{"id":32157,"date":"2022-01-28T22:52:08","date_gmt":"2022-01-28T14:52:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=32157"},"modified":"2022-01-28T22:52:08","modified_gmt":"2022-01-28T14:52:08","slug":"%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e5%bd%92%e5%9b%a0%ef%bc%9a%e5%ba%94%e5%af%b9%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e5%9f%ba%e7%a1%80-%e4%bb%8e%e8%af%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=32157","title":{"rendered":"\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\uff1a\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u8bfa\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u8c08\u8d77"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u9881\u53d1\u7ed9\u5fb7\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc(Klaus Hasselmann)\u4e0e\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002<\/span>\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7<\/span>\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6d77\u6d0b\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u6c14\u8c61\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002<\/span>\u6587\u7ae0\u5c06\u7b80\u8ff0\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u5386\uff0c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4ed6\u5728\u5927\u6c14\u54cd\u5e94\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u566a\u6bd4\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u7684\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u6307\u7eb9\u65b9\u6cd5\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5b66\u672f\u6210\u5c31\u3002<\/span>\u8fd8\u5c06\u7ed3\u5408\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6709\u5173\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u9610\u8ff0\u5728\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u5408\u4f5c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

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\u300a\u7269\u7406<\/span>\u300b<\/span>2022\u5e74\u7b2c1\u671f<\/span> | \u6765\u6e90<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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1. \u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u751f\u6daf<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc(\u5168\u540dKlaus Ferdinand Hasselmann\uff0c\u56fe1)\u4e8e1931\u5e7410\u670825\u65e5\u751f\u4e8e\u5fb7\u56fd\u6c49\u5821\u3002<\/span>1934\u5e74\u5728\u4ed6\u5927\u7ea63\u5c81\u65f6\uff0c\u4e3e\u5bb6\u79fb\u6c11\u82f1\u56fd\u3002<\/span>1949\u5e74\u9ad8\u4e2d\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\uff0c\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u548c\u5bb6\u4eba\u4e00\u8d77\u8fd4\u56de\u5fb7\u56fd\u3002<\/span>
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\u56fe1 \u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5c55\u793a\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u8bc1\u4e66(\u62cd\u6444\u8005\uff1aBernhardLudewig\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/physics\/2021\/hasselmann\/photo-gallery\/)
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1955\u5e74\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u83b7\u6c49\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u8bc1\u4e66\uff1b1957\u5e74\u83b7\u54e5\u5ef7\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e08\u4eceW. Tollmien\u6559\u6388\u7814\u7a76\u5404\u5411\u540c\u6027\u6e4d\u6d41\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u65b9\u7a0b\u30021957\u20141961\u5e74\uff0c\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5728\u6c49\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u7ed9\u672c\u79d1\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u6559\u5e08K. Wieghardt\u6559\u6388\u62c5\u4efb\u7814\u7a76\u52a9\u7406\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u7814\u7a76\u6e4d\u6d41\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u5b66\u672f\u8bba\u6587[2]\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u5404\u5411\u540c\u6027\u6e4d\u6d41\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u901f\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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1961\u20141964\u5e74\uff0c\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5e94\u8457\u540d\u6d77\u6d0b\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6c83\u5c14\u7279\u00b7\u8499\u514b\u7684\u9080\u8bf7\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u65af\u514b\u5229\u666e\u65af\u6d77\u6d0b\u7814\u7a76\u6240(\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u5723\u5730\u4e9a\u54e5\u5206\u6821\u7684\u524d\u8eab)\u4e0b\u5c5e\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u548c\u884c\u661f\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u6240(IGPP)\u62c5\u4efb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u548c\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4ece\u4e8b\u5927\u578b\u6d77\u6d0b\u6ce2\u6d6a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u548c\u8499\u514b\u4e00\u76f4\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u5408\u4f5c\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u53cb\u8c0a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u57282008\u5e74\u8499\u514b90\u5c81\u751f\u65e5\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4ed6\u548cHansvon Storch\u5408\u5199\u4e86\u8499\u514b\u7684\u4f20\u8bb0[3]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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1964\u5e7411\u6708\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u56de\u5230\u5fb7\u56fd\uff0c\u5728\u6c49\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u62c5\u4efb\u8bb2\u5e08\uff0c\u4e24\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u664b\u5347\u4e3a\u6559\u6388\u30021969\u5e74\u5fb7\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\u90e8\u5728\u6c49\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\uff0c\u8058\u8bf7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u4e3a\u8be5\u7cfb\u7684\u4e3b\u4efb\u30021970\u20141972\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f0d\u5179\u970d\u5c14\u6d77\u6d0b\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u4f5c\u6559\u6388\u30021972\u5e74\u518d\u6b21\u56de\u56fd\uff0c\u62c5\u4efb\u6c49\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e3b\u4efb\u30021975\u5e74\u4ed6\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u00b7\u666e\u6717\u514b\u6c14\u8c61\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5e76\u4e00\u76f4\u62c5\u4efb\u6240\u957f\uff0c\u57281988\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u517c\u4efb\u5fb7\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u5fc3\u79d1\u5b66\u4e3b\u4efb\u30021999\u5e7411\u6708\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5728\u4ed668\u5c81\u65f6\u9000\u4f11\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u83b7\u98812021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u83b7\u5f97\u8fc7\u5f88\u591a\u5b66\u672f\u8363\u8a89\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4f1a\u9881\u53d1\u7684James B. Macelwane Award(1964\u5e74)\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u4f1a\u9881\u53d1\u7684Sverdrup Gold Medal(1971\u5e74)\u3001\u9065\u611f\u5b66\u4f1a\u9881\u53d1\u7684Belfotop-Eurosense Award(1981\u5e74)\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9881\u53d1\u7684Robertson Memorial Lecture Award(1990\u5e74)\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u4f1a\u9881\u53d1\u7684Symons Memorial Medal(1997\u5e74)\u4ee5\u53ca\u6b27\u6d32\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4f1a\u9881\u53d1\u7684Vilhelm Bjerknes Medal(2002\u5e74)\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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2. <\/strong><\/strong>\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5728\u7269\u7406\u6d77\u6d0b\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u4e3b\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u6d77\u6d6a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7814\u7a76\u4e0a\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u57281968\u20141969\u5e74\u95f4\u6210\u529f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u534f\u8c03\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u8377\u5170\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7b49\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u5f00\u5c55\u201c\u8054\u5408\u5317\u6d77\u6d77\u6d6a\u8ba1\u5212\u201d(JONSWAP)\uff0c\u5728\u5317\u6d77160 km\u65ad\u9762\u4e0a\u5e03\u7f6e\u4e8613\u4e2a\u89c2\u6d4b\u70b9\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u79cd\u4eea\u5668\u89c2\u6d4b\u6d77\u6d6a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4e3a\u7814\u5236\u6ce2\u6d6a\u6a21\u578b(WAM)\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u8fc4\u4eca\u4ecd\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u5728\u6d77\u6d0b\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u5de5\u7a0b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6d77\u6d6a\u8c31JONSWAP\u5c31\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6b21\u89c2\u6d4b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u83b7\u53d6\u7684\u3002JONSWAP\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6b64\u6b21\u8054\u5408\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8ba1\u5212\u65f6\u6240\u5c55\u793a\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u534f\u8c03\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5bf9\u4ed6\u540e\u6765\u88ab\u4efb\u547d\u4e3a\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u00b7\u666e\u6717\u514b\u6c14\u8c61\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u957f\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u745e\u5178\u7687\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c062021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u9881\u7ed9\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8868\u5f70\u4ed6\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e24\u9879\u5b66\u672f\u8d21\u732e\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6307\u7eb9\u8fa8\u8bc6\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5efa\u7acb\u3002\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u53d1\u8868\u76846\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e0e\u83b7\u5956\u5185\u5bb9\u76f8\u5173[5\u201410]\u3002\u4ed6\u57281979\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5927\u6c14\u54cd\u5e94\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u566a\u6bd4\u95ee\u9898[5]\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u8bc1\u660e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5173\u952e\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u501f\u52a9\u4fe1\u606f\u9886\u57df\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u53f7\u201d\u5904\u7406\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u201c\u6162\u53d8\u201d\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u7387\u4e0e\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6df7\u6c8c\u968f\u673a\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f4e\u9891\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u7bc7\u539f\u59cb\u8bba\u6587\u975e\u5e38\u6666\u6da9\u96be\u61c2\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u91cd\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587[7]\u3002\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u5305\u62ec\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u4f1a\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7559\u4e0b\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u6307\u7eb9\u201d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u5c55\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u201c\u6307\u7eb9\u201d\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e8620\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u53f6\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u6c34\u5e73\u589e\u52a0\u6240\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5408\u4f5c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u516c\u4f17\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u89c6\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u30021976\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u57fa\u4e8e\u6e4d\u6d41\u7814\u7a76\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u542f\u793a\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b(\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u6a21\u578b)\uff0c\u501f\u9274\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u6765\u8868\u5f81\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u201c\u566a\u97f3\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u80fd\u591f\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u81ea\u7136\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u7387\u7684\u8d77\u6e90[6]\u3002\u5f15\u5165\u968f\u673a\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4f7f\u5f97\u5206\u79bb\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u566a\u97f3\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53d8\u5f97\u8f83\u4e3a\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u4ed6\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u4eec\u5728\u7b80\u5355\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u66f4\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5373\u8026\u5408\u7684\u6d77\u6d0b\u2014\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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3. \u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5728\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u5408\u4f5c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5df2\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u7531\u4e09\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u53e0\u52a0\u800c\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7531\u5927\u6c14\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u9646\u5730\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u7387\uff0c\u7531\u81ea\u7136\u5f3a\u8feb\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u4eba\u4e3a\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u81ea\u7136\u5916\u5f3a\u8feb\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u7167\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u706b\u5c71\u55b7\u53d1\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5e73\u6d41\u5c42\u786b\u5316\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u800c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5916\u5f3a\u8feb\u5219\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u3001\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u548c\u81ed\u6c27\u6d53\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u53d8\u5316\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u6570\u7406\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5927\u4f53\u5206\u4e3a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6cd5\u3001\u63a8\u7406\u6cd5\u548c\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5\u3002\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6cd5\u662f\u5c06\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u68c0\u9a8c\u6cd5\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u65e2\u8003\u5bdf\u53d8\u91cf\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u53c8\u8003\u8651\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u63a8\u7406\u6cd5\u662f\u628a\u6f14\u7ece\u4e0e\u5bf9\u6807\u91cf\u56e0\u5b50\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6700\u9ad8\u9891\u7387\u6cd5\u548c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\u7b49\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u4f7f\u7528\u6700\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5de5\u4f5c\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5(fingerprint)\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u901a\u8fc7\u6700\u5927\u5316\u4fe1\u566a\u6bd4\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4fe1\u53f7\u7279\u5f81\u4f7f\u4e4b\u6392\u9664\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u7387\u566a\u58f0\u5e72\u6270\u7684\u6280\u672f\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5e7f\u4e49\u591a\u5143\u56de\u5f52\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u5373\u628a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316y\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u5f3a\u8feb\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4fe1\u53f7X\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u53e0\u52a0\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u7387u\uff0c\u5373y\uff1dXa\uff0bu.<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5176\u4e2d\uff0cy\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u6ee4\u6ce2\u5904\u7406\u540e\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u65f6\u7a7a\u53d8\u5316\uff1b\u77e9\u9635X\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0ca\u4e3a\u5bf9\u5e94\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u7cfb\u6570\u3002\u82e5a\u663e\u8457\u5927\u4e8e0\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u53ef\u68c0\u6d4b\u5230\u8be5\u5916\u5f3a\u8feb\u56e0\u5b50\u5bf9\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u77e9\u9635X\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6216\u7b80\u5316\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u5982\u80fd\u91cf\u5e73\u8861\u6a21\u5f0f(EBM)\u83b7\u53d6\u3002\u5229\u7528\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u6a21\u62df\u5916\u90e8\u5f3a\u8feb\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u65e2\u5305\u542b\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u7387\u3002\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u8be5\u5916\u90e8\u5f3a\u8feb\u4e0b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u54cd\u5e94\u4fe1\u53f7X\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u591a\u6210\u5458\u6a21\u62df\u505a\u96c6\u5408\u5e73\u5747\u6765\u6d88\u9664\u5185\u90e8\u53d8\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe2 \u6a21\u62df\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u5927\u9646\u3001\u6d0b\u76c6\u53ca\u66f4\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u5708\u5c42\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6c14\u5019\u6307\u6807\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bc6\u522b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u201c\u6307\u7eb9\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684[11]<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56fe2\u662f\u5bf9\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u4ee5\u6765\u5927\u9646\u3001\u6d0b\u76c6\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u5404\u5708\u5c42\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6c14\u5019\u6307\u6807\u53d8\u5316\u8fdb\u884c\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790\u65f6\u5f00\u5c55\u7684\u591a\u4e2a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u76f8\u5e94\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u8003\u8651\u81ea\u7136\u5f3a\u8feb\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6a21\u5f0f\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u6c14\u6e29\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u70ed\u542b\u91cf(\u7eff\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf)\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c(\u9ed1\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf)\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u518d\u73b020\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u6696\uff1b\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u706b\u5c71\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd150\u5e74\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c(\u7ea2\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf)\u624d\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u5728\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\/\u6216\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u6a21\u6001\u5c31\u662f\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u6307\u7eb9\u201d\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd150\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5728\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u4e0a\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u201c\u6307\u7eb9\u201d\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u5730\u8868\u6c14\u6e29\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u70ed\u542b\u91cf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u6d77\u51b0\u8303\u56f4\u3001\u5b63\u98ce\u3001\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u3001\u5c71\u5730\u51b0\u5ddd\u3001\u51bb\u571f\u7b49\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u90fd\u80fd\u53d1\u73b0\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u201c\u6307\u7eb9\u201d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u6240\u53d1\u6325\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4f5c\u7528\u8fdc\u8d85\u81ea\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u8ba4\u77e5\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ec4\u7ec7\u2014\u2014\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(IPCC)\u5728\u5b83\u7684\u5386\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5747\u628a\u5f52\u56e0\u7ed3\u8bba\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u73b0\u3002IPCC\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u4fe1\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6392\u653e\u6b63\u5728\u4f7f\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u589e\u5f3a\u6e29\u5ba4\u6548\u5e94\u4f7f\u5730\u8868\u5347\u6e29\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u201c\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5168\u90e8\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u9020\u6210\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fa8\u522b\u201d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u8fd150\u5e74\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u589e\u6696\u53ef\u80fd\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347(66%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027)\u3002\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u662f\u4e0d\u4e89\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd1\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u201c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u201d\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u6240\u81f4(90%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027)\u3002\u7b2c\u4e94\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63ed\u793a\uff0c\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u76841951\u20142010\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u5730\u8868\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u662f\u7531\u4eba\u4e3a\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f3a\u8feb\u5171\u540c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u53ef\u80fd\u7684(\u5177\u670995%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027)\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe3 \u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e1850\u20141900 \u5e74\uff0c2010\u20142019\u5e74\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5f52\u56e0  (a)\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696(\u5168\u7403\u5730\u8868\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347)\u53ca\u5176\u975e\u5e38\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8303\u56f4(\u9ed1\u8272\u7ec6\u7ebf)\uff1b(b)\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u603b\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5747\u5300\u6df7\u5408\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6d53\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7531\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u3001\u81ed\u6c27\u548c\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u53d8\u5316(\u5730\u8868\u53cd\u5c04\u7387)\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7c7b\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u548c\u706b\u5c71\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u4ee5\u53ca\u5185\u90e8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u7387\u3002\u9ed1\u8272\u7ec6\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8303\u56f4\uff1b(c)\u5404\u79cd\u4eba\u7c7b\u5f71\u54cd\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u3001\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u53ca\u5176\u524d\u4f53\u7684\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u53d8\u5316(\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u53cd\u5c04\u7387\u548c\u704c\u6e89)\u548c\u822a\u7a7a\u8f68\u8ff9\u3002\u9ed1\u8272\u7ec6\u7ebf\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8303\u56f4[12]<\/span><\/p>\n


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2021\u5e748\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u7684IPCC\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u6bcb\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\u7684(unequivocal)[12]\u3002\u56fe3\u663e\u793a\u7684\u662f\u8fd9\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u5f52\u56e0\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e1850\u20141900\u5e74\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u5747\u5300\u6df7\u5408\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u5927\u4f53\u4f1a\u4f7f2010\u20142019\u5e74\u589e\u6e291.5\u2103\uff0c\u800c\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u6c14\u4f53\u5927\u81f4\u4f1a\u964d\u6e290.4\u2103\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u4ee5\u53ca\u706b\u5c71\u6d3b\u52a8\u6574\u4f53\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0d\u660e\u663e\u3002\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u3001\u7532\u70f7\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c2e\u6c27\u5316\u7269\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u4f1a\u589e\u6e290.8\u2103\uff0c\u7532\u70f7\u4f1a\u589e\u6e290.5\u2103\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u6c14\u4f53\u589e\u6e29\u6709\u9650\uff1b\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u6574\u4f53\u4f1a\u6d88\u51cf\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u7684\u589e\u6e29\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u786b\u5316\u7269\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u67090.5\u2103\u7684\u964d\u6e29\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u7532\u70f7\u7684\u589e\u6e29\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u9ed1\u78b3\u5177\u6709\u5fae\u5f31\u7684\u589e\u6e29\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u867d\u7136IPCC\u5386\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4e0d\u65ad\u6df1\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u6240\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u57fa\u4e8e\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6307\u7eb9\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


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[1] https\uff1a\/\/mpimet.mpg.de\/en\/staff\/externalmembers\/klaus-hasselmann<\/span><\/section>\n
[2] Hasselmann K. Deutsche Hydrographische Zeitschrift\uff0c1958\uff0c11\uff1a207<\/span><\/section>\n
[3] von Storch H\uff0cHasselmann K. Seventy Years of Exploration in Oceanography\uff1aA Prolonged Weekend Discussion with Walte rMunk. Berlin\uff1aSpringer\uff0c2010<\/span><\/section>\n
[4] Hewitt R\uff0cCremades R\uff0cKovalevsky D et al. Climate Policy\uff0c2020\uff0c21\uff1a434<\/span><\/section>\n
[5] Hasselmann K. On the Signal- to- noise Problem in Atmospheric Response Studies. In\uff1aShaw D (Eds.). Meteorology Over the Tropical Oceans. Bracknell\uff1aRoyal Meteorological Society. 1979\uff0cpp.251\u2014259<\/span><\/section>\n
[6] Hasselmann K. Tellus\uff0c1976\uff0c28\uff1a473<\/span><\/section>\n
[7] Hasselmann K. Journal of Climate\uff0c1993\uff0c6\uff1a1957<\/span><\/section>\n
[8] Hasselmann K\uff0cBengtsson L\uff0cCubasch U et al. Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change Using a Fingerprint Method. Report\uff0cMax-Planck-Institut f\u00fcr Meteorologie\uff0c1995\uff0cp.168<\/span><\/section>\n
[9] Hegerl G\uff0cvon Storch H\uff0cHasselmann K et al. Journal of Climate\uff0c1996\uff0c9\uff1a2281<\/span><\/section>\n
[10] Hasselmann K. Climate Dynamics\uff0c1997\uff0c13\uff1a601<\/span><\/section>\n
[11] \u80e1\u5a77\uff0c\u5b59\u9896. \u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c2021\uff0c17(6)\uff1a644<\/span><\/section>\n
[12] IPCC. 2021\uff1aSummary for Policymakers. In\uff1aClimate Change 2021\uff1aThe Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press\uff0cIn Press<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u70b9\u51fb\u201c\u9605\u8bfb\u539f\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u8df3\u8f6c\u62a5\u540d\u94fe\u63a5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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