{"id":32487,"date":"2022-02-17T22:54:24","date_gmt":"2022-02-17T14:54:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=32487"},"modified":"2022-02-17T22:54:24","modified_gmt":"2022-02-17T14:54:24","slug":"erik-hoel%ef%bc%9a%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e6%b6%8c%e7%8e%b0%e7%90%86%e8%ae%ba%e6%80%8e%e6%a0%b7%e8%bf%9e%e9%80%9a%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%82%e4%b8%8e%e5%be%ae%e8%a7%82","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=32487","title":{"rendered":"Erik Hoel\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u600e\u6837\u8fde\u901a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u5fae\u89c2"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/a>\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4e3a\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6210\u3001\u751f\u547d\u8d77\u6e90\u3001\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7b49\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5b8f\u89c2\u6d8c\u73b0\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u601d\u8def\u30021\u670826\u65e5\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u63d0\u51fa\u8005Erik Hoel\u505a\u5ba2\u96c6\u667a\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u3002\u5728\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0cErik Hoel\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u5e76\u5206\u4eab\u4e86\u4ed6\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u672c\u6587\u68b3\u7406\u4e86Erik\u8bb2\u5ea7\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u903b\u8f91\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u62a5\u544a<\/a>\u4e2d\uff0cErik\u9996\u5148\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u566a\u97f3\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f62\u6210\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0cErik\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u7528\u4e8e\u5ea6\u91cf\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6846\u67b6\uff1a\u5373\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n


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Erik\u8fd8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\u300aCausal emergence is widespread across measures of causation\u300b[1]\uff1a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u56de\u5e94\u4e86\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u5373\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0b\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u4f8b\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u591a\u79cd\u5ea6\u91cf\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6846\u67b6\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c2\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u666e\u904d\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4efb\u4f55\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e0b\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7279\u4f8b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u6700\u7ec8\uff0cErik\u5c55\u671b\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u4f46\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8bc6\u522b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u4eba\u8111\u795e\u7ecf\u7cfb\u7edf\uff09\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Erik Hoel<\/span> <\/span>| \u8bb2\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5f20\u7ae0<\/span> <\/span>| \u6574\u7406<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> | \u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/span>
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\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u548c\u5fae\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u6839\u636e\u5fae\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f97\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u6839\u636e\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u7a7a\u95f4\u53ca\u5171\u540c\u8003\u8651\u65f6\u7a7a\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u72b6\u6001\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8f\u89c2\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe1\uff1a\u4e09\u7c7b\u65b9\u6cd5\u627e\u5230\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u72b6\u6001<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5217\u4e3a\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u7a7a\u95f4\u89d2\u5ea6\u5b9a\u4e49\u5904\u4e8e\u5fae\u89c2\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u539f\u672c\u72b6\u6001\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u539f\u672c\u72b6\u6001\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u8282\u70b9\u7ec4\u6210\u65b0\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u5982\u5c06\u5c06BCD\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u89c4\u7ea6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8f\u89c2\u8282\u70b9\u03bc|A\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u65b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u5219\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5176\u4e2dCS<\/span>macro<\/span><\/sub>\u4ee3\u8868\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0cCSmicro<\/span><\/sub>\u5219\u4ee3\u8868\u5fae\u89c2\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5730\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u7684\u5deeCE\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u4ee3\u8868\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u60f3\u8c61\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5176\u7cfb\u7edf\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5e76\u4e0d\u9ad8<\/span>\uff08\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u8fc7\u91cd\u65b0\u5212\u5b9a\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5f88\u9ad8<\/span>\uff08\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u7ea2\u5fae\u89c2\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5dee\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6c34\u5e73\u4e86\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u5f88\u591a\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u91cf\u5316\u5730\u5ea6\u91cf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c0f\u8282\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u6700\u65e9\u5728\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u5ea6\u91cf\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u91cf\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

2. \u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8bc6\u522b\u4efb\u610f\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6[3]\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8d8a\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u5176\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u5982\u4e0b\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\n

\u56fe2\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u72b6\u6001\u8f6c\u79fb\u6982\u7387\u77e9\u9635<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n


<\/section>\n
\u4e0a\u56fe\u4f7f\u7528\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u8f6c\u79fb\u6982\u7387\u77e9\u9635\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ecet\u65f6\u523b\u5230t+1\u65f6\u523b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u8f6c\u79fb\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u5b9a\u4e49\u72b6\u6001A\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

<\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u4e0a\u5f0f\u4e2d\uff0cEI(A)\u8868\u793a\u72b6\u6001A\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8be5\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u7531\u4e24\u4e2a\u5206\u5e03\u7684KL\u6563\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u4e00\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u5206\u5e03\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\uff09<\/span>\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\uff0c<\/sub>\u662f\u6307\u5f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8eA\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u7cfb\u7edf\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u800c<<\/sub>>\u5219\u662f\u6307\u5f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8e\u6700\u5927\u71b5\u5206\u5e03\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0b\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u7406\u89e3\u9488\u5bf9\u72b6\u6001A\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd9\u8861\u91cf\u4e86\u5f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8eA\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u672a\u6765\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u968f\u673a\u6270\u52a8\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u672a\u6765\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9ad8\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u5355\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5b9a\u4e49\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u5355\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

<\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\u4ece\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u51fa\u53d1\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u4e24\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u51fa\u53d1\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7b49\u4ef7\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6240\u8c13\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u4efb\u610f\u4e00\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u5c5e\u6027\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u7740\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u4e0a\u8ff0\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u7684KL\u6563\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u89e3\u5f97\u5230\uff0c \u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u7b2c\u4e00\u6027\u539f\u7406\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6240\u8c13\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u6307\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u67d0\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u51fa\u53d1\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0b\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f53\u524d\u5904\u4e8e\u54ea\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u4ee5\u6982\u73871\u786e\u5b9a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0b\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u800c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u5219\u6307\u5f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0a\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u7b80\u5e76\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u7cbe\u786e\u627e\u5230\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u4e0a\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u5b9a\u4e49\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

<\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u90fd\u4ee51\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6f14\u5316\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5927\u5c0f\u4e3alog2<\/sub>(N)\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e0\u8bba\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8e\u4f55\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0b\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u71b5H[<\/sub>]\u90fd\u4e3a0\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u5730\uff0c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u524d\u4e00\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u5f53\u524d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u7b80\u5e76\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u72b6\u6001\u6709\u76f8\u7b49\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u8f6c\u79fb\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u8282\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6bcf\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u90fd\u4ee51\/2\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8f6c\u79fb\u81f3\u5de6\u53f3\u4e24\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u6700\u5c0f\uff0c\u4e3a0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u65f6<\/sub>\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e2d\u7684\u84dd\u8272\u5b50\u56fe\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u9ad8\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u548c\u4f4e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e00\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\u4e0b\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u9ec4\u8272\u5b50\u56fe\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u9ad8\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u548c\u4f4e\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5904\u4e8e\u6700\u5927\u71b5\u5206\u5e03\u65f6\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u672a\u6765\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u56fe3\uff1a\u4e0d\u540c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf\u793a\u610f\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u786e\u5b9a\u4e14\u975e\u7b80\u5e76\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u7684\u5dee\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e0e\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u5355\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u518d\u6c42\u671f\u671b\u662f\u7b49\u4ef7\u7684\u3002\u5982\u4e0b\u5f0f\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/section>\n

<\/h2>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

3. \u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6548\u5e94<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u524d\u6587\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u5ea6\u91cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u8f6c\u79fb\u77e9\u9635\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u4e0a\u653e\u7f6e\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u5b50\uff0c\u8be5\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u5b50\u968f\u7740\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u8fde\u8fb9\u8fdb\u884c\u6e38\u8d70\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8282\u70b9\u7c7b\u6bd4\u4e8e\u524d\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5c06\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u5b50\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7c7b\u6bd4\u4e8e\u524d\u6587\u4e2d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u95f4\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4ece\u800c\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u82e5\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u6c34\u5e73\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9488\u5bf9\u8be5\u7f51\u8def\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u201c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7f51\u7edc\u201d\uff1a\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u786e\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u5b50\u4ece\u54ea\u91cc\u6e38\u8d70\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u53c8\u5c06\u8fd0\u52a8\u5230\u54ea\u91cc\u53bb\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u662f\u660e\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u5b8f\u89c2\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u7ec4\u5408\u89c4\u5219\u660e\u786e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u662f\u5426\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5fae\u89c2\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe5\uff1a\u86cb\u767d\u8d28\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0<\/span><\/section>\n
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4. \u4e0d\u540c\u56e0\u679c\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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Erik Hoel\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\u56de\u5e94\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u603b\u7ed3\u4e8612\u79cd\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e76\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u6240\u6709\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0b\u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u5e76\u975e\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u5b9a\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5ea6\u91cf\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u539f\u5219\uff1a\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5982\u679c\u65e2\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5219\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u4fbf\u6709\u7740\u660e\u786e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u800c\u5145\u5206\u6027\u548c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5206\u522b\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0a\u5f0f\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u539f\u56e0c\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u4ee5\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7ed3\u679ce\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5219c\u548ce\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0a\u5f0f\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u539f\u56e0c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5df2\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u89c2\u6d4b\u4e0d\u5230\u7ed3\u679ce\u7684\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5219c\u548ce\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u975e\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u505a\u6269\u5c55\u7684\u5145\u5206\u6027\u548c\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff1a\u5145\u5206\u6027\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u82e5c\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8ba9e\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5219\u8bf4\u660ec\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9e\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u5145\u5206\u7684\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8bf4\u660e\u7531c\u5230e\u7684\u8f6c\u5316\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u7b80\u5e76\u6027\uff0c\u82e5c\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5bf9e\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7531c\u5230e\u7684\u8f6c\u5316\u662f\u975e\u7b80\u5e76\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u8fd9\u91cc\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5145\u5206\u6027\u548c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u867d\u7136\u5b9a\u6027\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u7b49\u540c\uff1a\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u5206\u522b\u4e3aA\u3001B\u3001C\u3001D\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u76ee\u524d\u5904\u4e8eA\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0b\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230ABCD\u4efb\u4e00\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f1\/4\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5145\u5206\u6027\u662f1\/4\uff0c\u4f46\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eceA\u51fa\u53d1\u7684\u5230\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u672a\u6765\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u548c\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u71b5\u6982\u7387\u751f\u6210\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u672a\u6765\u72b6\u6001\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u533a\u522b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u9664\u6709\u6548\u4fe1\u606f\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5f31\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4e5f\u666e\u904d\u9075\u5faa\u7740\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Ellery Eells\u66fe\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679cc\u662fe\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48c\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u5fc5\u987b\u63d0\u5347e\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5373<\/sub>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u5ea6\u91cf\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u8bf4\u660e\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5982\u679c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8f83\u5f3a\u4e14\u5145\u5206\u6027\u8f83\u5f3a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u4fbf\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u88ab\u8457\u540d\u56e0\u679c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u56fe\u7075\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005Judea Pearl\u5728\u63d0\u524d\u4e0d\u77e5\u60c5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u518d\u6b21\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u67d0\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u590d\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u591a\u4e2a\u91cf\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u6240\u6709\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u56e0\u679c\u5f3a\u4e8e\u5fae\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\uff0c\u5373\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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5. \u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5e94\u7528<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u76ee\u524d\u867d\u5e76\u672a\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u88ab\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u80fd\u591f\u770b\u5230\u5176\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5e7f\u9614\u5e94\u7528\u524d\u666f\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u6bd4\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u66f4\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u566a\u58f0\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5bb9\u9519\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u795e\u7ecf\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u5f88\u591a\u566a\u58f0\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0a\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u9c81\u68d2\u7684\uff0c\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u601d\u60f3\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u5efa\u6a21\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6307\u5bfc\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e00\u539f\u5219\u8fdb\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u51fa\u5177\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5e76\u5177\u5907\u7279\u5b9a\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc6\u522b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff1a\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u6838\u78c1\u5171\u632f\u6210\u50cf<\/span>\uff08fMRI\uff09<\/span>\u6280\u672f\u4fbf\u662f\u4ece\u5b8f\u89c2\u89c2\u6d4b\u5927\u8111\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u662f\u89c2\u5bdf\u5927\u8111\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5462\uff1f\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u6216\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u627e\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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6. \u603b\u7ed3<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u81ea\u5f00\u5c55\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5171\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5341\u516d\u6b21\u8ba8\u8bba\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u671f\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u5e78\u8fd0\u5730\u9080\u8bf7\u5230\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u8005Erik Hoel\u505a\u5ba2\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002Erik\u7684\u5206\u4eab\u4e0d\u4f46\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u8fd8\u5206\u4eab\u4e86\u4ed6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5c1a\u672a\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u8bf8\u5982\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u7406\u8bba\u6216\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5177\u6709\u6d8c\u73b0\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53c8\u5982\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u548c\u7269\u79cd\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bdd\u9898\u5982\u6b64\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u4fbf\u662f\u6d8c\u73b0\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u201c\u5723\u676f\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u5219\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9886\u57df\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u63a2\u7d22\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u63a8\u8350\u6240\u6709\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bdd\u9898\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u52a0\u5165\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fd9\u7247\u6c99\u6ee9\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b9a\u8fd8\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u5b9d\u77f3\uff0c\u7b49\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u53bb\u53d1\u73b0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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7. \u5f69\u86cb<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u8ba8\u8bba\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u540e\u7528\u4e00\u70b9\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u804a\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u6b21\u8ba8\u8bba\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5173\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6536\u83b7\uff1a\u5173\u4e8eErik \u6700\u65b0\u5c0f\u8bf4\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cErik Hoel\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8bf4\u4f5c\u8005\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5904\u5973\u4f5c\u300aThe Revelations\u300b<\/span>\uff08\u542f\u793a\u5f55\uff09<\/span>\u83b7\u5f97\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u91ce\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\uff0c\u4ece\u5e0c\u814a\u795e\u8bdd\u8c08\u5230\u52a8\u7269\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u9ed1\u6697\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u5927\u7684\u672a\u89e3\u4e4b\u8c1c\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5c0f\u8bf4\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u5bf9\u5c16\u7aef\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u610f\u8bc6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cErik\u5728\u5176\u4e2a\u4eba\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u8bf4\u201c\u300aThe Revelations\u300b\u7684\u51fa\u7248\u662f\u6211\u505a\u8fc7\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7684\u672b\u5c3e\u8ba8\u8bba\u73af\u8282\uff0c\u5cb3\u7389\u6d9b\u4e0eErik Hoel\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u6458\u5f55\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5cb3\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u5bb6\uff0c\u6211\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u8ba2\u4e86\u4f60\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u51c6\u5907\u5f00\u59cb\u8bfb\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6211\u5728\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5199\u4e00\u90e8\u5c0f\u8bf4\u3002\u6211\u5f88\u597d\u5947\u4f60\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u79d1\u7814\u548c\u5199\u4f5c\u8fd9\u4e24\u56de\u4e8b\u7684\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

Erik\uff1a\u975e\u5e38\u611f\u8c22\u4f60\u4e70\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u4e66\uff08\u7b11\uff09\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6211\u5c0f\u65f6\u5019\u5728\u6211\u5988\u5988\u7684\u4e66\u5e97\u957f\u5927\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fc7\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5199\u4f5c\u548c\u9605\u8bfb\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u6211\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u6765\u90fd\u60f3\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\u628a\u79d1\u5b66\u653e\u8fdb\u6587\u5b66\u4f5c\u54c1\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u6587\u5b66\u4f5c\u54c1\u4e2d\u5f88\u5c11\u89c1\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u4f60\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u54c1\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u60f3\u628a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u653e\u8fdb\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u6211\u5728\u8bfb\u535a\u58eb\u671f\u95f4\u5199\u5c0f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5360\u7528\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u6211\u7684\u5bfc\u5e08\u4e0d\u592a\u5f00\u5fc3\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8fc7\u6211\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u5176\u5b9e\u6211\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u6211\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u6bcf\u5e74\u53ea\u53d1\u8868\u4e24\u5230\u4e09\u7bc7\u6211\u771f\u6b63\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u5c3d\u91cf\u4e0d\u662f\u538b\u7f29\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5173\u6ce8\u5728\u771f\u6b63\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4e0a\uff0c\u55ef\u2026\u2026\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6211\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u957f\u671f\u8fd9\u6837\u575a\u6301\u4e0b\u53bb\uff08\u7b11\uff09\u3002\u5bf9\u4e86\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u4f60\u7684\u5c0f\u8bf4\u5199\u4f5c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6709\u6240\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u8bb0\u5f97\u8981\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5cb3\uff1a\u8c22\u8c22\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u8fd8\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u5f88\u6b22\u8fce\u4f60\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

Erik\uff1a\u90a3\u592a\u68d2\u4e86\uff0c\u5317\u4eacsounds better and better\uff08\u7b11\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u6b63\u5728\u51c6\u5907\u5c06Erik Hoel\u7684\u5c0f\u8bf4\u300a\u542f\u793a\u5f55\u300b\u5176\u8bd1\u6210\u4e2d\u6587\uff0c\u656c\u8bf7\u671f\u5f85\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/h2>\n

[1] Comolatti R, Hoel E. Causal emergence is widespread across measures of causation[J]. arXiv preprint arXiv:2202.01854, 2022.<\/span><\/section>\n
[2] Brennan Klein and Erik Hoel. 2020. \u201cThe Emergence of Informative Higher Scales in Complex Networks.\u201d Complexity 2020 (2020): 1\u201312.<\/span><\/section>\n

[3] Erik Hoel, Larissa Albantakis, and Giulio Tononi. 2013. \u201cQuantifying Causal Emergence Shows That Macro Can Beat Micro.\u201d Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110 (49): 19790\u201395<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u56e0\u679c\u7406\u8bba\u5b66\u4e60\u8def\u5f84<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


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\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u6709\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\uff0c\u63a8\u8350\u62a5\u540d\u53c2\u52a0\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u4e3b\u9898\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8fd8\u6709Erik\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5f55\u64ad\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e200+\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u521d\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6d8c\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e3b\u9898\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u4f46\u9762\u5bf9\u5927\u6846\u67b6\u65e0\u4ece\u4e0b\u624b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u4ece\u521d\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6574\u7406\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u5408\u9002\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u987a\u5e8f\u548c\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u5feb\u901fget\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u8be6\u60c5\u89c1\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

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