{"id":36268,"date":"2022-08-03T22:25:33","date_gmt":"2022-08-03T14:25:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=36268"},"modified":"2022-08-03T22:25:33","modified_gmt":"2022-08-03T14:25:33","slug":"%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%ef%bc%9a%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e9%9a%8f%e6%96%87%e5%8c%96%e6%bc%94%e5%8f%98%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=36268","title":{"rendered":"\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u53d8\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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2021\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u4e8ePNAS<\/em>\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e3b\u5f20\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\u2014\u2014\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\uff08social finance\uff09\uff0c\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u5b83\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u53e4\u5178\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u3001\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u548c\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u73af\u5883\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u6f14\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e94\u7528\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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Erol Ak\u00e7ayaa, David Hirshleiferbb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5f20\u65ed<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u674e\u6ce2\u3001\u6881\u91d1<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u5ba1\u6821<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/p>\n


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Social finance as cultural evolution, transmission bias, and market dynamics<\/span><\/p>\n

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https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2015568118<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u5206\u5e03\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u9879\u76ee\u9009\u62e9\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u5229\u6da6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u679c\u53cd\u9988\u5230\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u6210\u679c\u4e2d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u53cc\u5411\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6b64\u4e3b\u5f20\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8303\u5f0f\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d<\/span>\uff08social finance\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/strong>\u3002\u5b83\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u53e4\u5178\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u3001\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u548c\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u73af\u5883\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u5236\u5b9a\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u6f14\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e94\u7528\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316<\/span><\/strong>\uff08cultural evolution\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u6307\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08cultural traits\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u9891\u7387\u65b9\u9762\u589e\u52a0\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e60\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u4e5f\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u548c\u89c2\u5bdf\u6765\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u663e\u8457\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3001\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u660e\u786e\u548c\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u4e0a\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60f3\u6cd5\u6216\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea4\u6613\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u4e0a\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u548c\u5fae\u89c2\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5982\u76f8\u4fe1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u5982\u7ecf\u7406\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u5e76\u4f20\u64ad\u5173\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002Hirshleifer(2)\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u6c11\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong><\/span>\uff08folk economic and financial models\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6c11\u95f4\u91d1\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f80\u5f80\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u6d45\u8584\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u53e3\u5934\u7985\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5982\u201c\u6b7b\u732b\u53cd\u5f39\u201d\u548c\u201c\u4e0d\u8981\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f5c\u5bf9\u201d\u3002\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u6709\u65f6\u8fd8\u9644\u7740\u5728\u751f\u52a8\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f20\u64ad\uff083\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u8def\u5f84\u7531\u6765\u5df2\u4e45\uff084\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u201d\uff085\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u201c\u547c\u5401\u201d\u652f\u6301\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6f14\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff082, 3, 6, 7\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u6f14\u5316\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6587\u732e\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5bf9\u4e3b\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u96f6\u667a\u80fd\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u540e\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u63a8\u5bfc\u6216\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u5904\u7406\u4e3b\u4f53\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651\u5730\u5bfb\u6c42\u4f18\u5316<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e3b\u4f53\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u9009\u62e9\u884c\u52a8\u65f6\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u79d1\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u548c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
1\uff09\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5c06\u7ecf\u5178\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7279\u4f8b\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5185\u751f\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u53f7\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5206\u5e03\u7684\uff1b\u5728\u7ecf\u5178\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u5e03\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u91d1\u878d\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u504f\u5dee<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e8\u6240\u8ff0\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u5851\u9020\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e3b\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u548c\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u5ef6\u7eed\u6216\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u5173\u4e8e\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u4ea4\u6613\u6587\u732e\uff089\uff09\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u89c2\u70b9\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u91ca\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u5f00\u59cb\u6301\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6216\u51b3\u7b56\u89c4\u5219\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u6587\u5316\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4ece\u4ed6\u4eba\u90a3\u91cc\u83b7\u5f97\u8ffd\u9010\u8d8b\u52bf\u6216\u9006\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u56de\u62a5\u8d8b\u52bf\u8d8b\u4e8e\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e0e\u56de\u62a5\u8d8b\u4e8e\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u201c\u9022\u4f4e\u4e70\u5165\u201d\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u7ade\u4e89\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u548c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u641c\u7d22\u5e38\u5e38\u628a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u5f53\u4f5c\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5916\u751f\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\uff0810\uff0c11\uff09\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8ba4\u4e3a\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5fae\u89c2\u6f14\u5316\u6587\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5185\u751f\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8003\u8651\u7684\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5373\u5fc3\u7406\u504f\u5dee\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0e\u751f\u4ff1\u6765\u7684<\/span>\uff08\u4e3a\u4e86\u5206\u6790\u76ee\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u7ecf\u5178\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8003\u8651\u7684\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u8d34\u73b0\u7387\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\uff09<\/span>\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u673a\u68b0\u6027\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5c06\u7ecf\u5178\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u5f62\u6210\u6216\u504f\u597d\u5185\u751f\u5316\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u5141\u8bb8\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u6216\u673a\u68b0\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u65e2\u5141\u8bb8\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u4e5f\u5141\u8bb8\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u4e3b\u52a8\u601d\u8003\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
2) \u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4ee5\u524d\u5173\u4e8e\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u6587\u732e\u901a\u5e38\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8ffd\u9010\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4ea4\u6613\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u6216\u4e50\u89c2\u4e0e\u60b2\u89c2\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7ade\u4e89<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e12\u548c13\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u5c06\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6269\u5927\u5230\u5b9e\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u548c\u6c11\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u589e\u957f\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u6216\u5bf9\u7ba1\u7406\u9879\u76ee\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u56de\u62a5\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
3\uff09\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u662f\u4ea4\u53c9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u7b2c2\u70b9\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u662f\u63a2\u8ba8\u5177\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u5206\u5e03\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u5e76\u6539\u53d8\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5982\u50a8\u84c4\u503e\u5411\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u6216\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
4\uff09\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651\u7684\u5206\u6790\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u591f\u5b8c\u7f8e\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u6a21\u578b\u7ecf\u5e38\u91c7\u7528\u5173\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u6216\u4ef7\u683c\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u673a\u68b0\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5bcc\u6709\u6210\u6548\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f5c\u4e3a\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5904\u7406\u8005\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5206\u6790\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
5) \u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u66f4\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b50\u96c6\u8003\u8651\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6210\u5206\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u8bb8\u591a\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u56de\u62a5\u4e3a\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u2014\u2014\u590d\u5236\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0814\uff09<\/span>\uff08\u5173\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u89c1\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e15\u548c16\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8bd5\u56fe\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u5212\u5206\u548c\u63a2\u7d22\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e14\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u89c2\u5bdf\u548c\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3001\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u3001\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u66f4\u591a\u63d0\u793a\u7684\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6301\u6709\u8005\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u5411\u4ed6\u4eba\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u7b49\uff0c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
6\uff09\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8003\u8651\u5230\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u590d\u5236\u548c\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u4f20\u64ad\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u65f6\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u4fee\u6539\u3002\u5728\u9057\u4f20\u6f14\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6216\u4fee\u6539\u8fc7\u7684\u9057\u4f20\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b<\/span>\uff08mutation pressure\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\uff0c\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\u662f\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u62e5\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6709\u5229\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u5411\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4f20\u64ad\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u65cb\u6da1\u201d\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u63a8\u52a8\u5176\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
7) \u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8003\u8651\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u9ad8\u9891\u4ea4\u6613\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5e42\u5f8b\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u548c\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8870\u51cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u6df7\u6c8c\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0817\uff09\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u73b0\u8c61\u548c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8c1c\u9898\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u4ea4\u6613\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4e\u9891\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c\u5d29\u6e83\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5f02\u5e38\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u76d1\u7ba1\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u4ece\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e94\u7528\u975e\u5e38\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u6709\u671b\u4e0e\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u8109\u7edc\u5efa\u7acb\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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2. \u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u53d8\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n
\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5305\u542b\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u504f\u597d\u3001\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5728\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f20\u64ad\u65f6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4fee\u6539\u3002\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5982\u7f8e\u5143\u6210\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u6cd5\u3001\u6280\u672f\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u9009\u80a1\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u590d\u5236\u3001\u8fa9\u8bba\u3001\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u5e76\u76f8\u4e92\u529d\u8bf4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u9057\u4f20\u662f\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4f20\u64ad\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e3b\u4f53\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e3b\u4f53\uff09<\/span>\u4e4b\u95f4\u5728\u7279\u5f81\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u793e\u4f1a\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4f53\u88ab\u6307\u5b9a\u4e3a\u6587\u5316\u4e0a\u7684\u7956\u5148\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u6307\u5b9a\u4e3a\u4f20\u627f\u4eba\u3002\u5728\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f8e\u5999\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f20\u64ad\u6027\u3002\u652f\u6301\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u2014\u2014\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u6587\u5316\u4f20\u627f\u4eba\u3002\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u8d2d\u4e70\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u65cb\u6da1\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5206\u6790\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7cbe\u786e\u91cf\u5316\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u666e\u83b1\u65af\u65b9\u7a0b<\/span>\uff08Price equation\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u4e00\u4ee3\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u5206\u89e3\u4e3a\u9009\u62e9\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u975e\u9009\u62e9\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08\u53cd\u6620\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\uff09<\/span>\uff0818-20\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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3. \u4ee5\u91d1\u878d\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ece\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u542f\u793a<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u5bf9\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7279\u522b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u89c1\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6587\u5316\u4f20\u64ad\u662f\u6709\u201c\u504f\u5dee\u201d\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee<\/span>\uff08transmission bias\uff09<\/span>\u65e2\u5f71\u54cd\u4f20\u64ad\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f71\u54cd\u7279\u5f81\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4f20\u64ad\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027<\/span>\uff08\u9009\u62e9\uff09<\/span>\u3002Shennan\uff0821\uff09\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u4f20\u64ad\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4e09\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u504f\u5dee\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u90bb\u5c45\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u6709\u56de\u62a5\u503e\u5411\u7684\u6a21\u4eff\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u504f\u5dee\u662f\u53ef\u89c1\u6027\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u540e\u679c\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e3a\u66f4\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0822\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5185\u5bb9\u504f\u5dee<\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u5bf9\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u751f\u52a8\u3001\u6709\u8da3\u3001\u6709\u7528\u6216\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\uff0823\uff09\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u5bb9\u6613\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u975e\u5e38\u5e7c\u7a1a\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7b56\u7565\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u8bed\u5883\u504f\u5dee<\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u6307\u4e92\u52a8\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5982\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u6216\u5a01\u671b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63a5\u6536\u8005\u7684\u5524\u9192\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0824\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u4e3b\u4f53\u7684\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u4e0e\u63a5\u6536\u8005\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8bed\u5883\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u73af\u5883\u7684\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u6216\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6761\u4ef6\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u4e3b\u4f53\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u53ef\u4ee5\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u53d1\u9001\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u89c2\u5bdf\u76ee\u6807\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u63a5\u6536\u8005\uff0c\u6216\u4e24\u8005\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u504f\u5411\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u6b63\u8bd5\u56fe\u9500\u552e\u8be5\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u987a\u5e94\u8005\u504f\u5411\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0b\uff0814\uff09\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u590d\u5236\u6700\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u4e00\u65e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u6216\u6d3b\u52a8<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u3001\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u521b\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u4f01\u4e1a\u591a\u5143\u5316\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff09<\/span>\u53d8\u5f97\u8db3\u591f\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u4e00\u76f4\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6539\u53d8\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u56de\u62a5\u504f\u5411\u6027\u4f20\u64ad\u5177\u6709\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u4f4e\u6536\u8d39\u7684\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u9ad8\u6536\u8d39\u7684\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u56de\u62a5\u504f\u5411\u6027\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u663e\u5f0f\u5efa\u6a21\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u969c\u788d\uff0c\u5982\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u8ffd\u9010\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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 <\/span><\/section>\n

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4. \u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u65e2\u53ef\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u529f\u80fd\u6027\u7279\u5f81\uff0c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u529f\u80fd\u969c\u788d\u6027\u7279\u5f81<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u8fbe\u5c14\u6587\u9009\u62e9\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u9002\u5e94\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u751f\u7269\u4f53\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\u3002\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u662f Lo\uff087\uff09\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4<\/strong><\/span>\uff08adaptive markets hypothesis\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5173\u952e\u524d\u63d0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5728\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u9002\u5e94\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u57fa\u56e0\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u7e41\u6b96\u6210\u529f\u7387\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u80fd\u4fc3\u8fdb\u627f\u8f7d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u8f7d\u4f53<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6216\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u798f\u5229\u6216\u590d\u5236\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6210\u529f\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6c11\u95f4\u91d1\u878d\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5e38\u5728\u4e1a\u4f59\u7231\u597d\u8005\u548c\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6709\u65e0\u6570\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u5176\u6301\u6709\u8005\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u91cf\u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u8005\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6b63\u786e\u7406\u89e3\u6240\u8d4b\u4e88\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff0825\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u4e66\u7c4d\u548c\u7f51\u7ad9\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e00\u81f4\u5730\u5efa\u8bae\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u5728\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u73b0\u503c\u53d8\u4e3a\u6b63\u6570\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u63d0\u524d\u8fdb\u884c\u518d\u878d\u8d44\u3002\u4f46\u542c\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u5c06\u786e\u4fdd\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u4ece\u518d\u878d\u8d44\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e3a\u96f6\uff01\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6cd5\u5219\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u4f7f\u5176\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6027\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5b83\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5bb9\u6613\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62d6\u5ef6\u548c\u61d2\u60f0\u3002\u201c\u7f8e\u5143\u6210\u672c\u5e73\u5747\u6cd5\u201d\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u7531\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u786e\u7406\u89e3\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0826\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5bf9\u6301\u6709\u8005\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cRantala (27)\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u82ac\u5170\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u578b\u5e9e\u6c0f\u9a97\u5c40\u662f\u4ee5\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u4e3a\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7684\u3002\u9879\u76ee\u6298\u73b0\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u6807\u51c6\u7531\u4e8e\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4ef7\u503c\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u7559\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u53ef\u4f20\u64ad\u6027\u5f80\u5f80\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5b83\u6709\u591a\u666e\u904d\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5bf9\u6301\u6709\u8005\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u4e0e\u9891\u7387\u6709\u5173\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u4e2d\u7684\u62e5\u6324\u6210\u672c\u662f\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\u7684\u2014\u2014\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u5c06\u51cf\u5c11\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u76f8\u540c\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u751f\u6001\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u5f71\u54cd\u5f7c\u6b64\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\uff0828\uff09\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5bf9\u9891\u7387\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08\u6216\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\uff09<\/span>\u591a\u6837\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4fdd\u6301\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u7531\u4e8e\u9891\u7387\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u548c\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u591a\u79cd\u591a\u6837\u7684\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u5171\u5b58\uff0c\u9002\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u751f\u6001\u4f4d\u7531\u6563\u6237\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u5404\u79cd\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u586b\u8865\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cLo (7)\u628a\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u4e13\u4e1a\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u52a0\u62c9\u5e15\u6208\u65af\u5c9b\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6218\u7565\u4e92\u8865\u6027\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u6d88\u6781\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf1\u53d1\u591a\u79cd\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6216\u975e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5747\u8861\u4e4b\u95f4\u7ecf\u5386\u5173\u952e\u8f6c\u53d8<\/span>\uff08critical transition\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u793e\u4f1a\u5df2\u7ecf\u6f14\u5316\u5230\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u652f\u6491\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u5546\u4e1a\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8d44\u52a9\u3002\u8fd9\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u4e3b\u4f53\u548c\u76d1\u7ba1\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u671f\u671b\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u4e3a\u4ece\u91d1\u878d\u81ea\u7ed9\u81ea\u8db3\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u5efa\u7acb\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7d2f\u79ef\u6027\u5730\u6f14\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u53ef\u4ee5\u5de9\u56fa\u6027\u72b6\u7684\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e4b\u76f8\u4e92\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u5171\u540c\u6210\u529f\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f02\u4f4d\u663e\u6027<\/span>\uff08epistasis\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5373\u9057\u4f20\u5355\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u5ff5\u662f\u51e0\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u5171\u540c\u9002\u5e94\u7ec4\u5408\uff1a\u6700\u597d\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u57fa\u672c\u4ef7\u503c\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u800c\u8a00\u4ef7\u683c\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u662f\u4e0d\u9891\u7e41\u4ea4\u6613<\/span>\uff08\u201c\u4e70\u5165\u5e76\u6301\u6709\u201d\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u662f\u907f\u514d\u88ab\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6240\u5de6\u53f3<\/span>\uff08\u9006\u5411\u4e3b\u4e49\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u5b9a\u4ef7\u662f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ece\u9ad8\u4ef7\u80a1\u5230\u4f4e\u4ef7\u80a1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5c31\u4e0e\u4e70\u5165\u5e76\u6301\u6709\u76f8\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60f3\u6cd5\u5728\u60c5\u611f\u4e0a\u662f\u4e92\u8865\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u5f80\u5f80\u901a\u8fc7\u6d45\u663e\u7684\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u60c5\u611f\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9053\u5fb7\u6001\u5ea6\uff083, 29\uff09\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c\u54f2\u5b66\u63a8\u5d07\u8282\u4fed\u3001\u957f\u671f\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u72ec\u7acb\u601d\u8003\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u7f8e\u5fb7\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u903b\u8f91\u4e5f\u662f\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5982\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u5b9a\u91cf\u5efa\u6a21\u6240\u4f9d\u636e\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4ece\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u72ec\u6728\u821f\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7279\u5f81\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u53f2\u90fd\u662f\u7528\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d1\u80b2\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ffd\u8e2a\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0830\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u751a\u81f3\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u8de8\u4f53\u7cfb\u501f\u7528\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u6587\u672c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ece\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0a\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6c11\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u9ad8\u9891\u7387\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u8bc1\u5238\u3001\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u54f2\u5b66<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f1a\u6709\u5fae\u89c2\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u5174\u8870\u3002\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u5230\u4e2d\u7b49\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4e0b\uff0c\u6cd5\u89c4\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u7684\u987e\u95ee\u548c\u4e2d\u4ecb\u673a\u6784\u4e3a\u96f6\u552e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6216\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5b9a\u5236\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u670d\u52a1<\/span>\uff08\u6709\u7528\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5982\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5206\u6790\u548c\u91cf\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\u7684\u504f\u597d\u548c\u5fc3\u6001<\/span>\uff08\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u597d\u3001\u5173\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff09<\/span>\u53d7\u5230\u5b97\u6559\u3001\u79cd\u65cf\u548c\u6c11\u65cf\u6587\u5316\u7b49\u7f13\u6162\u53d8\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0831\uff09\u3002\u7d2f\u79ef\u6f14\u5316\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u6c11\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5982\u6295\u8d44\u54f2\u5b66\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u548c\u57fa\u56e0\u53ef\u4ee5\u5171\u540c\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6001\u5ea6\u548c\u504f\u597d\uff0832\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6700\u5feb\u548c\u6700\u6162\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u6700\u9ad8\u9891\u7387\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u5982\u4f55\u53d7\u5230\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff0833\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8f83\u4f4e\u9891\u7387\u4e0b\uff0c\u8de8\u4ee3\u884c\u4e3a\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6355\u6349\u5230\u6587\u5316\u548c\u9057\u4f20\u9009\u62e9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0820, 34, 35\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e3a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5f00\u8f9f\u4e86\u9053\u8def\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n

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<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

5. \u91d1\u878d\u4e2d\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u504f\u5411\u6027\u4f20\u64ad\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8f6c\u5411\u533a\u9694\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08compartmental model\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u68c0\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u504f\u5411\u6027\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
\u56de\u62a5\u504f\u5411\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u4f20\u64ad<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u6a21\u578b\u7740\u91cd\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u673a\u68b0\u6027\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u5982\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c\u5468\u671f\u3001\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6536\u76ca\u6a21\u6001\uff0836\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u5e42\u5f8b\uff0837\uff09\u3002\u6709\u51e0\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u4fe1\u5ff5\u66f4\u65b0\u51fd\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u8868\u73b0\u8fdb\u884c\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0838, 39\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u5e38\u5047\u8bbe\u5173\u4e8e\u7b56\u7565\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u65e0\u504f\u5dee\u5730\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u804c\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66f4\u591a\u8c08\u8bba\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9ad8\u56de\u62a5\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f4e\u56de\u62a5\u7ecf\u9a8c(40-42)\u2014\u2014\u81ea\u6211\u589e\u5f3a\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u6709\u56de\u62a5\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u56de\u62a5\u62a5\u544a\u53d7\u5230\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e43\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u91c7\u53d6\u4e24\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\uff1a\u201c\u4e3b\u52a8\u201d\uff08A\uff09\u6216\u201c\u88ab\u52a8\u201d\uff08P\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dA\u5177\u6709\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u65b9\u5dee<\/span>\uff08variance\uff09<\/span>\u6216\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u504f\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08skewness\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u6210\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f1a\u9762\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u5411\u63a5\u6536\u8005\u62a5\u544a\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6982\u7387\u968f\u7740\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u65b9\u5f0f\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9ad8\u65b9\u5dee\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u63a5\u53d7\u8005\u672a\u80fd\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u8fd8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e1a\u7ee9\u662f\u672a\u6765\u4e1a\u7ee9\u7684\u6307\u793a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9ad8\u65b9\u5dee\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b83\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u5206\u5e03\u662f\u8f83\u5dee\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9A\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u538b\u529b\u4f7f\u5176\u53d8\u5f97\u4ef7\u683c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u4e3a\u6563\u6237\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u4e3b\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u5f02\u5e38\u73b0\u8c61\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6781\u7aef\u6536\u76ca\u662f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u663e\u8457\u7684\uff0c\u6b63\u504f\u5ea6\u7b56\u7565\u4e5f\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5728\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b63\u504f\u5ea6\u7b56\u7565\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u9ad8\u56de\u62a5\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u5927\u91cf\u5730\u4f20\u64ad\u7ed9\u63a5\u6536\u8005\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u63a5\u6536\u8005\u4ea7\u751f\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u542b\u4e49\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u6b63\u504f\u5ea6\u7684\u504f\u597d\u548c\u201c\u5f69\u7968\u80a1\u201d\u660e\u663e\u5b9a\u4ef7\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002 \u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6548\u5e94\u88ab\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u5173\u7cfb\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66f4\u6709\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u53d1\u9001\u548c\u63a5\u6536\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u4e58\u6cd5\u4e92\u52a8\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5411A\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u7387\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u9012\u589e\u51f8\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fdb\u5165\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6d41\u5165\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4ece\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u5230\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0844, 45\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e0e\u9009\u62e9\u66f4\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5373\u8d4c\u6ce8\u5bf9\u51b2\uff0846\uff09\u3002Brennan \u548c Lo (47)\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u8d4c\u6ce8\u5bf9\u51b2\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5982\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u538c\u6076\u548c\u6982\u7387\u5339\u914d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u53ef\u4ee5\u62b5\u6d88\u4e0a\u9762\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
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 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5373\u65f6\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u504f\u597d<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e48\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5176\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u542b\u4e49\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u53ef\u89c1\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6d88\u8d39\u662f\u7531\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u66f4\u65b0\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u62ab\u9732\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u76f4\u63a5\u504f\u597d\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u5219\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u62ab\u9732\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0849\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728 Hirshleifer \u548c Plotkin\uff0850\uff09\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u9879\u76ee\u6bd4\u4e0d\u6210\u529f\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u66f4\u80fd\u5f15\u8d77\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u719f\u6089\u5fae\u8f6f\u548c\u8c37\u6b4c\uff0c\u800c\u8bb8\u591a\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u521d\u521b\u4f01\u4e1a\u5219\u88ab\u9057\u5fd8\u3002\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u5bdf\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u4eec\u8fc7\u5ea6\u91c7\u7528\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e8b\u5148\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u4f4e\u3001\u6210\u529f\u540e\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u9ad8\u7684\u201c\u767b\u6708\u201d\u9879\u76ee<\/span>\uff08moonshot projects\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
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 <\/span><\/section>\n
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 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8c08\u5230\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u7ea7\u8054<\/span>\uff08information cascade\uff0c\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u201cherding\u201d\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63a2\u7d22\u4e3b\u4f53\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\uff0854, 55\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf1\u53d1\u4e86\u6a21\u4eff\u6027\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u2014\u2014\u91c7\u7528\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u91c7\u7528\u5176\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u503e\u5411\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u884c\u52a8\u662f\u89c2\u5bdf\u76ee\u6807\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u7c97\u7565\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e3b\u4f53\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6c47\u603b\u4e5f\u5f88\u5dee\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u7ea7\u8054\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f1a\u56fa\u5b9a\u5728\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u79c1\u4eba\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5c0f\u51b2\u51fb\u5e38\u5e38\u5bfc\u81f4\u7fa4\u4f53\u4ece\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u6447\u6446\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u5f81<\/span>\uff08\u201c\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u201d\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u7ea7\u8054\u4e5f\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7a81\u7136\u7684\u7e41\u8363\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4f53\u5728\u7b49\u7740\u770b\u522b\u4eba\u4f1a\u600e\u4e48\u505a\uff0856\uff09\u3002\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u51e0\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u7ea7\u8054\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u73b0\u8c61\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u4fe1\u606f\u805a\u96c6\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u5d29\u6e83\uff0857\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u606f\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc1\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f51\u7edc\u5730\u4f4d\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u6295\u8d44\u7ee9\u6548\u3001\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u798f\u5229\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6027\uff0852, 58\uff09\u3002\u4fe1\u606f\u6e17\u6d41<\/span>\uff08information  percolation\uff09<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u8003\u8651\u5f53\u4e3b\u4f53\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u5730\u4ece\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u6311\u9009\u51fa\u6765\u89c1\u9762\u5e76\u5206\u4eab\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u65f6\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u5171\u4eab\uff0851\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\uff0859\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u79ef\u7d2f\u4fe1\u53f7\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\u4f1a\u8bf1\u53d1\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u76ca\u4e8e\u6b63\u786e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4fe1\u53f7\u5728\u4f20\u64ad\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u88ab\u626d\u66f2\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6709\u5bb3\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\u3002 \u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab Price \u65b9\u7a0b\uff0818, 50\uff09\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u9009\u62e9\u9879\u6240\u6355\u83b7\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6709\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u548c\u7a81\u53d8\u538b\u529b\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u5728\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e2\u7684\u6709\u504f\u5dee\u6e17\u6d41\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u4fe1\u53f7\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f20\u64ad\u7ed9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u65f6\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u8d44\u4ea7\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u53f7\u90fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u6052\u5b9a\u7684\u504f\u5deeb\u3002\u968f\u7740\u91cd\u590d\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u6570\u91cf\u5448\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u589e\u957f\u3002\u504f\u5dee\u4f1a\u9012\u5f52\u5730\u7d2f\u52a0\uff0c\u6709\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4fe1\u53f7\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u989d\u5916\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4fe1\u53f7\u8f93\u51fa\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u63a5\u6536\u8005\u672a\u80fd\u8003\u8651\u4f20\u64ad\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u968f\u7740\u4fe1\u53f7\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce1\u6cab\u4f1a\u5f00\u59cb\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6ce1\u6cab\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u5f88\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u52a0\u901f\uff1b\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8d77\u521d\u6309\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u79bb\u6563\u7684\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u7684\u516c\u5171\u4fe1\u53f7\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53cd\u5bf9\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u7ea0\u6b63\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u6216\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u6700\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u7684\u632f\u8361\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u77ed\u671f\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\u81ea\u5173\u8054\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b9e\u8bc1\u8c1c\u9898\uff0860\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5e73\u6ed1\u548c\u9a7c\u5cf0\u5f62\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u52a8\u91cf\u548c\u957f\u671f\u53cd\u8f6c\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e0e\u4f4e\u9891\u56de\u62a5\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\uff0861, 62\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u8bb8\u591a\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u201c\u6beb\u65e0\u7406\u7531\u201d\u7684\u5473\u9053\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u6295\u673a\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e5f\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u800c\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u5316\u6548\u5e94\uff1b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5982\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u201c\u79ef\u6781\u5730\u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\u7279\u5f81\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u533a\u9694\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u884c\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u6269\u6563\uff0863\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u6563\u6237\u548c\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6269\u6563<\/span>\uff08\u89c1\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e64\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5982\u9000\u4f11\u50a8\u84c4\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u80a1\u7968\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0865-70\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5728\u4eba\u4e0e\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5356\u51fa\u8d62\u5bb6\u591a\u4e8e\u5356\u51fa\u8f93\u5bb6\uff0871\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u79bb\u6563\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u504f\u5411\u6027\u4f20\u64ad\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u79f0\u4e3a\u533a\u9694\u6a21\u578b\uff0ccompartmental model\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u4f53\u73b0\uff0872\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u968f\u673a\u76f8\u9047\uff0c\u5728\u6df7\u5408\u7684\u4e00\u5bf9\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u4e3b\u4f53\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5c06\u6700\u521d\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u4f20\u64ad\u7ed9\u4f19\u4f34\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u53d1\u7684\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3002\u5728\u6700\u6709\u540d\u7684\u533a\u9694\u6a21\u578b\u2014\u2014SIR \u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u6613\u611f\u8005\uff08S\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6062\u590d\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08I\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ece\u672a\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u6062\u590d\u8005\u6216\u201c\u6d88\u9664\u201d\u8005\uff08R\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
Shiller\uff083\uff09\u5efa\u8bae\u5e94\u7528SIR\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u5728\u51e0\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u524d\u666f\u6301\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u5728 SIR \u548c\u76f8\u5173\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u548c\u6613\u611f\u6027\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4e58\u79ef\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4\u7684\u9879\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u6548\u5e94\u3002Shive\uff0869\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e0e\u82ac\u5170\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e58\u6cd5\u6548\u5e94\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
SIR \u76f8\u5173\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf1\u53d1\u4ef7\u683c\u8d85\u8c03\u548c\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002Burnside, Eichenbaum \u548cRebelo (73) \u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fee\u6539\u8fc7\u7684\u533a\u9694\u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u3001\u6000\u7591\u8005\u548c\u6613\u611f\u8005\u3002\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u671f\u5f85\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u6539\u5584\uff1b\u6000\u7591\u8005\u548c\u6613\u611f\u8005\u5219\u4e0d\u7136\u3002\u5728\u76f8\u9047\u65f6\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u76f8\u9047\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u6613\u611f\u8005\u5177\u6709\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u8f6c\u6362\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u6700\u5f31\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u786e\u51ff\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u7fa4\u4f1a\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u6700\u5177\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5177\u6709\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9ad8\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c31\u4f1a\u6682\u65f6\u4e0a\u5347<\/span>\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u8bf4\u670d\u6613\u611f\u8005\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5d29\u6e83<\/span>\uff08\u7531\u4e8e\u6000\u7591\u8005\u7684\u8bf4\u670d\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u533a\u9694\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7248\u672c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f20\u67d3\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u5916\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u9762\u4ea7\u751f\u65b0\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002Hirshleifer(2) \u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6539\u826f\u7684 SIRS \u8bbe\u7f6e<\/span>\uff08\u6700\u540e\u7684S\u8868\u793a\u6062\u590d\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u518d\u6b21\u6210\u4e3a\u6613\u611f\u8005\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u201c\u55e1\u55e1\u58f0\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5174\u594b\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f7f\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u66f4\u5177\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u3002\u55e1\u55e1\u58f0\u4e0e\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u8ffd\u968f\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u6210\u6b63\u6bd4\u3002\u5f53\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u8df3\u4e0a\u652f\u6301\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u884c\u5217\u65f6\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u201c\u7099\u624b\u53ef\u70ed\u201d\uff0c\u4e0e\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u91c7\u7528\u8005\u7684\u4f1a\u9762\u5c31\u66f4\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u55e1\u55e1\u58f0\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ea4\u6d41\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u653e\u5f03\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u5185\u751f\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u4f20\u67d3\u53c2\u6570\u3002\u55e1\u55e1\u58f0\u6548\u5e94<\/span>\uff08Buzz effect\uff09<\/span>\u4f1a\u52a0\u5267\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u6216\u5d29\u6e83\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u8d85\u8c03<\/span>\uff08\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\uff09<\/span>\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5f53\u6ce1\u6cab\u5d29\u6e83\u65f6\uff0c\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u4f1a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6b64\u540e\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u963b\u5c3c\u5468\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u533a\u9694\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u6536\u76ca\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6ede\u540e\u671f\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u5e8f\u5217\u5173\u8054\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e00\u81f4\u3002Chinco(74) \u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u8bf1\u53d1\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u533a\u9694\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u5f3a\u5ea6\u9ad8\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u6709\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c\u6050\u614c\u4e00\u518d\u4e0e\u201c\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3\u201d\u6c11\u95f4\u6295\u8d44\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u6d41\u884c\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u533a\u9694\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e3a\u6b64\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0875\uff09\u3002\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6c11\u95f4\u6a21\u5f0f\u5076\u5c14\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u7a81\u53d8\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u5f53\u7a81\u53d8\u5f15\u8d77\u9ad8\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u53c2\u6570\u65f6\uff0c\u6c11\u95f4\u6295\u8d44\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7206\u70b8\u6027\u5730\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8bf1\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

\n
\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u9014\u5f84\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n<\/h2>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u542b\u4e49\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u53c8\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53d1\u9001\u8005\u548c\u63a5\u6536\u8005\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u7ed3\u6784<\/span>\uff08\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u522b\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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6. \u653f\u7b56\u548c\u76d1\u7763<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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7. \u7ed3\u8bba\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u8fdc\u8fdc\u591a\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u76f8\u4e92\u4ea4\u8c08<\/span>\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6587\u672c\u4ea4\u6d41\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u7406\u6027\u7684\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u5bf9\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u6709\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u8fdb\u884c\u6f14\u5316\u5efa\u6a21\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u6709\u524d\u9014\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u793e\u4f1a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u60c5\u7eea\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u540c\u79cd\u7c7b\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u53d9\u8ff0\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff083, 7\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u6ce1\u6cab\u5f00\u59cb\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u65f6\uff0c\u6050\u60e7\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u5371\u9669\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0e\u673a\u4f1a\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
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2 D. Hirshleifer, Presidential address: Social transmission bias in economics and finance. J. Finance 75, 1779\u2013 1831 (2020).<\/span><\/section>\n
3 R. J. Shiller, Narrative economics. Am. Econ. Rev. 107, 967\u2013 1004 (2017).<\/span><\/section>\n
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6 J. D. Farmer, A. W. Lo, Frontiers of finance: Evolution and efficient markets. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 96, 9991\u20139992 (1999).<\/span><\/section>\n
7 A. W. Lo, Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2017).<\/span><\/section>\n
8 D. Hirshleifer, Behavioral finance. Annu. Rev. Financial Econ. 7, 133\u2013 159 (2015).<\/span><\/section>\n
9 J. B. DeLong, A. Shleifer, L. Summers, R. J. Waldmann, Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation. J. Finance 45, 375\u2013395<\/span><\/section>\n
(1990).<\/span><\/section>\n
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11 M. Baker, J. Wurgler, Investor sentiment in the stock market. J. Econ. Perspect. 21, 129\u2013 151 (2007).<\/span><\/section>\n
12 I. V. Evstigneev, T. Hens, K. R. Schenk-Hoppe\u00b4,\u201c Evolutionary finance\u201din Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution, T.Hens, K.R.S.Hoppe\u00b4, Eds. (Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2009), pp. 507\u2013566.<\/span><\/section>\n
13 L. Blume, D. Easley, Heterogeneity, selection, and wealth dynamics. Annu. Rev. Econ. 2, 425\u2013450 (2010).<\/span><\/section>\n
14 R. Boyd, P. J. Richerson, Culture and the Evolutionary Process (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, 1985).<\/span><\/section>\n
15 B. LeBaron,\u201cAgent-based computational finance\u201din Handbook of Computational Economics, L. Tesfatsion, K. L. Judd, Eds. (Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2006), vol. 2, pp. 1187\u2013 1233.<\/span><\/section>\n
16 C. H. Hommes, F. O. Wagener,\u201cComplex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance\u201din Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution, T. Hens,<\/span><\/section>\n
K. R. Schenk-Hopp, Eds. (Elsevier, Oxford, UK, 2009), pp. 217\u2013276.<\/span><\/section>\n
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