{"id":35204,"date":"2022-06-15T20:29:42","date_gmt":"2022-06-15T12:29:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=35204"},"modified":"2022-06-15T20:29:42","modified_gmt":"2022-06-15T12:29:42","slug":"%e6%9c%ba%e5%99%a8%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%ef%bc%9a%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e5%a2%9e%e5%8a%a0%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e6%ad%a6%e8%a3%85%e5%86%b2%e7%aa%81%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=35204","title":{"rendered":"\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u589e\u52a0\u5168\u7403\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data<\/span><\/p>\n

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https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-022-30356-x#code-availability<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u56fe1.  2020\u5e74\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u66b4\u529b\u4e8b\u4ef6 | \u6765\u6e90\uff1aThe Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u56fe2. \u4e24\u4e2a\u8861\u91cf\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u9891\u7387\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4f5c\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u5019\u9009\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf<\/strong>\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u7c7b\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u504f\u5dee\u76f8\u5173\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u73af\u5883\u4e24\u5927\u7c7b\u3002\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u504f\u5dee\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u56e0\u7d20<\/strong>\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u6e29\u5ea6\u6307\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u4e00\u5e74\u6216\u4e24\u5e74\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u964d\u6c34\u6307\u6570<\/span>\uff08\u4e00\u5e74\u6216\u4e24\u5e74\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u56e0\u7d20<\/strong>\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u3001\u9ad8\u7a0b\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u70ed\u70b9\u3001\u6c11\u65cf\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u53ef\u8fbe\u6027\u3001\u591c\u95f4\u706f\u5149\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u7684\u690d\u88ab\u5dee\u5f02\u6307\u6570\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u6837\u672c\u4e0a\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u68af\u5ea6\u63d0\u5347\u56de\u5f52\u6811<\/span>\uff08BRT\uff09<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u7684\u6837\u672c\u4e0a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u56fe3\u663e\u793a\u4e86 BRT \u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7b56\u7565 a \u548c a+<\/span>\uff08\u52a0\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\uff09<\/span>\u4e0b\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u4e0e\u7b56\u7565 a \u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u7b56\u7565 a+ \u8003\u8651\u4e86 24 \u4e2a\u6708<\/span>\uff08\u4e24\u5e74\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u504f\u5dee\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684 ROC-AUC<\/span>\uff080.939\uff09<\/span> \u503c\u3002\u65f6\u95f4\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7ed3\u679c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u9ad8\u7ef4\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe3.  \u63d0\u5347\u56de\u5f52\u6811\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6027\u80fd\u3002\uff08a\uff0cb\uff09\u5728\u7b56\u7565 a\uff08\u56fe3a\uff09\u548c a+\uff08\u56fe3b\uff09\u4e0b\u5bf9\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u751f\u7387\u6837\u672c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u63d0\u5347\u56de\u5f52\u6811\uff08BRT\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u3002\uff08c\uff09\u7b56\u7565a\uff08\u7a33\u5b9a\u80cc\u666f\u73af\u5883\u4e0e\u4e00\u5e74\u6c14\u5019\u504f\u5dee\u76f8\u5173\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u914d\u5bf9\uff09\u548ca+\uff08\u4e0ea\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u7528\u4e86\u4e24\u5e74\u6c14\u5019\u504f\u5dee\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u5f02\u5e38\u6709\u5173\uff0c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5730\u7406\u73af\u5883\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5927<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n


<\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5171\u732e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u5177\u6709\u590d\u6742\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u624d\u662f\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u504f\u5dee\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u534f\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u6e29\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u964d\u6c34\u6307\u6570\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u5f02\u5e38\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5730\u7406\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5927<\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u80cc\u666f\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u6781\u5927\u5730\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u76f8\u5bf9\u8d21\u732e\u7387\u8d85\u8fc796.0%\u3002\u4e0e\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u6e29\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u6216\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u964d\u6c34\u6307\u6570\u5bf9\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u5360\u6a21\u62df\u7ed3\u679c\u76842.5%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u8fd8\u4f7f\u7528\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e862000\u5e74\u30012005\u5e74\u30012010\u5e74\u548c2015\u5e74\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u751f\u7387\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u6982\u7387\u3002\u56fe3\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u6a21\u62df\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u751f\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u5730\u533a\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u548c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6d32\u3001\u5357\u7f8e\u6d32\u897f\u5317\u90e8\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u548c\u4e9a\u6d32\u51e0\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u98ce\u9669\u6709\u5411\u975e\u6d32\u4e1c\u90e8\u3001\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u5357\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe4.  2000\u5e74\u30012005\u5e74\u30012010\u5e74\u548c2015\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u6a21\u62df\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u53d1\u751f\u98ce\u9669\u56fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

4. \u6c14\u5019\u5f02\u5e38\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

 <\/span>
<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c06\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0e\u9ad8\u9891\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u65b9\u9762\u5177\u6709\u5de8\u5927\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c14\u8c61\u3001\u5730\u7406\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u80cc\u666f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4eba\u7c7b\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u9002\u5e94\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u793e\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u53cd\u5e94<\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u79cd\u65cf\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u76f8\u5173\u79cd\u65cf\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u53ef\u8fbe\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u4ea4\u901a\u67a2\u7ebd\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6210\u4e3a\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u9886\u571f\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u7269\u6d41\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6280\u672f\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4ecd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u51fa\u7279\u5b9a\u533a\u57df<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u5b83\u4eec\u5730\u5904\u504f\u8fdc\u4e14\u4f9d\u8d56\u519c\u4e1a\u65f6\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u7fa4\u4f53<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u5b83\u4eec\u8d2b\u7a77\u4e14\u88ab\u653f\u6cbb\u6392\u65a5\u65f6\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u901a\u8fc7\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u8fd8\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5462<\/strong>\uff1f\u603b\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u56de\u5f52\u6811\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u7cbe\u7ec6\u5206\u6790\u5e2e\u52a9\u6a21\u578b\u6355\u6349\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4f46\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u4ec5\u662f\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5185\u5728\u8054\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u5373\u4ecd\u505c\u7559\u5728\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u800c\u65e0\u6cd5\u771f\u6b63\u56de\u7b54\u662f\u5426\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8<\/span>\uff08\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f5c\u8005\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e UCDP \u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u6b66\u88c5\u51b2\u7a81\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7eb3\u5165\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u504f\u89c1\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u589e\u52a0\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6587\u5316\u548c\u5386\u53f2\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u6709\u5173\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4fc4\u4e4c\u51b2\u7a81\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5bf9\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u91cf\u5316\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u901a\u7528\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u6846\u67b6\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u51b2\u7a81\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
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\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u65b0\u4e00\u5b63\u3010\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u3011\u7531\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7f57\u5bb6\u5fb7\u6559\u6388\u9886\u8854\uff0c\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u5339\u5179\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u591a\u4f4d\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u8054\u5408\u53d1\u8d77\uff0c\u81ea2022\u5e746\u670818\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6301\u7eed10-12\u5468\u3002\u672c\u5b63\u8bfb\u4e66\u5c06\u805a\u7126\u8ba8\u8bbaGraph\u3001Embedding\u3001NLP\u3001Modeling\u3001Data collection\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u8ba8\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3001\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7814\u7a76\u7b49\u8bfe\u9898\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u8be6\u60c5\u53ca\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5f0f\u89c1\u6587\u672b\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u4ece\u4e8b\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u5bf9\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a<\/span>
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\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n