{"id":35127,"date":"2022-06-11T21:24:47","date_gmt":"2022-06-11T13:24:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=35127"},"modified":"2022-06-11T21:24:47","modified_gmt":"2022-06-11T13:24:47","slug":"%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e8%a7%82%e7%82%b9%e7%a9%ba%e9%97%b4%e6%9e%81%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e5%be%ae%e8%a7%82%e5%8a%a8%e5%8a%9b%e5%ad%a6%ef%bc%9a%e4%b9%8c%e5%85%8b%e5%85%b0%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=35127","title":{"rendered":"\u653f\u6cbb\u89c2\u70b9\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff1a\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u5e94\u7528"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Olivia J. Chu\u3001Jonathan F. Donges\u3001Graeme B. Robertson\u3001Grigore Pop-Eleches<\/span> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The microdynamics of spatial polarization: A model and an application to survey data from Ukraine<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u867d\u7136\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6c11\u4f17\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316<\/span>\uff08\u4e0d\u540c\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e0e\u5730\u7406\u5206\u5e03\u76f8\u5173\uff09<\/span>\u975e\u5e38\u666e\u904d\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5206\u6b67\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u673a\u5236\u4e86\u89e3\u751a\u5c11\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u51b2\u51fb\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5176\u5c40\u90e8\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236<\/span>\uff08local dynamics\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7531\u5148\u524d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08discussion networks\uff0c\u5982\u7ebf\u4e0b\u793e\u4ea4\u7b49\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u524d\u610f\u89c1\u5206\u6b67\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5371\u673a\u524d\u5728\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u7684\u591a\u6570\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5e94\u8be5\u671d\u7740\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u6001\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u66f4\u8d8b\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u4e4b\u95f4\u3001\u6709\u65f6\u751a\u81f3\u533a\u57df\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5730\u7406\u6781\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u6765\u81ea\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8c03\u67e5<\/span>\uff08panel survey\uff0c\u56fa\u5b9a\u6837\u672c\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8c03\u67e5\uff09<\/span>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e 2012 \u5e74\u672b\u81f3 2015 \u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170[1]\u548c\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4e1c\u6b27[2]\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u6216\u6b21\u8981\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u5b83\u53cd\u6620\u548c\u5851\u9020\u4e86\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u613f\u666f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7edf\u4e00\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u4e24\u8f6e\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8868\u660e\uff0c2013 \u5e74\u81f3 2014 \u5e74\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u72ec\u7acb\u5e7f\u573a\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u603b\u7edf\u7ef4\u514b\u6258\u00b7\u4e9a\u52aa\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u5728\u51b3\u5b9a\u6682\u505c\u4e0e\u6b27\u76df\u5c31\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7ed3\u76df\u534f\u8bae\u8fdb\u884c\u8c08\u5224\u540e\u88ab\u6297\u8bae\u63a8\u7ffb\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8be5\u56fd\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u6781\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u5c40\u90e8\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u516c\u6c11\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u70ed\u70b9\u95ee\u9898\u201d\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u52a0\u7b26\u5408\u5f53\u5730\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u5e76\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u72ec\u7acb\u5e7f\u573a\u9769\u547d\u540e\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f7f\u7528\u5730\u7406\u52a0\u6743\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u6765\u663e\u793a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301<\/span>\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u56de\u5e94\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u8861\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\uff09<\/span>\u5730\u65b9\u6c11\u610f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u7c7b\u578b\u662f\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u9009\u6c11\u6a21\u578b\uff08AVM<\/strong>\uff09\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u4e2a\u4f53\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u5bfc\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u53d8\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cAVM \u4e0e\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u4e8e\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u6837\u672c\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u6700\u7ec8\u6001\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u672c\u6587\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u672c\u5730\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u6001\u5ea6\u5b58\u5728\u7a7a\u95f4\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u51b2\u51fb\u4e3a\u4f55\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5316\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u660e\u786e\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5373\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7a81\u51fa\u7a0b\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u65f6\uff0c\u89c2\u70b9\u6781\u5316\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6700\u521d\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u968f\u540e\u5728\u5730\u65b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5730\u65b9\u6216\u533a\u57df\u6027\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5f02\u89c1\u4eba\u58eb\u5982\u4f55\u80fd\u591f\u4e0d\u4ec5\u751f\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u65e5\u76ca\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u7406\u8bba\u5316\u5e76\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e9\u671f\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u5c40\u90e8\u5f71\u54cd\u5bf9\u4e2a\u4eba\u6001\u5ea6\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u673a\u5236[3,4]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6784\u5efa\u4e86 AVM \u7684\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7528\u4e8e\u89c2\u70b9\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5141\u8bb8\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u5185\u90e8\u53d1\u751f\u89c2\u70b9\u5c42\u9762\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9 AVM \u7684\u6269\u5c55\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u6765\u81ea\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5730\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u8ba8\u8bba\u9891\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u6784\u5efa\u5177\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u800c\u65e0\u9700\u5173\u4e8e\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u7684\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7531\u6001\u5ea6\u548c\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u53d8\u5316\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u672c\u5730\u5c40\u90e8\u548c\u5168\u5c40\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u76f8\u5bf9\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u770b\u5230\u4eba\u9645\u4e92\u52a8\u5982\u4f55\u63a8\u52a8\u5728\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6781\u5316\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f<\/span>\uff08\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u96be\u4ee5\u6536\u96c6\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7ed3\u5408\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7ea7\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u90fd\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u672f\u793e\u533a\u6765\u601d\u8003\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6570\u636e\u6536\u96c6\u5982\u4f55\u76f8\u4e92\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u4e00\u8d77\u7528\u6765\u505a\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u63cf\u8ff0\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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3. \u7406\u8bba\u90e8\u5206<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
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\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u6ce8\u6001\u5ea6\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u540c\u533a\u57df\u6216\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6001\u5ea6\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6700\u8fd1\u5173\u4e8e\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5de5\u4f5c\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5173\u4e8e\u4f4f\u5b85\u5206\u7c7b<\/span>\uff08residential sorting\uff09<\/span>\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba[6-8]\uff0c\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8bb8\u591a\u5730\u65b9<\/span>\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\uff09<\/span>\u5c45\u6c11\u4f4f\u5b85\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e92\u8865\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4eec\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6001\u5ea6\u4ee5\u5339\u914d\u5f53\u5730\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u642c\u8fc1\uff0c\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316\u4e5f\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e2\u4e0d\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6001\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u79cd\u6001\u5ea6\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u515a\u6d3e\u652f\u6301\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316[9,10]\u548c\u60c5\u611f\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316[11]\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u76f8\u5173\u4f46\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba8\u8bba\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u6001\u5ea6\u548c\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u4e3a\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u79cd\u6001\u5ea6\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u88abBeissinger[12]\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u591a\u4e8b\u201d<\/span>\uff08eventful\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u6001\u5ea6\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u3002\u5b83\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u9769\u547d\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u620f\u5267\u6027\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u4f5c\u7528[13]\u3002\u5f53\u201c\u70ed\u70b9\u95ee\u9898\u201d[14]\u6216\u201c\u5f00\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201d[15]\u6210\u4e3a\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5c24\u5176\u660e\u663e\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u91cd\u8981\u548c\u70ed\u95e8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u51fa\u73b0\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6001\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u5927\u7684\u5206\u6b67[16]\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u523060\u591a\u5e74\u524d[17] \uff0c\u4f46\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6240\u5ffd\u89c6\uff0c\u5b83\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5730\u65b9\u80cc\u666f\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u515a\u6d3e\u8ba4\u540c[9,18]\u3001\u5bf9\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u6001\u5ea6[19]\u548c\u5baa\u6cd5\u95ee\u9898[20]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5f80\u5f80\u671d\u7740\u793e\u533a\u591a\u6570\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u7ed3\u5408\u8fd9\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u5f53\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\u7a81\u51fa\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u538b\u529b\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u6001\u5ea6\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u5d4c\u5165\u5230\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u73af\u5883\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5148\u524d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u5730\u7406\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u4f4f\u5b85\u5206\u7c7b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u4e5f\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u653f\u6cbb\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5316\u4e0d\u65ad\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u591a\u6570\u610f\u89c1<\/span>\uff08\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c2\u70b9\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u770b\u5230\u5730\u533a\u5185\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u5dee\u5f02\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u540c\u8d28\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5148\u524d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7ad9\u5728\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5730\u7406\u5355\u4f4d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u5dee\u5f02\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5927\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u5730\u89c2\u70b9\u6bd4\u8f83\u5747\u5300\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u53ef\u4ee5\u671f\u5f85\u770b\u5230\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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4. \u6570\u636e\u548c\u80cc\u666f<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4e3a\u4e86\u68c0\u9a8c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86 2012 \u5e74\u81f3 2015 \u5e74\u95f4\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u901a\u8fc7\u9762\u5bf9\u9762\u8bbf\u8c08\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5177\u6709\u5168\u56fd\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5728 2012 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u7684 1,800 \u540d\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u4e2d\uff0c\u5230 2015 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u91cd\u65b0\u91c7\u8bbf\u5176\u4e2d\u7684 924 \u4eba\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5173\u6ce8\u5728\u4e24\u6b21\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u6790\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8c03\u67e5\u6536\u96c6\u4e86\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5728\u8bbf\u8c08\u65f6\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7531\u4e8e\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u805a\u96c6\u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u90fd\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u5173\u653f\u6cbb\u8c08\u8bdd\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u6982\u7387\u65b9\u5f0f\u6355\u83b7\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u7279\u5f81[21]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u8c03\u67e5\u95ee\u5377\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u652f\u6301\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u7b49\u7ea7\uff1a\u53cd\u5bf9\u3001\u4e2d\u7acb\u548c\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5173\u6ce8\u6b27\u76df\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u652f\u6301\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5bf9\u652f\u6301\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u5174\u8da3\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u5bf9\u6d4b\u8bd5\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u6001\u5ea6\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u52bf\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u6db5\u76d6\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u516c\u6c11\u5bf9\u652f\u6301\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0<\/span>\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5916\u751f\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c2013 \u5e74 11 \u6708\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u653f\u5e9c<\/span>\uff08\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\uff09<\/span>\u7a81\u7136\u64a4\u9500\u4e86\u4e4b\u524d\u7b7e\u7f72\u300a\u6b27\u76df\u8054\u5408\u534f\u5b9a\u300b<\/span>\uff08EU Association Agreement\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u8be5\u534f\u8bae\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u9010\u6b65\u878d\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\u3002\u8be5\u58f0\u660e\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4ece\u9996\u90fd\u8513\u5ef6\u5230\u8be5\u56fd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u4e8e 2014 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u4e9a\u52aa\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u573a\u8fd0\u52a8\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u79f0\u4e3a\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u793a\u5a01\u8fd0\u52a8<\/span>\uff08Euromaidan\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u5c0a\u4e25\u9769\u547d<\/span>\uff08Revolution of Dignity\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u548c\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u8981\u6c42[22]\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u9898\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u5411\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u8be5\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u8fd8\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u540c\u76df [23,24]\u3002\u968f\u7740\u4e9a\u52aa\u79d1\u7ef4\u5947\u653f\u5e9c\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fc5\u901f\u541e\u5e76\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\uff0c\u4e4c\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u652f\u6301\u7684\u53db\u519b\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u65f7\u65e5\u6301\u4e45\u3001\u4eba\u5458\u4ee3\u4ef7\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u8fd9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u6301\u6709\u5c11\u6570\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u4e24\u6b21\u8c03\u67e5\u4e4b\u95f4\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u4f18\u52bf\u662f\uff0c\u504f\u597d\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u5730\u7406\u5206\u5e03\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u897f\u90e8\u548c\u4e2d\u90e8\uff0c2012 \u5e74\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005<\/span>\uff0857.6%\uff09<\/span>\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df<\/span>\uff08\u53ea\u670915% \u53cd\u5bf9\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u4eba\u6570\u7565\u591a\u4e8e\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8005<\/span>\uff0832.8% \u5bf9 29%\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f02\u8d28\u6027\u4e5f\u5728\u56fe1<\/span>\uff08\u5de6\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u8be5\u56fe\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u4ece\u6211\u4eec 2012 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6570\u636e\u91cc\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u504f\u597d\u7684\u5dde\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5e76\u7a81\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u4e2d\u897f\u90e8\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u5bf9\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u660e\u786e\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f4d\u4e8e\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\u7684\u5dde\u66f4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e4b\u95f4\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe1. \u4e4c\u514b\u51702012-2015\u5e74\u95f4\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\uff08\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\uff09\u652f\u6301\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u683c\u5c40\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u6b27\u76df\u57282012\u5e74\u8c03\u67e5\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u7684\u5dde\u5e73\u5747\u652f\u6301\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ece2012\u52302015\u5e74\u652f\u6301\u7387\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u53f3\uff09\u3002\u5de6\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u8303\u56f4\u4ece0\uff08\u666e\u904d\u53cd\u5bf9\uff09\u52301\uff08\u666e\u904d\u652f\u6301\uff09\uff0c\u800c0.5\u8868\u660e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u53f3\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b63\u503c\uff08\u84dd\u8272\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u800c\u8d1f\u503c\uff08\u7ea2\u8272\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u53f3\u8fb9\u6ca1\u6709\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\uff08C\uff09\u3001\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\uff08D\uff09\u548c\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\uff08L\uff09\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5360\u9886\u540e\u7f3a\u5931\/\u622a\u65ad\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u3002\u6bcf\u5f20\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\u7684\u7c97\u9ed1\u7ebf\u5c06\u897f\u90e8\u548c\u4e2d\u90e8\u533a\u57df\u7684\u5dde\u4e0e\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\u533a\u57df\u5212\u5206\u5f00\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u505a\u51fa\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6ca1\u6709\u884c\u653f\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u72ec\u7acb\u5e7f\u573a\u9769\u547d\u548c\u968f\u540e\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4fb5\u7565\u540e\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4eba\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u652f\u6301\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684[25,26]\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u63a9\u76d6\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5dee\u5f02\uff1a\u52302015\u5e74\u5728\u897f\u90e8\u548c\u4e2d\u90e8\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c<\/span>\uff0866.4%\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df<\/span>\uff08\u53ea\u67099.4%\u7684\u4eba\u53cd\u5bf9\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5728\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u8005\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5219\u4ece2012\u5e74\u52302015\u5e74\u90fd\u6709\u6240\u589e\u52a0<\/span>\uff08\u5206\u522b\u589e\u52a0\u5230\u4e8636.8%\u548c32.8%\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u541e\u5e76\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u5bf9\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u652f\u6301\u6709\u6240\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u56fd\u5bb6\u56e2\u7ed3\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u8eab\u4efd\u8ba4\u540c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6bd4\u4ee5\u524d\u66f4\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u653f\u6cbb\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u56fe1\u4e2d\uff0c\u53f3\u56fe\u4f7f\u7528\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u4e2a\u4f53\u7ea7\u6570\u636e\u805a\u5408\u5230\u5dde\u7ea7\u522b\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1a\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4e2d\u897f\u90e817\u4e2a\u5dde\u4e2d\u768415\u4e2a\u5dde\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u7387\u90fd\u57282012-2015\u5e74\u95f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\u76846\u4e2a\u5dde\u4e2d\uff0c\u67094\u4e2a\u5dde\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u90fd\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u7565\u6709\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5728\u56fe2\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u653e\u5927\u4ee5\u663e\u793a\u5c40\u90e8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6001\u5ea6\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u8fd9\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u57fa\u4e8e\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u6001\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u8005\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u4efd\u989d\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u81f3\u5c11\u6bd4\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9ad850%\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u5f3a\u70c8\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u98a0\u5012\uff0c\u5219\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u6b27\u76df\u3002\u56fe2\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u8be5\u56fd\u4e0d\u540c\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u9075\u5faa\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u671d\u7740\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u5728\u897f\u90e8\u548c\u4e2d\u90e8\uff0c\u5f3a\u70c8\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u57ce\u9547\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ece2012\u5e74\u768449%\u589e\u52a0\u52302015\u5e74\u768464%<\/span>\uff08\u800c\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u57ce\u9547\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u4e2d\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ffd\u7565\u4e0d\u8ba1\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\uff0c\u5f3a\u70c8\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u57ce\u9547\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e5f\u5728\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u901f\u5ea6\u8f83\u6162\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u57fa\u6570\u8981\u4f4e\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u53cd\u6b27\u76df\u5360\u591a\u6570\u7684\u57ce\u9547\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u6f6e\u6d41\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5730\u65b9\u5206\u6b67\u4e5f\u5728\u52a0\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u56fe2. \u57282012-2015\u5e74\u95f4\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\u4e862012\u548c2015\u5e74\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u5f3a\u70c8\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u6216\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u6b27\u76df\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5927\u533a\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u56fe1\u548c\u56fe2\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u57282012\u5e74\u660e\u663e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u652f\u6301\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u591a\u6570\u6d3e\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u57282015\u5e74\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u57282012\u5e74\u5e73\u5206\u79cb\u8272\u6216\u53cd\u6b27\u76df\u5360\u591a\u6570\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u6001\u5ea6\u8981\u4e48\u4ecd\u7136\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u53cd\u6b27\u76df\u60c5\u7eea\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4e9b\u805a\u5408\u6a21\u5f0f\u7b26\u5408\u4e00\u822c\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u662f\u7531\u5c40\u90e8\u73af\u5883\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u907f\u514d\u57fa\u4e8e\u805a\u5408\u6570\u636e\u5f97\u51fa\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7ed3\u8bba\u65f6\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u751f\u6001\u8c2c\u8bef\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u6587\u201c\u6a21\u578b\u201d\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u8f6c\u5411\u4e2a\u4eba\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u672c\u5730\u8bed\u5883\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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5. \u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


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\u52a8\u673a\u4e0e\u80cc\u666f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u5f71\u54cd\u610f\u89c1\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span>\uff08opinion dynamics\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0e\u7279\u5b9a\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5c1a\u4e14\u8f83\u5f31[28]\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u586b\u8865\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u548c\u5efa\u6a21\u4ea4\u53c9\u9886\u57df\u7684\u7a7a\u767d\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8c03\u67e5\u548c\u5398\u6e05\u9020\u6210\u72ec\u7acb\u5e7f\u573a\u9769\u547d\u540e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528 Holme \u548c Newman [29]\u63d0\u51fa\u7684 AVM \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5b9a\u5236\u5316\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u8be5\u6269\u5c55\u7531\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ea7\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u606f\u3002AVM \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u7c7b\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u968f\u673a\u591a\u4e3b\u4f53\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u63a2\u7d22\u8282\u70b9\u5c5e\u6027\u4e0e\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251\u6216\u7ed3\u6784 [30\u201332] \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0cAVM \u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e2a\u4f53\u662f\u8282\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8282\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fb9\u8868\u793a\u67d0\u79cd\u8fde\u63a5\u6216\u4ea4\u4e92[33]\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u6301\u6709\u51e0\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u6807\u51c6 AVM \u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u5185\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e00\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u540c\u8d28\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f62\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u5efa\u7acb\u8fde\u8fb9<\/span>\uff08\u800c\u672a\u5f62\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8fde\u8fb9\u88ab\u5207\u65ad\uff09<\/span>\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u91c7\u7eb3\u5176\u67d0\u4f4d\u90bb\u5c45\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u3002\u6b64\u6a21\u578b\u4ec5\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u03c6\uff09\u63a7\u5236\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u51e0\u4e2a\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u4eab\u76f8\u540c\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206<\/span>\uff08\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff09<\/span>\u5230\u5206\u88c2\u6210\u201c\u5c9b\u5c7f\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u5c9b\u5c7f\u4e0a\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5171\u4eab\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e0d\u4e0e\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4eba\u4e92\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u67d0\u79cd\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\uff0c \u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4f53\u6536\u655b\u6210\u5355\u4e00\u610f\u89c1\u96c6\u7fa4\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728Twitter\u4e0a[34]\uff0c\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u7f51\u7edc\u5c55\u793a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u8282\u70b9\u914d\u5bf9[35]\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u4f9d\u9644\u4e8e\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u4e00\u7ec4\u7ec4\u5fd7\u540c\u9053\u5408\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u867d\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5feb\u7167\uff0c\u5e76\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u5316\u4ece\u4f55\u5904\u4ea7\u751f\u4ee5\u53ca\u54ea\u4e9b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u7acb\u5373\u6e05\u695a\u7684[36-38]\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c<\/span>\uff08\u793e\u4f1a\uff09<\/span>\u7f51\u7edc\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u662f\u5426\u652f\u914d\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u662f\u5426\u652f\u914d\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e24\u8005\u517c\u6709\u4e4b\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u652f\u914d\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u52a8\u6001\u53cd\u9988\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8c03\u6574\u7684 AVM\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u53c2\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u89c2\u70b9\u5728\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u52a8\u540e\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5b83\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u89c4\u5219 \uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684 AVM \u975e\u5e38\u9002\u5408\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u6c9f\u901a\u5982\u4f55\u5851\u9020\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u672c\u5730\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u8206\u8bba\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u53d8\u5316\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u4fee\u6539\u540e\u7684 AVM \u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u5728\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u7684\u8d28\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u7531\u4e8e\u5c06\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u6210\u5230\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5206\u6790\u662f\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\u7684\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u53cd\u6620\u57fa\u7840\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u66f4\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u90bb\u63a5\u77e9\u9635\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6765\u6269\u5c55\u6807\u51c6 AVM\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u4e2a\u4f53\u8c03\u67e5\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8ba8\u8bba\u9891\u7387\u6765\u6539\u53d8\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u4e3a\u540c\u8d28\u6027\u91cd\u7ec4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86\u5730\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u5728\u5207\u65ad\u8fde\u63a5\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f18\u5148\u4e3a\u5176\u7a7a\u95f4<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u5730\u7406\uff09<\/span>\u793e\u533a\u4e2d\u5fd7\u540c\u9053\u5408\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u521b\u5efa\u65b0\u7684\u8fde\u8fb9\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u786e\u4fdd\u94fe\u8def\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fc7\u5feb\u5730\u4ece\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4e22\u5931\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u786e\u4fdd\u4e86\u5efa\u6a21\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5730\u7406\u5b8c\u6574\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u5c31\u5176\u94fe\u8def\u8ddd\u79bb\u5206\u5e03\u4ee5\u53ca\u94fe\u8def\u8ddd\u79bb\u548c\u6001\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u9ad8\u9636\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u800c\u8a00\uff09<\/span>\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u94fe\u8def\u91cd\u7ec4\u6b65\u9aa4\u800c\u8fc5\u901f\u7834\u574f[39]\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5b9a\u5236\u7684 AVM \u7684\u6027\u80fd\u4e0e\u6807\u51c6 AVM \u7684\u6027\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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6. \u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6b65\u9aa4\u5448\u73b0\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u4f7f\u7528 AVM \u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u52a0\u6743\u56de\u5f52\u6765\u663e\u793a\u672c\u5730\u6001\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2a\u4f53\u6c34\u5e73\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5730\u7406\u4fe1\u606f AVM \u5728\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u672c\u5730\u610f\u89c1\u540c\u8d28\u5316\uff09<\/span>\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u826f\u597d\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u5730\u7406\u7a7a\u95f4\u5728\u89e3\u91ca 2012 \u5e74\u81f3 2015 \u5e74\u95f4\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u6a21\u5f0f\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u67d0\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u540c\u8d28\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u5219\u66f4\u52a0\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u4e24\u8f6e\u8c03\u67e5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u6c34\u5e73\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u56fe 3\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u8c03\u67e5<\/span>\uff08\u4ece 2015 \u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6001\u5ea6\u4e0e\u56db\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u5de6\u4fa7\u805a\u7c7b\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7248\u672c\u7684 AVM \u7684\u8f93\u51fa\uff0c\u800c\u53f3\u4fa7\u805a\u7c7b\u4f7f\u7528\u5730\u7406\u52a0\u6743\u7a7a\u95f4\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u4fe1\u606f\u8f93\u5165\u4e0e\u76f8\u5e94\u7684 AVM \u76f8\u540c\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u805a\u7c7b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u5c55\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u7ebf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4ec5\u5305\u542b\u4e2a\u4eba\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08\u5bf9\u52a0\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u8ba8\u8bba\u6307\u6570\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u6709\u5173\u5f53\u5730\u80cc\u666f\/\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0b\u6001\u5ea6\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe3. \u4e2a\u4f53\u9884\u6d4b-\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5b9e\u9645\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e2015\u5e74\u8c03\u67e5\uff09\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56db\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6001\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u56fe 3 \u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u662f\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u6709\u5173\u5f53\u5730\u6001\u5ea6\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u672c\u5730\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u8fd9\u70b9 AVM \u662f\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5f88\u5f3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5ffd\u7565\u90a3\u4e9b\u672c\u5730\u6548\u5e94\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u663e\u8457\u7684\u9057\u6f0f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u89e3\u91ca\u80fd\u529b\u59cb\u7ec8\u9ad8\u4e8e AVM \u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u4e24\u8f6e\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u6765\u5f00\u53d1\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f6e\u548c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u6001\u5ea6\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002AVM \u4e0d\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u4f7f\u7528\u6700\u521d\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u8ba8\u8bba\u9891\u7387\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2a\u4eba\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6bd4\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u548c\u9610\u660e\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5f15\u8a00\u4e2d\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u6355\u6349\u5f53\u5730\u6001\u5ea6\u540c\u8d28\u5316\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0e\u56fe 2 \u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff1a\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u652f\u6301\u6216\u53cd\u5bf9\u4e0e\u6b27\u6d32\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6240\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u56fe 4 \u4e2d\u7684\u524d\u4e24\u5217\u57fa\u4e8e 2012 \u5e74\u548c 2015 \u5e74\u4e24\u8f6e\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86 2012 \u5e74\u548c 2015 \u5e74\u201c\u5355\u4e00\u6001\u5ea6\u201d\u5730\u533a\u7684\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u56fe 4 \u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e24\u5217\u5c06\u6807\u51c6 AVM \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u4e0e\u5177\u6709\u5730\u7406\u805a\u96c6\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4fee\u6539\u540e\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6807\u51c6 AVM \u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u4e8e\u5730\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e86 2012 \u5e74\u81f3 2015 \u5e74\u95f4\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5730\u533a\u5c42\u9762\u6001\u5ea6\u540c\u8d28\u5316\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe4. \u5730\u65b9\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u6001\u5ea6\u540c\u8d28\u5316\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5bf92012\u5e74\u548c2015\u5e74\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u7b54\uff08\u5de6\u4fa7\u4e24\u7ec4\u67f1\uff09\u548cAVM \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff08\u53f3\u4fa7\u4e24\u7ec4\u67f1\uff09\u3002\u524d\u540e\u4e24\u6392\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u6b27\u76df\u6216\u5f3a\u70c8\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u5730\u533a\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u867d\u7136\u56fe 4 \u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e86\u5730\u65b9\u540c\u8d28\u5316\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u6ca1\u6709\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u5173\u4e8e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u6587\u732e[40-43]\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u66f4\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u4e0e\u897f\u65b9\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u4e2d\u897f\u90e8\uff0c\u4e0e\u66f4\u4eb2\u4fc4\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5357\u90e8\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u6355\u6349\u8fd9\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5730\u7406\u68af\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd0\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u7ec4\u9759\u6001\u5206\u6570\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u505a\u4e86\u6240\u5728\u5730\u7684\u5730\u7406\u7cbe\u5ea6\u4e0e\u7ef4\u5ea6\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e0d\u540c\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5\u6355\u83b7\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5730\u7406\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u56fe5\u4e2d\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u4f4d\u4e8e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4e1c\u90e8\u3001\u4e2d\u90e8\u548c\u897f\u90e8\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u57282012\u5e74\u81f32015\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u6bcf\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6001\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe5. \u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u5730\u7406\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u6839\u636e2015\u5e74\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u4ee5\u53ca\u6765\u81ea\u4e09\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u7a7a\u95f4AVM\u3001\u6807\u51c6AVM\u548c\u7a7a\u95f4\u56de\u5f52\uff09\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u4f4d\u4e8e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u7b2c5\u300150\u548c95\u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u897f\u90e8\u3001\u4e2d\u90e8\u548c\u4e1c\u90e8\uff09\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u7684\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u7387\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u56fe5\u9876\u90e8\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u56fe1\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u5728\u897f\u90e8\u548c\u4e2d\u90e8\uff0c\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4ece2012\u5e74\u52302015\u5e74\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e1c\u90e8\uff0c\u8d8b\u52bf\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u8d1f\u9762\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u5e76\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5c06\u56fe5\u4e2d\u5176\u4ed6\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d1\u73b0\u503c\u5f97\u5f3a\u8c03\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5730\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u7684 AVM \u663e\u7136\u4f18\u4e8e\u6807\u51c6 AVM\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7a7a\u95f4 AVM \u4f3c\u4e4e\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0e\u7a7a\u95f4\u56de\u5f52\u4e00\u6837\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u6355\u83b7\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u7406\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4e1c\u90e8\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u5316\u65b9\u9762\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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7. \u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0e\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u5730\u7406\u5750\u6807\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u8861\u91cf\uff09<\/span>\u56e0\u4e3a\u5c11\u6570\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u51b2\u7a81\u66f4\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5bf9\u5317\u7ea6\u6210\u5458\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3001\u5bf9\u90bb\u56fd\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u671f\u8bb8\u3001\u5bb6\u5ead\u8bed\u8a00\/\u6bcd\u8bed\u95ee\u9898\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u6709\u5173\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u6001\u5ea6\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6001\u5ea6\u548c\u4e0e\u8eab\u4efd\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u672a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u683c\u5c40\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u89d2\u5ea6\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3001\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u672c\u5730\u540c\u8d28\u5316\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u5f3a\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u660e\u663e\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u95ee\u9898\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8ba8\u8bba\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\u76f8\u5de6\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u5c06\u66f4\u9ad8\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u4e14\u67d0\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u539f\u6709\u7684\u5747\u8861\u6001\u52bf\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u503e\u659c\u3002\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u6781\u5316\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u2014\u2014\u9ad8\u4e14\u6301\u7eed\u63d0\u9ad8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5b9a\u6001\u5ea6\u6216\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u5148\u524d\u5c31\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u5c06\u7279\u522b\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4e86\u89e3\u5730\u7406\u5206\u6b67\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u8361\u6216\u5371\u673a\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53d8\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5728\u6269\u5c55\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u4ece\u4f17\u503e\u5411\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u7a7a\u95f4\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u5f00\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u793e\u4f1a\u538b\u529b\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u89e3\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6fc0\u52b1\u63aa\u65bd\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6269\u5c55\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6709\u6548\u9014\u5f84\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6269\u5c55\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5916\u90e8\u4fe1\u606f\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6240\u5c55\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4fb5\u7565\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u51b2\u51fb\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u88ab\u540c\u8d28\u5316<\/span>\uff08\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u53d7\u5230\u4e00\u6b65\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5730\u7406\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861[44]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5747\u8861\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u8ddd\u79bb\u897f\u6b27\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u8fdc\u8fd1\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e2013\/2014\u4eb2\u6b27\u76df\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdc\u8fd1\u6709\u5173[24]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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