{"id":33287,"date":"2022-03-22T21:08:37","date_gmt":"2022-03-22T13:08:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=33287"},"modified":"2022-03-22T21:08:37","modified_gmt":"2022-03-22T13:08:37","slug":"%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e7%ae%80%e5%8f%b2%e5%8f%8a%e9%87%8d%e5%a4%a7%e6%8c%91%e6%88%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=33287","title":{"rendered":"\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7b80\u53f2\u53ca\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2021\u5e74\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u88ab\u6388\u4e88\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce\u548c\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc\uff0c\u201c\u4ee5\u8868\u5f70\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5efa\u6a21\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u201d\u3002\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u610f\u4e49\u91cd\u5927\u3002\u672c\u8def\u5f84\u6574\u7406\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2\u4ee5\u53ca\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

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\u672c\u8def\u5f84\u6574\u7406\u81ea\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u671f<\/span><\/strong>\u300a \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7b80\u53f2\u53ca\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218 \u300b<\/strong><\/a>\uff0c\u4e3b\u8bb2\u4eba\u9648\u5fb7\u4eae\u8001\u5e08\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u9648\u5fb7\u4eae<\/span> <\/span>| \u8bb2\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sophia<\/span> <\/span>| \u6574\u7406<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5ed6\u6234\u4e3d<\/span> <\/span>| \u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


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\u76ee\u5f55<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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1\u3001\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u3001\u73b0\u72b6\u548c\u672a\u6765<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
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    \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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    \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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    \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5386\u53f2<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    2\u3001\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5341\u5927\u6311\u6218<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
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      \u95ee\u98981\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5173\u7cfb\u7f3a\u5931\u95ee\u9898\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span>\u200d<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      \u95ee\u98982\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      \u95ee\u98983\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u6a21\u62df\u548c\u6570\u636e\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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      \u95ee\u98984\uff1a\u805a\u7126\u533a\u57df\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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      \u95ee\u98985\uff1a\u5f3a\u8c03\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

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      \u95ee\u98986\uff1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ee5\u81ea\u7136\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u7a0b<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      \u95ee\u98987\uff1a\u7ea7\u8054\uff08\u4e32\u8054\uff09\u578b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff08tipping point\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      \u95ee\u98988\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6c61\u67d3<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      \u95ee\u98989\uff1a\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u798f\u7949<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n
      \u95ee\u989810\uff1a\u4ece\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u539f\u56e0\u2014\u2014\u5f52\u56e0<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      3\u3001\u672a\u6765\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u548c\u9700\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
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        \u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u4e8e\u628a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u770b\u4f5c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        \u5982\u4f55\u628a\u201c\u6d3b\u7684\u201d\u548c\u201c\u6b7b\u7684\u201d\u4e8b\u7269\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        \u5c06\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6587\u5316\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u5f00\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u6700\u96be\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n


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        1.<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong>\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u3001\u73b0\u72b6\u548c\u672a\u6765<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

        \n

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        <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        1.1 \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u6709\u4e2a\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u62ff\u5730\u7403\u505a\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53ea\u80fd\u505a\u6a21\u62df\u3001\u6a21\u5f0f\u6765\u5f00\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u6765\u81eaIPCC\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u51fa\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u73b0\u72b6\u548c\u672a\u6765\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Human System\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/section>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        IPCC\u76846\u6b21\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u6700\u5f00\u59cb\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5927\u6c14\u3001\u5730\u7403\u8868\u9762\u52a0\u4e0a\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u6d77\u51b0\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u6570\u5e74\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u52a0\u5404\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ece\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u5230\u52a8\u6001\u690d\u88ab\u5230\u5927\u6c14\u5316\u5b66\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u3001\u5316\u5b66\u548c\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u90fd\u7ed3\u5408\u8fdb\u6765\u4e86\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u4e86\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u521a\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u676510-20\u5e74\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u628a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u52a0\u8fdb\u53bb\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u7403\u751f\u547d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u62df\u5668\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5f88\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u5c0f\u7ec4\u90fd\u5728\u505a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/h3>\n

        1.2 \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u628a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a0\u8fdb\u53bb\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u4e86\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7ed9\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u4e09\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1a\u6709\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6027\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u6027\uff0c\u6709\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u65e0\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e09\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u52a8\u6001\u90fd\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5173\u4e8e\u884c\u4e3a<\/span>\uff08Behaviours\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u628a\u4eba\u52a0\u8fdb\u53bb\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c31\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u4e86\u3002\u4eba\u4f1a\u601d\u8003\u3001\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u72af\u9519\uff0c\u4eba\u4e5f\u6709\u884c\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee<\/span>\uff08bias\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4eba\u4e0e\u7269\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fd8\u6709\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4eba\u548c\u673a\u5668\u4eba\u4e92\u52a8\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u79cd\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u90fd\u8ba9\u7814\u7a76\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08Relations\uff09<\/span>\u4e5f\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u4e86\u3002\u4eba\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u6027\u52a8\u7269\uff0c\u4eba\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5939\u6742\u7740\u5f88\u591a\u7269\u8d28\u4fe1\u606f\u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u4ea4\u6362\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u4e9b\u201c\u865a\u201d\u7684\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u5982\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u3001\u5b97\u6559\u7b49\u3002\u8fd1\u4e24\u5e74\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u5373\u4e3a\u4e00\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece\u54ea\u91cc\u5f00\u59cb\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u5f88\u590d\u6742\u7684\u3002\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u4eba\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u66f4\u52a0\u5f00\u653e\u3001\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u4e92\u76f8\u5f71\u54cd\u5c31\u66f4\u591a\u4e86\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5355\u72ec\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316<\/span>\uff08Dynamics\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5728\u6709\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u60c5\u5f62\u4e2d\u6bd4\u8f83\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5f88\u6709\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u5728\u6709\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7a0d\u5fae\u590d\u6742\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u5728\u65e0\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c31\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u4e86\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u65e0\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u4e9b\u6ce2\u5f62\u548c\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u4e9b\u6ca1\u6709\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u4eba\u4e4b\u540e\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u66f4\u52a0\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u4ece\u7efc\u5408\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u80fd\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56fe<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/h3>\n

        1.3 \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5386\u53f2<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u5173\u4e8e\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0b\u56fe\u6765\u56de\u987e\u3002\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u539f\u56fe\u662fSteffen\u7b49\u4eba2020\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684<\/span>\uff08Steffen\u66fe\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u5730\u5708\u751f\u7269\u5708\u7814\u7a76\u8ba1\u5212\uff08IGBP\uff0cThe International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme\uff09\u7684\u4e3b\u4efb\uff08director\uff09\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e0b\u56fe\u662f\u5728\u539f\u56fe\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u4eba\u7269\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u7248\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u53f2\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/section>\n

        \u56fe\u4e2d\u5206\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u5e8f\u5217\u6765\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5217\u662f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5217\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u5217\u662f\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5982\u6d3b\u52a8\u6216\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/h4>\n

        1.4 \u7b2c\u4e00\u5217<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u5168\u7403\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8d77\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u662f\u4ece\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u8ba1\u5212<\/span>\uff08WCRP\uff0cWorld Climate Research Programme\uff09<\/span>\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u4e8e\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e86IGBP\u3002IGBP\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u5730\u7403\u53d8\u5316\u505a\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u51fa\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u540d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff0c\u5982Steffen\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6d77\u6d0b\u9178\u5316\u3001\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u662fIGBP\u63d0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u719f\u6089\u7684IPCC<\/span>\uff08The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff0c1988\u5e74\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u56fe\u4e2d\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u8fd8\u6709IHDP<\/span>\uff08International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u56fd\u9645\u5168\u7403\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u4eba\u6587\u56e0\u7d20\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u505a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u5bf9IHDP\u6bd4\u8f83\u719f\u6089\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u7c7b\u7ef4\u5ea6\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56de\u987e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5386\u7a0b\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4ece\u6c14\u5019\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5230\u4e0b\u57ab\u9762\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u662f\u4e2a\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8fd8\u4e0d\u591f\u5145\u5206\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u540e\u671f\u5c31\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u91cd\u89c6\u8fd9\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        \u5230\u4e86\u5927\u69822000\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u5e94\u8be5\u641e\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u628a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6210\u7acb\u4e86ESSP<\/span>\uff08Earth System Science Partnership\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u57282009\u5e74\uff0c\u9648\u5fb7\u4eae\u6559\u6388\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u7acb\u4e86Earth System vision<\/span>\uff08\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c55\u671b\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c55\u671b\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u6218\u7565\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u591a\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e09\u5e74\uff0c\u89c4\u5212\u521d\u6b65\u6210\u578b\uff0c2012\u5e74\u53d7\u9080\u5728\u5fb7\u56fd\u505a\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u8d77\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16<\/span>\uff08Anthropocene\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u662fPaul Crutzen<\/span>\uff08IGBP\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c<\/span>\uff08Paul Crutzen\u5bf9IGBP\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e5f\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u628a\u5927\u6c14\u3001\u5316\u5b66\u6210\u5206\u548c\u5730\u8868\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\u5f15\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        2010\u5e74Earth System vision\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300aScience\u300b\uff0c\u7531\u591a\u4f4d\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5171\u540c\u5b8c\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u6210\u679c\u662f\u9648\u6559\u6388\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u7684\u6210\u679c\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u6b64\u6b21\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u67093000\u591a\u540d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u670936\u4e2a\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6210\u679c\u6210\u5c31\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5927\u9879\u76eeFuture Earth\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u6b64\u8ba1\u5212\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6210\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u8be5\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u539f\u5219\u3002\u8be5\u8ba1\u5212\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4e94\u5927\u79d1\u5b66\u6311\u6218\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u89c2\u6d4b\u3001\u9608\u503c\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u5bf9\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c55\u671b\uff08Earth System vision\uff092010\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u7d27\u63a5\u7740\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u8c61\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e00\u8d77\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7814\u7a76\u505a\u4e86\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u4e00\u81f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u8d70\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u878d\u5408\u7684\u9053\u8def\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u505a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u4ee5\u524d\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u6c14\u5019\u3001\u5927\u6c14\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\u3002\u81ea\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece2012\u5e74\u5f00\u542f\u4e86Future Earth\u8fd9\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        1.5 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u5217<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e8c\u5217\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u751f\u7269\u754c\u5176\u5b9e\u4ecb\u5165\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u975e\u5e38\u65e9\uff0c1926\u5e74\u5c31\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u751f\u7269\u5730\u7403\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c1972\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u76d6\u4e9a\u5047\u8bf4\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u592a\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u719f\u77e5\u7684\u662f\u8054\u5408\u56fd1987\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u5170\u62a5\u544a<\/span>\uff08Brundtland Report\uff09<\/span>\u300aour common future\u300b\uff0c\u6b64\u62a5\u544a\u7531\u632a\u5a01\u524d\u9996\u76f8\u9996\u5021\uff0c\u5bf9\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u5f88\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        2009\u5e74Rockstr\u00f6m\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f88\u503c\u5f97\u5355\u72ec\u8bb2\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e86\u4e00\u6279\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5927\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u51e0\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u5230\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u7a0b\u5ea6\u505a\u4e86\u8bca\u65ad\uff0c\u5212\u5206\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u533a\u57df\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u7eff\u8272\u4ee3\u8868\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u9ec4\u8272\u4ee3\u8868\u6709\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u4ee3\u8868\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u8b66\u544a\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6d3b\u52a8\u7a7a\u95f4\u57df<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u5728\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u81ed\u6c27\u635f\u5931\u3001\u5927\u6c14\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u9178\u5316\u3001\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e2\u961f\u57282015\u5e74\u53c8\u5bf9\u6b64\u505a\u4e86\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u51e0\u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\u5212\u5206\u5f88\u9002\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u5c55\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u5bf9\u5236\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u5c24\u5176\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u7559\u7ed9\u4eba\u7c7b\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u4ee5\u7f13\u89e3\u5371\u9669\u6027\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u57df\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7559\u7ed9\u4eba\u7c7b\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u591a\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u73b0\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5728\u9ec4\u8272\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5f88\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e29\u9700\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u57281.5\u2103\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u624d\u6bd4\u8f83\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5347\u6e29\u5e45\u5ea6\u5df2\u8fbe1.2\u2103\uff0c\u79bb\u8b66\u544a\u533a\u95f4\u53ea\u67090.3\u2103\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u5316\u8868\u8ff0\u5c31\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u6709\u8b66\u9192\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u5728\u56fe\u4e2d\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5730\u7403\u5316\u5b66\u6d41\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e86\u8b66\u6212\u7ebf\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u6e05\u6670\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u53d1\u5e03\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u786e\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        1.6 \u7b2c\u4e09\u5217<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u7b2c\u4e09\u5217\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f1957\u5e74\u5f88\u6709\u540d\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e74\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u89c2\u6d4b\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u662f1958\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u89c2\u6d4b\uff0c\u636e\u6b64\u4ea7\u51fa\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6570\u636e\u56fe\u6210\u679c\u3002\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\u4e00\u76f4\u523020\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u624d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u52302000\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0cPaul Crutzen\u660e\u786e\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e0e\u5730\u7403\u7684\u8026\u5408\u793a\u610f\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        Paul Crutzen\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u660e\u786e\u5730\u628a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u63d0\u5230\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u540c\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5ea6\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u3002\u4ed6\u4ece\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u5f71\u54cd\u8303\u56f4\u3001\u5f71\u54cd\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u8026\u5408\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08Coupling\uff09<\/span>\u63a2\u8ba8\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u548c\u5730\u7403\u5982\u4f55\u8054\u7ed3\u5f97\u66f4\u7d27\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u8861\u91cf\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u8d8b\u52bf\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u4e0a\u9762\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u662fIGBP\u5f88\u6709\u540d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u628a\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u505a\u6210\u6307\u6807\u8d8b\u52bf\u56fe\u8868\u3002\u7eff\u8272\u7cfb\u56fe\u8868\u662f\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5c55\u793a\uff0c\u4ece\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e2d\u7684\u6c2e\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u7684\u7532\u70f7\u542b\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u5730\u8868\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d77\u6d0b\u9178\u5316\u3001\u70ed\u5e26\u96e8\u6797\u51cf\u5c11\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u5c55\u793a\u5904\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6a59\u9ec4\u8272\u7cfb\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u56fe\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u3001GDP\u589e\u52a0\u7b49\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c20\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e4b\u540e\u5404\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u589e\u52a0\u90fd\u5f88\u5389\u5bb3\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cIGBP\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5404\u7c7b\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u975e\u5e38\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u53ea\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5c11\u6570\u51e0\u4e2a\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u770b\u51fa\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u4ee5\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c20\u4e16\u7eaa50\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e4b\u524d\u4e5f\u6709\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u662f50\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e4b\u540e\u589e\u52a0\u5e45\u5ea6\u660e\u663e\u53d8\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u8868\u793a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u52a0\u901f\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u5bb6\u79bd\u5bb6\u755c\u4e0e\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u7269\u91cd\u91cf\u5bf9\u6bd4\u793a\u610f\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        Bar-On\u5728PNAS\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4eba\u7684\u91cd\u91cf\u662f\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u91ce\u751f\u54fa\u4e73\u52a8\u7269\u91cd\u91cf\u7684\u5927\u7ea610\u500d\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u517b\u6b96\u7684\u7272\u755c\u6570\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u5feb\u3002\u5168\u7403\u7684\u54fa\u4e73\u52a8\u7269\u4e2d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u7269\u7684\u91cd\u91cf\u53ea\u53604%\uff0c\u4eba\u536036%\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u9972\u517b\u7684\u7272\u755c\u536060%\u3002\u9e1f\u7c7b\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u53ea\u670930%\u9e1f\u7c7b\u662f\u91ce\u751f\u7684\uff0c70%\u90fd\u662f\u9e21\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ef4\u6301\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u751f\u547d\u7cfb\u7edf\u800c\u517b\u6b96\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u901a\u4f53\u7cfb\u56fe<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u8fd9\u5f20\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u901a\u4f53\u7cfb\u56fe\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u573a\u666f\u662f\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u4ea4\u901a\u628a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u7269\u90fd\u8054\u7ed3\u5728\u4e86\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u524d\u9762\u8bb2\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u65f6\u63d0\u5230\u7684Networks\u3002\u56fe\u4e2d\u9ec4\u8272\u662f\u57ce\u5e02\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7eff\u8272\u662f\u9646\u5730\u4e0a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u9053\u8def\uff0c\u84dd\u8272\u662f\u6d77\u6d0b\u8fd0\u8f93\u7ebf\uff0c\u767d\u8272\u662f\u822a\u7a7a\u7ebf\u8def\uff0c\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u4ea4\u901a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bc6\u96c6\u7a0b\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u5404\u4e2a\u6210\u5206\u8981\u7d20\u548c\u90e8\u4ef6\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u82cf\u4f0a\u58eb\u4e00\u6761\u8239\u5835\u4e86\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4ea4\u901a\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u7c7b\u5236\u9020\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u592a\u591a\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f2001\u5e74\u963f\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4e39\u53ec\u5f00\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5c06\u6765\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u5217\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u30022003\u5e74\u63a5\u7740\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f1a\u8bae\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u53c8\u53ec\u5f00\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u8bae\u9898\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5927\u5bb6\u5370\u8c61\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u5e94\u8be5\u662f2021\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7269\u7406\u5956\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u7ed9\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        \u8fd9\u4e09\u4f4d\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u505a\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u3002\u771f\u9505\u6dd1\u90ce<\/span>\uff08Syukuro Manabe\uff09<\/span>\u505a\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u514b\u52b3\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fc<\/span> (Klaus Hasselmann) <\/span>\u628a\u968f\u673a\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u548c\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u5f00\u5c55\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u5e15\u91cc\u897f<\/span> (Giorgio Parisi) <\/span>\u4e5f\u505a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u53e4\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5f88\u6709\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u4eba\u7c7b\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u5230\u65e2\u6210\u4e8b\u5b9e<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u4e0a\u56fe\u6765\u81ea\u4eca\u5e74IPCC\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e24\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u8981\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u662f\u745e\u5178\u5316\u5b66\u5bb6Arrhenius Model\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e38\u8c08\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u201c\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u589e\u52a0\u4ee5\u540e\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u6b64\u505a\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\uff0c\u65e9\u57281896\u5c31\u505a\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u4f4d\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c06\u4e8c\u8005\u5173\u7cfb\u7b80\u5316\u5230\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u4e86\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u589e\u52a0\u540e\u5168\u7403\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u521b\u529eIPCC\u7684\u745e\u5178\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6Bert Bolin\uff0c\u5f88\u4e86\u4e0d\u8d77\uff0c\u5f00\u521b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e8b\u4e1a<\/span>\uff08IPCC\u66fe\u83b7\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u548c\u5e73\u5956\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f46\u56de\u6eaf\u4eba\u7c7b\u63a2\u7a76\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0cIPCC\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u5f88\u77ed\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u968f\u7740\u4ee5\u4e0a\u56de\u987e\u7684\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u6210\u679c\u548c\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u4e2d\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u9010\u6e10\u5730\u4e5f\u662f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f3a\u70c8\u5730\u611f\u5230\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u8981\u5ef6\u4f38\uff0c\u8981\u52a0\u5165\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\u5c31\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86Anthroposphere\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5708\u5c42\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5708\u5c42\u5305\u62ec\u786c\u6027\u7269\u8d28\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u8f6f\u6027\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u673a\u6784\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8fd8\u56ca\u62ec\u4e86\u6587\u5316\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u5ff5\u3001\u5b97\u6559\u7b49\u8981\u7d20\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u8054\u7ed3\u7740\u4eba\u7c7b\u5236\u9020\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u4ea7\u91cf\u548c\u7275\u6d89\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u7275\u6d89\u5230\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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        <\/section>\n
        \u66f4\u65b0\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6982\u5ff5\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u90fd\u5728\u505a\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e3eKawamiya\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u5c06\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u653e\u5728\u540c\u7b49\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u65b9\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u6c2e\u5faa\u73af\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u521a\u521a\u628a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u653e\u8fdb\u6765\uff0c\u878d\u5408\u5ea6\u8fd8\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u91cc\uff0c\u628a\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u770b\u4f5c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u628a\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u770b\u4f5c\u53e6\u4e00\u7c7b\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5bfb\u627e\u51e0\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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        <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
        \n

        2.<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/span>\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5341\u5927\u6311\u6218<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

        \n

        <\/section>\n

        <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6a21\u5f0f\u9047\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6709\u8bf8\u591a\u91cd\u8981\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u7b49\u5f85\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u5217\u4e3e\u5341\u5927\u6311\u6218\u95ee\u9898\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u95ee\u98981\uff1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5173\u7cfb\u7f3a\u5931\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f88\u7c97\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u7f51\u683c\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u7f51\u683c\u5927\u5c0f\u4e3a100\u516c\u91cc\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u51b0\u5ddd\u65f6\u5c31\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\u3002\u51b0\u5ddd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53ea\u6709\u51e0\u516c\u91cc\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u5c0f\uff0c\u6545\u800c\u5728\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u5c31\u663e\u73b0\u4e0d\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u51b0\u5ddd\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u6709\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u6cd5\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u8868\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e2d\u7f3a\u5931\u6700\u591a\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u65e9\u671f\u53ea\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u7c7b\u6270\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\u5c31\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u8981\u628a\u53cd\u9988\u73af\u52a0\u8fdb\u53bb\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u4eba\u7c7b\u505a\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u5b50\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u624d\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5faa\u73af\u95ed\u73af\uff0c\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5305\u542b\u4eba\u7c7b\u53cd\u9988\u73af\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u6982\u5ff5<\/span><\/section>\n


        <\/h3>\n

        \u95ee\u98982\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5f88\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u7b80\u8981\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u9996\u5148\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u60c5\u666f<\/span>\uff08Scenarios\uff09<\/span>\u6761\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u666f\u4e0bforcing\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u5c31\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c31\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u4e2d\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u592a\u957f\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f2\u5468\u5230\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u6bd4\u8f83\u91cd\u8981\uff1b\u5173\u4e8e\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f1\u5e74\u81f3\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u6bd4\u8f83\u91cd\u8981\uff1b\u5168\u90e8\u53e0\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u3002\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u786e\u5b9a\u5316\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u9884\u6d4b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6765\u6e90<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

        \u95ee\u98983\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u6a21\u62df\u548c\u6570\u636e\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u6a21\u578b\u6784\u5efa\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u4e0a\u56fe\u91cc\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a\u89c2\u6d4b\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u5c55\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7528\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u6765\u505a\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd0\u884c\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u7528\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u5206\u6790\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u6ca1\u6709\u9519\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u6837\u521b\u65b0\u5730\u5c06\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u8868\u73b0\u6d8c\u73b0\u9650\u5236<\/span>\uff08Emergency constrain\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u6a21\u62df\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u628a\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u5f0f\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\u91cc\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u6709\u4e9b\u5173\u7cfb\u663e\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u89c2\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5206\u6563\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u9650\u5236\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5185\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u5f88\u5de7\u5999\u4e14\u6709\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u95ee\u98984\uff1a\u805a\u7126\u533a\u57df\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u901a\u5e38\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u8bb2\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u5316<\/span>\uff08Global change\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u201c\u5168\u7403<\/span>\uff08Global\uff09<\/span>\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5982\u679c\u8981\u770b\u5230\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u5230\u533a\u57df\uff08Regional\uff09\u751a\u81f3\u5c40\u5730\uff08Local\uff09\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08Scale\uff09<\/span>\u4e0a\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5c06GCM<\/span>\uff08General Circulation Models\uff09<\/span>\u964d\u7ef4\u5230\u533a\u57df\u5373 RCM<\/span>\uff08Regional Circulation Models\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u6837\u641e\u6e05\u695a\u5176\u4e2d\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5168\u7403\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u6a21\u5f0f\u5173\u7cfb\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u95ee\u98985\uff1a\u5f3a\u8c03\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/span>\uff08LLHI\uff0clow-likelihood\uff0chigh-impact outcomes\uff09<\/span>\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7279\u522b\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u4e0d\u600e\u4e48\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u90d1\u5dde\u6d2a\u707e\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u4eba\u53e3\u5bc6\u5ea6\u9ad8\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\u548c\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u90fd\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8981\u5f15\u8d77\u91cd\u89c6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u95ee\u98986\uff1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ee5\u81ea\u7136\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u7a0b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u76ee\u524d\u5b9e\u73b0\u4eba\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u8c10\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u7136\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08Natural based\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u7a0b<\/span>\uff08Geo-engineering\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u5c55\u519c\u4e1a\u6539\u53d8\u4e0b\u57ab\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u5c31\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u53cd\u7167\u7387\u3001\u6539\u53d8\u6c14\u5019\u7b49\uff1b\u6bd4\u5982\u4fee\u5efa\u57ce\u5e02\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u57ce\u5e02\u6c14\u5019\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u80fd\u8fd0\u7528\u597d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u4f1a\u5728\u4fdd\u62a4\u5730\u7403\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u65b9\u9762\u8d77\u5230\u5f88\u5927\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005Martin\u6bcf\u5e74\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u529b\u91cf\u603b\u7ed3\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u6700\u65b0\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u82e5\u60f3\u4e86\u89e3\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u67e5\u9605\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\u662f2021\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u5728Global Sustainability\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
        \n
        \n

        Ten new insights in climate science 2020\u2013a horizon scanPihl ErikGlobal Sustainability\uff082021\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


        <\/h3>\n

        \u95ee\u98987\uff1a\u7ea7\u8054\uff08\u4e32\u8054\uff09\u578b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff08tipping point\uff09<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u7ea7\u8054\uff08\u4e32\u8054\uff09\u578b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff08tipping point\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u8fd9\u5f20\u662fMartin\u57282021\u5e74\u5ea6\u603b\u7ed3\u6c14\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5f88\u591a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9<\/span>\uff08Tipping point\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u5730\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u53d1\u751f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u662f\u770b\u5355\u4e2a\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u4eca\u540e\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u6e05\u695a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e2d9\u4e2a\u516c\u8ba4\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6d77\u6d0b\u3001\u5927\u6c14\u7b49\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u4e92\u76f8\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5317\u6781\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u70ed\u5e26\u96e8\u6797\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u70ed\u5e26\u96e8\u6797\u53d8\u5316\u53c8\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u5357\u6781\u51b0\u5ddd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e32\u8054\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d9\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u8054\u7cfb\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u505a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
        \n
        \n

        Abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over inner East Asia beyond the tipping pointPeng Zhang, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Jin-Ho Yoon, et alscience\uff082020\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


        <\/h3>\n

        \u95ee\u98988\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6c61\u67d3<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u66f4\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u6c61\u67d3\uff0c\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u5065\u5eb7\u5f71\u54cd\u90fd\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u6c61\u67d3\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6d77\u6d0b\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u751f\u6001\u98ce\u9669<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u4e0a\u56fe\u662f2018\u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u56fe\u91cc\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\uff0c\u571f\u58e4\u3001\u6c34\u4e2d\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6c61\u67d3\uff0c\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u90fd\u6709\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6982\u5ff5\u4e2d\u6765\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u4e0d\u540c\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u95ee\u98989\uff1a\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u798f\u7949<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u4ee5\u524d\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u5f97\u4e0d\u591f\u3002\u4eca\u540e\u5e94\u8be5\u628a\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u798f\u7949\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u7684\u751f\u6001\u670d\u52a1\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u798f\u7949<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u4e0a\u56fe\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u798f\u7949\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u7684\u751f\u6001\u670d\u52a1\u5305\u62ec\u81ea\u7136\u65b9\u9762\u8c03\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u6587\u5316\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5ba1\u7f8e\u548c\u7cbe\u795e\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u53bb\u8fc7\u9752\u85cf\u9ad8\u539f\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u51b0\u5ddd\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u5fc3\u7075\u53d7\u5230\u6d17\u6da4\uff0c\u611f\u53d7\u5927\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5e73\u5e38\u8c08\u7269\u7406\u7cfb\u7edf\u65f6\u4e0d\u5927\u8c08\u8d77\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u798f\u7949\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        \u95ee\u989810\uff1a\u4ece\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u539f\u56e0\u2014\u2014\u5f52\u56e0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

        \u4e4b\u524d\u505a\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u4ece\u539f\u56e0\u5230\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08Cause to Effect\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u8981\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u4ece\u770b\u5230\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u627e\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f52\u56e0<\/span>\uff08Attribution\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6709\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f52\u56e0<\/span>\uff08Event attribution\uff09<\/span>\u5f88\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u8fd9\u7a81\u7834\u4e86\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4ece\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u627e\u51fa\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u6bd4\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u4e0e\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u7531\u4ec0\u4e48\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u53ea\u6709\u51e0\u5929\u751a\u81f3\u51e0\u4e2a\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u68ee\u6797\u5927\u706b\u3001\u5bd2\u6f6e\u8fd9\u7c7b\u5929\u6c14\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u90fd\u80fd\u591f\u627e\u51fa\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73b0\u8c61\u4ece\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5982\u4f55\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u5316\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u5957\u7406\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08Framework\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u54c8\u585e\u5c14\u66fcHasselmann\u5c31\u521b\u8bbe\u4e86\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u5957\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u8fd9\u5957\u4f53\u7cfb\u975e\u5e38\u7ba1\u7528\uff0c\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u50cf\u4fa6\u63a2\u4e00\u6837\u628a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u9274\u522b\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3aFingerprinting\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u5404\u7c7b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u53ca\u5f52\u56e0\u96be\u6613\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/span><\/section>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \u5317\u4eac2020\u5e742\u6708\u7a81\u7834\u6027\u964d\u6c34\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/section>\n

        <\/span><\/section>\n

        \u8fd9\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u8005\u88f4\u7433\u5bf92020\u5e742\u6708\u5317\u4eac\u521b\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u964d\u6c34\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e00\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5982\u4f55\u63a2\u7a76\u5176\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u7cfb\uff1f\u56fe\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5f0f\u8def\u5f84\u7528\u7684\u662f\u6982\u7387\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6700\u540e\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1a\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u6982\u7387\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/p>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n
        \n

        <\/section>\n

        <\/section>\n
        \n
        <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
        \n

        3.<\/strong><\/strong> <\/strong><\/span>\u672a\u6765\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u548c\u9700\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

        \n

        <\/section>\n

        <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5e94\u5f53\u4e3a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u79d1\u5b66\u4e3b\u9898\u505a\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\uff1a\u9a71\u52a821\u4e16\u7eaa\u5168\u7403\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u73af\u5883\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4f1a\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u505a\u51fa\u660e\u667a\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7eaa\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u8d28\u5e74\u4ee3\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u8fd8\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0<\/span>\uff08\u4e09\u80ce\u653f\u7b56\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8d44\u6e90\u53c8\u5f88\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u53c8\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u5927\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u5f88\u591a\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u503c\u5f97\u53bb\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6c61\u67d3\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u5065\u5eb7\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5c42\u6b21\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u5c0f\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f00\u59cb\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e0a\u9762\u8bb2\u768410\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u66f4\u591a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5c06\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u6f5c\u529b\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/h3>\n

        3.1 \u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u4e8e\u628a\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u770b\u4f5c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u8981\u628a\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u5fae\u89c2\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5173\u7cfb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5207\u5165\u70b9\u53bb\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u628a\u5929\u6c14\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u5c31\u662f\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/span><\/p>\n

        3.2 \u5982\u4f55\u628a\u201c\u6d3b\u7684\u201d\u548c\u201c\u6b7b\u7684\u201d\u4e8b\u7269\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u201c\u56fa\u5b9a\u6b7b\u677f\u201d\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\u5982\u690d\u88ab\u8986\u76d6\u60c5\u51b5\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5f88\u597d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u628a\u690d\u88ab\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u52a0\u8fdb\u53bb\uff0c\u5c31\u5f88\u96be\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u3002\u690d\u88ab\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u4ea7\u751f\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u690d\u88ab\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u4e5f\u6709\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u690d\u88ab\u84b8\u817e\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\uff0c\u84b8\u817e\u4f5c\u7528\u53d7\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d7\u690d\u7269\u751f\u7406\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5982\u6c14\u5b54\u5927\u5c0f\u3001\u6c14\u5b54\u5173\u95ed\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u5f8b\u3001\u6c14\u5b54\u5f00\u653e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u5bf9\u690d\u7269\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u7406\u76ee\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u90fd\u90fd\u4e0d\u751a\u6e05\u695a\u3002\u5bf9\u690d\u7269\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u90fd\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u8981\u8bf4\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e86\u3002\u4eba\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u806a\u660e\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u7b28\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5230\u5e95\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u89e3\uff1f\u4f8b\u5982\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u76ee\u524d\u6709\u4e9b\u707e\u5bb3\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u62df\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u653e\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/h3>\n

        3.3 \u5c06\u81ea\u7136\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6587\u5316\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u5f00\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u6700\u96be\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\u6587\u5316\u53c8\u662f\u6700\u96be\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7cbe\u795e\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u91cf\u548c\u7269\u8d28\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5176\u76f8\u4e92\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6a21\u62df\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u3001\u7cbe\u795e\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


        <\/p>\n

        \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

        [1] Pihl Erik. Ten new insights in climate science 2020\u2013a horizon scan. Global Sustainability, 2021, 4<\/span><\/p>\n

        [2] Peng Zhang, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Jin-Ho Yoon, et al. Abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over inner East Asia beyond the tipping point. science, 2020, 370(6520)<\/span><\/p>\n


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