{"id":36637,"date":"2022-08-19T22:26:55","date_gmt":"2022-08-19T14:26:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=36637"},"modified":"2022-08-19T22:26:55","modified_gmt":"2022-08-19T14:26:55","slug":"%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e6%bc%94%e5%8c%96%e5%8a%a8%e5%8a%9b%e5%ad%a6%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%ba%e7%b1%bb%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e5%a4%8d%e6%9d%82%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e4%b8%8d%e6%96%ad%e5%a2%9e%e5%8a%a0%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=36637","title":{"rendered":"\u793e\u4f1a\u6f14\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e3a\u4f55\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n

\u5bfc\u8bed<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u5728\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\uff08the Holocene\uff0c11700\u5e74\u524d\u4ee5\u6765\uff09\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u663e\u8457\u5730\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4e00\u4ee3\u53c8\u4e00\u4ee3\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u5bf9\u6b64\u4f5c\u51fa\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4ece\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5e7f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u89e3\u91ca\uff08broadly functionalist explanations\uff09\u5230\u5f3a\u8c03\u9636\u7ea7\u6597\u4e89\u6216\u6218\u4e89\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u7406\u8bba\uff08conflict theories\uff09\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9a\u91cf\u68c0\u9a8c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u8868\u4e8eScience Advances<\/em>\u6742\u5fd7\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u6587\u5316\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u7528\u4e8e Seshat\u5168\u7403\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5e93\uff0c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86\u4e3b\u6d41\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u768417\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u7684 100,000 \u591a\u4e2a\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u53d7\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u6216\u91c7\u7528\uff08\u6700\u663e\u8457\u7684\u662f\u516c\u5143\u524d\u4e00\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u94c1\u5236\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u9a91\u5175\uff09\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u5f3a\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5bf9\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8005\u6309\uff1aSeshat\u5168\u7403\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u7f51\u7ad9\u94fe\u63a5\u5982\u4e0b https:\/\/seshatdatabank.info\/<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff1a\u793e\u4f1a\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u4efb\u5361\u5a1c<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u7f16\u8bd1<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5218\u57f9\u6e90<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/span>| \u5ba1\u6821<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9093\u4e00\u96ea<\/span> <\/span>| <\/strong><\/span>\u7f16\u8f91<\/strong><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

 <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n

\u8bba\u6587\u9898\u76ee\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.abn3517<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n


<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\u76ee\u5f55<\/strong><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n

\u7814\u7a76\u80cc\u666f
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5-\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5-\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u6784<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u603b\u7ed3\u4e0e\u5c55\u671b<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u7814\u7a76\u80cc\u666f<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5927\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u591a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u5de8\u53d8[1-4]\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u4ea4\u6d41\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u4ece\u767e\u5343\u5230\u5341\u4ebf\u7ea7\u522b\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e866\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\uff1b\u800c\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u4e2d\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u201d<\/span>\uff08state\uff09<\/span>\u8fd9\u79cd\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1b\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u5316\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u548c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5e7f\u7684\u6587\u5316\u666e\u53ca\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u9605\u8bfb\u548c\u5199\u5b57\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u6df1\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u9636\u7ea7[5-6]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e00\u4ee3\u4ee3\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u653f\u6cbb\u5f62\u6001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u519c\u4e1a\u662f\u590d\u6742\u793e\u4f1a\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b66\u5bb6Childe[7]\u3001White[8]\u548cService[9]\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u660e\u786e\u4f53\u73b0\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u4e3a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u652f\u6301\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7cae\u98df\u751f\u4ea7\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5145\u8981\u6761\u4ef6<\/strong>[10]\uff1a\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u666e\u53ca\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u5b9a\u5c45\u6d3b\u52a8<\/span>\uff08sedentarization\uff09<\/span>\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u53ef\u50a8\u5b58\u7684\u98df\u7269\u76c8\u4f59\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u7206\u70b8\u6709\u5173\uff1b\u800c\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u76c8\u4f59\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u65e5\u76ca\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u5206\u5de5[11]\uff0c\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u4e3a\u5168\u804c\u5de5\u5320\u548c\u53d1\u660e\u5bb6\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u6280\u672f\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u589e\u957f\uff1b\u76f8\u5bf9\u9ad8\u4ea7\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e5f\u4e3a\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u548c\u7cbe\u82f1\u3001\u4e13\u804c\u5b98\u50da\u3001\u519b\u5b98\u548c\u58eb\u5175\u7b49\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u96c6\u6743\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5206\u5c42\u548c\u65e5\u76ca\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u519c\u4e1a\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u7531\u6765\u5df2\u4e45\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u53cd\u5bf9\u58f0\u97f3\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u6765\u81ea\u590d\u6742\u7684\u72e9\u730e\u91c7\u96c6\u793e\u4f1a\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u88ab\u8003\u53e4\u5b66\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u63a5\u53d7[12-13]\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5bf9\u4e8e\u89c5\u98df\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u89c4\u6a21\u6269\u5927\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6216\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u5355\u7eaf\u91c7\u96c6\u72e9\u730e\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u4e0a\u9650\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u519c\u4e1a\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u60c5\u51b5<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u519c\u4e1a\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u63a8\u52a8\u56fd\u5bb6\u5d1b\u8d77\u548c\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5219\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5206\u6b67[6,8,9,14]\u300220\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e24\u79cd\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08functionalist theories\uff09\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u7406\u8bba\uff08conflict theories\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u524d\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u6269\u5f20\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u65e5\u76ca\u5e9e\u5927\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6269\u5927\u957f\u9014\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u9700\u8981[9]\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u98ce\u9669[5]\uff0c\u6216\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u7ef4\u62a4\u704c\u6e89\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd[16]\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u5219\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5f3a\u8c03\u7531\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u9636\u7ea7\u6597\u4e89\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81[14,17]\u6216\u5916\u90e8\u6218\u4e89[18-19]\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7406\u8bba\u4e8c\u8005\u517c\u5177[20]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u8fc7\u53bb\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e00\u76f4\u53d7\u963b\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7528\u4e8e\u6355\u6349\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u3001\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5206\u8fa8\uff08diachronic\uff09\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5177\u6709\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u68c0\u9a8c\u7528\u4ee5\u5206\u6790\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u968f\u7740Seshat\u5168\u7403\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5e93[21]\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6b63\u5728\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u8ffd\u6eaf\u4e8635\u4e2a\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u7406\u533a\u57df\uff08natural geographic areas, NGAs\uff09\u5206\u5c42\u6837\u672c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5927\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e07\u5e74\u4e2d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u987a\u5e8f<\/strong>\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u8de8\u8d8a\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5927\u6d32\u768410\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u533a\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u591f\u6700\u5927\u5316\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u4e14\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u7406\u533a\u57df\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\u95f4\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u5206\u6563\u6027<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u62bd\u6837\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u5730\u6355\u6349\u4e16\u754c\u5386\u53f2\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5e2e\u52a9\u89e3\u51b3\u5185\u751f\u6027\u504f\u501a\u548c\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u89c4\u6a21\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u96be\u4ee5\u5206\u6790\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u7684[21]\u5305\u62ec373\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8d85\u8fc7100\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u5728\u516c\u5143\u524d9600\u5e74\u5230\u516c\u51431900\u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5219\u968f\u7740\u6587\u5316\u8fdb\u5316\u8bba<\/span>\uff08cultural evolution theory\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u5174\u8d77\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3[22]\uff1a\u7531\u5176\u63d0\u4f9b\u5177\u6709\u9c81\u68d2\u6027\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u6982\u5ff5\u5316\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u7684\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u6587\u5316\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8981\u7d20\u662f\u6587\u5316\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316[23-24]\u3002\u53c2\u8003\u4e86\u8fdb\u5316\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5fae\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u79cd\u7fa4\u5185\u7684\u9057\u4f20\u548c\u8868\u578b\u53d8\u5316\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316<\/span>\uff08\u5373\u7269\u79cd\u6c34\u5e73\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u533a\u5206\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u79cd\u7fa4\u5185\u6587\u5316\u53d8\u4f53\u4ea7\u751f\u9891\u7387\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>[25]\uff0c\u800c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u6574\u4e2a\u79cd\u7fa4\u6587\u5316\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>[23]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u533a\u522b\u8ba9\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u7ec4\u5408\u548c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5728\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u7ec4\u5408\u3001\u91cd\u7ec4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5-\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n
\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u65f6\u662f\u54cd\u5e94\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e92\u4f5c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u7ef4\u7eb3-\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff08Wiener-Granger causality\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u793e\u4f1a\u8fdb\u5316\u7406\u8bba\u91cd\u65b0\u7eb3\u5165\u5171\u540c\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u5206\u8fa8\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u4e92\u68c0\u9a8c\u548c\u8bc1\u6210[27-28]\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u516c\u5f0f1<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u8ba4\u7684\u3001\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u548c\u54f2\u5b66\u95ee\u9898[29]\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u5f15\u5165\u8fdb\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff08evolutionary causality\uff09<\/strong>\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u53d8\u5f97\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u56de\u5f52<\/span>\uff08Dynamic Regression, DR\uff09<\/span>\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u591f\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u5206\u8fa8\u6570\u636e\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u76ee\u6807\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\u4e0e\u6709\u5411\u65e0\u73af\u56fe<\/span>\uff08directed acyclic graphs, DAGs\uff09<\/span>\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u4e0d\u540c[30]\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u53c2\u89c1\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa\u5411Seshat\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u5141\u8bb8\u7684\u6700\u65e9\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u56de\u6eaf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4e0d\u540c\u5386\u53f2\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u591f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5730\u6765\u8865\u5145\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5168\u9762\u6027\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5730\u7406\u8303\u56f4\u548c\u6240\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\uff09\uff0c\u7a81\u51fa\u4ece\u4e2d\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u3001\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u89c1\u89e3\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5-\u6a21\u578b\u6784\u5efa<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
1. \u56e0\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/strong><\/span>
<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u63cf\u8ff0\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u2014\u2014\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\uff08Scale\uff09\uff1b\u5782\u76f4\u6216\u5c42\u7ea7\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff08Hier\uff09\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\uff08Gov\uff09<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
2. \u81ea\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e0e\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u5185\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u5b97\u6559\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e94\u5957\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf<\/strong>\u7528\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u519c\u4e1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807\u662f\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\uff08Agri\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u5355\u4f4d\u662f\u5428\u6bcf\u516c\u9877\u3002\u53c8\u7531\u4e8e\u4ece\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u661f\u661f\u4e4b\u706b\u5230\u9887\u5177\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u590d\u6742\u793e\u4f1a\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u76f8\u5f53\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694[11]\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807\u662f\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff08AgriLag\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u7528\u5e74\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u6307\u6807\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u6216\u8005\u6574\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u516c\u5171\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff08Infra\uff09<\/strong>\u76f8\u5173\u768412\u4e2aSeshat\u53d8\u91cf\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u4f9b\u6c34\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u50a8\u5b58\u573a\u6240\u3001\u9053\u8def\u3001\u6865\u6881\u3001\u8fd0\u6cb3\u3001\u6e2f\u53e3\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u90ae\u653f\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4e0e\u5426\u7b49\u3002\u6bd4\u5982Wittfogel\u7684\u6c34\u5229\u793e\u4f1a\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08hydraulic society theory\uff09<\/span>\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u704c\u6e89[16]\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7efc\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u6f14\u53d8\u548c\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u529b<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e09\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6307\u6807\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u653f\u4f53\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u5b9a\u5c45\u70b9\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff08Cap\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ecf\u5e38\u7528\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4ee3\u8868[31]\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u79cd\u7528\u4e8e\u4fc3\u8fdb\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u4ea4\u6362\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff08Market\uff09<\/strong>\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u662f\u4ea4\u6362\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027<\/strong>\uff08the sophistication of the means of exchange\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u7528\u653f\u4f53\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u79cd\u7c7b\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6574\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u6f14\u53d8\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u653f\u4f53\u5185\u90e8\u7ba1\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u6d41\u4e4b\u9700\u8981[5]\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7528\u5305\u542b13\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u6765\u4ee3\u8868\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u6765\u4ee3\u8868\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff08Info\uff09<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u589e\u52a0\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f62\u6210\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5411\u519c\u4e1a\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u201c\u538b\u529b\u68af\u5ea6\u5047\u8bf4\u201d<\/span>\uff08scalar stress hypothesis\uff09<\/span>\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6cbb\u7406\u673a\u6784\u548c\u6709\u6548\u4f20\u9012\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u6807\u8bb0\u8fdb\u5316\u6765\u534f\u8c03\u5de5\u4f5c\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u8c03\u548c\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u77db\u76fe[32-34]\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u653f\u4f53\u4eba\u53e3\uff08Pop\uff09<\/strong>\u6765\u56de\u5e94\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u57df\uff08Terr\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165\u8003\u91cf[35]\u3002\u800c\u5b97\u6559\u4fe1\u4ef0\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u5168\u77e5\u548c\u9053\u5fb7\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3001\u5bf9\u795e\u7075\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\u4e5f\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5148\u524d\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7ef4\u6301\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u4fc3\u8fdb\u7fa4\u4f53\u5728\u5171\u540c\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u7684\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u5730\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21[36-37]\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7528\u9053\u5fb7\u5316\u8d85\u81ea\u7136\u60e9\u7f5a\uff08MSP\uff09<\/strong>\u8fd9\u4e00\u7efc\u5408\u53d8\u91cf\u6765\u4ee3\u8868\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u7406\u8bba\u5f3a\u8c03\u793e\u4f1a\u9636\u5c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u529b[14,17]\uff0c\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7528\u793e\u4f1a\u5206\u5c42\uff08Class\uff09<\/strong>\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u662fPeregrine\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u8003\u53e4\u5b66\u5df2\u77e5\u793e\u4f1a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6d8c\u73b0\u5206\u5c42\u6570\u636e[39]\u3002\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u6240\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u6307\u6325\u94fe\u7684\u957f\u5ea6\uff0c\u7528\u5c42\u7ea7\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff08Hier\uff09<\/strong>\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u5be1\u5934\u653f\u6cbb\u94c1\u5f8b\u201d\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b49\u7ea7\u5236\u5ea6\u4e2d\u63a7\u5236\u548c\u6307\u6325\u7684\u5c42\u7ea7\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u5360\u636e\u6700\u9ad8\u5c42\u7ea7\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6743\u529b\u5c31\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u96c6\u6743\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u4f18\u52bf\u5730\u4f4d[40]\u3002\u5185\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u7406\u8bba\u8fd8\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u8c37\u7269\u6bd4\u6839\u830e\u4f5c\u7269\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u50a8\u5b58\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u65b0\u5174\u7684\u7cbe\u82f1\u6240\u5360\u6709\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u79ef\u7d2f\u8d22\u5bcc\u548c\u6743\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f3a\u5316\u5176\u7279\u6743[12]\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e3b\u8981\u78b3\u6c34\u5316\u5408\u7269\u6765\u6e90\u662f\u6839\u7c7b\u4f5c\u7269<\/span>\uff08\u5c71\u836f\u3001\u7518\u85af\u548c\u828b\u5934\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4e8c\u5143\u8c37\u7269\uff08Grain\uff09<\/strong>\u53d8\u91cf\u7f16\u7801\u4e3a0\uff0c\u8c37\u7c7b\u4f5c\u7269<\/span>\uff08\u5c0f\u9ea6\u3001\u6c34\u7a3b\u3001\u7389\u7c73\u3001\u5c0f\u7c73\u548c\u9ed1\u9ea6\uff09<\/span>\u5219\u7f16\u7801\u4e3a1\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5b97\u6559\u5177\u6709\u5176\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u56e2\u7ed3\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4f1a\u52a0\u5267\u793e\u4f1a\u5206\u5c42\u548c\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5728\u201c\u793e\u4f1a\u63a7\u5236\u5047\u8bf4\u201d<\/span>\uff08social control hypothesis\uff09<\/span>\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u796d<\/span>\uff08human sacrifice, HS\uff09<\/span>\u662f\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\u7cbe\u82f1\u6743\u5a01\u6765\u5de9\u56fa\u5176\u6743\u529b[41]\u2014\u2014\u7531\u4e8e\u796d\u7940\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0e\u8d85\u81ea\u7136\u751f\u7269\u6c9f\u901a\u6216\u5b89\u629a\u7684\u4eea\u5f0f\u548c\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u610f\u4e49\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u8fc7\u795e\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u6050\u5413\u6765\u6fc0\u52b1\u987a\u4ece[42]\u3002\u4eba\u796d\u4e5f\u5728\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5143\u53d8\u91cf\u91c7\u7eb3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u91c7\u53d6\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u6765\u5f3a\u52a0\u4e00\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u6dd8\u6c70\u76f8\u5bf9\u529f\u80fd\u5931\u8c03\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0d\u5584\u548c\u5185\u90e8\u4e0d\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3001\u4e2d\u592e\u96c6\u6743\u7684\u548c\u5185\u90e8\u4e13\u95e8\u673a\u6784\u7684\u653f\u6cbb[6,43 – 45]\u3002\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u53d8\u91cf\u662fSeshat\u8861\u91cf\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\uff08MilTech\uff09<\/strong>[46]\uff1a\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u590d\u6742\u7e41\u591a\u7684\u8fdb\u653b\u548c\u9632\u5fa1\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u6218\u4e89\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u4f53\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u88c5\u7532\u548c\u9632\u5fa1\u3002\u6218\u4e89\u5f3a\u5ea6\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u8003\u53e4\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u5982\u9885\u5916\u4f24\u7b49\u66b4\u529b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u6765\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u7fa4\u4f53\u95f4\u51b2\u7a81\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u751f\u5b58\u5a01\u80c1\u65f6\u52a0\u5f3a\u7fa4\u4f53\u519b\u4e8b\u51c6\u5907\u548c\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u6295\u8d44\u6c34\u5e73<\/strong>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u8865\u5145\u6750\u6599\u4e2d\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u548c\u5927\u4e8e0.9\u7684\u9ad8\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5dde\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u9664\u4e86\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9a91\u9a6c\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u6280\u672f\u3002\u4ee5Pontic-Caspian\u5927\u8349\u539f\u4e0a\u9a91\u672f\u53d1\u660e\u4e0e\u94c1\u7684\u51b6\u91d1\u6280\u672f\u4e4b\u7ed3\u5408\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u548c\u76d4\u7532\u4e5f\u5c31\u5f97\u4ee5\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u638c\u63e1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6280\u672f\u4f7f\u5f97\u519b\u961f\u66f4\u52a0\u6240\u5411\u62ab\u9761\uff0c\u4ece\u5927\u8349\u539f\u5357\u90e8\u8513\u5ef6\u5230\u519c\u8015\u793e\u4f1a\u5730\u5e26\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u80fd\u591f\u5f62\u6210\u8d85\u7ea7\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00[47]\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0c\u94c1\u5236\u5de5\u5177\u4e5f\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u653f\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u4e5f\u5c31\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u4e86\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u5f15\u5165\u6570\u636e[48-49]\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u2014\u2014\u94c1\u9a91\u5175\uff08IronCav\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u51b6\u94c1\u548c\u9a91\u5175\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5173\u952e\u6280\u672f\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u60c5\u51b5<\/strong>\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u94c1\u9a91\u5175\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u6b27\u4e9a\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u786e\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u53d8\u91cf\u4fa7\u91cd\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
3. \u6a21\u578b\u9009\u62e9\u4e0e\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/strong><\/span>
<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5404\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u540e\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u7a77\u4e3e\u641c\u7d22\u8fdb\u884c\u6a21\u578b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u7ebf\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0a\u56de\u5f52\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u9664\u4e8617\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u7d20\u5916\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8fd8\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u548c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u9879\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86\u5927\u4e8e100,000\u4e2a\u7279\u6b8a\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u91c7\u7528\u8d64\u6c60\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u51c6\u5219\uff08Akaike information criterion, AIC\uff0c<\/strong>\u65e5\u672c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8d64\u6c60\u5f18\u6b21\u521b\u7acb\uff09<\/strong>\u5bf9\u62df\u5408\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u91cf\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u5bf9\u62df\u5408\u7cfb\u6570\u8fc7\u591a\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u60e9\u7f5a\u3002\u5728\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u52a0\u5165\u4e8c\u6b21\u9879\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u6548\u5e94<\/strong>\u3002\u5bf9\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6807\u51c6\u8bca\u65ad\u8bd5\u9a8c[<\/strong>50]\u3002\u4e3a\u68c0\u67e5\u4ea4\u53c9\u65b9\u7a0b\u8bef\u5dee\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u62df\u5408\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u201d\uff08seemingly unrelated regression\uff09<\/strong>[51]\u3002\u7f3a\u5931\u7684\u6570\u636e\u503c\u3001\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e13\u5bb6\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0a\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u5747\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u91cd\u4f30\u7b97\u5904\u7406<\/strong>[52-53]\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8bca\u65ad\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8868\u660e\u6b8b\u5dee\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u662f\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u53c2\u6570\u81ea\u4e3e<\/strong>\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0e\u5404\u79cd\u56de\u5f52\u9879\u76f8\u5173\u7684P\u503c\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u5747\u53c2\u89c1\u8bba\u6587\u65b9\u6cd5\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n
\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e24\u7c7b\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u519c\u4e1a<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e09\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u53d8\u91cf\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6700\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u662f\u94c1\u9a91\u5175\u53d8\u91cf\uff08IronCov\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8868\u5f81\u9a91\u5175\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u94c1\u51b6\u91d1\u7684\u8054\u5408\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u80fd\u591f\u53cd\u6620\u6218\u4e89\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u53cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf\u6709\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\u3002\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\uff08Agri\uff09\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff08AgriLag\uff09\u4e5f\u88ab\u9009\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50<\/strong>\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u5728\u5185\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u652f\u6301\u6709\u591a\u5f3a\uff1f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u662f\u4e0e\u519c\u4e1a+\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3aSeshat\u9879\u76ee\u5df2\u7ecf\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u6765\u6982\u5ff5\u5316\u548c\u7f16\u7801\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u66ff\u4ee3\u6a21\u578bdelAIC\u7684AIC\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u6765\u6bd4\u8f83\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u6700\u4f73\u652f\u6301\u6a21\u578b\u7684AIC\u6bd4\u66ff\u4ee3\u6a21\u578b\u7684AIC\u4f4e10\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u66ff\u4ee3\u6a21\u578b\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u652f\u6301[54]\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u519c\u4e1a+\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u6a21\u578b\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u66ff\u4ee3\u6a21\u578bdelAIC\u572823.19\u523062.65\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf<\/span>\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u8bba\u6587\u8865\u5145\u6750\u6599\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u4ee3\u7406\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u201d\uff09<\/span>\u3002AIC\u4e2d\u5982\u6b64\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u662f\u53cd\u5bf9\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u529b\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u57fa\u4e8e\u6587\u5316\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u516c\u5f0f1\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f7f\u5f97\u5206\u79bb\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u80fd\u591f\u7528\u4e8e\u533a\u5206\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5982\u56fe1\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u5b9a\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u7ed8\u5236\u4e09\u79cd\u53cd\u5e94\u63aa\u65bd\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u540c\u6b65\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e0e\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u53d8\u91cf\u5355\u72ec\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e0d\u5f3a\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u4e0e\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\u4e00\u8d77\u7eb3\u5165DR\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u5219\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4e09\u79cd\u54cd\u5e94\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u62df\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u7cfb\u6570\u5747\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0cR2<\/sup>\u8303\u56f4\u4e3a0.89 ~ 0.92\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0ck\u6298\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5916\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u540c\u6837\u9ad8\u7684\u9884\u6d4bR2 <\/sup><\/span>(\u56fe1)<\/span>\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u653f\u4f53\u95f4\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u662f\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u679c\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u89e3\u91ca<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe1\uff1a\u533a\u5206\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u56fe\u8868\u793a\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\uff08Scale, Hier\u548cGov\uff0c\u5373\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u5c42\u7ea7\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\uff09\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540c\u6b65\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u95f4\u8868\u793a\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u5c42\u7ea7\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\uff09\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540c\u6b65\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0b\u56fe\u5229\u7528\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6ede\u540e\u5ea6\u91cf\u7684DR\u901a\u8fc7k\u6298\u4ea4\u53c9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5916\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u80cc\u666f\u8272\u8868\u793a\u6570\u636e\u70b9\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u8868\u793a\u5bc6\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u3002\u865a\u7ebf\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u56de\u5f52\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u867d\u7136\u7814\u7a76\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e8617\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u8d85\u8fc7100,000\u4e2a\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u56fe2\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u51e0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u5730\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5355\u5411\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u5bfc\u81f4\u6218\u4e89\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6d4b\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\u56e0\u679c\u72ec\u7acb\u5206\u6790[46]\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u4ee5\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5e76\u65e0\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u4e0d\u53d7\u9886\u571f\u6216\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u6cbb\u7406\u6216\u884c\u653f\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7b49\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u6cbb\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u662f\u7531\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u6280\u672f\u9769\u547d\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u9a91\u5175\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u94c1\u51b6\u91d1\u6280\u672f\uff09\u3001\u603b\u4f53\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u975e\u6d32-\u6b27\u4e9a\u5927\u9646\u4e3b\u8981\u4ea4\u901a\u8def\u7ebf\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u9ad8\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u6240\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u65b9\u9762\u626e\u6f14\u7740\u5916\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u89d2\u8272<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8fdb\u6b65\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u4ee5\u524d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe2\uff1a\u63d0\u51fa\u5f71\u54cd\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7f51\u7edc\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7bad\u5934\u7684\u7c97\u7ec6\u8868\u793a\u6548\u679c\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3002\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u653f\u6cbb\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5230\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7bad\u5934\u662f\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u2192\u519c\u4e1a\u6548\u5e94\u8c03\u8282\u7684\u3002\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7bad\u5934\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u4e2a\u663e\u5f0f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\u5b83\u7684\u5f62\u5f0fXt<\/sub>\u2192Yt+1<\/sub>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u518d\u6765\u770b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u6218\u4e89\u53d8\u91cf\u2014\u2014\u94c1\u9a91\u5175\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5355\u5411\u7684\u3001\u975e\u76f8\u4e92\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u66f4\u52a0\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9a91\u5175\u6218\u4e89\u800c\u8a00\u3002\u9a91\u5175\u6218\u4e89\u53ea\u5728\u8349\u539f\u8d77\u6e90\u8fc7\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u5230\u4e9a\u975e\u6b27\u5927\u9646\u7684\u6700\u8fdc\u7aef\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u5730\u533a\u90fd\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u5e1d\u56fd\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u7aed\u5c3d\u5168\u529b\u786e\u4fdd\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9a91\u5175\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u9a6c\u5339\u4f9b\u5e94\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9a91\u5175\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u6218\u4e89\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5916\u751f\u6307\u6807\uff0c<\/strong>\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u53cd\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/span>\uff08\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5230\u6218\u4e89\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5219\u8f83\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5<\/strong>\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6cbb\u7406\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u4e5f\u6709\u79ef\u6781\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6cbb\u7406\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u4e5f\u662f\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff08AgriLag\uff09\u4e5f\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5916\u751f\u53d8\u91cf<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u5f0f\u5411\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u901a\u5e38\u6bd4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u65e9\u51e0\u767e\u751a\u81f3\u51e0\u5343\u5e74\u3002\u5982\u56fe3\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u4ece\u53d1\u5c55\u519c\u4e1a\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6ede\u540e\u65f6\u95f4\u5927\u7ea6\u662f2000\u5e74<\/strong>\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e35\u4e2aSeshat\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u5386\u53f2\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u57fa\u4e8eArchaeoGLOBE\u9879\u76ee[55]\u5b9a\u4e49\u533a\u57df\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u56fe3\u4e5f\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u519c\u4e1a\u662f\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u793e\u4f1a\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u975e\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6<\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u516c\u5143\u524d500\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u519c\u4e1a\u5f88\u666e\u904d\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5730\u533a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u670923%\u672a\u80fd\u5728\u516c\u51431500\u5e74\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u6210\u4e3a\u5177\u6709\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u653f\u4f53\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe3\uff1a\u4ece\u91c7\u7528\u519c\u4e1a\u5230\u5b8f\u89c2\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6ede\u540e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5b8f\u89c2\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u6307\u63a7\u5236\u9886\u571f\u81f3\u5c1110\u4e07\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8be5\u6837\u672c\u6765\u81ea\u5168\u740388\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u6587\u5316\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u5728\u516c\u5143\u524d500\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u666e\u53ca\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u57281500\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u6b96\u6c11\u4e4b\u524d\uff09\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u56fd\u5bb6\u88ab\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u3002\u4e28<\/span>\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u519c\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55[55]\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u56fd\u5bb6[63]\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n
\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6f14\u5316<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u8003\u53e4\u5b66\u5bb6\u5df2\u7ecf\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u6587\u5316\u6f14\u53d8\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e10\u8fdb\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5176\u95f4\u7a7f\u63d2\u7740\u957f\u671f\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u751f\u7269\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u95f4\u65ad\u5e73\u8861\u201d\uff08punctuated equilibrium\uff09<\/strong>[57]\u3002\u5982\u56fe4\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5e73\u5747\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728Seshat\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u53d6\u5f53\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6700\u5927\u653f\u4f53\uff0c\u53d6\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u7ed3\u8bba\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u5728\u516c\u5143\u524d\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u5343\u5e74\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u516c\u5143\u524d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5343\u5e74\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\uff1b\u5728\u516c\u5143\u524d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u9636\u6bb5\u540e\uff0c\u662f\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u76841500\u5e74\u660e\u663e\u56f4\u7ed5\u7740\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4ece\u516c\u5143\u524d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u505c\u6ede\u7a81\u53d8\u5230\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u8981\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u516c\u5143\u524d1000\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u6b27\u4e9a\u5927\u9646\u7684\u94c1\u5668\u548c\u9a91\u5175\u7684\u5f15\u5165\u4ee5\u53ca\u968f\u540e\u5728\u4e9a\u975e\u6b27\u5927\u9646\u4e0a\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u89e3\u91ca\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u516c\u5f0f1\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u5b9a\u91cf\u5730\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u5728\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u516c\u5f0f2\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/span><\/section>\n
  <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5176\u4e2d\u03b5t<\/sub>\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u4e86\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u2014\u2014\u94c1\u9a91\u5175\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u56de\u5f52\u7cfb\u6570\u6700\u5927\uff0ct\u503c\u6700\u5927\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u8fd0\u884c\u94c1\u9a91\u5175 = 0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7a81\u7136\u5207\u6362\u5230\u94c1\u9a91\u5175 = 2\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u51b6\u94c1\u548c\u9a91\u5175\u8054\u5408\u5230\u8fbe\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4f46\u5141\u8bb8\u519c\u4e1a\u5386\u53f2\u589e\u52a0<\/span>\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u65f6\u95f40\u91c7\u7528\u519c\u4e1a\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5728\u8865\u5145\u56fe5\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u516c\u5f0f2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8f68\u8ff9\u5c06\u8d8b\u4e8e\u589e\u52a0\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u53c2\u6570\u8bbe\u5b9a\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7531\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7a33\u6001\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c06\u89c2\u6d4b\u5230\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u52a8\u6001\u4e0e\u516c\u5f0f2\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8fdb\u884c\u76f4\u63a5\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5bf9\u5176\u8f68\u8ff9\u8fdb\u884c\u91c7\u6837\u3002\u7531\u56fe4B\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u94c1\u9a91\u5175\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56f4\u7ed5\u65b0\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u518d\u73b0\u4e86\u201c\u95f4\u65ad\u5e73\u8861\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u5c06\u5176\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u7531\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u91cf\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u5747\u8861\u5468\u56f4\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u9009\u62e9\u6216\u8bb8\u66f4\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u8fd8\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u519c\u4e1a\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5747\u8861\u6c34\u5e73\u4f1a\u4ee5\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
<\/section>\n

\u56fe4\uff1a\u5bf9\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u5927\u653f\u4f53\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56feA\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u4e86\u516c\u5143\u524d3500\u5e74\u52301500\u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u653f\u4f53\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56feB\u5219\u662f\u5047\u8bbe\u94c1\u9a91\u5175\u53d8\u91cf\u5728t = 30\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7531\u516c\u5f0f2\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

(A)\u548c(B)\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b9e\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e3a\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u9634\u5f71\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e3a\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u00b1SD\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7eb5\u8f74\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff08Scale\uff09\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u5bf9\u6570\u8f6c\u6362\u540e\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u9886\u571f\u548c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u805a\u843d\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u672a\u8f6c\u5316\u91cf\u768410\u500d\u589e\u957f\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
<\/svg><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n

\u603b\u7ed3\u4e0e\u5c55\u671b<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/h3>\n

<\/section>\n
\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7814\u7a76\u5386\u53f2\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u901a\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u52a8\u529b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u548c\u66ff\u4ee3\u56e0\u679c\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u7edf\u8ba1\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f7f\u5f97\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u5355\u4e00\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u5b9a\u91cf\u5730\u6bd4\u8f83\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u7406\u8bba\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u66f4\u7ec6\u81f4\u548c\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5960\u5b9a\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u589e\u957f\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u975e\u5145\u5206\u7684\uff1b\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u4e0e\u529f\u80fd\u4e3b\u4e49\u6216\u5185\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u7406\u8bba\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff1b\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u529b<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9610\u660e\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u9769\u547d[63]\u3001\u519c\u4e1a[64]\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u53e4\u4ee3\u548c\u4e2d\u4e16\u7eaa\u65f6\u671f\u4ee5\u53ca\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u63a8\u52a8\u4e9a\u975e\u6b27\u5927\u9646\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u6269\u6563\u548c\u5747\u8861\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/strong>\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7b80\u5316\u5904\u7406<\/strong>\uff0c\u8bf8\u5982\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u4ea4\u6362\u4ee5\u53ca\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u53d1\u5c55\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u770b\u4f3c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u968f\u540e\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u7b49\u7ea7\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6216\u6cbb\u7406\u590d\u6742\u6027\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u652f\u6301\u548c\u7ef4\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u589e\u957f\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fc7\u5f80\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u671f\u671b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u989d\u5916\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5206\u8fa8\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6765\u6f84\u6e05\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u5426\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u6216\u7a33\u5b9a\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong>\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u5168\u65b0\u4e16\u65f6\u671f\u8d77\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u518535\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6837\u672c\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u76ee\u524d\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e2d\u77f3\u5668\u65f6\u4ee3\u6e14\u4e1a\u793e\u4f1a<\/strong>\u7684\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e5f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u3001\u5206\u5c42\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u5728Seshat\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u6dfb\u52a0\u5317\u7f8e\u897f\u6d77\u5cb8\u548c\u897f\u5317\u6d77\u5cb8\u3001\u79d8\u9c81\u3001\u671d\u9c9c\u6809\u6587\u548c\u6ce2\u7f57\u7684\u6d77\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u5730\u533a<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e0c\u671b\u5bf9\u975e\u6d32\u3001\u5317\u7f8e\u548c\u5357\u7f8e\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u62bd\u6837\uff08Seshat\u9879\u76ee\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c06\u8986\u76d6\u8303\u56f4\u6269\u5927\u5230\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u4ee5\u5357\u975e\u6d32\uff09\u3002\u672a\u6765\u6269\u5927Seshat\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u7684\u5730\u7406\u8303\u56f4\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u6df1\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u586b\u8865\u5df2\u7ecf\u6db5\u76d6\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5386\u53f2\u7a7a\u767d\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6539\u5199\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong>\u3002\u968f\u7740Seshat\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u66f4\u591a\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u590d\u6742\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u89e3\u91ca\u4ecd\u7136\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u91cf\u5316\u6570\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u5730\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6587\u5316\u5b8f\u89c2\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u91ca\u653e\u5386\u53f2\u4f5c\u4e3a\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n

\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
1. R. H. McGuire, Breaking down cultural complexity: Inequality and heterogeneity. <\/span>Adv. Archeol. Method Theory 6, 91\u2013142 (1983).<\/span><\/section>\n
2. G. Chick, Cultural complexity: The concept and its measurement. Cross-Cult. Res. 31, <\/span>275\u2013307 (1997).<\/span><\/section>\n
3. G. M. Feinman, in Cooperation and Collective Action: Archaeological Perspectives, <\/span>D. M. Carballo, Ed. (University of Colorado Press, 2013), pp. 299\u2013307.<\/span><\/section>\n
4. P. Turchin, T. E. Currie, H. Whitehouse, P. Fran\u00e7ois, K. Feeney, D. Mullins, D. Hoyer, <\/span>C. Collins, S. Grohmann, P. Savage, G. Mendel-Gleason, E. Turner, A. Dupeyron, E. Cioni, <\/span>J. Reddish, J. Levine, G. Jordan, E. Brandl, A. Williams, R. Cesaretti, M. Krueger, <\/span>A. Ceccarelli, J. Figliulo-Rosswurm, P. J. Tuan, P. Peregrine, A. Marciniak, J. Preiser-Kapeller, <\/span>N. Kradin, A. Korotayev, A. Palmisano, D. Baker, J. Bidmead, P. Bol, D. Christian, C. Cook, <\/span>A. Covey, G. Feinman, \u00c1. D. J\u00fal\u00edusson, A. Kristinsson, J. Miksic, R. Mostern, C. Petrie, <\/span>P. Rudiak-Gould, B. ter Haar, V. Wallace, V. Mair, L. Xie, J. Baines, E. Bridges, J. Manning, <\/span>B. Lockhart, A. Bogaard, C. Spencer, Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single <\/span>dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization.  <\/span>Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115, e144\u2013e151 (2018).<\/span><\/section>\n
5. A. W. Johnson, T. Earle, The Evolution of Human Societies: From Foraging Group to Agrarian <\/span>State (Stanford Univ. Press, ed. 2, 2000).<\/span><\/section>\n
6. K. Flannery, J. Marcus, The Creation of Inequality: How Our Prehistoric Ancestors Set the  <\/span>Stage for Monarchy, Slavery, and Empire (Harvard Univ. Press, 2012).<\/span><\/section>\n
7. V. G. Childe, Man Makes Himself (Watts & Company, 1936).<\/span><\/section>\n
8. L. A. White, The Evolution of Culture (McGraw-Hill, 1959).<\/span><\/section>\n
9. E. R. Service, Origins of the State and Civilization: The Process of Cultural Evolution (Norton, <\/span>1975).<\/span><\/section>\n
10. J. Diamond, Evolution, consequences and future of plant and animal domestication. <\/span>Nature 418, 700\u2013707 (2002).<\/span><\/section>\n
11. O. Borcan, O. Olsson, L. Putterman, Transition to agriculture and first state presence: <\/span>A global analysis. Explor. Econ. Hist. 82, 101404 (2021).<\/span><\/section>\n
12. J. C. Scott, Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States (Yale Univ. Press, 2017).<\/span><\/section>\n
13. D. Graeber, D. Wengrow, The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity. (Farrar, <\/span>Straus and Giroux, 2021).<\/span><\/section>\n
14. M. H. Fried, The Evolution of Political Society: An Essay in Political Anthropology (Random <\/span>House, 1967).<\/span><\/section>\n
15. P. V. Kirch, How Chiefs Became Kings: Divine Kingship and the Rise of Archaic States in   <\/span>Ancient Hawai’i (University of California Press, 2010).<\/span><\/section>\n
16. K. A. Wittfogel, Oriental Despotism: A Comparative Study of Total Power (Oxford Univ. <\/span>Press, 1957).<\/span><\/section>\n
17. R. D. Drennan, in Chiefdoms in the Americas, R. D. Drennan, C. A. Uribe, Eds. (University <\/span>Press of America, 1987).<\/span><\/section>\n
18. F. Oppenheimer, The State; Its History and Development Viewed Sociologically (Free Life <\/span>Editions, 1975).<\/span><\/section>\n
19. R. L. Carneiro, A theory of the origin of the state. Science 169, 733\u2013738 (1970).<\/span><\/section>\n
20. M. Mann, The Sources of Social Power. I. A History of Power From the Beginning to A.D. 1760 <\/span>(Cambridge Univ. Press, 1986).<\/span><\/section>\n
21. P. Turchin, D. Hoyer, J. Bennett, K. Basava, E. Cioni, K. Feeney, P. Francois, S. Holder, <\/span>J. Levine, S. Nugent, J. Reddish, C. Thorpe, S. Wiltshire, H. Whitehouse, The Equinox2020 <\/span>seshat data release. Cliodynamics 11, 41\u201350 (2020).<\/span><\/section>\n
22. P. J. Richerson, M. H. Christiansen, Cultural Evolution: Society, Technology, Language, and <\/span>Religion (Str\u00fcngmann Forum Reports) (MIT Press, 2013).<\/span><\/section>\n
23. N. Eldredge, Macroevolution in Human Prehistory, A. Prentiss, I. Kuijt, J. C. Chatters, Eds. <\/span>(Springer, 2009).<\/span><\/section>\n
24. A. Mesoudi, Cultural Evolution: How Darwinian Theory Can Explain Human Culture and   <\/span>Synthesize the Social Sciences (Chicago Univ. Press, 2011).<\/span><\/section>\n
25. L. L. Cavalli-Sforza, M. W. Feldman, Cultural Transmission and Evolution: A Quantitative   <\/span>Approach (Princeton Univ. Press, 1981).<\/span><\/section>\n
26. J. M. Beaulieu, D.-C. Jhwueng, C. Boettiger, B. C. O\u2019Meara, Modeling stabilizing selection: <\/span>Expanding theOrnstein\u2013Uhlenbeck model of adaptive evolution. Evolution 66, <\/span>2369\u20132383 (2012).<\/span><\/section>\n
27. N. Wiener, The theory of prediction, in ModernMathematics for Engineers, E. Beckenbath, <\/span>Ed. (McGraw-Hill, 1956).<\/span><\/section>\n
28. C. W. J. Granger, Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral <\/span>methods. Econometrica 37, 424\u2013438 (1969).<\/span><\/section>\n
29. M. Bunge, Causality and Modern Science: Third Revised Edition (Dover, 1979).<\/span><\/section>\n
30. J. Pearl, Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference (Cambridge Univ. Press, ed. 2, 2009).<\/span><\/section>\n
31. N. Nunn, Historical Developement, in Handbook of Economic Growth (Elsevier, 2014), <\/span>vol. 2A, pp. 347\u2013402.<\/span>Version:0.9 StartHTML:0000000105 EndHTML:0000020896 StartFragment:0000000141 EndFragment:0000020856   <\/span><\/section>\n
32. G. A. Johnson, Organizational structure and scalar stress, in Theory and Ecplanation in   <\/span>Archaeology, C. Renfrew, M. Rowlands, B. A. Segraves-Whallon, Eds. (Academic Press, <\/span>1982), pp. 389\u2013421.<\/span><\/section>\n
33. S. Gavrilets, A. Vose, The dynamics of Machiavellian intelligence. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103, <\/span>16823\u201316828 (2006).<\/span><\/section>\n
34. R. I. M. Dunbar, S. Shultz, Evolution in the social brain. Science 317, 1344\u20131347 (2007).<\/span><\/section>\n
35. C. S. Spencer, Territorial expansion and primary state formation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.   <\/span>U.S.A. 107, 7119\u20137126 (2010).<\/span><\/section>\n
36. G. E. Swanson, The Birth of the Gods: The Origin of Primitive Beliefs (University of Michigan <\/span>Press, 1960).<\/span><\/section>\n
37. A. Norenzayan, A. F. Shariff, W. M. Gervais, A. K. Willard, R. A. McNamara, E. Slingerland, <\/span>J. Henrich, The cultural evolution of prosocial religions. Behav. Brain Sci. 39, e1 (2016).<\/span><\/section>\n
38. P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse, J. Larson, E. Cioni, J. Reddish, D. Hoyer, P. E. Savage, R. Alan <\/span>Covey, J. Baines, M. Altaweel, E. Anderson, P. K. Bol, E. Brandl, D. Carballo, G. Feinman, <\/span>A. Korotayev, N. Kradin, J. Levine, S. Nugent, A. Squitieri, V. Wallace, P. Fran\u00e7ois, <\/span>Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the <\/span>Seshat Databank. SocArXiv Preprint (2021); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31235\/osf.io\/2v59j.<\/span><\/section>\n
39. P. N. Peregrine, Atlas of cultural evolution. World Cultures 14, 2\u201388 (2003).<\/span><\/section>\n
40. R. Michels, Political Parties: A Sociological Study of The Oligarchical Tendencies of Modern <\/span>Democracy (Hearst\u2019s International Library, 1915).<\/span><\/section>\n
41. J. Watts, O. Sheehan, Q. D. Atkinson, J. Bulbulia, R. D. Gray, Ritual human sacrifice <\/span>promoted and sustained the evolution ofstratified societies. Nature 532, 228\u2013231 (2016).<\/span><\/section>\n
42. B. G. Trigger, Understanding Early Civilizations (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).<\/span><\/section>\n
43. P. Turchin, A theory for formation of large empires. J. Global Hist. 4, 191\u2013217 (2009).<\/span><\/section>\n
44. E. M. Redmond, C. S. Spencer, Chiefdoms at the threshold: The competitive origins <\/span>of the primary state. J. Anthropol. Archaeol. 31, 22\u201337 (2012).<\/span><\/section>\n
45. G. M. Feinman, D. M. Carballo, Collaborative and competitive strategies in the variability <\/span>and resiliency of large-scale societies in Mesoamerica. Econ. Anthropol. 5, 7\u201319 (2018).<\/span><\/section>\n
46. P. Turchin, D. Hoyer, A. Korotayev, N. Kradin, S. Nefedov, G. Feinman, J. Levine, J. Reddish, <\/span>E. Cioni, C. Thorpe, J. S. Bennett, P. Francois, H. Whitehouse, Rise of the war machines: <\/span>Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial <\/span>Revolution. PLOS ONE 16, e0258161 (2021).<\/span><\/section>\n
47. P. Turchin, Ultrasociety: How 10, 000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators <\/span>on Earth (Beresta Books, 2016).<\/span><\/section>\n
48. P. Turchin, T. E. Currie, E. A. L. Turner, Mapping the spread of mounted warfare. <\/span>Cliodynamics 7, 217\u2013227 (2016).<\/span><\/section>\n
49. E. A. L. Turner, Discovering the anvil age: A map of the spread of Iron metallurgy across <\/span>Afro-Eurasia. Cliodynamics 11, 21\u201340 (2020).<\/span><\/section>\n
50. P. Turchin, Fitting dynamic regression models to seshat data. Cliodynamics 9, 25\u201358 (2018).<\/span><\/section>\n
51. W. H. Greene, Econometric Analysis (Pearson Education, ed. 5, 2005).<\/span><\/section>\n
52. D. B. Rubin, Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys (Wiley, 1987).<\/span><\/section>\n
53. Y. C. Yuan, Multiple Imputation for Missing Data: Concepts and New Development (Version 9.0) <\/span>(SAS Institute, 2011).<\/span><\/section>\n
54. K. P. Burnham, D. R. Anderson, Model Selection and Inference: A Practical Information? <\/span>Theoretic Approach (Springer, 1998).<\/span><\/section>\n
55. L. Stephens, D. Fuller, N. Boivin, T. Rick, N. Gauthier, A. Kay, B. Marwick, C. G. Armstrong, <\/span>C. M. Barton, T. Denham, K. Douglass, J. Driver, L. Janz, P. Roberts, J. D. Rogers, H. Thakar, <\/span>M. Altaweel, A. L. Johnson, M. M. Sampietro Vattuone, M. Aldenderfer, S. Archila, G. Artioli, <\/span>M. T. Bale, T. Beach, F. Borrell, T. Braje, P. I. Buckland, N. G. Jim\u00e9nez Cano, J. M. Capriles, <\/span>A. Diez Castillo, \u00c7. \u00c7ilingiro\u011flu, M. Negus Cleary, J. Conolly, P. R. Coutros, R. A. Covey, <\/span>M. Cremaschi, A. Crowther, L. der, S. di Lernia, J. F. Doershuk, W. E. Doolittle, K. J. Edwards, <\/span>J. M. Erlandson, D. Evans, A. Fairbairn, P. Faulkner, G. Feinman, R. Fernandes, <\/span>S. M. Fitzpatrick, R. Fyfe, E. Garcea, S. Goldstein, R. C. Goodman, J. Dalpoim Guedes, <\/span>J. Herrmann, P. Hiscock, P. Hommel, K. A. Horsburgh, C. Hritz, J. W. Ives, A. Junno, <\/span>J. G. Kahn, B. Kaufman, C. Kearns, T. R. Kidder, F. Lano\u00eb, D. Lawrence, G. A. Lee, M. J. Levin, <\/span>H. B. Lindskoug, J. A. L\u00f3pez-S\u00e1ez, S. Macrae, R. Marchant, J. M. Marston, S. McClure, <\/span>M. D. McCoy, A. V. Miller, M. Morrison, G. Motuzaite Matuzeviciute, J. M\u00fcller, A. Nayak, <\/span>S. Noerwidi, T. M. Peres, C. E. Peterson, L. Proctor, A. R. Randall, S. Renette, <\/span>G. Robbins Schug, K. Ryzewski, R. Saini, V. Scheinsohn, P. Schmidt, P. Sebillaud, <\/span>O. Seitsonen, I. A. Simpson, A. So\u0142tysiak, R. J. Speakman, R. N. Spengler, M. L. Steffen, <\/span>M. J. Storozum, K. M. Strickland, J. Thompson, T. L. Thurston, S. Ulm, M. C. Ustunkaya, <\/span>M. H. Welker, C. West, P. R. Williams, D. K. Wright, N. Wright, M. Zahir, A. Zerboni, <\/span>E. Beaudoin, S. Munevar Garcia, J. Powell, A. Thornton, J. O. Kaplan, M. J. Gaillard, <\/span>K. Klein Goldewijk, E. Ellis, Archaeological assessment reveals Earth\u2019s early transformation <\/span>through land use. Science 365, 897\u2013902 (2019).<\/span><\/section>\n
56. C. S. Spencer, in Handbook of Evolutionary Research in Archaeology, A. M. Prentiss, <\/span>Ed. (Springer, 2019), pp. 183\u2013213.<\/span><\/section>\n
57. S. J. Gould, N. Eldredge, Punctuated equilibria: The tempo and mode of evolution <\/span>reconsidered. Paleobiology 3, 115\u2013151 (1977).<\/span><\/section>\n
58. P. Turchin, S. Gavrilets, Tempo and mode in cultural macroevolution. Evol. Psychol. 19, <\/span>147470492110666 (2021).  <\/span>Version:0.9 StartHTML:0000000105 EndHTML:0000021658 StartFragment:0000000141 EndFragment:0000021618   59. R. Hassig, Mexico and the Spanish Conquest (Longman, 1994).<\/span><\/section>\n
60. A. A. Alves, Brutality and Benevolence: Human Ethology, Culture, and the Birth of Mexico <\/span>(Greenwood Press, 1996).<\/span><\/section>\n
61. H. Maschner, O. K. Mason, The bow and arrow in northern north america. Evol. Anthropol. <\/span>22, 133\u2013138 (2013).<\/span><\/section>\n
62. P. Hamalainen, The Comanche Empire (Yale Univ. Press, 2008).<\/span><\/section>\n
63. P. Turchin, T. E. Currie, E. A. L. Turner, S. Gavrilets, War, space, and the evolution of old <\/span>world complex societies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 110, 16384\u201316389 (2013).<\/span><\/section>\n
64. J. S. Bennett, Retrodicting the rise, spread, and fall of large-scale states in the old world. <\/span>PLOS ONE 17, e0261816 (2022).<\/span><\/section>\n
65. G. M. Feinman, The emergence of social complexity: Why more than population size <\/span>matters, in Cooperation and Collective Action: Archaeological Perspectives, D. M. Carballo, <\/span>Ed. (University Press of Colorado, 2013), pp. 35\u201356.<\/span><\/section>\n
66. G. P. Murdock, C. Provost, Measurement of cultural complexity. Ethnology 12, 379\u2013392 <\/span>(1973).<\/span><\/section>\n
67. T. E. Currie, R. Mace, Political complexity predicts the spread of ethnolinguistic groups. <\/span>Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 7339\u20137344 (2009).<\/span><\/section>\n
68. C. S. Spencer, E. M. Redmond, Multilevel selection and political evolution in the Valley <\/span>ofOaxaca, 500\u2013100 B.C. J. Anthropol. Archaeol. 20, 195\u2013229 (2001).<\/span><\/section>\n
69. R. Blanton, L. Fargher, Collective Action in the Formation of Pre-Modern States (Springer, <\/span>2008).<\/span><\/section>\n
70. G. M. Feinman, J. Marcus, Archaic States (School of American Research Press, 1998).<\/span><\/section>\n
71. G. P. Murdock, Ethnographic Atlas (University of Pittsburgh Press, 1967).<\/span><\/section>\n
72. G. P. Murdock, D. R. White, Standard cross-cultural sample. Ethnology 8, 329\u2013369 (1969).<\/span><\/section>\n
73. H. T. Wright, Recent research on the origin of the state. Ann. Rev. Anthropol. 6, 379\u2013397 <\/span>(1977).<\/span><\/section>\n
74. M. Weber, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft (Verlag von J. C. B. Mohr, 1922).<\/span><\/section>\n
75. R. L. Carneiro, The Chiefdom: Precursor of the state, in The Transition to Statehood in the <\/span>New World, G. D. Jones, R. D. Kautz, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1981), pp. 37\u201339.<\/span><\/section>\n
76. P. J. Richerson, R. Boyd, Not by Genes Alone: How Culture Transformed Human Evolution <\/span>(University of Chicago Press, 2005).<\/span><\/section>\n
77. H. T. Wright, Early state dynamics as political experiment. J. Anthropol. Res. 62, 305\u2013319 <\/span>(2006).<\/span><\/section>\n
78. T. E. Currie, P. Turchin, J. Bednar, P. J. Richerson, G. Schwesinger, S. Steinmo, R. Wacziarg, <\/span>J. J. Wallis, Evolution of institutions and organizations, in Complexity and Evolution:   <\/span>Toward a New Synthesis for Economics, D. S. Wilson, A. Kirman, Eds. (MIT Press, 2016), <\/span>pp. 199\u2013234.<\/span><\/section>\n
79. T. E. Currie, P. Turchin, S. Gavrilets, History of agriculture and intensity of warfare shaped <\/span>the evolution of large-scale human societies in Afro-Eurasia. SocArXiv Preprint (2019); <\/span>https:\/\/osf.io\/preprints\/socarxiv\/9kmrw\/.<\/span><\/section>\n
80. T. Denham, H. Barton, C. Castillo, A. Crowther, E. Dotte-Sarout, S. A. Florin, J. Pritchard, <\/span>A. Barron, Y. Zhang, D. Q. Fuller, The domestication syndrome in vegetatively propagated <\/span>f<\/span>ield crops. Ann. Bot. 125, 581\u2013597 (2020).<\/span><\/section>\n
81. P. Turchin, T. Currie, C. Collins, J. Levine, O. Oyebamiji, N. R. Edwards, P. B. Holden, <\/span>D. Hoyer, K. Feeney, P. Fran\u00e7ois, H. Whitehouse, An integrative approach to estimating <\/span>productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank. Holocene 31, <\/span>1055\u20131065 (2021).<\/span><\/section>\n
82. M. Olson, The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups (Harvard <\/span>Univ. Press, 1965).<\/span><\/section>\n
83. R. E. Blanton, Cooperation and the moral economy of the marketplace, in Merchants, <\/span>Markets, and Exchange in the Pre-Columbian World, K. G. Hirth, J. Pillsbury, Eds. <\/span>(<\/span>Dumbarton Oaks, 2013), pp. 23\u201348.<\/span><\/section>\n
84. C. Tilly, Coercion, capital, and European states, AD 990\u20131990 (Blackwell, 1990).<\/span><\/section>\n
85. J. Mayshar, O. Moav, Z. Neeman, L. Pascali, Cereals, appropriability, and hierarchy. <\/span>Discussion Paper No. 10742, Centre for Economic Policy Research. (2015).<\/span><\/section>\n
86. P. Boyer, Religion Explained: The Evolutionary Origins of Religious Thought (Basic Books, <\/span>2001).<\/span><\/section>\n
87. R. W. Hood, P. C. Hill, B. Spilka, The Psychology of Religion: An Empirical Approach (The <\/span>G<\/span>uilford Press, ed. 4, 2009).<\/span><\/section>\n
88. R. N. Bellah, Religion in Human Evolution: From the Paleolithic to the Axial Age (Harvard <\/span>Univ. Press, 2011).<\/span><\/section>\n
89. J. Watts, S. J. Greenhill, Q. D. Atkinson, T. E. Currie, J. Bulbulia, R. D. Gray, Broad <\/span>supernatural punishment but not moralizing high gods precede the evolution of political <\/span>complexity in Austronesia. Proc. R. Soc. B 282, 20142556 (2015).<\/span><\/section>\n
90. D. S. Wilson, Darwin’s Cathedral: Evolution, Religion, and The Nature of Society (University <\/span>of Chicago Press, 2002).<\/span><\/section>\n
91. J. M. Bering, The folk psychology ofsouls. Behav. Brain Sci. 29, 453\u2013462 (2006).<\/span><\/section>\n
92. D. Kelemen, Are children \u201cIntuitive Theists\u201d?: Reasoning about purpose and design <\/span>in nature. Psychol. Sci. 15, 295\u2013301 (2004).<\/span><\/section>\n
93. B. Raffield, N. Price, M. Collard, Religious belief and cooperation: A view from Viking-Age <\/span>Scandinavia. Religion Brain Behav. 9, 2\u201322 (2019). <\/span>Version:0.9 StartHTML:0000000105 EndHTML:0000007312 StartFragment:0000000141 EndFragment:0000007272   94. S. A. Nefedov, War and Society (In Russian: Voyna i obschestvo. Faktornyi analiz <\/span>istoricheskogo protsessa) (Territoriya buduschego, 2009).<\/span><\/section>\n
95. R. Drews, The End of the Bronze Age: Changes in Warfare and the Catastrophe ca. 1200 BC <\/span>(Princeton Univ. Press, 1993).<\/span><\/section>\n
96. J. Kim, Elite strategies and the spread of technological innovation: The spread of iron <\/span>in the bronze age societies ofDenmark and Southern Korea. J. Anthropol. Archaeol. 20, <\/span>442\u2013478 (2001).<\/span><\/section>\n
97. P. Turchin, Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical\/Empirical Synthesis (Princeton <\/span>Univ. Press, 2003).<\/span><\/section>\n
98. E. A. Eff, P. W. Routon, Farming and fighting: An empirical analysis of the ecological? <\/span>evolutionary theory of the incidence of warfare. Struct. Dyn. 5, 1\u201333 (2012).<\/span><\/section>\n
99. M. S. Dryer, M. Haspelmath, The World Atlas of Language Structures Online (Max Planck <\/span>Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, 2013).<\/span><\/section>\n
100. R. Kohavi, A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model <\/span>selection. Proc. Int. Joint Conf. Artificial Intell. 2, 1137\u20131143 (1995).<\/span><\/section>\n
101. P. Turchin, R. Brennan, T. Currie, K. Feeney, P. Francois, D. Hoyer, J. Manning, A. Marciniak, <\/span>D. Mullins, A. Palmisano, P. Peregrine, E. A. L. Turner, H. Whitehouse, Seshat: The global <\/span>history databank. Cliodynamics 6, 77\u2013107 (2015).<\/span><\/section>\n
102. P. Fran\u00e7ois, J. G. Manning, H. Whitehouse, R. Brennan, T. Currie, K. Feeney, P. Turchin, <\/span>A macroscope for global history: Seshat Global History Databank, a methodological <\/span>overview. Digital Hum. Quart. 10, 4 (2016).<\/span><\/section>\n
103. S. Hall, C. Moskovitz, M. Pemberton, Understanding Text Recycling: A Guide for Researchers <\/span>(Text Recycling Research Project, 2021).<\/span><\/section>\n
104. F. E. Reed, CENTENNIA for Windows (Clockwork Software Inc., 1996). <\/span><\/section>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n

\uff08\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\u53ef\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52a8<\/strong>\u67e5\u770b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n


<\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u5174\u4ea4\u53c9\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u3001\u8206\u8bba\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u6cbb\u7406\u3001\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ba1\u7406\u7b49\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u793e\u79d1\u8bae\u9898\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u4e30\u5bcc\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5e7f\u6cdb\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u8303\u5f0f\u548c\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4eff\u771f\u3001\u5927\u6570\u636e\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bc6\u5207\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u68b3\u7406\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u7814\u7a76\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u96c6\u667a\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u53d1\u8d77\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u5217\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u3002<\/span>
<\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

\u65b0\u4e00\u5b63\u3010\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a<\/a>\u3011\u7531\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7f57\u5bb6\u5fb7\u6559\u6388\u9886\u8854\uff0c\u5361\u5185\u57fa\u6885\u9686\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u5339\u5179\u5821\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u591a\u4f4d\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u8054\u5408\u53d1\u8d77\uff0c\u81ea2022\u5e746\u670818\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6301\u7eed10-12\u5468\u3002\u672c\u5b63\u8bfb\u4e66\u5c06\u805a\u7126\u8ba8\u8bbaGraph\u3001Embedding\u3001NLP\u3001Modeling\u3001Data collection\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u8ba8\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u3001\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7814\u7a76\u7b49\u8bfe\u9898\u3002\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u8be6\u60c5\u53ca\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u5f0f\u89c1\u6587\u672b\uff0c\u6b22\u8fce\u4ece\u4e8b\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u5bf9\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n


<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/a><\/section>\n
\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a<\/span>
<\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u524d\u6cbf\u65b9\u6cd5\u6574\u5408\uff1a\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u542f\u52a8<\/strong><\/a>
<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n


<\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n

\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n