{"id":35821,"date":"2022-07-13T22:23:13","date_gmt":"2022-07-13T14:23:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=35821"},"modified":"2022-07-13T22:23:13","modified_gmt":"2022-07-13T14:23:13","slug":"%e6%95%b0%e5%ad%97%e8%b4%a7%e5%b8%81%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e5%bf%ab%e9%80%9f%e6%9b%b4%e8%bf%ad%ef%bc%9f%e7%94%9f%e6%80%81%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e7%90%86%e8%ae%ba%e4%ba%89%e7%9b%b8%e8%a7%a3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=35821","title":{"rendered":"\u6570\u5b57\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f55\u5feb\u901f\u66f4\u8fed\uff1f\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u4e89\u76f8\u89e3\u7b54"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u81ea2008\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u6570\u5b57\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u63a8\u51fa\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u5e02\u503c\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u91cf\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u60ca\u4eba\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6210\u529f\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u5c06\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u30022022\u5e744\u6708\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e Royal Society Open Science <\/em>\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5728\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5efa\u7acb\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u5b8f\u89c2\u751f\u6001\u7406\u8bba\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u9610\u660e\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7fa4\u843d\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u8003\u5bdf\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u5c06\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u65b0\u89c1\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u6b63\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/a>\uff0c\u7531\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u674e\u7ea2\u521a\u3001\u738b\u6709\u8d35\u3001\u5f20\u6c5f\u3001\u9648\u6e05\u534e\u8001\u5e08\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u5c71\u5927\u5b66\u8881\u5148\u667a\u8001\u5e08\u8054\u5408\u53d1\u8d77\u3002\u4ece7\u670811\u65e5\u8d77\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u4e00\u665a\u4e3e\u529e\u7814\u8ba8\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6301\u7eed 10-12 \u5468\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u56f4\u7ed5\u590d\u6742\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u5185\u6db5\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u666e\u9002\u89c4\u5f8b\u3001\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u666f\u56db\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba1\u5212\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e09\u6b21\u5706\u684c\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0e\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u5b66\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u62a5\u540d\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u8be6\u60c5\u89c1\u6587\u672b\u3002<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


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Edgardo Brigatti, Estevan Augusto Amazonas Mendes<\/span> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u590f\u946b\u96e8<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u6881\u91d1<\/span> <\/span>| \u5ba1\u6821<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/p>\n


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\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>Testing macroecological theories in cryptocurrency market: neutral models cannot describe diversity patterns and their variation<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsos.212005<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u6211\u4eec\u501f\u7528\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u6982\u5ff5\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5206\u6790\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u501f\u52a9\u4e0e\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7c7b\u6bd4\u786e\u5b9a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ca\u5176\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u63cf\u8ff0\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u975e\u751f\u7269\u7cfb\u7edf\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u65b9\u9762\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u7fa4\u843d\u7ed3\u6784\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f3a\u70c8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0e\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u65f6\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u589e\u52a0\u7fa4\u843d\u6784\u6210\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5f88\u5f31\u3002\u5bf9\u79cd\u5185\u548c\u79cd\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u7684\u5206\u6790\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u660e\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d7\u4e92\u5229\u5171\u751f\u5173\u7cfb\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u90e8\u95e8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u5f31\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5bf9\u79f0\u7269\u79cd\u5047\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u81ea2008\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e2d\u672c\u806a<\/span>\uff08Satoshi Nakamoto\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7b14\u540d\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u63a8\u51fa\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u70b9\u5bf9\u70b9\u6570\u5b57\u8d27\u5e01\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01[1]\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u5e02\u503c\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u60ca\u4eba\u589e\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6210\u529f\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5174\u8da3\uff0c \u4ed6\u4eec\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b57\u8d27\u5e01\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u6267\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u529f\u80fd<\/span>\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u5a92\u4ecb\u3001\u8bb0\u8d26\u5355\u4f4d\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u8d2e\u85cf\uff09<\/span>[2]\uff0c\u5e76\u62c5\u5fc3\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u8d27\u5e01\u6216\u653f\u5e9c\u5f53\u5c40\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e24\u79cd\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7406\u8bba\u56f4\u7ed5\u5851\u9020\u751f\u6001\u7fa4\u843d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u673a\u5236\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u3002\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Niche theory\uff09<\/span>[15\uff0c16]\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u7fa4\u843d\u7684\u6700\u76f8\u5173\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u7531\u4e2a\u4f53\u3001\u7269\u79cd\u548c\u73af\u5883\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u7406\u8bba<\/strong><\/span>\uff08neutral theory\uff09<\/span>[17\uff0c18]\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u79cd\u7fa4\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6f02\u79fb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u5176\u66f4\u6210\u529f\u7684\u8fd0\u7528\u4e2d\uff0c\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u5efa\u6a21\u4e86\u4eba\u5747<\/span>\uff08per capita\uff09<\/span>\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u3001\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3001\u8fc1\u79fb\u7387\u548c\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u7387\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7fa4\u843d\u6709\u673a\u4f53[17]\u3002\u7269\u79cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7269\u79cd\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u79cd\u7fa4\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u548c\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u4e0a\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u610f\u5473\u7740\u529f\u80fd\u7b49\u6548\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u8425\u517b\u7ea7\u4e0a\uff0c\u7269\u79cd\u7531\u76f8\u540c\u901f\u7387\u7684\u7ef4\u6301\u751f\u547d\u6240\u5fc5\u9700\u4e8b\u4ef6\u523b\u753b\u3002\u4ece\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5bf9\u79f0\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u7fa4\u843d\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4e0d\u53d7\u4e2a\u4f53\u7269\u79cd\u6807\u7b7e\u4e92\u6362\u7684\u5f71\u54cd[19]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u53ea\u8003\u8651\u975e\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span>\uff08non-spatial neutral model\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4e2a\u4f53\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7269\u79cd\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u63cf\u8ff0\u79cd\u7fa4\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u4f30\u8ba1\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u975e\u5e38\u4e00\u822c\u7684Markovian\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u901a\u8fc7\u4e3b\u65b9\u7a0b[18]\u6216Langevin\u65b9\u7a0b[20]\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u7a33\u6001\u4e0b\u751f\u6210\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u96c6\u4e2d\u5173\u6ce8\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u63a5\u8fd1\u7a33\u6001\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. \u6570\u636e<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u7f51\u7ad9 Coin Market Cap [22]\u6536\u96c6\u4e86\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8be5\u7f51\u7ad9\u4ece\u4ea4\u6613\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u53f0\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u4e86\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8868\u793a\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u524d24\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u3002\u5e02\u503c<\/strong><\/span>\uff08Market capitalization\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u6d41\u901a\u4e2d\u4f9b\u7ed9\u91cf\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e58\u79ef\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4f11\u7720\u6216\u9500\u6bc1\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u7f51\u7ad9\u5217\u8868\u4e2d\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u7a0d\u540e\u91cd\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u5468\u62a5\u544a\u4e4b\u524d6\u5c0f\u65f6\u5185\u672a\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e147\u5929\u5185\u4e0d\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u5217\u8868\u4e2d\u3002\u51fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u5165\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7f3a\u53e3\u4e24\u7aef\u53ef\u7528\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u6765\u586b\u8865\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7a7a\u767d\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u7ea0\u6b63\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u540d\u79f0\u6216\u7b26\u53f7\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u6216\u62fc\u5199\u9519\u8bef\u6765\u6e05\u9664\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u4e862013\u5e744\u670828\u65e5\u81f32020\u5e742\u67082\u65e5\u7684\u6bcf\u5468\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217 354 \u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u957f\u3002\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u603b\u5171\u5305\u542b3588\u79cd\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u4e3a\u4e86\u6784\u5efa\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bcf\u79cd\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u90fd\u4ee3\u8868\u4e00\u4e2a\u7269\u79cd\uff0c\u5176\u5e02\u503c\u662f\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6<\/strong>\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u79cd\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8f\u89c2\u751f\u6001\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03<\/strong><\/span>\uff08species abundance distribution\uff0cSAD\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u8868\u5f81\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u9759\u6001\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u6b64\u5206\u5e03\u8868\u793a\u7269\u79cd\u5448\u73b0\u7ed9\u5b9a\u79cd\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002Volkov\u7b49\u4eba\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u4e2d\u6027\u751f\u6001\u7fa4\u843d\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5728\u7a33\u6001\u4e0b\uff0cSAD\u9075\u5faa\u5c40\u90e8\u7fa4\u843d\u7684\u89e3\u6790\u96f6\u548c\u591a\u9879\u5f0f\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08zero-sum multinomial distribution\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5143\u7fa4\u843d\uff0c\u9075\u5faa\u8457\u540d\u7684Fisher\u5206\u5e03[18\uff0c23]\uff0c\u6b63\u5982Hubbell\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u7ecf\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u90a3\u6837[17]\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u975e\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u672f\u8bed\u5143\u7fa4\u843d\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ca1\u6709\u8fc1\u79fb\u7684\u5355\u4e2a\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u5927\u7fa4\u843d\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c40\u90e8\u7fa4\u843d\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u7531\u6c38\u4e45\u7269\u79cd\u6765\u6e90<\/span>\uff08\u5143\u7fa4\u843d\uff09<\/span>\u8fc1\u79fb\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5fc5\u987b\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4ece\u5143\u7fa4\u843d\u6536\u96c6\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u57fa\u4e8e Volkov \u7b49\u4eba\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u7528Fisher\u5206\u5e03\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\uff1ap(x) \u221de-cx<\/sup>\/x [24]\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\uff1a<\/span><\/sub><\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9009\u62e9\u53d8\u91cflog(x)\uff0c\u5219\u7b49\u6548\u4e8e\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u6709\u7740\u60a0\u4e45\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u4f20\u7edf[25]\uff0c\u5b83\u662fSAD\u7684\u5408\u7406\u548c\u7b80\u6d01\u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe[26]\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406[27]\u7684\u7eaf\u7edf\u8ba1\u975e\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u79cd\u7fa4\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7269\u79cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u6216\u79cd\u7fa4\u7edf\u8ba1\u5dee\u5f02\u4ea7\u751f[28]\u3002\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7528Fisher\u5206\u5e03\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0SAD\u5c06\u652f\u6301\u4e2d\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u8868\u660e\u5b58\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u79cd\u7fa4\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6216\u7eaf\u7edf\u8ba1\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u5b8f\u89c2\u751f\u6001\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u7269\u79cd\u79cd\u7fa4\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong><\/span>\uff08species population relation\uff0cSPR\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5b83\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cfN\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4f53\u603b\u6570x\u7684\u7f29\u653e\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08scaling\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5f53\u603b\u79cd\u7fa4x\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7269\u79cd\u9075\u5faaFisher\u5206\u5e03\u65f6\uff0c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u79cd\u7fa4x\u7684\u9884\u671f\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u7531\u4e0b\u5f0f\u7ed9\u51fa\uff1aN(x)=\u03b1log(1+(x\/\u03b1)) [24]\u3002\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u901a\u5e38\u6d4b\u91cf\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cf\u4e0e\u91c7\u6837\u533a\u57df\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5047\u8bbex\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7ebf\u6027\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5730\u83b7\u5f97\u3002\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u8868\u5f81\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u663e\u793a\u5e42\u5f8b\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u6307\u6570\u8868\u793a0\u548c1\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5178\u578b\u503c[29]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u9759\u6001\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u751f\u6001\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u4e2d\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ee5\u7269\u79cd\u3001\u4e30\u5ea6\u548c\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u72b6\u6001\u4e3a\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7a33\u6001\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\u3002\u51fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5e76\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u6709\u5173\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e0d\u540c\u7269\u79cd\u5728\u6f14\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7fa4\u843d\uff0c\u5176\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u975e\u5e73\u51e1<\/span>\uff08non-trivial\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u65b0\u7269\u79cd\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d6\u4ee3\u65e7\u7269\u79cd\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u9519\u7efc\u590d\u6742\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6e\u6362\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u7528\u7269\u79cd\u66f4\u66ff\u5206\u5e03<\/strong><\/span>\uff08species turnover distribution\uff0cSTD\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u8868\u5f81\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\uff1a\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694t\u5206\u5f00\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u79cd\u7fa4\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0cx(t)\/x(0)\uff0c\u7b49\u4e8e\u03bb\u3002\u5728\u7a33\u6001\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0cAzaele\u7b49\u4eba[20]\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4bSTD\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u6846\u67b6\u5185\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u6b64\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u89e3\u6790\u8868\u8fbe\u5f0f<\/span><\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n

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\u5176\u4e2dA\u548cB\u662f\u53c2\u6570\uff0cC\u662f\u91cd\u6574\u5316\u5e38\u6570\uff0c\u7b49\u4e8e <\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u7fa4\u843d\u6784\u6210\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u8fde\u8d2f\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u5982\u4f55\u53d8\u5316\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u3002\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u4e2d\u5df2\u4f7f\u7528\u5404\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u6d4b\u91cf\u6765\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7fa4\u843d\u6784\u6210\u7684\u4fee\u9970[30\uff0c31]\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u800c\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5b83\u5bf9\u5176\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u89e3\u91ca[32]\u3002\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7269\u79cdi\u7684\u5e02\u503cCi<\/sub>(t) \uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651<\/span><\/sub><\/span> <\/span>\uff08\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d0\u5bf9\u6570\u800c\u6dfb\u52a01\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dt\u662f\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u6708\u4efd\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7c97\u7565\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u91cf\uff0c\u5bf9\u6570\u53d8\u6362\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u81ea\u7136\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u662f\u4f30\u8ba1\u5bf9\u6570\u53d8\u6362\u6570\u636e\u7684\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff1a<\/span><\/sub><\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u662f\u5728\u6307\u6807i\u4e0a\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684[32\uff0c33]\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u652f\u6301\u663e\u8457\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\uff1a0\u8868\u793a\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u662f\u663e\u8457\u6027\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdfrS<\/sub>\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8870\u51cf\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u5f62\u5f0f\u6765\u8868\u5f81\u7fa4\u843d\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u6f14\u5316\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5b83\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4ece\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u5173\u7ed3\u6784\u5230\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u7fa4\u843d\u6784\u6210\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e[20\uff0c34]\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u751f\u6210\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7531\u968f\u673a\u79bb\u6563\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u7ec4\u6784\u6210\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cf\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u751f\u6001\u7fa4\u843d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7fa4\u843d\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u603b\u6570\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e3aN\u3002\u5728\u5927\u603b\u4f53\u6570\u6781\u9650\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u653e\u5bbd\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ea6\u675f\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c[34]\u3002\u5982\u679c<\/span><\/sub><\/span>\u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4t\u65f6\u7b2ci\u4e2a\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u5219\u5176\u6f14\u5316\u9075\u5faa\u6b64\u7b49\u5f0f<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u53c2\u6570b\u63a7\u5236\u706d\u7edd\u9608\u503c\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u79cd\u7fa4\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fc1\u5f99\u3001\u706d\u7edd\u548c\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u03c1\u548c\u03c3\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u4eba\u5747\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2d\u6027\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u03c1\u548c\u03c3\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u4e2a\u4f53\u90fd\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u03b7\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u9ad8\u65af\u566a\u58f0\u9879\uff0c\u5747\u503c\u548c\u5355\u4f4d\u65b9\u5dee\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u53d6\u8fde\u7eed\u6781\u9650\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u79bb\u6563\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7 Langevin \u548c\u76f8\u5173\u7684 Fokker-Plank \u65b9\u7a0b\u6765\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3002\u5176\u89e3\u6790\u89e3\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5927N\u6781\u9650\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f3d\u739b\u5206\u5e03\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u5e03\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u5404\u79cd\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u63a5\u8fd1 2b\/\u03c32<\/sup><<1 \u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684 Fisher \u5206\u5e03 [20\uff0c34]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0eVolkov\u7b49\u4eba\u4e3a\u51fa\u751f\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7cfb\u6570\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u9009\u62e9\u800c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u7ed3\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765[18]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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4. \u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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4.1. \u4e00\u822c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u5728\u7ed9\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u6536\u96c6\u6d3b\u8dc3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\uff08N(t)\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u706d\u7edd\u7387<\/span>\uff08\u56fe1\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u4e3a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u5468\u5185\u8fdb\u5165<\/span>\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\uff0c\u79bb\u5f00\uff09<\/span>\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u5bf9\u5f53\u65f6\u6d3b\u8dc3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u6d3b\u8dc3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u706d\u7edd\u7387\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u6027\u5730\u533a\u5206\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
    \n
  • \n
    \u57282014\u5e746\u67081\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6570\u91cf\u8f90\u5c04<\/span>\uff08mass radiation\uff09<\/span>\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5176\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u4e8e\u7531\u975e\u5e38\u591a\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u60ca\u4eba\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5f88\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    \u57282014\u5e7411\u67082\u65e5\u81f32017\u5e744\u670830\u65e5\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a81\u51fa\u663e\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u7a33\u9636\u6bb5<\/span>\uff08stationary\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u6bd4\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u706d\u7edd\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    \u4ece2017\u5e745\u67087\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6b63\u5411\u8d8b\u52bf<\/span>\uff08positive trend\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u65b0\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u4ee5\u6e10\u8fdb\u548c\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u7565\u6709\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u7387\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u706d\u7edd\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u706d\u7edd\u7387\u5728\u5178\u578b\u503c\u9644\u8fd1\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7a00\u6709\u548c\u7a81\u7136\u7684\u706d\u7edd\u7206\u53d1\u3002\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u5bf9\uff0c\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u7387\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u6240\u8003\u8651\u7684\u4e09\u79cd\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe1.\uff08a\uff09\u6d3b\u8dc3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\uff08i\uff09\uff0c\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u5468\u5185\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u706d\u7edd\u7387\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u56db\u5468\u7684\u6eda\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff08ii\uff09\u3002\u865a\u7ebf\u5782\u76f4\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u9759\u6b62\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff082014\u5e7411\u67082\u65e5\uff09\u53ca\u5176\u7ed3\u675f\uff082017\u5e744\u670830\u65e5\uff09\u3002\uff08b\uff09\u5e02\u503c\u7684\u56db\u5468\u6eda\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/section>\n
    \u603b\u5e02\u503c C(t) \u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6b63\u5411\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u5728\u6d3b\u8dc3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u91cf\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u68c0\u6d4b\u5230\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u533a\u95f4\uff1b\u5728\u65b0\u8d27\u5e01\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u8981\u8f90\u5c04\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u5177\u6709\u8d85\u6307\u6570\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    4.2. \u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u56fe2\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u8003\u8651\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08SAD\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6c47\u603b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u5e73\u7a33\u548c\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u5468\u671f\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u79cd\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u91cf\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d<\/span>\uff08market share\uff0cMS\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u514b\u670d\u5e02\u503c\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u8f83\u77ed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u53ef\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u751a\u81f3\u4e00\u5468\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\u6027\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5173\u6ce8\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6d3b\u8dc3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u89c6\u4e3a\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u5728\u5e73\u7a33\u6027\u4e0b\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u5ba1\u67e5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u7ecf\u5e38\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7a00\u6709\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u91c7\u6837\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u8003\u8651\u4ec5\u62df\u5408\u5305\u542b\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7269\u79cd\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u83b7\u53d6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u91c7\u6837\u7684\u7fa4\u843d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5206\u5e03\u5de6\u5c3e\u5f62\u72b6\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u770b\u770b\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u5f62\u72b6\uff0c\u5b83\u603b\u662f\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u575a\u5b9a\u5730\u629b\u5f03Fisher\u5206\u5e03\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cFisher\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u5355\u8c03\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5448\u73b0\u5185\u90e8\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u6267\u884c\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u62df\u5408\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528Kolmogorov-Smirnov\u68c0\u9a8c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u62df\u5408\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u89c2\u6d4b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u62d2\u7edd\u6570\u636e\u6765\u81ea\u62df\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3ap\u503c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u8003\u8651\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u90fd\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8<\/span>\uff08\u56fe2\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe2. \u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u91c7\u6837\u3002\u4e0a\u56fe\uff1a\u5728\u6570\u91cf\u8f90\u5c04\u671f\u3001\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\u548c\u6b63\u8d8b\u52bf\u671f\u91c7\u6837\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8868\u793a652\u30011291\u548c2825\u4e2a\u5143\u7d20\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0cKolmogorov\u2013Smirnov \u68c0\u9a8c\u7684 p \u503c\u4e3a 0.584\u30010.626\u30010.245\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a\u4ece2011\u5e7411\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca1\u5e74\u91c7\u6837\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5448\u73b0840\u3001866\u548c1170\u4e2a\u5143\u7d20\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0cKolmogorov-Smirnov \u68c0\u9a8c\u7684 p \u503c\u4e3a 0.996\u30010.715\u30010.253\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/section>\n
    4.3. \u7269\u79cd\u79cd\u7fa4\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
    \u4e3a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u7269\u79cd\u79cd\u7fa4\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08SPR\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\uff0c\u5e76\u626b\u63cf\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u7684\u76f8\u5e94\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u86511\u523010\u5468\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u95f4\u9694\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u6d4b\u91cf\u5e02\u503c\u548c\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u56fe3\u4e2d\u7ed8\u5236\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e00\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u503c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u5173\u7cfb \u03b1log(1+(x\/\u03b1)) \u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u62df\u5408\u4e0e\u5e42\u5f8b\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002N \u5bf9 C \u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u975e\u5e38\u5f31\uff0c\u5bf9\u6570\u6216\u5e42\u5f8b\u51fd\u6570\u662f\u5426\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u6570\u636e\u70b9\uff0c\u5219\u65e0\u6cd5\u80af\u5b9a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe3. \u5e02\u503c\u4e0e\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u7ebf\u6027\u56fe\u3002\u7ea2\u7ebf\u662f\u6839\u636e\u5173\u7cfb\u5f0f \u03b1log(1 + (x\/\u03b1)) \u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u62df\u5408\uff0c\u84dd\u7ebf\u662f\u6839\u636e\u5e42\u5f8b\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u62df\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/section>\n
    4.4. \u7fa4\u843d\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u6f14\u5316<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u7269\u79cd\u66f4\u66ff\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08STD\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651 x(0\uff09\u4f4d\u4e8e\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u3002STD\u4e0e\u65b9\u7a0b<\/span>\uff083.1\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u89e3\u6790\u8868\u8fbe\u5f0f\u7684\u62df\u5408\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u56fe4\u6240\u793a\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8et\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u503c\uff0c\u62df\u5408\u4ee4\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u503c\uff0c\u62df\u5408\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5206\u5e03\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5fae\u5c0f\u4f46\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u5448\u73b0\u5de6\u5c3e\u548c\u53f3\u5c3e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d1f\u03bb\u503c\u7684\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u51cf\u5c11\u7684\u79cd\u7fa4\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u3002\u4eceSTD\u62df\u5408\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u4ea7\u751f\u7531\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b[20\uff0c34]\u751f\u6210\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08SAD\uff09<\/span>\u3002B\u7684\u62df\u5408\u503c<\/span>\uff080.48 \u2264 B \u22640.71\uff09<\/span>\u5bfc\u81f4SAD\u5448\u73b0\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u4e0e\u63cf\u8ff0\u6ca1\u6709\u8fc1\u79fb\u7684\u5355\u4e2a\u7fa4\u843d\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5f62\u72b6\u76f8\u53bb\u751a\u8fdc\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe4. \u8003\u8651\u5230\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u7269\u79cd\u66f4\u66ff\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u56fa\u5b9a t=1\uff0c2\uff0c4\uff0c8\uff0c16\uff0c32 \u5468\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u53d8\u91cf r=log(\u03bb) \u5e76\u7ed8\u5236\u5206\u5e03 P\u2032(r) =PSTD<\/sub>(er<\/sup>, t)\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d PSTD<\/sub>(er<\/sup>, t) \u7531\u7b49\u5f0f\uff083.1\uff09\u7ed9\u51fa\u3002\u6700\u4f18\u62df\u5408\u7531\u865a\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/section>\n
    \u56fe5\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u521d\u59cb\u7fa4\u843d\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6570\u4e30\u5ea6\u4e0e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6307\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u4e30\u5ea6\u7684\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\u793a\u4f8b\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56fe\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u68c0\u67e5\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u57281\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u6570\u636e\u6267\u884c\u6b64\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5728\u6570\u91cf\u8f90\u5c04\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u6307\u6570\u578b\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5f53\u7fa4\u843d\u8fdb\u5165\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\u65f6\uff0crS<\/sub> \u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u9075\u5faa\u660e\u663e\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6b64\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e00\u76f4\u4fdd\u6301\u5230\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u7ebf\u6027\u62df\u5408\u7684\u659c\u7387\u503c\uff08a\uff09\u6cbf\u8003\u8651\u7684\u5e74\u6570\u51cf\u5c0f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u659c\u7387\u503c\u662f\u91cf\u5316\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u5bb6\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u03b2\u591a\u6837\u6027[31]\u7684\u6709\u8da3\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5b83\u8868\u5f81\u4e86\u5355\u4e2a\u7fa4\u843d\u7ec4\u6210\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002a \u503c\u8d8a\u8d1f\u8868\u793a\u7fa4\u843d\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u53d8\u5316\u8d8a\u5f3a\u70c8\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u03b2\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5355\u4e00\u7fa4\u843d\u7269\u79cd\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u03b1\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u03b2\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u7279\u522b\u6709\u610f\u601d\u3002\u5728\u56fe6\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u968f\u7740\u03b1\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u03b2\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u603b\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u03b1\u591a\u6837\u6027\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u6240\u8003\u8651\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u8ba1\u6570\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe5. \uff08a\uff09 \u521d\u59cb\u7fa4\u843d\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6570\u4e30\u5ea6\u4e0e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u4e30\u5ea6\uff08\u4ee5\u6708\u4e3a\u5355\u4f4d\uff09\u7684\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\u3002\u663e\u793a\u4ece 2015 \u5e74 4 \u6708 28 \u65e5\u5230 2016 \u5e74 4 \u6708 28 \u65e5\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u7a00\u6709\u6216\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u51fa\u73b0\u5728x\u8f74\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u7a00\u6709\u6216\u706d\u7edd\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u51fa\u73b0\u5728y\u8f74\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6d88\u5931\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u989c\u8272\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u3002\uff08b\uff09 \u7fa4\u843d\u7ed3\u6784\u6307\u6570 rS<\/sub> \u57281\u5e74\u5185\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u3002\u6570\u636e\u4ece2013\u5e744\u670828\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u8fde\u7eed\u9ed1\u7ebf\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u51fd\u6570\uff1b\u7ea2\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u6307\u6570\u62df\u5408\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8868\u793a\u6b63\u503c\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fbe\u5230\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7269\u79cd\u56f4\u7ed5x\u8f74\u548cy\u8f74\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe6. \uff08a\uff09 2015 \u5e74\u81f3 2019 \u5e74\u56fe 5 \u4e2d\u8003\u8651\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u533a\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u6700\u4f18\u62df\u5408\u7ebf\u6027\u51fd\u6570\uff08a\uff09\u4e0e\u6d3b\u8dc3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u91cf\uff08\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\uff09\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u659c\u7387\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cf\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u03b2\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff08\u7269\u79cd\u66f4\u66ff\uff0c\u5373\u7269\u79cd\u6784\u6210\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u91cf\u662f\u03b1\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u3002\uff08b\uff09\u7279\u5b9a\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u4e0e\u5e73\u5747\u5e02\u503c\u7684\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\u3002\u8bc4\u4f30\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u4ece\u9759\u6b62\u5468\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u5230\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u95f4\u9694\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/section>\n
    \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7269\u79cd\u79cd\u7fa4\u7684\u4e30\u5ea6\u4e0e\u5176\u5bff\u547d\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u4e30\u5ea6\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u5728\u5176\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002\u5bff\u547d\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6d4b\u91cf\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5728\u6240\u6709\u8003\u8651\u7684\u51e0\u5468\u5185\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u5468\u6570\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u7387\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u67e5\u770b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u6563\u70b9\u56fe<\/span>\uff08\u56fe6\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u5e02\u503c\u5c0f\u4e8e104<\/sup>\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5bff\u547d\u7f29\u77ed\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u7387\u51e0\u4e4e\u8fbe\u4e0d\u5230 0.5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u611f\u77e5\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u91cf\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u76f8\u5f53\u5f31\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u9759\u6b62\u671f\u663e\u793a\u7684r<\/span>S<\/sub>\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u7b49\u5f0f\uff083.2\uff09\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u603b\u7ed3\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6a21\u62df\u8fd0\u884c\u4e86\u51e0\u4ee3\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u8fbe\u5230rS<\/sub>\u503c\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u6240\u9009\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u6765\u56fa\u5b9a\u7269\u79cd\u6570\u91cfs\uff0c\u5e76\u9009\u62e9\u6bd4\u7387 2b\/\u03c32<\/sup> \u5728\u8db3\u591f\u5c0f\u7684\u503c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u51c6Fisher\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u56fa\u5b9ab=1\u548c\u6539\u53d8\u03c3\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u6b64\u76ee\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u6211\u4eec\u6536\u96c6\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5e76\u8003\u8651\u706d\u7edd\/\u7269\u79cd\u5f62\u6210\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u5f53\u9879 <\/sub>\u53d6\u96f6\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u5c06\u8ba1\u5165\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u5de5\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230 rS<\/sub> \u503c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9 N, \u03c1 \u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u503c\u548c<\/sub>\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6b64\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u4ec5\u751f\u6210\u6307\u6570\u8870\u51cf\u3002\u56fe7\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u7279\u5b9a\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u5178\u578b\u793a\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe7. \u5178\u578b\u7684 rS<\/sub> \u4ece\u4e2d\u6027\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b\uff083.2\uff09\u751f\u6210\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u8870\u51cf\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u53c2\u6570\u4e3a\uff1aN = 107<\/sup>\uff0c \u03c1 = 3.5 \uff0c<\/sub>\uff0cb = 1\uff0c s = 1500\uff1b\u03c4 \u4ee5\u6a21\u62df\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\u793a\u3002\u8fde\u7eed\u9ed1\u7ebf\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u62df\u5408\uff0c\u7ea2\u7ebf\u662f\u6307\u6570\u62df\u5408\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/section>\n
    4.5. \u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n
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    <\/section>\n
    <\/section>\n

    \u56fe8. \u4e0a\u56fe\uff1a\u6240\u6709\u8003\u8651\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff08\u5de6\u56fe\uff09\u548c\u524d25\u79cd\uff08\u53f3\u56fe\uff09\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u77e9\u9635\u56fe\u3002\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4ece\u6700\u5c0f\u5230\u6700\u5927\u5e02\u503c\u586b\u5145\u77e9\u9635\uff08\u8003\u8651\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u662f\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\u7684\u603b\u5e02\u503c\uff09\u3002\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u9ad8\u5e02\u503c\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\uff08\u7531\u7ea2\u8272\u65b9\u5757\u7a81\u51fa\u663e\u793a\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u5982\u4f55\u5448\u73b0\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a\u5de6\u4fa7\u7684\u84dd\u8272\u662f\u6240\u6709\u8003\u8651\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff08a\uff09\u548c\u524d25\u79cd\uff08b\uff09\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u7ea2\u8272\u8868\u793a\u4ece\u968f\u673a\u5e8f\u5217\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u5728\u53f3\u8fb9\uff0c\u03c4 = 1\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u662f\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e73\u7a33\u671f\u5185\u805a\u5408\u5e02\u503c\u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u865a\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u5728 10 \u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e2d\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5316\u6570\u636e\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u5206\u5e03\u7684 1\/99 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


    <\/section>\n
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    <\/section>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    \n

    <\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \n
    <\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
    \n

    5. \u8ba8\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

    \n

    <\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

    <\/section>\n
    \u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03<\/span>\uff08SAD\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u4e3a\u4e2d\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e0\u8fc1\u5f99\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u63cf\u8ff0\u5143\u7fa4\u843d\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff09<\/span>\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86Fisher\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u62df\u5408\u4f18\u5ea6\u68c0\u9a8c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u4e0e\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ece\u5bf9\u6570\u5c3a\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0cSAD\u663e\u793a\u51fa<\/span>\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u7a00\u6709\u6216\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c11<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u591a\u7a00\u6709\u7269\u79cd\uff0c\u800c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5360\u4f18\u7269\u79cd\u5219\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
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    <\/section>\n
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    <\/section>\n
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    <\/section>\n
    \u7fa4\u843d\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0e\u5176\u7269\u79cd\u4e30\u5bcc\u5ea6\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u8868\u660e\uff0c<\/span>\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u7fa4\u843d\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u91cd\u7ec4\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5927\u91cf\u65b0\u7269\u79cd\u8fdb\u5165\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5fc5\u987b\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cd\u7ec4\u6765\u9002\u5e94\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u6ce8\u5165\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7ec6\u5206<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span>\u3002\u03b1\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u03b2\u591a\u6837\u6027\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u660e\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u79cd\u95f4\u7ade\u4e89\u5e76\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u5f31\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
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    <\/section>\n
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    <\/section>\n
    \u6700\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u503c\u4e0e\u6bcf\u79cd\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9610\u660e\u7269\u79cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u968f\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u76f8\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5426\u66f4\u5f31\u3002\u6210\u5bf9\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u7269\u79cd\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u79cd\u95f4\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6307\u6807\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u5219\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u7269\u79cd\u5185\u65f6\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u79cd\u5185\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6307\u6807\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u5f53\u79cd\u95f4\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u4e14\u4e3a\u6b63\u65f6\uff0c\u79cd\u5185\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u901a\u5e38\u8981\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4e0d\u663e\u8457\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u79cd\u95f4\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e0e\u79cd\u5185\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u76f8\u6bd4\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f31\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u5e76\u975e\u7531\u4e2d\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7fa4\u843d\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7ea6\u675f\u4ea7\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

    <\/section>\n
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    <\/section>\n
    \u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c<\/span>\u4f7f\u7528\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7fa4\u843d\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span>\u9664\u4e86\u9759\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8fd8\u7a81\u51fa\u4e86\u4e30\u5bcc\u65f6\u95f4\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0e\u4e2d\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u88ab\u8bc1\u4f2a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u4e3a\u7b80\u6d01\u63cf\u8ff0\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u53c2\u8003\u70b9\uff0c\u5145\u5f53\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u96f6\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u65b0\u7b56\u7565\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u52a8\u6001\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4e5f\u662f\u65b0\u9896\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u6574\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u53ef\u8bbf\u95ee\u6027\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u6765\u81ea\u91c7\u6837\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u523b\u753b\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u975e\u751f\u7269\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u6d4b\u8bd5\u751f\u6001\u7406\u8bba\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u6240\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u89c4\u5f8b\u548c\u603b\u4f53\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u63a2\u7d22\u5e02\u573a\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u8fd9\u4e00\u4ee4\u4eba\u5174\u594b\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u9886\u57df\u5f15\u5165\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5143\u7d20[36\uff0c37]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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    \u6570\u636e\u83b7\u53d6\u8def\u5f84<\/span><\/section>\n
    \u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6570\u636e\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4eceCoin Market Cap\u4e0b\u8f7d\u3002\u4e0b\u8f7d\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u4ece\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4f4d\u7f6e\u8bbf\u95ee\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
    https:\/\/coinmarketcap.com\/all\/views\/all\/<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n

    <\/span><\/section>\n


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    \u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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    2. Ammous S. 2018 Can cryptocurrencies fulfill the functions of money? Q. Rev. Econ.
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    Urquhart A. 2016 The inefficiency of Bitcoin. Econ. Lett. 148, 80\u201382. (doi:10.1016\/j.econlet. 2016.09.019)<\/span><\/p>\n

    4. Dimitrova V, Ferna\u0301ndez-Marti\u0301nez M, Sa\u0301nchez- Granero MA, Trinidad Segovia JE. 2019 Some comments on Bitcoin market (in)efficiency. PLoS ONE 14, e0219243. (doi:10.1371\/journal.pone. 0219243)<\/span><\/p>\n

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    6. Droz\u0307dz\u0307 S, Minati L, Os\u0301wie \u0327cimka P, Stanuszek M, Watorek M. 2020 Competition of noise and collectivity in global cryptocurrency trading: route to a self-contained market. Chaos 30, 023122. (doi:10.1063\/1.5139634)<\/span><\/p>\n

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    13. Buchanan A, Packard NH, Bedau MA. 2011 Measuring the drivers of technological innovation in the patent record. Artif. Life 17, 109. (doi:10.1162\/artl_a_00022)<\/span><\/p>\n

    14. Chow SS, Wilke CO, Ofria C, Lenski RE, Adami C. 2004 Adaptive radiation from resource competition in digital organisms. Science 305, 84. (doi:10.1126\/science.1096307)<\/span><\/p>\n

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    16. MacArthur RH. 1957 On the relative abundance of bird species. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 43, 293\u2013295. (doi:10.1073\/pnas.43.3.293)<\/span><\/p>\n

    17. Hubbell SP. 2001 The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography (MPB-32). Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.<\/span><\/p>\n

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