{"id":36676,"date":"2022-08-21T23:17:02","date_gmt":"2022-08-21T15:17:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=36676"},"modified":"2022-08-21T23:17:02","modified_gmt":"2022-08-21T15:17:02","slug":"%e8%b7%a8%e8%b6%8a%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c%e7%9a%84%e9%97%a8%e6%a7%9b%ef%bc%9a%e7%a4%be%e4%ba%a4%e5%aa%92%e4%bd%93%e4%b8%8a%e7%9a%84%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af%e6%89%a9%e6%95%a3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swarma.org\/?p=36676","title":{"rendered":"\u8de8\u8d8a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff1a\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u5e78\u8fd0\u7684\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u4e2d\u5c42\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e24\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Katz\uff0c1957\uff1bKatz and Lazarsfeld\uff0c1955\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Greenberg\uff0c1964b\uff1bLarsen and Hill\uff0c1954\uff1bMiller\uff0c1945\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Rogers\uff0c1983\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u95e8\u69db\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Granovetter\uff0c1978\uff1bGranovetter and Soong\uff0c1983\uff0c1986\uff0c1988\uff1bValente\uff0c1993\uff0c1995\uff0c1996\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u5df4\u65af\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Bass\uff0c1969\uff0c2004\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Anderson and May\uff0c1992\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u672c\u7ae0\u9996\u5148\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7406\u8bba\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe2-1\u3000\u4e24\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\uff08Katz\uff0c1957\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e24\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u5a92\u4f53\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5e76\u975e\u5b64\u7acb\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u4f20\u9012\u548c\u63a5\u6536\u4fe1\u606f\u65b9\u9762\u5e76\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3002\u610f\u89c1\u9886\u8896\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7528\u6237\u66f4\u52a0\u5173\u6ce8\u5a92\u4f53\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u4ece\u5a92\u4f53\u83b7\u53d6\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u9012\u7ed9\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u53cd\u5e94\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e24\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u4f17\u5a92\u4f53\u5e76\u975e\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u771f\u7a7a\u4e2d\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u5927\u4f17\u4f20\u5a92\u5fc5\u987b\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u9a71\u52a8\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5176\u4ed6\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u6e90\u3001\u6743\u529b\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\uff09<\/span>\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u6216\u901a\u8fc7\u5176\u4ed6\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u5a92\u4ecb\u6548\u679c\u548c\u4eba\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u54ea\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u7528\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6210\u4e3a\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76<\/span>\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\uff09<\/span>\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e8c\u3001\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u5173\u6ce8\u4e00\u7c7b\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u2014\u65b0\u95fb\u3002\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u662f\u65b0\u95fb\u4ece\u65b0\u95fb\u6e90\u6269\u6563\u5230\u53d7\u4f17\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7c73\u52d2\u57281945\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u786e\u7acb\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u79cd\u4f20\u64ad\u6e20\u9053\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4f20\u7edf<\/span>\uff08Miller\uff0c1945\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7c73\u52d2\u9488\u5bf9\u7f57\u65af\u798f\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728143\u540d\u80af\u7279\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b085%\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u901a\u8fc7\u53e3\u53e3\u76f8\u4f20\u5f97\u77e5\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u6269\u6563\u6e20\u9053\u3001\u7d2f\u79ef\u6269\u6563\u66f2\u7ebf\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u6bd4\u8f83\u5a92\u4ecb\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u4eba\u9645\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08Larsen and Hill\uff0c1954\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u65b0\u95fb\u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u4f17\u4f20\u64ad\u5a92\u4ecb\u548c\u4eba\u9645\u6e20\u9053\u6e17\u900f\u5230\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u3002\u4ece\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u662f\u77e5\u6653\u65b0\u95fb\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1b\u4ece\u4e2a\u4eba\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u5173\u6ce8\u4e2a\u4eba\u4f55\u65f6\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u65b0\u95fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1b\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u53d7\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u673a\u6784\u7c7b\u578b\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u89c4\u8303\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u65e2\u53d7\u5230\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u53c8\u53d7\u5230\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e09\u3001\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba\u7740\u91cd\u4e8e\u89c2\u5ff5\u3001\u5b9e\u8df5\u3001\u4ea7\u54c1\u3001\u6280\u672f\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u7b49\u521b\u65b0\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u800c\u6269\u6563\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u5bf9\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3b\u8981\u6d89\u53ca\u56db\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u521b\u65b0\u3001\u4f20\u64ad\u6e20\u9053\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u5c06\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5373\u521b\u65b0\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6210\u5458\u4e4b\u95f4\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u4e9b\u6e20\u9053\u4f20\u64ad<\/span>\uff08Rogers\uff0c2003\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56db\u3001\u5df4\u65af\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u81ea\u4ece1969\u5e74\u5f17\u5170\u514b\u00b7M. \u5df4\u65af<\/span>\uff08Frank M. Bass\uff09<\/span>\u63d0\u51fa\u5df4\u65af\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Bass diffusion model\uff09<\/span>\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8425\u9500\u6587\u732e\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u6570\u91cf\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u53d7\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u542f\u53d1\uff0c\u5df4\u65af\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u5b9a\u6269\u6563\u662f\u7531\u4e24\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\uff1a\u521b\u65b0\u6027\u548c\u6a21\u4eff\u6027<\/span>\uff08Bass\uff0c1969\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u521b\u65b0\u91c7\u7eb3\u8005\u81ea\u53d1\u4f7f\u7528\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u8ddf\u968f\u8005\u4f1a\u6a21\u4eff\u65e9\u671f\u91c7\u7eb3\u8005\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u4ea7\u54c1<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56e0\u6b64\u5df4\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\uff1a\u521b\u65b0\u7cfb\u6570\u548c\u6a21\u4eff\u7cfb\u6570\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u91c7\u7eb3\u8005\u7684\u91c7\u7eb3\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u548c\u5df2\u91c7\u7eb3\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u5448\u7ebf\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5df4\u65af\u57281969\u5e74\u5199\u4f5c\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u201c\u6a21\u4eff\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e92\u52a8\u5bf9\u91c7\u7eb3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u6a21\u4eff\u7cfb\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u8868\u8fbe\u53e3\u5934\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u4eba\u9645\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u67d3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u4e2a\u4f53\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20<\/span>\uff08Bass\uff0c2004\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5df4\u65af\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5df4\u65af\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u6f5c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u4e0e\u521b\u65b0\u548c\u6a21\u4eff\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e94\u3001\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u601d\u60f3\u6839\u6e90\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u5b66\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229<\/span>\uff08Daniel Bernoulli\uff09<\/span>\u57281760\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4ed6\u4e3a\u4e86\u6839\u9664\u5929\u82b1\u800c\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387<\/span>\uff08Bernoulli\uff0c1760\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u76f4\u523020\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u5b66\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08deterministic model\uff09<\/span>\u624d\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u7f57\u65af\u57281911\u5e74\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Ross\uff0c1911\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0cKermack\u548cMcKendarick\u57281927\u5e74\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6269\u6563\u7684\u9608\u503c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5fc5\u987b\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u503c\u624d\u80fd\u4f7f\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u66b4\u53d1<\/span>\uff08Kermack and McKendarick\uff0c1927\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5398\u6e05\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3001\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5f15\u51fa\u91cd\u8981\u6982\u5ff5<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u95e8\u69db\u3001\u518d\u751f\u6570\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e8e\u68c0\u9a8c\u7406\u8bba\u731c\u60f3\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u60c5\u51b5<\/span>\uff08Hethcote\uff0c2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u793e\u4f1a\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u6269\u6563\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u6216\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u91c7\u7eb3\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u672c\u7ae0\u7b80\u8981\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\uff1aSI\u3001SIR\u3001SIS\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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SI\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong>\u662f\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5728SI\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0cSI\u4f20\u67d3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a\u6613\u611f\u548c\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u4f7f\u7528S\u6765\u8868\u793a\u6613\u611f\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528I\u8868\u793a\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u521d\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662fX0\uff0c\u6613\u611f\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662fS0\u3002\u03b2\u8868\u793a\u4f20\u9012\u901f\u7387<\/span>\uff08transmission rate\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5b83\u8868\u793a\u6613\u611f\u4eba\u7fa4\u548c\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u9047\u5e76\u53d1\u751f\u4f20\u67d3\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe2-4\u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5904\u4e8e\u6613\u611f\u67d3\u548c\u611f\u67d3\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u6bd4\u4f8b\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u5728\u611f\u67d3\u521d\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u6b64\u540e\u7ecf\u5386\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u968f\u7740\u6613\u611f\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u800c\u9971\u548c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u6a21\u62df\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe2-4\u3000SI \u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u65af\u8c1b\u589e\u957f\u66f2\u7ebf<\/span><\/section>\n

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SI\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u4eba\u5c06\u4e00\u76f4\u5177\u6709\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5c31\u591a\u6570\u75be\u75c5\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u514d\u75ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f1a\u4e0e\u75be\u75c5\u4f5c\u6597\u4e89\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u611f\u67d3\u4e00\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u540e\u5c31\u4f1a\u6062\u590d\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528R\u8868\u793a\u5eb7\u590d\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u03b3\u8868\u793a\u79fb\u9664\u7387\u6216\u5eb7\u590d\u7387\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf91\/\u03b3\u66f4\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u5e73\u5747\u611f\u67d3\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u5f53\u8003\u8651\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u7684\u5eb7\u590d\u72b6\u6001\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06SI\u6a21\u578b\u62d3\u5c55\u4e3aSIR\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u7528\u6570\u503c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9SIR\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u5982\u56fe2-5\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u4e09\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u5904\u4e8e\u6613\u611f\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u548c\u6062\u590d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe2-5\u3000SIR\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5bf9SI\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6269\u5c55\u662f\u5141\u8bb8\u518d\u6b21\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u5eb7\u590d\u540e\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u75be\u75c5\u6ca1\u6709\u514d\u75ab\u529b\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u6b21\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u6700\u80fd\u4f53\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u662fSIS\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u3002\u5b83\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\uff1a\u6613\u611f\u67d3\u8005S\u548c\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u8005I\uff0c\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6062\u590d\u540e\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6982\u7387\u518d\u6b21\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u3002\u5982\u56fe2-6\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u4e24\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u5904\u4e8e\u6613\u611f\u67d3\u548c\u611f\u67d3\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56fe2-6\u3000SIS\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u516d\u3001\u95e8\u69db\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u95e8\u69db\u6a21\u578b\u4f7f\u5f97\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u8f6c\u5411\u6269\u6563\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u4e3a\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8d44\u6e90\u3002\u95e8\u69db\u5df2\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4eba\u9645\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5c45\u4f4f\u9694\u79bb<\/span>\uff08Granovetter and Soong\uff0c1988\uff1bSchelling\uff0c1971\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u6c89\u9ed8\u7684\u87ba\u65cb<\/span>\uff08Glynn and Park\uff0c1997\uff1bGranovetter and Soong\uff0c1988\uff1bKrassa\uff0c1988\uff09<\/span>\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u9700\u6c42<\/span>\uff08Granovetter and Soong\uff0c1986\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563<\/span>\uff08Valente\uff0c1996\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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1978\u5e74\u683c\u5170\u8bfa\u7ef4\u7279\u5728\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u4ecb\u7ecd\u95e8\u69db\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u95e8\u69db\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u505a\u51fa\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u505a\u51fa\u76f8\u540c\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u6216\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u5468\u56f4\u4eba\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9ad8\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u95e8\u69db\u503c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u624d\u4f1a\u613f\u610f\u53c2\u4e0e\u5176\u4e2d<\/strong>\u3002\u884c\u52a8\u5c31\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u6210\u672c\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e2a\u4f53\u9700\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u884c\u52a8\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0d\u5c0f\u4e8e\u6210\u672c\u6216\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


<\/p>\n

\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u683c\u5170\u8bfa\u7ef4\u7279\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u753110\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u5206\u522b\u4e3a0\u30011\u30011\u30014\u30014\u30014\u30015\u30017\u30018\u548c9\u3002\u95e8\u69db\u662f0\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u4e0d\u88ab\u4ed6\u4eba\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5c31\u4e3b\u52a8\u53c2\u4e0e\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u6210\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u95e8\u69db\u4e3a1\u7684\u4eba\u8ddf\u7740\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u81ea\u53d1\u5730\u53c2\u4e0e\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5171\u6709\u4e09\u4eba\u53c2\u4e0e\u96c6\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u6700\u5c0f\u503c\u662f4\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u53c2\u4e0e\u8fd9\u9879\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u56e0\u800c\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u57283\u4eba\u88ab\u201c\u611f\u67d3\u201d\u540e\uff0c\u6269\u6563\u505c\u6b62\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u95e8\u69db\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u6269\u6563\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u4e2a\u4f53\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u521b\u65b0\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u5f88\u4f4e\u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u5c31\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u6269\u6563\u3002\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u5bf9\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u4eba\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u6269\u6563\u540e\u4ed6\u4eec\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002\u95e8\u69db\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5c06\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4fe1\u606f\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u6269\u6563\u3002\u5982\u679c\u95e8\u69db\u662f\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\uff0c\u5219\u7d2f\u79ef\u6269\u6563\u66f2\u7ebf\u5e94\u8be5\u662fS\u5f62\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u95e8\u69db\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u66f2\u7ebf\u5de6\u53f3\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u504f\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u5f53\u5747\u503c\u5927\u4e8e\u4f17\u6570\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u79f0\u4e3a\u6b63\u504f\u6001<\/span>\uff08\u53f3\u504f\u5206\u5e03\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u95e8\u69db\u6bd4\u8f83\u5c0f\uff0c\u6269\u6563\u4f1a\u8f83\u65e9\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6269\u6563\u89c4\u6a21\u4f1a\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5927\uff1b\u5f53\u5747\u503c\u5c0f\u4e8e\u4f17\u6570\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d1f\u504f\u6001<\/span>\uff08\u5de6\u504f\u5206\u5e03\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u95e8\u69db\u6bd4\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u6269\u6563\u8f83\u665a\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6269\u6563\u89c4\u6a21\u4e5f\u4f1a\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u74e6\u4f26\u7279\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5206\u6790\u7f51\u7edc\u95e8\u69db\u5bf9\u4e8e\u521b\u65b0\u6269\u6563\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u74e6\u8328\u57282002\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u9898\u4e3a\u201c\u968f\u673a\u7f51\u7edc\u5168\u5c40\u7ea7\u8054\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u6a21\u578b\u201d\uff08\u201cA simple model of global cascades on random networks\u201d\uff09\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u95e8\u69db\u7684Watts\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n


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\u7efc\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u7ae0\u7b80\u8981\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb60\u591a\u5e74\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u88682-1\u548c\u88682-2\u7b80\u8981\u5730\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8282 <\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\uff1a\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b <\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab\u7f51\u7ad9\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u65b0\u7279\u70b9\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u65b0\u7279\u70b9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63d0\u51fa\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b\u6dfb\u52a0\u65b0\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8282\u5c06\u8bf4\u660e\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u8981\u7279\u70b9\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e00\u3001\u4ece\u7ebf\u4e0b\u5230\u7ebf\u4e0a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7f51\u7edc\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5174\u8d77\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u8c03\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u610f\u4e49<\/span>\uff08Castellano et al.\uff0c2009\uff1bCastells\uff0c2007\uff1bLerman and Ghosh\uff0c2010\uff1bShumate\uff0c2010\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u805a\u5408\u5668\u3001\u641c\u7d22\u5f15\u64ce\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u63a8\u8350\u7b49\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u6280\u672f\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u793e\u4f1a\u5a92\u4f53\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab\u7f51\u7ad9\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u5411\u53c2\u4e0e\u6027\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u81ea\u53d1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6210\u4e3a\u63a8\u52a8\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u5173\u952e\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u63a8\u52a8\u751a\u81f3\u53d8\u9769\u4e86\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e3b\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u65b0\u95fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6355\u6349\u5c0f\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/span>\uff08Miller\uff0c1945\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u91c7\u7528\u8c03\u67e5\u6216\u8bbf\u8c08\u65b9\u5f0f\u6240\u6536\u96c6\u5230\u7684\u7528\u6237\u81ea\u6211\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6570\u636e\u6536\u96c6\u65f6\u95f4\u6ede\u540e\u4e8e\u65b0\u95fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u5f80\u5f80\u5df2\u7ecf\u5fd8\u8bb0\u4e86\u83b7\u77e5\u65b0\u95fb\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u6e20\u9053\uff1b\u800c\u4e14\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u6848\u4f8b\u6570\u91cf\u8fd8\u662f\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u90fd\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u3002\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u4e0a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u6bcf\u65f6\u6bcf\u523b\u90fd\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u56e0\u800c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u968f\u65f6\u4ece\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u83b7\u53d6\u7528\u6237\u5206\u4eab\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u75d5\u8ff9\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u65f6\u95f4\u6ede\u540e\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u9057\u5fd8\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u6570\u636e\u6240\u5305\u542b\u7684\u7528\u6237\u6570\u91cf\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u9897\u7c92\u5ea6\u66f4\u7ec6\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6570\u5b57\u5a92\u4ecb\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u7528\u6237\u884c\u4e3a\u6570\u636e\u5f80\u5f80\u5177\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6233\u548c\u4e92\u52a8\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6269\u6563\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6784\u5efa\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6269\u6563\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5e76\u636e\u6b64\u63a8\u65ad\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u95e8\u69db\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u867d\u7136\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u91ca\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u5e73\u53f0\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3b\u52a8\u5206\u4eab\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u6587\u732e\u591a\u628a\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f20\u67d3\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/span>\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u793e\u4f1a\u4f20\u67d3\uff09\uff08Bakshy et al.\uff0c2009\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u91c7\u7528\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u5982SIR\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790<\/span>\uff08Anderson and May\uff0c1992\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u75c5\u6bd2\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7167\u642c\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u53ea\u662f\u6cdb\u6cdb\u5730\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u4eba\u9645\u4f5c\u7528<\/span>\uff08Lerman and Ghosh\uff0c2010\uff1bShao et al.\uff0c2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5728\u63a8\u7279\u4e0a\u8c01\u5bf9\u8c01\u8bf4\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4e24\u7ea7\u4f20\u64ad\u7406\u8bba\u4f9d\u7136\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u63a8\u7279\u4e0a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563<\/span>\uff08Wu et al.\uff0c2011\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u5148\u4ece\u5927\u4f17\u5a92\u4f53\u6d41\u5411\u610f\u89c1\u9886\u8896\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u4ece\u610f\u89c1\u9886\u8896\u6d41\u5411\u5927\u4f17<\/span>\uff08Kadushin\uff0c2006\uff1bLazarsfeld et al.\uff0c1944\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u672a\u5145\u5206\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u9645\u4f5c\u7528\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e8c\u3001\u4ece\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u5206\u4eab<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4fe1\u606f\u5206\u4eab\u662f\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fc5\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u624d\u80fd\u6269\u6563\u5230\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u53d7\u4f17\u3002\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab\u7f51\u7ad9\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u5206\u4eab\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u534f\u540c\u8fc7\u6ee4\u3002\u79bb\u5f00\u4e86\u4fe1\u606f\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u5c06\u4f1a\u88ab\u9501\u5b9a\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u8005\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u7f51\u7edc\u5185\u90e8\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6269\u6563\u51fa\u53bb\u3002\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u77e5\u60c5\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u77e5\u9053\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4eba\uff09<\/span>\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u8005<\/span>\uff08\u5206\u4eab\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4eba\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u4e0e\u5148\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0cLarsen\u548cHill<\/span>\uff081954\uff09<\/span>\u5c31\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u65b0\u95fb\u77e5\u60c5\u8005\u548c\u65b0\u95fb\u6269\u6563\u8005\u3002\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u77e5\u60c5\u8005\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u8005\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4fe1\u606f\u5206\u4eab\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63a8\u52a8\u7f51\u7edc\u516c\u6c11\u65b0\u95fb\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u7f51\u7edc\u516c\u6c11\u65b0\u95fb\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u57fa\u4e8e\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u535a\u5ba2\u3001\u7167\u7247\u5206\u4eab\u548c\u89c6\u9891\u5206\u4eab\u3001\u53d1\u5e03\u76ee\u51fb\u8005\u5bf9\u65b0\u95fb\u73b0\u573a\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u516c\u6c11\u65b0\u95fb\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u4e89\u8bae<\/span>\uff08Lasica\uff0c2003\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u516c\u6c11\u65b0\u95fb\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u975e\u8981\u626e\u6f14\u5185\u5bb9\u521b\u9020\u8005\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u8f6c\u8f7d\u3001\u94fe\u63a5\u3001\u6807\u8bb0\u3001\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3001\u4fee\u6539\u6216\u8bc4\u8bba\u7531\u5176\u4ed6\u7528\u6237\u6216\u65b0\u95fb\u5a92\u4f53\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e94\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u516c\u6c11\u65b0\u95fb<\/span>\uff08Goode\uff0c2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u65b0\u95fb\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u65b0\u95fb\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u53c2\u4e0e\u516c\u6c11\u65b0\u95fb\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span>\uff08Bowman and Willis\uff0c2003\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e09\u3001\u4ece\u4e2a\u4eba\u5230\u7f51\u7edc<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u7ebf\u6027\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u5f0f\u5728\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u65e5\u76ca\u660e\u663e\u3002\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6a21\u578b\u5f80\u5f80\u90fd\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cLasswell<\/span>\uff081948\uff09<\/span>\u76845W\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u9999\u519c\u548c\u97e6\u5f17\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08Shannon and Weaver\uff0c1949\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4ece\u53d7\u4f17\u5230\u5927\u4f17\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u3001\u53d7\u4f17\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8<\/span>\uff08Rogers and Kincaid\uff0c1981\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u3001\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u3001\u4e92\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c<\/span>\uff08Kincaid\uff0c1979\uff1bRogers and Kincaid\uff0c1981\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u6355\u6349\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f20\u64ad\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4f20\u64ad\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f20\u64ad\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4f20\u64ad\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u3002\u4f20\u64ad\u7f51\u7edc\u7531\u76f8\u4e92\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u901a\u8fc7\u4fe1\u606f\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u8fde\u63a5\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u7f51\u7edc\u4fe1\u606f\u6d41\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790<\/span>\uff08Rogers\uff0c2003\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u6293\u4f4f\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u7279\u70b9<\/span>\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u4e2d\u89c2\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u793e\u533a\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u5fae\u89c2\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u8fde\u8fb9\u548c\u8282\u70b9\u5c5e\u6027\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7f51\u7edc\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e3a\u4f20\u64ad\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u548c\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4ece\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u5f53\u4e2d\u53d1\u5c55\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08\u5982\u6307\u6570\u968f\u673a\u56fe\u6a21\u578b\uff09<\/span>\u4e5f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5b8c\u5584\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5f00\u59cb\u63a8\u52a8\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u8bae\u7a0b\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u8bae\u7a0b\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u7f51\u7edc\u8bae\u7a0b\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7406\u8bba<\/span>\uff08Guo\uff0c2012\uff1bGuo and McCombs\uff0c2016\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u56db\u3001\u4ece\u4fe1\u606f\u5230\u6ce8\u610f\u529b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5206\u914d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u8de8\u8d8a\u4fe1\u606f\u6d41\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6d41\u52a8\u662f\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\u3002\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u70b9\u51fb\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc<\/span>\uff08clickstream network\uff09<\/span>\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u70b9\u51fb\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u4fe1\u606f\u8282\u70b9\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u70b9\u51fb\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u8282\u70b9\u8868\u793a\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u8fde\u63a5\u8868\u793a\u65b0\u95fb\u6545\u4e8b\u8282\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u6d41\u52a8<\/span>\uff08Wang et al.\uff0c2016\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u8282\u70b9\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u8868\u793a\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u70b9\u51fb\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u6784\u67b6\u8868\u660e\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6cbf\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u70b9\u51fb\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6d41\u52a8\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6d41\u52a8\u7f51\u7edc\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u8f6c\u53d1\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u8bc4\u8bba\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u70b9\u8d5e\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u4ece\u66f4\u5e7f\u4e49\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u5206\u6790\u7684\u8303\u7574\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5728\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u5b66\u8005\u5e94\u5c06\u76ee\u5149\u4ece\u4fe1\u606f\u8f6c\u5411\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u8fc7\u8f7d\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5374\u5f88\u6709\u9650\u3002\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6e90\u4e8e\u7a00\u7f3a\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4eba\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u719f\u6089\u4e86\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201d\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u4eca\u4fe1\u606f\u5e76\u4e0d\u77ed\u7f3a\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4eba\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u662f\u4f9b\u4e0d\u5e94\u6c42\u7684\u5546\u54c1<\/span>\uff08Goldhaber\uff0c1997\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u6709\u66f4\u7ec6\u81f4\u7684\u9610\u8ff0\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cDavenport\u548cBeck<\/span>\uff082001\uff09<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u540e\u5de5\u4e1a\u793e\u4f1a\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u6bd4\u94f6\u884c\u5b58\u6b3e\u66f4\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u8109\u7edc\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6570\u5b57\u5a92\u4ecb\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u662f\u516c\u4f17\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4fe1\u606f<\/span>\uff08Webster\uff0c2011\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5982\u679c\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5982\u4f55\u5851\u9020\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u5c06\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7684\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u4fe1\u606f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u66f4\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8bba\u8bc1\uff0c\u4ece\u4fe1\u606f\u5230\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u8f6c\u53d8\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e94\u3001\u4ece\u5185\u5bb9\u5230\u53d9\u4e8b<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

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\u4e0e\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u601d\u8003\u6269\u6563\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u8109\u7edc\u662f\u201c\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u201d\u3002\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e0c\u52d2<\/span>\uff08Robert Shiller\uff09<\/span>\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\u2014\u2014\u300a\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b<\/span>\uff08Narrative Economics<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5e0c\u52d2\u6cbf\u88ad\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u5173\u4e8e\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u5143\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6307\u51fa\u975e\u7406\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53d9\u4e8b\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f20\u64ad\u624d\u6b63\u662f\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u4ed6\u6240\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5bf9\u91cd\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u8bb2\u8ff0\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5173\u6ce8\u5177\u6709\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u7279\u6027\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5386\u53f2\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u4e00\u8fde\u4e32\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f53\u4e2d\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u50cf\u75c5\u6bd2\u4e00\u822c\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u5728\u300a\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u91c7\u7528\u8c37\u6b4c\u56fe\u4e66\u6570\u636e\u6765\u5c55\u73b0\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002\u5e0c\u52d2\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5185\u5bb9\u5206\u6790\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u5e76\u63d0\u53d6\u53d9\u4e8b\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u53d9\u4e8b\u5206\u89e3\u4e3a\u65e0\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u3001\u795e\u79d8\u53d9\u4e8b\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d4b\u6743\u53d9\u4e8b\u3001\u53c2\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u53d9\u4e8b\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u6587\u5316\u53d9\u4e8b\u4e94\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762<\/span>\uff08Shiller\uff0c2020\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5728\u5206\u6790\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u65b0\u95fb\u7b49\u4fe1\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u67d0\u79cd\u53d9\u4e8b\u7684\u7247\u6bb5\uff0c\u800c\u53d9\u4e8b\u5bf9\u5e94\u7740\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u8574\u542b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u548c\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6d41\u52a8\u80cc\u540e\u662f\u53d9\u4e8b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u4e89\u593a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u4e2d\u5d4c\u5165\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u89e6\u53ca\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u516c\u5171\u8bae\u9898\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u6001\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7126\u8651\uff0c\u5c31\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6269\u6563\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53d9\u4e8b\u5f53\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u9053\u5fb7\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0e\u65f6\u4ee3\u7cbe\u795e\u3001\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u89c4\u8303\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u624d\u80fd\u6269\u6563\u51fa\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7efc\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u7ae0\u7b80\u8981\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e2d\u5c42\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bae\u7a0b\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u52fe\u8fde\u65b0\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u5728\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u95f4\u642d\u5efa\u65b0\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u7ebf\u7d22\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u7ae0\u642d\u5efa\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u9700\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u4f55\u8ba4\u8bc6\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u5b58\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb<\/span>\uff08Griffin\uff0c2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e14\u7f51\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u770b\u6e05\u695a\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0e\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5e2e\u52a9\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u201c\u6253\u635e\u201d\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u65b0\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u65b0\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u900f\u955c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u9065\u8fdc\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u6216\u8005\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u5730\u56fe\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u73b0\u5728\u7ad9\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u3001\u524d\u8fdb\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u4ee5\u53ca\u8981\u540c\u4ec0\u4e48\u7406\u8bba\u6216\u5b66\u6d3e\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8fd9\u79cd\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u7cbe\u5f69\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u5524\u9192\u6c89\u9189\u4e8e\u7406\u8bba\u8ff7\u96fe\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u90fd\u662f\u53c2\u5929\u5927\u6811\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u662f\u704c\u6728\u3001\u85e4\u8513\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u5c0f\u8349\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u68f5\u6811\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u957f\u7684\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u3002\u5fc5\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u8d70\u5411\u6b7b\u4ea1\u548c\u88ab\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ef0\u8d56\u5927\u6811\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u7518\u5fc3\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c<\/span>\uff08Ajzen\uff0c2015\uff1bSniehotta et al.\uff0c2014\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u5c06\u7406\u8bba\u770b\u4f5c\u4e00\u68f5\u6811\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u55bb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53bb\u770b\u8bba\u6587\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5f15\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u6811\u72b6\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cWu\u7b49<\/span>\uff082019\uff09<\/span>\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0e\u98a0\u8986\u6027\u521b\u65b0\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u65f6\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u636e\u5f15\u6587\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6765\u8bc6\u522b\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u98a0\u8986\u6027\u521b\u65b0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u53ef\u4ee5\u906e\u853d\u524d\u4eba\u7684\u5149\u8292\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u540e\u6765\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u90fd\u5f15\u7528\u5b83\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u66f4\u65e9\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5c31\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u98a0\u8986\u6027\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u65e5\u98df\u4e00\u6837\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u65e0\u6cd5\u906e\u853d\u524d\u4eba\u7684\u5149\u8292\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5c31\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5f15\u7528\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u4e3a\u4e00\u68f5\u6811\u3002\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6784\u6210\u6811\u7684\u6839\u7cfb\uff1b\u98a0\u8986\u6027\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u53ef\u4ee5\u751f\u957f\u51fa\u6811\u7684\u4e3b\u5e72\uff1b\u540e\u6765\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u6784\u6210\u6811\u7684\u679d\u53f6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u540e\u6765\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u8df3\u8fc7\u67d0\u8bba\u6587\u76f4\u63a5\u53bb\u5f15\u7528\u66f4\u65e9\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6811\u7684\u6839\u7cfb\u5c31\u4f1a\u5f02\u5e38\u8302\u76db\uff0c\u800c\u6811\u5e72\u5c31\u4f1a\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f31\u5c0f\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u662fWatson\u548cCrick 1953\u5e74\u5728\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b<\/span>\uff08Nature<\/em>\uff09<\/span>\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u5173\u4e8eDNA\u53cc\u87ba\u65cb\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u8bba\u6587<\/span>\uff08Watson and Crick\uff0c1953\uff09<\/span>\u30022019\u5e74\uff0c\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u7f51\u7ad9\u5236\u4f5c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u9875\u9762\uff0c\u540d\u4e3a\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7edc\uff1a\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e00\u767e\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u201d<\/span>\uff08A network of science\uff1a150 years of Nature papers\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u5c06150\u5e74\u7684\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5171\u5f15\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u51fa\u6765<\/span>\uff08Baker\uff0c2019\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u662f\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e24\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u88ab\u540c\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u6240\u5f15\u7528\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u6761\u8fde\u63a5\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2d\u90e8\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8fd8\u5c06\u5176\u5f15\u7528\u6811\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u3002\u4eceWatson\u4e0eCrick\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u5f15\u7528\u6811\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e05\u6670\u5730\u770b\u5230\u4eceDNA\u53cc\u87ba\u65cb\u7ed3\u6784\u7814\u7a76\u5ef6\u4f38\u51fa\u4e00\u68f5\u8301\u58ee\u7684\u5927\u6811\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6cbf\u7740\u8fd9\u4e00\u601d\u8def\u7565\u4f5c\u5ef6\u4f38\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u9677\u5165\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e1b\u6797\u3002\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5f53\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u89c6\u89d2\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8109\u7edc\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u591a\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5982\u70ed\u5e26\u96e8\u6797\u91cc\u7684\u6811\u6728\u4e00\u822c\u906e\u5929\u853d\u65e5\uff0c\u8ba9\u8eab\u5904\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u7406\u6027\u7684\u9633\u5149\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b11\u8bdd\u8bf4\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6bd4\u6d3b\u7740\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u8fd8\u591a\u3002\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0cKoontz<\/span>\uff081961\uff09<\/span>\u5c31\u6307\u51fa\u7ba1\u7406\u7406\u8bba\u9677\u5165\u7406\u8bba\u6d41\u6d3e\u76d8\u6839\u9519\u8282\u7684\u4e1b\u6797\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u7406\u8bba\u4f17\u8bf4\u7eb7\u7ead\uff0c\u83ab\u8877\u4e00\u662f\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4f46\u6050\u6015\u90fd\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u5730\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u7406\u8bba\u4e1b\u6797\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c11<\/span>\uff08\u5176\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u575a\u6301\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6570\u91cf\u8fd8\u6bd4\u8f83\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd8\u5904\u4e8e\u8ffd\u6c42\u7406\u8bba\u5efa\u6784\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u4f46\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u666e\u904d\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u8a00\u5f52\u6b63\u4f20\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6269\u6563\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u9886\u519b\u4eba\u7269\u74e6\u8328\u66fe\u4e13\u95e8\u6307\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u7684\u77db\u76fe<\/span>\uff08Watts\uff0c2011\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Bikhchandani\u7b49\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b<\/span>\uff08social-learning model\uff09<\/span>\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u683c\u5170\u8bfa\u7ef4\u7279\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u6269\u6563\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u89e3\u91ca<\/span>\uff08Bikhchandani et al.\uff0c1992\uff1bGranovetter\uff0c1978\uff09<\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u4e8c\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4f53\u89c2\u5bdf\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u5374\u5b58\u5728\u5929\u58e4\u4e4b\u522b\u3002\u95e8\u69db\u6a21\u578b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u987a\u5e8f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u6269\u6563\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u800c\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e60\u7406\u8bba\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\u987a\u5e8f\u65e0\u5173\u5b8f\u65e8<\/span>\uff08Watts and Dodds\uff0c2009\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u6b63\u5982\u672c\u7ae0\u6240\u5c55\u793a\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7406\u8bba\u8109\u7edc\u7684\u6269\u6563\u7406\u8bba\u5df2\u7ecf\u5171\u5b58\u4e86\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u5374\u5e76\u672a\u88ab\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u3002Watts<\/span>\uff082017\uff09<\/span>\u8ba4\u4e3a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8fdc\u6bd4\u4eba\u4eec\u60f3\u7684\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u4f9d\u8d56\u5e38\u8bc6<\/span>\uff08common sense\uff09<\/span>\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4f3c\u4e4e\u66f4\u52a0\u5728\u610f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u8bb2\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6548\u679c\u3002Watts<\/span>\uff082014\uff0c2017\uff09<\/span>\u4e3b\u5f20\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u5728\u597d\u6545\u4e8b\u548c\u597d\u7406\u8bba\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u6289\u62e9\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5e94\u5f53\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u91cd\u89c6\u91c7\u7528\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4e00\u5473\u6267\u7740\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

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\u738b\u6210\u519b<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u5357\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u65b0\u95fb\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u9662\u526f\u6559\u6388\u3001\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5bfc\u5e08\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u517c\u4efb\u9999\u6e2f\u57ce\u5e02\u5927\u5b66\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6316\u6398\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7814\u7a76\u5458\uff1b\u66fe\u4efb\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b0\u95fb\u53f2\u5b66\u4f1a\u8ba1\u7b97\u4f20\u64ad\u5b66\u4e13\u59d4\u4f1a\u79d8\u4e66\u957f\uff082018-2020\uff09\u3002\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u91c7\u7528\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u89c6\u89d2\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f20\u64ad\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5185\u5bb9\u5305\u62ec\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u3001\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6d41\u52a8\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002\u8c46\u74e3\u7528\u6237\u540d\u201c\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u5927\u738b\u201d\u3002<\/span>
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\u96c6\u667a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e3b\u9875\uff1ahttps:\/\/pattern.swarma.org\/user\/129<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e3b\u9875\uff1ahttps:\/\/chengjunwang.com\/<\/span><\/section>\n


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\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u738b\u6210\u519b<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u8ba1\u7b97\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u8bfb\u4e66\u4f1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u89c1\uff1a<\/span>
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\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n