{"id":33409,"date":"2022-03-28T19:23:39","date_gmt":"2022-03-28T11:23:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=33409"},"modified":"2022-03-29T22:13:32","modified_gmt":"2022-03-29T14:13:32","slug":"%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e9%87%8f%e5%8c%96%e5%af%b9%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e8%b4%a3%e4%bb%bb%ef%bc%9f%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8e%e7%ae%80%e5%8c%96%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e6%a8%a1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=33409","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u91cf\u5316\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\uff1f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b80\u5316\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The contributions of individual countries and regions to the global radiative forcing<\/span><\/p>\n

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https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2018211118<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u5982\u679c b \u663e\u8457\u5927\u4e8e0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8868\u793a\u53ef\u68c0\u6d4b\u5230\u8be5\u56e0\u5b50\u5bf9\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u77e9\u9635 X \u4e00\u822c\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u5f0f\u6216\u8005\u7b80\u5316\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6700\u5178\u578b\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u6307\u7eb9\u6cd5\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u662f\u5168\u7403\u589e\u6e29\u7684\u68c0\u6d4b\u5f52\u56e0\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f52\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f9d\u8d56\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5f52\u56e0\u7684\u786e\u5207\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e5f\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002\u57281990\u5e74 IPCC \u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u91cc\uff0c\u8ba4\u5b9a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u8bc1\u636e\u8fd8\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u5230\u4e861996\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fa8\u522b\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u52302001\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\u6709\u5173\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684 IPCC \u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u662f\u6bcb\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n
2\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8003\u8651\u5230\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6781\u503c\u96be\u4ee5\u88ab\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u5bf9\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u5f52\u56e0\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5dee\u5f02\u6216\u8005\u8d85\u8fc7\u67d0\u9608\u503c\u7684\u91cd\u73b0\u671f\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f8b\u5982 Sun et al. <\/span>(2014) <\/span>\u57fa\u4e8e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e1c\u90e8\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u4e8660\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1bSchaller et al. <\/span>(2016) <\/span>\u4f7f\u7528\u5168\u5f3a\u8feb\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u5f3a\u8feb\u5206\u522b\u9a71\u52a8\u533a\u57df\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u6765\u6a21\u62df\u6c14\u538b\u548c\u964d\u6c34\uff0c\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u4eba\u4e3a\u5f3a\u8feb\u8f7b\u5fae\u4f46\u663e\u8457\u5730\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u897f\u98ce\u548c\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n
3\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u654f\u611f\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u9664\u4e86\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5916\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u57fa\u4e8e\u654f\u611f\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u6c14\u5019\u5f52\u56e0\uff0c\u5373\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6846\u67b6\u516c\u7ea6<\/span>\uff08UNFCCC\uff09<\/span>\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u591a\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c14\u5019\u8d23\u4efb\u8bc4\u4f30\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u8fb9\u9645\u5f52\u56e0\u6cd5<\/span>\uff08Normalized marginal attribution method\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u56e0\u4e00\u679c\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5f52\u56e0\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8ba1\u7b97\u5404\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6839\u636e\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u8ba1\u7b97\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4e0e\u603b\u91cf\u76f8\u4e58\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u7edd\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u6211\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5148\u8ba1\u7b97\u6211\u56fd\u51cf\u63921\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684CO2<\/sub>\u540e\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a<\/span>\u8feb\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u0394China<\/sub>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u51cf\u63921\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4dCO2<\/sub>\u540e\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u0394Other<\/sub><\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u6211\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

\n<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/p>\n

\n<\/section>\n
\u4e0e\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u603b\u91cf\u76f8\u4e58\uff0c\u5373\u5f97\u5230\u6211\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
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 <\/span><\/p>\n

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\n

<\/section>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u4e09\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u5f52\u56e0\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n
\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

\n

\n
1\u3001\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d23\u4efb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
 <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u81ea\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\u90fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u9996\u6b21\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e26\u5165\u5171\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\u4e1a\uff0c\u4e3a\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ca\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u800c\u505a\u51fa\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u76d1\u7ba1\u5404\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u53d1\u8868\u4e8ePNAS<\/em>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u8fb9\u9645\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u7b80\u5316\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08reduced-complexity Earth System model\uff09<\/span>OSCAR v3.1 \u8fdb\u884c\u6c14\u5019\u5f52\u56e0\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5206\u4e3a OECD, ASIA, REF, LAM, MAF\u4e94\u4e2a\u5927\u533a\uff0c\u518d\u5728\u4e94\u4e2a\u5927\u533a\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u533a\uff0c\u5171\u8ba115\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u91cf\u5316\u5404\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u56fe1. \u4e16\u754c15\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u51c0\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6587\u7ae0\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u627f\u62c5\u4e8621.9\u00b13.1 %\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u6b27\u76df15\u56fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e8613.7\u00b11.6 %\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ec5\u8d21\u732e\u4e868.6\u00b17.0%<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u56fe1\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u4e4b\u524d\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\uff08Li et al., 2016\uff09<\/span>\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u8d21\u732e10%\u00b14%\u7565\u6709\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u65b0\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e91\u548c\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08aerosol\u2013cloud interaction\uff0cACI\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u56fe2\u6240\u793a\u3002\u4e91\u548c\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u6307\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u6392\u653e\u7684\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e91\u51dd\u7ed3\u6838\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u4e91\u91cc\u9762\u7684\u5fae\u7269\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u6765\u81ea\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u3001\u9ed1\u70ad\u7b49\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6b63\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u51c0\u8f90\u5c04\u589e\u957f\u76f8\u5bf9\u7f13\u6162\u3002\u6b27\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u7531\u4e8e\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u6392\u653e\u7684\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u51c0\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u572870\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u5448\u73b0\u8fc5\u731b\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u6539\u5584\u7a7a\u6c14\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u52a0\u5267\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u8feb\u5207\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span>                           <\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe2. \u4e2d\u56fd\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7ec4\u6210\u53ca\u5176\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n
2\u3001\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u81ea\u4e3b\u51cf\u6392\u5bf9\u51cf\u7f13\u5347\u6e29\u7684\u8d21\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u5398\u6e05\u5404\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e94\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d23\u4efb\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u5404\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u81ea\u4e3b\u51cf\u6392\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u51cf\u7f13\u672a\u6765\u589e\u6e29\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5c06\u7ed9\u653f\u5e9c\u672a\u6765\u51cf\u6392\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u8c08\u5224\u5e26\u6765\u6307\u5bfc\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f5c\u8005\u57fa\u4e8e\u65e0\u653f\u7b56\u60c5\u666f<\/span>\uff08No police scenario, NP\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u81ea\u4e3b\u51cf\u6392\u60c5\u666f<\/span>\uff08Nationally determined contributions\uff0cNDC\uff09<\/span>\u5206\u522b\u6a21\u62df\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u589e\u6e29\uff0c\u5c06\u4e24\u8005\u76f8\u51cf\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u51cf\u7f13\u3002\u57fa\u4e8eOSCAR\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u5404\u533a\u57df\u51cf\u6392\u91cf\u5bf9\u5347\u6e29\u51cf\u7f13\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u5404\u533a\u57df\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe3. \u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/section>\n
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3\u3001\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53cd\u9988\u5bf9CO2<\/sub><\/span><\/strong><\/span>\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u8d21\u732e<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
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\u50cf\u7532\u70f7\u3001\u81ed\u6c27\u548c\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u8fd9\u7c7b\u77ed\u5bff\u547d\u6c14\u5019\u5f3a\u8feb\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u5176\u5927\u6c14\u5bff\u547d\u6bd4\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u8981\u77ed\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u53ea\u6709\u77ed\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u679c\u6392\u653e\u505c\u6b62\uff0c\u5176\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u4e5f\u4f1a\u505c\u6b62\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5f71\u54cd\u6c14\u5019\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u78b3\u6c47\u548c\u5927\u6c14CO2<\/sub>\u6d53\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u989d\u5916\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4f46\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53d8\u6696\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u5927\u6c14CO2<\/sub>\u6d53\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/strong>\u3002\u91cf\u5316\u77ed\u5bff\u547d\u6c14\u5019\u5f3a\u8feb\u56e0\u5b50\u901a\u8fc7\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53cd\u9988\u5bf9\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u4ed6\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u548c\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u5bf9\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5728\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u57fa\u4e8eOSCAR v2.2 \u4f7f\u7528\u8fb9\u9645\u5f52\u56e0\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53cd\u9988\u8bc4\u4f302010\u5e74\u77ed\u5bff\u547d\u6c14\u5019\u5f3a\u8feb\u56e0\u5b50\u5bf9CO2<\/sub>\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u9996\u5148\u5c06\u5386\u53f2\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u4eba\u4e3a\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u5f3a\u8feb\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u5c06\u5927\u6c14CO2<\/sub>\u6d53\u5ea6\u53ca\u5176\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u5386\u53f2\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u3001\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u548c\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u6700\u540e\u5c06\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5c06\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53cd\u9988\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u975eCO2<\/sub>\u6c14\u5019\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u7532\u70f7\u3001\u81ed\u6c27\u548c\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6587\u7ae0\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e1750\u5e74\uff0c\u57282010\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u5730\u8868\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\u7ea60.83K\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dCO2<\/sub>\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u7ea60.68K\u7684\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u7532\u70f7\u8d21\u732e\u4e860.21K\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u4e3a\u6392\u653e\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u62b5\u6d88\u4e860.39K\u7684\u5347\u6e29<\/strong>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\uff0c2010\u5e74CO2<\/sub>\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\uff081.81 W\/m2<\/sup><\/span>\uff09\u4e2d0.09 W\/m2<\/sup><\/span>\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53cd\u9988<\/span>\uff08\u56fe4\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5bf9\u6e29\u5ea6\u5f71\u54cd\u8d8a\u5927\u7684\u6c14\u4f53\uff0c\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e5f\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8109\u51b2\u77ed\u5bff\u547d\u6c14\u5019\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0cCO2<\/sub>\u6d53\u5ea6\u4fe1\u53f7\u6301\u7eed\u4e8650-60\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53d1\u751f\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u690d\u88ab\u51c0\u521d\u7ea7\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u51cf\u5c11\u53ca\u5f02\u517b\u547c\u5438\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/span> <\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe4. \uff08a,b\uff09 \u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u524d\uff081750\u5e74\uff09\uff0c2010\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5730\u8868\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\uff08b\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5f3a\u8feb\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\uff08c\uff092010\u5e74CO2<\/sub>\u603b\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u5e94\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\uff08d\uff09\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53cd\u9988\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u6c14\u5019\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u6c14\u5019\u5f52\u56e0\u662f\u8bc4\u4f30\u591a\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6c14\u5019\u5f52\u56e0\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d23\u4efb\u3002\u5f52\u56e0\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u539f\u7406\u4e0a\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0d\u540c\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u7b80\u5316\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982OSCAR\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u5f52\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u6709\u826f\u597d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u6c14\u5019\u5f52\u56e0\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u6c14\u5019-\u78b3\u5faa\u73af\u53cd\u9988\u5bf9\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u8f90\u5c04\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u81ea\u4e3b\u51cf\u6392\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u589e\u6e29\u51cf\u7f13\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u4ed8\u535a<\/strong>\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u57ce\u5e02\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u5b66\u9662\u535a\u96c5\u535a\u58eb\u540e\u3001\u52a9\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u4e8b\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f52\u56e0\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7edf\u8ba1\u548c\u7b80\u5316\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u5728Nature Climate Change, PNAS\u7b49\u56fd\u9645\u9876\u7ea7\u520a\u7269\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u3002\u66fe\u83b7\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u4f18\u79c0\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u201c\u6797\u8d85\u9752\u5e74\u5b66\u8005\u201d\u7b49\u5b66\u672f\u8363\u8a89\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
1. Fu B, Gasser T, Li B, et al. Short-lived climate forcers have long-term climate impacts via the carbon\u2013climate feedback[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10(9): 851-855<\/span><\/section>\n
2. Fu B, Li B, Gasser T, et al. The contributions of individual countries and regions to the global radiative forcing[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021, 118(15).<\/span><\/section>\n
3. Fu B, Li J, Gasser T, et al. Climate warming mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, under review<\/span><\/section>\n
4. Sun, Y., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. et al. Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China. Nature Clim Change 4, 1082\u20131085 (2014).<\/span><\/section>\n
5. Schaller, N., Kay, A., Lamb, R. et al. Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Clim Change 6, 627\u2013634 (2016). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nclimate2927<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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