406\u8bba[30\uff0c31]\u3002\u5f53\u672c\u5f81\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u7cfb\u7efc\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u51dd\u805a\u65f6\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u73bb\u8272\u6c14\u4f53\u7684\u73bb\u8272\u2014\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u51dd\u805a\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d1\u751f\u76f8\u53d8\uff0c\u65b0\u76f8\u7531\u672c\u5f81\u5fae\u89c2\u6001\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u5e8f\u53c2\u91cf\u4e3a\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u672c\u5f81\u503c\u3002\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u5df2\u6210\u529f\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u6001\u4f0a\u8f9b\u6a21\u578b[30\uff0c31]\u3001\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf[31]\u3001\u81ed\u6c27\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u53ca\u6f14\u5316\u6a21\u578b[32]\u4ee5\u53ca\u975e\u5e73\u8861\u7fa4\u4f53\u8fd0\u52a8[33]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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4. \u7ed3\u8bed\u4e0e\u5c55\u671b<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u51fa\u4e4e\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u6599\u3002\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u6388\u4e88\u8fd8\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7b97\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a81\u7834\u3002\u56de\u6eaf\u4e00\u4e0b\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u5b83\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u8109\u7edc\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u7d27\u8ddf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u7d27\u8d34\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8109\u640f\u3002\u65e9\u671f\u4e3b\u8981\u5956\u52b1\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5f00\u59cb\u5956\u52b1\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u7406\u8bba\u9700\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u8bc1\u5b9e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7c92\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u5e0c\u683c\u65af\u673a\u5236\u5728\u5176\u63d0\u51fa\u540e\u5c06\u8fd150\u5e74\uff0c\u7b49\u5230\u5e0c\u683c\u65af\u7c92\u5b50\u88ab\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53d1\u73b0\u540e\u624d\u6388\u5956\u3002\u540e\u6765\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u5f00\u59cb\u6388\u4e88\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u8fdb\u6b65\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u624b\u6bb5(\u4f8b\u5982\u626b\u63cf\u96a7\u9053\u663e\u5fae\u955c\u7b49)\u548c\u6280\u672f(\u4f8b\u5982\u5149\u5728\u7ea4\u7ef4\u4e2d\u4f20\u8f93\u7b49)\u3002\u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u548c\u5b87\u89c2\u5c42\u6b21\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u6240\u5728\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u6b21\uff0c\u5bf9\u5927\u91cf\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u8fd9\u963b\u788d\u6211\u4eec\u79d1\u5b66\u5e94\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f53\u524d\u9047\u5230\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5de8\u5927\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u63a8\u52a8\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff01\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u6709\u4e9b\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u60c5\u7406\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e00\u822c\u6d89\u53ca\u8f83\u591a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u5176\u653e\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81eaNature\u3001Science<\/span>\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605\uff1a<\/span>
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