{"id":36289,"date":"2022-08-04T22:43:54","date_gmt":"2022-08-04T14:43:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=36289"},"modified":"2022-08-04T22:43:54","modified_gmt":"2022-08-04T14:43:54","slug":"%e5%9c%a8%e6%b7%b7%e6%b2%8c%e8%be%b9%e7%bc%98%e5%86%b2%e6%b5%aa%ef%bc%9a%e9%9d%9e%e7%ba%bf%e6%80%a7%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e4%b8%8e%e9%a2%84%e9%98%b2%e6%80%a7%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e5%ad%a6%e8%af%b4%e7%9a%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=36289","title":{"rendered":"\u5728\u6df7\u6c8c\u8fb9\u7f18\u51b2\u6d6a\uff1a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u9884\u9632\u6027\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u8bf4\u7684\u51fa\u73b0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Sean Lawso<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong>n <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong>| \u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u8bd1\u8005<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/p>\n


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Surfing on the edge of chaos: Nonlinear science and the emergence of a doctrine of preventive war in the US<\/span><\/section>\n
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/0306312711402866<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


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\u5173\u6ce8\u51b7\u6218\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\uff08Science and technology Studies, STS\uff09<\/span>\u5b66\u8005\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5f3a\u8c03\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u60c5\u51b5\u800c\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u65b0\u7684\u673a\u6784\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u626d\u66f2\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bd5\u56fe\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u626d\u66f2\u4e3b\u4e49\u201d\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u590d\u6742\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65b0\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u53d9\u8ff0\u548c\u60f3\u8c61\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\u5f85\u8de8\u8d8a\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u5f80\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u82cf\u8054\u51b7\u6218\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0cHounshell\u7b49\u4eba\u8868\u793a\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u540e\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
Solovey<\/span> (2001a: 165) <\/span>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u51b7\u6218\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u51b7\u6218\u79d1\u5b66\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765 \u201c\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u653f\u6cbb\u201d\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u519b\u4e8b\u5bf9\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u51b7\u6218\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u5bf9\u51b7\u6218\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6218\u7565\u548c\u51b7\u6218\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 Edwards <\/span>(1996) <\/span>\u548c Ghamari-Tabrizi<\/span> (2000, 2005) <\/span>\u5173\u4e8e\u6570\u5b57\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u5982\u4f55\u542f\u7528\u548c\u5851\u9020\u51b7\u6218\u8bdd\u8bed\u548c\u6218\u7565\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca Solovey<\/span> (2001b: 187) <\/span>\u5bf9 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 60 \u5e74\u4ee3\u77e5\u8bc6\u8bba\u9769\u547d\u4e2d\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u9690\u55bb\u7684\u8003\u5bdf\u3002Mellor <\/span>(2007: 522) <\/span>\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u53d9\u4e8b\u5728 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\u96c6\u4f53\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u201d\u5f62\u6210\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u65b0\u578b\u6b66\u5668\u88ab\u60f3\u8c61\u51fa\u6765\u5e76\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u201d\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0cGary <\/span>(1998, 2005)<\/span> \u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u754c\u5851\u9020\u51b7\u6218\u4e4b\u540e\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u6218\u5b66\u8bf4\u201d\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u672c\u6587\u901a\u8fc7\u8003\u5bdf\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u754c\u5173\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\u6240\u8d77\u7684\u9690\u55bb\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u519b\u4e8b-\u6280\u672f\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u540e\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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STS \u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u96c4\u8fa9\u5730\u8bba\u8bc1\uff0c\u9690\u55bb\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u4e2d\u8d77\u7740\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528 <\/span> (Haraway, 1991; Kay, 2000; Keller, 1995, 2000)<\/span>\u3002Wyatt<\/span> (2004: 245) <\/span>\u4ece\u5176\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ee5\u53ca Lakoff \u548c Johnson<\/span> (1980) <\/span>\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u9690\u55bb\u88ab\u7528\u4f5c\u89c4\u8303\u548c\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u5de5\u5177\u201d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7528\u4e8e\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u672c\u6587\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e86\u5728\u51b7\u6218\u540e\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\u7684\u7406\u7531\u6e90\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5728\u4f7f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u628a\u6280\u672f\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u5371\u9669\u6982\u5ff5\u5316\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u9690\u55bb\u662f\u8868\u8fbe\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u6280\u672f\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bdd\u8bed\u8d44\u6e90\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u8fd8\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5c06\u5e94\u5bf9\u51b7\u6218\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5b66\u8bf4\u6700\u7ec8\u90e8\u7f72\u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9911\u88ad\u51fb\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u5b97\u65e8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u8bf4\u539f\u672c\u65e8\u5728\u5e94\u5bf920\u4e16\u7eaa70-80\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4f3c\u4e4e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u201c\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f<\/span>\uff08\u53ca\u5931\u5e8f\uff09<\/span>\u201d\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6700\u9002\u5408\u5b83\u7684\u201c\u65b0\u79d1\u5b66\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u9690\u55bb\u6700\u7ec8\u5141\u8bb8\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u4ee5\u719f\u6089\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u201c\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e Nelkin \u548c Lindee <\/span>(1995) <\/span>\u8ffd\u6eaf\u6d41\u884c\u6587\u5316\u4e2d\u201c\u57fa\u56e0\u201d\u542b\u4e49\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u548c\u6269\u6563\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u8ffd\u6eaf\u4e86\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5851\u9020\u4e86\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e4b\u4ea4\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u501f\u9274\u4e86 Eglash<\/span> (1992, 1998, 2000)<\/span> \u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u6587\u5316\u53f2\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u63a7\u5236\u8bba\u548c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u9752\u5e74\u4e9a\u6587\u5316\u3001\u540e\u73b0\u4ee3\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u6982\u5ff5\u662f\u9057\u4f20\u79d1\u5b66\u6587\u5316\u53f2\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5f81\u52df\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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2. \u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u65e9\u5728 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 80 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u4eba\u4eec\u773c\u4e2d\u7684\u51b7\u6218\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u6218\u573a\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u201d\u548c\u201c\u6df7\u6c8c\u201d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u8fdb\u653b\u662f\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u4fee\u8f9e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4e3a 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5174\u8da3\u6e10\u6da8\u5e76\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u516c\u5f00\u8ba8\u8bba\u94fa\u5e73\u4e86\u9053\u8def\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
20 \u4e16\u7eaa 70 \u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6700\u5927\u6311\u6218\u662f\u82cf\u8054\u5728\u6838\u80fd\u529b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u540c\u7b49\u5730\u4f4d\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u5e38\u89c4\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u4f18\u52bf<\/span>\uff08International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1980; Tomes, 2007: 59, 70\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u754c\u5f00\u59cb\u53d1\u5c55\u5e38\u89c4\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6280\u672f\u548c\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u519b\u4ee5\u8d28\u91cf\u4f18\u52bf\u201c\u62b5\u6d88\u201d\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u5728\u201c\u62b5\u6d88\u6218\u7565\u201d\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u89c4\u5212\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u5229\u7528\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4f18\u52bf\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u65e5\u76ca\u4f9d\u8d56\u7535\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u6536\u96c6\u6218\u573a\u60c5\u62a5\u3001\u6307\u6325\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u519b\u961f\u4ee5\u53ca\u5411\u76ee\u6807\u8fd0\u9001\u7cbe\u786e\u5236\u5bfc\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u201d\u6b66\u5668<\/span> (Tomes, 2007: 63, 67) <\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u5212\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u6b66\u5668\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u6218\u573a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u548c\u6df7\u6c8c\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u5e76\u5bfb\u6c42\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u6df7\u4e71\u6761\u4ef6\u83b7\u5f97\u6218\u672f\u548c\u6218\u7565\u4f18\u52bf\u30021982 \u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u7a7a\u4e2d\u4f5c\u6218\u201d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u7f8e\u519b\u5c06\u4f9d\u9760\u5176\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u963b\u622a\u82cf\u8054\u7b2c\u4e8c\u68af\u961f\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u51cf\u7f13\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u63a8\u8fdb\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u7f8e\u519b\u626d\u8f6c\u5c40\u9762\u5e76\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fdb\u653b<\/span>\uff08Romjue, 1984: 32-33\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u63d0\u5230\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u8be5\u5b66\u8bf4\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u4e5f\u5c06\u6218\u573a\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u201d\u548c\u201c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u80dc\u5229\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u638c\u63e1\u4e3b\u52a8\u6743\uff0c\u91c7\u53d6\u653b\u51fb\u6027\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u5e76\u5229\u7528\u6df7\u6c8c\u548c\u9a9a\u4e71\uff0c\u5bf9\u654c\u4eba\u9020\u6210\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/span>\uff08\u8d85\u989d\u7684\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd<\/span>\uff08\u89c1 Hall, 1986:41-42; Wass de Czege, 1984: 109\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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1989 \u5e74\uff0c\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u4e5f\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u3002\u5b83\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0e\u9646\u519b\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u548c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u6218\u573a\u3002\u5b83\u547c\u5401\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u5b66\u4f1a\u201c\u5728\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u5065\u58ee\u6210\u957f\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u6df7\u4e71\u201c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4ed8\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e94\u4ed8\u7684\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u201d<\/span>\uff08United States Marine Corps, 1989: 64\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u300a\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u624b\u518c\u300b<\/span>\uff08Marine doctrine manual\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u8005John Schmitt\u4e0a\u5c09\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u201c\u7531\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u662f \u4e00\u79cd\u6d41\u52a8\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u8fc5\u901f\u800c\u6301\u7eed\u5730\u6539\u53d8\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5c31\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u6539\u53d8\u800c\u52a0\u5f3a\u201d<\/span> (Schmitt, 1990: 97)<\/span> \u3002\u5728 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u3001 \u6df7\u6c8c\u3001\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u8fdb\u653b\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u4ece\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u6240\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u9690\u55bb\u7684\u6e05\u6670\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u79d1\u5b66\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u5149\u73af\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u82cf\u8054\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca 1991 \u5e74\u6c99\u6f20\u98ce\u66b4\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\u4fe1\u606f\u5316\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86 Judith Stiehm<\/span> (2002: 6) <\/span>\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c VUCA \u4e16\u754c\u89c2<\/strong>\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3001\u590d\u6742\u548c\u6a21\u7cca<\/strong>\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u5e03\u4ec0\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u8c08\u8bba\u201c\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5374\u9884\u89c1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ca1\u6709\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u7126\u8651\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5e7f\u6cdb\u800c\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86 1980 \u5e74\u4ee3\u6218\u573a\u6218\u7565\u548c\u6218\u672f\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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VUCA\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u5373Volatility\uff08\u6613\u53d8\u6027\uff09\u3001Uncertainty\uff08\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff09\u3001Complexity\uff08\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff09\u3001Ambiguity\uff08\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\uff09\u7684\u5b57\u6bcd\u7f29\u5199<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u5728 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0cVUCA\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u519b\u4e8b\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u548c\u5404\u7ea7\u519b\u5b98\u58f0\u660e\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u5728 1980 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u62b5\u6d88\u6218\u7565\u201d\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u800c\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u4fe1\u606f\u5316\u6b66\u5668\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3aVUCA\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\u3002\u5728\u201c\u6c99\u6f20\u98ce\u66b4\u201d\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u70b8\u5f39\u201d\u3001\u5de1\u822a\u5bfc\u5f39\u548c\u9690\u5f62\u6218\u673a\u7684\u58ee\u89c2\u753b\u9762\u8ba9\u7535\u89c6\u89c2\u4f17\u60ca\u53f9\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u9707\u60ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u7684\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\uff0c\u5305\u62ecAndrew Marshall\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u8bc4\u4f30\u529e\u516c\u5ba4<\/span> (Office of Net Assessment, ONA)<\/span> \u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u30021991 \u5e74\uff0cMarshall\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u5206\u6790\u5e08Andrew Krepinevich\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u63a2\u8ba8\u9488\u5bf9\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684\u201c\u62b5\u6d88\u6218\u7565\u201d\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u662f\u5426\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u9769\u547d\u201d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u82cf\u8054\u519b\u65b9\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa 80 \u5e74\u4ee3\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002Marshall\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u300a\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u9769\u547d\uff1a\u521d\u6b65\u8bc4\u4f30\u300b<\/span>\uff08The Military- Technical Revolution: A Preliminary Assessment\uff09<\/span>\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u4eba\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0a\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u505a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ee5\u5151\u73b0\u5176\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u627f\u8bfa<\/span> (Krepinevich, 1992)<\/span>\u3002\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u4e3a20 \u4e16\u7eaa 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\u548c21\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u7684\u56fd\u9632\u8fa9\u8bba\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e86\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fa9\u8bba\u6d89\u53ca\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\u5f15\u53d1\u201c\u519b\u4e8b\u9769\u547d\u201d <\/span>(RMA) <\/span>\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u5371\u9669\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c \u5230\u4e86 1994 \u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u89c4\u5212\u8005\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u79cd\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u7f51\u7edc\u8bc4\u4f30\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7684 Krepinevich\uff0c\u4ed6\u628a\u8fd9\u573a\u9769\u547d\u63cf\u7ed8\u5f97\u597d\u50cf\u5b83\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u751f\u547d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u80fd\u5426\u201c\u8ddf\u4e0a\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u9769\u547d\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u201d\u8868\u793a\u62c5\u5fe7<\/span> (Krepinevich, 1994)<\/span> \u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6280\u672f\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53d8\u9769\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6709\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u4e16\u754c\u6311\u6218\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u671b\u963b\u6b62\u8fc5\u731b\u7684\u6280\u672f\u53d8\u9769\u6d6a\u6f6e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u552f\u4e00\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\uff0c\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u4e00\u652f\u80fd\u591f\u5feb\u901f\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u90e8\u961f\u3002\u5b9e\u73b0\u5feb\u901f\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u91c7\u7528\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\u6b66\u5668\u3001\u6218\u7565\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ed3\u6784\u6765\u8ddf\u4e0a\u519b\u4e8b\u9769\u547d\u7684\u6b65\u4f10<\/span> (Sullivan, 1995: 6-8) <\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u6210\u4e3a\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5021\u8bae\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6700\u521d\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u80fd\u591f\u8fc5\u901f\u9762\u5bf9\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u90e8\u961f\uff0c\u4f46\u5230\u4e86 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u90e8\u961f\u80fd\u591f\u800c\u4e14\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u53d6\u9884\u9632\u6027\u884c\u52a8\u6765\u63a8\u52a8\u53d8\u9769\u3001\u6539\u53d8\u590d\u6742\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u666e\u904d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u7075\u611f\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u9690\u55bb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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3. \u6765\u81ea\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6559\u8bad<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

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\u4e3b\u8981\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5173\u4e8e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u5982James Gleick\u7684\u300a\u6df7\u6c8c\uff1a\u4e00\u95e8\u65b0\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u300b<\/span>(Chaos: The Making of a New Science, 1987)<\/span> \uff0c\u5076\u5c14\u4e5f\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u6d41\u884c\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u5982Michael Crichton\u7684\u7545\u9500\u5c0f\u8bf4\u300a\u4f8f\u7f57\u7eaa\u516c\u56ed\u300b<\/span>(Jurassic Park, 1990) <\/span>\uff0c1993 \u5e74\u6210\u4e3a\u8f70\u52a8\u4e00\u65f6\u7684\u7535\u5f71<\/span> (Mazarr, 1994)<\/span>\u3002\u6c11\u95f4\u56fd\u9632\u4e13\u5bb6\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u9690\u55bb\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u3001VUCA<\/span>\uff08\u6613\u53d8\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3001\u590d\u6742\u3001\u6a21\u7cca\uff09<\/span>\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4e3a\u6839\u636e\u524d\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6539\u9769\u8fdb\u884c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u4e8b\u52a1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u201c\u519b\u4e8b\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u519b\u4e8b\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca 2003 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u5165\u4fb5\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u867d\u7136\u65e9\u671f\u4ece\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002\u57281996\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u56fd\u9632\u5927\u5b66<\/span>\uff08NDU\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8<\/span>\uff08RAND Corporation\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7279\u533a\u8d44\u52a9\u4e86 \u201c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u5168\u7403\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4f1a\u8bae\u201d<\/span>\uff08Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security Conference\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f1a\u8bae\u6c47\u96c6\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u4e8b\u52a1\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u9690\u55bb\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6c11\u95f4\u4e13\u5bb6\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u4e13\u5bb6\u30021996\u5e74\u7684NDU\u4f1a\u8bae\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u521d\u6b65\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ecb\u7ecd\u53d7\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u542f\u53d1\u548c\u8bc1\u660e\u7684\u6709\u5173\u9884\u9632\u6027\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u65b0\u751f\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4ee5\u540e\u6240\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u63d0\u4f9b\u8bd5\u91d1\u77f3\u3002\u6b64\u540e\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u4f17\u591a\u53c2\u4f1a\u4eba\u5458\u5c06\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f62\u6001\u4ea7\u751f\u6df1\u8fdc\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4f1a\u8bae\u53d1\u8a00\u8005\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5173\u5207\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u4e24\u7ec4\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u90fd\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u666e\u904d\u7279\u5f81\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u7ec4\u6210\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span> (Jervis, 1997: 21; Mann, 1997: 62-63; Maxfield, 1997: 79; Rinaldi, 1997: 115; Rosenau, 1997: 36; Schmitt, 1997: 106) <\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u4e92\u8054\u548c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u884c\u4e3a\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u201c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5177\u6709\u201c\u654f\u611f\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u8774\u8776\u6548\u5e94\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u4e2d\uff0c\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8774\u8776\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u6247\u52a8\u7fc5\u8180\uff0c\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u5f15\u53d1\u98d3\u98ce <\/span>(Jervis, 1997: 22; Mann, 1997: 62; Rosenau, 1997: 37-38; Schmitt, 1997: 107)<\/span>\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u201c\u8fdc\u79bb\u5e73\u8861\u6001\u201d\uff0c\u6c38\u8fdc\u662f\u201c\u4e9a\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001 <\/span>(Mann, 1997: 62; Maxfield, 1997: 81; Rinaldi, 1997: 115; Schmitt, 1997)<\/span>\u3002\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b <\/span>(Jervis, 1997: 23; Maxfield, 1997: 80; Schmitt, 1997: 107)<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u5f00\u653e\u7cfb\u7edf\u201d\u4e0e\u5176\u73af\u5883\u4ea4\u6362\u80fd\u91cf\u3001\u7269\u8d28\u548c\u4fe1\u606f<\/span> (Schmitt, 1997: 103)<\/span> \uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0e\u5176\u73af\u5883\u201c\u5171\u540c\u8fdb\u5316\u201d\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u73af\u5883\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u73af\u5883\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53c8\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u65b0\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u5faa\u73af\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u6216\u201c\u53cd\u9988\u201d\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u666e\u904d\u7279\u5f81<\/span> (Jervis, 1997: 24-25; Maxfield, 1997: 80; Rinaldi, 1997: 115; Rosenau, 1997: 37) <\/span>\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u548c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u81ea\u7ec4\u7ec7\u201d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u53ef\u8bc6\u522b\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u201c\u6d8c\u73b0\u201d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u7279\u5f81\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u5176\u7ec4\u6210\u4e3b\u4f53<\/span>\uff08agent\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5927\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u53ef\u80fd\u201c\u5927\u4e8e\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u548c\u201d<\/span> (Mann, 1997: 62; Maxfield, 1997: 80; Rinaldi, 1997: 115; Rosenau, 1997: 36; Schmitt, 1997: 106)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4e00\u81f4\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u5728\u5185\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5404\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u5c31\u6218\u4e89\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4f3c\u4e4e\u652f\u6301\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u9646\u519b\u548c\u6d77\u519b\u5b66\u8bf4\u7684\u5b97\u65e8\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u65e5\u76ca\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u548c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u8fc5\u901f\u91c7\u53d6\u8fdb\u653b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u9700\u8981\u30021989 \u5e74\u300a\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u624b\u518c\u300b<\/span>(Marine doctrine) <\/span>\u7684\u4f5c\u8005Major John Schmitt\u5c11\u6821\u751a\u81f3\u544a\u8bc9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u542c\u4f17\uff0c\u201c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u5c31\u662f\u6307\u6325\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u8003\u8651\u5230\u201c\u4f17\u591a\u5206\u5e03\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u3001\u5404\u81ea\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u96c6\u5408\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3b\u4f53\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u6709\u76ee\u7684\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u201d<\/span> (Schmitt, 1997: 99)<\/span>\u3002\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6559\u8bad\u662f\u201c\u6307\u6325\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e0d\u662f\u5b9e\u73b0\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8ba9\u6574\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u5931\u63a7\u201d\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u90a3\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u5177\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u3001\u521b\u9020\u6027\u3001\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u548c\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u201d<\/span>(Schmitt, 1997: 108)<\/span>\u3002\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5df1\u65b9\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u6df7\u6c8c\u4e2d\u8301\u58ee\u6210\u957f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6df7\u6c8c\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u53d7\u5230\u8ffd\u6367\u3002\u867d\u7136 1989 \u5e74\u7248\u7684\u300a\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u624b\u518c\u300b\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u63d0\u53ca\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4f46\u5728 1996 \u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u53f8\u4ee4\u7684\u547d\u4ee4\u4e0b\uff0c\u660e\u786e\u5c06\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7eb3\u5165\u300a\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u624b\u518c\u300b\uff0cSchmitt\u5c11\u6821\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9886\u5bfc\u4e86\u4fee\u8ba2\u300a\u6d77\u519b\u9646\u6218\u961f\u624b\u518c1<\/span>\uff08\u4f5c\u6218\uff09<\/span>\u300b\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u9886\u5bfc\u4e86\u4fee\u8ba2\u5176\u4e2d\u201c\u6218\u7565\u201d\u548c\u201c\u6307\u6325\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u201d\u7ae0\u8282\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0eSchmitt\u5728 1996 \u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u5927\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u76f8\u547c\u5e94\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6f14\u8bb2\u8005\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u4e3a\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u4f46\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u8005\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5229\u7528\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u4e00\u4e9b\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002\u7531\u4e3b\u4f53\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u603b\u4f53\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u7b26\u5408\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b97\u65e8\u3002\u5728\u51b7\u6218\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4e2d\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5404\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u5206\u522b\u662f\u5e73\u8861\u6216\u5931\u8861\u7684\u7ed3\u679c<\/span> (Waltz, 1959, 1979)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u6267\u884c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u540e\u679c\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u8bae\u53d1\u8a00\u8005\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5: \u4e00\u7ec4\u53d1\u8a00\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7ec4\u5219\u8868\u793a\u50b2\u6162\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e2d\uff0cRobert Jervis\u548cJames Rosenau\u90fd\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u7ed9\u4e88\u8774\u8776\u6548\u5e94\u3001\u53cd\u9988\u548c\u610f\u5916\u540e\u679c\u7684\u590d\u6742\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u5355\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002Jervis<\/span> (1997: 21) <\/span>\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u201c\u6270\u4e71\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u4e2a\u53d8\u5316\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8ba9\u59cb\u4f5c\u4fd1\u8005\u60ca\u8bb6\u201d\u3002Rosenau <\/span>(1997: 34) <\/span>\u5bf9\u6b64\u8868\u793a\u8ba4\u540c\uff0c\u5e76\u62c5\u5fc3\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u201c\u6697\u793a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u6709\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5e76\u4e14\u6700\u7ec8\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9f13\u52b1\u4eba\u4eec\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5e0c\u671b\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u80fd\u591f\u88ab\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u884c\u65e8\u5728\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6709\u6548\u653f\u7b56\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u544a\u8beb\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u8981\u8bd5\u56fe\u627e\u5230\u201c\u7b80\u5355\u5316\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u201d\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u201c\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u4e07\u7528\u7075\u836f\u201d <\/span>(Rosenau, 1997: 40-41) <\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7a7a\u519b\u4e2d\u5c06 Ervin J. Rokke\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u201c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u5bfb\u627e\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u6216\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u90a3\u5b83\u4eec\u5c31\u5b58\u5728\u201d\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8bdd\u201d <\/span>(Rokke, 1997: ii)<\/span>\u3002\u4e24\u4f4d\u6f14\u8bb2\u8005\u613f\u610f\u6ee1\u8db3\u4ed6\u4eec\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u4e0eSchmitt\u5021\u5bfc\u7684\u201c\u5728\u6df7\u6c8c\u8fb9\u7f18\u51b2\u6d6a\u201d<\/span>\uff08surfing on the edge of chaos\uff09<\/span>\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0cWayne\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6Alvin Saperstein\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98Steven Mann\u90fd\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u800c\u4e14\u5e94\u8be5\u5229\u7528\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u81ea\u7136\u800c\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u6df7\u6c8c\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u6539\u53d8\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7406\u60f3\u548c\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002Saperstein <\/span>(1997: 44-45) <\/span>\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u201c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u638c\u63e1\u4f53\u7cfb\uff1a\u80fd\u591f\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5bfc\u81f4\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6216\u907f\u514d\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\/\u5979\u5fc5\u987b\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\u5f53\u524d\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u201d\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u975e\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c06\u662f\u201c\u5e2e\u52a9\u7406\u6027\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u7406\u89e3\u8fdb\u800c\u638c\u63e1\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u638c\u63e1\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8981\u6c42\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u63a5\u53d7\u6218\u573a\u6216\u4e16\u754c\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7ed9\u5b9a\u7684\u201d <\/span>(Saperstein, 1997: 57) <\/span>\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6218\u573a\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u4f53\u7cfb\u59cb\u7ec8\u662f\u6df7\u4e71\u548c\u52a8\u6001\u7684\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u6bd4\u5229\u76ca\u4f53\u7cfb\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u5c42\u6b21\u4e0a\u5f71\u54cd\u5404\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6765\u63a8\u52a8\u53d8\u9769\u8fdb\u7a0b\u671d\u7740\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\uff1b\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u516c\u6c11\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u660e\u667a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u6743\u795e\u5723\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fb5\u72af\uff01\u201d<\/span> (Saperstein, 1997: 57)<\/span> \u3002\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u4ed6\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u201c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u9690\u55bb\u201d \u8981\u6c42\u4eba\u4eec\u59cb\u7ec8\u5728\u601d\u8003\u672a\u6765\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8003\u8651\u4e2d\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u5305\u62ec\u6539\u53d8\u52aa\u529b\u9886\u57df<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u4e16\u754c\u4f53\u7cfb\uff09<\/span>\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5<\/span> (Saperstein, 1997: 57-58)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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Steven R. Mann\uff0c\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u57c3\u514b\u68ee\u00b7\u7f8e\u5b5a\u96c6\u56e2\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u5e9c\u5173\u7cfb\u5c0f\u7ec4\u6210\u5458\u3002\u81ea1976\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u4f9b\u804c\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c2003\u5e74\u66fe\u5728\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u8054\u519b\u4e34\u65f6\u6743\u529b\u673a\u6784\u4efb\u804c\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u754c\u4e3a\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u6982\u5ff5\u9f13\u5439\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u5bf9\u4e8e Steven Mann<\/span> (1997: 68) <\/span>\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u56fd\u9645\u73af\u5883\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u201d\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\u2014\u2014\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3002Mann\u6b64\u540e\u7ee7\u7eed\u62c5\u4efb\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u8d1f\u8d23\u5357\u4e9a\u548c\u4e2d\u4e9a\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u526f\u52a9\u7406\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u51e0\u9879\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u4ed6\u544a\u8beb\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u6e05\u695a\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u4e3a\u5047\u5b9a\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u51c6\u5219\u670d\u52a1\u6240\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u201d\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u591a\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u795e\u8bdd\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5bf9\u5171\u540c\u56fd\u9645\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\u201d<\/span> (Mann, 1997: 67- 68)<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u5904\u4e8e\u4e34\u754c\u72b6\u6001\u201d\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u201c\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u90fd\u662f\u574f\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u201d\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5efa\u8bae\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4e34\u754c\u72b6\u6001\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u6467\u6bc1\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u519b\u961f\u548c\u8428\u8fbe\u59c6\u653f\u6743\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u52a0\u901f\u548c\u5229\u7528\u4e34\u754c\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6301\u5f00\u653e\u6001\u5ea6\u201d<\/span> (Mann, 1997: 67-68)<\/span>\u3002Saperstein\u548cMann\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8bae\u547c\u5e94\u4e86Schmitt\u7b49\u4eba\u5bf9\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u90e8\u961f\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff1a\u65e2\u7136\u6df7\u6c8c\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5e94\u8be5\u5bfb\u6c42\u5bf9\u5176\u4f5c\u51fa\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u5e94\u8be5\u5229\u7528\u548c\u9f13\u52b1\u6df7\u6c8c\u6765\u9020\u798f\u4e8e\u81ea\u8eab\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u7f8e\u56fd\u66f4\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5728\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\u201c\u51b2\u6d6a\u201d\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u4f1a\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5bf9\u624b\u90fd\u6709\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728 2001 \u5e74 9 \u6708 11 \u65e5\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u88ad\u51fb\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u6210\u4e3a\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3a\u4f7f\u7528\u9884\u9632\u6027\u6218\u4e89\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201d\u6539\u53d8\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u201d\u548c\u9632\u6b62\u5371\u9669\u7684\u8774\u8776\u6548\u5e94\u6269\u6563\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u8fdb\u884c\u8fa9\u62a4\uff0c\u636e\u8bf4\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6270\u52a8\u201d\u6765\u81ea\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u201c\u4e0d\u4e00\u4f53\u5316\u201d\u548c\u201c\u4e0d\u76f8\u8fde\u63a5\u201d\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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4. \u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u7b56\u7565<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u867d\u7136\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684Mann\u5bf9\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6837\u51fa\u5e2d 1996 \u5e74\u56fd\u9632\u5927\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u6d77\u519b\u4e2d\u5c06Arthur K. Cebrowski\uff0c\u5728\u5c06\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u5173\u4e8e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5e03\u4ec0\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u65b9\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u30022001 \u5e74 10 \u6708\uff0c\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u4efb\u547dCebrowski\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u529e\u516c\u5ba4<\/span>\uff08OSD\uff09<\/span>\u4e0b\u65b0\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4<\/span>\uff08Office of Force Transformation, OFT\uff09<\/span>\u4e3b\u4efb\u3002\u5728\u603b\u7edf\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u5e03\u4ec0\u66fe\u53d1\u8a93\u8981\u5c06\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u7b28\u91cd\u3001\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u4e00\u652f\u8f7b\u578b\u3001\u7075\u6d3b\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u519b\u961f\u3002\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u5c06\u662f\u6982\u5ff5\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u6240\u5728\u5730\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f7f\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u54a8\u8be2\u673a\u6784\u3002\u5728 Cebrowski \u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u7684\u201c\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u201d <\/span>(network- centric warfare, NCW)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

Arthur K. Cebrowski\uff0c1942-2005\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u4e2d\u5c06\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\uff0c2001-2005\u5e74\u62c5\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u662f\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u8f6c\u578b\u4e2d\u6ce8\u5165\u5927\u91cf\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u5ff5\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u81f3\u4eca\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u5728\u88ab\u4efb\u547d\u4e3a\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4e3b\u4efb\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u754c\u5df2\u77a5\u89c1 Cebrowski \u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u30021997 \u5e74 3 \u6708 20 \u65e5\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ee5\u6d77\u519b\u4f5c\u6218\u90e8\u957f\u7a7a\u95f4\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u6218\u3001\u6307\u6325\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u4e3b\u4efb\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u5728\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5173\u4e8e\u201c21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u6218\u573a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4f18\u52bf\u201d\u7684\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u4e0a\u4f5c\u8bc1\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8bc1\u8bcd\u662f\u6700\u65e9\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u4f18\u52bf\u201d\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86 Alvin Toffler \u548c Heidi Toffler<\/span> (1993) <\/span>\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u201d<\/span> (\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a, 1997) <\/span>\u3002Cebrowski \u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u9690\u55bb\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4fe1\u606f\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\u5b83\u5141\u8bb8\u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u5fc3\u6784\u601d\u548c\u7cbe\u786e\u5b89\u6392\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u52aa\u529b\u4ea7\u751f\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7387\uff0c\u9501\u5b9a\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u9501\u5b9a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6210\u529f\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u52aa\u529b\u201d\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u6539\u53d8\u5173\u952e\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6392\u9664\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u524d\u963b\u6b62\u5b83\u201d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u5141\u8bb8\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u53d1\u5c55\u201c\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u632b\u8d25\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u58eb\u6c14\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u589e\u52a0\u8054\u76df\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u652f\u6301\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u9884\u8a00\u201d\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u8f6f\u4ef6\u884c\u4e1a \u201c\u6025\u5267\u589e\u957f\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u518d\u6b21\u56de\u5e94<\/span>Toffler\u592b\u5987\uff08\u8bd1\u6ce8\uff1aAlvin Toffler\u4e0eHeidi Toffler\u4e3a\u592b\u59bb\uff0c\u5747\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u5b66\u5bb6\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u65b9\u5f0f\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff0c1997\u5e74) <\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u867d\u7136\u5176\u8bc1\u8bcd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u4e00\u77a5\uff0c\u4f46Cebrowski \u548c\u5408\u8457\u8005\uff0c\u7a7a\u519b\u4e0a\u5c09\u548c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08 John Garstka\uff0c\u66f4\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u9610\u8ff0\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u53d1\u8868\u5728 1998 \u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u9898\u4e3a\u201c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\uff1a\u5176\u8d77\u6e90\u548c\u672a\u6765\u201d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d<\/span> (Cebrowski & Garstka, 1998)<\/span>\u3002\u4e24\u4eba\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u50cf\u6c83\u5c14\u739b\u8fd9\u6837\u5728\u5730\u7406\u4e0a\u5206\u6563\u7684\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u91c7\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\u6765\u6539\u53d8\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u8fd0\u8425\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u56fd\u5bb6\u50cf\u5236\u9020\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e00\u6837\u5236\u9020\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u50cfToffler\u592b\u5987\u58f0\u79f0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u63a8\u52a8\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u521b\u9020\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53ea\u6709\u901a\u8fc7\u5546\u4e1a\u4e16\u754c\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u672a\u6765\u624d\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e5f\u5bf9\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u770b\u770b\u5546\u4e1a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u4ea4\u53c9\u70b9\u662f\u6700\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6216\u5316\u5b66\u7684\u7c7b\u6bd4\u6765\u5bfb\u6c42\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6559\u8bad\u65f6\uff0cCebrowski \u548c Garstka \u9996\u5148\u7740\u773c\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u5723\u83f2\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u8054\u5408\u521b\u59cb\u4ebaW\u00b7\u5e03\u8d56\u6069\u00b7\u963f\u745f\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 80 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u6700\u65e9\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00 <\/span>(Arthur, 1988) <\/span>\u3002\u5728\u65e7\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u88ab\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u51cf\u89c4\u5f8b\u6240\u652f\u914d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u963f\u745f\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u201c\u62a5\u916c\u9012\u589e\u201d\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u4e4b\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff1a\u9886\u5148\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5931\u53bb\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u589e\u52a0\u56de\u62a5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u4e00\u79cd\u6280\u672f\u2026\u2026\u51ed\u501f\u5076\u7136\u6216\u806a\u660e\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u53ef\u4ee5\u653e\u5927\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u6280\u672f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u9501\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/span>(Arthur, 1996: 100) <\/span>\u800cCebrowski \u548c Garstka <\/span>(1998)<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u8981\u6c42\u4e0e\u5728\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u5c06\u201c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u5730\u589e\u52a0\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u2026\u2026\u201d\uff0c\u9501\u5b9a\u201c\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u6218\u7565\u201d\u5e76\u9501\u5b9a\u201c\u6210\u529f\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u519b\u4e8b\u53d8\u9769\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u6620\u519b\u961f\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002Cebrowski \u548c Garstka<\/span> (1998) <\/span>\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u50cf\u519b\u961f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5fc5\u987b\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u5730\u201c\u81ea\u6211\u540c\u6b65\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8054\u7f51\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6280\u672f\u5c06\u63d0\u4f9b\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u4f18\u52bf\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5171\u4eab\u610f\u8bc6\u201d\u3002\u4e00\u652f\u77e5\u8bc6\u6e0a\u535a\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u548c\u5730\u7406\u5206\u6563\u7684\u90e8\u961f\u5c06\u5141\u8bb8\u521b\u9020\u548c\u64cd\u7eb5\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u201c\u975e\u8fde\u7eed\u201d\u6216\u201c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u201d\u7684\u201c\u6218\u573a\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u652f\u90e8\u961f\u5c06\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u201c\u6539\u53d8\u201d\u590d\u6742\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6218\u573a\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u201c\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u9501\u5b9a\u201d\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u6218\u7565<\/span> (Cebrowski, 2003a; Cebrowski & Barnett, 2003; Cebrowski & Garstka, 1998)<\/span> \u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728 20 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u6700\u540e\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u7684\u613f\u666f\u8303\u56f4\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u6218\u573a\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u63d0\u4f9b\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9 VUCA \u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5230\u4e86 2000 \u5e74\uff0cCebrowski \u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4ecd\u7136\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u4e86 VUCA \u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u5b87\u5b99\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7efc\u5408\u96c6\u6210\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u7531\u8bb8\u591a\u52a8\u6001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u6784\u6210\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u672a\u6765\u884c\u4e3a\u96be\u4ee5\u6216\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u201d<\/span>(Cebrowski\uff0c2000)<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u5217\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5224\u65ad\uff1aVUCA \u4e16\u754c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4e3a\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u519b\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u4f9d\u9760\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u9002\u5e94\u5f62\u52bf\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u201d<\/span> (Cebrowski\uff0c2000)<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u5bf9\u201c\u5b87\u5b99\u201d\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4ed6\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u8fd8\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4ed6\u5bf9\u7f8e\u519b\u5982\u4f55\u589e\u5f3a\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u3002Cebrowski <\/span>(2000) <\/span>\u63f4\u5f15\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u6559\u6388 Eric Beinhocker \u7684\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u9762\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u73af\u5883\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u519b\u961f\u5e94\u8be5\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u957f\u671f\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u672a\u6765\u53bb\u4f18\u5316\u67d0\u4e2a\u6218\u7565\u201d<\/span>(Beinhocker\uff0c1999:97)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
2001 \u5e74 9 \u6708 11 \u65e5\u7684\u88ad\u51fb\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u573a\u60b2\u5267\u610f\u5473\u7740\u201c\u8f6c\u578b\u201d\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u62bd\u8c61\u6311\u6218\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u56de\u5e94\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd 911 \u4e8b\u4ef6\u540e\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u201c\u5927\u6218\u7565\u201d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u9700\u8981\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cCebrowski \u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u63d0\u5021\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u201c\u5168\u7403\u53cd\u6050\u6218\u4e89\u201d\u4e2d\u7684\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5e2e\u52a9\u5851\u9020\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c06\u6218\u573a\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u63d0\u5347\u5230\u56fd\u5bb6\u6218\u7565\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\uff0cCebrowski \u6c42\u52a9\u4e8e\u4ed6\u7684\u670b\u53cb Thomas P.M. Barnett\u3002\u5728 Cebrowski \u62c5\u4efb\u6d77\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u957f\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8be5\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u4e00\u540d\u6559\u5458\uff0cBarnett \u7763\u5bfc\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9879\u76ee\u65e8\u5728\u201c\u5173\u4e8e\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\uff0c\u63a2\u7d22\u5168\u7403\u5316\u548c\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5174\u8d77\u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u65b0\u89c4\u5219\u96c6\u5408\u201d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u5546\u4e1a\u7f51\u7edc\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u2018\u5b89\u5168\u4fc3\u8fdb\u8005\u2019\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u89d2\u8272\u201d\u3002\u5f53 Cebrowski \u6210\u4e3a\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4e3b\u4efb\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u9080\u8bf7 Barnett \u62c5\u4efb\u4ed6\u7684\u6218\u7565\u672a\u6765\u52a9\u7406\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\uff0cBarnett\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u201c\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728 9.11 \u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\u771f\u6b63\u5177\u4f53\u5316\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u73af\u5883\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u2026\u2026\u5c06 9.11 \u4e8b\u4ef6\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f15\u7206\u70b9\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5386\u53f2\u610f\u4e49\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u201c\u5c06\u8f6c\u53d8\u5b9a\u4f4d\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u89c6\u91ce\u4e2d\u2026\u2026\u4e00\u4e2a\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u3001\u6709\u5e8f\u7684\u539f\u5219<\/span>\uff08\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\uff09<\/span>\u56fd\u9632\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u65b9\u5f0f\u201d<\/span>(Barnett, 2003a)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

Thomas P. M. Baarnett \u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u7f18\u6218\u7565\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5c06\u4e16\u754c\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u201c\u529f\u80fd\u6838\u5fc3\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u672a\u878d\u5408\u7f1d\u9699\u201d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u5411\u8fb9\u7f18\u5730\u5e26\u201c\u8f93\u51fa\u5b89\u5168\u201d\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u6574\u5408\u8fdb\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u754c\u5f71\u54cd\u5e7f\u6cdb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684 3 \u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u4e24\u4eba\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u754c\u5ba3\u4f20\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728 911 \u4e8b\u4ef6\u540e\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6218\u7565\u201d<\/span> (Barnett, 2003b)<\/span> \uff0c\u4e0a\u81f3\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u548c\u526f\u90e8\u957f\u7ea7\u522b\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6218\u7565\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6b22\u8fce\uff0c2001 \u5e74\u5230 2002 \u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u5bf9\u7b80\u62a5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5728 2002 \u5e74\u7684\u51ac\u5929\u548c 2003 \u5e74\u7684\u6625\u5929\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9Barnett\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u771f\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3aBarnett\u767b\u4e0a\u300a\u65f6\u5c1a\u5148\u751f\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u201c\u6700\u4f73\u548c\u6700\u806a\u660e\u201d\u4e13\u520a<\/span> (Chaikivsky, 2002)<\/span>\u3002\u5728 2003 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7684\u300a\u65f6\u5c1a\u5148\u751f\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5165\u4fb5\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684 18 \u5929\u524d\uff0cBarnett\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u7684\u65b0\u5730\u56fe\u300b<\/span>(The Pentagon\u2019s New Map) <\/span>\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4ed6\u5411\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5411\u8bfb\u8005\u89e3\u91ca\u2018\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u6253\u4ed7\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u6253\u4ed7\u2019 <\/span>(Barnett, 2003b; 2004: 267)<\/span>\u30022004 \u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u300a\u65f6\u5c1a\u5148\u751f\u300b \u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u6574\u7406\u6210\u4e00\u672c\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u3002\u300a\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u7684\u65b0\u5730\u56fe\u300b\u8be6\u7ec6\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4ed6\u548c Cebrowski \u5411\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
Cebrowski \u548c Barnett \u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u5c06Toffler\u5f0f\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u6280\u672f\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u548c\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u63d0\u5021\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4f20\u64ad<\/span> (Barnett & Gaffney\uff0c 2002: 10)<\/span>\u3002Barnett\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb 15 \u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u519b\u4e8b\u90e8\u7f72\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u201c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u5730\u533a\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u8fdb\u884c\u90e8\u7f72\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u6ca1\u6709\u5145\u5206\u878d\u5165\u5168\u7403\u5316\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u4e16\u754c\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u201c\u529f\u80fd\u6838\u5fc3\u201d<\/span>\uff08functioning core\uff09<\/span>\u548c \u201c\u672a\u878d\u5408\u88c2\u9699\u201d<\/span>\uff08non-integarting gap\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c06\u540e\u8005\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u53d7\u56f0\u4e8e\u5236\u9020\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u5168\u7403\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\u7684\u957f\u671f\u51b2\u7a81\u201d <\/span>(Barnett, 2003b)<\/span>\u30022002 \u5e74 3 \u6708\uff0c\u5728\u5411\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u548c\u6c83\u5c14\u00b7\u798f\u5a01\u8328<\/span>(Paul Wolfowitz\uff0c\u65f6\u4efb\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u526f\u90e8\u957f)<\/span> \u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u52a9\u624b\u4f5c\u7b80\u62a5\u65f6\uff0cBarnett<\/span> (2004: 154)<\/span> \u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\u6807\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u672a\u878d\u5408\u88c2\u9699\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u4f60\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\u8fd9\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6218\u7ebf\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u4e16\u7eaa\u7f8e\u519b\u7684\u8fdc\u5f81\u6218\u573a\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u540e\u6765\u56de\u5fc6\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u773c\u775b\u7a81\u7136\u4eae\u4e86\u8d77\u6765\u2026\u2026\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u5f20\u65b0\u5730\u56fe\u201d\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u4e00\u5957\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u65b0\u5b89\u5168\u89c4\u5219\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5176\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u4e0e\u5176\u5168\u7403\u5316\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u6210\u53cd\u6bd4\u201d\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u8131\u8282\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u5371\u9669\u201d<\/span>(Barnett, 2003b)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
Barnett <\/span>(2003b)<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u8513\u5ef6\u548c\u5411\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u5c06\u201d\u4f7f\u5404\u56fd\u76f8\u4e92\u786e\u4fdd\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u5730\u7ed3\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u957f\u671f\u51cf\u5c11\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c06\u6765\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5371\u9669\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u201c\u89c4\u5219\u96c6\u201d<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u56fd\u9645\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u89c4\u8303\uff09<\/span>\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d8\u5f97\u201c\u9519\u4f4d\u201d<\/span>(Barnett, 2004: 22) <\/span>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9519\u4f4d\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u6743\u529b\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u4ee5\u53ca\u8c01\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u884c\u4f7f\u8fd9\u79cd\u6743\u529b\u7684\u620f\u5267\u6027\u53d8\u5316\u4e0a\u3002\u56de\u987e\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u201c\u5c42\u6b21\u5206\u6790\u201d\uff0cCebrowski<\/span> (2003b) <\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u6743\u529b\u6b63\u5411\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c42\u9762<\/span>\uff08\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\uff09<\/span>\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u66b4\u529b\u5219\u5411\u4e0b\u79fb\u52a8\u5230\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u3002\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e3a\u6cbb\u7406\u7f3a\u53e3<\/span>\uff08governance gap\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9020\u6210\u8fd9\u79cd\u7f3a\u53e3\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u53ea\u662f\u8dd1\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u524d\u9762\u3002\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7f51\u7edc\u5316\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\u6280\u672f\u4f7f\u8de8\u56fd\u975e\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u88ab Cebrowski \u548c Barnett<\/span> (2003) <\/span>\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u8d85\u7ea7\u4e2a\u4f53\u201d\u548c\u88ab\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u79f0\u4e3a\u201d\u5168\u7403\u6e38\u51fb\u961f\u201d <\/span>(Robb\uff0c2007) <\/span>\u7684\u201c\u57fa\u5730\u7ec4\u7ec7\u201d \uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u201d\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c42\u9762\u201d\u884c\u4f7f\u6743\u529b\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c42\u9762\u66fe\u7ecf\u53ea\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u624d\u6709\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5168\u7403\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u8d85\u7ea7\u6743\u529b\u96c6\u56e2\u548c\u8d85\u7ea7\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u4f5c\u51fa\u4f20\u7edf\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u201c\u6cbb\u7406\u7f3a\u53e3\u201d\u3002\u7528 Cebrowski \u7684\u8bdd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u5df2\u7ecf\u201c\u8dd1\u5728\u201d\u6cbb\u7406\u4e4b\u524d\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6270\u52a8\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5373\u8774\u8776\u6548\u5e94\u2014\u2014\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7834\u574f\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u3002Cebrowski<\/span> (2003a)<\/span>\u5c06\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6270\u52a8\u201d\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5782\u76f4\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u6c34\u5e73\u6ce2\u4ece\u4e2d\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u5f53\u5b83\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u88ab\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u88ab\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5728 911 \u4e4b\u540e\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u4ed6\u548cBarnett\u8bf4\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u65f6\u5019\u8fce\u5934\u8d76\u4e0a\u4e86\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u518d\u6b21\u6210\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u5168\u7403\u53cd\u6050\u6218\u4e89\u8f93\u51fa\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e24\u4eba\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a 911 \u662f\u201c\u6cbb\u7406\u7f3a\u53e3\u201d\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5371\u9669\u7cfb\u7edf\u6270\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u4f46Barnett <\/span>(2003b) <\/span>\u4e5f\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u573a\u5408\u5c06 911 \u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4efd\u201c\u793c\u7269\u201d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u673a\u6784\u7684\u201c\u5de8\u5927\u6069\u8d50\u201d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u51e0\u5e74\u975e\u5e38\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u521b\u9020\u70b9\u201d <\/span>(Barnett & Gaffney, 2002: 1)<\/span>\u3002Barnett \u4e00\u76f4\u6279\u8bc4 VUCA \u5728 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u201c\u6307\u5bfc\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u201d\u7684\u201d\u6218\u7565\u6982\u5ff5\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u201c\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u73af\u5883\u88ab\u6df7\u4e71\u548c\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4fdd\u536b\u6240\u6709\uff0c\u62b5\u6297\u4e00\u5207\u201d <\/span>(Barnett,2004: 19-20)<\/span>\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1 911 \u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u201c\u6df7\u4e71\u201d\u548c\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u201c\u654c\u4eba\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u540e911\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u201c\u4ecd\u7136\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u63cf\u8ff0\u9700\u8981\u9632\u6b62\u7684\u53ef\u6015\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9700\u8981\u521b\u9020\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u672a\u6765\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u201c\u786e\u4fdd\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u76ee\u6807\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u77e5\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u201d <\/span>(Barnett, 2004: 2)<\/span>\u3002\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u5c06\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6218\u7565\u201d<\/span>\uff08Global Transaction Strategy\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f9d\u8d56\u65b0\u7684\u9884\u9632\u201c\u89c4\u5219\u201d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6d88\u9664\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6218\u7565<\/span>\uff08GTS\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u201c\u7f29\u5c0f\u7f3a\u53e3\u201d\u2014\u2014\u5373\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5168\u7403\u5316\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u2014\u2014 \u4ee5\u201c\u638c\u63e1\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u8361\u201d <\/span>(Cebrowski, 2003a)<\/span>\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0cBarnett <\/span>(2002: 8) <\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u52aa\u529b\u5b9e\u73b0\u5e76\u5e73\u8861\u56db\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u201c\u6d41\u52a8\u201d\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ece\u7f3a\u53e3\u6d41\u5411\u6838\u5fc3\u201d\u3002\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u80fd\u6e90\u4ece\u7f3a\u53e3\u6d41\u5411\u6838\u5fc3\u9700\u8981\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u5373\u5b89\u5168\u4ece\u6838\u5fc3\u6d41\u5411\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e2d\u4e1c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6218\u7565\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u8f93\u51fa\u5b89\u5168\u201d\u4e00\u8bcd\u6210\u4e3a\u5efa\u7acb\u201c\u57fa\u5730\u3001\u6d77\u519b\u5b58\u5728\u3001\u5371\u673a\u53cd\u5e94\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u8bad\u7ec3\u201d\u7684\u59d4\u5a49\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f7f\u7528\u9884\u9632\u6027\u6218\u4e89\u6765\u6d88\u9664\u5a01\u80c1\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u6d41\u6c13\u653f\u6743<\/span> (Barnett & Gaffney, 2002: 6)<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5c06\u5b89\u5168\u89c6\u4e3a\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u5982\u4e0b:<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u5171\u90e8\u95e8\u51fa\u53e3\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\u53ea\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5171\u5f00\u652f\u51e0\u4e4e\u5360\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5c06\u5b89\u5168\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u4ea4\u6613\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u53e3\u6d88\u8d39\u548c\u51fa\u53e3\u5b89\u5168\u3002<\/span><\/em><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u5206\u4eab\u6211\u4eec\u8fc7\u5269\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u51fa\u552e\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u624d\u80fd\u51fa\u53e3\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u786e\u5b9e\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6124\u6012\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ece\u66f4\u591a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5b83\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u611f\u6fc0\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u201c\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u5b58\u5728\u201d<\/span>\uff08living large\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5bbd\u5bb9\u3002<\/span>(Barnett & Gaffney, 2002: 3)<\/span><\/em><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
Cebrowski <\/span>(2003a) <\/span>\u56de\u5e94\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8bf4\u201c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u7f29\u5c0f\u7f3a\u53e3\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9053\u5fb7\u4e49\u52a1\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u201c\u5b89\u5168\u51fa\u53e3\u5e02\u573a\u84ec\u52c3\u53d1\u5c55\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u90a3\u4e9b\u62b5\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u53cd\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u53cd\u5bf9\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u53cd\u5bf9\u8054\u7f51\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c06\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u6280\u672f\u670d\u52a1\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u901a\u8fc7\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6218\u7565\u6765\u6539\u9020\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6218\u7565\u5c06\u5141\u8bb8\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c65\u884c\u5176\u9053\u5fb7\u4e49\u52a1\uff0c\u7f29\u5c0f\u201c\u7f3a\u53e3\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9632\u6b62\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u201c\u4e00\u652f\u7531\u62e5\u6709\u8d85\u7ea7\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u519b\u961f\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u62e5\u6709\u8d85\u7ea7\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u53d1\u52a8\u6218\u4e89\u201d\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c06\u519b\u961f\u63a8\u5411\u66f4\u52a0\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u7403\u8b66\u5bdf\u89d2\u8272\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u6d88\u9664\u505a\u574f\u4e8b\u7684\u574f\u4eba\u2019 <\/span>(Cebrowski & Barnett, 2003)<\/span>\u3002Cebrowski<\/span> (2002)<\/span>\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u59d4\u5a49\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u6765\u8868\u793a\u9884\u9632\u6027\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\uff0c\u4ed6\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e86\u7684\u519b\u961f\u5c06\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u591f\u201c\u5a01\u6151\u4ed6\u56fd\u524d\u8fdb\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u201c\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u9884\u9632\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u201d\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u5a01\u6151\u524d\u8fdb\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u6539\u53d8\u6218\u573a\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f5c\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6<\/span> (Cebrowski, 2002, 2003b)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5230 2002 \u5e74\uff0c\u8bf8\u5982\u201c\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u201d\u3001\u201c\u5f15\u7206\u70b9\u201d\u3001\u201c\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u201d\u548c\u201c\u610f\u5916\u540e\u679c\u201d\u7b49\u672f\u8bed\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u6307\u5411\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6fc0\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86 1996 \u5e74\u56fd\u9632\u5927\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a Alvin Saperstein \u548c Steven Mann \u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1Mann\u548cSaperstein\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4f53\u7cfb\u662f\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u662f\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\uff0c\u4f46Barnett<\/span> (2004: 47) <\/span>\u66f4\u52a0\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u4ed6\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u201c\u4ece\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u201c\u6df7\u6c8c\u201d\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5c31\u663e\u5f97\u6709\u5e8f\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u201dBarnett\u6ca1\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u57fa\u4e8e\u6df7\u6c8c\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u6027\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e3b\u5f20\u5229\u7528\u5168\u7403\u5316\u89c4\u5219\u96c6\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6765\u8bbe\u8ba1\u201c\u503c\u5f97\u521b\u9020\u7684\u672a\u6765\u201d\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7528Saperstein\u7684\u8bdd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u201c\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u9886\u57df\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
Cebrowski \u548c Barnett<\/span> (2003: 3) <\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u548c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u662f\u521b\u9020\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6218\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u6307\u660e\u4e86\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u5c24\u5176\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u6218\u7565<\/span> (Swofford, 2004: 4-5)<\/span>\u3002\u6839\u636e Cebrowski<\/span> (2003a) <\/span>\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u9a7b\u4f0a\u7f8e\u519b\u91c7\u7528\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u4e9a\u4e8e\u201c\u6211\u519b\u4ece\u5de5\u4e1a\u65f6\u4ee3\u5411\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u201d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\u3001\u656c\u754f\uff0c\u5e76\u51fb\u8d25\u4e86\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u654c\u4eba\u3002\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u91cd\u6f14\uff1a\u2018\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u6709\u7684\u654c\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u8fd8\u662f\u5c06\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u90fd\u80fd\u770b\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u8bf4\uff1a\u2018\u54c7\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u505a\u5230\u7684\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u4eb2\u773c\u76ee\u7779\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5230\u5e95\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u963b\u6b62\u5b83\u3002\u201d\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u540c\u6837\uff0cBarnett<\/span> (2003b) <\/span>\u5728 2003 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7f8e\u56fd\u5165\u4fb5\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u4e4b\u524d\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u4e0e\u8428\u8fbe\u59c6 \u00b7\u4faf\u8d5b\u56e0\u653f\u6743\u5728\u5df4\u683c\u8fbe\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u63a5\u89e6\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u597d\u7684\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u7528\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6218\u7565\u6765\u4e3a\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u8fa9\u62a4\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u53ea\u662f\u201c\u7f29\u5c0f\u5dee\u8ddd\u201d\u591a\u5e74\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6211\u652f\u6301\u5728\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u5f00\u6218\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u957f\u671f\u519b\u4e8b\u627f\u8bfa\u5c06\u6700\u7ec8\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u628a\u6574\u4e2a\u7f3a\u53e3\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6218\u7565\u5a01\u80c1\u73af\u5883\u6765\u5bf9\u4ed8\u3002\u4e2d\u4e1c\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5207\u5165\u70b9\u3002\u552f\u4e00\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u8fd9\u79cd\u6076\u52a3\u73af\u5883\u5e76\u4e3a\u6539\u53d8\u6253\u5f00\u95f8\u95e8\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u52bf\u529b\u4ecb\u5165\u5e76\u5168\u5929\u5019\u626e\u6f14\u5229\u7ef4\u5766\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u63a8\u7ffb\u8428\u8fbe\u59c6\u2026\u2026\u5c06\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u626e\u6f14\u6bd4\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u66f4\u5145\u5206\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u2026\u2026\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6218\u540e\u5fb7\u56fd\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u957f\u671f\u52aa\u529b\u56de\u987e\u8d77\u6765\u663e\u5f97\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u4fdd\u59c6\u90a3\u6837\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5c31\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5f00\u82b1\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u5b89\u5168\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6700\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u516c\u5171\u90e8\u95e8\u51fa\u53e3\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002<\/span>(Barnett, 2003b)<\/span><\/em><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5411\u8bfb\u8005\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u201c\u901a\u5f80\u503c\u5f97\u521b\u9020\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5341\u4e2a\u6b65\u9aa4\u201d\u7684\u201c\u5145\u6ee1\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u201d\u3002\u524d\u4e09\u6b65\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u603b\u7edf\u8ba4\u5b9a\u4e3a\u201c\u90aa\u6076\u8f74\u5fc3\u201d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u679c\u65ad\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u7ee7\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5efa\u8bae\u671d\u9c9c\u72ec\u88c1\u8005\u91d1\u6b63\u65e5\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u671d\u9c9c\u91cd\u65b0\u7edf\u4e00\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5e03\u4ec0\u603b\u7edf\u518d\u6b21\u5f53\u9009\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u201d<\/span> (Barnett, 2004: 379)<\/span>\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\u662f\u201c\u5230 2010 \u5e74\u63a8\u7ffb\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u6bdb\u62c9\u201d <\/span>(Barnett, 2004: 380)<\/span>\u3002\u7b2c\u56db\u6b65\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u62df\u8bae\u4e2d\u7684\u7f8e\u6d32\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u533a<\/span>\uff08FTAA\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6210\u529f\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u5c06\u628a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u91cd\u65b0\u5e26\u56de\u897f\u534a\u7403\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u7f8e\u6d32\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u5b9a\u5c06\u9700\u8981\u7f8e\u56fd\u627f\u8bfa\u201c\u7ed3\u675f\u8d29\u6bd2\u96c6\u56e2\u548c\u53db\u4e71\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5728\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5931\u8d25\u56fd\u5bb6\u51e0\u4e4e\u5171\u540c\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u201d\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u51b3\u5fc3\u8981\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4e00\u8def\u62e5\u62b1\u5b83\u201d <\/span>(Barnett, 2004: 380) <\/span>\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u6d4b\/\u4e3b\u5f20\u5230 2050 \u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u5341\u51e0\u4e2a\u5dde\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u201c\u7cbe\u6311\u7ec6\u9009\u897f\u534a\u7403\u6700\u597d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u201d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c<\/span>(Barnett, 2004: 382)<\/span>\u3002\u4ed6\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u5f97\u5230\u9075\u5faa\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u201c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u5c31\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u628a\u63e1\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u6d3b\u7740\u89c1\u8bc1\u8fd9\u4e00\u6210\u5c31\u3002\u201d\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u727a\u7272\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u4eba\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u672a\u6765\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5230\u6765\u3002\u201d <\/span>(Barnett, 2004: 383)<\/span>\u3002\u4f46\u5728Barnett\u201c\u5145\u6ee1\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u201d\u613f\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u59cb\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u727a\u7272\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ed6\u89e3\u91ca\u201c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u6253\u4ed7\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u6253\u4ed7\u201d <\/span>(Barnett, 2003b)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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5. \u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u5c3d\u7ba1 Cebrowski \u548c Barnett \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u4ee4\u4eba\u6050\u60e7<\/span>\uff08\u867d\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u6ed1\u7a3d\uff0c\u4f46\u5c31\u50cf\u5947\u5f02\u535a\u58eb\u4e00\u6837\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u548c\u56fd\u9632\u653f\u7b56\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u7ade\u4e89\u60c5\u62a5\u201d\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6765\u201c\u6e05\u6d17\u201d\u6709\u5173\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6740\u4f24\u6027\u6b66\u5668\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u6218\u524d\u60c5\u62a5\u4e00\u6837<\/span> (Mitchell, 2006) <\/span>\uff0c\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u552f\u4e00\u4e13\u95e8\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u673a\u6784\u201d\u201c\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e4b\u5916\u201d\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u9996\u8981\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u5728\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eb2\u81ea\u6311\u9009\u7684 Cebrowski \u9886\u5bfc\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca Cebrowski \u4eb2\u81ea\u6311\u9009\u7684 Barnett \u534f\u52a9\u4ed6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e24\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u5728911\u88ad\u51fb\u548c2003\u5e743\u6708\u5165\u4fb5\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u4e4b\u95f4\u5851\u9020\u201c\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u770b\u5f85\u654c\u4eba\u3001\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u548c\u672a\u6765\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5c3d\u7ba1\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4e8e 2006 \u5e74 10 \u6708\u5173\u95ed<\/span>\uff08\u6bd4\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u76d6\u8328(Robert Gates)\u63a5\u66ff\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u51fa\u4efb\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u8fd8\u65e9 1 \u4e2a\u6708\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u968f\u7740\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u201c\u653f\u6743\u66f4\u8fed\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u652f\u6301\u8005\u548c\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u90fd\u627f\u8ba4\uff0cCebrowski \u548c\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/span>\uff08Barnett,  2006; DiMascio, 2006\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u519b\u529b\u8f6c\u578b\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7684\u5173\u95ed\uff0c\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u7684\u79bb\u5f00\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53cd\u53db\u4e71<\/span>\uff08counterin surgency, COIN\uff09<\/span>\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u90fd\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u5bf9\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u3001\u53d8\u9769\u548c\u5e03\u4ec0\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5426\u5b9a <\/span>(Barry & Thomas, 2007; DiMascio, 2006; Gates, 2009, 2010; Sieff, 2007)<\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662 DIME \u535a\u5ba2\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u64b0\u7a3f\u4eba\u6700\u8fd1\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u4ece\u672a\u6d88\u5931\u201d <\/span>(Groh, 2010)<\/span>\u3002Cebrowski \u548c Barnett \u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u7279\u70b9\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u5a01\u80c1\u73af\u5883\u662f\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\u4ee3\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53db\u4e71\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u53cd\u53db\u4e71\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u76d6\u8328\u5b9e\u65bd\u548c\u9881\u5e03\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u9646\u519b\/\u6d77\u519b\u53cd\u53db\u8054\u5408\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u300a2010 \u56db\u5e74\u9632\u52a1\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u300b<\/span>\uff082010 Quadrennial Defense Review\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u7531\u66fe\u62c5\u4efb\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u201c\u589e\u5175\u201d\u67b6\u6784\u5e08\u548c\u6307\u6325\u5b98\u3001\u73b0\u4efb\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u201c\u589e\u5175\u201d\u6307\u6325\u5b98\u7684\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u5f7c\u5f97\u96f7\u4e4c\u65af<\/span>\uff08David Petraeus\uff09<\/span>\u5c06\u519b\u64b0\u5199\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5219\u7531\u76d6\u8328\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u64b0\u5199\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u548c\u6280\u672f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5371\u9669\u7684\u975e\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u5f97\u4ee5\u5d1b\u8d77<\/span>\uff08Department of the Army, 2006: vii; Gates, 2010: 9, 31)<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u76d6\u8328\u90e8\u957f\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u9002\u5408\u53cd\u53db\u4e71\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u65b0\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u5173\u4e8e\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u80fd\u591f\u786e\u4fdd\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u65b0\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e16\u7eaa\u201d\u7684\u613f\u666f\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u5927\u7684\u80cc\u79bb\u3002\u65b0\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u547c\u5401\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u652f\u201c\u8b66\u5bdf\u90e8\u961f\u201d <\/span>(Donnelly et al., 2000: 10-11) <\/span>\uff0cBarnett \u548c Cebrowski \u547c\u5401\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u652f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ba1\u7406\u90e8\u961f\u201d\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u8d1f\u8d23\u6e05\u7406\u653f\u6743\u66f4\u8fed\u540e\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u652f\u90e8\u961f\u4e13\u95e8\u8d1f\u8d23\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bbe<\/span>(Barnett, 2004; States News Service, 2003)<\/span>\u3002\u5177\u6709\u8bbd\u523a\u610f\u5473\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ba1\u7406\u90e8\u961f\u201d\u7684\u63d0\u8bae\u5728\u62c9\u59c6\u65af\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u591a\u5c11\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4f46\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u76d6\u8328\u9886\u5bfc\u4e0b\u7684\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86Barnett\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u5927\u51b2\u7a81\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u5c0f\u51b2\u7a81\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u5efa\u7acb\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u652f\u90e8\u961f\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u519b\u4e8b\u6539\u9769\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u6838\u5fc3<\/span>(Barnett, 2004: 302; Gates, 2009, 2010)<\/span>\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cBarnett\u8d5e\u626c\u4e86\u76d6\u8328\uff0c\u4ed6\u5199\u9053:<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4e89\u8bba\u5c06\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u7684\u6218\u7565\u89c6\u89d2\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u4ece\u5927\u51b2\u7a81\u201c\u4e0b\u8c03\u201d\u5230\u5c0f\u51b2\u7a81<\/span>\uff08\u6211\u559c\u6b22\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ba1\u7406\u201d\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u76d6\u8328\u539f\u6765\u662f\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\u6210\u4e3a\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u76d6\u8328\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u5f15\u5bfc\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5b89\u5168\u73af\u5883\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u56de\u5230\u672a\u6765\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u8fd9\u7edd\u4e0d\u662f\u653e\u5f03\u6211\u4eec\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6574\u5408\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9a6f\u670d\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u800c\u6062\u590d\u6211\u4eec\u719f\u6089\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u7bb1\u3002<\/span>(Barnett, 2009)<\/span><\/em><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u56fd\u9632\u754c\u7684\u8bed\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u8003\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u4e5f\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d1\u6325\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u300a2010\u56db\u5e74\u9632\u52a1\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u5c06\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u73af\u5883\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u8c08\u5230\u201c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\u201d <\/span>(Gates, 2010: 9,31) <\/span>\u3002\u5f7c\u5f97\u96f7\u4e4c\u65af\u5c06\u519b\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u4e3b\u8981\u987e\u95ee\u5728\u64b0\u5199\u300a\u6253\u51fb\u5168\u7403\u53db\u4e71\u300b<\/span>(killcullen, 2004, 2007) <\/span>\u4e00\u4e66\u65f6\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u5f7c\u5f97\u96f7\u4e4c\u65af\u7f16\u5199\u7684\u53cd\u53db\u4e71\u7406\u8bba\u624b\u518c\u5efa\u8bae\u201c\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u201d\u662f\u6210\u529f\u9547\u538b\u53db\u4e71\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8981\u7d20\u57fa\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u8be5\u89c2\u70b9\u65e8\u5728\u7406\u89e3\u7cfb\u7edf\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u6027\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u6574\u4f53\u6027\u201d <\/span>(Department of the Army, 2006: 4-3)<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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David Kilcullen\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u7565\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c2005-2006\u5e74\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u53cd\u6050\u534f\u8c03\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u6218\u7565\u5bb6\uff0c\u662f\u65f6\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u5f7c\u5f97\u96f7\u4e4c\u65af\u7684\u987e\u95ee\uff0c\u5176\u53cd\u53db\u4e71\u7406\u8bba\u5bc6\u5207\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5bf9\u519b\u4e8b\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528\u79d1\u6280\u9690\u55bb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e3b\u6d41\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002Bousquet<\/span> (2009) <\/span>\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u519b\u4e8b\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u7ecf\u5e38\u4ece\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u6982\u5ff5\u548c\u9690\u55bb\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5efa\u7acb\u201c\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u79e9\u5e8f\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5316\u3001\u51c6\u5907\u548c\u5b9e\u65bd\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\uff08STS\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u519b\u4e8b-\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u5173\u7cfb\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u8bdd\u8bed\u3001\u60f3\u8c61\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u51b7\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u6e17\u900f\u3002\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6218\u548c\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u6218\u7565\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u7a81\u663e\u4e86\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u7ee7\u7eed\u5145\u5f53\u9690\u55bb\u7d20\u6750\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u548c\u5408\u7406\u5316\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u519b\u4e8b\u4e0a\u4f7f\u7528\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u9690\u55bb\u5e94\u7ee7\u7eed\u6210\u4e3a\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eedEdwards\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c<\/span>(1996:41)<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u201c\u6a21\u7cca\u548c\u626d\u66f2\u5728\u6280\u672f\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e4b\u95f4\u5e38\u5e38\u5212\u5b9a\u7684\u5c16\u9510\u3001\u6574\u9f50\u7684\u754c\u9650\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u5982\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\uff0c\u6216\u6218\u4e89\u201d\u3002\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u79d1\u5b66\u9690\u55bb\u6210\u4e3a\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4fee\u8f9e\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4f7f 911 \u540e\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8bdd\u8bed\u5f97\u4ee5\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u9884\u9632\u6027\u4f7f\u7528\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u5173\u952e\u539f\u5219\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u662f\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u5bfb\u6c42\u7406\u89e3\u751a\u81f3\u9610\u660e\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bba\u8ff0\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u8005\u5904\u4e8e\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u6279\u5224\u6027\u5730\u53c2\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u4ece\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8bdd\u8bed\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6b63\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u547c\u5401\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u52a0\u5165\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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Washington, DC: National Defense University.<\/span><\/section>\n
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The Economy as an Evolving Complex System. New York: Wiley, 9\u201333.<\/span><\/section>\n
Arthur WB (1996) Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review<\/span><\/section>\n
73(4): 100\u2013109.<\/span><\/section>\n
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Barnett TPM (2003b) The Pentagon\u2019s new map. Esquire 139(3) (March): 174. Available at: www. esquire.com\/ESQ0303-MAR_WARPRIMER?click=main_sr (accessed 12 March 2011).<\/span><\/section>\n
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