{"id":35077,"date":"2022-06-09T19:27:23","date_gmt":"2022-06-09T11:27:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=35077"},"modified":"2022-06-09T19:27:23","modified_gmt":"2022-06-09T11:27:23","slug":"%e5%a4%a7%e8%84%91%e8%ae%a4%e7%9f%a5%e7%9a%84%e3%80%8c%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e6%80%a7%e7%ba%a2%e5%88%a9%e3%80%8d%ef%bc%9a%e7%ae%80%e5%8d%95%e5%b0%b1%e8%b6%b3%e5%a4%9f%e5%a5%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=35077","title":{"rendered":"\u5927\u8111\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u300c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7ea2\u5229\u300d\uff1a\u7b80\u5355\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\u597d"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span>Human inference reflects a normative balance of complexity and accuracy<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/span>https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-022-01357-z<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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\u5373\u4f7f\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u662f\u5426\u201c\u503c\u5f97\u201d\uff1f\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e3a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u6a21\u578b\u6027\u80fd\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u7684\u786e\u5207\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8ba1\u7b97\u548c\u5185\u5b58\u64cd\u4f5c\u6570\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u56fe1\u4e2d\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2a\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6210\u672c\u968f\u7740\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u7ebf\u6027\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7b97\u6cd5\u590d\u6742\u6027\u53d1\u6563\u5230\u65e0\u7a77\u5927\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe2. \u590d\u6742\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u9012\u51cf\u3002\uff08a\uff09\u56fe1\u4e2d\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u3002\uff08b\uff09\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\u9012\u51cf\u3002\uff08c\uff0cd\uff09\u5e42\u5f8b\u7684\u6307\u6570\u968f\u566a\u58f0\uff08c\uff09\u548c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08d\uff09\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002\uff08e\uff0cf\uff09\u5728\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u548c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u548c\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u968f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u5b83\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6536\u76ca\u9012\u51cf\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u56fe2\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4f1a\u4f7f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u9010\u6e10\u53d8\u5c0f<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2b-f\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u6700\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u8fbe\u5230\u6700\u5927\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u9ad8\u566a\u97f3\u548c\u4f4e\u566a\u97f3\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f4e\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6700\u4f18\u6a21\u578b\u768410%\u4ee5\u5185<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2e\u4e2d\u6d45\u84dd\u8272\u548c\u6df1\u84dd\u8272\u7684\u7ebf\u6761\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u5f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u8f83\u5927\u65f6\uff0c\u4f4e\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0e\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u6837\u597d<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u56fe2f \u4e2d\u7684\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u68d5\u8272\u7ebf\u6761\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u7a0b\u5e8f\u53ea\u5728\u6709\u4e2d\u7b49\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u548c\u4f4e\u57fa\u672c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684\u72ed\u7a84\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6709\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u8bba\u5728\u201c\u8db3\u591f\u597d\u201d\u7684\u9608\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u662f\u7a33\u5065\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2e, f\u4e2d\u9ed1\u8272\u9608\u503c\u7ebf\u7684\u79fb\u52a8\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5bf9\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5b9e\u73b0\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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 <\/span><\/p>\n

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3. \u7b80\u5355\u901a\u5e38\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\u597d<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u9762\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u9012\u51cf\u5e42\u5f8b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u624d\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8f83\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\u597d<\/strong>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u548c\u4e2d\u7b49\u566a\u97f3\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6781\u5176\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b56\u7565<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8bc1\u636e\u3001\u5148\u9a8c\u548c\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e4e\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5f88\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u51e0\u4e4e\u548c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u6837\u597d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u591a\u53d8\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u4f4e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u662f\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u7528\u6027\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u566a\u58f0\uff0c\u5f53\u566a\u58f0\u8fc7\u9ad8<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u90fd\u4e00\u6837\u5dee\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u8fc7\u4f4e<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u751a\u81f3\u7b80\u5355\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4e5f\u5f88\u597d\uff09<\/span>\u65f6\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u597d\u5904\u5c31\u4e0d\u590d\u5b58\u5728\u4e86<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\u65f6\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u5355\u8c03\u6027<\/span>\uff08’\u5012U’\uff09<\/span>\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4f4e\u548c\u9ad8\u566a\u97f3\u65f6\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e2d\u7b49\u566a\u97f3\u65f6\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff1b\u5f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u8f83\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u603b\u662f\u8db3\u591f\u597d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u56fe3. \u7b80\u5355\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u7b56\u7565\u901a\u5e38\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\u4e86\u3002\u5f69\u56fe\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u548c\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u6bcf\u79cd\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6700\u4f73\u6027\u80fd10%\u4ee5\u5185\u7684\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f30\u8ba1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u7a0d\u5fae\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08\u56fe3b\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9ad8\u566a\u97f3\u548c\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f4e\u566a\u97f3\u8de8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u51e0\u4e4e\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u4e00\u6837\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0b\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u566a\u58f0\u4ece\u96f6\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u8bc1\u636e\u548c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5148\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u53d8\u5f97\u6709\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5f53\u566a\u58f0\u53d8\u5f97\u5f88\u9ad8\u65f6<\/span>\uff08\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53c8\u8db3\u4ee5\u8fbe\u5230\u63a5\u8fd1\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u9884\u6d4b\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u8f83\u4f4e\u65f6\uff0c\u826f\u597d\u4f30\u8ba1\u6240\u9700\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0e\u566a\u58f0\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5012U\u578b\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u566a\u58f0-\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u95ee\u9898\u6bd4\u9884\u6d4b\u95ee\u9898\u66f4\u80fd\u4ece\u4f7f\u7528\u590d\u6742\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u65b9\u6848\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u539f\u5219\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u6700\u540e\u8fd8\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u7269\u7406\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5c06\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u63a8\u7406\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u548c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e0a\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u4e0e\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u5012 U \u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u666e\u904d\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u6a21\u578b\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u968f\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6216\u5de5\u4f5c\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7b56\u7565\u53ea\u5728\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u548c\u4e2d\u7b49\u566a\u97f3\uff0c\u800c\u5de5\u4f5c\u8bb0\u5fc6\u5728\u7a0d\u5bbd\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u662f\u6709\u7528\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u9ad8\u566a\u97f3\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u8ba4\u77e5\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u4efb\u52a1\u96be\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5012U\u578b\u5173\u7cfb\uff1a\u5f53\u63a8\u7406\u5bb9\u6613\u65f6\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5c31\u8db3\u591f\u4e86\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5f53\u6765\u81ea\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5f53\u524d\u8bc1\u636e\u9ad8\u5ea6\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5386\u53f2\u4fe1\u606f\uff1b\u5f53\u63a8\u7406\u56f0\u96be\u65f6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5f53\u4f20\u5165\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u975e\u5e38\u5608\u6742\u6216\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u597d\u5904\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587 Abstract<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

We must often infer latent properties of the world from noisy and  changing observations. Complex, probabilistic approaches to this  challenge such as Bayesian inference are accurate but cognitively  demanding, relying on extensive working memory and adaptive processing.  Simple heuristics are easy to implement but may be less accurate. What  is the appropriate balance between complexity and accuracy? Here we  model a hierarchy of strategies of variable complexity and find a power  law of diminishing returns: increasing complexity gives progressively  smaller gains in accuracy. The rate of diminishing returns depends  systematically on the statistical uncertainty in the world, such that  complex strategies do not provide substantial benefits over simple ones  when uncertainty is either too high or too low. In between, there is a  complexity dividend. In two psychophysical experiments, we confirm  specific model predictions about how working memory and adaptivity  should be modulated by uncertainty.<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u9876\u520a\u8bba\u6587\u901f\u9012\u680f\u76ee\u4e0a\u7ebf\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u5f55\u6765\u81eaNature\u3001Science<\/span>\u7b49\u9876\u520a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63a8\u51fa\u8ba2\u9605\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u300c\u96c6\u667a\u6591\u56fe\u300d\u63a8\u9001\u8bba\u6587\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u4e0b\u65b9\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u4e00\u952e\u8ba2\u9605\uff1a<\/span>
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